MOS alert ..... astrostuff .....
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     yogiinoz
Member
Username: yogiinoz
Post Number: 211
Registered: 10-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, July 28, 2003 - 11:06 pm: | 
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Date: Mon Jul 28, 2003 6:41 pm
Subject: MOS ... time to get on board ??? ... astrostuff
Hi folks,
Some time ago, we saw some interesting
astrostuff posted on Mosaic ... MOS.
Today, Mars is on station to go retrograde
and it looks like it has marked the breakout
for this stock.
Sometimes, two stations will have a
similar price range as the planet (apparently)
reverses direction ... another example of
this is the 2001 Mars stations in May and
July, where the price range was between
16 and 17.5 cents.
If we follow the last cycle, MOS will
stay in a flat mode, until the next Mars
direct station, this time on 260903 ...
then a strong rally to about 151003 ???
Last time this cycle was evident, MOS
rallied from 16 to 31 cents.
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So, note the price range for tomorrow,
290703 ... again it could well be in
the 16-17.5, surprise, surprise .....
Then, we can also compare it to the
price range on 260903 ... could be an
interesting exercise.
Key days in coming weeks for MOS may be:
August 6, 13, 27-28
September 8, 15-16, 26
October 15, 2003
Hope this helps some.
yogi
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rayj
Member
Username: rayj
Post Number: 37
Registered: 01-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, July 29, 2003 - 05:41 am: |
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Yogi
Sounds reasonable. Bit of a run up now to test the dec 02 highs but will need a bit more time to break through. Mos has been popping up on other members searches since june. Good to know the stars are with us. (I have some Mos)
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mosaic1996
Member
Username: mosaic1996
Post Number: 104
Registered: 01-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, July 29, 2003 - 09:01 am: |
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Yogi's prediction could come very well come to pass.
MOS plan to drill 3 or more low risk wells around this period. If these wells are successful, the $0.31 price target could easily be reached and breached, but only if the wells are successful.
Whilst I believe that the wells are low risk, they could still be dusters, which would have a very negative effect on the share price. So be careful when being hopeful.
Are the planets and ducks aligned? I certainly hope so as I own MOS.
Mosaic (MOS)
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steve_m
Member
Username: steve_m
Post Number: 70
Registered: 02-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, July 29, 2003 - 08:07 pm: |
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As I recall Nicola posted early July on MOS then ranging .125/.135 saying she was getting buy signals when the thing looked as flat as a tack. If you are there Nicola what did you use that gave you those signals. Cheers Steve.
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nicola
Member
Username: nicola
Post Number: 16
Registered: 06-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, July 30, 2003 - 12:56 pm: |
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I used Profitunity (Metastock).
Also the interplay between price and daily volume had subtly changed.
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yogiinoz
Member
Username: yogiinoz
Post Number: 212
Registered: 10-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, August 05, 2003 - 01:00 am: |
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MOS ... ticking up slowly ...
happy trading
yogi
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nicola
Member
Username: nicola
Post Number: 23
Registered: 06-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, August 05, 2003 - 10:34 pm: |
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I know the charts have said 'buy' Mosaic for a while, but it's a bit early for the price to be rising on a fundamental basis don't you think? After all Mosaic's drilling programme doesn't start till September.
Does anyone have a view on this?
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vesta
Member
Username: vesta
Post Number: 20
Registered: 05-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, August 06, 2003 - 02:21 am: |
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Hi Nicola
I think the saying goes "Buy on rumour and sell on fact". What your seeing may be an example of this
Vesta
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mosaic1996
Member
Username: mosaic1996
Post Number: 119
Registered: 01-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, August 06, 2003 - 11:40 am: |
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Hi Nicola,
The MOS drilling program of up to 3 well is due to start around October(?), so it probably a little early for this to be the prime reason for the recent advance. Yogi-in-Oz may have some clout as well - he posts at a lot of sites and has a fairly good reputation I would imagine that this would give minor support/demand (although every bit counts).
Looking at the broader picture, many of the small to mid-cap oilers are on a bit of a tear at the moment mainly because they had been over done on the downside recently. They were out of favour due to several factors including Iraq war (and the expected impact on the price of oil), exploration disappointment (Mauritania, Cliff Head, etc.) and further compounded by tax loss selling.
I would assume that much of MOS's recent advance is due to this industry wide rerating which IMO is due to price of oil staying high, exploration success (e.g., AYO, COE, BPT, TAP etc.). Another very important factor is that the drilling activity in the 2nd half of of 2003 is much greater than the drilling activity in the first half.
Now the question becomes 'will MOS be rerated further as the drilling program gets closer'? All things being equal, I believe that MOS will continue to be rerated as we get closer to the commencement of the drilling program. Yes there is further upside from here. My beginner take on the MOS chart is that there is no signal to get out at the moment.
Fundamentals/events that may effect the price of MOS include the general perception of small to mid-cap oilers as a good place to invest; but more importantly the success/failure of exploration programs of other companies that happen before MOS's program (e.g., PPP, AYO, COE, TAP, ROC, HDR, AWE etc.). If some/most of these wells are successful, there will be a lot of gains looking for the next BIG oiler win. Failure in these programs will have a negative effect.
Finally I would say that on publicly available information MOS is fundamentally undervalued. They are now cash flow positive and profitable. The have very prospective acreage in the Surat, and if the Methanol plant goes ahead in PNG (a long shot in my opinion) it is worth big bucks to MOS and CUE. Now all of the doesn't mean that the price will go up, but IMO there is no blue sky in the MOS price. This is a positive situation in that small explorers (like MOS) can be priced at fundamental value plus lots of blue sky based on future exploration success. These sorts of situations can result in very good gains if the drill bit is successful.
It is probably obvious, but I own MOS.
Cheers,
Mosaic
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yogiinoz
Member
Username: yogiinoz
Post Number: 218
Registered: 10-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, August 11, 2003 - 10:03 pm: |
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Hi folks,
Next key day for MOS coming up on
13082003 ... some news maybe ???
Still holding in a tight range, too.
happy trading
yogi
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nicola
Member
Username: nicola
Post Number: 31
Registered: 06-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, August 13, 2003 - 11:01 am: |
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Mosaic, in your last posting you wrote that Mosaic's Methanol plant is a long shot. What makes you think this?
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mosaic1996
Member
Username: mosaic1996
Post Number: 136
Registered: 01-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, August 13, 2003 - 11:26 am: |
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Nicola,
I am not sure but I would not be surprised if the Japanese(?) are looking at several options for the development of an ethanol plant.
It then comes down to where is the best deal for them. PNG has a lot of country risk, but really need the money, so they may offer the consortia a good deal.
If the IOC refinery in PNG works out well, this may make it more likely to happen.
MOS price unlikely to get a boost until it becomes a bit more likely that they will proceed. End of year may give some first indication if they will proceed further along the path. Bottom line is that there is a long way to go before a serious commitment is made one way or the other. Or to put it another way, for the front runner emerges.
Cheers,
Mosaic
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yogiinoz
Member
Username: yogiinoz
Post Number: 223
Registered: 10-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, August 20, 2003 - 01:32 pm: |
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MOS ..... still holding up quite well.
happy trading
yogi
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jjohno
Member
Username: jjohno
Post Number: 1
Registered: 07-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, August 25, 2003 - 07:09 pm: |
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