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Author Message  elisabeth Member Username: elisabeth Post Number: 369 Registered: 09-2002 Rating: N/A Votes: 0 Wednesday, September 13, 2006 - 05:45 pm:     Transcript from Lateline last night: "Ali Moore speaks to Morgan Stanley's chief economist, Stephen Roach, over whether the falls in oil, gold and metals prices mark an end to the five year bull run." http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/business/items/200609/s1739529.htm Just one point of view......  smallworld Member Username: smallworld Post Number: 497 Registered: 01-2004 Rating: N/A Votes: 0 Thursday, September 14, 2006 - 12:05 am:     The problem with all these forecasts is that you dont get to know the assumptions that he uses on his model. His paying customers do and they continue monitoring these assumptions to judge how close to the mark he is likely to be. Often they are buying or selling in the market based on how the assumptions are holding, causing gyrations in the market, as when data are released, or rate is changed etc. Without his assumptions, you cant really benefit from his forecast at all and you're better off just reading charts a different view here, probably no better (Message edited by smallworld on September 14, 2006)

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