CRAAAASH AND GOLD

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archer

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Monday, September 29, 2008 - 07:05 pm:

Looks like Wall street is going to crash this market till
it gets what it wants and thats the real reason for the
short selling ban-so average Joe cant take advantage
Meanwhile the shortage in the retail gold and silver market
is unprecedented

http://www.thepost.ie/post/pages/p/story.aspx-qqqt=MARKETS-qqqm=nav-qqqid=36223- qqqx=1.asp

Till recently there has always been a long list of people
buying and selling 100 ounce silver bars on ebay at
premiums of 30-50% over the spot price but just in the last 24 hrs all auctions have been pulled
No-one wants to sell their Precious metals

http://www.24hgold.com/viewarticle.aspx?langue=en&articleid=311877_Dichotomy_in_ W__European_Gold_and_Silver_Prices_The_Prudent_Investor

I believe we are going to see backwardation in the gold and
silver markets very soon and that will signal -GAME OVER-

archer

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Tuesday, September 30, 2008 - 10:54 am:

Gold at all time high in oz dollars at 1150
LHG flag break(not happened yet)targets 3.80
Sentiment is still low in the golds
Maybe some hundred dollar up days will fix that

Only $12 (USD) per month

archer

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Monday, October 06, 2008 - 12:16 pm:

Noting that the confirmed V-Bottom has turned into an S-Bend
yet again its time to look at the charts for some guidance
Next support is at a previous high around 4280 (61.8 r)
If this leg = the first leg down target around 4200
Under that there isnt much till 3500

xjo

tryhay

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Monday, October 06, 2008 - 04:44 pm:

*OUR EMPIRE IS COMING DOWN!* Ron Paul yapped on about this back in March and more particularly for several years ~ a selected Youtube available here:

http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=PoxlzPGIPt4&feature=related

Perhaps when the US $$ drops again (now dont hold your breath ) the saviour will be gold & other commodities (seems to be a bit early to get into them just yet). Atim Kabra from Hardnews (sounds like a reputable news service don't it) says:

"A dollar collapse will once again trigger a run up in the prices of commodities, most of which are traded in US dollars and rise in tandem with a fall in US dollar in order to preserve the price to producers in real terms. True, that there is a slowdown in the fast growing economies of China and India which were blamed for an increasing demand for Oil. But the call you have to take is whether the slowdown in China and India and elsewhere would be enough to slowdown the demand for commodities. The trillion dollar question is whether the demand slowdown resulting from slowing economies will be enough to negate the impact of a falling dollar. Compounding the calculations is the strong multiplier affect which is now exerted by hedge funds which tend to jump in to chase momentum magnify the movements in prices in either directions. Commodity focused hedge funds have had a good year inspite of the battering taken by them over the last few months and are still a force to reckon with. I am sure they are their watching the scenario play out and waiting to pounce on the currency movements. A slowing economy with rising commodity prices may just be the wrong prescription doctor ordered and may lead to a lingering health crisis for the markets in the short run. It will require bravery to bet on a continuing fall in commodity prices in view of the worsening scenario for US dollar. Expect a fall in US dollar to lead to a reversal in falling prices of commodities. " For them interested more info here: http://www.hardnewsmedia.com/2008/10/2372

Most charts look to be going back down into O'sold territory ATM ~ could soon be time for one of them small bounces (perhaps it will be across the boards) ...

US $ Chart: looks more like it has broken out from resistance ~ too big to post...

Happy trading DYOR

archer

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Wednesday, October 08, 2008 - 01:26 pm:

Ive been following the Paul story for a few years Tryhay
Its unusual to see a man of such integrity involved in politics
The support he was generating for his campaign earlier
in the year was good to see and had me thinking the yanks
might be waking up but alas the media (apart from a few
commentators)ignored him

Gold surges to 1250 oz dollars

Gold rationing continues with the U.S mint ceasing production of gold coins
http://africa.reuters.com/metals/news/usnN07435260.html

Central banks all but stop lending gold
as the gold and silver lease rates surge
and fears of not getting their gold back
http://www.gata.org/node/6738

CNBC airs prediction of default in paper gold
http://www.gata.org/node/6733

archer

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Thursday, October 09, 2008 - 05:50 am:

Yesterday i posted
Gold surges to 1250 oz dollars
Today gold is surging toward 1350 oz dollars
In less than a month the oz dollar price of gold has risen
almost 50% from 920
Companies like LGL and NCM are making close to $1000 per
ounce PROFIT at these prices
At close to 1mil and 2mil ounce production respectively
thats close to 1 billion and 2 billion dollars profit
with market caps of 5 billion and 10 billion these 2 have
to be the best value in the country

archer

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Thursday, October 09, 2008 - 07:54 am:

Gold, silver in short supply for those getting out of stocks
http://www.daytondailynews.com/n/content/oh/story/news/local/2008/10/08/ddn10080 8goldweb.html

Gulf central banks look to gold as uncertainty rises
http://www.gulf-news.com/business/Commodities/10250412.html

archer

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Thursday, October 09, 2008 - 10:53 am:

XJO drilled the target this morning at 4270 and has bounced
strongly so far
Nov 1st is 1 year from the high and may be a retest
Im putting a decent size toe in

archer

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Friday, October 10, 2008 - 05:49 am:

Well that didnt last long
I;ll be extracting my big toe this morn
as this market is week enough to crash to 3500-3600
Gold has just gone vertical 40 bucks in 5 min

tryhay

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Friday, October 10, 2008 - 06:53 am:

Hi Archer,

archer wrote on Thursday, October 09, 2008 - 10:53 am:
Im putting a decent size toe in

That was a gutsy call, I know o'sold ain't a reason to buy in, and these are record breaking historic times (make or break) ~ I hope you are wrong about 3500 - 3600 as I'm just about all out of the short shorts (still got to offload the last of the WBC puts), but not yet captain buy yet (though have started to call). I see potential in the toy gold sector developing (see here <http://forum.incrediblecharts.com/userscripts/forums/show.plx?tpc=8&post=141259>)

Ira E Futures is suggesting a possible consolidation on Gold before rocket (paraphrase) at end of October (perhaps I'm too sceptical but I saw some long term cycle stuff last year [at ATAA] suggesting a top in gold some time soon [2009?]).

Appreciate you posts and looking forward to the rubber band effect some time soon.

Hope you remember to keep your legs together and hold your breath...

Happy trading DYOR

archer

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Friday, October 10, 2008 - 10:10 am:

Its only gutsy if it comes off Tryhay otherwise
it just looks silly
Not much damage done
This fall could really accelerate into a friday arvo close
The big golds are bouncing back well and ive been watching
the smaller ones as you have and have noticed the bids
starting to come back in the market

archer

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Friday, October 10, 2008 - 03:27 pm:

Gold at 1400 now
and the best performing large cap today?
GOLD
Things must be bad(;->
Gold forward spreads continue to shrink
If 930 gives tonight could see a 50-60 upday

whiteowl

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Friday, October 10, 2008 - 04:26 pm:

Hi All

Given we are in CRASH mode the below shows Gold vs XAO (Green) for the big one of 1987
The XAO did a Fib 61
Gold Fix USD went up 10% $450-$500 over the next month
Then also had a melt down
Is this what we might expect ?
Any opinions ?

Owl

1987 XAO vs USD Gold Fix

archer

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Monday, October 13, 2008 - 02:21 pm:

Hi Whiteowl
In my opinion this cycle will follow the 1929-30 model much
closer than the 87 type
Stockmarkets here and around the world will be down to
sideways for the next few years possibly longer
(unless governments try to get out of this problem by
hyper-inflating)while PMs and gold stocks go way higher
MY tip-About 2 years out NCM will be the highest priced stock on the ASX and be more profitable than the banks

P.S Suncorp acting badly-is this the first aus bank in trouble?????????????????

archer

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Tuesday, October 14, 2008 - 01:14 pm:

Suncorp-Talks end offers unlikely
No-one wants to touch it
This banks in trouble
Is that why Rudd guaranteed deposits over the weekend('->

archer

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Tuesday, October 21, 2008 - 12:40 pm:

Perth mint joins the bullion rationing bandwagon
-------------
Important Update- As of today 20th October 2008 the Perth Mint has halted production for any new orders of all bullion gold & silver coins except for the 1oz Gold Kangaroo’s. This decision has come in the wake of unprecedented quantities of orders which the Perth Mint are currently working on filling by striking more coins 24 hours a day 7 days a week.

sway

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Tuesday, October 21, 2008 - 01:03 pm:

archer wrote on Tuesday, October 21, 2008 - 01:40 pm ........... :
except for the 1oz Gold Kangaroo’s.

Even the Perth mint has apostrophe butchers. Or is that butcher's?

Cheers

Sway

This is not a recommendation or advice. As they say .... DYOR.

archer

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Tuesday, October 28, 2008 - 10:08 am:

Here is a monthly chart showing the early decade highs
at 3440 that we are now fast approaching from above and
should be very significant support.Interesting that 50%
of the high of 6873 = 3437
xao

The 87 crash fell right on 50% of the high

archer

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Thursday, November 20, 2008 - 01:07 pm:

Its hit the 50% mark but i see no reason to buy(apart from a gold stock)
The selling is relentless just as the buying of gold has
become relentless
Gold Demand Rose 18% in Quarter as Price Lured Buyers, WGC Says
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601012&sid=aTyN07fDbZYw&refer=commoditi es

kate

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Friday, November 21, 2008 - 11:55 am:

Archer

There is a lot of talk about the possibility of gold going down if we enter a deflationary period and I am quite prepared to dump it in that case. However, there appears to be a bit of a support level developing around the 730 mark at present. Have a feeling there is the beginning of a disconnect between the USD and gold. Am I away with the fairies?

Regards
Kate

archer

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Friday, November 21, 2008 - 12:38 pm:

Kate
Gold is showing good support at this level and the U.S buck
is in a 5th wave that looks to be tracing out a rising wedge
Theres no use making predictions in this market as no
analysis is working at the moment.I took a position in ncm
yesterday but thats all i have at the moment
There is a 5 day down pattern in a U.S gold index that
many times ends the move and a large countertrend begins
I'll take some of your fairies if you have any to spare(;->

archer

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Friday, November 21, 2008 - 12:42 pm:

Oh and by the way the market is signalling a severe recession next year dont listen to the pollies or media
The media have become a management tool

archer

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Friday, November 21, 2008 - 12:51 pm:

Quietly, without fanfare, the Federal Reserve has turned on the printing presses.

http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/2008/11/14/quantitative-easing-has-begun/

kate

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Friday, November 21, 2008 - 01:59 pm:

Archer

Agreed, there is no point trying to predict anything. Meanwhile I am enjoying the fact that GOLD pref shares have gone up, mind you it has been due to the decrease in the AUD as opposed to anything else!
Nothing that the Fed does will surprise me, they were always going to to turn on the printing presses it was just a matter of when. Bernanke may be faster than most to push that button.

Regards
Kate

PS Did you see the news about BNB today!?

archer

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Friday, November 21, 2008 - 02:07 pm:

I have now-looks ugly

archer

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Saturday, November 22, 2008 - 08:35 am:

Kate
I just dont understand why the media here quote gold in U.S
dollars
All the brain dead couch potatoes watching the finance
reports on telly here actually think the price of gold
is falling these last 3 months and therefore its no good
as a safe haven
The pog has actually risen near 40% here in the last 2 months
What other stocks on the asx are going to have hugely rising
profits in the next year apart from the big golds
This from my post above
----
MY tip-About 2 years out NCM will be the highest priced stock on the ASX and be more profitable than the banks
----
With the amount of bad debt the banks are going to be writing off
in the next year this may happen much faster
There profits are going to plummet
-----
On another note the perth mint have just installed new
machinery to increase production and still they cant keep
up so they have just suspended ALL orders for everything
again

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,24687337-643,00.html
----
Hang on to that gold Kate

archer

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Saturday, November 22, 2008 - 08:37 am:

Well the run pattern in the gold index worked a treat
HUI and XAU up a WHOPPING 27% last night

archer

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Saturday, November 22, 2008 - 08:42 am:

Check out the GOFO (Gold Forward Offered Rates)
http://www.lbma.org.uk/2008gofo.htm
Its gone negative the last few days meaning gold is VERY
close if not already in backwardation
backwardation in gold means it has become the currency of
last resort
Silver is very close to going negative
http://www.lbma.org.uk/?area=stats&page=sifo/2008sifo

kate

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Saturday, November 22, 2008 - 10:13 am:

Archer

Well that was a nice surprise to wake up to this morning!
You can be rest assured I am not selling, this is long term stuff.......as long as the price stays above 680/700. I had to wait months for the right set up and even then it took almost a week for my order to be filled. I used both USD and AUD prices for entry. If gold comes back to test 730 I'll buy some more. With the amount of volatility about it will probably be sooner rather than later!

Did you know that the ASX is launching a silver ETF next month? (and Platinum, Palladium and precious metal basket)

Thanks for the link to the GOFO.

I had no idea about the five day down pattern. This is particular to gold I'm presuming?

Regards
Kate

archer

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Saturday, November 22, 2008 - 11:48 am:

Its particular to a gold fund
U.S. Glb Inv Gold and Precious Metals (USERX)
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=USERX
Its not my work but belongs to a guy by the name of Jeff Kern
He used to post all his stuff for free including his
formula's and run patterns-pretty amazing and complex stuff
but it works
Think he took it all to a subscription site a few years ago

whiteowl

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Saturday, November 22, 2008 - 02:28 pm:

Hi All

From 12 Nov in case you did not read it
http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page34?oid=72895&sn=Detail

Newcrest is still setting an example on cash costs which in the financial year just ended had dropped to $A261/ounce ($US173/oz) after by-product credits. In the year just ended the company achieved a record cash flow from operations of $A1.018 B ($US674 M) - up 163% on the previous year and the return on capital employed lifted to 21%.

Gross Profit = Sales-Cost Of Good Sold = AUD 1200 - 261 = WOW !

The only down side of the AUD slide seems an impaired NCM hedge book to the tune of 800M (F08 Annual Results page 29)
Once they get past that they may in fact be 'The Biggest Australian'

Cheers
Owl

archer

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Monday, November 24, 2008 - 09:45 am:

Gold production to hit 20-year low

http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,27753,24694591-462,00.html

Some are waking up to rocketing gold stock profits

http://business.theage.com.au/business/gold-output-lags-as-price-goes-up-2008112 3-6ewq.html

What if the saudi's got smart and stop buying bankrupt u.s
banks and start buying gold stocks

http://www.tradearabia.com/news/newsdetails.asp?Sn=RET&artid=152824

kate

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Monday, November 24, 2008 - 11:22 am:

Nice to see some positive news for a change. Everyone else must have read them too if the huge rise in gold stocks are anything to go by. Nice profit on NCM! Did you have LGL as well?

archer

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Monday, November 24, 2008 - 11:30 am:

Yes but bought them a bit higher up
Geee i cant believe how weak this market is
Its not going anywhere without the banks

archer

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Tuesday, November 25, 2008 - 07:42 am:

Forget deflation when the feds are buying debt
U.S. Pledges Top $7.7 Trillion to Ease Frozen Credit
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=arEE1iClqDrk&refer=home

kate

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Tuesday, November 25, 2008 - 08:58 am:

Archer

I know, I heard that this morning then read the following a few minutes ago. Got that awful feeling in my stomach again.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/835d3992-b979-11dd-99dc-0000779fd18c.html?nclick_check =1

Remember Martin Armstrong's cycle?!!

Regards
Kate

kate

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Tuesday, November 25, 2008 - 02:23 pm:

Archer

Completed my buying of GOLD this afternoon. I had planned a better entry point but the AUD is on the way down again so not taking any chances.

Regards
Kate

archer

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Thursday, November 27, 2008 - 06:37 am:

Cash was king - now gold is God
http://www.thefirstpost.co.uk/45599,opinion,americans-are-piling-into-gold-as-na tional-debt-and-inflation-soar

archer

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Thursday, November 27, 2008 - 08:08 am:

U.S dollar fell down out of the rising wedge 5th wave
Target is around 83 but remember what happened when the
Oz dollar fell out of its rising wedge at around 95c
fell to its 85 target and kept on going
Oz now looks to have 5 wave down followed by a succesful
retest of the low
Inverse H+S base targets 78 if broken

Citigroup says gold could rise above $2,000 next year as world unravels
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/3526645/Citigr oup-says-gold-could-rise-above-2000-next-year-as-world-unravels.html

kate

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Thursday, November 27, 2008 - 01:38 pm:

Archer

Can you send me a link to charts? Not sure I fully understand the USD numbers.

Ambrose Evans-Prichard is the epitome of an "overexcited schoolboy". However, if he wants to alert the readership of the Telegraph to the advantages of gold who am I to argue!!!

Regards
Kate

shonegold

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Thursday, November 27, 2008 - 02:06 pm:

Hey Archer....if it is true and the yanks are truly piling into gold like it has some sort of miracle halo around it and will decouple from the rest of the commodities and soar heavenward which I can't see it doing....if they are wrong and it follows the path of all other commodities downwards on the same path, there could be some real wealth loss in the general population from this.

Legal tender coins redeemable for face value of American Gold Eagle $5, $10, $25, and $50. So the yanks are guaranteed to get $US50 for their 1 troy ounce of gold as legal tender.

If it does fall to below $US 50 an ounce I wonder how many stupid schmucks will be on Ebay selling it below face value of $50 an ounce? :D

Could be a good buying opportunity here!

archer

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Friday, November 28, 2008 - 06:54 am:

Kate
I agree EAP is a rather excitable lad
These charts should make it all clear

AUS5up
aus5up.bmp (21.7 k)

AUS5down
aus5down.bmp (21.7 k)

US5up
us5up.bmp (21.7 k)

archer

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Friday, November 28, 2008 - 07:12 am:

Shoney
Thats just it, the yanks are NOT all piling into gold
The people who are cleaning out the mints around the world
are very wealthy individuals
PM ownership by yanks is estimated to be below 0.5% of the
population
The piling in hasn't even started yet(;->

shonegold

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Sunday, November 30, 2008 - 09:34 pm:

So Archer...looking at the rise and rise of the $USD do you see it collapsing..if not why not? If so when and why? It did float back over the long term support resistance line of $80 pretty easily and hasn't even re-tested the 50day sma properly yet...which I find slightly disturbing.

I am watching Gold do the inverse of $USD pretty much step by step.

Quote Archer.. "PM ownership by yanks is estimated to be below 0.5% of the
population" Damnably interesting trivia question there...! Where did you find the figure?

colin_twiggs

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Monday, December 01, 2008 - 09:12 am:

Shonegold,
Please correct your Forum Profile so that I can release you from the moderators queue.

Regards,
Colin

archer

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Tuesday, December 02, 2008 - 02:54 pm:

Ann
Yes i do see the dollar collapsing just like americas
last 2 currencies collapsed and for similar reasons
When?? Pretty soon and i will just look for shorter term
patterns to try and find the start of the move-like the
wedge described above

"I am watching Gold do the inverse of $USD pretty much step by step."
Yes it will do that as gold is the "Anti-dollar" so i see
no reason for that pattern to change

archer

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Thursday, December 04, 2008 - 02:52 pm:

Gold buyers continues to SMASH records
http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/casey/2008/1203.html

archer

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Thursday, December 04, 2008 - 02:55 pm:

Gold now outperforming just about everything
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/2008/1203c.html

kate

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Friday, December 05, 2008 - 10:00 am:

Archer, many thanks for the charts.

It looks as though there is another bout of deleveraging going on so it will be interesting to see where gold finds its support this time.

The US, Europe and the UK are in a terrible mess and there is still nothing being done to address the real problem. The longer they leave the problems unsolved the longer its going to take to recover. As for the sharemarket, the only way is down with decreasing company profits.

Regards
Kate

Apparently there are still some hedge funds that are long commodities!!

kate

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Friday, December 05, 2008 - 01:07 pm:

Check out Rio, its now below $31. Not long before it will at parity with BHP.

Talk of China devaluing the RMB, I'm presuming if we don't go down at the same rate the miners are going to be in even more trouble.

archer

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Friday, December 05, 2008 - 03:25 pm:

Debt is going to destroy a lot of companies
LHG and NCM paid of all debt earlier in the year
An outstanding move in hindsight and they produce the
only commodity in the world where demand is outstripping
supply

archer

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Sunday, December 07, 2008 - 04:52 pm:

Here we goooooo!!!!
ECB cuts to 2.5pc and mulls "printing money"
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/interestrates/3551387/ECB-cuts-to-2 .5pc-and-mulls-printing-money.html

Bank of England mulls "nuclear option" of cash injection
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/interestrates/3551328/Bank-of-Engla nd-mulls-nuclear-option-of-cash-injection.html

archer

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Sunday, December 07, 2008 - 04:58 pm:

And here is the BIIIIIIGGG trouble ahead signal
----------------
RED ALERT: GOLD BACKWARDATION!!!
Once entrenched, backwardation in gold means that the cancer of the dollar has reached its terminal stages. The progressively evaporating trust in the value of the irredeemable dollar can no longer be stopped.

Few people realize that the shutting down of the gold trade, which is what is happening, means the shutting down of world trade.

http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/fekete/2008/1205.html

justice

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Tuesday, December 09, 2008 - 02:16 pm:

Michael Bolser, a trained physicist who developed dollar value commodity indexes and 10 months ago correctly forecast the scope of the current recession, expects more than 3,000 tonnes of gold to flood the market this week.

http://www.stockhouse.com/Columnists/2008/December/8/Horrific-gold--dump---Is-th is-guy-for-real-Thom

Regarde
just Ice

When it comes to war...America means business.
(War, Inc.) - http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0884224/

The Money Masters: How International Bankers Gained Control of America
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-515319560256183936

Abolish Fractional Reserve Banking - End the Fed

archer

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Tuesday, December 09, 2008 - 03:42 pm:

That wouldn't surprise me

archer

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Wednesday, December 10, 2008 - 09:39 am:

NCM shows a clean break above a flag and looks for 32ish
Probably some resistance currently at the 200+365 dma
ncm

archer

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Wednesday, December 10, 2008 - 10:24 am:

LGL is lagging a little
lgl

goldbug

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Wednesday, December 10, 2008 - 02:30 pm:

Archer,

Do you reckon that gap will get filled ?

Regards

GB

archer

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Wednesday, December 10, 2008 - 02:57 pm:

Its not required as NCM still has gaps back at June 05
Thats assuming the IMF dont dump 3000 tonnes in which case
those gaps at 13 could get a filling(;->

tryhay

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Wednesday, December 10, 2008 - 09:03 pm:

Not many posts on the forum lately (got to 5 posts until Rags updated competition); but you guys are doing your best to keep the numbers up in this thread....

I see Europe is a sea of red ATM, but DOW futures still +ve (God love them).

archer wrote on Wednesday, December 10, 2008 - 03:57 pm:
Thats assuming the IMF dont dump 3000 tonnes in which case
those gaps at 13 could get a filling(;->

Apparently the IMF do not have the required Congress approval to sell the gold anyway (that is if they have that much left to sell) ~ perhaps a bit of idle speculation occurring here across the web....

I see current gold price is up (chart below) & but is that divergence on the lgl chart??

Gold chart:

LGL chart: Looks like the House of Quality

lgl

Could be an interesting week/month, to finish off an incredible year..

(Message edited by tryhay on December 10, 2008)

Happy trading DYOR

goldbug

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Thursday, December 11, 2008 - 12:21 am:

Archer,

I actually meant the other gap ....

Tryhay,

Its gone vert ...

Regards

The BUG

tryhay

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Thursday, December 11, 2008 - 07:44 am:

goldbug wrote on Thursday, December 11, 2008 - 01:21 am:
Its gone vert

Yes the rumour is that "bernanke is buying gold today" so I am switching to an unbalanced gold spread when the market opens. Current price action seems to be plateauing @ $810

That leads to the statement (on Kitco) "I feel like snapping a towel on the top of his (bernanke) shiny head" a sentiment we can all relate to, I'm sure <https://www.kitcomm.com/showthread.php?t=29819>

I think there is a wish for some sort of Christmas Rally because of the seasonality in hard commodities etc., but the wind may to be picking up & or may just change direction ~ DONT THINK THAT WILL BE a VERY ATTRACTIVE look!

I guess you just keep your legs together and trade what one sees

cheers

FWIW BXB still looks a good short....

(Message edited by tryhay on December 11, 2008)

Happy trading DYOR

archer

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Thursday, December 11, 2008 - 08:12 am:

Yes that one will be filled
And that silly argument about gold paying no interest!!!
Well folks are now putting billions into 90 day U.S
treasuries at zero% thats right 0%

whiteowl

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Thursday, December 11, 2008 - 10:50 pm:

Hi All
Following your thread with interest
At 11.45 EST Kitco Spot Gold at 832
US$ Index Head and Shoulders and looking quite sick
Neck line broken
Cheers
Owl

archer

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Friday, December 12, 2008 - 12:41 pm:

Thanks for the chart whiteowl-saved me the trouble
------------
Switzerland may have to print money to stave off deflation

David Bloom, currency chief at HSBC, said the shift in policy was breathtaking. "The SNB are the hard men of central banking; they are even harder than European Central Bank. What they are saying is that inflation is no longer a problem, it's the solution. They want stimulus any way they can get it."

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/banksandfinance/3710374/Switzerl and-may-have-to-print-money-to-stave-off-deflation.html

tryhay

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Friday, December 12, 2008 - 08:50 pm:

whiteowl wrote on Thursday, December 11, 2008 - 11:50 pm:
Neck line broken

- not good so must be bad for the US$

Several of gold's indicators are now looking +ve ATM (respecting uptrend or reloading for a push higher), but price action has not yet broken out fully...

$GOLD_

Ready to top up calls & sold out of most puts at a loss..

Edit: < http://www.kitco.com/reports/ >
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0
February gold futures closed up $34.70 at $808.90 yesterday. Prices closed nearer the session high yesterday on more short covering and fresh speculative buying. Bullish "outside markets" yesterday--higher crude oil prices and a lower U.S. dollar--did boost the gold market. Price action yesterday also saw a bullish upside "breakout" from a sideways trading range on the daily bar chart. Bulls did gain some fresh upside near-term technical momentum yesterday, but now need to show that important follow-through strength very soon. Bears' next downside price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $760.00. Gold bulls' next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at the November high of $834.50. First resistance is seen at yesterday's high of $813.90 and then at $820.00. Support is seen at $800.00 and then at $790.00.

(Message edited by tryhay on December 12, 2008)

Happy trading DYOR

mads

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Saturday, December 13, 2008 - 06:33 am:

Other than buying the physical bullion, which of these would be the better option: -

ASX code GOLD - Bullion held in London Vaults, or,
ASX CODE ZAUWBA - warrants Perth Mint.

Any guidance would be appreciated.

mads

tryhay

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Sunday, December 14, 2008 - 12:40 pm:

mads wrote on Saturday, December 13, 2008 - 07:33 am:
Any guidance would be appreciated

Can not provide guidance ~ it is your money to do as you see fit, but this chart below shows a wider perspective on current events: Gold looks to have topped out and may in reality be going lower....... ignoring the UD$ & WTIC price action (if that is possible).

FWIW ATAA meetings have suggested the long term cycle for gold is down around 2009 Having said that it would be most unusual not to get the seasonal rally before any drop off.....

I guess my point is I have no clear idea what the price action for gold will be, but like you must attempt to trade it accordingly...

Happy trading DYOR

morton

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Monday, December 15, 2008 - 03:27 pm:

mads: I once bought ASX:GOLD, just keep in mind the share price is in Aussies, but the gold is traded in US dollars, so you're trading a combination of gold price and US/Aus currency.

This means it's also a good way to trade the US/Aus index.

archer

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Wednesday, December 17, 2008 - 09:35 am:

U.S.D crashed to H+S breakdown target and previous high
Also right on 50% of the move up

archer

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Wednesday, December 17, 2008 - 10:05 am:

Following the breakouts of the big 2 was CTO yest at 23.5
and today PRU looks like it wants to also

dibster

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Thursday, December 18, 2008 - 07:35 pm:

CTO pushing through 28c would look the goods to me archer. Pressing hard against the Bollingers, she might come off a little, before pushing on through 28. That said I'm keeping an eye on US gold and that upper channel. The breakout would have a flow on in terms of gold sentiment here.

Liking the look of BDG as well. Keep an eye on her coming through 20c. It likely needs a breather, but talks of mergers and $40 mil sitting in the bank with their trial mining doing enough to limit the cash burn to a minimum. Obviously attracting some interest after all this time in the doghouse

(Message edited by dibster on December 18, 2008)

tryhay

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Sunday, December 21, 2008 - 09:34 pm:

archer wrote on Wednesday, December 17, 2008 - 10:35 am:
Also right on 50% of the move up

Not to mention the 200_D_MA, and some of the indicators have divergence so perhaps a retest of support @ say $780, before a push higher to test out that gap Bug?

Chart:

gold

(Message edited by tryhay on December 21, 2008)

Happy trading DYOR

goldbug

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Monday, December 22, 2008 - 05:43 pm:

Hold on tight everyone ...

Regards

The Bug

whiteowl

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Monday, December 22, 2008 - 11:34 pm:

Golden army massing at the Maginot Line !

ASX/GOLD Close at $125
LGL Close at 282 .. 5 month Hi
CTO Close at SR 28c .. 5 month Hi and with Volume .. below
Hold tight indeed !

Cheers and a 'golden' Christmas
Owl

archer

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Wednesday, December 31, 2008 - 09:56 am:

Just back from a 12 day break
Here are the charts of CTO and PRU with the break points
CTO broke out at 23.5 and went up to form a cup and small
handle and broke up again with a target now at 39
cto

PRU broke out at 30 and went up to form a H+S base and has
reached the target at 58
pru

NCM has reached target 32 and is now in the top ten stocks
in the XAO price wise and should reach top position in a
few years

tryhay

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Thursday, January 01, 2009 - 01:53 pm:

Hi Archer

archer wrote on Wednesday, December 31, 2008 - 10:56 am:
Just back from a 12 day break

Good to be back I'm sure!

LGL looks to have some divergence and may just be worth taking some profit and swinging short term short ~ retest the breakout or the 200D_MA. I guess it could still get to that gap but needs some wheeties on the way ....

lgl

Happy trading DYOR

archer

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Friday, January 02, 2009 - 08:44 am:

Hi Tryhay
I am looking for a breather too as historically January is
the time for this to happen

archer

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Tuesday, January 06, 2009 - 07:38 am:

tryhay

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Friday, January 09, 2009 - 07:35 am:

Hi Archer,
This goes with that at suzannes....

archer wrote on Friday, January 02, 2009 - 09:44 am:
the time for this to happen

Spot gold up last night & Geo-political stuff increasing in Middle East:

Spot Gold chart: Not still vertical (where is Bug when one needs him), but heading in the right direction at the right time...

1_8_Kitco_gold__.

Longer term gold: MAs should provide support (and someone said AU heading towards $500 shish)....

1_7_GOLD_LT

NCM Chart: Bit more volume would support more

ncm

al in all a beautiful set of numbers..

time to start topping up longs IMO

Happy trading DYOR

tryhay

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Friday, January 09, 2009 - 08:28 am:

More importantly I should add one other piece of the puzzle

US$

Happy trading DYOR

archer

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Sunday, January 11, 2009 - 05:46 pm:

A false break and potential for another leg down to commence here
xao

kate

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Monday, January 12, 2009 - 10:28 am:

Hi Archer

I think we may well end up in a sideways pattern before the next major move down. A channel between 3400 and 3700 until March/April a definite possibility. The last sideways move in July-September was approx 3 months duration, is that time period likely to be repeated?

Regards and Happy New Year
Kate

archer

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Monday, January 12, 2009 - 11:16 am:

And a Happy new year to you also Kate
Hope its started off well for you(;->
I was counting from the lows to the false break highs
The lows of this sideways pattern need to hold as its 50%
of the highs and the old tops from 2001-2002 otherwise
2700 is on the cards
I did expect more sideways to up here but while its trading
below that 3700 line it remains in a VERY weak position
xao

kate

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Monday, January 12, 2009 - 11:49 am:

Archer

I thought the present sideways pattern was looking ominously similar to the previous one but didn't even think about counting the days! I presume you think the next move down is going to be sooner rather that later?

I started looking at charts in earnest last week, it was interesting that quite a number of the small miners have taken off, good for a short term trade. I'm presuming this is all because of the stimulus packages being announced and everyone hopes that metal prices will start going up again? I can't believe there is still so much hope around.

It is interesting that the XAO and oil seem to be behaving in a similar fashion, both have bumped up against resistance and neither have enough strength to push though. I think the oil price says even more than the XAO, $25 could be in its sights once more.

Gold is struggling to stay above $850. I don't know whether this is due to the IMF drip feeding gold into the market(their sale price is 850)or whether there is long term weakness. Alternatively, it could be just because of the tilt towards deflation at the moment and we just have to wait for inflation to kick in.

Kate

archer

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Monday, January 12, 2009 - 04:10 pm:

Personally i have a hard time believing the market is soooo
weak that its going to head down again after such a big decline already(maybe there is more disaster coming-maybe
Obama has to do some things he doesn't want to do)

But the chart says its a possibility so i'll be extra cautious
But going thru the charts of the top 200 nothing stands out as a buy so ill just wait for some patterns to form
Just as the topping patterns of these stocks took many
months and even years to form the bottom patterns will be
equally long

whiteowl

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Monday, January 12, 2009 - 04:45 pm:

Kate

.. quite a number of the small miners have taken off

The miners and the CRB index are technically oversold and there are now some 30 DMAs and even 100 DMA appearing
Some .. the explorers with debt wont be able to raise new money and are likely to disappear completely
Others like GBG and MGX who have sold large chunks of equity to China should have both money and a market
Some have sales contracts on the basis of 'cost of production plus' so they should be profitable 'regardless' of metal prices

.. the charts will tell
Cheers
Owl

archer

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Wednesday, January 14, 2009 - 10:47 am:

Hi Kath

I cant send emails atm so i will post a link here
to the entire article-Its LOOOOOONG(;-> 4.5Mb

http://www.safehaven.com/forums-28209.htm

(Message edited by archer on January 14, 2009)

justice

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Wednesday, January 14, 2009 - 11:05 am:

archer:
Here's the complete chart.

Economic cycle

justIce

kate

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Wednesday, January 14, 2009 - 01:25 pm:

Archer, Justice
I spent hours yesterday and today reading all the essays posted on the site.

The reason I mentioned this particular essay was due to my misunderstanding of what he meant by the Economic Confidence Model. I thought he was referring to share market cycles when he's not. He is referring to anything that creates a bubble which then bursts. This bubble is debt. I will have to go back to the drawing board!

Essential reading.
http://www.contrahour.com/contrahour/2009/01/martin-armstrong-the-coming-great-d epression.html

Happy reading
Kate

kate

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Wednesday, January 14, 2009 - 01:39 pm:

Whiteowl

I only trade on individual charts if I trade at all when the market is like this. Trades are entered into on a short term basis, have to be watched very closely and dumped at any sign of weakness. No big picture stuff, no sector analysis and definitely no fundamentals. That stuff works well in a bull market, in a bear market you have to realise that its all about psychology.

Regards
Kate

whiteowl

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Wednesday, January 14, 2009 - 11:28 pm:

Hi Kate
Thanks for reminding me of 'Strictly Short Term TA' .. all good
Archer .. thanks for your XAO chart of Monday
Here is my version for what its worth
1. 2008 Jul Aug Consolidation
2. SR 5200 retest with H and S breakdown
3. MACD and 30 DMA breakdown .. to 3750
NOW
4. Latest Consolidation Pattern (I like the 47 days !)
5. SR 3750 retest / fail (Based on EOD close), now with another H&S Breakdown
6. Plus 30 DMA breakdown

The MACD has a story to tell over the next 2 days

Cheers All
Owl

archer

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Tuesday, January 20, 2009 - 02:19 pm:

Danger now as we are trading under the sideways pattern
Will there be a feel good Obamarally or do we go straight
down(;->

goldbug

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Tuesday, January 20, 2009 - 10:06 pm:

straight up, Archer

Regards

The Bug

whiteowl

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Tuesday, January 20, 2009 - 11:26 pm:

Hi Guys

Put my hard earned money into Gold ???
All its got going is a 34 / 200 DMA Golden Cross
Put your money into the Banks' .. they are sound
LOOK at ANZ .. Bombs away ..

Cheers
OWL

archer

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Wednesday, January 21, 2009 - 08:33 am:

NO Obamarally so down we go
Gold was up 70 bucks to well over 1300 dollars an ounce
JPMorgan down 20%
Maybe their gold shorts are afire (;=->

archer

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Friday, January 23, 2009 - 01:57 pm:

Too bad we cant short the banks hey whiteowl
CBA looks worst of the bunch chartwise
Wonder if it will end up back in govt hands
XAO rallied a wee bit back to the breakdown point
and down we go again

whiteowl

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Friday, January 23, 2009 - 03:24 pm:

Ouch

XAO new lowest close at 3300
The clock is still ticking for the banks
They have yet to get past 6 am on the 'economic clock'
A real estate crunch will not be good for them

archer

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Friday, January 30, 2009 - 10:14 am:

The small rally came in right on time so do we go to
new lows from here
The TMF and OBV suggest the downtrend is weakening and the
seasonal cycles suggest a rally starting around the 5-7th
Feb
If it plays out the rally should last about 6 months and
move up to the 200 dma currently at around 4700 and declining
xao

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Monday, February 02, 2009 - 12:41 am:

Hi Archer,

Interesting chart and timings...excuse the ignorance, but what model are you employing to perform the analysis and make the predictions above.... are they based on fib numbers or similar? I'm intrigued......

Thanks in advance,
B.

whiteowl

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Saturday, February 14, 2009 - 04:10 pm:

Hi All
DOW Bearish Descending Triangle (see Dr Elder page 110)
Its getting very squeezy with the roof coming down
Many people now stamping on the floor
Cheers All
Owl

archer

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Saturday, February 21, 2009 - 02:27 pm:

Beenjammin
I prefer gann numbers over fibbs
Just scanning my memory im sure it was 90 degrees after
the 87 crash low that bought in the retest low
Today marks 90 degrees in time from the nov low and should
bring a little bounce but likely just another famous skip s-bend
Been hanging out with the dingoes at fraser the last 2 weeks
so haven't checked the top 200 charts
i'll do that when i get back to ol'Melbourne town
Gold and silver have been doing so well since i left im tempted to
just stay here
Gold at record over 1500 and silver topping last years high
to be well above 22 dollars per ounce

beenjammin

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Saturday, February 21, 2009 - 03:12 pm:

Thanks Archer! I really appreciate the response.

Fraser's a great place, we stayed at the Kingfisher about 8 years ago and had a great time dodging the dingoes in a Landrover. Great sailing around there, but chance of a cyclone or two this time of year. Hope you enjoyed it as much as we did. (Hope your house survived while you were away too!!)

Im trying to expand my arsenal of trading tools, and would like to learn a bit more - Any particular reason you feel more comfortable with Gann over Fib? Can you recommend a good text?

THanks
B.

ragchewer

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Monday, March 02, 2009 - 06:22 pm:

Archer,
Slipped passed the 90 degree square,,,

A hint could be the cycle between the top Nov and Jan that being 60 degree Sextile,now watching 120 degree Trine on the Equinox (?)

Need to observe another Gann comment "Tops become bottoms ,bottoms become tops" and also watch 4,5,6 March.

Didn't realise you were a Gannster.

Rags

archer

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Monday, March 30, 2009 - 01:54 pm:

Beenjammin
I prefer Gann simply because it works better from my experience
Ive never read a trading book but did study Mclarens work
heavily in the mid 90s so that is my main influence

Kath
Our finance system is still broken and all currencies are
devaluing against gold-heck the swiss are even selling
their own dollars
Our dollar looks like its going back to fifty cents
Gold setting up for 3rd try at 1000
when stocks and commods go thru BIG round numbers in most
cases they go 25-40% past
See oil and rio when they went thru 100

archer

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Monday, March 30, 2009 - 01:56 pm:

And a good read here

The quiet coup

http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200905/imf-advice

justice

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Tuesday, March 31, 2009 - 03:02 pm:

archer,
I think you'd enjoy this article posted in Vanity Fair, entitled:
Wall Street on the Tundra

http://www.vanityfair.com/politics/features/2009/04/iceland200904?currentPage=al l

It's very funny, but true.

regards,
j

archer

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Tuesday, March 31, 2009 - 05:13 pm:

Thanks ice
Say bye,bye miss american dream

Friday, March 27, 2009
Experts On Third World Banana Republics: The U.S. has Become a Third World Banana Republic

http://georgewashington2.blogspot.com/2009/03/experts-on-third-world-banana-repu blics.html

justice

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Wednesday, April 08, 2009 - 03:49 pm:

GOLD NCM LGL all rebounding off Fib supports over last two days. Paraphrasing Dave Chapman - comex soon unable to contain POG because producing gold stocks are set to rise.