Archive through October 12, 2005

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arthur_gibson

Member

Post Number: 108
Registered: 01-2005

Rating:
Votes: 1


Saturday, October 08, 2005 - 07:55 am:

See what I mean? jimdean loses $30K, put loses $200K and all you can do is tell them to read Hull and other rubbish and try again!

"Trailing stops", "puts", "calls", "options" etc is all b*ll*x - I don't use any of that crap and those on this forum who know me (and there are some) know that my methods do succeed.

Trading is like joining a cult religion like The Mormons or Jehovah’s Witnesses. You all try to kid yourselves that it works, but the reality is that it don't.

The big banks, insurance companies, super companies, hedge funds and all the similar institutions abroad all have dozens of kids in their mid twenties, who are a hundred times smarter than we are, earning millions of dollars commission, sitting in front of screens and equipment that cost millions of dollars, with all the researcher workers they need scanning the news sitting next to them and they are trading billions of dollars of Australian shares. That’s what we are up against. When a piece of news flows in, they analyse it within fifteen seconds and buy or sell accordingly. How can you beat that?

If all the people who wrote books and ran web sites on trading knew what they were doing, they would NOT be writing books and running web sites! By telling you their secrets they would be ruining their own trades. If they knew what they were doing, they would go and get a job with a financial institution, or, like me, they would trade their own money and keep their mouths shut so that others don’t thin their margins by following their methods.

"Trailing stops", "puts", "calls", "options" etc are NOT investing. "Trailing stops" can be especially destructive to your wealth. I never use them or any other form of mechanical buying or selling. It’s hard enough to buy and sell correctly when you are doing it yourself. If you leave the computer to do it, you are in real trouble. Trading is a dangerous game. Don’t do it. Invest - yes, trade - no, drugs - no, convert to Islam - no, mother in laws - no, higher taxes – no, vote ALP – no, – get the message?

Arthur Gibson

tony_m

Member

Post Number: 374
Registered: 01-2003

Rating:
Votes: 2


Saturday, October 08, 2005 - 09:45 am:

Arthur, never read such a pile of hogwash in my life, what's eating you. I am a retired weekly medium/long term trend trader/investor, conservative and risk averse, who does live totally off my market earnings and have done so now for 5 years.

I use a simple system with manual stops for entry and exits although I occasionally use automated conditional buy orders. I just take chunks out of established trends, a la Stan Weinstein, and mostly get it right but occasionally wrong.

I dont know what your system is and dont care frankly but dont arbitrarily dismiss any one elses either when you have no idea of what other people do or their success rates. Obviously in your mind I must be a total nutcase but the 55% trading return I had in the last financial year suggests otherwise.

Tony_M

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eblode

Member

Post Number: 141
Registered: 11-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Saturday, October 08, 2005 - 10:00 am:

Arthur m'boy,
You said " If all the people who wrote books and ran web sites on trading knew what they were doing they would NOT be writing books and being on web sites". Does this include your Guru Bill McClaren??
Keep it up Arthur cuz no one is falling asleep on this thread.
Eugenio

arthur_gibson

Member

Post Number: 109
Registered: 01-2005

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Saturday, October 08, 2005 - 10:41 am:

tony m:

You are doing it right. You are doing it like me. I agree with you 100%.

It's these other pratts who read Hull and think that they are going to make money out of thin air that I am arguing with. Lambs to the slaughter, every one of them.

I suppose the core of what I am saying is that share trading is only for the REALLY smart people. As 99.999% of people are not REALLY smart, my best advice to everyone is DON'T trade shares. If you ARE REALLY smart, like tony m, you will ignore my advice, like I ignore my own advice and you will grow rich.

Keep it up tony m and the other REALLY smart posters here. Everyone else, don't even think about it. They should buy the banks and forget about trading for the rest of their lives, or they will lose their shirts.

Why does McLaren run a web site? Because he is a fanatic. Studying the movement of the indexes is an end in itself to him - it matters more than money. But don't ask him to recommend a share, because that might not be his strength.

McLaren is a specialist; subscribe to his daily report and read his stuff; its tax deductible. Bill is my hero.

I just hope that I did the right thing buying TCL yesterday. I liked their traffic figures that came out in the afternoon. If you can buy good news on a bad day you can get a strong rebound the following day when the clouds have cleared and people realise that they missed the good news and start buying the stock.

The more I think about yesterday and the US action overnight, the more I think that we hit the bottom on Friday. That was a "fear capitulation" fall and they usually hit the bottom immediately the fear leaves the market. They don't go slowly down over a longer time frame. I suspect that the fear has gone and Monday could be a strong move up. Our P/Es adjusted back to "fair value" but they did it quicker than expected. But right now everything seems priced about right to me. I'll think about it some more and give you my conclusions before Sunday evening. I going to try my hardest to call the bottom to this for you all, with the precision of an Israeli air strike.

Arthur Gibson

thommo78

Member

Post Number: 67
Registered: 05-2005

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Saturday, October 08, 2005 - 11:35 am:

arthur you say .."Buy CBA first thing Monday morning and then don’t give it another thought until you retire"..

i reckon the banks are overvalued and am steering well clear for now:

- high expectations built into valuations
- more players in the industry competing for the same dollar .. increasing rates on deposits, reducing rates on loans .. more competition eroding margins
- housing and personal lending slowing?
- less leverage than other sectors to the growing global economy.
- provisioning for bad loans withing the industry at historic lows which will make them particularly sensitive to any economic downturn.

surely there are sectors with better profit performance and rosier outlooks?

archer

Member

Post Number: 1017
Registered: 11-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Saturday, October 08, 2005 - 11:40 am:

Arthur
you are going to make us all a small fortune,but only if we start with a large one
Heres a trick for ya Art,just call for a bottom every day
eventually you will be right

hilarius

Member

Post Number: 1160
Registered: 04-2004

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Saturday, October 08, 2005 - 12:03 pm:

Arthur

Have you ever considered the priesthood?

Your skills are wasted on mere money

A Bishop's mitre awaits you at the very least

Hilarius

I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

vermante

Member

Post Number: 458
Registered: 11-2002

Rating:
Votes: 4


Saturday, October 08, 2005 - 12:55 pm:

The party is not over yet for the bears . This market needs a healthy correction prior to the XMAS rally . The trend line beckons.

Cheers

Vermante

eblode

Member

Post Number: 143
Registered: 11-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Saturday, October 08, 2005 - 12:57 pm:

Arthur m'boy,
How could you buy into TCL with the present high fuel costs and the public trying to avoid driving as much. Surely you are not serious. My call would of been on CAB. Compare their charts, it says it all.
I'll be the first to say sorry if TCL goes north in a hurry.
Eugenio

jimdene

Member

Post Number: 23
Registered: 07-2005

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Saturday, October 08, 2005 - 02:18 pm:

Arthur Gibson, what a wag, always good for a laugh even when joking. Unfortunately I couldn't take you up on your offer of buying your CBA shares as I don't know if you a trader or just post on this forum because there is an audience to be had

deanrosario

Member

Post Number: 893
Registered: 11-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Saturday, October 08, 2005 - 02:23 pm:

Arthur you admitted last week that you "only trade for fun".

So, why should anyone take anything you say about trading seriously?

One thing (well, one of many things) puzzles me. You pay $40 per month to subscribe to a newsletter produced by Bill MacLaren.

Surely if Bill were any good, he would be quietly trading and making a fortune, rather than wasting his time maintaining a website and selling his advice for $40 per month?

"It's not whether you're right or wrong that's important, but how much money you make when you're right and how much you lose when you're wrong." George Soros

jimdene

Member

Post Number: 24
Registered: 07-2005

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Saturday, October 08, 2005 - 03:25 pm:

Arthur how can you say that any of us fools entering the market on May 18th this year could not have made money. OK I was feeling sorry for myself when I posted. However the post was primarily my scepticism about long term trends and the uselessness of them if not being used for exiting stocks. I have had shares in the Market since early 80s and experienced the crash in the late 80s. I remember the day well, It was the first day of my holiday. I cannot expect to have kept much of the money I have made since starting CFD trading in August, even my Rio and BHP were not that much in profit had I taken 50%. It hasn’t driven me away from trading, in fact just made me realize I mustn’t be too much in a hurry to invest too much too soon. You have some very strange advice to hand out and I just wonder if it isn’t akin to not wanting anybody else to have what you “say” you have.

thommo78

Member

Post Number: 70
Registered: 05-2005

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Saturday, October 08, 2005 - 04:44 pm:

I agree vermante .. how does a short covering rally followed by shorting opportunity sound? The 200dma is a juicy target as well.. cheers

spider

Member

Post Number: 2247
Registered: 10-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Saturday, October 08, 2005 - 05:33 pm:

AG,
I would suggest that it is bad form to promote your own forum while using this forum.
You may escape Colin's displeasure IF your sight is not a commercial one, but even so, it is bad form.

If you want to deal with other issues, then feel free to start a separate thread.

Just my thoughts, not wearing any other hat.

spider.