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     dug
Member
Username: dug
Post Number: 2995
Registered: 07-2005
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Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, March 26, 2008 - 10:55 am: |  
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Using Lihir LGL as a benchmark responder to the Gold Price,I'm trying to "get a handle" on the recent declines in price of several Junior Gold Miners who have Reserves and some plans for production "soon".
There's a theory running round of some "conspiracy" to downramp Junior Gold Miners.Proponents are perplexed by the Rising Gold Price yet the determined share price fall.Dark Forces are at work,They say.HOLD they admonish even though recently Gold Juniors are going down the Hole.
Anyway a Comparative Chart.
Now I have "difficulties" interpreting this chart and any critique by anyone else is welcome but as I see it-
The Break by most all the Juniors occurred in the Mid Jan Feb period.That is the price comparative to LGL separated "dramatically" at that time.
PRE being the Lowest Price[2/5cents] as well as doing gold as a "sideline" is the most "speculative" of the Group and it is no surprise it [PRE]has performed worst.
Other shares have only been captioned so as to differentiate their colours which are programmed pretty close together.
IGR Integra is performing the Best.
Now are there any other shares preferably Emerging Going to be Producers that should be included in this exercise?
For example I don't think SBM qualifies and it'd be better if the Comparison was Not with the Price of Lihir but the Gold Price.
There are several reasons also why the Gold Price Rise is not affecting Non Producers Positively ie Currency and Increasing Costs factors.Any others?
Personally I think too much has been made of the 1980's Financial Crisis that led to a Boom in Junior Gold Miners is going to repeat again in Modern Times but that's just my ratbag,unprovable non researched view.
Anyone out there in or stuck,staying staunch by Junior Gold Miners want to tell me about it?
Happy trading.
Even 'til Jaded.
Dig for the sake of it.
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dug
Member
Username: dug
Post Number: 2996
Registered: 07-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, March 26, 2008 - 12:37 pm: |
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Found some more Companies and set up a criteria sort of.
Adding CRE,GRY,MUN.
These shares,All of them,are priced under a $1.
They also pretty much have a $200 mil Market Cap difference between the Top [IGR ~ $213 mil] and the Bottom [KAL ~$12 mil].
Some of the List of Ten Shares are Producing already but in very small amounts so I reckon they are still useful for Comparisons.
The List in Order of Market Capitalisation is-
IGR;CRE;PRU;MUN;NGF;HEG;NAV;GRY;PRE;KAL.
Any Others? If so,I'd prefer to keep to Ten Shares and cull on the Basis of Companies NOT mining,exploring for Gold in Australia being eliminated.
I don't go for Sovereign Risk,I'm Zen-ophobic like that.
cheers.
Even 'til Jaded.
Dig for the sake of it.
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dug
Member
Username: dug
Post Number: 2997
Registered: 07-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, March 26, 2008 - 01:38 pm: |
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Because of Xenophobia I reckon the comparison should be moved from LGL [Lihir] to SBM [St Barbara].I think SBM is the aspirational Goal of All these Juniors compared to Lihir.So I'll change the Comparison Chart cos,well,I just feel like it.
A Comparison of the Ten in Shares on Issue breaks them into 2 Groups.
TOP 5Shares on Issue in order are-
PRE;CRE;IGR;NGF;HEG.
These run approx Billion On Issue to 240 mil on Issue.
Running Next 160 mil to least 120mil Shares Issued is
PRU;NAV;KAL;MUN;GRY.
There's really not much between these last 5 in Difference in Number of Shares on Issue Percentage-wise.
Then again there is only a "Fine Point" to Comparing Shares on Issue in the first place but I just use it to sort/categorise/differentiate for comparing Market Cap between these 10 to find which ones have d'Money flowing into them more than any others.I assume that IF a share is Thrashing it's Equals,it might/MUST be a Better GO!
more later.
Even 'til Jaded.
Dig for the sake of it.
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malfrey
Member
Username: malfrey
Post Number: 1
Registered: 02-2008Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, March 26, 2008 - 09:29 pm: |
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Hello, Suggest you may add SAU to your list. IGR interesting one to watch.
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dug
Member
Username: dug
Post Number: 2999
Registered: 07-2005
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| | Thursday, March 27, 2008 - 09:29 am: |
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greetings malfrey,
added SAU along with MON.It's quite difficult doing the comparison chart with 12 entries so I'm going to break the Group up.
I have this list as First to Last in price comparison movement to Lihir.
IGR,MUN,HEG,CRE,PRU,NGF,MON,GRY,SAU,NAV,KAL,PRE.
Breaking Above the 150DEMA are IGR,MUN,HEG,MON with NGF just under.
So below the 150 are CRE,GRY,SAU,PRE.KAL,NAV.These are not yet in any order of DownTrend etc.I'll try and do something on that soon.
I noted that SAU had a good candle yesterday.
but malfrey have you any thoughts on Why these Junior Golders are mostly all "off d'boil" considering all the talk about rising Gold Prices,Gold as the safe harbour in these troubled Financial Times?
BTW filling out your profile of All Details incl address and phone number can get you off time delay quicker.
cheers.
Even 'til Jaded.
Dig for the sake of it.
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coyotte
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Username: coyotte
Post Number: 545
Registered: 12-2002
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| | Thursday, March 27, 2008 - 09:38 am: |
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probably wrong here Dug .
but was under the impression that the Jnrs moved in the FINAL Leg UP . --- actually more of a warning that the run was in it's final move up,
The "Sea of Uncertainty" is defeated by the nimble vessel "Probability", not the unwieldy vessel "Prediction".
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dug
Member
Username: dug
Post Number: 3000
Registered: 07-2005
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| | Thursday, March 27, 2008 - 09:56 am: |
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was just thinking your point,coyotte.
I was wondering if Gold Juniors attract a lot of Margin Call players,spiv speculator types more than other sectors?
Saw a PileDriver January in one of the charts,forget which now but will keep my eye out for these in all the charts.
Do you agree that Gold jnrs have a propensity to draw the green and brown[new&old]get rich quickers?
Even 'til Jaded.
Dig for the sake of it.
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dug
Member
Username: dug
Post Number: 3001
Registered: 07-2005
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| | Thursday, March 27, 2008 - 10:17 am: |
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coyotte told me/us about this Candle called the PileDriver.Our very own Darryl Guppy "devised" it.It seems to be defined as being a Wide Ranging Day DOWN that comes back BUT then in the following weeks price goes down to the Pile Driver's Lowest Point and usually even lower.
Coyotte can you tell us some more about it?
Now the 22nd of January was PileDriver Day all over most charts.Note how it "completed",gave a Good Indication with GRY but was passed over in application with IGR.
Even 'til Jaded.
Dig for the sake of it.
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stun
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Username: stun
Post Number: 108
Registered: 03-2004
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| | Thursday, March 27, 2008 - 03:26 pm: |
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Hi Dug,
Have not heard of that candle described as a piledriver.
Dr Elder described it as a kangaroo tail, generally signalling a reversal of a downtrend. It is a wide ranging candle down where the close was near to the open. My interpretation of it was the exact opposite of a blowoff top.
In the case of GRY, there was no real downtrend prior to it, so I would not regard it as a true example, even less so when we remember what happened that day!!
IGR may be better pictured as a double bottom, a much more strong signal of reversal.
‘There is a time to be long, a time to be short, and a time to go fishing.’
... Jesse Livemore
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malfrey
Member
Username: malfrey
Post Number: 2
Registered: 02-2008Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, March 27, 2008 - 08:25 pm: |
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Hi Stun & Dug,
In answer to the question: "Why these Junior Golders are mostly all "off d'boil" considering all the talk about rising Gold Prices,Gold as the safe harbour in these troubled Financial Times?"
The juniors that are not producing are viewed as a much greater risk. They have no income and are usually trying to get their exploration done with the capital obtained by share raising. So if the market goes down what hard assets do they have? Hmm not much. They usually also require a good capital injection when it comes time to set up the actual mining operation. If the share price is down then more shares are required to obtain the necessary funding and so the returns per share will also be down. Resulting in investors staying away in down times because they do not see the future value especially when it may be required to be shared by many others. So there is a bit of a spiral downwards.
But when companies like IGR who are not producers have been consitantly and methodically doing their prospecting and keeping the market imformed of the results, which are evaluated as good, with the prospect of more rusults to come the market keeps the positive sentiment as the market has seen from the past that the sp has gone up when good results are released. Trust in the management is another factor.
In times like these where every one has the jitters and capital is getting harder to find because of the credit crunch the traders move out because they do not want to get caught with holding the shares over night or over week-ends because the AUX follows the US market like a slave at the moment. See chart.
Juniors at the moment will go up if there is a take ove in the happening. See Lion (LST)
Thanks for letting me ramble.
Malfrey
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malfrey
Member
Username: malfrey
Post Number: 3
Registered: 02-2008Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, March 27, 2008 - 08:45 pm: |
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Dug & Stan,
I have run your suggestions through my graphing technique and the ones that stand out imho, are IGR, LST, MON, SAU, GRY. The others I would not look at right now. No definite trends to follow. I attach the IGR so you can see the graph technique I have just learnt to use.
Malfrey
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dug
Member
Username: dug
Post Number: 3003
Registered: 07-2005
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| | Friday, March 28, 2008 - 09:24 am: |
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stun wrote on Thursday, March 27, 2008 - 04:26 pm:Have not heard of that candle described as a piledriver.
Dr Elder described it as a kangaroo tail, generally signalling a reversal of a downtrend
greetings stun,
Despite chat rooms having a dreadful reputation for being filled with rubbish misleading infomation,they or at least this one sometimes come up with information that is Dynamic,not yet written about in books by Yank 'experts".
So your Dr Elder was describing what is known also as Stop Loss Raids,right?Where a share in a DownTrend suddenly has a wide ranging day Down only to recover after some "BigBoy" has shaken out auto stops or alternatively a Morning Star Candle signifies a Reversal.Haven't read Elder myself,stun just got d'Gist from this Forum.
Now,stun,Darryl Guppy in Australia has identified this type of Candle,he calls the PileDriver which has an Opposite Interpretation,as far as I know, that a Candle as illustrated CAN/May/Could show the bottom level of subsequent WEEKS action.Not a Reversal of Downtrend but a Sign of where a share could CONTINUE to reach DOWN.
I've illustrated it in Long Term with a Chart of CFU showing the PileDriver in AUGUST 07,during a DownTrend signifying the bottom level that CFU in the following weeks reached and exceeded.
I'm going to look further into this New Pattern Indicator because it is the Opposite of Common Wisdom ie Kangaroo Tails and look forward to any further contribution you can make,stun.
cheers.
ps-will continue on Gold Juniors and your now Non Time Delayed contributions,malfrey later.
Even 'til Jaded.
Dig for the sake of it.
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dug
Member
Username: dug
Post Number: 3004
Registered: 07-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, March 28, 2008 - 12:25 pm: |
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So malfrey,you seem to have the basics and are able to discuss same in a lucid manner[Reference your 2nd post above]
Now that's all very true about the Need of Gold Juniors to often raise Cash by Placements to Sophisticated Investors OR preferably by Issuing more shares to ALL Holders by Rights etc.
I feel though that a more "dark" happening has occured to bring a lot of these Junior Golders into DownTrend.
It [d'Dark] is NOT the chief or main reason for the decline.Those Main Reasons are what you,malfrey have alluded to.
I'm thinking more about "amateurs",newbies,mum'n'dad retail investors.Them THEY who I call Pilgrims to Mammon.
I'm thinking/wondering that these Pilgrims have been "caught" thinking Gold as Safe Haven as well as Gold being real popular to the Chindia axis and they came in Buying from say October or even at the peak December only to get caught holding the Bag while Professionals swanned off with their Swag.
Do you follow,malfrey?
I'm taking coyotte's earlier point about Gold Fever being "known" as indicating a Top,a Blow Off Generally observed as a TOP to the General Market.
To this I'm trying to check out from a Range of Gold Juniors,the ones who are showing some Fortitude Guts.
Are showing they weren't involved in any Manipulation,Fever by pilgrims No They,these to be discovered ones,are Up Trending or at least coming out of a consolidation ready for better things.
So far as I see it we have IGR and possibly MUN.However I dislike MUN due to my prejudice against Overseas Based Companies.So I'm personally going to reject doing any more work on it but anyone else?Feel Free.
Now,malfrey there's a method of opening new threads within a single thread here at IC.It is possible to take discussion on a single share up within this Gold Juniors Thread.
It's done by Opening this particular thread and finding up at the Top there under the Heading Gold Juniors the red highlighted Start New Thread bit.
Opening there keeps the discussion in this particular Topic.
All pretty confusing,I suppose but I'll open a Thread on say SAU to give you d'Gist later.
cheers.
Even 'til Jaded.
Dig for the sake of it.
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rockon
Member
Username: rockon
Post Number: 261
Registered: 08-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, March 28, 2008 - 12:30 pm: |
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Gold Juniors the Next Profit Strategy
Friday, 28 March 2008 - Melbourne Australia
By Al Robinson
Gold Juniors the Next Profit Strategy
Barrick Takes Holding in Allied Gold
Reserve Bank Likely to Maintain Inflation Focus
Oil at US$107
Gold Juniors the Next Profit Strategy
Well, gold hasn’t crashed. And it doesn’t look like it’s going to. Do you agree? We found our French colleague and professional trader Gabriel André murdering a croissant at his desk this morning. Maybe you’ll find his simple analysis of the precious metal convincing.
“Gold could easily go straight back up to US$1000. Consider what has happened in the last two weeks…the dollar has resumed its negative trend…stocks have fallen…commodities and precious metals have good upside in the coming months. It shows that this was just a speculative clear-out.”
He quickly resumed his destruction of the croissant. We agree with the point he makes. As long as America continues de-valuing its currency with inflationary fiscal and monetary policies, gold will have upside.
But what is the best way for you to profit from it?
Australia has a fragmented gold industry. That, in plain English, means there are a lot of smaller companies for you to choose from. Apart from two big, chunky producers in Newcrest (ASX:NCM) and Lihir (ASX:LGL), the rest of the market consists of little bits and pieces.
The biggest gold miners in the world are struggling to locate new deposits as fast as they’d like. Gold is shy. It rarely occurs in the earth’s crust. If you grab a random handful of dirt anywhere on the planet, there’s a 1 in 200 million chance you’ll be holding gold.
So, large-caps need more gold but they can’t find it. With Aussie gold companies 13% off their high (see below) it’s the ideal time to buy explorers with developing assets.
----------------------------------So it’s not surprising that Barrick Gold (TSE:ABX), the world’s biggest gold miner, just bought 5% of Aussie gold explorer Allied Gold (ASX:ALD). The two will collaborate on Allied’s project in Papua New Guinea. The stock rose 12% on the announcement.
Equigold (ASX:EQI) is combining with Lihir (ASX:LGL), as you probably read a few days ago. Gold market consolidation looks as though it’s shifting up a gear. The companies that will benefit from this the most are juniors. They’re the stocks getting bought out for premiums, thanks to their new gold finds.
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dug
Member
Username: dug
Post Number: 3005
Registered: 07-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, March 28, 2008 - 12:58 pm: |
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thanks rockon for that cut'paste article.That's the current "insider info" line,hey?
TakeOver Target.Get hold of one of them and your Fortune is made.
Like they say a little bit of knowledge is a dangerous thing.
but mostly the pilgrims stive for KISS.Simplicity the forming of a Nexus/Connection based on Gold Price is going up so ergo Junior Goldies are "desirable".
ya're gunner make a killing from financial disaster.
THEY[d'pay4info info] whisper in the unfortunate pilgrim's ear as they[d'pilgrims] holds thru the decline.
There's some charting techniques that give one some ideas of Accumulation for TakeOver,isn't there rockon?Are you going to be able to contribute to any discussion about these If/When these wonderful get out of being sunked TakeOvers come round,up on the chart?
malfrey,mentioned one LST being taken over by Indophil [IRN] so instead of SAU,I'll open a thread in here on LST.We can check out IF TA actually is any help in identifying TakeOver Targets.
later.
Even 'til Jaded.
Dig for the sake of it.
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captain_chaza
Member
Username: captain_chaza
Post Number: 3111
Registered: 02-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, March 28, 2008 - 01:33 pm: |
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Ahoy John
Don't forget to pack the PRU and the ALK
Salute and Gods' speed
"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.
"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate."
Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893
"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897
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dug
Member
Username: dug
Post Number: 3008
Registered: 07-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, March 28, 2008 - 01:56 pm: |
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Already had PRU on the list,Charles but not ALK which is a Good One looking at it's chart so thanks for d'Tip.
I'm finding this PileDriver Gizmo real useful in seperating,winnowing thru this lot.ALK didn't react much at all to Jan 22 Black Tuesday.No Piledriver at all.I'm thinking that shows Soundness,Reliability by it's Holders and am taking that as a sign of not needing to Bean Count,Fundamentally confuse myself.
That's what I'm up to,Charles finding short cuts/circuits around FA.
Gold Juniors have way too much Insider Knowledge required about Grades etc blah to follow unless you're in Mining etc as an Occupation like REAL JOB,
yet it seems to me GOLD is still the Lure to d'Pilgrims it was back with Moses.
Anyhow ALK is on d'List.
cheers.
Even 'til Jaded.
Dig for the sake of it.
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dug
Member
Username: dug
Post Number: 3010
Registered: 07-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, March 29, 2008 - 10:31 am: |
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Recently received a copy of Guppy's definition of a Pile Driver but haven't opened the file yet to get confirmation or denial of my own interpretation.
I'm working solely off coyotte's post last week where he gave d'Gist[In Indicators Thread Is this a Double Top Topic]
Anyway I'm fully aware that my use of the PileDriver as found in charts using Jan 22 Black Tuesday may be "wrong" or lets say creative.
This was a Bad Day on the Market as a whole.DOW news,more sub prime woes,it might have even been Jan 22 that Bear Stearns kerfuffle hit the Market.
So it could be argued that using such a day's pattern is Not a Pure PileDriver a la Guppy.
My use is in seeing how any shares,in this case Gold Juniors reacted to the Downer of Tues 22/1.
I'm taking the point/outline of the Pile Driver candle that it can signify the following weeks price action declining to the lowest part of Jan 22 wick and even further below that.
With this fine point/thought I am trying to proceed with culling the Gold Junior List to find
a]Best Potential based on Strength in Hard Times ie does not perform to "classical" PileDriver in that the share has well and truly recovered from Jan 22.
b]Other "borderline" cases where the share has not YET fallen to or below the extremity of Jan 22.Shares that fall into this category MAY not have had enough Time yet to confirm the PileDriver indicator so these are WatchList Material.
c]Those shares Confirming the PileDriver Pattern,are in DownTrend below,significantly below,the 150DMA are for d'Cut/Cull.
I'll shove up some illustrative charts
later.
Even 'til Jaded.
Dig for the sake of it.
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dug
Member
Username: dug
Post Number: 3011
Registered: 07-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, March 29, 2008 - 10:57 am: |
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PRU is below the 150 but still above Pile Driver level.Give it time to confirm Pile Driv ? Also note the Aug 16 Low.This was another Bad Day.Think it was when Sub Prime first got mooted? Have noticed Pile Drivers on this day in a number of charts,some though with HindSight were Kangaroo Tails instead.I'm still thinking about the Psych Angles re PileDrivers.
NGF has confirmed PileDriver but is still quite close to 150 so it can bear watching.
Got tricked by MON.Only refered to my Brokers Chart Package which charted MON on Historical Data,including the Moving Average.This took NO Account of the recent reconstruction in Capital so showed MON is in UpTrend when in Fact it's going down d'Tube.Avoid.Eliminate from watch list.
cheers.
Even 'til Jaded.
Dig for the sake of it.
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ken
Member
Username: ken
Post Number: 496
Registered: 04-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, March 29, 2008 - 12:40 pm: |
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Found this, right on the topic.
http://www.safehaven.com/article-9810.htm
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dug
Member
Username: dug
Post Number: 3014
Registered: 07-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, March 30, 2008 - 10:22 am: |
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yes ken,right on topic.I especially liked the "Lure" bit about the upcoming supposed 8th leg with half the gains in the last third,available to those with courage.
It did give a lot of background general info too.Pity it all ended as a spiel to buy their Reports though.
"We've researched 300 juniors and have come up with a Dozen specials"
That'd be Global Listed shares,hey ken? I wonder if they have 2/3 per Region like some for the Yanks,some for Europeans with at least 1 for Oz?
Or is this tip sheet for Sophisticated Goers to wherever the Opportunity lies?The After Midnight mob still hawking over whatever Exchange is still open?
Yes after reading several Golders "Insights" and "Plans",one has to admit they seem to be a Special Breed.Some would say from another planet even.
But the link you provided ken didn't feature some of the Madness of Goldies.No Survivalist,Gun Toting,Backwooods Rant there.
Just a subtle spiel to sell newsletters and reports.I see mention of past reports.I wonder if this mob "safe havened" the pilgrims out of the DownLegs?
I don't hold ANY Gold shares yet.I'm not encouraging anyone who does hold some of these Juniors mentioned to Hang On to them.
As your article said,ken,most Juniors FAIL and they can do it still even though they say they have a Million Oz in the Ground.It seems it all depends on the economics of Gold Concentration in a limited Area.Is it economically Feasible to mine d'Stuff seems to be what it all boils down to.
I'm trying to find,by charting and subsidary facts,the Oz based shares that have ShareHolders Substantial who appear to Understand the Particular Company IS d'Real Deal.Share Price Maintained in the Current Panic seems a "righteous" criteria.
Surely such Companies exist?So I'm plodding and plotting to find them.
cheers.
Even 'til Jaded.
Dig for the sake of it.
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malfrey
Member
Username: malfrey
Post Number: 4
Registered: 02-2008Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, March 30, 2008 - 08:30 pm: |
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Hi,
I'm still reading the posts but do not have much more to offer other than to say regarding the pile driver that volatility is recognised as an exit point in other trading programs as an exit signal, some times on its own but also in conjunction with other signal such as ATRE.
I look forward to the results of "the search". You already have my results. As far as the techniques I use in assessing the trends, I just applied what Twiggs has listed in the help on Smoother Rate of Return, and Collin Twiggs Money Flow. These are very similar to another more costly program.
Cheers for now.
Malfrey.}
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malfrey
Member
Username: malfrey
Post Number: 9
Registered: 02-2008Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, April 10, 2008 - 08:26 pm: |
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I reviewed the suggested list IGR,MUN,HEG,CRE,PRU,NGF,MON,GRY,SAU,NAV,KAL,PRE. to see how they are tracking.
IRN climbing back to the last peak of end of March. (bought these see above post)
LST this may have peaked for the moment. (bought these see above post) See what develops from the threatened take over.
MON Smoothed rate of change going up but below EMA13 and Twiggs Money Flow down.
HEG holding sort of steady at the moment
NGF starting to move up in last 3 days. ?? Could this be a move?? But today close was down on opening.
The others mentioned in list .. going down-ish.
Interesting to watch with some commitment. in two.
Malfrey
(Do your own research, no recommendations given)
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morton
Member
Username: morton
Post Number: 97
Registered: 05-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, April 11, 2008 - 05:19 pm: |
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if you want a portfolio of gold, why not ASX:GOLD? A direct relationship to the gold price...
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dug
Member
Username: dug
Post Number: 3202
Registered: 07-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, May 31, 2008 - 01:12 pm: |
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Gold Shares from when this thread started [pretty much]
Gone a bit depressed.Along with the Gold Price but also all that Flight to GOLD/Be a Survivalist Jive just don't seem to have caught the imagination of the Fresh Meat Pilgrims.
Lot of dissapointed Holders out there in Gold Juniors,I reckon.No Money left,let alone Faith to Do d'Double Up.They'd even be Doubled Down to their Full Extent so No Buying Pressure coming from Holders.
We'll just have to Hang Out for Capitulation.
The Gold Sector is a Dud nix Salvation.
Happy Trading.
Even 'til Jaded.
Dig for the sake of it.
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malfrey
Member
Username: malfrey
Post Number: 17
Registered: 02-2008Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, June 01, 2008 - 06:21 pm: |
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One or two such as IGR may still have a surprise instore in the next 2 to 3 weeks.
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dug
Member
Username: dug
Post Number: 3333
Registered: 07-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, August 18, 2008 - 12:02 pm: |
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Saw in the Week Comp that tryhay was muttering about the Return of the Gold Sector to Brokers' Recommendations.It certainly needs some positive Input,the Gold Sector has been Incredibly Disappointing to the retail/punter/pilgrims.
Now tryhay is one of them,you know,d'Chart Tells All and any info on a sector is worth sweet FA BUT the Gold Sector has it's own bred Story that has been proved to be Wrong,Completely Irrelevant.
I refer to the nexus between Gold and Financial MeltDown/Credit Crisis.
Garn admit it,Chartos you really got sucked in by that "Wisdom" hey?
Also the waffle about Gold going to $1500/oz and further, got you all sweaty and into Gold Juniors with a Vengenance.right?
Fact is,it seems that a Gold Price over a Grand $$'s leads to cut back of demand for the stuff by the Jewellery Trade and more importantly by the ChinIndia Market.
It also gets related to the US$ currency fluctuations AND the Definite Cost Increases that do NOT fluctuate like the Gold Price does.
Fact is Gold is NOT Productive.It has No Useful Purpose so is not Needed at any price.
Anyway an updated comparative chart of Jnr's vs Lihir.I see no "contender",near producer that "gives me Fever!!".
Even 'til Jaded.
Dig for the sake of it.
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archer
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Username: archer
Post Number: 1916
Registered: 11-2002
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| | Monday, August 18, 2008 - 12:33 pm: |
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http://goldprice.org/silver-and-gold-prices/
http://goldmoney.com/en/commentary.php
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/Hyderabad/Gold_glitters_again_for_buyers/arti cleshow/3369855.cms
http://www.gata.org/node/6489
http://apmexdealer.blogspot.com/2008/08/silver-gold-shortage-announcement.html
http://www.vnanet.vn/Home/EN/tabid/119/itemid/263057/Default.aspx
Then go to ebay and look up 100 ounce silver bars
or 1 kilo silver bars
There is a huge premium now for real silver
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dug
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Username: dug
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Registered: 07-2005Rating: N/A
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| | Monday, August 18, 2008 - 01:31 pm: |
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How about some summary in your own words,Archer?
I'm real tired of reading gun toting survivalist Gush about Gold Glories.
Or are you talking Physical Hold vs Jnr Gunner Be Gold Producers with this mention of Silver?
Silver's Useful.Even you,Archer told us all years ago about Silver Threads for Army Underpants in Iraq.They don't need Golden Needles to sew 'em do they?
Any Gold Jnr's of interest to you,Archer?
regards.
Even 'til Jaded.
Dig for the sake of it.
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archer
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Username: archer
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| | Monday, August 18, 2008 - 01:54 pm: |
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Why would it sound different if i summarised it myself
There was no gun toting gold gush in any of those articles
you sound a little mixed up dug
Any Gold Jnr's of interest to you,Archer?
technically in a word NO
I go thru many related charts weekly and they are showing
nothing positive yet
NCM looks the strongest of the bigs
and PRU in the emer.producers
and as for the tinyies there is nothing liquid at the moment so they are of the radar for the time being
Id love to see 3 or 4 more hard down days in the goldies
and that might give me a signal but absent an exhaustion like that gold might be in a bear or sideways pattern for a year to 18 months
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archer
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Username: archer
Post Number: 1918
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| | Monday, August 18, 2008 - 02:08 pm: |
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Or are you talking Physical Hold vs Jnr Gunner Be Gold Producers with this mention of Silver?
It gotta be a good time to buy when you can sell kilo bars
for over 600 then buy for just over 500
2-3 months or more for delivery though
http://www.ausbullion.com.au/liveprices.html
Dont you see something wrong with this picture
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dug
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Username: dug
Post Number: 3336
Registered: 07-2005Rating: N/A
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| | Monday, August 18, 2008 - 02:50 pm: |
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don't "mix" me up with Silver Speculation.
Obviously I didn't run thru your Links.I'm trying to save BroadBand Width as an economy drive.I"ll have you know,Archer I've never NEVER Not Once watched a Utube.Tragic,hey?
I prefer "in your own words summary of "stuff" " posts.As long as they're not the Same Words/Views expressed Ad Nauseum week/month Bleeding Year in 'n'Out.
I've read a Lot of Gold Related Cut'n'Pastes.
They seem to revole around-
Gold is the ULTIMATE Store of Wealth;
Chinese and the Whole Asian Sub Continent LOVE Gold.
POG is/has/gunner soon RISE To Giddy Heights.
[POG=Price of Gold,neophytes]
Gold Reserves Announced by this that and d'Other can/should be calculated as Market Capping XYZ at $Abillion etc blather bluster.
You read some of this I'm talking bout,Archer?
Well,don't it go too that the US citizens are going to Demand Gold thru the StratoSphere Price wise?
Anyway,seems it's all boiling down to Who/Which Company is going to be Taken Over?
I had hopes that SBM,St Barbara may enter this fray.Didn't Buy any SBM thank heavens but SBM is a pilgrim's illustration of what can happen when Companies Actually are PROducing.
Heard that one Archer?
Nothing like putting a Pick in the Ground
to Ruin a Good Explorers Tale.
cheers.
Even 'til Jaded.
Dig for the sake of it.
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archer
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Username: archer
Post Number: 1919
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| | Monday, August 18, 2008 - 03:21 pm: |
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The links show that gold and silver is being bought in such quantities on this plunge that dealers are running out of stock and the cash prices are going to high premiums
In countries with high inflation such as India and vietnam
the buying is described as frenzied and chaotic
The U.S mint which started rationing sales of its silver
eagles a few months ago after HUGE demand has now just cancelled them entirely for the rest of the year at least
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tryhay
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Username: tryhay
Post Number: 1131
Registered: 09-2005
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| | Monday, August 18, 2008 - 10:40 pm: |
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Hello Dug
dug wrote on Monday, August 18, 2008 - 12:02 pm:I refer to the nexus between Gold and Financial MeltDown/Credit Crisis.
I'm not so sure there is a nexus as you propose (like strawberrys & cream) ~ the recent drop in gold price (chart below) suggests some heavy duty short selling IMO, supported by the "off" season for gold sales (and perhaps the big boys creaming some factory fodder $$) but we are coming back into the "on" season for india and china to top up their reserves (generally happens in september) ~ so I guess the chart will turn around one day soon (but I will be surprised if this month sees the gold price rocketing up if the brokers are plugging it as we speak). Archer's comments suggest another possible scenario occurring (or a combination of all three factors).
I note your "comparative chart of gold diggers" looks poor vertually since november 2007 ~ must not be far to go till the bottom eh? As you suggest dug I do find it better to respond to the chart girations then depend on some FA peddled by the vested interest and trust it (the FA ~ even if the share price does the opposite to expected as a result of the reported "news" (as is so often the case ~ come in sucker on the popular culture)..
Daily chart: One might think if there was a direct connection between sub prime & the gold price that the gold chart would have shown no price rise in december to march and a drop rather than slide sideways till it fell out of bed earlier this month .... This chart is not very attractive (price action under the 200 d MA and the 50 day MA dropping like a stone ~ looks like so many other charts it is not funny)
Will be interesting if oil decides to rally powerfully from ~$110, for gold and the markets more generally IMO
Hasn't WESTERN AREAS NL had a good run until recent ~ so there are shares out there if you can find them (CC suggested PNA recently & I note the reverse in trend!)...
(Message edited by tryhay on August 18, 2008)
Happy trading DYOR
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archer
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| | Friday, August 22, 2008 - 03:07 pm: |
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When gold starts disappearing ?????
When gold starts being hoarded ????
When the cash price is higher ????
than the futures price (Backwardation) ????
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As gold prices tumbled from their highest level ever, investors and collectors loaded up on one-ounce "American eagle" gold-bullion coins. The buying spree came to an abrupt halt this week after the U.S. Mint stopped selling the coins for the first time since production began 20 years ago.
"Due to the unprecedented demand...our inventories have been depleted," the Mint -- part of the U.S. Treasury Department -- told its dealers Friday. "We are therefore temporarily suspending all sales of these coins."
The move shocked sellers and collectors of the coins, which are the most widely traded in the U.S. Suppliers ...
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121928079980258833.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
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