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     dug
Member
Username: dug
Post Number: 2995
Registered: 07-2005
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Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, March 26, 2008 - 10:55 am: |  
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Using Lihir LGL as a benchmark responder to the Gold Price,I'm trying to "get a handle" on the recent declines in price of several Junior Gold Miners who have Reserves and some plans for production "soon".
There's a theory running round of some "conspiracy" to downramp Junior Gold Miners.Proponents are perplexed by the Rising Gold Price yet the determined share price fall.Dark Forces are at work,They say.HOLD they admonish even though recently Gold Juniors are going down the Hole.
Anyway a Comparative Chart.
Now I have "difficulties" interpreting this chart and any critique by anyone else is welcome but as I see it-
The Break by most all the Juniors occurred in the Mid Jan Feb period.That is the price comparative to LGL separated "dramatically" at that time.
PRE being the Lowest Price[2/5cents] as well as doing gold as a "sideline" is the most "speculative" of the Group and it is no surprise it [PRE]has performed worst.
Other shares have only been captioned so as to differentiate their colours which are programmed pretty close together.
IGR Integra is performing the Best.
Now are there any other shares preferably Emerging Going to be Producers that should be included in this exercise?
For example I don't think SBM qualifies and it'd be better if the Comparison was Not with the Price of Lihir but the Gold Price.
There are several reasons also why the Gold Price Rise is not affecting Non Producers Positively ie Currency and Increasing Costs factors.Any others?
Personally I think too much has been made of the 1980's Financial Crisis that led to a Boom in Junior Gold Miners is going to repeat again in Modern Times but that's just my ratbag,unprovable non researched view.
Anyone out there in or stuck,staying staunch by Junior Gold Miners want to tell me about it?
Happy trading.
Even 'til Jaded.
Dig for the sake of it.
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dug
Member
Username: dug
Post Number: 2996
Registered: 07-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, March 26, 2008 - 12:37 pm: |
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Found some more Companies and set up a criteria sort of.
Adding CRE,GRY,MUN.
These shares,All of them,are priced under a $1.
They also pretty much have a $200 mil Market Cap difference between the Top [IGR ~ $213 mil] and the Bottom [KAL ~$12 mil].
Some of the List of Ten Shares are Producing already but in very small amounts so I reckon they are still useful for Comparisons.
The List in Order of Market Capitalisation is-
IGR;CRE;PRU;MUN;NGF;HEG;NAV;GRY;PRE;KAL.
Any Others? If so,I'd prefer to keep to Ten Shares and cull on the Basis of Companies NOT mining,exploring for Gold in Australia being eliminated.
I don't go for Sovereign Risk,I'm Zen-ophobic like that.
cheers.
Even 'til Jaded.
Dig for the sake of it.
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dug
Member
Username: dug
Post Number: 2997
Registered: 07-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, March 26, 2008 - 01:38 pm: |
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Because of Xenophobia I reckon the comparison should be moved from LGL [Lihir] to SBM [St Barbara].I think SBM is the aspirational Goal of All these Juniors compared to Lihir.So I'll change the Comparison Chart cos,well,I just feel like it.
A Comparison of the Ten in Shares on Issue breaks them into 2 Groups.
TOP 5Shares on Issue in order are-
PRE;CRE;IGR;NGF;HEG.
These run approx Billion On Issue to 240 mil on Issue.
Running Next 160 mil to least 120mil Shares Issued is
PRU;NAV;KAL;MUN;GRY.
There's really not much between these last 5 in Difference in Number of Shares on Issue Percentage-wise.
Then again there is only a "Fine Point" to Comparing Shares on Issue in the first place but I just use it to sort/categorise/differentiate for comparing Market Cap between these 10 to find which ones have d'Money flowing into them more than any others.I assume that IF a share is Thrashing it's Equals,it might/MUST be a Better GO!
more later.
Even 'til Jaded.
Dig for the sake of it.
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malfrey
Member
Username: malfrey
Post Number: 1
Registered: 02-2008Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, March 26, 2008 - 09:29 pm: |
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Hello, Suggest you may add SAU to your list. IGR interesting one to watch.
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dug
Member
Username: dug
Post Number: 2999
Registered: 07-2005
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| | Thursday, March 27, 2008 - 09:29 am: |
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greetings malfrey,
added SAU along with MON.It's quite difficult doing the comparison chart with 12 entries so I'm going to break the Group up.
I have this list as First to Last in price comparison movement to Lihir.
IGR,MUN,HEG,CRE,PRU,NGF,MON,GRY,SAU,NAV,KAL,PRE.
Breaking Above the 150DEMA are IGR,MUN,HEG,MON with NGF just under.
So below the 150 are CRE,GRY,SAU,PRE.KAL,NAV.These are not yet in any order of DownTrend etc.I'll try and do something on that soon.
I noted that SAU had a good candle yesterday.
but malfrey have you any thoughts on Why these Junior Golders are mostly all "off d'boil" considering all the talk about rising Gold Prices,Gold as the safe harbour in these troubled Financial Times?
BTW filling out your profile of All Details incl address and phone number can get you off time delay quicker.
cheers.
Even 'til Jaded.
Dig for the sake of it.
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coyotte
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Username: coyotte
Post Number: 545
Registered: 12-2002
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| | Thursday, March 27, 2008 - 09:38 am: |
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probably wrong here Dug .
but was under the impression that the Jnrs moved in the FINAL Leg UP . --- actually more of a warning that the run was in it's final move up,
The "Sea of Uncertainty" is defeated by the nimble vessel "Probability", not the unwieldy vessel "Prediction".
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dug
Member
Username: dug
Post Number: 3000
Registered: 07-2005
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| | Thursday, March 27, 2008 - 09:56 am: |
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was just thinking your point,coyotte.
I was wondering if Gold Juniors attract a lot of Margin Call players,spiv speculator types more than other sectors?
Saw a PileDriver January in one of the charts,forget which now but will keep my eye out for these in all the charts.
Do you agree that Gold jnrs have a propensity to draw the green and brown[new&old]get rich quickers?
Even 'til Jaded.
Dig for the sake of it.
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dug
Member
Username: dug
Post Number: 3001
Registered: 07-2005
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| | Thursday, March 27, 2008 - 10:17 am: |
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coyotte told me/us about this Candle called the PileDriver.Our very own Darryl Guppy "devised" it.It seems to be defined as being a Wide Ranging Day DOWN that comes back BUT then in the following weeks price goes down to the Pile Driver's Lowest Point and usually even lower.
Coyotte can you tell us some more about it?
Now the 22nd of January was PileDriver Day all over most charts.Note how it "completed",gave a Good Indication with GRY but was passed over in application with IGR.
Even 'til Jaded.
Dig for the sake of it.
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stun
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Username: stun
Post Number: 108
Registered: 03-2004
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| | Thursday, March 27, 2008 - 03:26 pm: |
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Hi Dug,
Have not heard of that candle described as a piledriver.
Dr Elder described it as a kangaroo tail, generally signalling a reversal of a downtrend. It is a wide ranging candle down where the close was near to the open. My interpretation of it was the exact opposite of a blowoff top.
In the case of GRY, there was no real downtrend prior to it, so I would not regard it as a true example, even less so when we remember what happened that day!!
IGR may be better pictured as a double bottom, a much more strong signal of reversal.
‘There is a time to be long, a time to be short, and a time to go fishing.’
... Jesse Livemore
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malfrey
Member
Username: malfrey
Post Number: 2
Registered: 02-2008Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, March 27, 2008 - 08:25 pm: |
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Hi Stun & Dug,
In answer to the question: "Why these Junior Golders are mostly all "off d'boil" considering all the talk about rising Gold Prices,Gold as the safe harbour in these troubled Financial Times?"
The juniors that are not producing are viewed as a much greater risk. They have no income and are usually trying to get their exploration done with the capital obtained by share raising. So if the market goes down what hard assets do they have? Hmm not much. They usually also require a good capital injection when it comes time to set up the actual mining operation. If the share price is down then more shares are required to obtain the necessary funding and so the returns per share will also be down. Resulting in investors staying away in down times because they do not see the future value especially when it may be required to be shared by many others. So there is a bit of a spiral downwards.
But when companies like IGR who are not producers have been consitantly and methodically doing their prospecting and keeping the market imformed of the results, which are evaluated as good, with the prospect of more rusults to come the market keeps the positive sentiment as the market has seen from the past that the sp has gone up when good results are released. Trust in the management is another factor.
In times like these where every one has the jitters and capital is getting harder to find because of the credit crunch the traders move out because they do not want to get caught with holding the shares over night or over week-ends because the AUX follows the US market like a slave at the moment. See chart.
Juniors at the moment will go up if there is a take ove in the happening. See Lion (LST)
Thanks for letting me ramble.
Malfrey
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malfrey
Member
Username: malfrey
Post Number: 3
Registered: 02-2008Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, March 27, 2008 - 08:45 pm: |
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Dug & Stan,
I have run your suggestions through my graphing technique and the ones that stand out imho, are IGR, LST, MON, SAU, GRY. The others I would not look at right now. No definite trends to follow. I attach the IGR so you can see the graph technique I have just learnt to use.
Malfrey
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dug
Member
Username: dug
Post Number: 3003
Registered: 07-2005
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| | Friday, March 28, 2008 - 09:24 am: |
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stun wrote on Thursday, March 27, 2008 - 04:26 pm:Have not heard of that candle described as a piledriver.
Dr Elder described it as a kangaroo tail, generally signalling a reversal of a downtrend
greetings stun,
Despite chat rooms having a dreadful reputation for being filled with rubbish misleading infomation,they or at least this one sometimes come up with information that is Dynamic,not yet written about in books by Yank 'experts".
So your Dr Elder was describing what is known also as Stop Loss Raids,right?Where a share in a DownTrend suddenly has a wide ranging day Down only to recover after some "BigBoy" has shaken out auto stops or alternatively a Morning Star Candle signifies a Reversal.Haven't read Elder myself,stun just got d'Gist from this Forum.
Now,stun,Darryl Guppy in Australia has identified this type of Candle,he calls the PileDriver which has an Opposite Interpretation,as far as I know, that a Candle as illustrated CAN/May/Could show the bottom level of subsequent WEEKS action.Not a Reversal of Downtrend but a Sign of where a share could CONTINUE to reach DOWN.
I've illustrated it in Long Term with a Chart of CFU showing the PileDriver in AUGUST 07,during a DownTrend signifying the bottom level that CFU in the following weeks reached and exceeded.
I'm going to look further into this New Pattern Indicator because it is the Opposite of Common Wisdom ie Kangaroo Tails and look forward to any further contribution you ca | |
