Technical analysis of the S&P 500 Index

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Somnomed nicola 1 1 15-Nov-09  05:38 pm

Archive through September 02, 2009 hailoh 50 1 02-Sep-09  10:15 pm

Archive through August 02, 2009 rdumas 50 1 02-Aug-09  09:48 am

Archive through July 07, 2009 paddy 50 1 07-Jul-09  02:48 pm

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Archive through April 27, 2009 justice 50 1 28-Apr-09  12:24 am

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denverd1

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Wednesday, September 02, 2009 - 11:01 pm:

Good morning fellas,
interesting day yesterday. Good luck today. I too am on the sidelines...

"So, where can we turn to find a historic example of running the presses too long and too fast?"

--Zimbabwe

paddy

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Thursday, September 03, 2009 - 10:44 am:

Quiet day today . However potential "morning star" formed with the Gap Down and a spinning top formed by todays action. So tomorrow could be an Up day. Just remember that the gods at GS can kill the pattern .

For tomorrow upside 1000 and downside 992 . Still believe that 981 will be the critical level.

SPX 500 Daily Chart 9022009

paddy

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Thursday, September 03, 2009 - 10:57 am:

hailoh : Sure the game is fixed. However doesn't stop one from trying to decipher the "code" . Their computer trading programs are based on Fibonacci values plus who knows . Probably only the Shadow and his girlfriend Margo.

Once this correction is over and if the Triangle is the "play" then the Index should rise to the Upper Boundary.

The Triangle

paddy

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Thursday, September 03, 2009 - 11:38 am:

SPX 500 Big Picture Updated

Eugenio : If the Triangle is the play then for this correction 981 should be the downside limit. Then Index should rise to Upper Boundary somewhere around 1236.

SPX 500 Daily Chart - The Big Triangle

sumamura

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Thursday, September 03, 2009 - 02:24 pm:

i am on two weeks vacation from tomorrow ..... so my next post will be on 20th september ..... bye .....

paddy

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Friday, September 04, 2009 - 08:35 am:

Another quiet day . Last minute action along with a 1.37 point Gap Up at the open fulfilled potential prediction of the " spinning top morning star candlestick" if one ignores that the Close was not in the upper half of the candlestick of 9012009.

Today upside was stopped at a sub Fib level 1003.7 and downside at 992. Those are the initial levels to watch for next session. Beyond that 1014.7 to upside and 981 to downside.

The RSI has regained above 50 and the Fast stochastic completed a positive cross with %K now above %D. Now to see if the same follow through occurs as happened in mid August.

SPX 500 Daily Chart 9032009

rdumas

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Friday, September 04, 2009 - 09:39 am:

Hi Paddy,

It is still not clear yet whether the move down by the S&P500 is corrective or impulsive. There is still a chance that it is impulsive and we won't really know unless the wave 1 price range gets violated. Wave 1 terminated at 1015.

"...if one tortures a dataset long enough, it will confess to anything!"

- Andrew Lo

paddy

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Friday, September 04, 2009 - 10:01 am:

Hi Rudy : Interesting as to how we come to same levels [ 1014.7 vs 1015 ] using different methods. I will not be surprised to see a rapid reversal from 1014.7± and a drop to 981.

Adios

Paddy

paddy

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Saturday, September 05, 2009 - 10:54 am:

Well the forecast from "spinning top morning star" has been amply attained with a Close today at 1016.40. That is 21.65 points from Close on the 2nd of September.

Now we have to wait three days for the next chapter in the Way of the Dow's SPX 500.

In today.s session the upward rise was halted at an ascending Fib level of 1016.58 whereas the downside was stopped by a descending Fib level of 1001.7 .

By my read the RSI and the various Stochastics all indicate further upside. However Tuesday the 8th is a long ways off and much can happen in that time.

If the gods decide that the way is up, then a spike up to 1039.5 may be in the works. To the downside 981 is the initial major target. If the major Triangle is in play then there should be a reversal at that point.If 981 does not hold then 946 becomes the target.. If a severe correction gets underway the 888 could come up on your radar screen.

SPX 500 Daily Chart 9042009

paddy

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Saturday, September 05, 2009 - 12:15 pm:

Using the Weekly chart one can see that the Way will be Down. Allowing for an Upside spike the dominant trend will be down and we should see first a test at 981 and then a drop to 945.

SPX 500 Weekly Chart 9042009

So now comes my interpretation of what will unfold in the coming sessions. This next chart is a portion of the Weekly SPX 500 that covers the Inverse Head and Shoulders . I see it as a "River and Side Streams" Whatever the key feature is that, by my reckoning, the Neckline is at 945 and the potential Upside target is 1224.

River and Side Streams

The Big Triangle Chart incorporates all the pieces of the puzzle. There is a major Upside Fib level at 1236 which also appears to be the "third" point on the Upper Boundary of the Big Triangle.

So in summary down to 981 - then 945 . Major reversal and a climb up to 1224 - 1236. That's how I see it . May not be correct but it makes a damn fine story.

Big Triangle

eblode

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Saturday, September 05, 2009 - 12:39 pm:

Paddy,
I'm getting a bit worried that the Tequila is beginning to take effect. The market is going in the opposite direction of your analysis. We are going to have a strong Monday, followed by another strong week as more good news will flow and institutional buyers will pick up the slack by investing their frustration at missing the boat in the first move up. That's how I read it. But who knows? Time will tell. Nevertheless your charting is fantastic.

Eugenio

paddy

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Saturday, September 05, 2009 - 01:39 pm:

Eugenio : By my read Markets in USA are closed on Monday. So it is going to be very difficult to have an Up day in the Markets.

If my read is anywhere near correct I expect some violent swings as the "gods of GS" inflict pain on both bulls and bears in the coming sessions.

And whether or not it is clear to me, no doubt the Market is unfolding as it should.

Be Cheerful

Paddy

rdumas

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Saturday, September 05, 2009 - 05:24 pm:

Hi Paddy,

Whilst raking up the leaves in the garden it occurred to me that perhaps I could use a pitchfork on the S&P500 so I got myself one of those St Andrews variety. It certainly came close to picking a few turning points.

It looks like it was on its way up to the 1100 level and decided to stop for a drink half way.

What do you reckon?

"...if one tortures a dataset long enough, it will confess to anything!"

- Andrew Lo

baysider

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Saturday, September 05, 2009 - 07:12 pm:

Hi Paddy

Great to have your analysis by the way. All very tricky a the moment, I'm torn both ways. If it wasn't September I probably be buying again on Monday (Aus). Will the previous resistance be tested seems to be the key question. If so a great time to buy but if you wait there's a chance it won't make the test and you miss out on the big rally. I think keeping some cash and put some back into the market may be the way to go for now.

rdumas

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Sunday, September 06, 2009 - 09:53 am:

Hi Paddy,

The VIX looks very interesting at the moment. The descending blue line reflects the lessening of fear that took place in the months prior to the end of July. The red line indicates that the tide has turned and we could be seeing the beginnings of increasing fear building up as we go into those disaster prone September/October months.

It is a very interesting period that we are entering at this point in time.

"...if one tortures a dataset long enough, it will confess to anything!"

- Andrew Lo

paddy

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Sunday, September 06, 2009 - 11:07 am:

For anyone interested here are WEEKLY SUPPORT and RESISTANCE values for the NYSE SPX 500 for week of September 8. Also shown on chart below.

Resistance level : 1033 -- 1049 -- 1085 -- 1122

Pivot Point : 1012

Support Levels : 996 -- 976 -- 939 -- 903

============

SPX 500 Weekly Support & Resistance Levels

SPX Weekly Support & Resistance Levels

sumamura

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Sunday, September 27, 2009 - 10:45 pm:

looks like most contributors to this thread were bear operators who lost heart when market bounced .... hence the thread has gone dead last 20 days ......

pl have a look at my weekly levels for several indices ......

weekly levels for world indices

ken

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Sunday, September 27, 2009 - 11:14 pm:

Hello Sumaruma,

A couple of questions

First, the All Ordinaries is not traded - the ASX 200 is.

Second, how do I interpret the All Ordinaries trigger of 4680 for going long when it closed above this?

Regards,

Ken

sumamura

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Monday, September 28, 2009 - 01:42 pm:

ken,

you can trade ASX 200 long or short looking at aussy ord long or short triggers.

aussy ord has closed above 4680 on friday but that is not relevant. pl look at current trading levels. if they are above 4680 - consistently for 15/20 mins .... take that as a trigger .

currently, aussy ord is 4658 and it is below 4660 for sometime. if it stays below 4660 consistently for 15/20 mins ...... go short.

i hope it clarifies yr doubts.

sumamura

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Monday, September 28, 2009 - 01:45 pm:

ken,

pl read my posts of 16th july and a bit earlier on same thread.

sumamura

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Friday, October 02, 2009 - 06:49 pm:

i hope many of you are tracking my weekly levels and find them useful.

pl have a look at my monthly levels for october. i will await yr comments as the month progresses.

sumamura

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Monday, October 19, 2009 - 05:26 am:

weekly levels for world indices .....

gdd3

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Thursday, October 22, 2009 - 02:50 pm:

With the DJIA, S&P500 and the NASDAQ Comp. all trading out REVERSAL days last night on higher volumes it appears we have at the very least a swing high in place that may or may not prove significant.

The last time these markets had a REVERSAL day was on Sept. 23rd and it resulted in a minimum of a 5% correction that lasted 7 trading days. Further, all previous reasonable corrections(i.e. atleast 7 trading days)since the March significant Swing low (May 7th, June 10th and Aug. 5th)started with a REVERSAL day pattern.

To illustrate have a look at the S&P500 below.

Whether a 5%+ correction is worth adjusting/lighting off your portfolio is another question. Certainly, those who have increased there exposure this month may consider 'cashing' up a bit to maybe better get levels over the coming 'fortnight'. The risk(concern) here is that we don't know what sort of correction is about to unfold, or indeed if there is going to be one, as this REVERSAL day could prove to be 'different' to the others(i.e. false). This is unlikely and we should see some sort of correction from here BUT as long as the Oct. 2nd swing low remains intact I'm looking to use any correction as an opportunity to re-invest. Whilst that remains intact these markets are still strong(as the series of higher highs and higher lows since the March lows indicate).

Cheers
Dolphin

sumamura

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Thursday, October 22, 2009 - 03:11 pm:

dolphin

good observation.

this gels with my weekly and monthly levels very well. pl look at monthly and weekly levels together an u may be able to pick-up a good re-entry point.

gdd3

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Thursday, October 22, 2009 - 05:34 pm:

Thanks Sumamura....we will see how things pan-out over the next couple of nights to see if this observation is approaching 'correct'????

Did look at your levels(Monthy and Weekly) and, if I have read them correctly(S&P for example), I see that at the beginning of the Month(Oct.3rd) you would have been short(basis monthly levels) at 1020 only to be stopped out at 1036 on the same night before going long at 1084(Oct.14),
the current position, with a stop at 1068(maybe tonight?). Your weekly levels(this week) should now have you in short, right at 1082 after being long earlier in the week at 1097(being stopped out at 1089 last night). Not too much damage but cant help but think that OCT. could have been a better month for you.....however, you still have 7 more trading days and if short @ 1082 you may get those 42points back(assuming you get stopped on the monthly long position) especially if we get a 5%+ correction over the next 7 trading day's as I hinted in my post above.

Good trading and thanks for your 'forecast' postings; its not too many 'traders/investors' who are prepared to stick their necks out and make continual forecasts as you are prepared to do. On that note, I am not looking to note when you may 'trip-up' as I have personal experience of being a 'forecaster' in previous employments for a **Bank, broker and Insurer.

Cheers
Dolphin

P.S.** As a T/A for a Bank, many moons ago, I had to enter weekly and daily forecasts(technical levels)for F.I., F.X, and XAO on Reuters for our Banks countrywide traders and one F.I.team in Melbourne use to take particular interest in my forecasts and actually complimented me on many occasions as they openly stated they used to take notice as they always traded the other side(opposite view). So, you may be helping more people than you think, Sumarura!

sumamura

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Friday, October 23, 2009 - 04:43 am:

dear dolphin,

i will normally recommend to use monthly for 'guidance' and not for trading. if at all it is to be used for trading - it shud be only using 'options'.

moreover a daily close shud be the trigger in such a case.

for actual trading, weekly is most suitable ..... in that case consistent break of trigger level for 15 to 20 minutes is a must. 'consistent' is the key word - that means not even once the level shud be broken during that time. same for stoploss as well.

if the stock runs too far in the 15/20 mins period, we shud enter on a pullback where we feel entry is comfortable from stoploss point of view.}

i do not hv a 5 min graph for all the indices. if you have one, may be you can analyse better.

try with two / three indices and may be we will know efficacy better.

gdd3

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Friday, October 23, 2009 - 11:01 am:

Hi Sumarura....

Agree with all you have said here re use of Monthly charts; personally very rarely use them but take your point on their value for (long-term) option play.

Yes, also (sort of) agree with your importance of the Weekly charts(data) but with one proviso; in a more volatile environment(like we are still really in) I put more emphasis on the Daily charts from an investment point of view and Hourly charts from a trade point of view. Entry decisions, as you have said, fall back to 15/30 min charts/data BUT ideally have all Daily , Hourly and 15/30min Charts in sync.

Cheers
Dolphin

sumamura

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Monday, October 26, 2009 - 09:34 am:

pl have a look at this weeks world indices levels ...

weekly levels for world indices

sumamura

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Monday, November 02, 2009 - 03:16 pm:

pl have a look at monthly trading levels for several indices .....

monthly levels

sumamura

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Monday, November 02, 2009 - 03:19 pm:

look at weekly levels of some important indices .......

weekly levels for world indices

sumamura

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Monday, November 02, 2009 - 03:21 pm:

dolphin,

i hope you will have a look and find weekly and monthly levels useful for your trading.

gdd3

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Monday, November 02, 2009 - 07:52 pm:

Thanks Sumamura....I'll keep your levels in mind. Intraday Futures charts on both the S&P500 and the XJO seem to favour that after initial earlier weakness tonight in the US a 2 day rally should prevail that will allow us to make up our mind whether to look for a shorting position or go long.

Dolphin

sumamura

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Monday, November 09, 2009 - 11:49 am:

pl have a look at my this weeks levels ......

i hope my last weeks posts have helped .....

weekly levels for world indices

paddy

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Friday, November 13, 2009 - 03:01 pm:

With a 0.20 Gap Down the Index went on to form a big red bearish candlestick. The price action, by the chart, was confined between two rising trend lines [TRL] associated with an Ascending Channel [AC] .

The intraday Low of 1084.90 tested the lower boundary of the AC and again the descent stopped only 0.08 above a Fibonacci sub level at 1084.82 . The intraday high of 1101.97 and subsequent failure of the internal [green] TRL and the level 1101.36 . The Index closed at 1087.24 and was 0.20 below the Fibonacci level at 1087.44 which was the target level for the session.

The next session occurs on 111309. A day that is also known as Friday the 13th. The MMrs might give us a session that would do Freddie right proud. Given that the close fell short of the Fibonacci level at 1087.44 there is a real possibility that both the lower TRL and a Fibonacci level at 1076.34 will be tested. The 1076.34 is a natural level for a reversal to be initiated. Still, in a normal retracement, should that level fail the Index could eventually test 1058.41 before reversing.

To the Upside 1105.37 has to be cleared if the Index is going to RIP to eventually test the upper boundary of the Great Triangle.

Rising Fibonacci levels to watch for:

1. 1118.35
2. 1111.68
3. 1107.85
4. 1105.37

For tomorrow the initial calculated resistance level is DS1 - 1097.84 while the support levels are DS1 - 1080.77 and DS2 - 1074.3 . The complete updated data is given below.

RESISTANCE

* WR4- 1183.02
* DR4- 1142.58
* WR3- 1140.92
* MR2- 1133.91
* DR3- 1125.51
* DR2- 1108.44
* WR2- 1098.82
* DR1- 1097.84
* MR1- 1085.05
* WR1- 1084.06

SUPPORT

* DS1- 1080.77
* DS2- 1074.3
* DS3- 1057.23
* WS1- 1041.96
* DS4- 1040.16
* WS2-1014.62
* MS1- 1003.64
* WS3- 972.52
* WS4- 930.42

DEFINITIONS

DR-WR-MR
Daily Resistance- Weekly Resistance- Monthly Resistance Levels
DS-WS-MS
Daily Support- Weekly Support- Monthly Support Levels

$SPX 500 Daily Chart 121109

rdumas

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Friday, November 13, 2009 - 04:20 pm:

Hi Paddy,

Welcome back. I also only just started posting again at IC after a trip to the 'other side of the veil'.

Rounding off numbers, I get a cluster of Fib levels between 1065 and 1067 for the S&P500.

I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

rdumas

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Saturday, November 14, 2009 - 08:07 am:

Hi Paddy,

Well done!!! Your DR1 was 1097.84 and the index went to 1097.79 before falling away. To me that's pretty spot on mate.

I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

paddy

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Saturday, November 14, 2009 - 10:12 am:

Hi Rudy : Thanks. I could do a lot better if I had a copy of the god's [ GS] trading program that, I believe, is heavily based of Fibonacci values .

For example the high of 1105.37 is a Fibonacci sub level.

The Close at 1087.24 was just 0.20 below Fibonacci level 1087.44 and the Open today jumped all of 0.15 above the Fib.

Then today the Close of 1093.48 was 0.04 above the Fib 1093.44 .

If I could contact "god" I'd ask for a copy of the program and help terminate the "bugs" so that these horrendous errors could be a thing of the past.

Write more later.

Adios

Paddy

rdumas

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Saturday, November 14, 2009 - 01:43 pm:

Hi Paddy,

An accuracy to less than one point is good enough for us 'wet finger in the air' investors.

I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

sumamura

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Sunday, November 15, 2009 - 04:56 am:

pl have a look at this weeks world indices levels ....

weekly levels for world indices

hailoh

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Sunday, November 15, 2009 - 10:41 am:

G'day Paddy and Rudy

I am staying on the sidelines of the market at present - waiting until I think values are better for both the short and long term. For that reason I am looking at signs of change in valuing the $US, changes that could start to scare the current carry trade.

Swiss franc v US dollar

I have sketched in previous turning points and based only on time interval a possible future turning point near the end of this year, early in next.

I, and trust others, would be interested in your fibonacci and wave analyses.

rdumas

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Sunday, November 15, 2009 - 11:48 am:

Hi Hailoh,

As IC doesn't appear to have the CHFUSD chart I will use the one that it does have which is the inverse of the latter, being the USDCHF chart. If readers will stand on their heads they will get a similar final pattern to the one you presented so it doesn't really matter.

I will take a much shorter time frame to look at than the one you presented. I will also leave the Fib stuff to Paddy because that is his area of expertise and hence he is far more accurate than I am in that area.

From an EW count perspective I need to caution everyone that EW counts can be greatly influenced by the subconscious biases of the analyst. So with that caution I will suggest a couple of EW counts that may be in play.

Note that at a higher level I am suggesting that either a circle ABC corrective pattern is in play or the first 2 waves of an impulse wave are in play. At this higher level both scenarios are nearing completion.

If we now drill in one level down to the last wave that is forming which I have labeled C?. The reason for the ? is that the wave is currently not completed.

If we drill down yet another level in this wave C? we will see that we have completed the sub wave iv and are in the final stages of completing wave v. When this wave completes, it will also complete wave C? which in turn will mean that either higher level wave circle C or wave circle 3 will commence.

So to summarise in non EW terminology, it means that we are nearing completion of the downward movement of USDCHF detailed on this chart and once the final pattern completes, it will start a very big rally into the coming months.

The exact timing is difficult to determine but if we look at the relative time frames of the previous waves it obviously means that this rally is not very far away.

This chart very much reflects the effects of the falling US dollar. Once the US dollar starts to rally (which this chart suggests is not all that far away) this should bring about large falls in the US share market and anything else measured in US dollars.

I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

paddy

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Sunday, November 15, 2009 - 01:56 pm:

Hailoh / Rudy :

I used $USD data [ DX Weekly ] for my calculations. I get a very strong correlation between an estimation of the end of this down leg and Fibonacci values. I have to assume that I selected correct EW values and that the $USD is in a 5th leg down.

Assuming all is well I get a terminal point of 72.51 and a Fibonacci value [ level where the retracement reverses or it heads for HELL ] of 72.51 .

So that is my call 72.51 or HELL.

Adios

Paddy

rdumas

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Sunday, November 15, 2009 - 02:19 pm:

Hi Barry,

As you are usually to within a cent or two I should buy into the US dollar at around $72.53.

When you say hell I assume you are talking about global share markets and anything priced in US dollars.

I would assume that it will be Heaven for the US dollar buyers.

I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

visions

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Monday, November 16, 2009 - 08:09 am:

Hi Rudy

If you insert chfusd_fx that should bring up Swiss Franc / US Dollar chart in Incredible Charts.

Cheers ... Visions

rdumas

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Monday, November 16, 2009 - 08:18 am:

Hi visions,

Thanks for that.......it works as you suggested.

I was a bit slack in my original search as I just went to the 'Selections/FOREX' tab and didn't download the FOREX menu. The small selection of FOREX charts they had there did not include the CHFUSD chart.

I won't go through the hassle of relabeling the correct chart because it will be the inverse of the previous one anyway.

Cheers

Rudy

I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

visions

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Monday, November 16, 2009 - 08:45 am:

No worries Rudy and thanks for your continued input.

Cheers ... Visions

paddy

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Monday, November 16, 2009 - 01:17 pm:

Hi Rudy : The "rally" is not quite completed but it is getting closer to that reversal the world has been waiting for since the 21st of October.
As you can see from the chart I believe the way is up. My target levels for the next session are :

------- 1097.01 - 1105.37 - 1107.85 - 1111.86 - 1116.48

We may see 1116 and possibly 1118 on this upstroke but it will probably be strong resistance as there is a cluster of Fibonacci values betwen thos two values. I think there has to be one further small correction before the Index goes for the Upper ascending TRL that I calculate to be at 1121±. That's a familiar number - 50% retracement of the interval 1576.09 - 666.79 is, as you are aware, 1121. When this event occurs and the Index breaks above then 1137 will be the target.

For the next session the calculated Daily Resistance levels are :

------- DR1 - 1099.07 - DR2 - 1104.66 - DR3 - 1117.12

For completeness the Daily Support levels are :

------- DS1 - 1086.61 - DS2 - 1079.74 - DS3 - 1067.28

SPX 500 Daily Chart - 131109

rdumas

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Monday, November 16, 2009 - 03:27 pm:

Hi Paddy,

We agree that there is still a chance that the rally is not yet complete however there are indications that things are nearing a top using various methodologies.

Should the market continue in its rally then I have two target levels that I am looking at. As you say one of them is the 50% Fibonacci retrace level of 1121.44.

The other key level that I am looking at is 1158.76. This is the level the index would get to if it had wave equality between waves X and Z. It also seems to be in the general area of where the long term descending trend line hits the current time frame.

Note that the TMF remains negative and trending downwards so selling pressure remains strong.

I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

paddy

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Monday, November 16, 2009 - 06:48 pm:

Hi Rudy : Whatever the end "Letter" is I leave to you. I agree that there is the possibility of further upside after 1121± . Before tackling 1158± there are the levels 1137± and 1145± . If the "wind" is blowing in the right direction then Fibonacci levels 1162± and 1187± could be tested. Who knows maybe even 1228± or 1237± could show up on the radar screen. Only the Shadow and his girlfriend Margo know what the god gs has in store for the markets? And they aren't talking.

Have a good one.

Adios

Paddy

paddy

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Tuesday, November 17, 2009 - 04:24 am:

Hi Rudy : And the top of the morning to you. Here's a candlestick pattern from the other side of the STC.

We have nano this and nano that. This pattern was not nano and probably does not fit in any scheme of candlestick patterns on this side of the STC. It certainly does not fit the time period of one to three weeks for Flags and Pennants. So I'll assign a new sub-division for candlestick patterns : "Lilliputian" This Lilliputian Pennant might have been small but the "Flagpole" indicated a potential RIP of 20.88 from the top of the pennant at 1093.44. That made the Target 1114.32 . So far the Index has advanced 18.3 points or 87.6% of the potential RIP and the session has a ways to go.

Adios

Paddy

Lilliputian Pennant

rdumas

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Tuesday, November 17, 2009 - 08:36 am:

Hi Paddy,

Look at the major moves in the S&P500 recently. Note that there is no consistency with the up and down moves at all. The 81.41 up range was 135.3% of the 60.15% down range. The 84.30 up range was only 117.1% of the 71.98 down range. So the up ranges are increasing but the relativity between these up ranges and the preceding down move is decreasing. If you continue this theme it means that the up and down moves are getting larger but equal indicating great instability in the market which must resolve itself in a breakout and I doubt very much that it can happen on the upside.

This is very much a topping pattern in my view.

I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

paddy

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Tuesday, November 17, 2009 - 10:10 am:

Hi Rudy : My Lilliputian Pennant almost made it to the Target falling short by 0.63 points. However if I am on the right page that will be achieved tomorrow plus a little bit more .

I have two targets 1116.52 and 1136.06 . The first should be achieved . The initial value is bracketed by two Fibonacci levels at 1116.32 and 1116.67 so there will be some reasonable resistance. The second target should not be in play at this moment in time. However between the two levels sit two Fibonacci levels where a reversal could occur if this up leg is nearing termination. The first just happens to be 1121.13 which is very close to 1121.44 - the 50% retracement level for the "correction" 1576.09 - 666.79 . The other value is 1123.98 and this is a very common value in calculations of Fibonacci values for various ascending or descending legs of this Bear Market Rally . So I would not be surprised to see a brief spike to that level to complete this "rally".

Once completed we can start working on " Where's the Target down in the Valley?"

Adios

Paddy

rdumas

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Tuesday, November 17, 2009 - 10:23 am:

Hi Paddy,

Those price targets sound pretty good to me. Last week I forked out over $120 for a book on Fibonacci Trading. It covers both Fibonacci price and time targets.

There is a cluster of Fibonacci time targets between the 16th and 18th November which should mark a turn date of some kind. I will be interested to see what happens.

Have you ever tried to apply Fibonacci to the time axis?

I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

paddy

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Wednesday, November 18, 2009 - 11:41 am:

Hi Rudy and all other readers:

They say it was a volatile day on the NYSE but from my viewpoint it was just a normal correction session with lots of killing time.

The $SPX opened at 1109.22 down 0.08. They like to work in multiples of four. Then the Index worked its way down to 1102.19 where it tested the 0.382 retracement Fibonacci value of 1112.69. It was a positive test and then for most of the session a "game" called "Your Turn" was played. This involved the Fibonacci levels 1105.37 and 1107.85 taking turns to be tested. At the start of the last hour of the session the "game" was terminated and the Index RIP to an intraday high of 1110.52. The Close at 1110.32 was just 0.12 points above the Fibonacci sub level 1110.20 .

So the next session should be the last one of this "rally". The potential target levels are :

- 1116.52 - 1118.35 - 1121.44 - 1123.98 - 1136.06-1156-1162

The last three levels are possible if the MMrs decide to slaughter a few more "Bears". Lately the Index action has been too predictable so I believe the time has come for a big surprise. First for the "Bears" and then for the "Bulls" . Their turn will come when the price action of the Index takes on the flight characteristics of a large stone.

The calculated Resistance Levels for the next session are :

- DR1-1113.16 - DR2-1116.01 -DR3-1123.45 - DR4-1132.67

The Support Levels which may come into play tomorrow are:

- DS1-1104.83 - DS2-1097.35 - DS3-1091.62 - DS4-1082.69

SPX 500 Daily Chart 171109

Adios

Paddy

rdumas

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Wednesday, November 18, 2009 - 12:11 pm:

Hi Paddy,

I will be watching the price action with great interest tonight to see which of your levels gets tested.

I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

rdumas

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Wednesday, November 18, 2009 - 12:34 pm:

Hi Paddy,

I note that the SPX got very close to your target for the Lilliputian Pennant of 1114.32. I figure 1113.69 is close enough. Perhaps we've seen the top but like you I think there is just a bit to go.

I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

rdumas

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Thursday, November 19, 2009 - 10:33 am:

Hi Paddy,

As I mentioned on the ODB thread, I think that the SPX will have a bit of a thrust up to the 1114~1116 levels shortly.

I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

paddy

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Thursday, November 19, 2009 - 10:56 am:

Hi Rudy : "They" delayed the final move a day. I believe they are trying to put the investors to sleep so the bulls miss the last big up move and the bears get get an additional whacking.

Today was a repeat of yesterday just using a different set of Fibonacci levels for the 'game" Your Turn. Today the Fibonacci values were between 1111.73 and 1102.69. Notice the downside ended 0.01 points above the Fib level.

I'll stick with same targets but favor 1128.86 .

If the Index gets near that level and the reversal occurs I believe that 1067 will be tested in short order.

Adios

Paddy

rdumas

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Thursday, November 19, 2009 - 05:50 pm:

Hi Paddy,

I'm assuming that you are not expecting the 1128.86 to happen tomorrow. I would have thought that the 1114~1116 (rounded numbers only) levels would have been a strong overhead resistance.

I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

paddy

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Friday, November 20, 2009 - 05:30 am:

Hi Rudy : I was playing what if "THEY" pull a swifty . Now I know the signs for a reversal were there but I was too tired last night to write about them. Anyways here is the picture as I saw it :

-----16th : spike to 1113.69 potential blowoff top

-----17th : candlestick close enough to be a "Hanging man"

-----18th : Doji "cross" to hangem high

-----19th : Open - "THEY" pulled the lever

Now we have to wait and see what "They" have in store for the Market. So far, by my numbers, it is just a "deep correction" of the last up leg.

SPX 500 - THe Warning

rdumas

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Friday, November 20, 2009 - 08:31 am:

Price Action for S&P500

When the index broke through the upper boundary of the contracting wedge in the previous session, I thought that it would continue on its journey. Well I got that wrong.

The following chart shows us what really happened. From the outset of the session last night, it was obvious that the S&P500 did not like being where it was.

Whilst it did bounce off what appears to be a double bottom level, I would not get too excited about it because the index did close below a lot of overhead resistance as you can see by all of the congestion to the left of the current price action.

We can also see from the longer term intraday chart that this level was a strong resistance level previously.

I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

paddy

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Sunday, November 22, 2009 - 07:38 am:

Hi Rudy : i have my eggs scrambled as it makes less of a mess.

Here is my take on the SPX.

The SPX 500 Index is at the "junction" where we will see an reenactment of that scenario " The Road Not Taken ". Will it be RIP or RIP ? The next session will show us the way.

The Index traded between 1094.66 and 1086.81 with a close at 1091.38 . The drop to 1086.81 indicated, to me, that this correction could be more than a "deep" correction of the latest RIP 1084.90 - 1113.69 . The key will be whether the green ascending Trend Line [ ATRL ] at approximately 1090± holds, as it has in the past, then we could see a continued re bound to the 1115± level . That is the road named optimistic.

Now we come to that other "road" that if taken will see the " bears " rejoicing for as long as the correction lasts. If this is the scenario then it may be short lived but inflict much pain to the bulls. Now should 1090± [ green ATRL ] fail the correction will be for the RIP 1029-38 to 1113.69. The normal retracement levels will be at 1081.48 and 1061.59 . Should those levels fail the first the ATRL [ yellow ] at approximately 1057± will be tested . That value is supported by fibonacci values that have occurred between 1055 and 1057. Lastly the lower boundary [ magenta ATRL ] of the ascending meandering channel [ AMC ] is the last support for a "normal" retracement. The meandering is the sinuous path taken by the Index since September and one can see that it will be a natural event for the boundary to be tested. The value of the magenta ATRL is approximately 1042± which fits with a sub Fib level at 1041. Looking at the chart I can see that the magenta ATRL might be drawn a bit on the high side and that the value should be 1037± . Again this is supported by a sub Fib at 1036.98 . The red ATRL sits at a RIP retracement level for the 869.32 - 1113.69 . That test is probably not in the cards for this correction. That is the potential scenario for the road named reality.

In the last session the Index rebounded just above a sub-support level at 1086.18 so that will be the early indication level for the downside scenario. To the upside, should that scenario be in play, the 'zone" 1094 - 1096 if cleared will set the stage for a RIP to 1100+.

The calculated Resistance and Support values are as follows:

RESISTANCE

* WR4- 1177.93
* WR3- 1151.05
* MR2- 1133.91
* WR2- 1124.17
* DR4- 1114.50
* WR1- 1107.78
* DR3- 1106.65
* DR2- 1098.80
* DR1- 1095.09
* MR1- 1085.05

SUPPORT

* DS1- 1087.24
* DS2- 1083.10
* WS1- 1080.90
* DS3- 1075.25
* WS2-1070.41
* DS4- 1067.40
* WS3- 1043.53
* WS4-1016.65
* MS1- 1003.64

DEFINITIONS

DR-WR-MR
Daily Resistance- Weekly Resistance- Monthly Resistance Levels
DS-WS-MS
Daily Support- Weekly Support- Monthly Support Levels
===========

SPX 500 Daily Chart 201109

rdumas

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Sunday, November 22, 2009 - 08:21 am:

Excellent post Paddy (EPP),

It is a great road map for investors to keep their eyes on and clearly covers all of the sensible scenarios.

I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

sumamura

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Monday, November 23, 2009 - 12:08 am:

pl have a look at weekly levels of various indices ....

weekly levels for world indices

paddy

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Friday, November 27, 2009 - 07:28 pm:

Hi Rudy :

As you are aware this correction has been in the making for quite sometime. It would have happened whether Dubai came on the scene or not. This is for sure - on Thanksgiving Day the Bears gave thanks that Xmas had arrived very early.

The positive test, on the 26th, of support for the $USD and the subsequent rally is the major factor in setting up the correction.

$USD CASH had a positive test of the Fibonacci 0.764 level at 74.22 with a Low of 74.17 . There was a sharp reversal and a rally was born and so far the High is 75.476 . The $USD is Presently at 75.381 and with a close above 75.27 that should set up a test perhaps as high as 78.03 .The $USD rally fits nicely with the Negativity of the SPX.

In the SPX 500 Chart [ not able to upload ] there was a pattern that suggested a reversal was at hand. This is based on a pattern that doesn't follow the rules. It is a one Week Bearish Descending Symmetrical Triangle with a minimum potential drop of 20.88 points from the level 1105±. This gives a downside target of 1081. Taking an extreme negativity stance the potential downside target target is 1066 .

The normal correction for the SPX 500 RIP 1029.38 - 1113.69 based on Fibonacci calculations is as follows:

Fibonacci 0.382 level : 1081.48

Fibonacci 0.618 level : 1061.59

Now we just have to wait and see if it is going to be a Normal or Severe Correction.

The updated Resistance and Support data is as follows. Given that the Futures are down, at this time, over 40 points I don't see any of the Daily support levels holding as the Gap Down should clear them all.

RESISTANCE

* WR4- 1177.93
* WR3- 1151.05
* MR2- 1133.91
* WR2- 1124.17
* DR4- 1128.14
* WR1- 1107.78
* DR3- 1121.71
* DR2- 1115.28
* DR1- 1112.96
* MR1- 1085.05

SUPPORT

* DS1- 1106.53
* DS2- 1102.42
* DS3- 1095.99
* DS4- 1089.56
* WS1- 1080.90
* WS2-1070.41
* WS3- 1043.53
* WS4-1016.65
* MS1- 1003.64

DEFINITIONS

DR-WR-MR
Daily Resistance- Weekly Resistance- Monthly Resistance Levels
DS-WS-MS
Daily Support- Weekly Support- Monthly Support Levels

rdumas

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Saturday, November 28, 2009 - 02:20 pm:

Hi Barry,

The US dollar index chart is shown below.

I personally think that the US dollar is going through a bit of a corrective phase and not starting a new impulse wave upwards just yet. For that reason I still believe that the SPX will still have one leg up left before this multi-month rally is over. Naturally enough the negative scenario is also a possibility. It just doesn't happen to be my highest probability scenario at this stage.

You may be right about a reversal but I am not convinced that the SPX will start making a new high at this stage. The following intraday chart shows that we had the expected plummet early in the trading session. It then recovered around 70% of that down move but then fell back around 78% of that intraday rally. To me that indicates market weakness.

Looking at the longer term chart I make some other observations.

Note that the index is travelling in an ascending channel. Until that channel fails I continue to think that we may have another leg up.

Earlier in the ascending channel there was a 5 peak pattern and we are currently making another 5 peak pattern. I accept that the patterns are not identical but there are some similarities none the less.

Now I don't know if we can count that last spike as the 5th peak in this pattern but there is a possibility that if it was then we may get a move down to test the bottom of the ascending channel.

I am conscious of the fact that my proposed pattern may not occur but its worth keeping in mind.

I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

rdumas

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Saturday, November 28, 2009 - 03:19 pm:

Hi Barry,

You have probably heard this view before about Mondays on the SPX. There is a consensus that the PPT attempts to manipulate the index on a Monday to shake out the bears early in the week. The SPX has had 11 Mondays that were up out of the last 14.

That supports your idea of a bounce on Monday.

I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

sumamura

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Monday, November 30, 2009 - 02:32 am:

pl have a look at weekly levels of various indices ....

weekly levels for world indices

sumamura

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Sunday, December 06, 2009 - 03:56 pm:

pl have a look at weekly levels of various indices ....

weekly levels for world indices

qed

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Sunday, December 06, 2009 - 09:31 pm:

OH ye unbelievers 5300 is nigh by dec24th

qed

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Sunday, December 06, 2009 - 09:34 pm:

posted chart .... where did it go?

sumamura

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Monday, December 14, 2009 - 11:51 am:

pl have a look at weekly levels of various indices ....

weekly levels for world indices

sumamura

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Monday, December 21, 2009 - 12:08 pm:

pl have a look at weekly levels of various indices ....

weekly levels for world indices

mastersl46

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Tuesday, December 22, 2009 - 10:51 pm:

Hello Everybody,
Where is everyone??
I haven't seen any posts up regarding the S&P 500 for a little while now which makes me think everyone has deserted me for Xmas!! Booo Hoooooo
Just want to write on this wall if anyone knows of any Gann methods to maybe work out when the top will be hit??
My point of view is the market will break through 1120 the next few days & maybe have some resistance at 1160.
This maybe the end but I would love to know that for sure.Looking at end of Jan or end of Feb for finishing time.
The major overhead trend line may be the telling factor.
The 61.8% mark is 1228 so it could reach as high as this before starting its way down.
Anyway Merry Xmas to everyone & I always enjoy looking at different posts for opinions
All the best

paddy

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Wednesday, December 23, 2009 - 05:37 am:

Hi Master146 : Have been waiting for the break through of 1120 - 1122 . Once there is a solid close above that level then the Index will challenge 1134 - 1158 or 1170. All depends on what the "gods" running the gs computers decide is fit for the small fry [ fish / suckers / common investors or whatever tern THEY use for us ].

The reversal from the TOP may be swift and the drop rapid. Today is the third day of a reversal that was pegged to start on the 18th and so far has run according to predictions. This may last until the 26th.

SPX 500 Daily Chart 221209

paddy

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Wednesday, December 23, 2009 - 05:47 am:

Hi Master146 : Had to cut size of this chart of SPX with Channel and the three Targets 1134 - 1158 and 1170.

A Very Merry Xmas to One and All

Paddy

=============

SPX 500 Channel to the TOP

eblode

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Wednesday, December 23, 2009 - 03:44 pm:

Hi Paddy,

I'm ready to jump out of the market with stops once we reach 1160 as Rudy feels the same way. What surprises me is the positive press everywhere about a sharp recovery in the USA and the positive view on China. It really confuses the investors as to which is the right direction to turn. For my part I'm rather be safe than sorry so will have my trigger finger on the stops after crossing 1160 for sure. Say Paddy do the bandidos worry you? My guess is that they are afraid of you. Have a Merry Christmas.

Eugenio

ingot54

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Wednesday, December 23, 2009 - 08:14 pm:

This is a market I would already be watching from the sidelines. But it is great to exchange hypothetical views.

I looked on both the DAILY and 4H charts, and saw price rejection at 1119.11 on 04/12/09 and again at 1120.25 on 22/12/09.

EDIT: The DAILY chart couldn't quite form the shooting star candle, though it was on the way ...

The current 4H bar is a classic spinning top.

After a nice rally, or even a move ending in a weak break-out, such as we have just seen, a spinning top indicates weakness among the bulls and a potential change or interruption in trend.

Similarly, the upper tail on the previous 4H candle, is indication trepidation amongst the bulls, rather than bearish strength, imho.

Finally, that spinning top is an inside bar, indicating neither bulls nor bears are able to gain the ascendancy.

My view is that the most likely action will be a pull-back, based on the three points above. The chart below shows price within a white box, with a recent attempt at a break-out. In fact price has been ranging between 1085/86 at the bottom, and 1116/17 at the top.

There is also a strong pivot zone at 1111 to 1112.20.

If pressed for an opinion (and opinions come easily to me) I would opt for a pullback to around the 1112 zone, before another attempt at a breakout above 1120. EDIT: There is also weak support around 1116 - the high of the last black 4H candle.

As I write, the S&P500 Futures is up 3.90 at 1117.50, and both the Dax and FTSE are up by 0.5% so that at least those give a lead.

But we know from experience that the market can be like a Leopard - good in spots.

And like a Leopard, not to be trusted in the wild, or indeed in the home!

This is one move I am not afraid of missing out on.

S&P_500_4H

(Message edited by ingot54 on December 23, 2009)

Keep Smiling - Don't look back

Hell, there are no rules here - we're trying to accomplish something ~ Thomas A. Edison

Never believe that a few caring people can't change the world. For, indeed, that's all who ever have ~ Margaret Mead

paddy

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Wednesday, December 23, 2009 - 08:23 pm:

Eugenio : Good to hear from you. Yes I'd say be very ready to exit because I believe the reversal will be swift and brutal. THEY will take no prisoners.

Looks like in a few hours the "4th stage " of the rocket GSS SPX Index will be ignited and we will continue upwards towards the target [ asteroid "Quien Sabe "] . That is if the journey is not interrupted by bandidos o terroristas .

Slowly but surely the country is becoming an armed camp .We have local police, state police, drug police , federal police and several specialist branches of the armed forces participating in trying to control the drug trade . Fat bloody chance of that happening.

This I do know - At times in the past I have worked alone in the Sierras where the locals carried illegal 45's or 9 mm . The "growers" accepted me as the real thing [ geologist ] as they said no agent of the DEA would work alone in their territory. I would not do that now.

You have yourself a very Merry Xmas and a Happy New Year.

Paddy

sumamura

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Thursday, December 24, 2009 - 03:35 am:

}}

sumamura

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Thursday, December 24, 2009 - 03:36 am:

MERRY X'MAS

AND

HAPPY NEW YEAR

ingot54

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Thursday, December 24, 2009 - 06:11 am:

Well 1121.60 has been the scene of another resistance battle. Seems to be a cap at this level.

I am unable to access my own charting right now, but I can see that the 1116 support level did indeed repel the retracement.

As we know, anything can happen in the next 2 hours - and particularly in the final 30 mins of trading.

Meanwhile, there is a bit of a metronome between Support and Resistance continuing the ranging theme.

Once a breakout is established, we may finally get some direction. Meanwhile the $USD is showing a bit of weakness, having retreated 0.6 points on the Index - significant in that it has enjoyed a run from 74.3 to 78.3 in just 4 weeks.

Is the carry trade returning? Selling the USD in favour of the high-yielding AUD and NZD seems to have been a popular ploy until the recent $USD strength.

If the USD does indeed weaken significantly now, I am expecting a retreat in the S&P 500 Index.

The rejection of 1121 levels (selling pressure, or shorting activity) is a poignant reminder of the fickle nature of markets. We may still see a secondary correction in markets - the USD housing "recovery" is based on rising sales supported by falling prices - hardly a confident market.

Opportunistic ... yeah!

And hardly the stuff to build an economy upon. The USA needs to expand its productive capacity/productive output/employment numbers before we can safely put this recession to rest - no matter what the numbers are saying. The S&P 500 has a PE much higher now than in the last heady days of the 2007 Bull market.

I'd like to see the PE pull back a bit before sounding the "all clear".

The rejection of the 1121 level may yet signal a watershed for 2010.

Interesting.

The attached 10 Min chart seem to be struggling to push any higher for the moment.

S&P500_10Min

bib

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Thursday, December 24, 2009 - 07:40 am:

Hi ingot54, the latest Trading Diary summarises the current situation pretty well. Ultimately markets depend on economic growth which is fuelled by debt. Non financial private debt growth is falling - bad for markets. US interest rates are near zero which holds the market up.
Talk about being caught between a rock and a hard place!!
The US has to service massive government debt and relies on growth which it can tax to the hilt to pay it off!!
In AUS plenty still have jobs so i think we can expect to be fleeced pretty soon.

msparks

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Thursday, December 24, 2009 - 10:20 pm:

It looks like it is going up to me.

Merry XMas guys.

"I have my own unique system "
"I manage to lose money in bull and in bear markets "

ingot54

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Thursday, December 24, 2009 - 10:25 pm:

msparks wrote on Thursday, December 24, 2009 - 10:20 pm:
It looks like it is going up to me.

That settles it then.

It's a "sell"!

Merry Christmas to you too mate
and all trading tragics on IC!

denverd1

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Monday, December 28, 2009 - 12:58 pm:

Trading tragics huh?

not seeing a lot of steam in either direction at this point. Of 31 main sectors, I find 5 or 6 that are showing strength. They are: consumer durables, electronics, computer software, internet, real estate and health services.

Hope you all had a wonderful Christmas!

Denver

boomer

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Monday, December 28, 2009 - 03:49 pm:

Fibonacci with a twist.

50% is not actually a fib number, however it is a number that commands considerable respect from those who value fibonacci ratio's as part of their trading plan.

The XJO paused for a moment at the 50% retracement mark as it came off its 2007 high, only to continue onto a final low of 3121. The interesting bit is that the bounce off the March 09 low seems to be struggling to push through this mark on the way back up. That 50% level now seems to be acting as resistance. I hadn't thought of fib numbers in this way before. Just a bit of weekend musing ... but it does kind of make sense that support could become resistance when approached from the opposite direction.

I favour a view that an ABC correction is in play in response to 2003-2007 run up, and we may be close to the start of the final (C) leg of that journey.

I also don't rule out a more bullish view that what I have labelled (B) is simply the start of a new uptrend.

Cheers
Boomer

boomer

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Monday, December 28, 2009 - 06:46 pm:

And here's another chart with a Fib twist. This time it's an even longer term monthly chart.

Interestingly, there was minor support at 38.6% retracement and now its banging up against that same level as resistance.

Cheers
Boomer

captain_chaza

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Monday, December 28, 2009 - 07:17 pm:

Ahoy Boomer

"Bull Markets" do that Sort of Thing

They make a Liar of every Bearish skipper in any and all time-frames
Just Relax and Enjoy the Experience

It's as simple as that!

Salute and Thanks for your great Ocean Pilot Charts

"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.

"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate."
Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893

"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897

ken

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Monday, December 28, 2009 - 08:08 pm:

Hello Boomer,

Have to disagree with you - 50% is a Fibonacci ratio.

The Fibonacci series starts 1,1,2,3,5,8,13 etc.

Fib ratios are mostly between adjacent numbers in the series, hence 1/2 qualifies as does 2/3,3/5,5/8 etc. These latter ones mostly approximate to 0.618 when the numbers get big but 0.5 is also a Fib. ratio.

Ken

sumamura

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Tuesday, December 29, 2009 - 12:35 am:

pl have a look at weekly levels of various indices ....

weekly levels for world indices

boomer

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Tuesday, December 29, 2009 - 12:45 am:

Ken,

According to investopedia, as well as other sources that I've read over time your POV doesn't hold up. Anyway, it was not my intention to debate the relevance of 50% as a fib ratio. I was trying to elicit some sort of response on the charts that I posted and the seeming resistance being demonstrated as the price action approached this level from the opposite direction.

In addition, the longer term chart, (the second chart), seemed to support the general thrust of my idea with the 38.2% level demonstrating similar resistance characteristics as it approached from the opposite direction.

Often trading is about weight of evidence, I've posted 2 charts that support a bit of confluence in the concept that I'm alluding to. Maybe it's just coincidence, maybe not.

Potentially it is different way of thinking about how these ratio's may apply specifically to some corrections in certain circumstances. I was kind of hoping IC members might be interested in new ways of thinking, sharing ideas and growing as a community through robust discussion.

Ken FWIW, here is a link that challenges your POV.
http://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/05/FibonacciRetracement.asp

We never know exactly how the right hand side of the chart will play out, I've put forward a speculative concept ahead of time as opposed to coming in after the fact if it does it indeed come to pass. Only time will tell.

I'll just watch it from the sidelines now, highly doubtful that I'll post again on IC, not that I was a regular poster anyhow. That's me done.

Boomer

colin_twiggs

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Tuesday, December 29, 2009 - 08:46 am:

I have always believed that 0.5 is not truly a Fibonacci number. All other Fib numbers are part of the series 1/1.618^n -- that is 1/1.618^0, 1/1.618^1, 1/1.618^2, 1/1.618^3,etc. and gives the series 1, 0.618, 0.382, 0.236,......and so on. See Incredible Charts: Fibonacci Numbers for further background.

ingot54

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Tuesday, December 29, 2009 - 02:27 pm:

Regardless of the official position, it remains that the 50% level is statistically and technically significant, in the same way as the other levels. I have found that price does not respond as definitively as it used to, to specific fibs levels.

Rather, I find it safer to set zones, particularly in the higher TF, which may or may not produce a turning point. The 50% level is one of the zones I use. The old reliable fibs lines are now beginning to blur.

What I have found more useful, is that confluence of fibs with other significant levels, eg Support/Resistance, and the intersection of/with trend lines, produces some interesting results. The higher the liquidity of the instrument, the more significant points of confluence become.

Perhaps we could discuss this in another thread?

The S&P500 broke out of its consolidation on 22/12/09 after respecting the resistance zone of 1112 to 1117 in the preceding 3 weeks. But the daily candle which formed at the close this morning in NY is full of "guess what I'm going to do next!"

The spinning top is sending a message of indecision to the market - one that I am heeding, particularly since there were more players in the market today than there were on Christmas eve.

.......... S&P500_Daily

.

For the persistent, a look at the 4H TF is even less encouraging. While volume seemed to pick up, commitment didn't. It seems that once price broke free of the range, it didn't know what to do with itself.

There is no conviction in this kind of activity, and unless you are scalping, or have an aggressive style, it is best to remain a spectator, imv.

Technically the last 8 hrs trading are interesting.

We have a fine shooting star - fairly strong reversal here, followed by what could be interpreted as either a hammer, or a hanging man, depending on whether you put much faith in the previous shooting star as a bearish reversal signal.

For mine, I would class the final candle as a hanging man, and in combination with the other activity - rally, shooting star etc it appears to me to be bearish.

If I had to come off the fence on this, my "guess" would be 60% in favour of the bears here, with that last candle coming at the top of a rally as it does.

S&P500_4H

.

The world loves to find and follow a strong leader.

Unfortunately we can find nothing strong or leading about the market's activity at present.

captain_chaza

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Tuesday, December 29, 2009 - 11:14 pm:

Ahoy Boomer
Nobody I have ever met Trades on "The Fibs"

Take Fib for what it really is!
It's just great BBQ Palaver to spend the time

Salute and Gods' speed

PS Show me a "Trader" based on FIBS and I will show you a LIAR!

ingot54

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Thursday, December 31, 2009 - 03:04 pm:

Still no closer to resolution - the market is indeed in holiday mode! Market participants are absent, thus no lead.

But it is interesting to observe the market in all phases - not just at times of high liquidity.

The daily chart shows the beginning of consolidation.

S&P500_Daily

... as does the 4H chart ...

S&P500_4H

Reminds me of the Rising Three Methods pattern, though it is not strictly text-book. That pattern is a continuation pattern, and as such we could expect the S&P500 to break upwards of 1130 tonight ... !

A quick check of the USD_Index shows the completion of a declining head and Shoulders on the 3-day chart, so I expect the markets to do well tonight in the USA, as the USD gets sold off. (AUDUSD traders should consider going long perhaps?)

And that could well drive the S&P500 to 1140 or more - nothing would surprise in this low liquidity situation.

I think tonight the bias is towards a rally.

EDIT: On the last two trading days of 2008 (30-31/12/08) the S&P500 rallied 31.33 points.

On Friday 2nd January 2009, the rally was a further 28.80 points, adding 60.13 points for the week.

(Message edited by INGOT54 on December 31, 2009)

rdumas

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Thursday, December 31, 2009 - 03:38 pm:

Hi Ingot54,

My simple take on it is that we are in the midst of a 3 wave pattern where we have completed wave A up with a range of around 36 points and we will eventually complete a wave B at around the 1114 level. Then using wave equality I have the final wave C ending up around the 1150 level.

Again simplistically I have used a double top scenario to pick a likely low for the B wave.

I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

captain_chaza

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Thursday, December 31, 2009 - 05:00 pm:

Ahoy Brave but always Loyal Sea-Cadet #54

I gave you 5 stars

It is worth remembering that Santa HAS A GREAT LOVE for Australian Rules Football and more than often hand-passes on the rally to the Brave and Loyal Men of the Sea (Men as in Mankind)

Monday the 4th Jan will be another Mutual Fund Monday in America and "The Money" should really start flowing in
(in a BIG way} considering how much fun they have missed out on in the American Financial year 2009

The best year in our Generation !

The question is
"Who is going to Sell them some stock"

NOT ME !

Re The Low Liquidity/Volume over the last 2(TWO) weeks

The Bears who have simply missed the boat often claim
"But the Volumes are Low" as if that excuses them from missing out

Only a Mother would believe that Lie!

The fact is that the quality of the Volume is done by professionals
Only the Amateurs and Hobby share traders go on holidays in these times
The Professionals take their holidays when THE WIND and SEAS PERMITS

The Professionals could just as easily Sold the market down
BUT they Didn't!

It is also worth remembering that a decent sized POLL (say 10%) one day before an Election will predict the outcome of that Election

Supply and Demand is Omnipotent
Not the size of the vote/Volume IMHO

Salute and Gods' speed in the New year (The Year of the Tiger) to Both You and your better half Josie

She is a Lady and Don't treat her like an Object

(Message edited by Captain_Chaza on December 31, 2009)

nicola

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Thursday, December 31, 2009 - 09:34 pm:

Mon Capitanio, Mon Capitanio, re. your last post.

What courage you have.
What contrarian spirit.

While the rest of us shudder
at a possible spectacular crash,
you look beyond the clouds of despair
beginning to crowd the different media.

What Vision mon Capitanio.
What Vision!!!

Even with a time lapse camera
your resolute expression does not change.
I gasp at at your ability to negotiate
the elements of a wild sea.

Your humble servant salutes you Capitanio.
As low as to thy foot do i bend in gratitude.

A Happy New Year to you.

(And let's hope you are right)

rdumas

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Friday, January 01, 2010 - 08:48 am:

Well so far phase one of my scenario is playing out (ie, move to 1114 level). Last night the S&P500 closed at 1115.1. As the current action looks like a wave 3 I would expect a bit of a kick up in the market (wave 4) before the final wave (wave 5) takes it down to the 1114 level.

Once that is complete I would expect phase 2 of the scenario (a trip to around 1150) to commence.

I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

sumamura

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Monday, January 04, 2010 - 04:35 am:

pl have a look at weekly levels of various indices ....
weekly levels for world indices

rdumas

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Tuesday, January 05, 2010 - 08:56 am:

Following is a post that I put on the "Our Daily Bread" thread that is relevant to this thread.

==================================================================================

Hi Ody,

The following 2 charts show the difference in action of the XJO and S&P500 over the recent few weeks. What it shows is that the XJO has been actually more bullish than the S&P500 whilst the latter has been more volatile.

Note that the S&P500 is continuing to follow the scenario that I posted on the 30th December 2009 which has an interim target level of 1150.

If we want to look at the potential final target for the S&P500 then we would need to look at a longer term view. The following is another chart that I shared privately with others in recent times where I suggested a couple of scenarios that might play out. Ignore the suggested potential EW counts and focus mainly on the ranges of the higher level waves A, B and C. This higher level view has a final target for the S&P500 of 1171.

I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

hershy

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Friday, January 08, 2010 - 06:00 am:

Hi Rudi,
Does this headline for an article on MarketWatch ring your bell ?

You'll find the article here:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/sp-500-clears-major-technical-hurdle-2010-01-05?link=kiosk

Cheers.

I've been on my cruise ship for 3 days and have not left my cabin yet. There are two doors in my cabin. One leads to the bathroom and the other has a sign on the door knob that says "Do not disturb".

http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/

rdumas

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Friday, January 08, 2010 - 08:28 am:

It sure does ring bells Hershy. The piper is playing and the stream of mice are in hot pursuit unknowingly heading for the precipice with gay abandon.

I might be being a little premature but I suspect that some time next week the trap will be activated and the pain will begin.

Cheers

Rudy (with a "y"

)

I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

mastersl46

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Sunday, January 10, 2010 - 12:10 am:

Hi Everybody,
This message is going out to paddy.
There is a chart you posted in September on the SPX showing a Large Triangle from 2007 to September 2009.
Would you be able to post that major triangle chart again please as I would like to see where the index is in relation to it now.
I understand I could do it myself but it's not easy getting the top trend line correct & it seems very close to perfect in your chart.
The touching of the top trend line is the probable key moment for the next downturn. If your chart shows that it has exceeded it by now then I would be a bit stumped on the wave count but if not, thats the place to sell.
Looking for a top in the end of Jan. If anyone follows Elliot, then I feel that we are to begin a tiny 3rd if the US Markets go up substantially on Monday.
My view is we are in a C wave (869 - 1172??) of the larger B wave of the whole trend,(Wave A being 1576 - 666, Wave B being 666 to 1172??) & in this C wave , we are about to see a 3rd of the larger 5th of the larger 5th. The recurring moves from 1080 - 1120 was a 4th of a 5th of the C wave.
If the market goes to 1160+, we could see a retracement to 1140 - 1150 creating a 4th wave & then a final 5th wave of the whole trend up should see us at 1165 - 1172.
When the SPX retraces under 1130 (Top of Wave 1) then the top could be in place. The bottom line is 1130 above = small 4th & 5th to come, if these don't occur & it retraces below 1130, my wave count is incorrect but a major top could be in place by then.
Hope this all makes sense!!
1160 - 1172 seems the most likely scenario for the top at the moment but your triangle chart may have the answer.
Many thanks if you do this for us.
All the best to everyone trading & get ready for the sell buttons to go "CLICK" !!!!

sumamura

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Sunday, January 10, 2010 - 04:30 am:

my annual levels .....

annual forecast

sumamura

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Sunday, January 10, 2010 - 04:33 am:

for my annual levels - trigger should be two consecutive weekly closes above or below the trigger level ..... same for stoploss as well after the trade is triggered ......

this should be very useful for trading LEAPs .....

rdumas

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Sunday, January 10, 2010 - 12:46 pm:

Hi Masterl46,

Unless I am totally misreading your post you appear to be implying that the C wave from 869 upwards is an impulse wave. Unfortunately when looking at the individual legs of this pattern it becomes obvious that the pattern is not an impulse wave but more than likely a Triple 3 corrective pattern. In a Triple 3 pattern the legs are labeled W, X, Y, XX and Z. The thing that a Triple Three and an impulse wave have in common is the fact that they both have 5 legs in their pattern. The difference in the patterns however is that the impulse is comprised of 3 impulse waves and 2 corrective waves and the Triple Three is comprised of 5 corrective wave patterns.

In my post 2955 I provide a possible wave count of the last leg (wave Z) of that pattern. As with the other legs it is composed of a 3 wave (ABC) corrective pattern. Once complete it should bring to an end the multi-month rally that started back in March 2009. The thing that we do appear to have in common is that we will probably peak at somewhere near the 1171 level. Naturally enough this level is not cast in stone because the market doesn't work that way. It is however a reasonable target based on previous ranges.

Where the exact peak occurs is neither here nor there. The important message in both your post and mine is that the next phase (heading south) of the current bear market is rapidly approaching.

I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

paddy

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Sunday, January 10, 2010 - 12:56 pm:

Hi Masters 146: Sorry for delay . I thought I had sent a post earlier but it appears to be lost in cyberspace. I have not reposted the chart because on both log and arithmetic scale charts the upper boundary of the "Great Triangle" [ GT ] has been broken by the price of the SPX 500 Index.

I believe that the GT is actually a "red herring" disguising the "hook" that is comprised of two legs - 1576.09 - 666.79 and 666.79 to a point yet to be decided.

Forget about the GT and draw an Ascending Channel . Then draw in horizontal lines for values[ rounded to whole numbers ]:

1147 - 1158 - 1173 - 1193 - 1230 .

You will see that your suggested target values are essentially the same . The value 1193 intersects the upper boundary of the Ascending Channel and could be a surprise target .

Also note that Rudy has the Index heading for the same general level[s] using other methods of determination.

The final value 1230 is essentially the same as the F0.618 value of 1228 for retracement of the 1576.09 - 666.79 correction .

The Time for completion of the Bear Market Rally may be close at hand . That is if Obie's PPT and the GS computers don't have any more surprises for the Market. I think that they will have orders to delay the start of Leg C until the corrupted health corruption bill has been rammed down the throats of American populace.

I will try and post a chart . Hope this is of help to you.

Adios

Paddy

sumamura

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Sunday, January 10, 2010 - 09:35 pm:

pl have a look at weekly levels of various indices ....

weekly levels for world indices

sumamura

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Post Number: 165
Registered: 09-2004

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Monday, January 18, 2010 - 11:56 am:

pl have a look at weekly levels of various indices ....

weekly levels for world indices

sumamura

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Post Number: 166
Registered: 09-2004

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Sunday, January 24, 2010 - 11:25 pm:

pl have a look at weekly levels of various indices ....

weekly levels for world indices

my many american friends have made tonnes of money last week ......

sway

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Tuesday, January 26, 2010 - 08:47 am:

Mr Sumamura

Thanks for posting your recommendations. If I understand your system correctly, Monday trade on the US market would have triggered a long position in the S&P500 and short positions in the Dow and NASDAQ? Is that correct.

Cheers
Sway

This is not a recommendation or advice. As they say .... DYOR.

sumamura

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Wednesday, January 27, 2010 - 01:04 am:

sway

pl read my post of 16th july 2009.

that makes it little more clear.

sumamura

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Wednesday, January 27, 2010 - 01:10 am:

sway

i was away. i hv just checked yesterdays intra charts.

s&P seems to hv triggered long and nasdaq has triggered short. no trigger yet on dow.

sumamura

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Monday, February 01, 2010 - 11:51 am:

pl have a look at weekly levels of various indices ....

weekly levels for world indices

sumamura

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Post Number: 170
Registered: 09-2004

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Tuesday, February 09, 2010 - 01:33 pm:

pl have a look at weekly levels of various indices .... (sorry for delayed posting )

weekly levels for world indices

sumamura

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Monday, February 15, 2010 - 01:46 am:

pl have a look at weekly levels of various indices ....

weekly levels for world indices

sumamura

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Post Number: 172
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Monday, February 22, 2010 - 05:50 am:

pl have a look at weekly levels of various indices ....

weekly levels for world indices

sumamura

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Post Number: 173
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Monday, March 01, 2010 - 01:02 pm:

pl have a look at weekly levels of various indices ....

weekly levels for world indices

sumamura

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Monday, March 08, 2010 - 09:46 pm:

pl have a look at weekly levels of various indices ....

weekly levels for world indices

yogiinoz

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Tuesday, March 09, 2010 - 09:15 pm:

Hi folks,

..... expecting the European mess to continue throughout
2010, with some particularly nasty stuff, around:

... 03082010
... 10082010 (currencies ... UK???)
... 13-31082010 (a very critical period for Europe)
... September 2010 ..... 24-27092010
and October ... more negative news, about 04102010 ...

.... and, if you think it is over in USA ... just wait,
until December 2010 and again, in March-April 2011 .....
some seriously negative stuff expected, during those
periods, unfortunately ..... (:

have a great day

paul

:-)