BHP-Tinto

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captain_chaza

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Sunday, February 10, 2008 - 06:29 pm:

Is it such a bad idea for BHP to only have 50% of RIO

Crikey !
I wouldn't mind a share in the 50% profits of RIO and a share in 100% of the profits of BHP

It seems to me it looks like I am going to have to put on my thinking cap one of these days

Salute and Gods'speed

"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.

"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate."
Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893

"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897

adzman

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Tuesday, February 19, 2008 - 05:52 pm:

BHP started trading out of its channel early January. I believe it is at a critical point, it needs to get back above $40 and back into the channel else back to $32 and possibly $28 (bottom of the new trading channel)

TMF now positive with price above 200MA which is still rising. Volume has been just short of l/term average.

Todays candle suggests a "shooting star" which indicates a reversal. Other indicators look ok.

Comments please - I hold

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tryhay

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Tuesday, February 19, 2008 - 07:54 pm:

FWIW I'm short ~ I'm finding it hard to swallow the "things are rosie" blurb. "XAO snapped back on the back of banks & blurp,,, ANZ recovered some of the losses of yesterday [up 14c] sheeash....."

Daily chart: Perhaps things will change as we look ? A bit more NNe could change my mind though (not holding my breath)

bhp

Happy trading DYOR

sway

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Tuesday, February 19, 2008 - 11:13 pm:

Adzman

With the FTSE strong tonight and DJ looking to go higher as well, we should see more rise in our market tomorrow. And since BHP is running well ahead of the general market, I would expect it to easily move further above the 200d EMA.

Sway
PS I'm holding BHP in both my trading account and my SMSF.

captain_chaza

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Friday, February 22, 2008 - 02:20 pm:

Ahoy Brave and Loyal Crew

Hold on Tight!

Salute and Gods' speed

captain_chaza

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Saturday, February 23, 2008 - 04:48 pm:

Ahoy Brave and Loyal crew

BHP up 2.70% in NY overnight
RIO up 1.06%
Read into these figures what you like
Whether the sails are half full or half empty

but be aware
BHP is going Ex-Dividend on Monday

With regard to the "Iron Ore" negotiations in the past It has always been a Gentleman's agreement that the first negotiations set the price for the all for the year

BHP has always sought for the 6% extra because of cheaper Transport costs to Asia but RIO was the one who always upset the apple-cart

Now that the RIO board of directors have their own Jobs on the line they have gone with the old BHP idea to show some upmanship

Whether BHP-Tinto will now split the difference at say 3% is still to be negotiated

Crikey! If we can live with an OIL cartel like OPEC I can't see why we can't bring our Iron Ore cartel out of the cupboard in these modern times

The problem now as I see it on Monday is "The Beginning of The End" of the BEAR Market

Will these Greedy Landlubbers Sell their BHP-Tinto to jump back into the Banks or are they cashed up enough without having to sell one of the best Booming Commodity markets I have ever seen

The fact is that most Fund Managers who have missed this Commodity Boom will surely be asked to walk the plank

Crikey! How can they ever catch up to those with only the average level of seamanship?

The answer is "Never"
Unless we now start making mistakes!!!

It'll be nice to do some "Plain Sailing" for a change,Hey?

Salute and Gods' speed

PS: Ahoy Sea-Cadet Nicola
I suggest you get all your excuses ready
"Only a Mother Would believe"

(Message edited by Captain_Chaza on February 23, 2008)

rockon

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Saturday, February 23, 2008 - 08:11 pm:

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23260389-643,00.html

tryhay

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Monday, February 25, 2008 - 05:16 pm:

Be nice to top up, but am expecting a gap down tomorrow...

This was the announcement...
"HEAVY JANUARY AND FEBRUARY RAINFALL CAUSES PRODUCTION IMPACT AT QUEENSLAND COAL OPERATIONS
BHP Billiton has today provided a preliminary estimate of the production impact of the recent heavy rainfall experienced across Queensland's Bowen Basin (Australia).
While these assessments are continuing, it is currently estimated that the two significant rainfall events, on January 18 - 20 and February 9 - 14, will impact FY08 production from the BHP Billiton Mitsubishi Alliance (BMA) owned mines by between 6.5 and 7.5 million tonnes. In addition, the FY08 production impact from the BHP Billiton Mitsui (BMC) owned mines is estimated to be between 0.5 and 1.0 million tonnes. These assessments include any rollover into FY09.
The BHP Billiton share of this production impact is between 3.7 and 4.6 million tonnes after taking into account relevant ownership. BHP Billiton has insurance cover for property damage and business interruption losses, and potential claims are currently being assessed.
BMA CEO John Smith said:
* "These are initial assessments of the impacts on production due to the inability to safely operate the mines and to maintain access for our people and supplies following the rains.
* We anticipate we will be better informed on the actual extent of the impact as the recovery process proceeds and mines are brought back to full operational capacity. We will provide an update on the impacts if they are materially different from our preliminary assessments once the situation has been fully assessed.
* Our focus remains on ensuring the safety of all employees and contractors at our operations and on swift recovery of operations, including dewatering of the pits. We are working with the EPA to meet their conditions and minimise downstream impacts.
* We are also continuing to work with our customers to minimise disruption to their businesses" he said.

Daily chart: Be interesting to see the London & US trading tonight to be sure...

bhp

Happy trading DYOR

tryhay

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Tuesday, March 11, 2008 - 06:15 am:

For those up the back staring out of the window, the overnight trading in NY seems to indicate the current direction of BHP

Daily chart: Increased volume, lower breakaway gap/s, multiple failure of support/resistance...

bhp

Happy trading DYOR

tryhay

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Tuesday, March 11, 2008 - 06:30 pm:

and the australian share mirrors the NY model ~ just did not have the momentum to swing higher....

adzman wrote on Tuesday, February 19, 2008 - 06:52 pm:
BHP started trading out of its channel early January. I believe it is at a critical point, it needs to get back above $40 and back into the channel else back to $32 and possibly $28 (bottom of the new trading channel)

should have topped up but XJO shorts will have to do...

Happy trading DYOR

coyotte

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Thursday, March 13, 2008 - 08:51 pm:

BHP :

Probably old hat by now -- but this looks like a well and truly failed H&S to the UP :

The Black and dominate H&S is targeting the Mid to Low $20s area .

The Secondary Red H&S has failed and was around $50 target -- the H&S trend line is down sloping -- should have been at least level or better up sloping .

as i see it this is a clear cut warning for Longs in the Miners -- hence have closed Long Hedges in the Mining Sector and just running BHP & RIO SHORT .

All we need now is Swing Low followed by a Swing High that fails to take out the red RS -- you could put one your rentals on a Short then .
.

The "Sea of Uncertainty" is defeated by the nimble vessel "Probability", not the unwieldy vessel "Prediction".

tryhay

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Friday, March 14, 2008 - 06:34 am:

Hi coyotte,

Yes, a good thing about the share market is that share price does not often move from point "A" to "B" without some deviation (bit like a game of golf): I don't think BHP is rocketing to sub $31 immediately, however it just may head a lot lower than $31 over time (reference the lower lows and lower highs since october last year, the fact that we are in bear market, and if the bit messy chart pattern/s play out). What a paradigm shift our markets have had in just 3 months!

coyotte do you still use ATM model for computer traded shares? quote from another september thread below..

coyotte wrote on Tuesday, September 11, 2007 - 10:33 pm:
AMT Model

Frank Dilernia's -- Analytical Market Trading.

Dynamic "Time" Trend Lines -- can be made as simple or as complicated as you wish --- can be used with a spreadsheet (no charts) or up to " Fibonacci Trader " Software .

Basically the method works around a fixed price (Balance Point) for the trading period in question and you trade to this price --- for this week going by the model LGL is in a strong uptrend (has been by the model for quite a while)--- but the trading method calls for SHORT if above 3.40 back to 3.25 (BP) --- you just trade either side of the BP for the period in question -- been using it for around 8mths now and price will more than often return to the BP during the period being traded (75% of around 500 trades) and close (66%) within +/-5% --- these are my results holding from intra-day to 1 week, with multiple entries/exits

Weekly chart: BHP definately not heading in the right direction ATM

bhpppppppp

I'd like to top up my shorts but am ~75% cash & ~25% short & toy long...

Happy trading DYOR

coyotte

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Friday, March 14, 2008 - 09:17 am:

Tryhay :

Ref AMT model

used this in simpler it's form for just over 12 months .

Think i stated elsewhere that whilst the method has merit , Frank as a author is bloody awful -- he put out a updated version of his book early 2008 and it just made it worse .
Bought this up on the Trade's Lab Forum and it seems I am not alone in that view .

He has a Blog Site now " the trader trading " -- where he posts daily for Indexs and Stocks , but have not been there for a couple of months when he started to suggest the Banking Sector as LONG ( based on the yearly Balance Points), mainly ANZ & Westpak -- results speak for themselves .

actually all it is, is a overly complicated version of the old Wheat Futures Trader's method

The "Sea of Uncertainty" is defeated by the nimble vessel "Probability", not the unwieldy vessel "Prediction".

tryhay

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Friday, March 14, 2008 - 09:43 am:

Yes - was wondering if it was a fad or actually had merit.

Funny you mention that I have Marcus Oldham's "Futures trading for farmers" course notes and slides! and it sounded somewhat familiar...

Seems there is no "holy Grail', but if one keeps on one's toes then the market can not beat you ~ but it sure takes sweat and work when required.

Doesn't suit me to short RIO, and happy with the current setup ~ am looking for a base soon (week/s) but not sure yet how high the bounce is likely to be.....

Wishing you the best

Happy trading DYOR

coyotte

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Friday, March 14, 2008 - 10:27 am:

RIO:

have to agree with you tryhay , RIO could be a bit dodgy as a Short , am trading it under McLaren's Rules :

1: breached the Low before High (orange line )
2: a low above the red line is the STOP
3: if the current Low was a False Break , it should have been followed by a High Vol Buying Bar -- which it was not .

what initially interested me in it was the Flag failure down to the 50% level -- expecting at the best (long) that the 61.8% ( around $131) will be resistance .

cheers
.

(Message edited by coyotte on March 14, 2008)

The "Sea of Uncertainty" is defeated by the nimble vessel "Probability", not the unwieldy vessel "Prediction".

coyotte

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Saturday, March 15, 2008 - 10:55 pm:

Something not adding up here :

IF -- BHP is going down , I have it at around $22.66 and

IF -- RIO is being valued on the 3.4 offer ( 3.5 reported for the Alum upgrade valuation ) then even at 3.5 that puts RIO at around $ 79.30

interesting to see how this plays out

cheers

The "Sea of Uncertainty" is defeated by the nimble vessel "Probability", not the unwieldy vessel "Prediction".

tryhay

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Sunday, March 16, 2008 - 06:26 am:

It is a really variable market and my guess is that BHP will spike lower before the market/s rally for some time...

$38.29 now looks like resistance & looking for a test of $34.56 ~ with a possible spike lower (say to $32.45 or perhaps $31.00).

Daily chart: Ideally will form a capitulation double bottom bounce here - see what the market (and hedge funds) have in mind hmmmmmmm ...

bhppp

If one is to trade this you got to believe this

Happy trading DYOR

coyotte

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Tuesday, March 18, 2008 - 08:00 am:

tryhay

the bit about the double bottom bounce :

From Bill McLaren set-ups :

1: in a UP trending stock a DB is a LONG set-up

2: in a DN trending stock "DBs rarely end a down move -- a False Break is needed for that" -- the same with a UP trending stock and a DT.

so from a McLaren perspective , first the present trend must be determined .

if this is a DN trend, he is not saying there will not be a bounce off the DB, but simply that the bounce will be a counter trend move and not a trend change.

think I've got that right

cheers

The "Sea of Uncertainty" is defeated by the nimble vessel "Probability", not the unwieldy vessel "Prediction".

captain_chaza

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Wednesday, March 19, 2008 - 05:08 pm:

Ahoy Brave and Loyal crew

Cancel the signwriter commissioned to sign-write the Good ship "BHP-Tinto"

I hear over the Mossad wires that RIO is talking to the Anglo American

If true, this really puts a spanner in the works for BHP-Tinto but the ramifications could be very exciting for our Blue & Green sheets

Where to now for BHP ?

Salute and Gods' speed

tryhay

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Thursday, March 20, 2008 - 06:51 am:

Any volunteers to be long over easter?

Daily chart: heading in the wrong direction here, support seems to be holding but I note certainly not oversold yet....

bhp

wonder if $53 will be gone by tuesday?

Trust everyone has a happy easter.

Happy trading DYOR

coyotte

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Thursday, March 20, 2008 - 07:10 am:

where is the data from tryhay ?

ic has your $63.82 @ $64.33

this mornings NY close $63.99

off to check out StockCharts .

if the Capt's info right, what will we end up with on our bourse -- explorers only ?

(Message edited by coyotte on March 20, 2008)

(Message edited by coyotte on March 20, 2008)

The "Sea of Uncertainty" is defeated by the nimble vessel "Probability", not the unwieldy vessel "Prediction".

coyotte

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Thursday, March 20, 2008 - 07:35 am:

IC & StockCharts agree

The "Sea of Uncertainty" is defeated by the nimble vessel "Probability", not the unwieldy vessel "Prediction".

tryhay

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Thursday, March 20, 2008 - 07:38 am:

I don't use any sufisticated charting package (other than the IC package) and if extra lines are required then MS paint is sufficient.

I guess that is why Colin does not like us using other charting patterns on this site: I don't think it fair to make an issue out of discrepancies between prices displayed in various charting packages ~ sufficient to say that a small % error is acceptable given the complexity of task given.

If you select sunset colour scheme at SC then the chart should look familiar coyotte.

In this world of globalisation coyotte I think our big companies will increasingly become multi national and by necessity we will need to trade on multiple exchanges: IMO selected shorts in the US still have some way to go ... Unfortunately we look destined to remain a primary producer (these days we ride on the back of the drag line bulk contributing to the worlds CO2 load, not to mention SO,NOX etc rather than the back of the sheep we exported our best marinos to china etc) ~ however china looks to want an increasing slice of the local mining action too - to avoid the 'transport tax' on our inferia Iron Ore shipments. (Perhaps that sentiment is unpatriotic - but it is the way I see it)

Time to get a new pair of shorts (topped up yesterday but missed the stylish ones - and as usual didnt get enough)

(Message edited by tryhay on March 20, 2008)

Happy trading DYOR

coyotte

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Thursday, March 20, 2008 - 07:56 am:

the reason i queried the price tryhay, is under McLaren that group of 3 lows 11/2 is a VITAL level .

a swing DN followed by a swing UP that fails to take out that level is a McLaren Set-Up.

no malice was meant

apologizes if you feel that way

cheers

The "Sea of Uncertainty" is defeated by the nimble vessel "Probability", not the unwieldy vessel "Prediction".

tryhay

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Thursday, March 20, 2008 - 08:16 am:

NP coyotte ~ and I see your point.

Your point seems to be if that support fails then McLaren set up?

He is an interesting man ~ have seen him present to ATAA meetings ~ what he doesnt know about share trading probably aint worth knowing & even he is wrong on occaision

You still short coyotte ?

I got to go to salt mines but back before close if possible

Happy trading DYOR

coyotte

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Thursday, March 20, 2008 - 08:27 am:

2/3rds a full position SHORT BHP
1/3 rd a full position SHORT RIO

watching RIO like a hawk though -- may close RIO today and let BHP run over the WE -- can always pick RIO up again .

cheers

The "Sea of Uncertainty" is defeated by the nimble vessel "Probability", not the unwieldy vessel "Prediction".

ohkoolnutz

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Thursday, March 20, 2008 - 04:30 pm:

tryhay:

"...I don't think it fair to make an issue out of discrepancies between prices displayed in various charting packages ~ sufficient to say that a small % error is acceptable given the complexity of task given."

When it comes to data there is zero tolerance. What good is TA if the data is garbage? As I have stated before it is not rocket science to get this right. It takes a person who knows what they are doing and the forced full disclosure of all trades to a central monitoring body. Three things that are currently not in place.

A trade has either occurred or not occurred. The price went up or down. It's a zero or one to a computer. There is no room for faults except when idiots run the show at the exchanges, the brokers and the data companies.

---
ohk

Lies, Damn Lies and Technical Analysis

paddy

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Friday, March 21, 2008 - 03:12 am:

BHP Billiton bites the Eskom bullet

The Eskom power crisis is going to cost BHP Billiton some $343m (about R2,7bn) in lost annual revenues because of forced production cuts at its three aluminium smelters in Richards Bay and Maputo.

http://www.miningmx.com/mining_fin/364072.htm

tryhay

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Sunday, June 01, 2008 - 09:51 am:

Has not been much discussion recently ~ particularly since this post in the weekly comp <http://forum.incrediblecharts.com/userscripts/forums/show.plx?tpc=8&post=135947>.

$5 drop in 2 weeks ~ wonder if the 50 day MA will provide a bounce (NOT likely IMO)? I am expecting ~$41 to be approached shortly before our market decides to bounce back.

Daily chart: Not many indicators looking flash (though most approaching O'sold condition ) - Price down & volume up isn't a good sign & chart don't display classic capitulation signs just yet.

bhp

ITM but don't plan on toping up shorts ATM

BTW some financials (Banks particularly) don't look flash lately either ...

(Message edited by tryhay on June 01, 2008)

Happy trading DYOR

paddy

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Monday, June 02, 2008 - 03:03 am:

tryhay : BHP [ NYSE] Doji Morning Star on Friday with bullish stochastic suggests a possibility of a Up day on Monday .Close would have to be greater than $86.46 for confirmation of reversal signal.

Regards,

Paddy

strataminor

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Monday, June 02, 2008 - 08:48 am:

Paddy, do you mean a close above $46.46?

I now stop thinking, and enjoy trading!! As a man thinks so is he (Jesus Christ).

paddy

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Monday, June 02, 2008 - 09:09 am:

strataminor : I looked at BHP on the NYSE . There a Close above US $86.86 would confirm the reversal indicated by the candlestick .

The ASX chart is different . I could see a reversal with a bounce off the Lower Bollinger Band at approximately Aussie $43. If not $43 then perhaps as low as $41 .

Regards,

Paddy

strataminor

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Monday, June 02, 2008 - 09:39 am:

Sorry Paddy, my fault! I agree though the chart (along with the materials sector) shows a retest of supports coming up. $41 may of interest if it consolidates and starts to rise from there. But I am more so a day and swing trader though
Cheers

I now stop thinking, and enjoy trading!! As a man thinks so is he (Jesus Christ).

paddy

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Monday, June 02, 2008 - 11:01 am:

strataminor : No problem . Difficult at times to keep track of multiple listed stocks . Very nice Gap Up this AM [ ASX ]. Now all it needs to do is keep rising and Close on the High with increased volume. would be a very bullish candlestick. Bodes well for BHP opening on NYSE.

Regards,

Paddy

paddy

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Tuesday, June 03, 2008 - 08:35 am:

BHP [ NYSE] Gapped Up but on lower volume . Did not reach price level to confirm reversal as suggested by candlestick . Stock still did good considering that the Dow was tanking .

Paddy

tryhay

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Tuesday, June 17, 2008 - 01:50 pm:

BHP looks to be retesting the 50 D_MA before going down again: looks like a short squeeze rally IMO (particularly with Options Ex this week in USA & Here?). The neck tie MAs look too strong to me. I guess $40 should pull it up but it may just want to bounce off possible support at ~ $39. Will know with surity when the ST resistance (sloping blue line in chart below) is breached again - should not have to wait long.....

Daily BHP chart: Seems to be having a love affair with the 200 D_MA at the moment...

bhp

Time to top up the shorts IMO

Happy trading DYOR

maxboost

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Thursday, June 26, 2008 - 08:03 pm:

Looks close to setting up its next move

paddy

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Friday, June 27, 2008 - 03:00 am:

BHP move well underway in NY. Down over 2.5% .

Downside targets $79.50 - $75

tryhay

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Tuesday, July 01, 2008 - 08:39 am:

Looks to be a failed move (discussed above) with BHP & markets in general looking stronger (I really mean oversold) even if the volume is not like last time.
BHP Shorts (etc) are still ITM but if we don't get increased volatility this week then may just be the time to bail.

BHP_NYSE Chart: 50 D ma looks to be providing support

bhp nyse

Happy trading DYOR

tryhay

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Saturday, July 05, 2008 - 06:50 am:

Things change on the market with the time of day/week!

Wonder if a retest of the neck line is on the cards here. I've taken some profit last week and keen to top up if a retest actually does occur.

Slightly different chart view: All short term Moving Averages pointing lower (and unwound) with heaps more puts than calls volume on Friday........

BHP_XAO_MA

Very interesting

Happy trading DYOR

tryhay

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Tuesday, July 15, 2008 - 02:22 pm:

Well BHP is in a tight rangebound pennant ~ some would say bearish.

Not enough indicators are positive IMO so I've reduced my holdings and topped up the short shorts. As mentioned elsewhere the XMJ is looking poor (has a similar H&S pattern with a target ~1660 from current price action).

BHP Daily chart: I would like to believe there is not cause for alarm, nothing to see here & everybody go home ~ it just don't look right .... Perhaps $35.00 will pull it up before the bounce we must all be waiting for

bhp

XMJ Chart: Moving averages and price action heading in the wrong direction ATM..

xmj

Looks like the afternoon selloff has just hit the market & BHP's price action has just dropped to the bottom of the pennant...

(Message edited by tryhay on July 15, 2008)

Happy trading DYOR

paddy

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Sunday, July 20, 2008 - 07:05 am:

Tryhay : Stirred the pot and came up with "BHP by the Fibs"

Ranges used $15.55 to $50[ designated F--MT] and $31 to $50[ designated ST ]

The action, in my opinion, of BHP since its High of $50 has been, in part, controlled by Fibonacci Levels.

I give you :

Fib Level-----------Date--------------Stock Action

F0.00------50.00 ---5/16------50.00---[A]
--------------------6/24------45.88---[c]
F0.236ST---45.52
--------------------7/2-------42.89---[D]
F0.382ST---42.74
F0.236MT---41.87
--------------------6/12------41.80--[B]
F0.500ST---40.50
--------------------7/11------40.35--[G]
--------------------7/3-------39.82--[E]
--------------------7/10------38.80--[F]
F0.618ST---38.26
--------------------7/17------37.55--[H]
F0.382MT---36.84
--------------------7/18------36.65--[I]
F0.764ST---35.48
F0.500MT---32.78
F1.000ST---31.00
F0.618MT---28.71
F0.764MT---23.68
F1.000MT---15.55

The 7/17 Close below the F0.618ST meant that there was a possible reversal in primary trend and that downward could become dominant direction.

The 7/18 action of closing below the F0.382MT was not a positive sign.

There could be a "bounce" as the Close was just below the Fib Level. The now overlying Fib levels are now all levels of Resistance.

If there is no "bounce" then it can be see from above that the next downside targets are 35.48 and 32.78.

Regards,

Paddy

tryhay

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Sunday, July 20, 2008 - 08:27 am:

paddy wrote on Sunday, July 20, 2008 - 07:05 am:
If there is no "bounce" then it can be see from above that the next downside targets are 35.48 and 32.78.

Hello Paddy,

You are welcome to have an antithesis ~ I guess that is what a share trading forum is all about.....

The metaphore relevant to share movement IMO is "Golf spoils a good walk" (that is for those whose handicap is ~ 30 or more) and share price often times heads towards a "target" but commonly not in a direct line. Given that then it is quite possible that BHP price action experiences a bounce this week (as it does look O'sold), but I will hold the puts as they are well in the money, and provided they behave, are expected to hit at least $34.50 or more likely $33.50 (but who is greedy) & yes it is possible that once the target is achieved a lower target can emerge. For the day traders out there you just might capture every bounce in share price but as I can not sit on the trading screen or have constant access to trading then I have to be happy with slightly longer time frame and pick up the intermediate trends.

On a related matter if this means I don't win the Weekly Competition then so be it. I don't much care about that (but it is a nice achievement), I care more about the trades that I do and how they progress in real time (not some artificial constraint of one week for the competition ~ if you follow what I am saying). For example CFE was a choice a couple of weeks ago and it now looks to be set to uncoil from the spring described (to the upside)

BHP Daily chart: price action looking O'sold but what direction is the trend?

bhp

Happy trading DYOR

paddy

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Sunday, July 20, 2008 - 08:53 am:

Tryhay : If there is a "bounce" like in "dead cat" it won't go very far before it continues downward to targets mentioned in other post as the Fibs were broken so clearly.

May the price drop like a stone and your account floweth over.

Never have been one for "cow pasture pool" .

Sooner go fishing.

Regards,

Paddy

paddy

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Monday, July 21, 2008 - 01:18 pm:

Tryhay : BHP has done, so far, as suggested. The Close on Friday was too close to the F0.382MT Fib that a bounce was possible.

So far the upper Resistance defined by the F0.618ST Fib has held. I could be wrong but I think that level will limit any further rise in stock price. The reason for that is the manner in which the F0.618ST Fib level was broken to downside by $1.61 . I see in the AM if I was right .

F0.618ST---38.26

-------------------7/21--12:15--38.22--H2
-------------------7/21--10:20--38.05--H1

-------------------7/21-10:00--37.50--OPEN
-------------------7/21-10:00--37.25--L1

F0.382MT---36.84
-------------------7/18--16:00------36.65--PREV. CLOSE

Adios

Paddy

paddy

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Tuesday, July 22, 2008 - 09:58 am:

F0.618ST---38.26

-------------------7/21--12:15--38.22--H2
-------------------------------7/21-16:00--38.20--CLOSE
-------------------7/21--10:20--38.05--H1

-------------------7/21-10:00--37.50--OPEN
-------------------7/21-10:00--37.25--L1

F0.382MT---36.84
-------------------7/18--16:00------36.65--PREV. CLOSE

F0.764ST---35.48
F0.500MT---32.78
F1.000ST---31.00

The F0.618ST held so for 7/22 should see reversal and a test of F0.382MT and probably the F0.764ST @ 35.48 .

Adios

Paddy

tryhay

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Saturday, August 02, 2008 - 10:45 am:

After ~5% drop in NYSE & finding resistance at the 200D_MA it looks like the price action here is about to resume the trend

BHP Daily chart: Most indicators have (or look like ) turning turtle

bhp

NYSE BHP Chart Break away gap here?

NYSE_bhp

Should have topped up on friday....

Happy trading DYOR

sway

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Saturday, August 02, 2008 - 11:36 am:

Tryhay
I guess it depends on your timeframe.
bhp

Cheers
Sway

This is not a recommendation or advice. As they say .... DYOR.

paddy

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Saturday, August 02, 2008 - 11:48 am:

Tryhay: Certainly was a decisive Gap Down . However does the Volume fit for a Breakaway Gap Down? I agree that the Indicators are heading south. I'll be surprised if the stock does not continue in a downward correction on Monday.

Notice that there was a Gap Down on the 24th that had an increase in volume. However there was no follow through to the downside.

As I see it, the major difference this time, ignoring the Volume question, is that the Indicators are positioned for a downward follow through in the correction.

Regards,

Paddy

paddy

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Sunday, August 03, 2008 - 01:05 am:

Re : BHP [ NYSE ] Close august 1, 2008 -- $70.25

Fibs and Time Frames

Fibonacci Levels for 3 Time frames [ 2002 , 2004, 2007 to recent High of $95.61 ]

====== F.236 == F.382 == F0.5

Long -----75.15 -- 62.49

Medium -- 76.49 -- 64.67

Short --- 81.63 -- 72.98 ---65.99

====================

The Close of 70.25 represents a correction of :

=====Long Term === 29.2%
==== Medium Term == 31.3%
==== Short Term == 42.8%

==========================
Bollinger Bands values :

Time Frame UBB ===== MBB ==== LBB

Daily ---------- na ------na ----- 69.47

Weekly --------- na ---- 79.23 --- 63.20

Monthly ------- na ---- 66.70 --- na

===========

Miscellaneous

TRL that would act as Support - present value ± 66

===========

In my opinion, BHP is headed for additional correction . A correction down to 62.50 would be Normal and would complete all Bollinger Band cycles in preparation for the next rise in price.

Regards,

Paddy

paddy

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Tuesday, August 05, 2008 - 06:26 am:

With a downside Breakaway Gap it appears that BHP has run out of Support . Presently down to $66.76 . If continues at this Level it will have a Close that should result in further downside with key levels to watch @ $65.48 and $62.49 .

$62.49 [ F0.382 ] is level where there can be a Reversal .

Last minute activity brought the price back up from $66.76 to a Close @ $67.62 which is, by my numbers, $0.29 above the sub-F0.618 level. Whether this will result in Reversal of the downward correction will be resolved tomorrow .

Look for test of $68.82 [ upside] and $67.33 [ downside].

Paddy

tryhay

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Tuesday, August 05, 2008 - 05:31 pm:

paddy wrote on Saturday, August 02, 2008 - 11:48 am:
However does the Volume fit for a Breakaway Gap Down?

That is why I put in the question mark, but volume and momentum has certainly picked up recently!

BHP Daily chart: Indicators looking poor and the target is looming

bhp

XMJ Daily: Perhaps some short term support is around here but looks like it is going much further (sounds familiar)

xmj

Happy trading DYOR

paddy

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Wednesday, August 06, 2008 - 05:46 am:

Tryhay : I guess you didn't see my subsequent posts where I answered the question re volume on the Gap Down myself. I decided that there were too many Negatives that outweighed the lack of volume.

Today BHP [ NYSE} is carrying on with the correction . OIl price is also helping with a Low today of $118. So far Low is $64.83 . If Close is below $65.99, now at $65.43, then $59 becomes a Target . It is probably reachable if oil continues its correction down to sub $100.

The candlestick pattern consisting of the recent High and those below the EMA 9 shall be designated the "Cayendo Zopilotes". Today it is the "tres Cayendo Zopilotes. The one above the EMA 9 doesn't count because still roosting on the cactus. Not for real but I like the formation.

Stock, with 15 min to go, at $65.47 - going to be close.

Regards,

Paddy

paddy

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Friday, August 08, 2008 - 06:32 am:

August 7th NYSE - BHP

Back on track for the correction. With the Close of $67.04 [ down $2.06 ] on 3.567 million shares

Barring any interference the downside targets are :

65.99 - 65.48 - 64.67 -- 62.49

Regards,

Paddy

paddy

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Saturday, August 09, 2008 - 02:56 am:

BHP - NYSE

Correction continuing after canceling the "one day rally" . The 'tres zopilotes" have resumed their downward spiral.

At present time, Low has been $64.54 . Presently at $65.50 . Looking for a Close below $65.48 .

Regards,

Paddy

paddy

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Saturday, August 09, 2008 - 08:34 am:

BHP - NYSE

Looks like the Target of the Head & Shoulders pattern is going to be met. The H&S pattern may not meet all criteria but then nothing in life is perfect. Perhaps early this coming week barring any weather / political disturbances.

I have a target,from H&S pattern, of 62.59.

This value is supported by a Long Term Fib 0.382 @ 62.49 and a Short Term sub-Fib @ 62.49 .

Close of 65.77 is below ST F0.5 @ 65.99. This sets up test for ST Fib 0.618 @ 59.00

MT Fib 0.382 @ 64.67 is target on the way to perhaps 59.00

LT F0.382 @ 62.49 supports the H&S target.

Paddy

paddy

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Tuesday, August 12, 2008 - 07:30 am:

BHP - NYSE

Stock continued with the correction . Low of $63.15 and Close @ $63.96

Targets : 63.32 - 62.49 - 59 - 55.11

Paddy

paddy

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Wednesday, August 13, 2008 - 11:26 pm:

From article : Temporary correction?

It is interesting looking at BHP Billiton in London today - it actually hit its downside target from a large head and shoulders pattern, which is one of the more well known technical patterns. It hit that target today so based on that there is a very good chance - and since we are seeing the underlying commodities turning around right now as we speak we could very well get a nice rally in the underlying commodity shares as well.

http://transcripts.businessday.co.za/cgi-bin/transcripts/t-showtranscript.pl?121 8587833

sway

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Saturday, August 30, 2008 - 11:30 pm:

Business as usual for the mighty BHP.

bhp

Cheers
Sway

This is not a recommendation or advice. As they say .... DYOR.

paddy

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Wednesday, September 03, 2008 - 07:23 am:

BHP - NYSE Took a severe hit today with stock down $5.76 or 8.17% .

CLOSE @ $64.75 and I would say more downside in immediate future.

Regards,

Paddy

tryhay

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Thursday, January 01, 2009 - 08:59 pm:

An interesting inverse H&S has formed with BHP & should soon be read it & weep time IMO: has to burst through the neck line, master the down-trending resistance, cope with gap resistance, beat the 200D_MA and maintain momentum ~ not impossible, but worth following to trade the outcome

BHP Daily chart: Somehow I can not see the H&S target being achieved any time soon ~ there once was a thread here somewhere with $15 ? being the ultimate target for BHP, either Archer, Perler or Justice were also posting on it....

bhp

Anyone following the action?

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Happy trading DYOR

tryhay

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Sunday, January 11, 2009 - 07:54 am:

Have not seen coyotte post much lately, trust you are only enjoying holidays and nothing more serious....

coyotte wrote on Saturday, March 15, 2008 - 11:55 pm:
Something not adding up here :

1 + 1 should give 2, but BHP & XMJ are at the pointie end of a triangle with stiff resistance upcoming (200D_MA) + resistance, could provide some entertainment sometime soon..

Weekly chart: after serious downtrend (since 1/2 way through last year), and not sure if it has the legs to persist with the demonstrated recovery since November lows (Doji suggests indecision ATM). More likely to respect resistance for another push down some time soon IMO ~ especially if Dow J is rattled by more excitement soon....

BHP_W