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What Price Russia?

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hailoh

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Post Number: 208
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Saturday, January 13, 2007 - 08:36 pm:

China and India have filled our horizons ad nauseam over the past couple of years, and for good reason, so I was surprised recently to realise that Russia has surplanted Saudia Arabia as the world's leading oil producer (The Economist).

Given the current rate of economic development in Russia, the determination of Putin, the historical fatalism and toughness of Russia and the long memory of humiliation by the USA, what price that opportunities presented during the the final act of stupidity by the US in Iraq won't be siezed upon with Russian tenacity?

Anyone else who has used a Kalaznikov will know just how effective Russian firepower can be on a scatterbrained foe.

I would not be writing off oil, gold and silver in 2007 by a long shot.

kate

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Monday, January 15, 2007 - 08:12 am:

Hailoh
I don't think the Russian relationship with the US is as important as the one they have with Europe and Scandinavia. Russia supplies Finland with 79% of their oil supply, Sweden, 29%, Germany, 26% Italy, 18% and all the ex Soviet bloc countries in varying degrees.
I think a few cages were rattled last week when the oil supply was cut off due to the little tiff with Belarus.
There is now talk of a post industrial revolution in Europe in the next decade as the EU governments throw huge sums of money into alternative forms of energy.
Meanwhile, I hope Russia stops being such a bully, there is enough tension already, I wouldn't want to see it escalate into anything more.

Kate

hailoh

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Wednesday, January 17, 2007 - 05:51 pm:

Kate,

Russia has just provided Iran with a state of the art missile air defence system, open ended. The US is moving carriers into the region.

Short odds in my book that they will test the Ruski technology.

As long as the US is prepared to go for broke with successive Governments across the Middle East oil empire there has to be instability. Who is the bully?

If you want a real nightmare scenario, apply this sort of brinksmanship to international electronic information systems.

kate

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Saturday, January 20, 2007 - 07:18 am:

Hailoh
I don't think the US are stupid enough to start anything further, financially it would be a complete disaster for the economy, besides they wouldn't get the support from the Democrats.
However, they have been stupid before so there is always a risk, albeit small.
ING published some information regarding the fallout should the US or Israel attack Iran (see link below). My personal opinion is that neither will happen unless there is serious provocation.

http://www.rawprint.com/images/Iran07a.pdf

Regards
Kate

PS We seem to have gone off on a bit of a tangent.

hailoh

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Sunday, January 21, 2007 - 04:34 pm:

Agree Kate.

On a life scale the market will very quickly deliver judgement if rational analysis doesn't support the doomsdaying.

Maybe it's just Stage 3 tremors.

tony

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Monday, January 22, 2007 - 11:17 am:

It will happen and it will happen sooner than average people realizing it. But this time it is not a complete occupation, just air strikes.

Oil price has been carefully lowered down to $50. US government has lift the ban of oil drilling near North Pole. Biofuel production in US rises gradually, that even corn price has been lifted when grain price is down. US Oil reserve keeps rising even when oil price was high. They don't do it for no reason.

BTW, don't forget Bush said that God told him to do so last time...