Archive through August 10, 2005

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rederob

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Post Number: 635
Registered: 10-2002

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Thursday, February 24, 2005 - 07:34 pm:

iwillwin
if you can "save" the chart, then you can usually post it.
i save charts into "my pictures", play with them a bit, then "upload" them here.
there are guides to do it somewhere here in IC i believe.
good luck

iwillwin

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Post Number: 48
Registered: 10-2004

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Friday, February 25, 2005 - 04:50 am:

Hi

thanks, i now have the problem sorted.

i hope this chart uploads!

right, its quite straight forward i have bollinger bands set at 95 periods and also EMA set at 95. it is a 4 hour chart.

the diagonal lines which you can see were drawn before price moved in those directions, i have marked these with black arrows as you can see.

im actually amazed at how the price actually moves more or less perfectly within these bands, all i have done put the lines in from the lows pointing upward and from the highs downwards with only looking at the chart.

i did this because i realise price action is everything and i need to know whats happening at every moment.

the bollingers and EMA are put there just to make sure price is really doing what i think.

i want feed back please and some real constructive criticism on the pros and cons of this system which i am developing.

what i really love about it is you can use it on any instrument FX, crude anything and its the same.

Also, back testing is not required as this does future testing if you know what i mean! as channels have been drawn before price moved so if it follows that means its happening!

thanks for your time! 4 hour chart DJIA

alann

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Post Number: 74
Registered: 05-2004

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Sunday, February 27, 2005 - 01:51 am:

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF THE DJIAA

The DJIA ran up against resistance again this past week as it attempted another rally into high territory only this time it did not make it past the high of last week. This week saw the DOW post lower highs and lower lows. The DOW posted a high of 10871.5 this past week compared to the high of 10889.8 set last week. The low was 10583.6 compared to a low of 10682.3 recorded last week. One more week of lower highs will signal the start of a new downtrend.

I have included the MACD Histogram this week instead of the Directional Movement System because it shows a bearish divergence between this indicator and price. This bearish divergence warns of a future trend reversal.

Also please note, although not shown in the graph, that the ADX line (Directional Movement System) is still below both +DI and -DI and is still below 20 and pointing down again. This indicator signals that the market is still range bound and extremely weak.

The higher probability is still down for the DOW. If this next week proves to be another down week then I believe that we will still be looking at about 10350 to 10400 by mid march.

Alann,

I cannot predict the future I can only see possibilities.

mosaic1996

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Post Number: 1063
Registered: 01-2003

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Monday, February 28, 2005 - 08:56 am:

Hi AlanN,

I see last weeks action as fairly positive with new 52 week closing high, i.e., it has confirmed my 'up' bias.

New 52 week high on the close: recovering all of tuesday shock news of South Korea(?) et. al. stating that they intend to diversify out of US assets. Down draught respected the support line. This has to be a positive indicator.

How important is this support/resistance line in the longterm context?

It looks like it is around the mean of the level DJIAA spent a couple of years at the turn of the century - technically significant, and it is understandable that there is some resistance at this level.

Cheers,
Mosaic

mosaic1996

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Post Number: 1064
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Monday, February 28, 2005 - 09:12 am:

Label A on the above chart would probably have technical significance as it was the turning point for the DJIAA. The DJIAA got hammered as a consequence of 9/11, it then made a sharp recovery to point A in March 2002, only to dive just as sharply to new lower lows in Oct 2002.

It is worth noting that the volatility or magnitude of the swings (for the moment at least) are getting smaller.

Cheers,
Mosaic

alann

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Post Number: 75
Registered: 05-2004

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Tuesday, March 01, 2005 - 08:35 am:

mosaic

Actually the highest closing price over the last 52 weeks was 10854.5 set on 12/28/04.

Alann,

I cannot predict the future I can only see possibilities.

mosaic1996

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Tuesday, March 01, 2005 - 09:08 am:

Hi AlanN,

If I am using weekly charts I use friday close as I think that it is the day of the week that gives the best indication of the trend as I believe that less short term traders hold over weekends.

Hence I would consider tuesday 28/12 as an inter-period high, and not a close level/high. Hence, I see last friday's close as a new 52 week high based on a weekly analysis period. I also believe that distortions can happen on thin trading days around major holidays such as christmas.

However, having said all that, at this stage (chart pattern) I don't see the new high or close to new high as being that material in my bullish-bias assessment.

The most pertinent aspects of the chart include
a) the long-term significance of the resistance/support line that I have drawn
b) the fact that it has broken through resistance, retraced back through support (old resistance around 10,600) and then recovered to fairly convincingly break through the resistance again.
c) that fact that tuesday's very bad news down draught respected support, and the subsequent rapid recovery (close?) to a new 52 week closing high.
d) and all this in the face of a rising commodity prices, and especially the oil price

This is a common pattern as very significant resistance becomes (very significant?) support. It reflects the psychological tug of war between the bulls and the bears.

As we both know, there is nothing certain in 'the art of the chart'. All I am saying is that I am fairly confident (80%?) thait is heading higher from here. Time will tell!

Cheers,
Mosaic

(Message edited by mosaic1996 on March 01, 2005)

alann

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Post Number: 76
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Tuesday, March 01, 2005 - 09:13 am:

Got it. Thanks!

Alann,

I cannot predict the future I can only see possibilities.

alann

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Post Number: 78
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Friday, March 04, 2005 - 05:47 am:

The higher probability is still down for the DOW. If this week continues to prove to be another down week then I believe that we will still be looking at about 10350 to 10400 by mid march. However, if downside momentum does not kick in soon I may have to revise my target up a little.

See last TA at:
http://www.incrediblecharts.com/userscripts/forums/show.plx?tpc=6&post=60595#POS T60595

Although I believe that the current direction for the DJIA is down I also believe that the DOW will turn around by mid March and take another run at breaking new high ground.

(Message edited by Alann on March 04, 2005)

(Message edited by Alann on March 04, 2005)

Alann,

I cannot predict the future I can only see possibilities.

alann

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Post Number: 79
Registered: 05-2004

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Sunday, March 06, 2005 - 02:38 am:

SHORT TERM TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF THE DJIA

FORECAST
=======
Short Term: 11,100 by mid to end of March with the possibility of a pull back to the 10850 area in the days ahead. Bullish.
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish

COMMENTARY
==========
The DJIA broke into new high territory this past Friday, not all time high territory but the highest in the last three years.

In my last post I mentioned that I was still looking for a DOW of 10350 to 10400 if this past week continued to prove to be another down week. Well it did not happen. Let me explain my position and what happened. Looking at the daily chart above we see that there were two immediate levels of resistance for the DOW to have to break through to move into new high three year territory. The first Level of resistance was the daily close set on 12/28/04 at 10854 (See Flag A). The second level of resistance was the daily high set on 12/27/04 at 10868 (See Flag B). As you can see from the chart, the first level of resistance was attacked several times but was never broken through until this past Wednesday March 2 (See Flag D) when the DOW broke through the first level of resistance and then attacked the second level of resistance before it retreated and closed below its opening price. Then on Thursday we had a nearly exact repeat performance. The DOW again broke through the first level of resistance and then again attacked the second level of resistance (See Flag E) before it again retreated to close below both levels of resistance. Add to that the fact that each day this last week, Monday through Thursday, closed below the closing price of 10842 set on Friday a week ago (See Flag C). Then add to all that I saw divergences in the MACD Histogram (See Flag 1), the +DI in the Directional Movement System (See Flag 2), and the Momentum Indicator (See Flag 3), and it all spelled out that the DOW should move lower. But then came the economic news on Friday yesterday of stronger than expected job creation and the absence of inflation worries that sent the DOW up into new high three year old territory breaking through both levels of resistance and closing at 10941. This was all I needed to see to change my outlook for the near future from one of short term bearishness to short term bullishness.

My current outlook for the near term is a DOW of 11,100 sometime during the last half of March. I’m still concerned about the divergences I see on the chart which could lead to a pull back in the days ahead thus slowing the progress towards 11,100, but we’ll have to wait and see what the market dishes out.

Looking beyond 11,100 I believe we will see another short term bear market cycle before the DOW breaks through into all time high territory.

For now Short term, Intermediate term, and long term outlook is all bullish with a possible short term pull back in the near future.

Alann,

I cannot predict the future I can only see possibilities.

hailoh

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Post Number: 107
Registered: 04-2003

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Sunday, March 06, 2005 - 02:30 pm:

Alann, should you be so quick to change your analysis based on the one day surge?

There appear to be a number of prior cases, indicated on the accompanying chart, where a surge at the top of a run that has already shown MACD crossover and other indicators of a retracement is in fact followed by subsequent red candle weeks.

The commentaries about the DOW performance are getting quite inconsistent, so is there a case for sticking with what the indicators are suggesting - a pullback in the short to medium term?

DJIA Weekly

mosaic1996

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Monday, March 07, 2005 - 08:32 am:

AlanN,

Glad to see that you have come to the otherside - i.e., you are willing to change your mind.

As an aside, I wouldn't put it all down to job creation. From memory the number of non-farm payroll increase was 226,000 compared to a consensus number of around 200,000 with top estimates at 300,000. These numbers are fairly volatile from month to month.

Bottom line this was not an exceptional number.

The markets performance over the last month or so has been nothing short of exceptional given the price of oil. And on friday oil was up again, and so were transports - go figure!

Hailoh,

The real world situation going forward can range from very bearish through neutral to very bullish for the days, months, years ahead depending on your timeframe(s). It is our job to (attempt to) interpret the chart to give us insight into the real world or the future direction of the chart based on past price and volume action.

We read to chart and then determine how bullish or bearish we are, and how confident we are in our interpretation. It is also OK (quite common) to have no position, i.e., we can't derive a message from the chart with any confidence.

Given that you are bearish or undecided, I would be interested in what would need to happen on the chart to make you bullish.

My take on the most likely forward looking scenario...

I think that the next resistance will be in the 11,300 to 11,400 band based on past weekly closes (and inter-period highs). It is also around 1,000 points since Iraqi election (same as increase after US election). I suspect that there will be a retrace from 11,400 before having a crack at the all time high.

On the above chart, point A is the US elections, and point B is the Iraqi elections. Peace is likely to continue to breakout on the geopolitical front, driving world markets higher.

A retrace in the oil price to mid-$40's could be the catalyst to propel the DOW through this resistance, and even to new all time highs.

Time will tell!

Cheers,
Mosaic

alann

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Post Number: 80
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Tuesday, March 08, 2005 - 01:53 am:

Mosaic

I never have been a devout Bear and will switch between bullish and bearish based upon how I read the charts. For now I will ride the Bull along with you. I agree the next level of resistance is in the 11,300 to 11,400 area. However, between now and then I think we could have a retracement to around 10850 area before a run at 11,100. Whether or not the retracement comes I think that once we hit 11,100 the market could peak and trend down for awhile.

See Post above:
http://www.incrediblecharts.com/userscripts/forums/show.plx?tpc=6&post=61138#POS T61138

Alann,

I cannot predict the future I can only see possibilities.

hailoh

Member

Post Number: 109
Registered: 04-2003