Archive through November 20, 2005

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ken

Member

Post Number: 263
Registered: 04-2003

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Saturday, September 10, 2005 - 06:51 pm:

Hello all,

This is my current view, complete with yesterday's breakout, although not convincing on volume.

Price is the leader of the market crowd. (Elder)
Members of the crowd follow the leader and experience the same emotions as each other.
To be independent of the crowd we must not change our behaviour with price.

moleman

Member

Post Number: 131
Registered: 10-2003

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Thursday, September 15, 2005 - 08:21 pm:

Hi

Market WrapUp of 14/9 on Financial Sense is interesting. I'd be interested in hearing of other reports on the effect the JOBS act will have on the US markets over the next few months.

cheers

moleman

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

"Earlier I said the dollar, stocks and bonds should all be lower, but they’re not! WHY?? In a nutshell, the Jobs Creation Act of 2004 gives U.S. corporations a tax break on repatriated earnings from foreign subsidiaries. Normally the money that comes home to the parent U.S. corporations is taxed at 35%, but on October 22, 2004 the legislation was passed reducing the tax to 5% until Oct. 22, 2005. In my research I found that though the legislation was signed into law, there was no guidance from the government until early this year. It is estimated that as much as $400 billion could come back into U.S. dollars…some already has, but based on the late guidance, the money was “back-loaded” to come in right about NOW…and there could be a rush in October to take advantage of the enormous corporate subsidy the Federal government has offered. When the foreign currencies are sold, dollars are bought to bring the money home. The money coming in is expected to lower interest rates by moving into bonds, and could add as much as 5% to 6% to the S&P500 stock index."

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userxx

Member

Post Number: 9
Registered: 02-2005

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Saturday, September 17, 2005 - 12:30 pm:

An ominous diamond pattern forming on the Dow, which will only be nullified if resistance at 10700 is removed. The pattern could still play out over the next 5 months or so, and a clearer picture would develop as long as it is contained within the pattern drawn

userxx

Member

Post Number: 11
Registered: 02-2005

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Sunday, September 25, 2005 - 01:09 pm:

Bollinger Bands tightening on the monthly charts of the DOW. We could be in for a powerful move one way or the other soon.

walkerd2

Member

Post Number: 2
Registered: 11-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Thursday, September 29, 2005 - 09:41 am:

I see that a triple doji has appeared on the S&P500 - any ideas on the implications of this, or is it really simple - indecision, no one knows, X 3 ??

I found some info that said a double doji indicates a major move in some direction is coming real soon, and maybe this triple is a "new" pattern.

yogiinoz

Member

Post Number: 1322
Registered: 10-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, October 14, 2005 - 01:26 am:

Hi folks,

DOW/XJO ..... so far, our analysis posted above,
on 04072005 has had us pointed in the right
direction overall ..... here's a little more info:

As traders look for positions in defensive stocks,
one sector that is due for a run is health and
service sector, particularly those servicing
institutions, like hospitals and prisons, as well
as those institutions themselves, like aged care,
hospitals,prison security, etc ..... :-)

Should start to see evidence of this, from about
27th Oct 2005, with final rallies and highs from 21-to-29112005 ..... ???

Soon after, from 02122005 - thru - 19122005 may be
a particularly nasty time to be holding any stocks .....

..... and HDR, in particular.

More about that later.

happy days

yogi

:-)

yogiinoz

Member

Post Number: 1346
Registered: 10-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, October 21, 2005 - 06:14 pm:

Hi folks,

XJO/DOW ..... we saw a BIG hammer candle formed by
the price action on the XJO chart today, ahead of
an anticipated similar pattern, for the DOW on 21102005 (?)

Looking ahead, we will likely see further market volatility,
especially with an anticipated slide in oil prices. This
has prompted some traders to start looking at other
market sectors, too.

Looking ahead ..... sector rotation ... 21102005 ...
sectorrotationupdate21102005.pdf (31.3 k)

For further sector analysis, please download file above.

have a great weekend

yogi

:-)

yogiinoz

Member

Post Number: 1380
Registered: 10-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Tuesday, November 08, 2005 - 03:45 pm:

Hi folks,

DOW ..... sector rotation analysis above, looking
good so far ..... oil down, DOW up on 07 Nov 2005 ... :-)

happy days

yogi

:-)

ingot54

Member

Post Number: 929
Registered: 05-2004

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Wednesday, November 16, 2005 - 10:57 am:

Interesting times for the DJIA

djia_1

Different views show different inter-connecting resistance points. (Logarithmic views are almost identical).

This week may be critical for the DOW, as 10,700 needs to be smashed, to put the bogey behind.

Djia_2

After visiting 10,700 five or six times, like an ant at a picnic table, it surely must be time for the index to "put up or shut up".

Personally, I feel a big black bear is about to awaken, despite the predictions of a "Golden Era" for investors about to be ushered in.

I think we have had the golden era, and it is about to be summarily ushered out!

Why - the uncertainty has gone on too long. When an index as large as the DJIA, or the DJIAA (very little difference) is unable to demonstrate strength at a level, it might mean the underlying constituents lack the fundamental strength to burst through.

Something odious here - the recent nervous jitters early-to-mid-October serve to underpin weakness in the US Industrials.

If the strength was there, it should have shown by now.

How many bounces does the ball need before scoring the hoop?

Maybe this will be the first time that years ending in a "5" do NOT end on a year-high. We still have to get to 10,941 for a closing high, and 11,027 for year high.

JMV

Keep Smiling

Trading style :Short Term and CFD's predominantly

ingot54

Member

Post Number: 930
Registered: 05-2004

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Thursday, November 17, 2005 - 12:43 am:

Well ... failed again! But don't despair ...it's only Wednesday (Tuesday in U S of A).

Let's wait until Friday!

DJIA_4

... and another view ... It was an outside day!

DJIA_3

Keep Smiling

Trading style :Short Term and CFD's predominantly

archer

Member

Post Number: 1111
Registered: 11-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Thursday, November 17, 2005 - 03:36 pm:

Dec 31 2004 DOW close was 10,783
All it needs to do is close the year above that for an up year
And with the Christmas rally yet to come i think it will
do it easy

stoian

Member

Post Number: 210
Registered: 03-2004

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Thursday, November 17, 2005 - 07:06 pm:

Dear Ingot54 and all others,

I wonder every time i read your post (and maybe also for ever, which remains my deadly sin).
Because you try every time TO FIND OUT, AND AFTER THAT EVEN TO FOLLOW, WHAT YOU ARE THINKING TO BE THE VERY=MOST PROBABLE DIRECTION=PATTERN FOR A TENDENCE.
I said about the TENDENCE (an AVERAGE evolution ON SHORT TIME, from 1 to 3 years) AND NOT ABOUT THE TREND, because you know already, that TREND CAN BE DETERMINED ONLY FOR AN EVOLUTION WITHIN A PERIOD OF TIME EXCEEDING AT LEAST 3 OR 5 YEARS (medium term) TILL 10 YEARS OR MORE (long term).
So, you should FIRST OF ALL TO FIND THE CORRECT TREND, AND ONLY AFTER THAT YOU CAN EXTRACT=TO PULL OUT YOUR TENDENCE FOR THE NEXT SHORT INTERVAL=PERIOD OF TIME.
The pattern you are looking for, WILL APPEAR TO YOU ON THE CHART MUCH MORE CLEARLY AND RELEVANT AS YOU CAN THINK=IMAGINE.
I said also about A VERY=MOST PROBABLE DIRECTION=PATTERN FOR ONE OF THE BOTH VERY DIFFERENT : TENDENCE AND TREND, because both are APPEARING=PRODUCING INSIDE OF A PROBABILITY FIELD, BUT THE PROBABILITIES FOR EACH TYPE OF DIRECTION IN PART ARE VERY DIFFERENT: THAT BECAUSE A MEAN VALUE IN TIME, CANNOT EVER APPEAR IN THE SAME PROBABILITY LEVEL OR AT LEAST A FIELD OF LEVELS LIKE/WITH THE ONE FIELD=LEVEL OF/FOR THE LOCAL=INDIVIDUAL VALUES (WHERE THE LAST TYPE OF VALUES ARE SERVING TOGETHER TO BUILD AND CALCULATE THEIR MEAN VALUE).
You are not consciousness about the fact, that IF YOU WILL TAKE INTO CONSIDERATION=CALCULATION ONLY A SHORT EVOLUTION=1-3 YEARS, YOU WILL BE NEVER ABLE TO DETERMINE THE VERY=MOST PROBABLE AND THEREFORE ALSO THE CORRECT LEVEL=OR AT LEAST A FIELD OF LEVELS FOR ANY OF THE LOCAL=INDIVIDUAL VALUES (MAYBE DAILY VALUES, OR WEEKLY VALUES).
BECAUSE OF THE LACK=SHORTAGE OF INFORMATION ABOUT THE PRICE LEVELS, YOU WILL CANNOT DETERMINE THE MOST PROBABLE (AND THEREFORE ALSO CORRECT) DIRECTION FOR THE STRING=SERIES OF THE MEAN VALUES, YOU HAVE TO DETERMINE FIRST OF ALL???????
You cannot understand indeed, that YOU TRY TO SEEK THE SUCCESS (TO GUESS THE LEVEL FOR THE PRICE FOR TOMORROW, FOR THE NEXT WEEK, NEXT MONTH, NEXT YEAR) WITHIN A FIELD WHERE THE PROBABILITY OF GUESS IS TOO SMALL, BECAUSE OF THE EXISTENCE OF OTHER HUNDRED OR MAYBE THOUSAND POSSIBILITIES OF APPEARANCE=PRODUCING IT ON OTHER LEVEL, WHICH CAN BE SOME TIMES EQUIVALENT THAT IS ALSO NOT EXISTING????
Because the FIELD=INTERVAL FOR THE EXISTENCE AND MANIFESTATION OF PRICE within you try to guess, IS EVEN CALLING THE INTERVAL OF RISK=VOLATILITY.
So, for the future, if you need to do a better forecast like ever, take into your consideration that you have to determine at first=first of all THE VOLATILITY FOR THE STRING=SERIES OF THE MEAN VALUES, AND ONLY AFTER THAT YOU SHOULD BE CONCERNED TO FIND OUT THE LEVEL=FILED OF LEVELS FOR THE LOCAL=INDIVIDUAL VALUES, like the RULE OF FISHER FOR ADDITION OF DISPERSION=SCATTERING=RISK=VOLATILTY said: THE TOTAL=WHOLE RISK=VOLATILITY=DISPERSION IS EQUAL WITH THE SUM OF:
- THE RISK=DISPERSION=VOLATILITY=SCATTERING OF THE STRING=SERIES FOR THE THEORETICAL=CALCULATED MEAN VALUES AGAINST THE STRING=SERIES OF THE REAL MEAN VALUES;
- THE RISK=DISPERSION=VOLATILITY=SCATTERING OF THE STRING=SERIES FOR THE INDIVIDUAL=LOCAL VALUES AGAINST THE STRING=SERIES FOR THE THEORETICAL=CALCULATED MEAN VALUES.

Regards,
Doru Stoian

hailoh

Member

Post Number: 159
Registered: 04-2003

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Thursday, November 17, 2005 - 10:15 pm:

Malcolm Frazer has a lot to answer for.

I think I'll cash in today's profits on a good bottle of red and think about that Stoian.

(Just in case you've forgotten,MF is the former leader who indelibly told us that life wasn't meant to be easy)

stoian

Member

Post Number: 212