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     coyotte
Member
Username: coyotte
Post Number: 194
Registered: 12-2002
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, August 03, 2007 - 10:34 am: |  
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APE
do'es this fit the setup ?
lightly traded though
The "Sea of Uncertainty" is defeated by the nimble vessel "Probability", not the unwieldy vessel "Prediction".
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gdd3
Member
Username: gdd3
Post Number: 159
Registered: 09-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, August 03, 2007 - 03:16 pm: |
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Hi Coyotte...Well, not quite! The set-up day was two day's ago but, altho we had a higher vol. and a "kick-up" in the William's %R(both 3 and 10 day) yesterday, technically we needed a higher high than the set-up day candle.That has not happened!
In cases like these(inside trading day after the set-up day) I like to wait for the next day to see if we get a higher high than the previous day's candle with also higher vol. In APE's case today's action has not gone higher than yesterday's candle($15.60) and indeed has travelled lower than both the last two days(including the set-up day)... with on higher vol....therefore negating the previous set-up day.
Having said that, APE could give us another set-up opportunity either at the end of today or on Monday. Looking at the chart I see two support zones...at abt $15.00 and better around $14.00 BUT we have broken its uptrend channel AND, as you've pointed out this stock is very thinly traded. I think there are better, less risky, examples to be found.
As you would expect, the overall volatility and short-term
-ve sentiment in the the market place over the last week or so it has given many "potential" set-ups in stocks but no confirmations...we just have to be patient.
Two that have performed are HCY and MGX..you want to look at them.
Chart of APE
MGX and HCY(previously mentioned on Monday 23rd of July)
Dolphin
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gdd3
Member
Username: gdd3
Post Number: 161
Registered: 09-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, August 07, 2007 - 11:40 am: |
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Hi Fellow T.A.Z.'s....As mentioned above, with the recent falls in the market, you would expect many stocks would be giving(or approaching)T.A.Z. Set-Ups over the past few days. The caution here, I guess, is identifying those that are showing the best "market" interest(Market Depth or Sector strength for example).
Well a few that have "kicked-in" today(potentially) are GBG, NXS, AGO, SDL, ADY and CIG. I say "potentially" as most need to show improved volumes to be REALLY comfortable.
Here are charts for GBG, NXS and CIG
Last weeks picks, HCY and MGX still going well.
dolphin
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gdd3
Member
Username: gdd3
Post Number: 162
Registered: 09-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, August 07, 2007 - 12:45 pm: |
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Forgot about CUL...you may want to add this one too your watchlist...again vols are the only issue!
Dolphin
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joshua
Member
Username: joshua
Post Number: 8
Registered: 06-2007
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, August 09, 2007 - 02:12 am: |
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thanks dolphin and roach for your feedback regarding stock scanning.
(Message edited by joshua on August 09, 2007)
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joshua
Member
Username: joshua
Post Number: 9
Registered: 06-2007
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, August 09, 2007 - 02:24 am: |
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dolphin, i added cig (among others) to my watch list after reading your above posts, looks to be in a good position after today's close (aug 8).
CIG
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coyotte
Member
Username: coyotte
Post Number: 198
Registered: 12-2002
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, August 09, 2007 - 10:00 am: |
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Instead of just using the Williams Indicator in it's raw state --am looking at the divergence of the indicator in these studies:
Going off Guppy's idea of only taking "indicator divergence" into account when that indicator is in either the OverSold or OverBought areas .
The XJO showed a continual divergence at the highs - interesting to see what the current OverBought area results in.
CEY was and still would appear to be working well with these divergences. --- giving upto several days advanced warnings either Long & Short
Instead of taking Volume in it's raw state may be a idea to instead to look at the "Volume Spread Analysis" --- there is a excellent thread on this at the "Traders Laboratory " Forum Site for those interested .
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The "Sea of Uncertainty" is defeated by the nimble vessel "Probability", not the unwieldy vessel "Prediction".
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gdd3
Member
Username: gdd3
Post Number: 165
Registered: 09-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, August 09, 2007 - 12:31 pm: |
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Hi Coyotte....I must admit, I very rarely look at the Williams%R indicators(remember both the 3 day and the 14 day) in their "raw" state when determining by choices of stocks or the entry decisions.
I also prefer to look for divergences in the Williams%R indicators(will add here that I hope you realise that these indicators can get to, and often do, their extremes...ie O% or -100%...and hence often give "distorted/incorrect" divergences. Also, closing prices have to have either higher highs( with Will%R at lower highs)in the case of bearish divergences, or lower lows(with Will%R at higher lows) for bullish divergences.
Once a stock "gets underway" I also like to place trend support/resistance lines on my indicators(these can be downward sloping as the are time sensitive) to get secondary "set-ups" entries which often prove more powerful. I guess what i am saying here is that, especially with the Williams%R 14 day, it does not get back to below -80% but often finds trendline support around the _50% area.
Incidently, as i have said B4, I like to "marry" both the Williams%R indicators...the reason is quite simple...If you used the Williams%R 3 day only you would be in a stock and out(often far too early) too often!
I also look for "chart" bottoming and topping patterns on the indicators as well to provide me with evidence of a build-up of pressure when a potential set-up appears; a bit like the bottoming pattern you have in your example of the XJO chart over the past week's action for example.
If you have followed this thread from the start you would have read my post number 125(12th of July) which refered to the "5 major requirements(rules)" to satisfy entry via the T.A.Z. method. Maybe i should have added one more...to add more "power/comfort" to a potential entry decision...and that is that the stock price, at set-up, should come from a good support area. Have a re-read of this post, Coyotte... it just may help you find, maybe, better stock choices.
Thanks for your contributions; keep them coming.
dolphin
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gdd3
Member
Username: gdd3
Post Number: 166
Registered: 09-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, August 09, 2007 - 04:25 pm: |
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IMI...Sometimes the T.A.Z. method will give you 2 bites at the cherry, ie a "Double Set-up"(as I like to call it), as IMI has done today and in the past....and with a strong finish to "stumps" sometimes you can "beat" the confirmed entry point because you know all other criteria are already in place!
Cheers
Dolphin
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philr
Member
Username: philr
Post Number: 219
Registered: 04-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, August 09, 2007 - 05:23 pm: |
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gdd3
I agree with you on IMI I also like it. It had a nice kick along today as there was an article in the Herald Sun and that may have helped.
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,22212110-664,00.html
I think from a fundamental view and technical this one may have further to run.
Phil
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albi000
Member
Username: albi000
Post Number: 1
Registered: 08-2007Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, August 09, 2007 - 05:05 pm: |
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Maybe I missed this part of the discussion in this thread but Craig (Creator of the TAZ) says he uses the Williams %R on the entire market to see if its below -80, then searches for stocks in the TAZ. He calls this 'Market Timing'. From what I can read he doesn't use Williams %R on individual stocks.
Can someone point me in the right direction if I have this wrong?
Anyone trading TAZ on the ASX or backtesting?
http://swing-trade-stocks.activeboard.com/index.spark?forumID=72159&p=3&topicID= 8013597
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gdd3
Member
Username: gdd3
Post Number: 167
Registered: 09-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, August 09, 2007 - 08:13 pm: |
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Hi Albi...Thanks for the reference link; I think those interested in the T.A.Z.trading method should constantly refer to Craig's "www.swing-trade-stocks.com" site for an abundance of info.
Yes, I also understand Craig first looks at the overall market(S&P 500) direction(either up or down....basis 10period M.A. crossover of 30period M.A. to determine if he is a buyer or seller) then looks for stocks in the T.A.Z.set-up area for potential entries.
I also understand he puts "reasonable" weighting on Larry Connor's "Volatility Index"(VIX) indicator to determine the likelihood(claiming 70% likelihood) of the next direction within the next 5 days.
Unfortunately, we I.C.ors, have not got these tools in place YET nor can we do the appropriate scans that Craig refers to and has at his disposal.
Cheers
Dolphin
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gdd3
Member
Username: gdd3
Post Number: 171
Registered: 09-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, August 14, 2007 - 01:15 pm: |
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