| Author |
Message |
     dug
Member
Username: dug
Post Number: 3064
Registered: 07-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
|
| | Friday, April 25, 2008 - 01:53 pm: |  
|
Illustration of what shares to give d'Chop to in Watchlist Formation.
This is quite a popular share,from memory but it's a dog now by chart glimpse.It may be bottoming,doing a Weinstein Stage One but I'm sure not thinking of buying it.
In the Short Term one just has to notice the Recent Gap formed an Island Cluster and this most probably is about to drop/retrace back below 80 real soon.
Can you buy this CFD'd?How about Shorting it?
Probably and that's just one more reason I'm not interested in GBG.
but DYOR,Feel Free to Disagree.
Even 'til Jaded.
Dig for the sake of it.
|
azworkinit
Member
Username: azworkinit
Post Number: 7
Registered: 02-2008Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
|
| | Saturday, May 03, 2008 - 10:57 am: |
|
Crikey,Dug! This dog's a barkin. Thanks for the analysis, I appreciate your point of view. Do you think it's gonna wag it's tail for much longer?. How can I work out whats been bought and where people will start profit taking?.I feel a lot of these will be held at above the current price?.Regards Az.
Incredible
Charts
now with US Data
- AMEX, NASDAQ and NYSE data
- OTC BB and Pink Sheet stocks
- more than 500 market and sector indices
|
|
|
|
"Success is a lousy teacher.It seduces people into thinking they cannot lose."BILL GATES.
|
dug
Member
Username: dug
Post Number: 3084
Registered: 07-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
|
| | Saturday, May 03, 2008 - 11:38 am: |
|
Greetings again Az.
In today's Courier Business Pages there's a bit of a blurb on the Iron ore Jnrs taking off late this week.It seems to indicate the "Boys" are onto this sector again.
Under TA and Weinstein a Downtrend is indicated as Broken MAYBE when the share trades above the 150/200 day Moving Average.Have you downloaded the Free IC Chart Pack yet,az?
You can see from my earlier in the week chart above that GBG has gone above this MA Friday.Theory is that it will retrace to the MA that's about 105ish from memory.
Now I also checked this site-
www.asx.com.au/data/shortsell.txt
This provides the Official Short Positions by the ASX.It shows that as of May 1st 1.6 million GBG shares were Short.
Now,these could be an explantion of some of Friday's Volume either Opening or Closing Short Positions.Are you,az into CFD's?I'm not but I would think GBG can be CFD'ed.I reckon CFD's shaft the Righteous Pilgrim who don't borrow to play Shares.I think that the Leveraged higher percent gain from cfd's stiffles a Run.Brings out Sellers etc but that's just my bug bear.
Anyway,there's no method I know that can definitely answer your question
azworkinit wrote on Saturday, May 03, 2008 - 09:57 am:How can I work out whats been bought and where people will start profit taking?
other than Depth Watching all day,being ready to trade on the Action.
However azworkinit are you holding this from Higher Price?
I'll put up a chart later with my reading of Resistance/Support Levels.
cheers.
Even 'til Jaded.
Dig for the sake of it.
|
azworkinit
Member
Username: azworkinit
Post Number: 8
Registered: 02-2008Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
|
| | Saturday, May 03, 2008 - 12:12 pm: |
|
Hey Dug, my computer is old and slow for downloads and my trading method is green as grass. In other words, no I haven't downloaded the package yet.Ive been on GBG since 75c and sold out at 86c. Got back in at 85c,86c and 94c.I know it's erratic and all, though when we decided to trade back in January, GBG was one we thought to hold for some time.Hard to do when the markets like it is and profit's are better off in the bank. FMG was another and sold MMX thursday. What signifies a "short".Is it similar to day trading?.At the moment Im trying to take profit at 10-20%.Whats a CFD?. As I said b4, green as grass. Let "sharetrading101" begin. Regards Az.
"Success is a lousy teacher.It seduces people into thinking they cannot lose."BILL GATES.
|
dug
Member
Username: dug
Post Number: 3085
Registered: 07-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
|
| | Saturday, May 03, 2008 - 01:56 pm: |
|
Look at the percentages,az.
If you bought in Feb and still hold AND if you bought just before Wednesday last week.
At #1.10 such Holders have 50%+ or at least 34%.
Your own "method" az shoots for 10/20% so what do you think is going thru the hearts'n'minds of these earlier Holders?
Sell,right?and if the Holders have such a "motivation" are there going to be any Buyers Fronting up to absorb this profit taking at 110+levels?
No? so GBG is on for a Retrace ie gunner go DOWN.
Where to?
The 150EMA is 97 cents;there's a Gap at 82/80ish.
Gaps can get filled or act as Support or Resistance points.See how the previous gap around 110 acted as somewhat Resistance on Friday?
So,now this is only an Opinion,not Holy Writ OK? but seems GBG is for a Retrace.
Now was there NEWS Thursday that generated this Move?
I haven't looked cos I don't Hold so you tell me.
While you're at it do you Know anything about that Volume Spike on April 2? Was some Substantial Change Notice issued?or any explanation for this made?
If you don't know about Shorting or CFD's?that's "good" Ignorance is Bliss about such matters IMHO.Better you work on share picking,Money and Trade Management than go into the "esoterics" at this stage of being a Pilgrim to MaMMon.
Happy Trading.
Even 'til Jaded.
Dig for the sake of it.
|
adzman
Member
Username: adzman
Post Number: 126
Registered: 08-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
|
| | Saturday, May 03, 2008 - 08:19 pm: |
|
You may be right Dug, a retrace in the s/term is on the cards. However, m/term downtrend now broken, and respect of the /term trendline is in tact. So, if your can handle waiting a while and dont have such a s/term mentality, this is on its way up to test ATH in the next 2-3mths. When it rises, it rises sharply, normally between 50-150% over a 2mth period, which has history as evidence (recently Nov06 - Jan07, also May07-July07).
I hold.
IO forever (I also own TTY, BHP & CUL as IO plays)
|
dug
Member
Username: dug
Post Number: 3087
Registered: 07-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
|
| | Sunday, May 04, 2008 - 10:56 am: |
|
I did notice a Cause for GBG's Downtrend.That being an unsuccessful TakeOver attempt of an African based Company.Was it SDL?that's my memory.
Anyway,it was "divined" that GBG was proposing to pay too much for an unknown quantity.The Company to be taken over had No JORC level Reserves etc and Africa is considered pretty dodgy if only in the sense that Long Time Delays are expected in each and every stage of Mining as well as the general political quagmire.
Anyhow as this TakeOver play didn't happen,GBG may be placed now for an upswing because doubt is off it's back.
However I wouldn't look at chart history to predict such moves as in here-
adzman wrote on Saturday, May 03, 2008 - 07:19 pm:it rises sharply, normally between 50-150% over a 2mth period, which has history as evidence (recently Nov06 - Jan07, also May07-July07).
This time GBG will be rising against Resistance in a less euphoric market.Before it was Flying Blue Sky,no Holders were in Loss.The coming months are different.Break Eveners are a barrier.Will cause Sellers to swamp Buyers etc.GBG faces the Wall of Worry so will not jump along at those mentioned percent gain rates.In My Humble Opinion that is.
Azworkinit-Adzman's Chart is a Different Method one called a Point'n'Figure in case you're "confused" by it's differences to a "normal" one.
cheers.
Even 'til Jaded.
Dig for the sake of it.
|
azworkinit
Member
Username: azworkinit
Post Number: 9
Registered: 02-2008Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
|
| | Sunday, May 04, 2008 - 02:08 pm: |
|
I was wondering if ANZ cleaning out the OPES shares would have been holding the price back somewhat.I read elsewhere that they are now out. I dont have any idea why the volume you talk about, though it wouldn't surprise me if a large player decided a stake would be a good idea?.How can I view who has been buying?. I noticed you seem to know who buys what on the DYE thread, Dug.
"Success is a lousy teacher.It seduces people into thinking they cannot lose."BILL GATES.
|
dug
Member
Username: dug
Post Number: 3090
Registered: 07-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
|
| | Sunday, May 04, 2008 - 04:50 pm: |
|
Az-
I checked on the 2nd April Volume Spike and it was connected with Opes but was the other mob,Merrill Lynch dumping their shares.I noted that ANZ was also grabbing some shares from Opes but have NOT found anything about ANZ selling them yet.So you should confirm that yourself.
As to Substantial Holders,the Top 20 Shareholders are listed in the Back Pages of the Annual Report,usually coming out in September.
Holders of 5% or more of the Total Shares who change their holdings are required within 3 days of the change to Announce to the ASX,such changes.
You find those in the News of particular Companies at your Brokers Site.
Note that 5% is the cut off point.A holder of 4.99% who SELLS does NOT advise the ASX but will if it Buys to hold over 5%.
There's more but I don't want to overload a Greenie.
So for the exercise read the GBG Announcements and correlate what makes the Price PERHAPS go up'n'down in response to the News Release AND what moves More or Less is happening with the Substantial over 5% Holders.
Happy Trading.
Even 'til Jaded.
Dig for the sake of it.
|
demo
Member
Username: demo
Post Number: 1
Registered: 05-2008Rating: 
Votes: 1
|
| | Sunday, May 04, 2008 - 05:35 pm: |
|
I am a new poster on this forum looks a good forum.
Re GBG, A friend of mine who is a Financial Planner told me to keep an eye on this at 74 cents, (potential takeover target) in fact he told me to buy at 74 cents, however I just traded the chart and bought at a break of 90 cents. Interesting to see that on the 2nd of April, around about the time my mate told me about it, the smart money started buying with over 26M traded on that day. Now it has broken the magic $1 mark the OBV looks rock solid. The only problem I have is I can't get a target and so I am trading his with a trailing stop loss to lock in profit with a possible target being the all time high of $1.70.
If you work on a 12 month weekly FIBO from the high of $1.98 to the low of 65 cent and based on FIBO numbers we have $1.19 at 38.2%, $1.35 at 50% and $1.52 61.8%. Interesting to see those numbers tested this week.
Kind Regards
Demo
|
dug
Member
Username: dug
Post Number: 3095
Registered: 07-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
|
| | Tuesday, May 06, 2008 - 09:50 am: |
|
Greetings demo,
On the 2nd of April Merrill Lynch sold it's collateral of shares that it got out of Opes Prime.Because GBG has more than a half Billion shares on Issue this didn't generate a Sub Holder Notice by Buyer only a Notice from Merrill Lynch.
I'd really like to know how this "Sale" went down.Was it On Market or by Bulk Transfer?Looking at the 2nd of April candle of such a narrow range it appears it was a Bulk Transfer.Who to?that's unknown but it does not necessarily relate to "Smart Money".
However,the last three trading days Thursday to Monday,have generated more Volume collectively than 2nd April.I thought the News coming out before Open on Monday may have indicated GBG was a "Leaker" ie news got around way before release.However the News wasn't all that "significant" so I think GBG is predominately running on rumour of TakeOver,The Chinese are just about to buy it,whisper,nudge blather.
If I was holding GBG I'd want to know about Melmar's Stake that the ANZ thru Opes grabbed.How many,what percentage of Melmars Substantial Holding is involved?Maybe your financial planner mate can tell you,demo?
I see your on Time Delay,demo.
If you fill in ALL your details including phone number and address this may be lifted quicker and you'll be able to chat more "instantaneously".
but,demo,I don't think Fibo is all that "flash".I call it the Maths System of Vegetables and do not think it brings the natural order to the Chaos of the Share Market.
Happy Trading.
Even 'til Jaded.
Dig for the sake of it.
|
azworkinit
Member
Username: azworkinit
Post Number: 12
Registered: 02-2008Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
|
| | Tuesday, May 06, 2008 - 10:19 am: |
|
Hello Dug, Some new posters I see. Must be the plug I gave you on another forum on thier DYE thread. Said you were very passionate about DYE and even quite knowledgable. As for GBG they are laying foundations for some very large sheds at Berth6, Geraldton wharf. The only thing holding them back is EPA approval. This is mainly affecting thier Haematite lode due to a small species of native flower, that for some reason likes to grow in the middle of a lot of hard rocks.Should be interesting to see if GBG can hold it's line and reproduce the gains of the past few days. Im a bit worried with the Dow slipping slightly o/night.
Regards Az. BTW, bought a small lot of DYE at .94, and also am keeping a close eye on silex.
"Success is a lousy teacher.It seduces people into thinking they cannot lose."BILL GATES.
|
| |
