We Are Still In An Uptrend Aren't We?

Chart Forum » Stocks - ASX: short term (strictly TA) » We Are Still In An Uptrend Aren't We?

«« Previous Next »»

Thread Start New Thread
Last Poster Posts Pages Last Post

Author

Message

dennis_menace

Member

Post Number: 1079
Registered: 09-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Monday, October 13, 2008 - 08:16 am:

Or are my eyes playing up?

gif

colin_twiggs

Member

Post Number: 3256
Registered: 09-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Monday, October 13, 2008 - 08:40 am:

Dennis,

Good chart. As long as we recognize that a market that overshoots in one direction is also likely to overreact in the opposite direction.

Regards,
Colin

stoian

Member

Post Number: 468
Registered: 03-2004

Rating:
Votes: 1


Tuesday, October 14, 2008 - 04:27 am:

Dennis,

It was a foreign menace indeed, but you have a very good=MOST PROBABLE SUPPORT (the pink line and curve) at 4.000 points - a better one, as for another world indices - not only for the SECONDARY TENDENCE (the brown one, for the evolution on very short intervals of time) but also for the MAIN TENDENCE (the orange one, for the evolution for short intervals of time)

Regards,

Doru Stoian

(Message edited by stoian on October 14, 2008)

stoian

Member

Post Number: 472
Registered: 03-2004

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Wednesday, October 15, 2008 - 04:51 am:

Dennis,

I was right AGAIN !

Even the DOW JONES is going downwards for a Sucker`s Rally, the ALL ORDINARIES is going UPWARDS !

Regards,

Doru Stoian

dennis_menace

Member

Post Number: 1080
Registered: 09-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Sunday, October 19, 2008 - 11:08 am:

Hi Colin & Stoian,

Thank you both for your comments. However Stoian as nice as your charts are (you do them in Excel?) I don't really understand how they work but obviously they are effective if they are correct in there forecasting.

Cheers
Dennis

stoian

Member

Post Number: 477
Registered: 03-2004

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Monday, October 20, 2008 - 10:34 am:

Dennis,

I showed you the magnitude of variation with the highest frequency in time and therefore the most likely towards the trend - because it is proved by history - this being the normal variation.

But you can also see the most unlikely amplitude of variation in time, called exceptional, which is a variation also called virtual, potential, which could take place even until the horizontal red line or the red ascending curve.

What do you think?
What kind of situation are we now?
In a historic usual situation, or in an exceptional situation?

Do you think Australian stock exchange market is not an American roulette, or do you think you actually play in one and the same global ONLINE casino?

Regards,
Doru Stoian

(Message edited by stoian on October 20, 2008)

beenjammin

Member

Post Number: 2
Registered: 12-2008

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Tuesday, December 09, 2008 - 03:24 am:

Hi All,

Just ran this a little further back to compare to the '87 drop....interesting comparing the parralell trend lines.

Good news is if these comparisons mean anything this might be the bottom. Bad news is last time it took 6 years to hit the previous high and 8 years to get support at that level.

By this diagram, as an uneducated guess I'm thinking a rebound to 4250/4500 by Sept next year. But look out for a sucker rally.......

Any thoughts on this?

Cheers
XAO

redrover

Member

Post Number: 809
Registered: 04-2005

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Tuesday, December 09, 2008 - 03:05 pm:

We often hear people say "When things return to normal" - which prompts me to think "What is normal?"

Your daily chart and my weekly chart (below) attempt to define "normal"

normal

At the moment the All Ords is very close to the bottom line of the "normal" channel. Until it moves decisively above or below that line we can't be sure what might happen.

The history books tell us that the worst problem with the Great Depression in the 1930s was that after the 1929 Stock Market crash, various Governments all did the wrong things.

My worry now is that in 2060 the history books will show that after the 2008 crash Governments made bad decisions that worsened the situation. Unfortunately, these things roll out slowly and we won't know if the rescue plans are good or bad policy until Obama has been in office for a few months - say by May/June 2009.