CNX-a study of Dynamics.

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D'UCG sector dug 3 1 09-Apr-09 03:55 pm

Queries and Comments dug 1 1 05-Apr-09 02:33 pm

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dug

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Saturday, April 04, 2009 - 04:52 pm:

CNX is an example of a Penny Share changing it's coat/turning in it's Colours in order to get another run at "Respectability".
Once it was a Uranium/Anything that was "exciting"Explorer coded MEE and then it took on a "Greenish" Tinge and morphed into CNX.
Sucked up to the CSIRO.Got an "on d'Cheap" ASX listing as a Developer of New Coal Technologies called UCG[undeground coal2 gas] Sector.

So chart shows pretty much the long term,d'History.
Mighty Run from 20 to 90 4 1/2 times ya money based on Sophisticated Investors anteing up 40 cents a Placement and Blue Chip IPL shoving in 20cents AND the CSIRO getting Free 18% Hold,payment in Lieu,for Developing this WONDER of Technology!
Wacko d'CSIRO is involved,let alone IPL so CNX must be Legit,hey Fresh Meat!!??

[a] is marked on the chart when d'Wobbles started.Bad Press,Greenie Inspired it's said.
This was "explained" at the time as Stupid Greenies who have some Vendetta against Coal and it's Use should be Immediately Banned ie a Basic Greenies don't live on the same planet rant.

b]encapsulates the false Runs 30/80 160% in days that CNX has as it's Go.

CNX is a News Generator Goer as a Trading Stock.It's captured the imagination of wannabe canny,young,investors for the long term,save capital gains tax types.

c] is an area that examples to d'Fresh Meat WHY Stops MUST be Used.Throw up your own charts and take note of how easy it is to be in Substantial Paper Loss of over 20 even 50 percent [buy at 50,face 26 and lower]

This share is a Speculative.Speculators are involved in it's Trade.Any and All Pilgrims who have any idea that this is a Speculation that one holds for Years waiting for the CSIRO element in it to come Good?
well ya're kidding yaself?

This CNX is in on d'Joke,as they say in Brisbane's Fortitude Valley.

and,Happily for you hey? I d'jr,jaded as I may be, am here to give ya d'Clue.

later.

Even 'til Jaded.

Dig for the sake of it.

dug

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Sunday, April 05, 2009 - 11:20 am:

There are some important points about the MEE background and shares that change focus etc.This is done,of course,to avoid having to set up New Companies and the attendant Expense and Required Disclosure etc etc.Old Directors get to keep their positions too!!
The Main Problem though comes in that MEE,as an example has on Issue a large percentage of Shares that are "stale",not used to provide Capital for the New Direction.In MEE's case it has at least Half it's shares [of some 450mil]that were issued to cover MEE's years of prior operation.What do these shares bring as Assets to CNX?

Well they have a WA uranium tenement of inferred resource,some Gold claim of similar status and a 10% stake in Magma Metals that has a Canadian Based Operation for copper/platinum etc.These are not very Liquid,not easily Saleable to provide CNX finance/cash flow.Company even values them at some $2 million so the 200million+ shares have been Issued for not much Value to CNX.

CNX is requiring between $80mil and A Billion Buck$$$$ to set up a plant from Basic Gas Supply to some outsider Power Plant up to a Refinery for "distilling" Ammonia for Incite Pivot [IPL].
It currently has about $8mil in the Bank.
Future Capital Raising is "hindered" by the MEE share Issues of the past as well as the CSIRO 18% Holding some say 80million shares.

See the CSIRO got issued with these shares in lieu of Cash.They were also an incentive to bring there science/boffin expertise to CNX Development of UCG.
However the CSIRO can not contribute Cash in any future Capital Raising.Government does NOT fund enterprises,especially single enterprises thru the CSIRO.

In fact the CSIRO charter suggests that once the scientific contribution has been completed that the CSIRO Holding is Sold thus financing Future CSIRO activity.
All this means is that CNX has what is called an OverHang in it's Share Registry.A share parcel block of 18% that will be sold providing CNX with NO Funding,only the CSIRO.

Now all of this means FA to short term trading but it's very important to note for any Long Term Investment ideas.The Only Long Term Package one should carry is one that has been developed as a Short Term Go that didn't hit any Stop Loss points.
Alternatively one can buy at say 30/Short Term Sell at say 50.Wait for it to retrace to 30 and be able to roll over into 66% more than your original outlay/hold.

Do you follow?Hope so because I'm about to go into some of the TA trading factors apparent and significant particularly to CNX that MAY be of some use in Trading ANY share ie this is "educational" NOT a RAMP.

later

Only $12 (USD) per month

Even 'til Jaded.

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dug

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Sunday, April 05, 2009 - 02:23 pm:

a] Is the All Time High Area and maps the action of it's Immediate Post Trading.
CNX formed a Consolidation 55/75 ish until d'dastardly Greenies conspired with BigBoys Foreign Interests[British Gas] to Trash d'little Ozzie Battler Goer,our CNX.
Basically the UCG industry got some Bad Press chiefly by the Australian.I won't go into that now.

Anyhow see X?
That subsequently will give back up for Gap Theory as it applies specifically to CNX.It also establishes 30 cents as a major price of Support Resistance for [b] [c] Observation and I think Future CNX action.

But first to Gaps and CNX.I have marked by the [a]n[b] tails the area in the 60's price that CNX has still open Gaps.This price range in the 60's MAY prove more Resistance to come even if 55[IMV the major current price hurdle to be cracked]

More Important note should be made of Price Action around the 150MA that I take as my confirmation as to whether a Share is in DownTrend [Below] or Recovering [Above]
In [a] section one observes the Bounce Off the 150 as Support and in b'c bounce Resistance.
So the 150MA is confirmed as a Useful Indicator in CNX's particular case.Cheers to Weinstein!!

Now I just use Lines Vertical[Trend] with an Emphasis on Horizontal[Support/Resist]This is very Basic TA so I am the last person to expect any discussion of all those other High Maths Indicators as Signals.
I prefer just Lines because you can get Price Levels to Target,be aware of Get Alert Zones etc etc ie they indicate my FUTURE by being based in the Past.

The Minor Trend lines in a] illustrates Break w/- confirming 150 move.However this was a "Zone" Break because the Higher one in [a] acted as the Line Break we were looking for and as you can see it was Resisted.

The Minor [a] Trend also shows how it was returned to in the [b] area on a GAP but acted pretty quick smart as a Support Bounce Price.

Looking at the [b] Minor Trend Line I wish you to Observe how Geometry can give a False Indication of DownTrend Break.
I take it that Horizontals take much more precedence over verticals and in the price Area that this minor got broke 30cents was the Resistance Price to Break and not 26 which was a mere geometry move that creeped price over the line in [c].

BTW I have no problem with breaking Academic Strictures about Trend Lines should not be drawn thru ANY price action.I take a few days outside the line but a quick return as Confirmation that they indicate Significant Price Points.
So what have we got so far-

55 cents with 65 as the Target Goal Zone ie Resistance to Break.

45 as a Support confirmed by it's establishment at [a]on 150MA as well as in [b] by touches as Resistance.

At 33ish We have 150MA with another 35 Horizontal[not shown yet]So this is a Test Case of what I've read second hand of Weinstein Theory ie break above 150 MA is confirmed by a Retrace Bounce back off it again.

So all in all this post is all ready to Get Current Action Happening.

BUT before any other Members post in this Thread please get d'Message
I have more Background to Set Up this Thread to write about.I wish to maintain Continuity from these three posts,my weekend's WORK!!

I will set up a Thread within this Thread called Comment and Questions where you'll be Free to say anything you like,ask,query etc etc BUT I will be requesting Colin to delete any posts that come in here and not into my Organised Secondary Thread.

I especially expect you CC to toe this Line.I don't want to Discourage your Comments,Charles.I just want to designate the Place as being in a Separate Thread.
It's at d'Top of d'Page,Chuckles.Isn't that ya preferred Stage??

toB continued.......

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dug

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Tuesday, April 07, 2009 - 06:18 pm:

Now we have some Support/Resistance Lines Layed Out with 150Ema as a confirming indicator of Downtrend[Below]/Recovery[above].

If you patronise other sharesites that everyday have every nuance commented on about every share particularly d'HOT,well reading them,listening to d'Warm Pig Barbque set can give some "feeling" as to where Long Termers are at Break Even.

Long Term how is that defined?well 9-12 months ago,one sees Consolidation in the 55/7,80 section.So for a Mathamatical Possibility I'm taking 62 Cents as a "average" Long Term Hold Initial Buy In 9 months= ago.

"Confirmation" perhaps lies in CNX's Price Bounce Levels AFTER d'dastardly Greenie DownRamp Incident.

Now I agree a lot of d'above is a "stab" at parametring Market Psychology.Some Scientific/Logical Proof for 62ish LT Break Even?
Well,there's Volume Observation compared to a 250 Simple Vol Average in a YEAR.
and there's the only times Twiggs TMF over Zero was in that price range[until last week]

Now I realise Volume and d'Twiggs are Weak Confirmation for Calculating Long Term Holders Possible Break Even Price Range so let's apply what Long Term Holders often engage in to my "theoretical" 62 Original Cost.
I'm referring to d'Dreaded Double Down Done by Dills who refuse to apply Stop Losses.

The "usual" d'DDDown is based on buying the SAME Number.Under this a Buy at 62 with a =# at 28 will give 45cents Break Even.
However if ya are silly/desperate enuf to do d'DDDown?one should do same DOLLAR$$$$ at the Base Price so 62 with 28 same $=38cents.
Do ya follow? If not?well Always use Stops instead!!!

Now of course there's Tripling/Quadrupling etc Going Down but I don't operate expecting Machine Precision only merely to get some idea of Where CNX is AT re long term Holders ie d'GIST!!!
A Chart giving SIMPLE Moving Averages for 6-12 Month [120-250 Trading Days] confirms,backs up,gives me reasons to be cheerful about my "analysis"

NOTE these are SIMPLE and do NOT include in above chart Weinstein[Wine-in-a-Stein]Guidance of 30wk/150 Day EMA's.

2B continued.....

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dug

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Wednesday, April 08, 2009 - 09:27 am:

So now we're at the practical application of all the above waffle that established and confirmed various Support/Resistance Lines based on Gaps,Weinstein's 150D,Long Term Holders "estimated" Break Evens etc.

One last "back up" for all this is provided by Fibonacci Retrace.The Maths System of Vegetables and d'Natural World.
I only include it because of Dennis Gartman's Trading Rules mentioning 50/60 Retracements as "expected"

So see the recent uptrend line?The one that starts at the 26 Gap.It's too sharp angled to expect it to be maintained ie High Probability of Breaking Under Today.

I'm reading that the "falling knife"/series of Down Days will continue til approx 35 where Consolidation Should/May Kick In.
35 would be an excellent retrace point as illustrating the Down Trend is over and a SUSTAINED RISE may have Started.

However there are some/quite a few FA reasons to maintain extreme Caution in CNX.For example TA thinking has a return sub 30,back to 26 or lower is not a Bargain.It may be a set up that takes CNX SUB 20 cents so-

Buy CNX if it CONSOLIDATES 35ish.Have 29 cents as a Stop.With trading 30/35 watched as a FAILURE of 35 support.

babble about FA and CNX's particular scenario Dynamic,I'll get round to later.
cheers.

Even 'til Jaded.

Dig for the sake of it.

dug

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Friday, April 10, 2009 - 10:34 am:

A brief update-

Previous Fibio's were based on the Move that broke the downtrend at 25/26.Such levels were Broken at the Major 50% Retrace "Indicator" but just to recalculate where 50% MAY be used I've moved the Guage to the Low Low against the High.
Personally I still reckon on a 35ish Consolidation will be the best outcome/scenario for CNX.That's where I'd Buy but would not hold on if it dropped/traded/closed into or especially below 30.
I won't go into whys and therefors.Not today anyway.

cheers.

Even 'til Jaded.

Dig for the sake of it.

dug

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Sunday, April 12, 2009 - 11:31 am:

The Position IMV of recent CNX events.

As I stated above,CNX leaks.Insiders when they get d'Word thru the Grapevine News is coming proceed to buy up for a Short Term Go usually on a T3 basis.This COULD be anyone from the Tea Lady/Typist/Team T3 in general.
This "phenomena" is very apparent,if one correlates recent highs/action over the last 6 months from the chart with dates of Announcements.

Basically CNX has been Testing a Plant that exploits Deep Coal Deposits by turning them into Syngas.So all the Company was aware of their Progress and it was Simplicity itself to know when the positive results would be released so a lot of "Insiders" could get to play.

However the Tests were successful.The CNX method was ticked for Efficient under Test Results BUT CNX was still in it's Financing Negative Position re actually being able to Commercially Produce even get a Cash Flow.[see previous posts on CNX and Money requirements]

Anyhow,CNX Management then came up with maybe CNX can get on the Coal Seam Gas bandwagon?

Why not?Coal Seam Gas[CSM] was hot,Hot,HOT.Billions being talked about how Refineries were being built down d'road in Gladstone.There was all that recent Takeover Action by Arrow/British Gas with Big Boys like Shell Oil and Origin and,well,just a plethora of flags waving MONEY.

So naturally Head Honcho CNX,one Andy[aka done his]Dash starts up muttering about how CNX is going to have "Talks" with some CSMers.They CSM are buying Gas and we CNX COULD supply them.

Now there's History between CSM and UCG that basically is based on InCompatability.

Nine months ago,British Gas tried to wipe out the UCG 'tiddlers" by blustering at the Qld Gov't along the lines of We [Brit Gas] will NOT invest our billion$$$ if you,Qld Govt don't sort out these pathetic,no hopers[UCGers] about Coal Tenements,enviro concerns etc babble bluster[Sounds Familiar Tactic but won't go there]

Anyhow,Done his Dash was only going to talk with these BigBoys but that was enough to focus Market Attention onto CNX,at least down d'BarbQue of Warm Pig.

Oh I am not surprised that FA as practised by Hot Shots has an odious ring in TA as being worth FA.

Once the waft on d'draft of CSM comparison floated,all this guff projections about how much CNX's inferred/indicated Reserves would be worth on TakeOver sprung up.
No relationship to Price of Taking Over the latest CSM target with the some only 70mil Shares on Issue was in the Equation[CNX has some 450mil shares on issue see above posts]

Anyhow,that's an encapsulated history of CNX up to recent month or so.

CNX had "Proved" by Test it's Method.

Now what?CNX had to come up with an Investment of some 100million$$ at least in order to Produce Commercial Gas merely to on sell for Electricity Generation.

UCG Flagship Linc was illustrating the Difficulties of getting Finance and all CNX had as "Assets" were paltry Tenements/Investments that were highly Illiquid even in the best of times.

So what else can a poor boy do than try and Rock'n'Roll with yesterday's "Enemy" d'Coal Seam Gas/Methane crowd who were High on d'Hog with Capital.

but first there were some 15cent employee options to convert by March 31st and that's where this study will continue.....
later

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dug

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Sunday, April 12, 2009 - 02:13 pm:

So here we have the recent move over the last month.
This illustrates Volume Increase 19th of Marchish bringing on a typical CNX run anticipating News.
However this Run was atypical in that No News was released within 2/3 days of the Volume signal.This time it took 10days for the news to release,the day CNX peaked and put in it's typical Reverse Open higher than Close Signal.What the news was I'll discuss later but IMHO it wasn't that Spectacular.

Anyway,[a] shows a Sequence of rises,establishing an UpTrend line but also a typical reverse Candle at 33/34 ish.That's a 25% Rise there and buyers <25 would be getting cautious seeing as No News was released in the "typical" Time Period.
But CNX closed the Gap and rocketed the next day,Breaking the most "extreme" Long term Trend Line.It went Parabolic with a Consolidation at the Breaker Rocket Upper Extremities 38+.
I say that [b] Candle was the ShakeOut of any TA Short Term traders not in on d'Plot.The Open gapped down on an Inside Day would have "encouraged" Profit Taking and was according to any TA scripture a "Good Move" to Sell.

However still no News and in the Background were some Millions of Employee Options due to expire 31st March.These had been Granted in December 2005,well before MEE's transformation into CNX.Were the same "employees" still interested/have the Money to pay the 15 cents exercise price?What's more had this Run been "engineered" to raise the exercise price of 15cents?

Well when you think of employee options don't think they're some employees perk like the Tea Lady's cut of a Bonus or Something.Employee Options are mainly for Working Directors and as such require ASX disclosure of change in Holdings of even ONE share.

Just such notices have been released now but they were exercised,off market Transferred during this period ie they Fed d'Move.
Note how the two days before the Top on actual News Release Day fed the Short Term Profit Takers Selling "feeling".Break of any straight/sharp angle/parabolic line.

I should now go into what that news actually was but it's time for a Sunday Arvo nap!!
later...tomorrow probably....

Even 'til Jaded.

Dig for the sake of it.

captain_chaza

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Sunday, April 12, 2009 - 05:00 pm:

Crikey! Dug
Please tell us what you know on the back of a postage stamp?
and
Why don't ya just write a book on What ya don't know?????

Salute

"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.

"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate."
Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893

"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897

dug

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Monday, April 13, 2009 - 09:47 am:

now,now Charles as you're d'One who insists on Never Revealing anything Practical about Any Method whatsoever,not an indicator/instrument reading ever Appears in your "scribblings",I'm not surprised that you are coming d'Snide on my musings.
A Single Example done in Depth and Angles,Chuckles NOT 2000words about some long ago,over metaphored Babble about Waves Crashing,cabin boys shivering and all about YOU as the Rock,d'HERO,d'Captain who AWES.
So stick ya oar in whenever you like but Charles you are a mere Vanity Author.

On that and your twisted metaphors what's the deal on this coming hhome with a wet sail drivel that ya mother thinks is thwe best thing ya've ever done?
Like I thought wet sails were stretched out the back of WindJammers to SLOW the ship/boat/tinny down.I certainly can't comprehend how it,a wet sail,is some speed enhancer.

Now I've never even wanted to go sailing,I even dislike Navy War Movies as BORING but when you use this Wet Sail Over'n'Over again I start to wonder if you've ever been in a bleeding Boat yourself!!
I certainly have Never Learnt very much at all about Share Trading,TA Indicators etc from you other than Momentum All Over the Shop,Declarations about ya Winners that you go all quiet about when they retrace.

I'm talking MAK,charlie.All d'Puff but no Sell Confirm.BTW MAK is a low shares on Issue Goer.

Please make any further reply in the Designated Queries and Comments sub thread.It was established for you Charlie especially flagged by d'First Word ie Query!!

Even 'til Jaded.

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rdumas

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Monday, April 13, 2009 - 10:26 am:

Hi Dug,

I like your analysis of CNX. Keep up the great work.

Whilst EW is not very good on many stocks that I have studied, individual EW patterns do emerge which appear to work rather well for trading purposes. One of these is the Zigzag pattern on retracements of a trending stock. A Zigzag is a 3 wave move where the 1st and 3rd legs often have similar size ranges.

CNX appears to be making one of these and note that the 1st and 3rd waves are reaching equality which is a good sign for a stock that may be getting ready to move up again.

"...if one tortures a dataset long enough, it will confess to anything!"

- Andrew Lo

dug

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Monday, April 13, 2009 - 12:29 pm:

Rudy,
That EW analysis reminds me of Darvas Box "stuff",another thing I make no claim to understanding of.
But you are on d'Wave Link that I'm trying to pick where CNX will go next week.Up or Down,sideways will be irrelevant so Even Chances of Glory or Egg.

However that's not what I'm trying to achieve.CNX is a share I've Traded for a number of Months,I'm pretty involved with it's Scenario and am happy to use the Trading Method of taking CNX into my repetoire,concentrating on it and not jumping around all over the Shop Day Trading.

This is how I want/have to do it.This is How I do Long Term.Short Term Trade a Chosen GOER over years.
Staying Staunch,rudy.What "value" is better than that?

Anyhow,I'm aware that CNX at this Price Level is Signalling-
a POSSIBLE Reversal

Getting out of the LT DownTrend

BUT I am not convinced Confirmed by action so far and I still read chart and theory that 35 is more to watch.

3cents is a significant percent Bargain Buy at this price to some BUT mainly I'm looking at the 10cent+Loss on the 48/55 Buyers.

Now rudy,being 20/30% Loss even on Paper is a Powerful Incentive for Selling to outdo Buying ie this COULD be d'Driver for 35 to even crack and take CNX back Down d'Drain of 20's World.IE I'm looking for DOWNTREND being Confirmed Broken FINIS.

[a] and [b] marked is discussed above.

Even 'til Jaded.

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rdumas

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Wednesday, April 15, 2009 - 11:02 am:

Hi Dug,

I note that CNX bounced within a knat's dingwhisker from the 50% retracement zone which also happened to be a previous resistance (now support) level.

Now it has retraced right on the 50% of the retracement which to me is once again a good turning point for the next leg down based on the Darvos box system.

Based on the equal range theory (only if it goes down today) I would expect the next downside target to be at $0.295.

"...if one tortures a dataset long enough, it will confess to anything!"

- Andrew Lo

dug

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Wednesday, April 15, 2009 - 11:26 am:

I've only got it retesting the 9mthish setup Resistance line at 44,rudy with the 35 more recent one to perhaps come under Fire if that breaks today.

Volume yesterday was well patchy.That's not the Volume CNX gets when the T3 Leak goes on.
Anyway,I'll have to get round to commenting on the recent Announcement involving ENB.Oh rudy,there's a scenario right there,trust me!!

but I'm off for the Arvo so later...

Even 'til Jaded.

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dug

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Saturday, April 18, 2009 - 01:46 pm:

Why in d'World if you had GunnerBe A Trader ambitions would you NOT sell at this point?
All lines point to 44 has Failed to change from Resistance to Support.CNX is hovering on d'Plunge/Retrace back to 35ish.The only significant Chart Trigger to Go is making a Lower Low ie doing sub 38 and that is the last defence against a Rout of Committed Sellers hitting Wavering Buyers ie Disaster!!with 30cents high probability.

but oh no,down d'BarBque of Warm Pig they trot out all these figures of Hope based on How Much a Coal reserve is worth AND compare Clean Coal Power Generation Capital Costs to Any and All Alternatives.
So what?Like Really how relevant is such a parade of Data when d'Pilgrims are facing an immediate 33% Loss from a 30cents Hit!!

Oh no,they argue.That's only on Paper,Crystallised into Reality only if you SELL and what if Everyone did stop loss,follow that Rule and it'll be Self Fulfilling etc etc blah til one of the true Devotees of FA[in the crude sense] starts up playing d'Down Ramper Alert Rave.These clowns ultimate insight into Market politics.

Anyway,just a Comparison of how it is giving an Opinion at d'HC barbque.

cheers.

Even 'til Jaded.

Dig for the sake of it.

dug

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Thursday, April 23, 2009 - 04:02 pm:

Quite Adverse,hey when ya babble/stream of consciousness on a share,doesn't INSTANTLY support your conclusions.

Latest from d'Barbque is that Good News can come from many Places in CNX's case.I'm,surpise surprise Suspended for Warm Pig for a week til Monday.They said it was profanity but I KNOW it was for PROFOUNDNESS!!

Anyway,News Hounds one must also keep eyes peeled for Bad News let alone NO NEWS to get your position moving from consolidation.

Volume is one way indicative.One tries to ascertain whether the Majority,particularly BigPlayer Parcels are being Accumulated or Distributed.

Now there's problems,like always in being Definite on Volume,using it as a Prime Indicator but I fail to see how a Devotee of KISS can easily dismiss Price at Volume as part of their calculation.Too simple to just Do Buy=Sell,No Use Whatsoever.
Anyone says Nay?is well a Murderer of Logic!!
or at least has no understanding of d'Ancient Wisdom put down as Dialectics

Anyway a Chart

for Volume Analysis-
a] gives the 30day countback start for 30 days Simple MA calculation in Daily Volume.
b]Is trendline of move hooked to Base.Bass hook anchors the Line and once broken can NOT be Moved.

It indicates DEFINITELY that Consolidation or d'Battle between Bull'n'Bear is On beteeen 38.5 and 44 Range with perhaps a Follow Up Resistance at 48.

Regaining the Up Line is shown at [c] as 48 being a "safe" Share COULD get on with it IF it breaks 48.

Anyway,I'm not reading CNX even breaking 44.It's for d'Go Down as a lot of Hot Air dissapates about what a Wonder Technology CNX has if only they could get a lazy $100mil+,etcetcetra.
CNX was bought long ago chiefly on the Basis IPL was in it.Gave it Kudos of May Be Practical joined with CSIRO science etc etc d'CNX story.

However d'Eyes aren't out on yesterday's IPL CEO quitting.No figuring occurring on IPL may not be a Source of future CNX funding.
Ohh Keep ya Eyes OPEN and get rid of d'Blinkers espesh rose coloured.

despair Profanity vs Profundity and ya get caught for Mis SPELLING!!!??

cheers.

ps it was in CFU i got pinged.Ended with Good Luck to d'LongTerm CFUk'd and d'Pig Cook descended.

Even 'til Jaded.

Dig for the sake of it.

rdumas

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Thursday, April 23, 2009 - 04:16 pm:

G'day Dug,

Maybe an intra day chart can give some other insights for the short term anyway.

"...if one tortures a dataset long enough, it will confess to anything!"

- Andrew Lo

dug

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Tuesday, April 28, 2009 - 03:11 pm:

I'm reckoning this is a Chart Pattern for a PLACEMENT.
It's the Narrow Range/Insignificant Volumes over the last 13 and 21 days that I'm pondering.

Along with that CNX is due for a Quarterly Finance Statement by this month's end.

Anyway Placements are Usually calculated on a 20% Discount to Month 21 Days VWAP.
I'm using the SIMPLE calc of MA of close to APPROX the VWAP.These put 8cents off 40 as a Possible Placement IF that is happening.

Now I don't know of any tweaking of some High Maths Fancy TA Indicator that can resolve this matter of Is this a Placement Pattern?
I just KNOW that CNX is in d'Frame for a Placement.

Means d'KEY thing is that Placees/They who know they're IN are told well before the Announcement sheerly for Recruitment and I figure that IF placees also have existing Holdings they sell B4 d'News to Raise the Bleeding MONEY.

Anyway because of this musing,I'm not Holding just Watching Confirmation by
a]Checking the soon release of that Quarterly
and b]Not buying under 44 Significant Break Out.

I'll review IF CNX goes sub 35 but has 30 Support.

cheers
PS a'n'b on chart show the MA day starts.
c is secondary resistance to Main 44.

Even 'til Jaded.

Dig for the sake of it.

dug

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Thursday, May 07, 2009 - 10:35 am:

a] is an example of what I meant about using Volume,the Increase in Volume as a "indicator" to BUY.Particularly with CNX this works.Don't know what I'm talking about?It's more fully explained in some of the previous posts in this Thread.

Did I trade this?No,in fact I have the excuse that [a] Day the 30th April was my 26th Wedding Anniversary so Excuse Me,hey? d'Joke about that particular date is that it is also marked as the date Hitler married Eva Braun down d'Bunker! Next day they did d'Big Leap,Folie a Deux.

Anyway,not only note the peaking evening star thingy signifying Trend/Run end but aren't we seeing a Development of Double Top too?
This needs Confirmation by Breaking 38 Support and IF you are Pollyanna Orientated[ie see d'glass half full for preference]then you may see a Cup'n'Handle maybe.

Mainly I'm using that simple trend line douver to monitor the Future Possibilities.I don't hold CNX at the moment.I see no clear possibilities for Going Long.

Anyway,I hope new member Immune is reading this.and it'd be a "good thing" Dolphin if you contributed something here too.AfterAll I saw last week that you were on to this too.

Anyway,done me duty.
cheers.

Even 'til Jaded.

Dig for the sake of it.

hershy

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Saturday, May 09, 2009 - 05:13 pm:

Hi Duggie,
Haven't addressed you for a while. Good analysis Dug; very interesting commentary. The should be much more of this and a lot less of maritime bluster. Can't fully follow all your arguments (I have a short attention span these days) but if I understand correctly you have a negative bias on this security. You may well be and probably are right about insider knowledge and yet a look at a weekly chart shows very bullish
attitudes at work. And let's not forget that a double top in an uptrend often has very limited effect and creates a cup out of a deep chalice - as this chart shows. There is no way that a breakout here could be viewed with anything other than gay abandon; not that there is anything wrong with that. That would give you the increased volume you are looking for. Whether the price action to this point has been manipulated or not, hence forth it will be trader emotion that will control the outcome. Close to 3 and a half mil shares for shares trading on Friday in the low fifties is not too bad.
This chart is not looking too shabby at all. Nice separation of short and long term moving averages.
Love your work Duggie.
Oh, and good comments from D'Artagnan too !

(Message edited by Hershy on May 09, 2009)

I do it doji style !

http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/

dug

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Sunday, May 10, 2009 - 01:51 pm:

Greetings chocolate bar aka Hershy.
Glad you appreciate my efforts to play d'Ball.
So you reckon I'm negative bias on CNX and you herald by a weekly chart Great Things COULD be on the Up'n'Up.
Well a Year Weekly may temper your enthusiasm and give you some idea for my caution.

Now a Year is pretty much the Life of the CNX "sprouted" from d'Ex MEE so a year is I reckon as Long Term as you have to go.
So what do those Fibionnacci,the maths system of Vegetables indicate,Chocco?A Struggle at established LT Resistance of 50 centsish.Simple,hey?Don't you agree that one should never BUY at Resistance?Ain't that Valid Negative Bias?

Then I got all this "stuff" that's real sweet FA but I'm not up to expounding today on that.Let's call it my "secret" weapon.Yeah Armed and Dangerous I be,Follow no self proclaimed Captains,ain't no Team Player.Suppose it's a Character Fault,hey?

Anyway,I'm watching Hershy,your attempts to reason strictly TA with d'Leader of d'Pack.Noted that as soon as you showed Comp Progress d'Great One HAD to claim credit for Teaching Ya EVERY Thing ya know.Is it some religious thing,Hershy that you take guff from such an obvious clown?

Hershy,MAKE WAVES not just be content to EW about on 'em.

regards.

Even 'til Jaded.

Dig for the sake of it.

dug

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Monday, May 11, 2009 - 10:22 am:

OK,bought the CFE Open so here's some Reasons why I think that CNX is at the Best it can get,for now.

a]IT"S GOT INSUFFICIENT CAPITAL FOR IT"S ENTERPRISE.

Lot of people,who don't follow TA whatsoever take one look at the CSIRO majority ShareHolding and think CNX has some Edge for success.
However,I still seek an Example of a Share that actually got anywhere by having CSIRO involvement.
OTHER THAN CSL which I consider a exception in CSIRO Boffinness,a look at Technology Shares the CSIRO has been involved with as a Major Shareholder or even Developer gives me a List of these Examples-PHK,CFU.

I say the problem,Pilgrims is in the CSIRO can NOT contribute expansion Capital.In fact it's Chartered,rules it lives by Prohibit direct Cash Injection by Placements,Rights whatever.CSIRO holdings are what's called in d'REAL SHAREMARKET WORLD an OVERHANG but seeing as you all seem to prefer some Garbage about a Sail is a Sail as some Brilliant Insight worthy of Leadership Qualities?

well best I get back to it,hey?

Even 'til Jaded.

Dig for the sake of it.

dug

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Monday, May 11, 2009 - 12:09 pm:

well that was quick.Buy the Open CFE and out by Midday.In fact half past 10.No Guts No Glory but I reckon Depth Watching to a Tight Plan,I'm wrong/out IF this happens or not,is another way to Go.
Anyway,this is the CNX thread and we have today price right in that weekly chart above Zone of Resistance 55/58.It's the Cup'n'Handle hey TA ONLYers?
There's also been some Fresh Meat bought to the Table by a "Tip Sheet"/Newspaper Article but don't want to go into that at d'Mo.
Have a look at some of the WHY's for CNX being on d'Up'n'Up.It recently "Partnered" with a mob coded ENB.Check out ENB's chart.Check out it's story.I'll get back to ya on my reading/opinion later.

Even 'til Jaded.

Dig for the sake of it.

dug

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Tuesday, May 12, 2009 - 01:25 pm:

Yes this is the CNX-a Study in Dynamics thread.I reckon the Dynamic at this time we are observing is a Set Up for a Placement.Are Placements and their effects on Share Prices only of interest to "duds"?

Anyway,standard procedure in Placements is to shove 'em with Sophisticated Investors at a discount of ~20% to the previous month's VWAP.A Month of Trading Days is 21 not 30.
We haven't got VWAP in the IC Programme so I use Simple Moving Average do get d'Gist.[a] marks day1 of 21 count.

So i reckon there's going to be a Placement Announce CNX soon,probably by Friday but likely in the next 10 days.Current guesstimate is 35centsish and last significant placement was at 40cents[with IPL getting a chunk at 20cents]so 35 is well,in d'money pretty backable.

I "predict" so because of my Study of the Dynamic of this particular share

Now a share can only go Up/Down/Sideways.I don't think it's particularly being Bear or Bull.Surely any analysis even under KISS has an Emphasis equally on KEEP as it has on Simple and ya just have to concentrate on that STUPID proviso and,well,we have constant reminders of d'Stupid here,courtesy of....

Hershy,you still hanging out with Nick Radge?Remember when he came to IC for less than a week must be years ago now?

regards,chocolate bar.

Even 'til Jaded.

Dig for the sake of it.

hershy

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Sunday, May 24, 2009 - 09:51 am:

Hey Duggie,
CNX has corrected around 50 % since it's high of May 11. Too deep to be a cup'n handle but it did not do too much damage. Nice wedge setup which seems eminently tradeable to wedge but with caution as an ascending wedge is more likely to break down than out. But if it does break out, it is likely to be on this swing. A conditional entry @ .49 with a stop loss @ .44 (risk of 5 cents) would show a target around 58 cents.

Not the best reward/risk ratio, but seems a safe trade.

I do it doji style !

http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/

dug

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Sunday, May 24, 2009 - 12:01 pm:

Still think a Placement is very much on the cards,Hershy that will negate any TA.

CNX has been on Roadshow,had several articles done on it,has Tip Sheets doing the Speculative Buy recommend,has hinted that it can run with the Coal Seam Crowd[Arrow/Shell/BG/Origin etc],connected up with some WA less than $20mil Market Cap Gunner make a Power Station crowd and,in general has been doing d'We're Viable if only we had some hundred$$$ of Million$$.

See,Hershy CNX can't just do a couple of million buck placement.It requires,even according to them
a]A Billion$$ to do Ammonia extract for IPL
b]Half a Billion$$ to do a Power Station
c]About 100 mil$$ to just produce the Syngas to supply to another Entity's Power Station.

They're not going to get such do$h from a Placement.They're going to have to Issue new Shares.
At say 40cents Rights Issue a hell of a lot of New Shares on top of the already 400 mil of shares currently on Issue.

Now the Coal Seam Crowd doing the Gladstone Set Ups are highly unlikely to finance CNX.
CNX has NO Real Assets on it's books to Sell to Finance even a Hundred Million Gas Plant,to even make a decent contribution.
There's talk of India being interested but it's highly unlikely that they will finance a Half Billion$$ leaving CNX rolling in Cream.I reckon the Indians MAY take CNX as Consultants but there won't be much "Chop" in that.Just "Boffin Glory" for d'CSIRO.

So overall CNX is just going to whinge for Government Support.Take that looooong road.Energy concentrated on Lobbying to provide finance.Join d'Queue where any success will be in less than $10 mil handouts over 5 years.

but first,I figure there'll be a Placement for "seed money" and perhaps some Corporate Move in a year to divest all those previously issued MEE shares,some 2/300 mil of the 400mil Current.

But that's long way off,bleeding FA stuff,hey Hershy?
but it's all background for the short term,say Current Month's Action,that has me waiting more on a sub 40 move rather than a swinging 58.

cheers.

Even 'til Jaded.

Dig for the sake of it.

dug

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Sunday, May 24, 2009 - 12:56 pm:

If you reckon the c&h is finis,Hershy,how about a Double Top?
Basing it on Volume I see [a] as a parameter.Yeah it got broken but the first side was on News and I forget what happened for the second leg other than all this cup stuff hitting d'BarBque targeting even 90 cents.

Anyway,note also the drop under the 21 day Simple[a measure of monthly VWAP],Trend Line Break and my Placement "Prediction".
30's by the end of month/Mid June [Tax Loss Season] is the Risk.
cheers

Even 'til Jaded.

Dig for the sake of it.

hershy

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Monday, May 25, 2009 - 06:26 am:

Unless I am mixing up thread Isee to recall your comments in an earlier post that insider trading by all and sundry could/would/should account for the continued demand of CNX.
You may be right, I may be crazy but would insider trading NOT disseminate among the above mentioned sundry the hint of a forthcoming issue, which by the way Duggie does make perfect sense?

I do it doji style !

http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/

dug

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Monday, May 25, 2009 - 10:32 am:

hershy wrote on Monday, May 25, 2009 - 06:26 am:
that insider trading by all and sundry could/would/should account for the continued demand of CNX.

Insider Trading "explains" the RUNS before News Announcements NOT the continued Demand.Volume is "excessive" about 3 days before News and there is usually a Reversal Candle on actual news day because there can be say a 30% Run happened up til then.
Can you "read" d'difference?

Now the last example was starting April 30th.An interesting and telling point about the March/April 25/55 run was that there were some 15 million "Employee Options" maturing on 31 March at 15 cents.These were mostly Directors options.

However they dated back to December 2005.In 2005 CNX was MEE and only had mere Uranium Tenements/Some 10% interest in a Canadian Mine and some other triffling exploring ie the Directors scoring them had done NOTHING re CNX.Mere Time Servers,hung over from MEE.

Anyhow,they did announce they Sold some on Market to finance their Options however MOST of the Options were "divested" by OFF Market Transfer supposedly to non controlled entities.Hershy,see how these COULD have been sold into that run?

There's more of what I reckon but it seems that if I don't post some obscure indicator twiddled and tweaked off the default settings to PROVE my readings then I am some crazy,conspiracy theorist.Irrelevant.

Hershy,there are groups of Traders in contact with each other,picking shares to Run and Profit.They are Organised.They "Pool" their Money and Hit on a Day and Run on a Profit.Didn't I see you mention such an Organised Effort recently?

It's Legal or at least Not Prosecuteable.
Forums,other than this one,are the Venue of THEY!!

Even 'til Jaded.

Dig for the sake of it.

dug

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Monday, May 25, 2009 - 11:07 am:

Here's the chart of the Company that CNX has as it's Great White Hope.EneAbba.

[a] marks announcement day of the CNX connection.

Interestingly a month or so earlier CNX announced they were leaving WA to move head office to Qld.They paid out a MILLION$$$ as Redundancies.Then they sign up with this Mob.Not very good planning,agree?Or was it just a handy method to give out a Million Buck$$$ to d'Tea Lady?

This ENB is a 12million Market Cap company trying to horn in on some $4 BILLION PORT redevolopment.They hold some paper work Approvals and are figuring on being able to Trump all current BigBoy Power Companies to get IN.
Good Luck,hey?

Even 'til Jaded.

Dig for the sake of it.

dug

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Wednesday, June 03, 2009 - 11:30 am:

Trading Halt for significant Capital Raising.

Rough Calc of Trading Month VWAP is 50 cents.See 21 day count back for Range thru this period.
[a] Gap was "caused" by Bell Potter Recommendation being released.

I estimate Placement/Rights Issue combined at a price of at least 40 cents is to be announced.It'll be "interesting" to see if it's Pro Rata or every Holder gets a Fixed Number of shares.Other thing will be the Closing Date for eligibility.

but instead of making assumptions,I'll wait til it's actually laid out by Management.

Even 'til Jaded.

Dig for the sake of it.