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     captain_chaza
Member
Username: captain_chaza
Post Number: 2999
Registered: 02-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, February 10, 2008 - 06:29 pm: |  
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Is it such a bad idea for BHP to only have 50% of RIO
Crikey !
I wouldn't mind a share in the 50% profits of RIO and a share in 100% of the profits of BHP
It seems to me it looks like I am going to have to put on my thinking cap one of these days
Salute and Gods'speed
"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.
"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate."
Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893
"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897
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adzman
Member
Username: adzman
Post Number: 121
Registered: 08-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, February 19, 2008 - 05:52 pm: |
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BHP started trading out of its channel early January. I believe it is at a critical point, it needs to get back above $40 and back into the channel else back to $32 and possibly $28 (bottom of the new trading channel)
TMF now positive with price above 200MA which is still rising. Volume has been just short of l/term average.
Todays candle suggests a "shooting star" which indicates a reversal. Other indicators look ok.
Comments please - I hold
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tryhay
Member
Username: tryhay
Post Number: 938
Registered: 09-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, February 19, 2008 - 07:54 pm: |
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FWIW I'm short ~ I'm finding it hard to swallow the "things are rosie" blurb. "XAO snapped back on the back of banks & blurp,,, ANZ recovered some of the losses of yesterday [up 14c] sheeash....."
Daily chart: Perhaps things will change as we look ? A bit more NNe could change my mind though (not holding my breath)
Happy trading DYOR
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sway
Member
Username: sway
Post Number: 155
Registered: 12-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, February 19, 2008 - 11:13 pm: |
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Adzman
With the FTSE strong tonight and DJ looking to go higher as well, we should see more rise in our market tomorrow. And since BHP is running well ahead of the general market, I would expect it to easily move further above the 200d EMA.
Sway
PS I'm holding BHP in both my trading account and my SMSF.
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captain_chaza
Member
Username: captain_chaza
Post Number: 3030
Registered: 02-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, February 22, 2008 - 02:20 pm: |
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Ahoy Brave and Loyal Crew
Hold on Tight!
Salute and Gods' speed
"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.
"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate."
Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893
"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897
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captain_chaza
Member
Username: captain_chaza
Post Number: 3032
Registered: 02-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, February 23, 2008 - 04:48 pm: |
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Ahoy Brave and Loyal crew
BHP up 2.70% in NY overnight
RIO up 1.06%
Read into these figures what you like
Whether the sails are half full or half empty
but be aware
BHP is going Ex-Dividend on Monday
With regard to the "Iron Ore" negotiations in the past It has always been a Gentleman's agreement that the first negotiations set the price for the all for the year
BHP has always sought for the 6% extra because of cheaper Transport costs to Asia but RIO was the one who always upset the apple-cart
Now that the RIO board of directors have their own Jobs on the line they have gone with the old BHP idea to show some upmanship
Whether BHP-Tinto will now split the difference at say 3% is still to be negotiated
Crikey! If we can live with an OIL cartel like OPEC I can't see why we can't bring our Iron Ore cartel out of the cupboard in these modern times
The problem now as I see it on Monday is "The Beginning of The End" of the BEAR Market
Will these Greedy Landlubbers Sell their BHP-Tinto to jump back into the Banks or are they cashed up enough without having to sell one of the best Booming Commodity markets I have ever seen
The fact is that most Fund Managers who have missed this Commodity Boom will surely be asked to walk the plank
Crikey! How can they ever catch up to those with only the average level of seamanship?
The answer is "Never"
Unless we now start making mistakes!!!
It'll be nice to do some "Plain Sailing" for a change,Hey?
Salute and Gods' speed
PS: Ahoy Sea-Cadet Nicola
I suggest you get all your excuses ready
"Only a Mother Would believe"
(Message edited by Captain_Chaza on February 23, 2008)
"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.
"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate."
Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893
"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897
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rockon
Member
Username: rockon
Post Number: 258
Registered: 08-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, February 23, 2008 - 08:11 pm: |
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http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23260389-643,00.html
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tryhay
Member
Username: tryhay
Post Number: 943
Registered: 09-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, February 25, 2008 - 05:16 pm: |
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Be nice to top up, but am expecting a gap down tomorrow...
This was the announcement...
"HEAVY JANUARY AND FEBRUARY RAINFALL CAUSES PRODUCTION IMPACT AT QUEENSLAND COAL OPERATIONS
BHP Billiton has today provided a preliminary estimate of the production impact of the recent heavy rainfall experienced across Queensland's Bowen Basin (Australia).
While these assessments are continuing, it is currently estimated that the two significant rainfall events, on January 18 - 20 and February 9 - 14, will impact FY08 production from the BHP Billiton Mitsubishi Alliance (BMA) owned mines by between 6.5 and 7.5 million tonnes. In addition, the FY08 production impact from the BHP Billiton Mitsui (BMC) owned mines is estimated to be between 0.5 and 1.0 million tonnes. These assessments include any rollover into FY09.
The BHP Billiton share of this production impact is between 3.7 and 4.6 million tonnes after taking into account relevant ownership. BHP Billiton has insurance cover for property damage and business interruption losses, and potential claims are currently being assessed.
BMA CEO John Smith said:
* "These are initial assessments of the impacts on production due to the inability to safely operate the mines and to maintain access for our people and supplies following the rains.
* We anticipate we will be better informed on the actual extent of the impact as the recovery process proceeds and mines are brought back to full operational capacity. We will provide an update on the impacts if they are materially different from our preliminary assessments once the situation has been fully assessed.
* Our focus remains on ensuring the safety of all employees and contractors at our operations and on swift recovery of operations, including dewatering of the pits. We are working with the EPA to meet their conditions and minimise downstream impacts.
* We are also continuing to work with our customers to minimise disruption to their businesses" he said.
Daily chart: Be interesting to see the London & US trading tonight to be sure...
Happy trading DYOR
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tryhay
Member
Username: tryhay
Post Number: 950
Registered: 09-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, March 11, 2008 - 06:15 am: |
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For those up the back staring out of the window, the overnight trading in NY seems to indicate the current direction of BHP
Daily chart: Increased volume, lower breakaway gap/s, multiple failure of support/resistance...
Happy trading DYOR
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tryhay
Member
Username: tryhay
Post Number: 951
Registered: 09-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, March 11, 2008 - 06:30 pm: |
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and the australian share mirrors the NY model ~ just did not have the momentum to swing higher....
adzman wrote on Tuesday, February 19, 2008 - 06:52 pm:BHP started trading out of its channel early January. I believe it is at a critical point, it needs to get back above $40 and back into the channel else back to $32 and possibly $28 (bottom of the new trading channel)
should have topped up but XJO shorts will have to do...
Happy trading DYOR
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coyotte
Member
Username: coyotte
Post Number: 497
Registered: 12-2002
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, March 13, 2008 - 08:51 pm: |
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BHP :
Probably old hat by now -- but this looks like a well and truly failed H&S to the UP :
The Black and dominate H&S is targeting the Mid to Low $20s area .
The Secondary Red H&S has failed and was around $50 target -- the H&S trend line is down sloping -- should have been at least level or better up sloping .
as i see it this is a clear cut warning for Longs in the Miners -- hence have closed Long Hedges in the Mining Sector and just running BHP & RIO SHORT .
All we need now is Swing Low followed by a Swing High that fails to take out the red RS -- you could put one your rentals on a Short then .
.
The "Sea of Uncertainty" is defeated by the nimble vessel "Probability", not the unwieldy vessel "Prediction".
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tryhay
Member
Username: tryhay
Post Number: 953
Registered: 09-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, March 14, 2008 - 06:34 am: |
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Hi coyotte,
Yes, a good thing about the share market is that share price does not often move from point "A" to "B" without some deviation (bit like a game of golf): I don't think BHP is rocketing to sub $31 immediately, however it just may head a lot lower than $31 over time (reference the lower lows and lower highs since october last year, the fact that we are in bear market, and if the bit messy chart pattern/s play out). What a paradigm shift our markets have had in just 3 months!
coyotte do you still use ATM model for computer traded shares? quote from another september thread below..
coyotte wrote on Tuesday, September 11, 2007 - 10:33 pm:AMT Model
Frank Dilernia's -- Analytical Market Trading.
Dynamic "Time" Trend Lines -- can be made as simple or as complicated as you wish --- can be used with a spreadsheet (no charts) or up to " Fibonacci Trader " Software .
Basically the method works around a fixed price (Balance Point) for the trading period in question and you trade to this price --- for this week going by the model LGL is in a strong uptrend (has been by the model for quite a while)--- but the trading method calls for SHORT if above 3.40 back to 3.25 (BP) --- you just trade either side of the BP for the period in question -- been using it for around 8mths now and price will more than often return to the BP during the period being traded (75% of around 500 trades) and close (66%) within +/-5% --- these are my results holding from intra-day to 1 week, with multiple entries/exits
Weekly chart: BHP definately not heading in the right direction ATM
I'd like to top up my shorts but am ~75% cash & ~25% short & toy long...
Happy trading DYOR
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coyotte
Member
Username: coyotte
Post Number: 498
Registered: 12-2002
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, March 14, 2008 - 09:17 am: |
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