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     fibonacci
Member
Username: fibonacci
Post Number: 132
Registered: 10-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, March 30, 2006 - 11:59 pm: | 
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Good evening hailoh,
Many times during this boom I've "worried" about an impending top. Many well credentialled tipsheet authors are calling for us to be concerned now, very concerned.
Now with all that you want "us" to be concerned about the absolute value of the MACD. I can't see why.
Now it is about equal to the level of '87 but XAO is now nearly double that level so MACD would have to be about 300 rather than current 150 to equate levels. So that doesn't worry ME.
Return line 2 might limit progress soon. Now that could be a worry but if it's exceeded then the trend is actually accelerating.
4 year cycle of lows could be a worry [I haven't been pedantic here, just recording them where they fell] giving a recent range of September '06 to March '07 as a likely end to a fall a fall which would have to start reasonably soon.
The other point of note is how this "boom" has a long way to go to equal "82 to '87 in time and extent [assuming '03 as start]. Not that any two booms are the same.
Conclusion: Be alert not alarmed, after all it's going up!
The evidence of this trend failing can only be found in price.
Footnote: Robert Prechter has famously called for a crash of biblical proportions and now the DJIA is nearing the "make or break" level. Even he states that if the ATH high is exceeded then Elliotticians will be re-labelling the waves AGAIN. That point is only 534 points [4.54%] away.
Maybe he will soon be right. Now that would be a worry.
John
You've got to
know when to hold 'em
know when to fold 'em.
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msparks
Member
Username: msparks
Post Number: 408
Registered: 10-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, March 31, 2006 - 12:39 am: |
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Hi Hailoh
Have to waite to get blown off yet.
Wonder how the handicap is going.
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ingot54
Member
Username: ingot54
Post Number: 1289
Registered: 05-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, April 07, 2006 - 11:00 pm: |
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Here's a comparison with the XJO - Tuesdays are becoming very predictable - 8 out of past 10 Tuesdays have seen a fall in the XJO (and XAO of course). A few points profit in there for index traders, maybe?
Certainly cracking along right now - the action is pure North East!
Keep Smiling
Trading style :CFD's predominantly. Looking for ways to enter CFD trading over long term.
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kate
Member
Username: kate
Post Number: 290
Registered: 04-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, April 08, 2006 - 09:54 am: |
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Anybody else get the feeling its nearly time to bail? Can't believe the amount of sludge on the bottom being stirred up.
Kate
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userxx
Member
Username: userxx
Post Number: 39
Registered: 02-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, April 08, 2006 - 02:23 pm: |
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Have to be getting close now, i have heard the 5300 number bandied around recently, how that is derived I have no idea
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ingot54
Member
Username: ingot54
Post Number: 1295
Registered: 05-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, April 08, 2006 - 02:55 pm: |
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With the additional computer power, business analysis, forward projections,employment and business models, contracts etc, and in fact anything that makes business (the market) tick, one would think that market crashes would not be on the agenda anymore!
Looking over the XAO and XJO history, there have been some corrections to take the "heat" out of the pressure-cooker!
This is not happening on this rally. Are the bulls believing their own stories now? Why is there not profit-taking?
Has the "fear of missing out on the top" or the "greed of taking that last dollar off the table" set in?
The index certainly looks set to correct. I post a few charts of vfarious periods, to illustrate that we always think the same thing. Remember when ...
Keep Smiling
Trading style :CFD's predominantly. Looking for ways to enter CFD trading over long term.
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betlong
Member
Username: betlong
Post Number: 27
Registered: 07-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, April 08, 2006 - 04:13 pm: |
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Ingot,
Probably not the intended message, but that graph looks like good evidence for a long term buy and hold strategy.
The corrections look minor in the context of about a 35% rise since Oct 04.
Regards
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chart_rider
Member
Username: chart_rider
Post Number: 163
Registered: 01-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, April 08, 2006 - 05:59 pm: |
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userx
The equal square extension based upon low of 3886 in May to the high of 4625 in September gives a resistance line at 5364.
Incidently, the level of 5085, staddled by the last two weekly bars, corresponds to both the 61% extension of the upthrust mentioned above, as well as 61% extension of the upthrust from a low in August 1982 to the high in September 1987. This level was negotiated easily on the way up, and could now act as a local support level.
On the time axis, 55 weeks (fibonacci number) from the high in the second week of March, coincides with this weeks (local high?) bar.
CR
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ingot54
Member
Username: ingot54
Post Number: 1297
Registered: 05-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, April 08, 2006 - 06:06 pm: |
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It is very interesting that from Technical Analysis, we can sense a correction on the way.
But there is also Fundamental Analysis evidence creeping up, suggesting a correction. We are just one event away from the trigger, imho.
When you look at the YIELD from investing in stocks, it is generally accep[ted that if you can not get better than the cash rate, then cash is safer.
Conversely, if you can get a good cash rate, why invest in shares?
With the US Fed Reserve edging up rates, they have been taking the heat out of the DOW and their other markets. Now, they are really in a bind.
With the employment numbers coming in higher than expected, the worry is inflation in the US. To combat inflation, interest rates used to be raised, historically. (This method of controlling inflation has been debunked, but the economists still do it, ostensibly to control inflation, but if my info is correct, it actually causes inflation.)
If the interest rates are raised further, for whatever reason, then cash will become quite attractive again, and we may see the correction we expect, as investors leave the markets for the security of institutional havens for their dollars.
That could be the "Trigger Event."
JMV.
Keep Smiling
Trading style :CFD's predominantly. Looking for ways to enter CFD trading over long term.
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bulltql
Member
Username: bulltql
Post Number: 32
Registered: 08-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, April 08, 2006 - 07:38 pm: |
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All,
Looking at my chart I think the All Ord has definately topped for now. I think a pullback towards the 4980 area (Bold statement). Most of the other Sector will pulback as well, Only Material Sector is gonna go strong if my memory serves me right. Sorry no chart provided, hopefully I can provide it some other time.
Cheers,
BullTQL
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hilarius
Member
Username: hilarius
Post Number: 1702
Registered: 04-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, April 08, 2006 - 11:05 pm: |
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Good Evening
I expect volcanic panic buying before the next major crash, with 10% being added to market values now the impossible target of 5000 has been breached
A minor correction of a mere 200 or 300 points is nothing
Night Night
Hilarius
I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities
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redrover
Member
Username: redrover
Post Number: 259
Registered: 04-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, April 08, 2006 - 11:49 pm: |
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[Quote]: kate said "Anybody else get the feeling its nearly time to bail? Can't believe the amount of sludge on the bottom being stirred up. "
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justice
Member
Username: justice
Post Number: 562
Registered: 01-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, April 09, 2006 - 12:16 am: |
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last peak to peak on the weekly chart was 27 weeks.
xao correction now probable IMO.
... XXXX2 ... :-)
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chriswillz
Member
Username: chriswillz
Post Number: 175
Registered: 04-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, April 09, 2006 - 01:43 am: |
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Hello all,
It may be a high probability trade to short xjo futures at signs of weakness in US markets on Monday night. Two 1% drops in our market(assuming Monday follows through with DOw and local futures leads) would surely see profit taking and a correction imo.
Cheers
Chris
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endorphin
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