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     kruupy
Member
Username: kruupy
Post Number: 26
Registered: 07-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, January 06, 2006 - 12:30 am: | 
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macka,
I think you are right, I should wait a few days for confirmation. As I am a short term trader I like to look at the short term trends, but you are right in that I should still take into account the medium and long term trends in my decision making.
Also after I wrote that post I took a look at the sectors and the only one that caught my eye technically as a sector for shorting was Info Tech, hmmm, this evidence is not very supportive for my analysis on the XAO...
Kruupy.
(Message edited by kruupy on January 06, 2006)
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eyes
Member
Username: eyes
Post Number: 50
Registered: 06-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, January 06, 2006 - 09:27 am: |
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My target for XAO: lets say 4920, before going short.
See chart below.
Support at 4320.
Cheers,
eyes
INCREDIBLE OFFER - only $12 USD per month
30 day FREE trial -
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"The only way you can fail is to quit"
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vermante
Member
Username: vermante
Post Number: 548
Registered: 11-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, January 25, 2006 - 05:05 pm: |
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XAO testing previous high on strong volume - Any contrarians willing to short ?Risk/Reward high .
Cheers
Vermante
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endorphin
Member
Username: endorphin
Post Number: 21
Registered: 09-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, January 25, 2006 - 02:52 pm: |
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Well that was interesting, XAO at the time of writing bounced off point 2 of a point from it's high high, can it break it today ??
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userxx
Member
Username: userxx
Post Number: 30
Registered: 02-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, January 26, 2006 - 11:30 am: |
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the eyes have it - How many times have you heard that one, anyway i almost agree with eyes, except my target is 4970 , however I think we could be in for a long downtrend after that. The US is not giving us any direction other than down, so I think we will follow.
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ricardon
Member
Username: ricardon
Post Number: 23
Registered: 09-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, January 26, 2006 - 05:16 pm: |
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ok, userxx mulling over your post and need to vent some of my unbridled optimism.
China not the USA is playing the dominent part in my thinking about the next 12 months. China and gowing world tension. Most are expecting China to continue to grow at 8 to 9%. This can only mean increased demand. Thus Australia will continue to benefit at least until the mines run dry or some idiot sells the mines holus-bolus to foreign companies.
Tension with Islamist radicals will not goaway in the next 12 months. So I expect several spikes in the oil/gold prices.
Suggestions from the U.N. anticipate Australia growing at 2.9% just below the world average of 3%. The downside being our domestic economy.
So what is the outlook? In my thinking : Minerals and energy have to continue to rise. Local companies with domestic markets down. Gold steadily up and oil up in bounces. For the ASX200 I think a long term downtrend unlikely.
Investment strategy? I will continue to work the ASX200, Heath,Materials and Energy sectors while trying to find ways of tying investments to China's 9% growth as against Australias 2.9%.
I would appreciate others thoughts on getting stronger linkage to China / India. I use CMC for the leverage and thus have open a number of options that are still too dangerous to use. ( A little knowledge is a dangerous thing 
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userxx
Member
Username: userxx
Post Number: 34
Registered: 02-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, February 05, 2006 - 05:49 pm: |
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This chart may tell us where the XAO stands at the moment.Any one care to comment on its validity ?
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userxx
Member
Username: userxx
Post Number: 35
Registered: 02-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, February 05, 2006 - 06:14 pm: |
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forgot to add that March 2006 will be 23 years and 8 months from what appears to be the start of the Bull run in July 82, a nice Fibonacci number...
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hershy
Member
Username: hershy
Post Number: 1191
Registered: 10-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, February 05, 2006 - 06:22 pm: |
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I would not have the trendlines where you have placed them.
Firstly, if you are looking at such a long range chart why choose a daily format and not a weekly or even a monthly view ?
Try this:
The road to success is usually under construction.
http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/
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ricardon
Member
Username: ricardon
Post Number: 28
Registered: 09-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, February 05, 2006 - 06:29 pm: |
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Hershy, from your trend lines could we interpret the last move as a re-valuation of the Aust resource market. An acceptance that the prices are here to stay and that the ASX is thus worth more?
If that is the case then we will see a minor re-tracement and then a resumption of the long term trend channel stepped up to its new height.
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hershy
Member
Username: hershy
Post Number: 1192
Registered: 10-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, February 05, 2006 - 07:31 pm: |
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Ricardon, the only thing you can assume from my chart that I joined some dots and came up with one valid trendline. Which is not to say that there are not other trendlines that by touching more tops may be more valid than mine. You can also assume that is a calamity should occur of Krakatoan proportions and the XAO should drop to as low as say, 30,028, the XAO would still have an intact primary uptrend. If the calamity is not quite of that proportion and the XAO only drops to around 40,000 it is possible that the trendline would survive henceforth act as trend support.
Other than that.............
The road to success is usually under construction.
http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/
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fibonacci
Member
Username: fibonacci
Post Number: 102
Registered: 10-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, February 05, 2006 - 08:11 pm: |
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userxx,
What fibonacci number is that?
John
You've got to
know when to hold 'em
know when to fold 'em.
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captain_chaza
Member
Username: captain_chaza
Post Number: 1698
Registered: 02-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, February 05, 2006 - 08:19 pm: |
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Ahoy Userxx
How can you ignore the mid- eighties Boom and Bust as if it did not happen?
I lived through it and I promise it DID happen and it was huge! Best seen in LOG
How anybody could ignore such a HUGE $ pivot point in history is well beyond this skipper!????!!!!!
Bon Voyage and Gods speed
PS Would you ignore the 1929 crash as well in the development of a trendline as if it did not happen either to meet your preconceived FA analysis?
PPS I hope this helps you draft more respectable trendlines in the future?
At least to me anyway?
"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.
"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate."
Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893
"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897
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captain_chaza
Member
Username: captain_chaza
Post Number: 1700
Registered: 02-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, February 05, 2006 - 11:35 pm: |
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Crikey!
I just noticed Hershy also ignores major peaks and probably troughs?
Other opinions are most welcomed on major Pivot Points in setting trendlines
Do YOU just draw through them as if they do not exist?
Otherwise I know what will happen
Some may say I am picking on Hershy
WHICH I am not!
We just seem to disagree on a few very vital TA interpretations as I see it from time to time
Nothing personal!
Just Pure TA!
Bon Voyage and Gods speed
"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.
"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate."
Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893
"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897
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msparks
Member
Username: |
