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captain_chaza

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Monday, April 07, 2008 - 03:41 pm:

Mayday! Mayday! Mayday!

I need to hoist a coal class of sail in the very short term
IE: ASAP

Anybody got any good ideas?

Salute and Gods' speed

"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.

"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate."
Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893

"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897

hibikijoji

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Monday, April 07, 2008 - 04:42 pm:

Hi cap,

Have you considered MCC?

Disclaimer :
The views expressed here are for experimental practices only. They have not been independently verified. No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.

Please consult your broker or financial adviser before making an investment decision.

jimmyswell

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Monday, April 07, 2008 - 05:49 pm:

Ahoy Capt,

I've been updating a thread CZA Coal of Africa, which fits your coal request. It's been doing a predictable 2-weekly retrace-climb cycle over the past few months. It closed at $2.13 last Friday and is on its way back up, closing at $2.20 today. I reckon it's good for a tidy 5% climb up to $2.30-ish providing it remains true to form.

The other coal stock I've been tracking that seems on its way back up to 70c is COK Cockatoo Coal.

I don't hold either of these at present - so can't be accused of ramping.

jimmyswell

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Thursday, April 10, 2008 - 06:30 pm:

Ahoy ahoy Cap'n,

What did you end up buying coal-wise?

You were clearly onto a hot sub-sector because my recommendations of CZA closed at $2.31 and COK closed at 77c today (Thu).

On a separate short term thread, at which you may have glanced, the coal-related equity BLK has also seen some upward action this week.

captain_chaza

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Thursday, April 10, 2008 - 08:06 pm:

Ahoy Swell Sea-Cadet-Ofificer Jimmy

I ended up doing "Nothing"! and I can promise you ONE THING

"Heads are going to roll!"

Salute and Gods' speed

azworkinit

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Thursday, May 22, 2008 - 09:17 pm:

Ahoy! the Cap. Ave ye still dun nuttin me arty?. Regards Az

"Success is a lousy teacher.It seduces people into thinking they cannot lose."BILL GATES.

azworkinit

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Thursday, May 22, 2008 - 11:12 pm:

By the way Cap,heres one I would appreciate an opinion on.Looks to have slowed today.Took 50% profit,though I was hesitant.Do you think it will retrace to fill the recent gap established on the uptrend?. Would appreciate any comments. Regards Az.

"Success is a lousy teacher.It seduces people into thinking they cannot lose."BILL GATES.

hibikijoji

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Friday, May 23, 2008 - 09:04 am:

Chaza,

MCC up 34% since last post.

Hope you invested...?

azworkinit

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Friday, May 23, 2008 - 08:06 pm:

Anyone care to help with some technical analysis?.Bought back in at 67.5 today. I can hear the crickets chirping?.Regards Az.

"Success is a lousy teacher.It seduces people into thinking they cannot lose."BILL GATES.

paddy

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Saturday, May 24, 2008 - 01:49 pm:

azworkinit : I'm no expert on chart interpretation but I'll give it a go and if it is not correct I'm sure it will be by other participants .

Date Stock price Action Interpretation

5/20 GAP* UP volume close to doubled - Go long

5/21 GAP* UP volume close to double Go long

5/22 Bearish Harami, slight decrease
in volume - needs confirmation

5/23 GAP UP - no significant increase in
volume
-
GAP* Breakaway Gaps

RSI[20] 91.129 : Overbought

Slow Stochastic %K[14] 93.028 %D[3] 96.442 : Overbought with %K below %D [ bearish] but K and D have been playing crossover so not definite .

If I had your position I'd Hold with a tight stop loss say @ $.74 .

Now I'll wait and see what the experienced lads have top say.

Paddy

azworkinit

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Saturday, May 24, 2008 - 09:44 pm:

Thankyou Paddy, I appreciate your views,and Im sure there are no absolute,"written in stone" analysis techniques out there. This stock only listed a few months back,with 45 million floated at 20c.Apparently about three quarters of that are estimated held by the top 5 holders,so any buying has been competitive in the last few days. Hopefully the run may continue on Monday,though it's risen a little quickly for my liking. How is sunny Mexico?.Some mates of mine are going there in a couple of months.Have you been working a minesite over there?. Regards Az.

"Success is a lousy teacher.It seduces people into thinking they cannot lose."BILL GATES.

azworkinit

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Monday, May 26, 2008 - 01:39 pm:

TRADING HALT!.Apparently no one heard about the impending announcement and the desperate trading on friday avo was because of oil prices dragging coal in general upwards!. I hope theyve got something good,cause I loaded up.

"Success is a lousy teacher.It seduces people into thinking they cannot lose."BILL GATES.

dug

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Monday, May 26, 2008 - 01:58 pm:

They give a reason these days for Trading Halts.
See Page Two[2].
This one is for "possible coal exploration tenement acquisition".Don't sound too "sexy" to me.
What you could do,azwork is some checking up on how much Cash in d'Bank TCM has.
I see it recently floated so does it have some Cash to pay for this "acquisition" or will it have to do a Placement at this early stage to "Sophisticated" investors?

One hopes NOT the latter but any announcement that lifts the Halt saying they just may need more Money for Wonderful Potential Exploration will be a "Bummer".
Also what TYPE of Coal may have relevance.Wikipedia bleeding coal and get the definitions of what's "desirable".

Have Fun on Halt Lift Day.It can be before Wednesday,even this arvo.
cheers.

Even 'til Jaded.

Dig for the sake of it.

azworkinit

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Wednesday, July 02, 2008 - 05:46 pm:

Hello Dug, This was my shining light on an otherwise difficult day.It didn't quite fill that gap,though the volume was a little better.The only green on my screen!.Any thoughts. Oh, the job at Tallerang came up, start ASAP, waiting for my police clearance.Regards Az.

"Success is a lousy teacher.It seduces people into thinking they cannot lose."BILL GATES.

dug

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Friday, July 04, 2008 - 12:17 pm:

Tiaro is digging round inland from me it seems,but I can find no local knowledge about it,azwork.
Main Problem IF they start production would be the Port of Gladstone.Gladstone is highly industrialised.has been for decades but recently some danged southerners doing the coastal real estate creep have hit the town with Clean Up the Coal Dust whinges.Mainly because they bought the sea side properties overlooking the Bleeding Coal Terminal so if they can close down the Terminal then VOILA Windfall Profits to "canny" them!!

You got that in Geralton yet azwork?Concerned Citizen Committees bleating on about their kiddies asthma,seeking Compensation from a Town for being how it's always been?

Geez there's Lead in Mt Isa and Lead ain't good.Wahhh Whinge Please Send d'Cheque I didn't know not to bring my Kiddies here,Nah Nah you didn't tell me to make sure my kiddie didn't eat Dirt so you gotta pay!!

Anyway,is the police check for MGX or the other one,azwork?

cheers.

Even 'til Jaded.

Dig for the sake of it.

sway

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Friday, July 04, 2008 - 12:52 pm:

dug
Greetings from Gladstone. Just to correct a few points:

- The main people complaining about the coal dust have bee here for 20+ years that I know of, not recent blowins.

- There is zero chance of closing down the port. In fact have a Google for Gladstone Ports Corporation Wiggins Island terminal and you will see that they are building a new 80million t/yr terminal a few km north of town which will eventually allow them to shift some or all of the coal handling out of the main affected area (Barney Pt). That still leaves the 50odd million tonne/yr RGTanna Clinton terminal which is not causing too much dust for residents (except those who live on boats in the marina). There is talk of moving the marina to "solve" that problem.

Cheers
Sway

This is not a recommendation or advice. As they say .... DYOR.

dug

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Friday, July 04, 2008 - 02:35 pm:

well,if they been there for 20bleeding years and are still complaining?then they must have read too many southern books and newspapers!!
In Bundaberg,they whack false letters to d'Editor in complaining about the Refinery Smoke justso all this righteous indignation can flow from the "natives" and rum drunks against perfidious southerners even from Brizzie!!

Off to burn some grass clippings.
[in me incinerator,cc!!]

cheers.

ps-hanging out for ya wein in a stein rabbit.hoping to be swayed!

Even 'til Jaded.

Dig for the sake of it.

sway

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Friday, July 04, 2008 - 03:21 pm:

Haven't forgotten the Weinstein rave. Should have time tomorrow seeing there's not much footy on. Proper footy that is. Don't like these split rounds

Cheers
Sway

This is not a recommendation or advice. As they say .... DYOR.

azworkinit

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Sunday, July 06, 2008 - 10:50 pm:

Hello Dug,writing from my "new donga at MGX".First day tomorrow,They even have LAN connect to the rooms,and ensuites to boot!.Things sure have improved in the land of mine camps since about 10 years ago.Lucky I brought the laptop!.Dust is some problem at Gero port,though not as much as could be coming after a prolonged export stint.Oakajee should alleviate some of that over the coming years.Albany down south had a problem recently with lead contamination in water tanks,gutters and some kiddies,and the EPA shut down the lead export for good!.Now they export from PERTH!,in bags to stop the dust.Must think there's less people to poison in Perth?.Oxiana got checked right out in Gero just after,as they export lead from the port.Always wondered why I was a bit slow on the uptake!.I notice from some recent tenement charts from state gov that theres a lot of rail lines in the area leading to and through TCMs holdings.Another company just announced some good results in between a couple of TCMs tenements as well,so hopefully TCM can kick back from the pasting they got on thursday.They came back pretty well friday.By the way,SWAY,the IO dust is already causing the crayfishermen here a major headache on thier 500k vessels,so could sympathise with the yachties a bit.The hardstand is about 2-300metres from the main loading berth.Anyhow,of to bed for the early start,Regards Az.

"Success is a lousy teacher.It seduces people into thinking they cannot lose."BILL GATES.

dug

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Thursday, July 10, 2008 - 02:27 pm:

azworkinit,
IC you're in strife with some stockbroker "trainee" over at the BarBque Warm Pig.tut,tut flaming d'barbie is just heinious,hey?Suppose it's because ya off duty in ya donga with nutting better to do.

So let's talk TCM.Only floated for four months and has already run thru 4 of Weinstein's stages.[sway is a weinstein devotee,azwok so that's why I used d'jargon]

So azwork,I want to become interested in TCM cos it's just outside my Back Door that's it's digging around and,like you,I like to Support Local Businesses.
So what do you reckon?What's the TCM word other than bluster about Feeling Wind on ya Cheeks?
Looking at it's Chart,I see possibilities.
To save me having to read up on the danged thing,what's d'Word,azwok?
Why is it GOING so?and will it do it again?

cheers.

Even 'til Jaded.

Dig for the sake of it.

azworkinit

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Wednesday, July 16, 2008 - 09:54 pm:

Hello Dug,home for my week off.For some reason the u beaut LAN at camp shows the latest posts but not the message,so I knew you replied but couldn't see what u wrote.I think the first big uptrend on TCM happened on sentiment that an o/seas player was buying up mcarthur coal at the time and any coal play was a good one.I originally looked into TCM when it before it floated as coal is integral to processing IO,and the asians want plenty.When I looked at it again it was moving through 40c and I noticed some volume.The next day it took off.As you saw in the BBQ some bloke held and isn't so happy.A case of mistaken identity,as he thinks Im some guy called "promoter",who always says "have patience".Anyhow I bought in again on the way down and it would have to almost double for me to make profit again.I also bought some at the lower point as to hopefully achieve what you are trying to do with DYE,and minimise loss sooner.Anyhow it doesn't drop much lower than it has lately,(one hopes)and when she kicks I might just get out and buy a nice charter boat for the abrolhos islands.That is if bloody GBG hasn't destroyed me first!.Regards Az.

"Success is a lousy teacher.It seduces people into thinking they cannot lose."BILL GATES.

dug

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Thursday, July 17, 2008 - 02:57 pm:

digging has found azwork
a]DMA,HRS,HGL are "related" to TCM.They're in on the same "Deal" which is Greenfield Development inside from Bundyish.No one's Found Coal in this vicinity.TCM is digging "Virgin Ground" and all those named companies are "inONit".

b]GreenFields hold ultimate Potential.That's why TCM rabbits about finding the Grail of Coal,Whatever it's called!!as well as tacking in supply potential of better than brown,stinking legite to Tarong Power Stations that are just up d'Road.
Coal ain't Coal.There's Desirable as well as Useless.

c] I agree it went on a Rush chiefly MCC related BUT it also has very few shares on issue and has not qualified Float Holders for the year Cap Gain rebate.

d]It's hard to Buy.Look at the Depth and wait for some Stop Loss Hitter to give up d'Plot.Unless you have Faith and are willing to jump the Spread and meet the ASK.
Either way you can't buy too many.
Hard to get even 5grand$/15000#.
Orders of that size currently require jumping the Bid/Ask gap,then running up a few Asks as well,to be filled.
vice versy for SLosers.

Now the Chart is quite young.All sorts of Levels present.
If TCM goes back to 38ish and Then goes back past 50 there?
well,azwok that's a Double Bottom targeting about 167.

So have you d'Nerve to hold to sub 40?
DON"T BUY MORE just Hold.

Then either Anticipation of UpComing +Drill Results or actual news may get you thru having done
d'Dreaded Double Down.[d'DDD]

Azworkinit.Why you made the buy in again at 80 cents?
After successfully trapping a Main Move in a New Floater,4mth old TCM.?

azwok,you should work on your buying triggers and leave d'DDD alone.

cheers.

Even 'til Jaded.

Dig for the sake of it.

azworkinit

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Monday, July 21, 2008 - 11:32 am:

Hi Dug,why I buy in at .80?. well 75 actually,and yeh I know I need to be patient when buying.The same goes for GBG where I set the buy at 1.10,and then grew impatient and bought when I thought it had stabilised,early.It's all in the learning curve, and boy am I learning.I have just started to see that you don't need to be in something all the time to make money,just in something at the right price.As you said,there aren't a lot of TCM available at any given time, as is the case today with buyers way outnumbering sellers.I've got 30000 at various prices and hope they give me reason to celebrate sooner rather than later.Anyhow,am nearing the end of my week off and back out on wednesday morning.10 oclock start, as the company allows travel on their time,in and out.By the way,a lot of the guys have 50000 options etc,some recently at 2.99approx.They arent so happy lately, and she might even visit 2.10,waddya reckon.(mgx).Regards Az.

"Success is a lousy teacher.It seduces people into thinking they cannot lose."BILL GATES.

dug

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Monday, July 21, 2008 - 12:09 pm:

TCM- market may be a bit "distracted" by this Waratah mob and their Big Ambition to Open a Port in Shoalhaven Bay.

TCM is NOT going to be able to rail thru the New Bundaberg Port.At least for a decade+.
RailLines currently have 3 "inner" city crossings operating on Boom Gates.Traffic is not going to take waiting for Coal Trains to go thru.Only happens about 3 times a day at present and it is very Unlikely State Government will expend to give Traffic Flyovers for Coal Trains.

MGX- I see 2 channels formed with price action falling currently onto the Base 135ish.There's an "extreme" $2 neat possibility too.

There's often UP price action when Miners are Discovering but there is a Tendency to Dullness once they start actually producing.Also ASX 100 stocks are analysed to the nth degree.It seems that some 5% off target can do the price 20/30%.
but azuworkin there can you confirm the MGX Trucks by road-train to it's Port?

let's hope these and GBG are in "d'Black" by the time of your next roster off.
cheers.

Even 'til Jaded.

Dig for the sake of it.

azworkinit

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Monday, July 21, 2008 - 09:19 pm:

They truck 70kms to rail siding at Mullewa,then rail to port some 100kms.MMX truck all the way some 6-700 kms I believe. MMX have to organise rail ASAP and have been advised by GOVT and given extensions on deadlines already.Midwest use rail, and GBG will truck then rail.Obviously no rail is viable until Oakajee starts.Regards Az.

"Success is a lousy teacher.It seduces people into thinking they cannot lose."BILL GATES.

lucky_phil

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Thursday, October 09, 2008 - 07:58 pm:

Coal stocks have certainly had a black week!

Surely the demand for steaming coal depends on the number of boiler type power stations and these can't be shut down or started up at the drop of a hat and the Chinese are still constructing them as fast as possible. Might be worth watching for a decent bounce.

paddy

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Friday, October 10, 2008 - 04:48 am:

Lucky Phil : Coal stocks have been hit just like the Baltic Dry Index which reflects the transport of materials like iron ore , coal and bauxite in the Capesize vessels [ .100,000 DWT - 300,000 DWT ].

The Stowe Global Coal Index has a profile similar to the BDI . In June it was at 8135 and today is at 2795 . Says something about coal demand I do believe. Here is one year chart:

-------------

rockon

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Friday, October 10, 2008 - 06:12 am:

Maybe one of the first sectors to rebound when the time comes?

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24472567-643,00.html

ohkoolnutz

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Friday, October 10, 2008 - 07:36 am:

I still see people who don't get it.

There won't be a rebound! It's like a reboot on your computer. The entire asset-based system is being reset to zero to start all over again for another round of game play. Every continent gets equal chances to be the powerhouse of the next century.

This is the big one. When have you seen the demise of the global financial system combined with debt-to-income ratios greater 150% in the last 100 years? It never happened. The Great Depression after 1929 was a piece of cake compared to the problems we have gotten ourselves into this time. This is a depression and it will last 20 years...if we are lucky.

Our concern at this point should not be the stock or housing market. We have already lost that fight. Can we uphold law and order?

---
ohk

Lies, Damn Lies and Technical Analysis

ken

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Friday, October 10, 2008 - 11:31 am:

Hi ohkoolnutz,

Even between 1930 and 1932 there were 7 rallies that averaged 40 days and 28% rise.

Ken

lucky_phil

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Friday, October 10, 2008 - 07:56 pm:

Hi Paddy,

Thanks for the chart - that deserves an OUCH! I haven't come across those indexes you mentioned so will look them up. Yesterday a supply contract (don't know the volume) was signed in Japan at $165 per tonne for steaming coal. There are more than 20 bulk carriers off Newcastle (the que has been there for over a year now and is not getting any shorter). All that suggests to me that demand for steaming coal remains stronger than the charts suggest, although that may change. But given its pivotal role in electricity generation, lack of substitute fuels, growth in generating capacity and limitations on supply side responses to excess demand I think demand will continue to be robust even though some reductions in volumes and prices may occur. Time, as always, will tell I know that much for sure.

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lucky_phil

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Friday, October 10, 2008 - 08:05 pm:

Hi Ohkoolnutz,

I don't necessarily disagree with your analysis of the macro position but I think that the market will sell off well beyond the levels justified by the potential downturn (are we there yet?) and that will be cause for a bounce - the economy is another matter and you are probably correct. Unless the pollies can get some form of a coordinated response at their weekend meeting in New York.

Hmmm a room full of politicians reaching agreement on one course of action - na we're &67*&*$%!

Phil

Whoa you know you can't spend what you ain't got,
you can't lose what you ain't never had - McKinley Morganfield