FMG - Zone for...

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wanabe1

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Monday, May 14, 2007 - 12:41 pm:

On Bollinger as of 11AM, this one seems overextended. Could be pulled back to it's mean.
Or is there a higher zone for the greater fools? ref voila 1

While it may not be a valid comparison, BHP at 31.42 and FMG at 32.00, how hot is FMG.

voila 1..

regards

hibikijoji

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Thursday, May 17, 2007 - 02:56 pm:

Up 7.4% now

Only $12 (USD) per month

tryhay

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Wednesday, January 07, 2009 - 06:12 pm:

wanabe1 wrote on Monday, May 14, 2007 - 12:41 pm:
how hot is FMG

A number of charts are showing consolidation after long term downtrend, and FMG's indicators and Moving Averages are either +ve now or about to cross....

Daily chart:

fmg

Happy trading DYOR

happysam

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Wednesday, January 06, 2010 - 04:46 pm:

Hello Ivor,
I used your triangle method today (wedge to hershy) and I caught a big fish at FMG
It's the biggest fish I have ever caught on my own doing so I am really, really happy.
I can't show you the chart because I don't know how to insert charts into posts.
I think it is a triangle pattern, looks like one to me. If it's not, who cares, I caught a big fish

Like you said elsewhere, money for jam.
Now I have to learn when to sell
Thank-you, thank-you, thank-you

hershy

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Wednesday, January 06, 2010 - 08:12 pm:

Sam
Happy you might be but I have a question or two for you brother.
Your pick was fanbloodytastic.
Good company, good sector, good timing.
So now you caught your fish, what are you going to do with it ?
Do you intend to keep it in the bath tub, will you gut it and cook it for breakfast tomorrow, will you stuff and mount it, what ?

Do you have a plan at all or are you waiting to see what will happen ? Do you expect anything particular to happen ?
Have you set a sell target ? Will it be the entire parcel or a third ? Will you pyramid if it continues to increase in price ?

Take your time in answering these questions. Think of your options carefully. Your answer may well decide the type of trader you will become.

I've been on my cruise ship for 3 days and have not left my cabin yet. There are two doors in my cabin. One leads to the bathroom and the other has a sign on the door knob that says "Do not disturb".

http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/

hershy

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Wednesday, January 06, 2010 - 08:17 pm:

Oh, here is the chart :

happysam

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Wednesday, January 06, 2010 - 10:28 pm:

Hello Hershy,
I don't know what I'm going to do with this fish that's still swimming on the line

Chances are I'm going to play chicken tomorrow morning, grab my money and run. Then watch what it continues to do while sitting on the sideline.
I only started a couple of months ago. On one hand, it wasn't good to start in a hard market. On the other hand, starting in a good market has it's dangers ie. I could get too cocky and end up giving it all back.
My plan is to just keep learning candlestick patterns for now and build up my confidence.
Ivor posts have helped me learn patterns. I have also followed your posts to Ivor to learn "unemotional" trading.
I ignore your posts on waves, that's just too hard for now

What's important to me now is not so much the money but rather, how to master my emotions. How to press the trigger with confidence and, as you posted in the other thread, sell with "no regrets".
It is a journey to conquer my FEAR of the UNKNOWN and curb my GREED.
As for the money, it's just a by-product of the journey. I need the stuff to live but chasing money only brought me unhappiness. It is far more fun to have the money chase me.

How do I insert chart pics ? I can only see how to insert links but I can't see where I upload a .jpg/.png

happysam

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Thursday, January 07, 2010 - 12:35 am:

Please ignore my question re how to post charts. I found the help file

ivor

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Thursday, January 07, 2010 - 09:10 am:

Well done Happy Sam
Hope you do well with FMG

Regards
Ivor

hershy

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Thursday, January 07, 2010 - 07:39 pm:

Hey HappySam,
See my post in the NOD thread. It is an good example of Elliott waves.

Curious to know what you did today.

happysam

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Thursday, January 07, 2010 - 08:51 pm:

Hi Hershy,
I read your post on NOD Elliot waves but .... ummm ... at this point in time, it went above my head. I will have to find a quiet moment to read it again and try and follow them idiot waves.

As for FMG, it started the morning with a surge of blue power so I took the opportunity to buy another parcel at 5.47 and learn pyramiding.
But at lunchtime, the sharks moved in and took a big bite out of my fish, while I was off screen.
But I wasn't too dumb. I took the opportunity to learn stop/losses. Had a set a stop loss at 5.30. Don't know where I got the number from, might have been just a guess.

All in all, I ended up with an average of 5.96% in the bank which I'm really happy with. I don't mind being paid 5.96% to have fun for 2 days, even if the sharks ate alot of it.

FMG now looks like a sunburnt sword fish praying to the heavens but I have her on my watch list. Aitken has a target of $6 in his newsletter. I don't know why. I'm having enough of a challenge learning candlesticks without trying to absorb fundamentals as well.

I think I like BHP better. BHP just swims slowly upstream in the channel. Nice and boring but not so hair raising. I might pyramid BHP. BHP being Billiton. I also do alot of BHP - Buy, Hope, Pray

Thanks for teaching me

ivor

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Thursday, January 07, 2010 - 10:42 pm:

Hello Happy Sam & Others,

Here's some more free info for you, and anyone else that may be interested -
Others on the forum may disagree with me, but this is my
concept of share trading -

FMG has been trading in an upward channel for more than one year. To determine this you just need to draw a support line under all of the lower points. Don't need moving averages and all that stuff. Just need to draw a straight line, that's all.

Then make another line parallel to the support line and move it up to where the share price is making highs.

To make legitimate lines you need at least three hits on them, more hits are better. If the price breaks the line, just make a new one with three hits on it.

Then all you need to do is buy off support, and sell at resistance to continue making money.

The channel for FMG is around $1.60 deep, other shares have different heights. Can work them out by drawing each share's channels.
Some channels are horizontal, some slope upwards, some slope downwards, doesn't really matter.

Think about it, if a particular indicator was predictive, why are there dozens of them, and they are increasing day by day. Because all they tell us is what's already happened, that's all.

And if Charlie Aitken, or anyone else, knew where share prices were going, why is he working for a living? Why doesn't he just collect money by trading shares.

When you Pyramid, you (rhetorical you) are buying up near resistance, and not from support.
In my view pyramiding up is as futile as averaging down,
but I know I'll get plenty of arguments about that.

As far as ascending triangles are concerned, they are continuation patterns, just a pause before the overall trend continues.
Ascending in up trends.
Descending in down trends.

Share trading - how hard is it ?
Buy off support, and sell at resistance.

Regards to all
Ivor

ivor

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Thursday, January 07, 2010 - 10:45 pm:

FMG

hershy

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Friday, January 08, 2010 - 06:08 am:

In a nutshell, you've described it well.

You've left out a few things but basically you're spot on.

happysam

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Friday, January 08, 2010 - 09:19 am:

Thanks Ivor, for the teaching on channels. I didn't have an upper line so I was driving blind.
If I hadn't have been so "emotional", I would also have seen a gap back on 29/9/08. Though it was a long time ago, it suspiciously corresponds with yesterday's long red upper tail. Emotions are expensive.

You wrote -
When you Pyramid, you (rhetorical you) are buying up near resistance, and not from support.

Why would anyone want to buy near resistance instead of support ?
I thought pyramiding meant buying more at support to add to the existing parcel of shares.
Buying at resistance doesn't make sense to me. What am I missing ?

As for Aiken, I got a free couple of months trial of his newsletter when I joined Bell Direct.
I've seen you comment on brokerage elsewhere. In case you're not familiar with Bell, Bell offers trades for $15. The cheapest I have found. Plus Conditional orders are free.
Westpac was charging me $25 a trade and an extra 10 bucks or something for stop/loss if it was triggered.
NRMA members (NSW equiv of RACV/RACQ), get a Bell discount. http://www.belldirect.com.au/nrma/
I don't have full NRMA membership so I don't get the road service assistance. I just have the cheapest membership to give me an NRMA member number for Bell's NRMA discount

CMC Markets is another one I looked at for brokerage but they were a tad more expensive than Bell.

Thank-you again to you and hershy for taking the time to teach us beginners
I know it takes a lot of time to write posts and post charts so I am grateful

Beginners, if you are in here and just lurking, how about start posting. Don't be scared to ask dumb questions. Just put on your L plates and come fishing with us.

Ivor teaches candlestick charting
Hershy teaches Elliot Waves
Peterloh taught me to keep an eye on Bollinger Bands tightening. BTW Bollinger here is not a champagne tho it is a similar concept. Which way will the cork pop.
Rudy teaches range trading
Dug teaches fundamentals on selected shares
Ody bakes our Daily Bread

There are alot of teaches here and as per normal, the teacher appears when the student is ready.
I have learnt alot from hanging out in here. Much more than the course I paid for.

ivor

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Friday, January 08, 2010 - 10:48 am:

Hi Happy Sam

I think Bell Finance own Southern Cross Securities (Charlie Aitken's group).

I'm curious -
What course did you sign up for, and what did you think of it ?

Regards
Ivor

PS How much discount do you receive per trade from Bell for being a member of the NRMA ?

happysam

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Friday, January 08, 2010 - 11:38 am:

Re: Bell - Follow this link
http://www.belldirect.com.au/nrma/

The NRMA discount is the 10th trade refunded ie pay for 9 and get the 10th free. The $15 for the 10th trade is refunded a couple of weeks later. It works out to be $13.50 with the discount.
You also get a once-off $200 put into your Bell cash account after the 1st trade. Pays for the NRMA membership. Ring NRMA www.NRMA.com.au and ask for the cheapest membership. Tell them you don't want the roadside service, you just want NRMA member benefits.
I pay $20 something a year for the membership but there might be a joining fee.

re: the course I did. You don't want to do it. It just taught me to draw lines. It was very valuable for me considering I didn't even know charting software existed until a couple of months ago. But for you, it is a waste of time

The next thing I want to learn is those formulas they input into the software to automatically scan shares to match certain criteria.
But for now, I need to stick to the simple things like where to draw support/resistance lines and recognising candlestick patterns.

ivor

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Friday, January 08, 2010 - 02:08 pm:

Thanks for the info Happysam.

Didn't want to do the course, just curious as to what is was and what you thought of it.

Regards
Ivor

ivor

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Tuesday, January 12, 2010 - 03:54 pm:

Longer term perspective for FMG ?

Has made a long ascending triangle since the beginning of June with an increase of around $2 ($2.50-$4.50), which would predict an ultimate target of around $6.50 or so.

Currently price is consolidating around $5.20.
Could be due for another leg up soon.

Interested in some comments from other forum people.

Regards to all
Ivor

ivor

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Tuesday, January 12, 2010 - 03:58 pm:

baysider

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Thursday, March 11, 2010 - 09:33 am:

Hi all
We haven't discussed FMG for a while, looks a nice triangle to me - which way will she go, that is the question? Talk of 70-80% increases in iron ore might help BUT is it already factored in and might be a 'sell the fact' when the news breaks.
I believe the further along the triangle the chart moves the weaker the breakout.
Love to hear from others on this. What say you Hershy?
fmg

ivor

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Thursday, March 11, 2010 - 12:10 pm:

Hello Baysider

Always interested in FMG, have done well with it in the past. Think it's still in the same uptrending channel where it's been since November '08.
Has formed an interesting wedge formation, which could go either way.
A break above $5.00 could see it up and away, but it's still a work in progress in my opinion.
But does have a history of spiking up rapidly and would warrant watching at this stage.

Regards
Ivor

baysider

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Thursday, March 11, 2010 - 01:00 pm:

I'm seeing the same as you Ivor. $4.60 support being the stop zone (-10%). I'm tempted but after 10 days up the odds significantly favour a pullback for at least a few days don't you think?