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     jimdene
Member
Username: jimdene
Post Number: 114
Registered: 07-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, March 06, 2007 - 10:58 pm: |  
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I would appreciate forum discussion on trading xjo alone, xao alone or trading either one or other of these, with sectors such as Materials, Industries, Financial, etc..
Having found success at last and deciding on this being the direction that I intend to continue with, I wonder if it is necessary trading sectors, when they follow the trending of xao and xjo anyway
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msparks
Member
Username: msparks
Post Number: 799
Registered: 10-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, March 07, 2007 - 12:31 pm: |
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Hi Jim
I suggest the one with the least spread, and watch it like a hawk.
Cannot see the sense in being long xjo, and short an index sector.
Perhaps you could play the best and worst sectors against each other alone.
Having too many positions opened can be dangerous with cfd's ala Ingot.
Glad you are having success, what is your strategy now that has made you successful ?
Surely not the macd ? It would be too simple a strategy to be succesful wouldn't it ?
I guess as long at it works more often than not and risk is controlled, how can you lose 
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jimdene
Member
Username: jimdene
Post Number: 115
Registered: 07-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, March 08, 2007 - 03:26 pm: |
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Thanks for your suggestions Mark
Yes MACD and Twiggs Money have worked for me from the beginning of Jan to 21 Feb. Having said that I have now gone against my plan and re-entered yesterday, I just couldn't resist those nice green candles. I hope I don't regret it.
It is always a bit frightening, when trading leveraged CFD's, when I see six figure dollar amounts in my CMC trading column, when only actually trading a couple of thousand dollars, dont you think
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jimdene
Member
Username: jimdene
Post Number: 116
Registered: 07-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, March 08, 2007 - 03:31 pm: |
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Mark how do you make out those charts of yours with captions etc.,. Would I be correct in saying, with Microsoft Excel. I am not too crash hot on such things
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msparks
Member
Username: msparks
Post Number: 800
Registered: 10-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, March 08, 2007 - 04:38 pm: |
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Hi Jim
I use snagit.
You could do similar in excel also.
Or print screen and use paint but snagit is the best - cost about 40 bucks i think.
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msparks
Member
Username: msparks
Post Number: 801
Registered: 10-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, March 08, 2007 - 06:28 pm: |
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Try This Jim
http://www.softwarecasa.com/pprod/212401dd.htm?gclid=CJL24aXh5IoCFTQkGAodCTzN3g
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jimdene
Member
Username: jimdene
Post Number: 117
Registered: 07-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, March 08, 2007 - 11:05 pm: |
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Many thanks for the advice on using captions Mark
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msparks
Member
Username: msparks
Post Number: 802
Registered: 10-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, March 09, 2007 - 07:07 am: |
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Looks like you did the right thing getting back in.
One thing for sure is there will be another washout but when ?
Macd is not a good exit indicator, too slow.
Metals chart
OS Markets
US lost some gains but coming back up a bit now
Charts don't show yesterdays close -15 min
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colin_twiggs
Member
Username: colin_twiggs
Post Number: 2831
Registered: 09-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, March 09, 2007 - 08:56 am: |
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There is also excellent freeware:
Gadwin PrintScreen 3.5
http://www.gadwin.com/download/ps_setup.exe
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msparks
Member
Username: msparks
Post Number: 805
Registered: 10-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, March 10, 2007 - 12:39 pm: |
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Hi Jim
I have not ventured into trading the index yet however i think it makes more and more sense to do this if trading is what you want to do in life.
The low margin requirements and dollars per point seem more appealing than trying to second guess what a BHP or a WPL or half a dozen other stocks and commodities will report next.
Seems to me with individual shares there are always the ones that go really well, the ones that do nothing , and the ones that turn down .
So you end up with a pile of shares and about breakeven.
If you sell the ones that turn down they usually recover and you miss getting back into them.(crystallised the loss)
If you sell all the losers and going no where stocks and just keep the "goers", your profit is "in the market" ,
then a correction happens and there goes the profit and you have already crystallised the loses by selling the losers.
It is easy to find an entry indicator.
Whenever there is a correction like we just had i start looking at indicators again trying to find the one that would have got me out before the big fall.
There are some that would have, but you would have been in and out like a rabbit hopping into the burrow if using an indicator to exit before the correction.
If you exited the first day of the fall, well you probably missed a few dividends,crystallised some capital gain tax and well, the market is back to where you sold anyway (unless you got out before the fall somehow)
Then we have the guru's with linear regression and standard deviation but how do you draw a trendline into the unkown with no data.
Is the idea to waite until the trend develops and then draw your trend lines and exit if they are broken ?
Check this out, waiting for a few days after each correction and then draw 2 standard deviation lines and auto extend them.
Most people are drawing historical data with the trend lines attached afterwards.
You see Jim,to find out when to exit, it is not much use looking at data from a few years gone past,history.
Where do you start from to determine which lines mean anything ?
This chart from 04 till now, shows the all ords in the middle of the range
This chart from sept 06 where the latest trend began shows the channel is broken and hence we should have exited.
Go back 10 years and the SD - 2 channel was breached last year on the top side.
So whats the point of these standard deviation channels ?
OK
I want to enter now, lets see where the limits are if i want to work within 2 SD channel ?
Anyway - I was trying to talk about exits and somewhat sidetracked by those channels.
So at 1-2% depost on a 25 dollar per point contract with an index at about 6000 for ease of calculation.
Thats $1500 dollars deposit(or 60 points minus the 4 point spread round trip).
I guess worst case? "say" a 200 point overnight plunge would see you minus 1500 dollars plus 3600 dollars in debt to cfd provider.Considering sept 11 did not plunge that far (200 points) i guess this is worst case although the little hiccup the other day was ~200 point fall.
Perhaps should be working in percentages ?
How the @#$% do you handle the exits Jim ???
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jimdene
Member
Username: jimdene
Post Number: 118
Registered: 07-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, March 10, 2007 - 11:35 pm: |
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Mark just to say thank you seems an inadequate reply, when you have taken so much trouble in helping me, by compiling the charts for me, and so have printed your charts and suggestions and will have a good look tomorrow.
Looking back at Aussie 200 Index and the MACD Daily 26 12 9 Signal Directional Movement system on 29 Sep 06 when the Average Directional Movement index went above the descending Neg directional indicator, I noticed was a good time to enter and then to exit 9 Nov when ADM and Pos directional indicator were descending.
22 Jan. had similar trend movements and so I decided to enter on that date.
Although the 21 Feb saw the ADM still rising, Pos DI was dropping, but still hadn’t crossed Neg DI., and so my exit on 21st was a fluke, but I was just happy to come out on top for a change.
Thanks for the Gadwin download site Colin, and may I take this opportunity of thanking you for the Twiggs money trends, an invaluable help in trading as per the above
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msparks
Member
Username: msparks
Post Number: 810
Registered: 10-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, March 11, 2007 - 05:38 pm: |
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Hi Jim
This is a worry Jim
"and so my exit on 21st was a fluke"
Hence my concern re EXITS, but i have not got the solution.
I have found a way to exit in the 2 trades you mentioned which would have kept you safe and trading with a definite, plan.(after the fact is not really that useful by the way)
First one
I am using weighted close, which is very similar to the close price but smoothed slightly to the actual close price.
The other indicator is just a 7 day simple moving average.
The first chart below shows the price bars, but from here on they will be removed so you can see the weighted close and the 7 day simple moving average.
Notice if you had entered and exited after the cross of these 2 lines you would have been out and safe for both trades completed on the xjo.
(note the xjo on IC and what you are trading on cfd may not be the same animals)
Using close price instead of weighted close, see the cross half way into the first trade below hence we need a weighted close or even typical price to give us less volatile close price.
NB Imagine if we had VWAP - that would be ideal.
Due to the whipsaw effect this would be a very difficult plan to trade with many loss's in any ranging or high volatility market.
However, as purely an exit strategy, would have given a planned exit on the last 2 trades you completed successfully, rather than a " fluke exit ".
Jim, this is only speculation on my part.
Looking at past movements in xjo it seems to work as an exit before the big fall but may cause you to exit without picking up the bulk of the gains in some cases.
Notice it just missed the cross on big fall in September 2005.
September 05
wot ever happened to keep it simple stupid (kiss)
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jimdene
Member
Username: jimdene
Post Number: 119
Registered: 07-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, March 12, 2007 - 07:33 pm: |
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Mark, many thanks for the Weighted Close/SMA Dy 7 charts.
I have checked entry and exits against MACD:Dy:26:12 and MACD Signal Dy 26:12:9 and your charts are certainly at least a day or two ahead on entry and exit, my exit on 21 Feb was actually how your charts gave an exit signal, although MACD crossover had barely touched and then parted again.
My going back in on 7 March was also a signal on SMA Dy 7/WTC for entering, whereas, MACD dy:26:12 is as yet to turn back up across the zero line before crossing up into Signal line and so I will be using SMA Dy7/WTC in future, bearing in mind that I know you didn’t suggest this as a recommendation, but one that I didn’t know existed, for use as an alternative.
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