STUFF that may be of interest

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archer

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Friday, April 24, 2009 - 11:07 am:

BGD broke on Monday but had 2 days of low vol with no signal
from the market depth
Monday and Tuesday were buyers coming off the side and
grabbing a few more shares
Wednesday morn the depth really ballooned-this is just a
signal to traders watching the stock
Its saying "hey guys the moves about to start,we need some
liquidity so jump aboard and lets play"
Short term i had no problems (as breaks from falling wedges
can be great fun)but i was also looking at a longer time
frame and thats why i asked skip the question
Ive only ever seen a volume pattern this extreme once before
1999 Triton resources trading around 9-10 cents when vol
really took off.I grabbed some expecting the break
Vol kept expanding but the stock kept trading in the 10-11c
range
After a couple of weeks i was getting frustrated when an old
traders voice in my head said
"BE VERY WARY WHEN A RISE IN VOL IS NOT ACCOMPANIED BY RISING PRICE"
I got out,the pattern continued for about 2-3 months by
which time the entire shares on issue had changed hands
and price never moved outside the 10-11.5 range
After that it was all downhill followed by suspension
The stock eventually became Avon resource suspended again
and in this incarnation is CUO copperco which is currently suspended again
bgd

archer

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Friday, April 24, 2009 - 11:32 am:

PDZ broke late last week with a big rise in vol but i knew
there was a large holder who wanted out(about 3 mil shares)
I picked it for the comp thinking this guy would know
what he was doing and drip feed his shares into a rising
price and therefore generating more interest
as the chart shows minimal resistance between here and
the 200 dma
I was WRONG-this guy is either extremely amateur or needed
cash desperately and just kept slamming every bid at 11-12
If my tape read is correct he finished selling wednesday
but he has temporarily killed off interest in the stock
pdz

elisabeth

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Friday, April 24, 2009 - 07:26 pm:

Hi Archer, interesting posts re volume.

Below are examples of 2 further types of volume spikes in the daily chart of DYL. Here’s the whole pic, but it’s squishy due to width restriction for pics, so detail pics further down

DYL dly

NO FOLLOW THROUGH:
In September last year DYL had a ST trend break on huge volume – there was only a speeding ticket that day (standard “know nothing” response) – ie, no news (as there was yesterday). The low on the day of the big vol was the 5th touch of the base line that had been forming for a couple of months. So, high volume and price moved significantly, ST trend line broken – entry signal.

The following day notification was posted that PDN had bought 44.7 mill shares the day before, increasing their stake from 15.3% to 19.3%. Investors and punters were less than impressed - DYL opened on the high from the previous day and didn’t see that level again until yesterday.

That base line saw more interesting action toward the end in that it had 3 intra-day breaks before crashing downwards.

Sept

TOO MUCH TOO SOON:
And so to yesterday – DYL put on over 80% in one day. This time on news of uranium reserves in Africa. This sort of huge one day rise rules DYL out of interest for me now until it’s retraced/consolidated.

However...that gap down there – two scenarios come to mind:
1. most (but not all) gaps get filled eventually
2. that’s a breakaway, perhaps next week will see a mid-rise measuring gap, and then a final climatic gap

Price has come back to 25c today on fair volume – anything is possible!

DYL yesterday

(Yes, I was lucky enough to trade DYL – was very happy with 39% on my trade and my target order was hit - and watched with incredulity as the price just climbed higher and higher – well, I wasn’t watching, I was at work and peeking when possible – I’d like to think if I was at home I would have executed the perfect trade with ever climbing stops, but I know myself better. Am still happy with my 39%!)

captain_chaza

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Friday, April 24, 2009 - 07:39 pm:

They are all Could have beens IMHO

Nobody mentions them at the time of execution as there is a more than a Twenty to One FAILURE RATE

Good luck with the Could have beens and Should have dones

Test it in real time and you will discover what I mean

NB: There is "Doing" and Then there is "Doing"

They are miles apart!
and then
The Size of the investment makes it even Further Apart

Salute and Gods' speed

(Message edited by Captain_Chaza on April 24, 2009)

"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.

"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate."
Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893

"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897

elisabeth

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Friday, April 24, 2009 - 08:09 pm:

Exactly what I was saying, CC, I know myself better. I think I would have been out at around the same price had I been watching. But, I don't feel as though I've failed in this trade. I most certainly know the feeling of a failed trade! Only mentioned the trade as a sideline/declaration - the post was about volume behaviour.

Elisabeth

chingas

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Friday, April 24, 2009 - 10:40 pm:

captain_chaza wrote on Friday, April 24, 2009 - 07:39 pm:
They are all Could have beens IMHO

Nobody mentions them at the time of execution as there is a more than a Twenty to One FAILURE RATE

Good luck with the Could have beens and Should have dones

Test it in real time and you will discover what I mean

NB: There is "Doing" and Then there is "Doing"

They are miles apart!
and then
The Size of the investment makes it even Further Apart

my little deckscrubber friend, although I decidede for the good of other posters to delete my message to you the other night, it seems you recieved it anyway. Have another read "I bet you didn't buy any IMI ready for tomorrow's run" or words to that effect was what I said. Did you watch IMI yesterday morning you pathetic little deckscrubber? Don't worry deckscrubber_chazza, you go back to winning paper trading tournaments - i'll stick to taking 50%++ profits in less than 24 hours. Please ensure you check the price IMI was the day I posted and what it reached the following day. Then please post your comments my little deckscrubber friend.

p.s I heard it was you who liked their men without teeth?

(Message edited by chingas on April 24, 2009)

dug

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Saturday, April 25, 2009 - 12:05 pm:

Some stuff on Depth Watching I want to share my thoughts on.

Capping-Capping is the systematic Repression of an Uptrend proportedly by Institutional "Big Boys".It's considered by Novice Pilgrims to Mammon as a "Dirty Trick" and being able to "Spot It" gives d'Novice some gold star/kudos at least down d'Barbque of Warm Pig.

Anyhow,All Depth Watching Activity is disparaged by our resident Big Boy henceforth to be dubbed Mr NO aka d'Nameless One who persists in shutting down any threads on topics he's proclaimed as touching on his Top Secret.Some drivel like that.Some Glory Boy shot at self proclaimed Order.

Now I want to propose a dialectic of this so called Capping.

What are you looking for when you search out a Sign of Capping?
Well lord knows when you see one line posts that XYZ is being Capped.No explanation.Just BillyBoy was d'First to Pronounce Capping Today and then wafts off doing some I'm a Tooth Fairy to share that "Telling" point with ya all Act.

Now what has Billy seen?
A large Order on the ASK/Sell Side and Billy makes the Assumption that it is FALSE.Going to Disappear IF Price hits it.
Or perhaps more Sophisticatedly that the Large Ask is there to absorb today's Buying Strength ie wants to be filled.

Billy also has the Assumption that only someone Diabolical would stop this share from Rising into d'Stratosphere.It has to be some Plot and I Billy can see thru mere BigBoy Plots to drive Price Down so they can Accumulate More and Starve me BillyBoy of d'Thrill of Being RIGHT!!!!

sorry for going into a Rave.We've all SEEN It.Like Disappearing Bids and Asks but that is beyond d'POINT of WHY one Depth Watches[along with Curse of Sales].

I do it to follow what Big Money is doing with Shares that I hold.I know Depth doesn't show Definitively this aspect.Like DURHHHH Not all action is "foretold" by a Bleeding Depth Screen.
but punk thinking like that is Negated by also watching d'Course/CURSE of Sales/SAILS!!

despair,some people insist on d'Two Dimensional Cut Out.All Buyers meet Sellers so d'Depth Board is useless.Geezus and these types of WannaBe Heroes are satisfied by deseminating this as "advice"/even Comment Satisfactory for the average person/fellow Pilgrim to Mammon.

Sorry I'm getting way off track.Doing what mr no is desiring.
chingas,take it from me you are not ALLOWED to dispute mr NO.He's a very slippery slope.Well known for posts that declared that he's prepared to apologise but he's not Sorry he'll just weedle and windle seem to crawl but really he's RIGHT and all brave'n'loyal should get it!!

chingas-Colin hands out Suspension like All Moderators with out doing History Research.Colin doesn't want to JUDGE he just wants to Douse.Do you see how No does it?

remember this quote by Zelman Cowen
I hear what you SAY
but I SEE what you do.
Zelman was a Mossad Agent too.

anyway,I'm off in a multidude of ways.
Dig d'Gap chat,elizabeth?

Even 'til Jaded.

Dig for the sake of it.

captain_chaza

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Saturday, April 25, 2009 - 03:02 pm:

Ahoy Chingas

I am done with you!
and I have taken you off my Xmas card list

I won't be opening up any more of your posts so feel free to throw as much fertilizer around as you like
(Into the wind is my preference)

RIP

gdd3

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Monday, April 27, 2009 - 04:29 pm:

Dug...(Our resident "Market Depth Activity" Guru)...or any other M/D followers! I have a question to ask.

Can anyone give an explanation/view of the following activity that I have noticed a few times but particularly in the trading activity of BTR thats been going on for most of the day so far?

The "strange" activity started about 2-1/2hrs ago(since 12:15:40) when the M/D was showing 1 Buyer at 26c(2530vol) and 1 seller at 27c(15370vol) and since then there has been only one buyer buying a small lot(66 or 67) exactly every 1 minute at the offer price of 27c(just look at a 1 or 2 minute chart to see the regularity). Once a lot(66 or 67) goes through and about 20secs later a second buyer is registered on the buy side at 26c, then another 20secs goes by and this small lot buyer amends his buy price to 26.5c(that is he becomes the only buyer on that line with still the same seller at 27c); a further 20secs later he hits the offer at 27c for his small lot of 66 or 67 and then starts the whole process over again.

For the last 2 1/2+ hrs no other buyer/seller has taken any participation and the only seller at 27c has had his initial lot(of 15370) completely filled at 66 at a time. And now, as I'm writing this, the "accumulation" buyer has moved onto the next line of sellers(actually again only 1 seller at 27.5c with 32000.vol) and continuing the same process...every minute!

If this is simply a broker's "automated" process of accumulating shares why would this "buyer" go thru all the trouble of joining the buyers bid price for 20secs then amending his bid the next line up only to hit the offer price a further 20secs later over a period of now 3hrs when he could have just bought the relatively small parcel of initially 15370(in $ terms)in one hit and most likely not caused any concern to other prospective participants?

Any ideas Dug or others?

Dolphin

P.S. Arh! just about to post this and a 3rd party came in and sold 50000 at market hitting the temporary bid at 26.5c (lot of 66) and in doing so took out the only buyer at 26c(2630) and part of the next buyer at 25c. Not to worry, our little? "accumulation" buyer has just amended his program to join(temporarily)the buyer at 25c before amending his bid to 26c(for 20secs) B4 again hitting the new seller at 27c...."and the beat goes on!"

dug

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Tuesday, April 28, 2009 - 11:05 am:

Well done on setting out all the Signs of Bot/Algae Trading,dolphin.Pity you couldn't add some of your OWN Conclusions because Market Depth Watching is for those interested in the Could It Bees in their process of Decision Making.

What COULD BE happening is Hinted in your line-

gdd3 wrote on Monday, April 27, 2009 - 04:29 pm:
For the last 2 1/2+ hrs no other buyer/seller has taken any participation and the only seller at 27c has had his initial lot(of 15370) completely filled at 66 at a time.

Churning,gdd3.Flickering the tape to those who REFUSE to check a Shares Course/Curse of Sales.

Happy Trading.

Even 'til Jaded.

Dig for the sake of it.

dug

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Tuesday, April 28, 2009 - 12:08 pm:

Anyone else got their Broker Out because of Sydney Power Failures?
Glad not to be a Day Trader/Scalper whatever when such Cut Outs can come on Down beyond ya control.

cheers.

Even 'til Jaded.

Dig for the sake of it.

gdd3

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Tuesday, April 28, 2009 - 01:00 pm:

Thanks Dug for reminding of the reference to Bot/Algae trading...I must go back via the IC seach engine to RE_READ all that you and others have said on the subject in the past.

Interestingly, no such action(so far) this morning in BTR; maybe thats because of the "Broker-Out" you refer to in your next posting. And, yep my broker(with the Iress platform) is only "running" on "back-up" battery power... had to resort back to the "old" trading procedure(via broker calling) to track and place trades.

Have a good one!

Dolphin

dug

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Tuesday, April 28, 2009 - 01:55 pm:

No need to wade thru the IC Search to bone up on Algorithmic Trading aka Bot/Algae/ Small Parcel Diddling.

All you have to Realise is that EXISTS.
It's not bleeding Brokers working the Open and Close or the other suggestion that it's Index Funds reweighting their positions or someDING to do with Damn CFD's.

It's PURELY and SIMPLY a Method of Share Trading only recently Implemented into Truly Existing.Something NEW under d'Sun we have to DEAL With.

Once that's got thru ya Blinders,Gdd3.Then you start to observe HOW it works on a particular Share you Hold at this Point in TIME.As always that's a Could it be THIS or THAT proposition that hopefully you can apply some Dialectic Thinking to.
Dialectic Thinking is NOT Enhanced by THWARTS put in by "They who think they have Made It" KnowAll characters,Dolphin.

Basic DIY Thinking requires Humbleness,TRUE Revelation Seekers and,well,No Names but I hope ya get d'Gist on WHO should be Ignored.

4Happy trading.

Even 'til Jaded.

Dig for the sake of it.

resillent1

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Tuesday, April 28, 2009 - 03:03 pm:

Dug

Payback time for making me read that volume paper dribble.

This is an Australian one on “Algorithmic Trade Execution and Market Impact”

Just skip the big calculations – you will still get the general drift.

http://www.ballarat.edu.au/ard/itms/CIAO/IWIF/iwif1papers/CogginsLimLoIWIF1.pdf

The majority of algorithmic trading is just trying to get large orders through at the average trading price over an extended period. Because the are reflective (ie they become part of the average they are trying to obtain) the orders get drip fed – they actually are trying not to distort the market rather than distort it. You will generally find that the greater the liquidity in addition to the bot order the bigger the drips normally become.

Of course some people will be using ASX’s Algorithmic Trade Execution Interface to try and obtain an edge through the transaction process rather than just chasing the VWAP. No different really than what everybody else is trying to do when they develop any trading system. Some systems are good some are bad – depends on how good the programmer is and how robust the guiding parameters are.

dug

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Friday, May 01, 2009 - 01:24 pm:

Geez I don't want to be accused of Taking Over this Thread but if ya want to Learn about Algo Trading aka Algae and it's Use by BIG Boys to Manipulate and Distort,check out today's DYE Course of Sales.

Six of One and Half a Dozen of the OTHER.

In the Background a Placement at 90 cents is playing,
Trading today seems to indicate that all the Pilgrims,retail have been wiped off the floor into Spectators
and well,in short and to be brief I reckon d'Algae is Floating to distort the tape of Overseas Buyers.

Is it so that it'd be a pretty dedicated OS investor who would be able to easily track Aust Curse Of Sales Data?

or would they be like Ozzies and think what a Waste of Time?

cheers.

Even 'til Jaded.

Dig for the sake of it.

archer

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Saturday, May 09, 2009 - 09:44 am:

Nice test of the breakout
pdz

archer

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Saturday, May 09, 2009 - 09:47 am:

Consolidating for a run to the 200 dma???
bgd

archer

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Saturday, May 09, 2009 - 09:53 am:

Thanks for the comments Elisabeth
Dyl chart is similar
dyl

archer

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Saturday, May 09, 2009 - 10:06 am:

2 more charts with a similarly LARGE increase in vol
fml

But notice the OBV heading in different directions
fml

dug

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Saturday, May 09, 2009 - 11:50 am:

Archer,can I ask you to help me with this one?

I don't HOLD it.Ain't here to hint some skite about How Great I Art.I've simply identified CFE as a good possibility.As usual my "winnowing" is to be based on What it does,some consideration of it's Share Register,it's Cash Flow Position and all round What it is actually Doing not just it's Gunner Do.NONE of this has been done by me yet.That's my weekend Task.

I realise you,Archer aren't so much into these FA aspects of mine.That's why I'm asking you to help.Round out my Visions so to speak.

Anyhow,I'll get around this week to setting up a Distinct Thread for CFE,Cape Lambert Iron Ore Ltd.I prefer to put the Company Name in Thread Titles.Adds Clarity.Hope to have you,Archer in particular,adding some constructive comments[d'CCs]to this.

regards,
jr

Even 'til Jaded.

Dig for the sake of it.

archer

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Friday, May 15, 2009 - 10:44 am:

Oooooh so close
bgd

archer

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Friday, May 15, 2009 - 03:05 pm:

Dug
Re CFE
Its a stock that,well to put it simply
"IT DOES NOT COMPUTE" as far as my trading style goes
When you look at its history its never really trended
in either direction for more than a few months,it has very
deep retracements and another thing that stands out,when
it gets into blue sky its time to sell
Its just one of those stocks that doesn,t work for me
I look at the chart and cant make head nor tail of it

dug

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Saturday, May 16, 2009 - 05:13 pm:

Thanks for some FeedBack,Archer especially that it wasn't just a one liner.
yeah,CFE doesn't tick too many of my boxes,either.The African Involvement Mining especially sours.
I'm just thinking that the Copper Mine outside Mt Isa may make it more legit.Get some solid backing happening.What I've read about CopperCo ain't too heartening,though.Seems it tried to TakeOver some Mining Investment mob with undisclosed dirty Books.
Anyway,I'll waffle about that in CFE thread.
Tell me Archer,how did that Silver Extraction New Tech Share you got onto with karragarra years ago end up?Forgotten it's name so couldn't DIY or M 4meself.

Always look forward to your posts,Archer.Remember that you Won old Hilarius's Contest along with julles applying to be ya typist [so she could get Real Worthwhile "Tips"]REALLY shoved it up d'Nose of d'DRAG.

but best to "skip" that,hey

Even 'til Jaded.

Dig for the sake of it.

archer

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Sunday, May 24, 2009 - 06:17 pm:

EMM it was dug
It was doing okay til the crash and got hammered like
everything else
Speaking of crashes this might be setting up for a
"SELL IN MAY AND GO AWAY'
60 day rally from low to the 200dma

archer

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Tuesday, June 02, 2009 - 12:16 pm:

ZOOM ZOOM

FML looks like it wants to "POP"
fml

Dug-you may wanna check out the funnymentals on this one
Vol is picking up markedly
kor

dug

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Wednesday, June 03, 2009 - 02:43 pm:

archer,
funnymentals i like so far found is-
a] quite a low shares on issue for a 5 cent share
b]that they do 3 rd party exploring rather than quarterly placements for overhead expenses

c]MOST of All that they are now into Northern Territory Fertilized "Discovery",proximity much closer to the Darwin Port than that "other one".

So KOR blimey they may be onto a Run IF the Fertilizer Sector re-ignites.With limited shares on Issue may well not get caught in the 10/12 cent Day Trader Tangle too.

However last Cash Flow Note showed Cash in Bank as LESS than Quarterly Cash Burn.

cheers.

Even 'til Jaded.

Dig for the sake of it.

nicola

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Wednesday, June 03, 2009 - 04:17 pm:

could not sell SOM online today, Wednesday 3rd June.
Could only sell it through a verbal order with the broker.
Would anyone know the reason(s) for this?

archer

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Thursday, June 04, 2009 - 10:44 am:

Snap,crackle,"POP" on HUGE vol
fml

archer

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Thursday, June 04, 2009 - 11:01 am:

Xao resistance here indicates possibility of a 5th down

xao

archer

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Wednesday, July 22, 2009 - 04:06 pm:

KORickey Dug
you were right about the 10c mark-gapped right thru it and
ya get 1 for 1 shares free in the uranium spinoff co (;->
kor

archer

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Thursday, August 06, 2009 - 02:25 pm:

Shareholders of KOR will receive 1.33 shares in Uranium aust
for every KOR share held free
kor

archer

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Thursday, August 06, 2009 - 02:29 pm:

BUR increasing volume
bur

archer

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Tuesday, August 11, 2009 - 02:37 pm:

This looks like the start of a big bull with another record vol today
pio

archer

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Thursday, August 20, 2009 - 12:43 pm:

PIO is enjoying a nice 80% kick today to start of its bull
trend compliments of some outstanding drill results

archer

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Thursday, August 20, 2009 - 05:04 pm:

Heres another that i like
M/C 8.5 mil
5.5 mil cash
37 mil shares in PAX Geothermal which is a nice lookin chart
Market val over 5 mil
wcp

archer

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Saturday, August 22, 2009 - 11:12 am:

Heres the chart for PAX
pax

OBV for PIO going into orbit
pio

palace

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Saturday, August 22, 2009 - 01:37 pm:

hi archer

i like the look of the chart for PAX ,had one eye on it

friday afternoon ,but got side tracked by the crumbling market

as a whole ,are you on?

cheers

mick

C:\Documents and Settings\Michael\Desktop\flying pig.gif

archer

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Saturday, August 22, 2009 - 07:06 pm:

G'day Mick
Good to have some company here(;->
Directly only a very small trading position as it looked
like it wanted to break but a break would also show a nice
5 waves pattern
This is a stock that doesn't like gaps and with a high
probability of a gap up on monday it may mark a short term
high
It may double top with the 23 or 26c highs and correct for
a few months down to a rising 200dma and may be a nice spot
for a wave 3 trade
The trend is now 8 months old but doesn't look tired with
the last 6 weeks bringing in substantially higher volume

Indirectly a much larger position thru WCP which im
accumulating at 3.7-3.9 c
At that price their market cap is 8.5 mil
They own 37.5 mil shares in PAX.Value = almost 8 mil
They have 5.5 mil in cash and are actively looking for
opportunities

Cheers
--Siggy---

archer

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Monday, August 24, 2009 - 02:37 pm:

I was asleep at the wheel on these 2 but its easy to see
why i had them in the same watchlist as most of the above
srz

archer

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Thursday, August 27, 2009 - 01:28 pm:

Heres another that looks exciting-HUGE buying here at lows
mro

stampy

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Thursday, August 27, 2009 - 10:11 pm:

Hi Archer

Have been reading your posts and trying to learn a few things.

1/ Just a quick question ,do you target low priced stocks for the beta weight or is it just a factor of your stock screens?

2/ If your inclined to answer,your posts regarding time frame of 90 days on a couple of stock lately.. was that including the weekends ??what would you recommend reading in regard to timing?? the breakouts have been very close to yor posts.

Thanks and regards
Stampy

archer

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Friday, August 28, 2009 - 11:40 am:

Hi stampy
Happy to answer any qs as best i can-dont have many secrets
I target these stocks simply for the exciting moves they
can generate
The larger stock bottoming patterns are being covered very
well by the other guys here
GDD,Hershey,Peterloh and others are doing a great job at showing bottom patterns in those stocks and im basically
trying to do the same thing with the cheapies
The thing i like about these is that the bottom patterns tend to play out VERY close to the lows in percentage terms
because they are easier to manipulate by those accumulating
These patterns like any patterns,can fail and the failure
can be spectacular in the cheapies but as you can see in
the charts above its nowhere near the absurd 20-1 failure
rate some one mentioned above
In regard to your 2nd question
I can't recommend reading material as i've never read a
trading book
Most of what i've learnt came from traders who where
heavily influenced by Ganns work
Bill Mclaren who has a subscription site that i still sign
up for every now and then for a month as a refresher used
to happily teach anyone free of charge back in the early-
mid 90s via a basic website until asic shut him down-made
him get a licsense and charge for services
His knowledge of patterns is awesome
Bryce Gilmore was another i learnt plenty from and went on
to write a few books of his own about the geometry of the
markets but there would be much esoteric stuff in those
books and not recommended for beginners
As for cycles any mention i make will always be in calendar
days
Gann saw the year as 360 degrees of time and used 1/8th
increments e.g 45,90,135,180,225,270,315,360 degrees that
equate to roughly those same figures in calendar days
30 deg and multiples of are also useful
Each stock has its own cycles
I dont know how much experience you have Stampy but if i
were to recommend it would be to learn patterns first and
once you can trade successfully then play around with cycles
With some stocks cycles stand out and others just dont show
anything but play with CFU.note the date of the highs and
count forward in 30 day increments and see how many times
those increments start a reaction but remember like all T/A
its not an exact science.
A couple a days plus or minus is the norm

gdd3

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Friday, August 28, 2009 - 01:47 pm:

Archer....I'm now getting interested in 'your' PAX as she's currently right back at good S/T support and potentially also in a good T.A.Z setup area(see chart below). I guess my only 'uncomfortable' thing I see about stocks like PAX is their illiquidity(i.e...No. of market participants)...bit too thinly traded for my liking. This can work wonders(% gains) when things are moving in the right direction but not so good when the tide turns and you want to get out!

Anyway, at the least she is on my Weekly Comp Short List(with your permission) for next week and , if she 'takes off' with conviction(higher vols) I'll try to climb on board in a small way.

On another 'item' you mentioned in your post above...Mr Bryce Gilmore'...haven't heard much about him for yonks(back in mid 90's). What a character but also great forward thinker. I particularly liked how he combined his take on Gann's work and combined that with his personal EW and Geometry knowledge...I owe him a lot for getting me on the way to understanding/indentifying 'Market Personalities'(his Wave Theories)and still have all his books and original Wave Trader Program(that no longer works on current Windows OS)...what an amazing program for its time(1990). Didn't he love Gold, MIMs and BHP! Wonder what he is up too or indeed if he is still with us.

Cheers Dolphin

stampy

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Friday, August 28, 2009 - 10:35 pm:

Hi Archer

Thanks for your reply. I've done a bit of reading and have received very negative reviews of Gann (Winner take all and Trading in the zone). I'm guessing at this point that there are many things in the trading world that if done properly work. I've been reading Dolphin, Hershy ,Sir Peter and the Captain and have found many things but I'm still scratching the surface.The more teachers the better . I've never taken much out of time cycles but i'm now going to have to start counting trend breaks as well so it seems. I'm going to do a bit more work and will come back with a few more questions if thats ok

Regards

Stampy

archer

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Saturday, August 29, 2009 - 04:47 pm:

Stampy
No problems-i'll answer qs as best i can

"I'm guessing at this point that there are many things in the trading world that if done properly work."

Keep in mind also that what works for some does not work
for others.your job is to find what works for YOU
Thats why some revere Gann and others think he is a load of
"@#&
I'm in neither of the above camps as i will likely never
understand all his work but ive found parts that are very
useful to me
There are many succesful traders who have never bothered
about cycles and if i were to wake tomorrow to find
everything i know of cycles had been sucked out of my
memory it would not affect my trading in the least so dont
feel that you must learn this to trade
The fascinating thing about cycles though is that once
they become a part of your thinking you begin to see them
in all aspects of life and you see you even have your own
personal cycles as a trader
I cant speak for others but ive noticed in my own work that there are periods where it seems like someone has just flicked the switch and all of a sudden everything you touch you f%ck (Passion fingers i call it)all my longs
start falling and shorts start defying gravity and you
look at your trading to see if anything has changed.you
cant find anything to explain whats going on,you start
ripping your hair out'banging your head against the wall
then all of a sudden like the switch is flicked again
everything you touch turns to gold
(be interesting to hear if others have noticed this)
I haven't been able to plot my own cycles yet but ive
learnt to recognise them very early on and react
accordingly E.g back right off-make smaller and less trades
and do the opposite when things turn up again
Anyway enough rambling on

GDD
He was a character alright was Bryce
A person who didn't suffer fools lightly
But he waS good at what he did
I was in touch with him up till around 01-02 when he just
seemed to disappear of the face of the earth
He loved that little goldie called Emporer too
Re PAX i still think it has some sideways to down Time to
do but have exposure via WCP if im wrong(;->

archer

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Tuesday, September 08, 2009 - 10:39 am:

WCP broke up,retested then had a 100% up day on the back
of an announcement of a share placement at 4c WTF!!!!!
wcp

archer

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Thursday, September 10, 2009 - 11:35 am:

Just a couple of timing examples
pem

immune

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Thursday, September 10, 2009 - 02:01 pm:

Archer
excellent posts above
Have you checked out ESI lately
if so any views and could you post a chart with targets
cheers
BAU has done well recently
so has GXY

hershy

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Thursday, September 10, 2009 - 02:42 pm:

Immune,
Writing from work, I cannot post charts from here and have access to very basic charting. I know what you see in the chart, it's taking on a rounding appearance. What I do not like is that a weekly chart shows the weekly closes for the last 5 weeks have been close to the lows which usually is not a sign of strength.
Not sure what tham means, Are day traders going in on Monday and out on Wednesday, is it manipulation or just interest in the product awakening in the public? In case you don't know what ESI do, it is worth looking at. They turn low grade coal into cleaner burning coal with higher calorific value. Win/win/win/win situation.
The miner gaet a market, ESI gets the added value, the customer gets good clean burning coal and our climate has less carbon to contend with.
But then, this type of product is very, very open to hype because of the emotive issue of climate warming.
I recall Dug had a theory about ESI roughly one year ago, but then again, he does have many of those (this said respectfully Mr. Dug).

The big money in stockmarket investment is not made in the thinking, it’s made in the sitting.
My advice is worth exactly what you pay for it so do your own research.

http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/

archer

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Thursday, September 10, 2009 - 02:58 pm:

Hi immune
I was watching GXY on monday and caught a nice d/trade on
the breakout.Still watching as it could go into a HUGE
blowoff move but these are risky trades BAU is similar
ESI started out with a very similar pattern as those im showing above and now looks like a rounding consolidation
pattern-Vol should slowly creep up if this continues
esi

archer

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Thursday, September 10, 2009 - 03:19 pm:

sorry hershy-crosspost

immune

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Thursday, September 10, 2009 - 03:48 pm:

Hershy and Archer
Thanks for such prompt replies

so many opportunities in the current climate

watching TOE when it comes out of trading halt
accumulation period like ESI
yesterdays action - insider trading if ever there was
could be a take over offer

ESI loading up for the big payoff

immune

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Thursday, September 10, 2009 - 03:56 pm:

Targets for ESI

push past 7c on volume
break of 10c will rapidly see 12c - 16c -24c
undervalued and as you say Hershy win/win

archer

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Saturday, September 12, 2009 - 10:18 am:

WCP all green bars-how quickly sentiment can change in a stock
wcp

palace

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Saturday, September 12, 2009 - 01:04 pm:

hi archer

noticed you had FML a while back , entered friday on retracement and interesting story, i thought .some concern with decreasing volume on friday though,not sure what to make of it ?

cheers mick

C:\Documents and Settings\Michael\Desktop\flying pig.gif

archer

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Sunday, September 13, 2009 - 05:19 pm:

Hi Mick
It just cant seem to breakout of the range its been in for
the last 8-9 months but once it does it shouldn't look back
Weekly vol looks okay with a world record bar but it depends
on your timeframe
Once people realise gold is going over and staying above
1000 these stocks will move well
Still looks like a massive accumulation pattern to me

gdd3

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Monday, September 14, 2009 - 11:36 pm:

Hi Archer...

Has XJO "squared-out" in Time and Price? I know our mutual friend B.G. liked to use Fibo/Gann square relationships plus Square Rts...71.2week = 1/2 SqRt of 2 and 72wks = 1/2 144 Gann number that is often applied(and works)to/with the SPI 200. So last week's high marked the 38.2% Time and Price(smigion over)squaring of the Bear leg down.

And since the March 10 low we have pretty good Gann numbers coming up too...90degs x 2, 60degs and 180degs(Mar. low to Friday's high)....well almost!

Any thoughts???

Cheers
Dolphin

archer

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Tuesday, September 15, 2009 - 09:47 am:

Hi Dolphin
I've been watching those numbers also and posted this chart
after the June high as the highest probability based on the
time cycles with the forecast line ending at 180 cd from low
At that time i thought we might have a severe 60 day decline
after a Sept high into an Oct low but right now when i look
at the charts that doesn't seem to be what they are saying
pre

Currently i still see some form of top here but possibly a
smaller decline in terms of time and price
Before the previous corrections there were 2 small
distribution patterns just above previous highs and we are
now just above the last pattern with plenty of negative
divergence showing on the U.S and OZ charts
Cheers
-Archer-
cur

archer

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Wednesday, September 16, 2009 - 10:43 am:

Good timing Mick
Cheers

palace

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Saturday, September 19, 2009 - 11:37 am:

hi archer

yes certainly was, worked out to be the perfect trade for me

topped up at 3.4 and soon after put a sell in at 5 cents

ala peter mathers trading levels and got hit for the high

of the leg .

got to work out sometime

cheers

mick ps looking for re entry when the excitment dies down

C:\Documents and Settings\Michael\Desktop\flying pig.gif

palace

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Saturday, September 19, 2009 - 06:21 pm:

atv moving out of the swamp afer a year

huge volume friday on report

mick

C:\Documents and Settings\Michael\Desktop\flying pig.gif

palace

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Saturday, September 19, 2009 - 06:24 pm:

and the weekly

C:\Documents and Settings\Michael\Desktop\flying pig.gif

dug

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Wednesday, September 23, 2009 - 02:44 pm:

Archer/Palace/Anyother Comp below 5 cents Advocates,

Now I realise you are real penny share[under 5cent]exponents,and I don't want to offend you but I want to put a Case to you for Voting YES to the Comp only being in more than 5 cent shares in the next series.

Not only the Liquidity Issue should be considered but also the Practicalities,the Reality of Actually Trading this "style" of Shares.

The Comp falls short of real Life Experience IMHO because it has great emphasis on Percent Gained on Paper.The WINNER is They who can proclaim the Greatest Percent in a time frame.
It is,of course,biased towards the least priced entry sheerly due to the Maths that such shares are "naturally" leveraged.A Couple of Ticks in say a Two Cent Share of course acts to get a pilgrim in the Top 3 percentage gainwise.

However,we who actually have experience in such shares,and want to genuinely share our Knowledge are all too aware that in practise such gains are ephemeral,great on paper but rarely ACTUALLY Achieved.

Any experience of josling onto Market depth onto the ASK clearly illustrates this eg Too far Down the Line and you don't meet the Paper target.No,you have to Sell into the Bid and consequently ACTUALLY Reap a much lower percentage.

Archer,only those ego driven,self delusioned about being Winners,Reputation junkies would insist on maintaining this "rigging" of the Comp by maintaining that under 5 cent shares should be kept.

These actual 5centers and below consistently arise as in a class of Show Pony Types.So tenuous in their Self esteem that they can only example themselves with no explanation/revelations of method,other than by Looks Good On Paper this natural leverage pick.

Now I hope YOU,Archer et al are not Offended but I just wanted to put 2U that IF the Comp is established as chiefly a Avenue of Learning that maintaining all shares at ANY price is counter productive.

Like IF the objective/objection/attitude is WINNERS are grinners?well why not consistently put in .001 picks and let it be "assumed" you got the tick to .002/100%?

hope you see how pointless such a comp organisation would be.

regards.

Even 'til Jaded.

Dig for the sake of it.

hershy

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Wednesday, September 23, 2009 - 02:53 pm:

I'm with the you Dug !

captain_chaza

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Wednesday, September 23, 2009 - 04:45 pm:

WHAT A LOT OF RUBBISH!
Another one for the drongos and academics,I guess?

I have had no problem winning the WOODEN SPOON 3 times sailing the under 5c class of sail
ie: I had no trouble buying $5000 worth of these stocks in real life

These contact notes are available on request!

Cheers

PS It must also be noted jr that 0.001 is
the lowest common denominator and 0.001 from ZERO AND A 100% WIPEOUT

(Message edited by Captain_Chaza on September 23, 2009)

(Message edited by Captain_Chaza on September 23, 2009)

dug

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Wednesday, September 23, 2009 - 05:17 pm:

but oh gratin one,he who don't do what he declares he'll do ie pack up his act outta here and go impose on somewhere else,you are failing to understand that it is Not Only $5000 being placed in the comp.
but Really one's accumulated contest dollars that could be 10grand or more.

Charlie,you consistently show No respect,you are worthy only of contempt.despite ya hangers on like seahound boosting you,I see you have Minimum Constructive Comment Input,only preening,smart alec,bully boy attitude.

Please cease and desist commenting on my posts and perhaps you should review your cliche response as per bib the other day.
and spare us that huff and puff "proof" by merely typing out a cover note from Comsec.If ya wanna play games,get one of your sycophants to scan reproduce at least a Commsec Heading even if ya have to Forge it.

As far as I'm concerned,Chuck your days of Ego Stroking by niggling/badgering/riddling this Forum with your particular say nothing,be mysterious "Guru" are or should be given d'Chop.You're the Problem and have to be dosed as a Solution.

Shape Up or Ship Out,respectfully Charles.

your act is sooooo stale.

Even 'til Jaded.

Dig for the sake of it.

archer

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Thursday, September 24, 2009 - 09:59 am:

Dug
I see the weekly comp as a game only
If newbies think they are going to learn anything from it
they can set it up however they like
The few who thought they were learning something from that
thread discovered it was only the raging bull market that
made it seem so
When the shit hit the fan they had no way to deal with it
and thats why most dissapeared
Remember that thread here with the retired folks playing
with their retirement money
They all thought they were traders until the bear growled
and wiped them out-quite a few of them being heavily
leveraged
They all thought they were learning stuff but in the end
they were just bull mark traders

dug

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Saturday, September 26, 2009 - 05:22 pm:

archer wrote on Thursday, September 24, 2009 - 08:59 am:
The few who thought they were learning something from that
thread discovered it was only the raging bull market that
made it seem so

i reckon a Major Factor in the demise of the Traders was CFD's able to be bought across a much wider range of shares than the pre existing Derivatives.

Despite all that chat in Systems and elsewhere about how to "sensibly" gear,i reckon the "newbies' AND all those Gun Traders when they "seemed" to get a handle on TA and had developed Mechanical Systems went for the Golden Ring.

and ended up with brass or pig iron ie had say $10k for a share but put out for 10/1 gearing and played 100 grand posisition.

I noticed a change of Attitude in this Place.There was an increased emphasis on Trading for a Living,if one wasn't doing this?well you were demeaned and patronised.

You had this Traders Lifestyle flouted at you.
Classic Cars,OS Holidays,Beautiful Partner, the Respect of a Society of Share Traders with spivy clothes,mornings were for coffee society,you merely went online for the Close to Buy'n'Sell and off to some glorified Hamburger Joint or went home to ya hearth to swig single malt or french brandy.

All ages but it especially appealed to d'Over 40's.
Archer,the pilgrims were drooling for a piece of this action.

So when these Gun/Glory Traders discovered the popularity of CFD's.That these new things allowed an under capitalised but "ambitious" newbie to have a Go at giving up their Day Job,they stepped in here offering "advice",more Motivational than Practical.

After All they couldn't be expected to go into ALL of their touted system.
Do you remember,Archer the several posts about how much should be charged for one on one Help?My memory that it got up to a $1000 for a Session.

I certainly remember clearly these "SalesPeople's" Philosophy-That THEY were forgoing being in the Market so their recompense should be commiserate with what They coulda,woulda,maybe made "privately" if they hadn't magnaminously offered themselves for Instruction.

Archer I'm saying to you that this Past "Tradition" has to be modified if not eliminated and this AIM will be achieved in part by not making the Comp a mere Game but FREE Instruction for all of us.
I don't really "endorse" the Comp.Strong but Silent Types post only there and wear the Forum's Left Over Glory Bully to sneer and snipe.I noticed KOR and ya call Archer.I also read cclot's bit on it.

Archer,U Know'n'I know that this particular member is Full Of IT.Riddled with Self Doubt,he be.
Personally I get d'heebeejeebies reading his self agrandsment posts,it's this Forum's Disgrace.

but i don't have the time anymore to take this...."respected member"aka prick on anymore.

If you Insist on wanting under 5 cent shares in the Comp,how about more of your personal "discoveries" on how2do it? preferably with minimum wave theory though,hey?

regards,archer hope you're still standing if/when i return daily.

Even 'til Jaded.

Dig for the sake of it.

archer

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Wednesday, September 30, 2009 - 11:23 am:

GDD
Heres another possibility
SPX did a 90 day run to the June highs followed by a 30 day
decline
From that bottom another 90 day run takes us to Oct 10-11
and is 360 from a bottom and 720 from THE top

archer

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Wednesday, November 04, 2009 - 02:48 pm:

The breaks of MRO and BUR move the table from a 20-1
failure rate to a 8-1 success rate
Boy ya cant be much WRONGER than that-hahaha
When a company(FML)with 10mil ounces is making new lows in
this gold environment there is something seriously wrong

ken

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Wednesday, November 04, 2009 - 10:58 pm:

Archer, Are you sure you are talking about the right stock? FML is over 200% up from its recent low.

Ken

archer

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Thursday, November 05, 2009 - 09:58 am:

Sorry Ken i f'd up CTO i meant

archer

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Monday, November 09, 2009 - 09:46 am:

Looks very interesting
tgf

archer

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Wednesday, November 18, 2009 - 09:31 am:

"From that bottom another 90 day run takes us to Oct 10-11
and is 360 from a bottom and 720 from THE top"

So the 90 cycle did a few days overtime which is not
unusual with this momentum and a momentum sell trigger
came a few days later-target from that sell is around 4300
which also happens to be the 50% mark of the July-Oct leg
Resistance is the small dist pattern in Oct

xao

archer

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Thursday, November 19, 2009 - 09:25 am:

Whooops missed an important uptrend line
If it holds it may do another leg up to feb-mar
Seasonal strength arrives in a few weeks
xao

dennis_menace

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Saturday, November 21, 2009 - 02:08 pm:

Hi,

This is how I see it.

archer

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Wednesday, November 25, 2009 - 08:59 am:

There are neg divergences everywhere Dennis but the markets
are holding up and there is a seasonally stong time
approaching quickly so i think it will take a BIG surprise
or Event to knock this market down
Avoiding that it looks like a 5th wave up till around late
Feb early MArch

archer

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Friday, November 27, 2009 - 09:36 am:

Is this the big surprise???????????????????????
Fears over Dubai send European shares tumbling
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/markets/article6933664.ece

archer

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Thursday, December 10, 2009 - 10:29 am:

PAX has pulled back as anticipated
Long a few here

gdd3

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Thursday, December 10, 2009 - 04:12 pm:

Hi Archer...

I think you maybe on a goer here but I'm also thinking as PAX has been 'vibrating' fairly truly/nicely since it was changed to PAX, and especially since its AT-High and then AT-Low, it may have a few weeks of time action to go(sometime during the week ending the 31st of Dec.)and hence maybe a bit more downside(say even 13-12c)before she bounces.

The last 2 intermediate swing highs were on/at 1/3 time frames(17wks+) and the July swing low represented the 50% of time(26wk) so in 3 weeks we will 'marry' swing high and swing low time frames. This could mean that this retracement could reach the 2/3 mark(~12.5c) but it also could mean price is ahead of time and therefore the 15cent(50% retracement), and I'm assuming your level here, is all we will get down too.

Market depth at present is even but given the nature of the fall over recent weeks thats not too bad. All in all worth watching.

Good luck with her and cheers
Dolphin

archer

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Friday, December 11, 2009 - 09:08 am:

Thanks for the comments and great chart Dolphin
I see the potential for 13c also hence my part position
and the end of Dec would mark a 120 day decline = to 50%
of the 240 day run up
This would form a 2 year inv H+S base

ivor

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Friday, December 11, 2009 - 05:34 pm:

Hello Archer

Have been a regular reader of your thread, and find it very informative.
Bought in to PAX today at 16c.
Myself and my chart advisor (an Elliott wave guru) think we may have caught wave one of a new set up.
Hope so anyway.
Indicators looking good and have calculated first wave to move to 21c plus.

Regards
Ivor

archer

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Monday, December 14, 2009 - 09:52 am:

Hi Ivor
Lets hope your wave read is accurate
Waves 1+2 are about as clean as you will ever see but is
the second finished yet???
Closing above 16 with some extra vol would be positive
Good luck to us
---Archer---

hershy

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Monday, December 14, 2009 - 10:13 am:

My wave count shows wave 1 about to get underway.

I've been on my cruise ship for 3 days and have not left my cabin yet. There are two doors in my cabin. One leads to the bathroom and the other has a sign on the door knob that says "Do not disturb".

http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/