Consumer Discretionary [XDJ] - stage 2 (RS is rising)
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     new2waix
Member
Username: new2waix
Post Number: 113
Registered: 10-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, November 08, 2003 - 11:53 am: |  
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According to the chart and Colin's Trading Diary - Consumer Discretionary [XDJ] is a rising stage 2.
I have read a lot of sector analysis and stage identification articles & forums, and want to see if it works in practice.
So firstly - is XDJ a good candidate to start? A rising stage 2?
Chart - XDJ:
Stock screening steps: - As recommended by Colin.
(1) Select the desired SECTOR from the drop-down list
(2) Set up a Volume filter or else select an index such as the ASX 200 to remove stocks with insufficient liquidity
(3) Select one of the following filters:
(a) %Price Move: Insert "0" in the 3-Year Minimum field and select "Sort By: 3-Year%Price Move". This will return the stocks in order of their 3-Year relative strength.
(b) Repeat (a) above, but with 1-Year %Price Move.
(c) % Of Price High: Insert "96" in the 6-Month Minimum field. This will return all stocks in the sector that are within 96% of their 6-Month High, useful for detecting breakouts from a stage 1 base.
(d) Repeat the above with 3-Month % Of High.
(e) Also useful for detecting breakouts is the 1-Month %Price Move: insert "5" in the 1-Month Minimum. This returns all stocks that have gained 5% or more in the last month.
Stock scan:
To narrow down the search, I conducted two scan to identify possible trades for next week.
1) All Ords, XDJ sector, Minimum 5% increase in last month
2 All Ords, XDJ Sector, Crossed over 30 MA (Last 14 days)
Results:
1.
AUN
GLB
CAI
SSR
PMP
BRZ
VRL
ALL
TEN
REG
HAM
AHD
FXJ
APN
TAB
FWD
SEV
GUD
WAN
AMC
SBC
PBL
NCP
2.
FLT
ALL
Questions:
So should I check out all these stocks and pick the best one to buy next week?
How can I improve my scan to show 'good' stocks, and limit the amount of 'bad stocks' displayed?
Where do I go from here?
Am I on the right track or horribly lost?
Any advice would be greatly appreciated.
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new2waix
Member
Username: new2waix
Post Number: 142
Registered: 10-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, November 14, 2003 - 08:33 pm: |
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Looks like I'm the only one interested in rising sectors. 
Anyway - here are my results from week one (7/11/03-14/11/03):
XDJ:
Results:
ASX …… Start_Price …… Last_Price …… +/-
AUN …… 0.405 …… 0.40 …… -1.23%
GLB …… 0.55 …… 0.52 …… -5.45%
CAI …… 0.66 …… 0.68 …… 3.03%
SSR …… 0.71 …… 0.71 …… 0.00%
PMP …… 1.19 …… 1.18 …… -0.84%
BRZ …… 1.36 …… 1.27 …… -6.62%
VRL …… 1.95 …… 1.90 …… -2.56%
ALL …… 2.66 …… 2.51 …… -5.64%
TEN …… 2.8 …… 2.78 …… -0.71%
REG …… 2.81 …… 2.84 …… 1.07%
HAM …… 3.28 …… 3.28 …… 0.00%
AHD …… 3.31 …… 3.28 …… -0.91%
FXJ …… 3.64 …… 3.41 …… -6.32%
APN …… 3.93 …… 3.91 …… -0.51%
TAB …… 3.97 …… 4.10 …… 3.27%
FWD …… 5.3 …… 5.52 …… 4.15%
SEV …… 6.05 …… 5.85 …… -3.31%
GUD …… 6.28 …… 6.30 …… 0.32%
WAN …… 6.58 …… 6.61 …… 0.46%
AMC …… 8.45 …… 8.26 …… -2.25%
SBC …… 10.73 …… 10.79 …… 0.56%
PBL …… 12.04 …… 11.71 …… -2.74%
NCP …… 13.12 …… 12.20 …… -7.01%
FLT …… 22.12 …… 21.45 …… -3.03%
TOTAL …… 123.895 …… 121.46 …… -1.97%
XAO …… 32.66 …… 32.15 …… -1.56%
XDJ …… 20.37 …… 19.44 …… -4.57%
Sector closed …… -4.57%
Portfolio closed: …… -1.97%
$100k …… $98,034.63
------------
Feel free to comment on results, set up etc etc
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lightsaber
Member
Username: lightsaber
Post Number: 9
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, September 15, 2004 - 01:45 am: |
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heya new2waix,
looks like consumer disc has come good over the last 6 months or so.
I'm just getting into sectors using CFDs.
Looking at a daily chart over the last year on it, a recent head and shoudlers seems to have formed between late april to early august which could denote a downtrend except the breakout has gone upwards.
Which usually means that a breakout in opposite direction of pattern indicication could be a positive sign of things to come. only thing is that the H&S is fairly long and not so deep, I dont what, if anything the significance of that would be?
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new2waix
Member
Username: new2waix
Post Number: 1119
Registered: 10-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, September 18, 2004 - 06:19 pm: |
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Hey lightsaber,
Forgot about this little exercise - plenty of stand outs since November 2003.
The thinking behind the exercise was to measure the success of purchasing the strongest stocks in an uptrending sector.
I am not too sure where some of the stocks have gone (eg CAI), but a few of the selections have outperformed the sector and the All Ords...
I wonder how much influence NCP has on the XDJ sect?
As for patterns, maybe an inverted H & S? 
n2w
..
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lightsaber
Member
Username: lightsaber
Post Number: 11
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, September 18, 2004 - 07:10 pm: |
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very nice newy, shows some stellar performance from going with the fastest growing stocks.
what do u mean by 'inverted' head & shoulders?
this is what i was referring to below. The false signal could be a bullish sign do you think? (I'm going from the info i've read in the book Getting started in T.A. - Jack Schwager.)
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lightsaber
Member
Username: lightsaber
Post Number: 12
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, September 18, 2004 - 07:54 pm: |
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btw I tried to find the weighting of NCP for the XDJ sector but couldnt find it.
Got the following if its of any use :/
And of course these could change at the end of the year
http://www.merceric.com/knowledgecenter/reportsummary.jhtml?idContent=1136395
S&P/ASX 20 3.80%
S&P/ASX 50 2.72%
S&P/ASX 100 2.37%
S&P/ASX 200 2.21%
S&P/ASX 300 2.17%
All Ordinaries 2.98%
Media (200) 24.09%
Media (300) 23.87%
S&P/ASX 100 Indus 2.85%
S&P/ASX 200 Indus 2.65%
S&P/ASX 300 Indus 2.60%
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