The Hindenburg Omen - New H&L

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elisabeth

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Post Number: 351
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Sunday, July 02, 2006 - 06:53 am:

(New thread started - original posts here::
http://www.incrediblecharts.com/userscripts/forums/show.plx?9/613928)

An up-to-date New Highs/Lows chart – bear in mind that this is based only on data back to March ’05, ie not nearly enough history, so comments are exploratory.

h&l

All the lighter blue bars represent outside weeks, however the first two with pink lower areas show market turning points in early May last year and May this year as per the chart below. It looks as if these outside weeks may be significant when there is a large difference between the % of new Highs and new Lows. As has happened again last week

The All Ords also looks very similar to May last year at the turnaround for the continuation of the uptrend with MACD showing hidden bullish divergence between Oct and June which indicates continuation of the uptrend.

ords

Just adds to the bullish comments already made on the forum though I am with Colin on confirmation with a break through 5080.

Elisabeth

elisabeth

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Sunday, December 10, 2006 - 06:08 am:

The 52 week new Hs and Ls still have me intrigued.

I've enhanced my chart to show XAO as a yellow line - it is based on the weekly close, so it misses intra-week spikes/dips, while the bars represent stocks which hit 52 wk Hs and Ls on any day of the week - already a flaw in the setup. Perhaps I should base XAO on the difference between the H and the L for the week?

All the turquoise and lilac bars are outside bars. The bars with bright pink at points 1, 3 and 4, I've named BOBs = blowoff outside bars - two of these picked a reversal, the third picked the stop of a downswing, though not an immediate reversal.

Waiting now for a BOB to appear with a pink upper…. will post the chart again if it does. (Look at how the weekly close XAO is rounding.)

Take it all with a grain of salt!

Elisabeth

hind

hilarius

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Sunday, December 10, 2006 - 08:57 pm:

Elisabeth

Excellent work ... 5 stars from me

This is the sort of thing which makes this Forum so interesting

I am sure someone will ring the bell if we are all asleep when the top is reached in the Northern Hemisphere

Will that be too late for us who live on the underside?

With Best Wishes

Hilarius

I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

spider

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Monday, December 11, 2006 - 11:58 am:

5 stars from me too kid, well done, and thank you ........... way too lazy to do this for myself!

elisabeth

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Saturday, December 30, 2006 - 04:37 am:

Three double tops now:
#1 with inside bar and #2 a slight outside bar - before corrections.

#3, the latest is neither inside nor outside, ie 2nd bar has slightly lower top. It's followed by an inside bar which is divergent to XAO.

It's looking a lot like January 06, preceding a small correction before the next leg up.

Musings on a project only - much safer to do your own analysis on the XAO chart.

Happy new year to all!
Elisabeth

h&l

ingot54

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Monday, February 26, 2007 - 08:22 pm:

Hi Elisabeth

It may be timely to re-examine the Hindenburg effect.

Have you any updates?

Kind regards

Ingot

Keep Smiling - Don't look back

Trading style: Chartist Artist _ Breakouts and Shakeouts.

elisabeth

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Tuesday, February 27, 2007 - 06:39 pm:

Hi Ingot,

The highs and lows. Well, I don't have a clue! Any opinions welcome. (You could almost say pennant forming, how long will it take, which way will it break...)

As an aside, I do have something else which gives a bearish slant.

The ASX shortlist gives the quantity of shortsold securities as a percentage of the total quantity of the security on issue. For example, TIM had 2.78% short borrowings as of the shortlist for last Thursday.

I keep the monthly high of the ratio of actual shorts vs the total shorts on the ASX short list, ie all the shorts that have short positions, divided by all the shorts on the ASX list. (Note that I only update my shorts list every Saturday, so anything could happen on the other days. The High I keep is the High for all the Thursdays in a month)

Here's the data for the last couple of years - sorry, but I add each month at the top, ie read from the bottom up.

You can see I haven't kept these records in a bear market, but it's clear the bear minded are increasing significantly.

Elisabeth

ingot54

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Tuesday, February 27, 2007 - 07:22 pm:

Thank you Elisabeth.

I must say I have not been enlightened any further as a result of that! It seems that there are fewer stocks making new lows, but also few stocks making new highs too.

So since the BOB a few weeks ago, there has been a decline in the number of stocks making new highs, but the XAO is powering higher - clearly this is diversion and I think significant coming after the BOB.

Now I did not understand one bit of the Shorts ratio table you posted.

Could you give an explanation in layman's terms (just for me) please?

The best I can understand is that there is an increasing interest in shorting activity .... ?

Keep Smiling - Don't look back

Trading style: Chartist Artist _ Breakouts and Shakeouts.

elisabeth

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Saturday, March 10, 2007 - 05:09 am:

Make of it what you will. The first green arrow points to the divergence up to the week XAO closed above 6000. The second green arrow points to divergence this week….

Ingot, yes exactly - there was a marked increase in shorting during February which is still increasing. This week it is at 0.95% - the highest by far since I started tracking it - lots of bears out there.

(That number is simply the average percentage of all short borrowings, eg ZFX is at 2.45% short borrowings, ie 2.45% of the total of ZFX shares were being shorted on Thursday. At the lower end, TNE was at 0.01%. My number just averages any number above 0.00%.)

Elisabeth

kate

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Sunday, March 11, 2007 - 07:28 am:

Elisabeth,
This is getting interesting, I began getting different signals from around 1st February and started selling up then. I kept 3 or 4 core stocks for another couple of weeks and then sold them and was only holding LHG when we had the nosedive.

There looks like there might be a pattern emerging, don't know a good mathematician do you?

Regards
Kate

elisabeth

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Saturday, December 22, 2007 - 05:07 am:

An update - apology for the quality, blurred with shrinking to fit.

h&l

holycow

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Saturday, December 22, 2007 - 09:22 am:

Elisabeth,

I have added a little of my interpretation of your graph/chart, please feel free to comment if I'd got it right...

1) Prior to '07 the trend of the weekly new high/low seems to be "in sync" with the XAO as shown by the dotted lines I'd added

2) Starting with the first down arrow, the trend of the weekly new H/L seems to be declining which is diverging with the XAO - I would read this to be bearish.

3) The top reading of 20 made back in Apr '06 and Jan '07 seems to be the ath and they made a distinctive double top pattern. It is worth noting that after the second peak, the weekly new H/L has been declining consistently, my interpretation here is the market is running out of momentum, there's less buying, more selling and more shorting - am I right here?

There three declining peaks after the first down arrow showing them to be "bear market rallies", ie, they are counter trend rallies in an overall down trending market. This is in divergence with the XAO because the index has been masked by the top market leaders - the so called magnificent seven.

4) The up arrow shows the latest weekly low although is quite extreme, it is not as extreme comparing with the August plunge, I guess we need to continue monitoring the "recovery" from here - if the weekly new H/L were to be able to make a higher peak than the recent high (Oct '07, a score of about 13), then, I will believe the market is still bullish, else, I think we should treat the rally as another bear market rally (which means it is not suitable for long term buy and hold approach, other than the mag. seven).

5) Keep up the good work, I think this set of data complement Perler's ADV/DEC chart quite well.

Cheers and Merry Xmas.

HC

... one day...!

rdumas

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Saturday, December 22, 2007 - 12:15 pm:

Elisabeth and Holy Cow,

Thank you so much for your chart Elisabeth. I haven't seen too many charts that show the comparison between the All Ords and new weekly highs and lows so clearly.

Holy Cow I find your analysis of the chart absolutely brilliant. It does show a distinct difference between the bull market periods and the new weekly hi's and low's inter-action. Your analysis makes a lot of sense and the next few months should be very interesting.