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     dug
Member
Username: dug
Post Number: 2847
Registered: 07-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, January 31, 2008 - 11:27 am: |  
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Here's one for Hilarius.Out of the Swamp with Increased Earnings/Upgrade.Isn't that something your "FA gang" is looking into Hilarius?
Will the Gap be a Continuation never to be filled?[elizabeth?]
Didn't this have some really seedy reputation for inside trading whatever in the Past?
Anyhow,seems to have turned/open Higher than it's currently trading at.That'd be d'Day Boys from 7/10ish?
Even 'til Jaded.
Dig for the sake of it.
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dug
Member
Username: dug
Post Number: 2848
Registered: 07-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, January 31, 2008 - 03:38 pm: |
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Well I had to go out this arvo so I bought some for 13.5.
It closed at that but I could of got some cheaper.The price you pay for leaving the screen,hey?At least I didn't buy the Open!!
Anyhow I can't put a chart up because of the IC time delay but it's one of them Evening Stars All over a Gap but quite a small gap now.
ZYL vwapped at 13.5 ish.It gapped on Significant Business Improvement News.ZYL recently has been getting it's act together Cash Flow wise so I reckon though the Evening Star has appeared it's still got some GO in it and today's Volume was NOT a Blow Off.
Still it's Friday tomorrow so will just have to give it a go.
Happy Trading.
Even 'til Jaded.
Dig for the sake of it.
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elisabeth
Member
Username: elisabeth
Post Number: 424
Registered: 09-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, February 02, 2008 - 06:57 am: |
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Dug, I too like your time stops – something I haven’t used, but should – though I would be inclined to give it a little more than 2 days. Stops have been my major challenge – obeying them that is. I like Chris Shea’s approach that the money being stopped out is a business cost. It’s not a bad trade, it’s your rent for the right to trade the market.
ZYL
Daily:
The yellow lines show where the gap is on the daily – definitely potential to go and close that one. There is RSI divergence – always a warning signal. (Apologies, the colours don't reproduce too well here.)
I know you sold, Dug - I’m putting this one on my watchlist for a potential buy once retraced. Basing this on the weekly:
Great volume on the upswing.
The spikes signal consolidation at the very least – the danger is that ZYL will produce a many month consolidation/retrace as before, but if it stops above the 10c support level, I’ll be watching closely for a sign of continuation - this could develop into a nice cup & handle formation.
The potential interim target would be around the 20c mark, but there’s a 40c H back in Oct ’03 which, if you put up a monthly chart, looks very achievable.
No RSI divergence on the weekly but it is high – nearly 85 – is that overbought or strength.....?
As always, so much depends on the market and news.
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dug
Member
Username: dug
Post Number: 2852
Registered: 07-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, February 02, 2008 - 10:21 am: |
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I'd use more than 2 days myself for Time stops but with ZYL I had to leave the Screen and didn't like how it shaped out on the Friday morning Trade.
I don't agree with buying it on a retrace to 10 centsish.I find the 10/12 range as Stagnant.
Attracts .5 cent ticks merchants of $20,000 getting $1000 a day.
Also elizabeth there seems to be a "problem" with this 2nd biggest in the World Taiwanese "spy camera" mob ZYL is distributing.Read the Taiwan Company is only Market Capped at around $20 million too!!
Wish HC was still around so he could read the Taiwan Stock Exchange Site!!
Anyhow ZYL has/had a Dubious History.There's a concern that it'll have to do a Placement.
Friday's action seems to indicate the Buyers are wary.No jump up other than the Open.
Note the Volume awhile back 7/9.5 was twice at least of Thursdays.Market Depth was pretty thin Friday on the Bid.A couple of 500k# hits would have eliminated levels of bids.
So I'm watching it now,too elizabeth but I won't be encouraged to BUY the Gap rather if I'm on screen watch set-up for a few days I might buy a Rise.
I'll get back to you if I confirm the Taiwan Company as "dodgy" too.
regards.
Even 'til Jaded.
Dig for the sake of it.
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dug
Member
Username: dug
Post Number: 2854
Registered: 07-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, February 02, 2008 - 11:08 am: |
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So it goes,elizabeth.
ZYL cash burns at $600k/Qtr.It has $600k in the Bank as of 31/12.
It had to issue a Notice of Change yesterday[AFTER Close] to confirm this "mistake" in the previous announcement.
The Taiwan Company has a value of Half a Billion New Taiwan Dollar$[NTD] but BUT the Oz conversion rate is 29 NTD to 1 ONE Ozzie$ buck ie Taiwan Co is IS only $18mil Market Capped in Real Money.
Could be that the Taiwan don't issue all their shares meaning it's Majority PRIVATE Owned or some such different to us Mechanism but it's all quite "smelly" ie Watch OUT if not just AVOID.
cheers.
Even 'til Jaded.
Dig for the sake of it.
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elisabeth
Member
Username: elisabeth
Post Number: 425
Registered: 09-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, February 03, 2008 - 06:08 am: |
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Dug, thank you, you’re a great asset to IC in the way you time and time again present a different perspective on a company. Was going to do some research on this one today – no more – it’s off the main watchlist and into the “see what happens” file.
Have a good week!
Elisabeth
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dug
Member
Username: dug
Post Number: 2855
Registered: 07-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, February 03, 2008 - 04:54 pm: |
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oh elizabeth,
you'll have to get up even earlier in the morning if ya're going to do d'flatter on me 
ZYL is a Trier.It's had a Bad Reputation in the past but is now under New Management.
Over at Warm Pig they're all so impressed they call the MD by his first name Nick and have FAITH that he'll look after them.
Elizabeth,it's that danged BRR radio gig that sways d'pilgrims.It just doesn't seem to be Understood that if blessed Nick sounded like a Used Car Salesman[or me!!]he wouldn't be on the Radio.
Did you read that Friday 4pm announcement,liz?
Ambiguity!?!?! It was a Blatant Misrepresentation in the Headline by "Good Guy" Nick.
There has to be a Placement Real SOON to fund Cash Flow.
At what price is the Only Question.
IF ZYL has not got Suitable,Superior Sophisticated Investors "on d'Job"/Believing in this New Management Vision?well what ya reckon?
7/9 cents?
This Taiwan Mob,World's Second [maybe third] Biggest Manufacturer of Spy Cameras is really quite "dodgy" like it's Qtr Sales to the World aren't Earth Shattering.
One wonders how far behind the World Leader they actually are.
but d'Warm Pigs go into projections and believe this Nick Jive that there's a $11 mil Big Ones from this "Deal".
After Friday arvo's announce I'm not sure if d'Nick ain't quoting Taiwanese Buck$$![29/2/$1]
Now ZYL MAY be under new Dynamic Management.
ZYL MAY be getting BIG BOY Contracts.
but is it really going to make ANY Money?
or is it just PUFF?
Even 'til Jaded.
Dig for the sake of it.
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dug
Member
Username: dug
Post Number: 2858
Registered: 07-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, February 06, 2008 - 12:41 pm: |
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I'm going to Break a Rule here.Going to do FA in Short Term and Dang the Topic Headline.
Now under TA guidelines ZYL has stuck it's Head UP.
And the Reasons it seems that it has done that is
Just like ya read in d'Textbooks
A Company with New Management in a Up and Coming Sector
ie Surveillance Cameras.
Naturally it's got bleeding new management,
the last Manager Direct. DIED!!
So the new bloke came in with Ambitions.Geezus ya can't get more Fundamental than That!
How do ya figure the Last One was going if he knew he was Dying!!
There's some sub-plot that some other IT company tried to buy ZYL back awhile a Go
BUT that'd be Spivs following the 3D's d'Death,Divorce,Distress
Prickdisciples of doing d'Business.
ZYL is not a TakeOver Target.It's Flat Out Getting some Cash Flow together BUT
BUT BUT it MAY just achieve Cash Flow Positive sorta soon.
We need to see what exactly it's Making on the variously recently announced Contracts before we get a real gist of ZYL FA-wise.
ZYL has about 150mil shares on Issue but they're not too Tightly Held in Subsa-tantial Holders Hands.
Directors don't hold many either.
A good/bad/indifferent point in the scheme of dings.
ZYL is ringing. In more ways than One.
So my position is Gunner Buy at ? cents/sense.
Later.
Even 'til Jaded.
Dig for the sake of it.
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elisabeth
Member
Username: elisabeth
Post Number: 426
Registered: 09-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, February 09, 2008 - 10:52 am: |
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Good morning Dug,
The powerful island reversal formation is even stronger when the island is made up of several bars as has happened in ZYL. This gap is not likely to fill in the short term.
Lots of top shadows on those candles, plus the visible depth has lots of sellers at and above the 10c mark.
If price breaks below 0.095, this stock may well be heading for its 200 MA as it did after the previous bout of volatility in March last year – see small inset daily line chart.
Longer term support seems to be around the 0.070 to 0.075 area (where it might meet up with MA200), though it could consolidate around there for a long time as before.
Just my TA view.... but this one is off my radar for now.
Elisabeth
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dug
Member
Username: dug
Post Number: 2870
Registered: 07-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, February 09, 2008 - 01:28 pm: |
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Hullo elizabeth,
Best Island reversal I've seen is in CFU awhile back.It virtually formed an Atoll in a U shape above the Gap that lasted for weeks.yes weeks not days.I think it's Chart is in Green Buck$ thread short term.
but yes ZYL is down in the boon docks.A lot of the sub 10 buying was IMO scalpers for the .5 10/12 tick.That's why the Depth ASK 10.5/11 is investated with those 100/200k offers.
I'm thinking there is going to be a placement 7centish to raise at least a Half Mil.I also figure that if ZYL goes back to 9/9.2 next week that the scalpers will Dump and the price will be pressured Down even more.
My "plan" is to try and get some info on ZYL's actual Cash Flow THIS Qtr[Jan-March]so the Placement possibility can be Confirmed.Placements are nearly always at a Discount to say a 5/10 day VWAP.
It then comes down to the Calibre of Sophisticated Investors that ZYL has/can Rope In.[as to whether price retraces to placement one]
There's a real "Movement" to use reaction to Placements as an "indicator" of Fair Dinkum Management but I'll waffle about that up in my Systems New Mechanisms Thread.[if I haven't already!]
You do any FA,at least Announcement research,elizabeth?Aren't you the Lady who does the TA for her husband's FA?or something like that?
Anyway I'm looking to buy at around 7/8 so I've got some kick for a 10cent retrace or I'll buy at 12 on Decent News getting it there [12 cents] in the Morning Session on Volume.That's if I'm on the screen that is.
There's a lot of interest in ZYL but from what I've read elsewhere it's mostly "warm pigs" going on heat about the Security Business rather than this particular company and it's actual business 'sense'/possibilities to prosper.
cheers.
Even 'til Jaded.
Dig for the sake of it.
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dug
Member
Username: dug
Post Number: 2871
Registered: 07-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, February 09, 2008 - 01:46 pm: |
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Forgot d'chart.
Fibo in there just for you,liz.
The big candle 6.6/11.5 was on an announcement that NEC Australia was using ZYL software in a few contracts.Unfortunately this was TENDERing Contracts in the main so when does the Money Flow?
The 15cent jump the other day was on this Taiwan Company getting ZYL to distribute for them in Australia.
I wonder if there's some conflict of interest in Computer Hardware Companies happening [Nec v Taiwan Vivotec?]
It's all a bit confusing for a Computer Luddite to follow but there are some "interesting" expenses in ZYL that have to be sorted out.
later.
Even 'til Jaded.
Dig for the sake of it.
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elisabeth
Member
Username: elisabeth
Post Number: 427
Registered: 09-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, February 09, 2008 - 04:13 pm: |
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Dug, no, not me - no hubby involvement beyond the macro stuff - he's not interested in trading, but has a few $$ locked away in LT investment which I can't persuade him to trade.
F/A - yes, some, depending on the stock - sometimes it's purely a quick pattern play. Announcements definitely - historical also (based on volume spikes), plus I like to know the major shareholders.
I look forward to your "waffle" on placements - I hate that kind of announcement when I've just bought - puts a whole new perspective on the trade which changes the plan so I should simply exit - sometimes a good move, sometimes not.
Like the fibo - I've put it on the weekly below, taking in the whole move up - there's room for more fall from both perspectives. Or could it hold at current price - 62% fib on your chart, 50% on mine - both strong levels.
I see TMF is looking pretty negative.
Ah well, time will tell!
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dug
Member
Username: dug
Post Number: 2905
Registered: 07-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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