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     rdumas
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Username: rdumas
Post Number: 1519
Registered: 11-2006
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Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, July 02, 2008 - 03:03 pm: |  
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Hey Dug,
I'm feeling a bit of déjà vu. Back in the late 90's I used to channel trade TLS and it looks like its doing the same thing again. If I was still into that short term trading stuff I would be just about getting into TLS to hopefully ride it up to around $4.80~$4.90.
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dug
Member
Username: dug
Post Number: 3289
Registered: 07-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, July 02, 2008 - 03:31 pm: |
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We've had an "exponent" of range trades here before,rudy.Problem is they get set-up by the 2/3 touches yet are subject to Break Down as well as Break Out and "d'experts" never come in to tell the audience or followers what they did in that event.
Personally every time I work out a Bleeding Andrew's Fork Channel pattern the danged thing Falls Apart often the Very Next Day after Illustration[see SDL earlier posts]
anyway,rudy welcome to the outside world of IC.
cheers.
Even 'til Jaded.
Dig for the sake of it.
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rdumas
Member
Username: rdumas
Post Number: 1521
Registered: 11-2006
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, July 02, 2008 - 03:54 pm: |
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Hi Dug,
Good point. I have to admit that I stumbled on the TLS range trading almost by accident. I bought into the original IPO and rode it up to its peak. When the trade started to fail, I got out. I then watched it go down and re-entered after the bounce appeared to be a solid one.
By the time it reached the previous top I was wary of a 'double top' so had my finger on the sell button which I quickly did when it started to turn down. I then watched it go down until it reached somewhere close to the previous bottom. I was really into double tops and bottoms in those days so was always looking for them. Any way that's how it all panned out.
The point is that if it had broken through the top I would have stayed in with my sell button ready. It really isn't that complicated when you are a short term trader provided you follow some simple stop loss (for the bottom of the range) and trailing stop loss (for the top of the range) rules. The channel trading came to an end when the price action fell through the bottom of the channel and never came back.
As you know I try to avoid short term trading these days but if was was still interested I would be buying in about now with a fairly tight stop below the bottom of the channel (say at $4.14). I came to that level by taking today's candle bottom at $4.15 and dropping the bar a smidgen. From a fundamentals perspective it probably wouldn't drop too far unless it was dragged down by the general market condition (which obviously is pretty negative right now).
Unless I'm mistaken I belive that I have just answered the question you posed relating to break down and break outs.
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dug
Member
Username: dug
Post Number: 3290
Registered: 07-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, July 03, 2008 - 11:06 am: |
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rdumas wrote on Wednesday, July 02, 2008 - 03:54 pm:I try to avoid short term trading these days
I read rudy your reasoning for keeping Westpac even though it's fallen below your Buy Price[I assume?]however what's your plot for MGX if it goes Loss?
I work from the maxim- a Long Term Hold starts as a short term trade that goes "well" ie doesn't hit stops.
I read in other forums of this "superior" attitude some have that being a LONG Termer means riding out come what may.I often suspect these denigrators of short termers hold their shares from a Buy In way above the current range.
Anyway,I know you consider 6months to be your time frame and not long ago 6months was thought of as Short/Mid Term.Today it seems holding at EOD classifies a Long Termer!!
So I assume you've got some Channel on your MGX chart that will trigger Stop Loss if cracked?I assume that point is ABOVE your Buy Price.
Illustrate your Trading Philosophy for the souls out of Daily Bread.
regards.
Even 'til Jaded.
Dig for the sake of it.
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rdumas
Member
Username: rdumas
Post Number: 1524
Registered: 11-2006
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, July 03, 2008 - 12:14 pm: |
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Hi Dug,
I have often said that my trading time frame probably averaged out at about 6 months but if stocks kept performing well then I sometimes kept them longer. A number of weeks ago I posted on the Daily Bread thread that in view of the market conditions that we were going through it didn't really suit someone with my sort of time frame and that if I wanted to be in the market then either I would have to revert back to my short term trading days or go long term.
In that post I indicated that my preference of the two options was that of the long term as I really didn't want to go back to my day trading days. I think that if you dug back through my posts I indicated that I had entered the market with the view of dollar cost averaging on the way down. My intention was (and remains) that I would invest about 16% into the market at the time and then build up that level to around 33% over the next few months.
So the intention as stated in that post still holds true. I mentioned at the time that I would hold to that level of around 33% until it became obvious (to me at least) that the market was somewhere around the bottom as confirmed by strong consolidation patterns either at the bottom or somewhere above the bottom after a sharp spike downwards.
I entered the market at around 16% below the November 1 high. At the time I envisaged the bottom to be somewhere near the March low and it was my intention to add my additional 17% at that level. Using rough figures, if my original portfolio fell in line with the ASX200 it would mean that I would be down around 8% on my original portfolio which would reduce to 4% when I invested the next 17%. My thinking at the time was that if the market went down another 10% from the March lows then my entire portfolio at the time would be around 14% down but the market would be down around 34~35% from the November high.
Being down around 14% with 33% of my capital would mean that my total capital would be down less than 5%. It would mean that my capital would still be positive as the rest was invested in cash. This would mean that I would be positioned in the market with a very good portfolio which would break even once the market moved up 5% and I would still be around 30% below the November 1 high. Note that I have not even mentioned whatever dividends may have been paid out in the interim.
One of the important things to do when actioning a strategy is to make changes to it when it becomes obvious that some of the original targets were not correct. It is now obvious that the original target of the March lows for adding to my original investment was incorrect. I am currently invested at 21% but will add the rest at lower levels. As we are dealing with the unknown it is difficult to give exact levels but needless to say the general principle remains in place. To be very clear it means that I am not getting rid of any of my current portfolio holdings regardless of how far down the market goes.
Unless we have a total catastrophe I believe that this long term approach will have me positioned with far greater upside potential than down side risk by completion of the second phase of my strategy. Naturally enough the two great unknowns are 1) how far will we fall and 2) how long will it take to get to our previous highs?
With 67% still in cash I could live for quite a long bear market.
Eventually things will get better (unless a giant comet hits us and then I wouldn't care what happened). Often when it does happen it happens very quickly and trying to judge when to get back into the market is always tricky. Using my long term strategy, I will already have a reasonably safe level of exposure to the market and hence will get the maximum benefit out of any fasts moves up.
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rdumas
Member
Username: rdumas
Post Number: 1549
Registered: 11-2006
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, July 09, 2008 - 02:03 pm: |
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Hi Dug,
Did you happen to notice how Telstra has performed since I suggested an entry at the bottom of my trading channel?
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dug
Member
Username: dug
Post Number: 3298
Registered: 07-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, July 10, 2008 - 11:17 am: |
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No I haven't been watching,rudy.
So it's bounced off a support line.Wonderful how TA works,hey?
I'm not very interested in trades in Blue Chips.I can see how if one was Full Time,Only Job is ShareMarket "diddling" that trades like this would be Bread'n'Butter.Required to do to make ya "weekly nut" but,me?well,I'm a bit more "academic".I trade for thrills,basically and one thrill is finding "contrary" to logic/wisdom.Proving the Experts wrong.
Here's one of my "findings",rudy that you with a basic understanding of FA gospel may find interesting.
Now,this probably is not True in the current market but I have Two [2] Examples of this being how it went down in the Past,recent 2/3 years.
It's to do with Failed Capital Raisings.That is when the UnderWriter has to pick up the new Issue.Now under FA this would be a Heavy Hint that the Company was a Dud,right rudy?Contact our mate Koka Kohler about
"What ya reckon of XYZ,Al?" and all these learned words about "Failed in a Capital Raising?Left the Underwriter holding?Why that's an Overhang,muppett and AVOID!"
Agree?
well,for starters the Capital Raising has NOT failed.The underwriter gave the Company the money.The Negativity lies in whether the UnderWriter is "happy",the problem is -
Will the Underwriter Dump on any insignificant rise to get their money back? ie Overhang d'price Action.
Well,I've found in my two,observed cases that the Share Takes off Significantly.[one went 20cents to $1.20 and the other 50cents/$1.40 ish]
The point is that they didn't just "survive" having an OverHang but Flourished.
Why?
well,I think the UnderWriter does a Mini TakeOver.
I have not yet observed how this situation generates a 5% Substantial Holder notice.I think the UnderWriter spreads the shares out over various entities to Avoid such legal requirements of reporting changes in Holdings but I think the UnderWriter actively organises the Share Price Not to Wallow but to Fly.
Anyhow,I'm probably confusing you.It's hard to encapsulate thinking that Guru's/Well Known Wisdom from the likes of Koka and that dill Whittaker may be Wrong.Especially when one is a ratbag,one step above,even on par with stoian!!
Anyway,that's what I've found and the two shares?
were MEO and DMX but like I said,that was year or so ago,they've had their "run".
One just has to watch for the Scenario to happen again at "better" times.
cheers.
Even 'til Jaded.
Dig for the sake of it.
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rdumas
Member
Username: rdumas
Post Number: 1554
Registered: 11-2006
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, July 10, 2008 - 11:40 am: |
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Hi Dug,
That's interesting mate. I must admit that I try to avoid thrills now that I am working with the money that I need to live on for the next 20 years or so.
I know that it's a matter of scaling down and perhaps speculating with a small amount but the interest just isn't there any more to play on the edges.......it must be a sign of the different age group cycles that we are going through. It's the same reason why I don't have the latest iPod or electronic wizbang thingo. I am flat out trying to work out how to set up a new TV when I buy one. The brain's not as agile as it used to be so I prefer to do the old fashioned boring things like investing in blue chips.
When you become more grey and wrinkly and the dementia has progressed further you'll know what I mean. 
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dug
Member
Username: dug
Post Number: 3299
Registered: 07-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, July 10, 2008 - 12:50 pm: |
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rdumas wrote on Thursday, July 10, 2008 - 11:40 am:interest just isn't there any more to play on the edges
well,if I say you're not a Purist,rudy,will you be offended?
I thought that Shares worked on Percentages Gained not the amount of money Earnt.
Now,you remember Arthur the Clown who was also a multi-millionaire? He did the I'm a Trader.Just made 15grand$ on some Blue Chip doing 3%.
He thought that was the Measure.$'s Amount gained NOT Percent.
We've got them all over IC these days.Whackers of 50 Grand onto a Blue Chip to make say $1500 in a day,a bleeding hour!!This is THE Criteria and I just don't want to Play.
Fancy being 30 years old say and having 50grand and doing this fiddling with it?
Suppose it's all right if you are $50grand free and clear BUT I'm always reading that such people are always using their stake to back up Borrowing.
Like $1,500 in a day turns into ambitions for $5,000 more so they can ponce around dreaming of buying an Island Hideaway in the bleeding Caribbean.Not just dreaming,rudy they pontificate such ambitions at BarBques!!
That's d'Measure-Will you make it to retire in the Caribbean!!
Ohhh they call it having Self esteem.They waffle about how their Ambitions should MUST be respected,supported.
Must be that I'm already Demented.I just can't see why one should dream the UnAttainable and motivate oneself to get into the ShareMarket Big/Full Time to Achieve.
Anyhow,I think you go Blue Chips,rudy cos ya think it's "safer".
Take MGX for example.Read in the paper how it's touted as a Fringe/Edge share "Goer".100% in a year they marvel.Problem is it's on par with it's price 9months ago.The 100%/1 bagger is only from holders last June or so.
Where was Lincon Star Stock Criteria back then?Was MGX earning any money June 07?Was it's PE etc blah flagging it for great things back then?
I doubt it yet these lagging,oh now we've got some figures,projections are now Superior Criteria for "sensible investing".
but,rudy maybe MGX is in one of ya Ranging Channels and you should use your time in it to gain that Percent NOT cloak your Buy in some high faluting Averaging Down to Get In Daily Bread Scheme that "crows" Been There done that [ie Short Term Traded] but now I'm "responsible",have "dignity".
I particularly dislike the use of How Much one HAS to Buy in one's "Plan" as an excuse for holding a downtrender as well as Why only Blue Chips being for "Liquidity" reasons.
but of course I hold Down Trenders,have many reasons and excuses for doing so please don't take offence.It's just d'pot calling the kettle Black!!
cheers.
Even 'til Jaded.
Dig for the sake of it.
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rdumas
Member
Username: rdumas
Post Number: 1557
Registered: 11-2006
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, July 10, 2008 - 02:49 pm: |
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Hi Dug,
Wow you dealt with a truck load of different stuff there didn't you. Forgive me if I leave anything out. I know that this is a strictly TA main thread but let's be naughty for the sake of covering some of the stuff you mentioned.
I can understand your thoughts about anyone holding trending down stocks as someone whose short term trade turned bad and they were too scared or stupid to get out of the trade. Believe me when I was in the early stages of short term trading I committed that sin often. I can honestly say that as a long term trader the thought processes are totally different especially when you are using a down trend to set up the early stages of a core portfolio. You are just going to have to take my word for it.
The thinking goes something like this. I am determined to get a core portfolio set up and this bear market is giving me an opportunity to get very good companies at extremely cheap prices. Yes I know that it may take a long time for the market to go up again but I'm prepared for that eventuality and expose only that amount of money to the market that I'm willing to have patience with. We never know when the market is going to turn around so the act of averaging down is a sensible strategy in order to achieve my ambition of buying core stocks at the very cheapest prices.
As a short term trader (once I became reasonable at it) the strategy of averaging down was a complete no-no. Averaging up is sensible but not the opposite. So that single characteristic is just one of many differences between short and long term investors/traders.
It's funny that you mention MGX. MGX happens to be one of the stocks that I selected as a core stock. Now I know that it doesn't happen to be in the ASX100 but it certainly would be in the ASX200 so it is a substantial enough company, is financially excellent and has been around long enough for me to have some idea of just how good the management and company is as a whole. Just by coincidence it is also a star stock. So for a myriad of reasons MGX is in my portfolio.
Re your comment about me not being a purist. It certainly doesn't offend me at all. I am what I am. What I'm defined as doesn't really bother me just as long as I'm investing within my risk profile and using strategies that I feel in tune with and I happen to have reached a stage in my life where I don't need any one else's permission or approval to feel good about what I do and how I do it.
Having been a punter I have seen people make money using all sorts of strategies. The share market is no different. A guy may want to use a $1M superannuation fund using long term investment strategies to make $100,000 so he makes 10% on his capital. Someone else may want to use $100k using short term trading so that he ends up turning over $1M ~ $5M throughout the year to make $100k is able to say that he made 100% on his capital. My aim isn't to be able to say that I made 100% on my money. My aim is to generate enough profit from my investments in a year to enable me to maintain the life style that I want for the rest of my life. As I have a lump of money that doesn't get helped by additions through wages, I have to consider safety in my investments as a key criteria. I don't want to go back to living the plastic life that is connected with the normal means of earning a living.
Whether different strategies makes one investor smarter or better than another doesn't even enter into my thinking. Being able to say that I made 100% is irrelevant at my stage in life. The older some of us get the less important the 'ego' stuff becomes. We both know some people who are never able to let go of the ego stuff no matter how old they get.
Tripping around the Caribbean isn't of interest to me any more as I spent my earlier years doing my world travel stuff. These days I'm more comfortable being in my own home surrounded by friends and family. I'll leave the living out of suit cases and being ripped off sampling the simple things in life on a world trip to others.
Re whether I think blue chips are safer. For me it's more the fact that I find investments safer if I know the maximum about them. That is I know that they are financially strong, they have good management, they have good products and/or services that people want, they have company strategies that are understandable rather than convoluted and built up through clever financial engineering, they have a history of consistently producing profits for their share holders. They don't necessarily have to be blue chips but they have to display the characteristics mentioned above. If that requirement makes me a 'lesser' clever investor in some people's eyes then that's okay. I feel comfortable with it and that's all that counts to me. Again I don't need other people's permission or approval to feel right about my investment approaches.
By the way I'm not concerned about you challenging my approaches as part of me feels that you have a genuine interest in getting other people's views even if you don't agree with them and on occasions I even think that your intentions are even nobler in that you want 'newbies' to be exposed to other ways of investing.
Cheers
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dug
Member
Username: dug
Post Number: 3303
Registered: 07-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, July 12, 2008 - 11:22 am: |
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rudy,you started this thread by "tipping" Channel in TLS,so here's a Channel in the share you actually bought,MGX.
btw MGX is in the ASX 100 etc.so says my Aspect Huntley.
I believe [but haven't confirmed]that the {?} caption was when the RIO price news on IO came on to the Market.Most all Iron Orers incl non producer pennies all got a Fillip on that day.I think you,rudy also picked then as an Entry Point excellently on the Low in MGX.
However I'm reading the above chart as Two Channels BUT with a possible return to the Orange one meaning a low side target $2.30ish.
Now I realise I don't draw Lines kosher in this according to the rules of Support/Resistance pure TA.I like to find points/a line that shows breaking,either side of the point.I reckon this shows the Price AROUND which Support Resistance Kicks In.
Anyhow,I whacked these lines in and then did some calculator on them and thru d'Wonders of Maths found a 17% differential between the two channels ie 17% between top of Orange to top of Yellow and between the Bases.
Coincidence?probably but it's better than bleeding Fibbo or blessed EW because it was Free Formed.Anyway,I got a bit of a "thing" about Fib 'n' EW but won't babble on about it.
So my take is that there's a possibility of MGX going down to $2.30.
Note how the Weinstein MA is cracked,that I think BHP is going to chuck a cow when it doesn't get that Freight premium in it's Iron Ore Chinese Contracts,lot of holders above $3 could do the Ditch on any further price down[sentiment collapse]
and well rudy.
I think your re-entry into the Market Long Term should use Long Term Trades are Short Term ones that GO right.
I reckon you entered with the "plan" of Averaging UP ie retraces would not return to your first entry point.
I can see No valid Reasoning to buy at $2.80 ish with the Planned Ambition to buy more at $2.30 [IF such happens].
but you,rudy,Feel Free to do it how ya want.
regards.
Even 'til Jaded.
Dig for the sake of it.
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polpak
Member
Username: polpak
Post Number: 11
Registered: 07-2007Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, March 19, 2009 - 01:20 pm: |
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Any explanations about TLS Telstra now ?
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ken
Member
Username: ken
Post Number: 557
Registered: 04-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, March 19, 2009 - 03:57 pm: |
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I heard today that Telstra was being fined by the competition regulator for telling competitors that it was not possible to access several main exchanges when access was possible. Also with Sol leaving, not getting the NBN, and "safe haven" stocks out of favour, its going down
Ken
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redrover
Member
Username: redrover
Post Number: 820
Registered: 04-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, March 21, 2009 - 02:33 pm: |
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ken wrote on Thursday, March 19, 2009 - 04:57 pm:.......being fined by the competition regulator for telling competitors that it was not possible to access several main exchanges when access was possible. Also with Sol leaving, not getting the NBN, and "safe haven" stocks out of favour, its going down
Ken, YES, all of those reasons are true but they are all fundamentals and in this forum we should try to find a technical reason why it's going down.
TLS opened in November 1997 at approx $3.50 and has now fallen below that to its lowest ever at approx $3.00 (see chart below)
When I look at the chart I can only see "management arrogance" and "treating the customers like suckers" but alas, they're fundamental too. Perhaps someone else here could offer a purely technical explanation?
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sway
Member
Username: sway
Post Number: 478
Registered: 12-2005
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Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, March 21, 2009 - 04:31 pm: |
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I'll have a go:
TLS was in an uptrend ending in the triple top in 2000. It has been in a long term downtrend ever since. When it breached the long term $3.50 support line, then you need to look at something like Fibos to work out when it might find the next support. My trend channel shows that might be at about $2.50
Cheers
Sway
This is not a recommendation or advice. As they say .... DYOR.
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sway
Member
Username: sway
Post Number: 479
Registered: 12-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, March 21, 2009 - 04:43 pm: |
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It looks even worse on a linear chart.
Trend channel target below $1
Not very cheery
Sway
This is not a recommendation or advice. As they say .... DYOR.
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archer
Member
Username: archer
Post Number: 2027
Registered: 11-2002
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, March 21, 2009 - 05:25 pm: |
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Technically= once it broke the july 06 low why hold it or buy
That was a huge 2 year rounding base pattern that failed
TLS is a dinosaur and if it does not adapt it will end
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redrover
Member
Username: redrover
Post Number: 821
Registered: 04-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, March 22, 2009 - 08:11 am: |
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Thanks Guys 
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