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     hershy
Member
Username: hershy
Post Number: 2255
Registered: 10-2002
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, April 29, 2009 - 10:53 pm: |  
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Inverted head and shoulder. Work in progress.
Target @ $6.00
I do it doji style !
http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/
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baysider
Member
Username: baysider
Post Number: 185
Registered: 06-2009Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, October 24, 2009 - 02:16 pm: |
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Hershy
Our posts from earlier this week are caught up inside the CSR thread and Colin hasn't moved it so I thought i'd restart your old thread.
I bought in on Monday when the stock dropped below the traingle and the longer term trend line but then reversed towards the close to end just above both lines at $6.42 which is the price I paid.
Since then the stock has behaved in the classic fashion and has now broken out of the top of the traingle with increased volume and all TMF and MacD looking positive.
I added to my position on Friday though a little late in the day at $6.92, closed at $6.99 and looking positve though it may retrace to the break out line on Monday, we'll see. Hoping for $8+
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hershy
Member
Username: hershy
Post Number: 2776
Registered: 10-2002
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, October 25, 2009 - 11:52 am: |
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Baysider,
Your entry is the sort of entry I strive to make. The last test of trend support before breakout. BKN has produced it's highest close in over one year. I see $8 as the target of this breakout.
Well done !
The big money in stockmarket investment is not made in the thinking, it’s made in the sitting.
My advice is worth exactly what you pay for it so do your own research.
http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/
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baysider
Member
Username: baysider
Post Number: 186
Registered: 06-2009Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, October 25, 2009 - 01:11 pm: |
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Thanks Hershy
Coming from you that is praise indeed. Thanks to all who post on this site, but yourself, Peterloh, Dolphin and Rudy (when he posts) in particular I feel I've improved greatly in recognizing signals and acting on them correctly.
It's a long process but hopefully I shall continue to improve and profit.
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baysider
Member
Username: baysider
Post Number: 189
Registered: 06-2009Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, October 27, 2009 - 07:48 pm: |
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Got stopped out today at 6.78 where I'd placed my stop just below the top of the triangle (better to have some profit than none at all). The price has remained within the triangle however so it has not yet broken the upwards path.
I now need to work out my re-entry price if today was another short term event. I'm thinking about buying back in on a close above the previous high of 7.02, what do you think Hershy?
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hershy
Member
Username: hershy
Post Number: 2787
Registered: 10-2002
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, October 27, 2009 - 08:36 pm: |
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Baysider,
I think I would have placed my stop lower, risk more per share but a smaller position.
My stop would be a few cents below the spike low.
You don't just pick a figure and say "This will be a good spot for a stop loss" ala Batman. Not the bat man, but Batman of Melbourne fame. You need to find a solid support level and pitch your stop loss just below that. In the long run, cheaper than entry and exit and re-entry, etc...
Which is not to say that your line will be impenetrable but yoo do put the odds slightly in your favour. You found a great entry, it is a shame to waste it with badly placed protection.
The big money in stockmarket investment is not made in the thinking, it’s made in the sitting.
My advice is worth exactly what you pay for it so do your own research.
http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/
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baysider
Member
Username: baysider
Post Number: 190
Registered: 06-2009Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, October 27, 2009 - 09:52 pm: |
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You're probably right Hershy, part of the learning process and a personal stumbling block to overcome. When I've got myself ahead I find it hard not to take the profit when it turns against me and fear putting the stop lower as you suggest only to find it still goes through it and you end up with a loss.
I'm sure everyone's the same but the number of times my stop is taken out by 1c only to reverse- AGHHHHH!!
With the strength BKN had shown I had hoped the triangle upper border would cause it to reverse - but no. Lets see what happens tomorrow.
Thanks for the help anyway
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ivor
Member
Username: ivor
Post Number: 135
Registered: 08-2009Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, October 28, 2009 - 10:44 am: |
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Hi Guys,
Agree with Hershy -
If using a stop loss on this chart should be placed a whisker below $6.30, where the share has shown solid support.
But I would have done what you did Baysider.
Would have sold it at a small profit and moved on.
Would consider buying in again above $6.30 if the share bounced of the previous support at this level.
Don't see any reason to wait for a break through the $7.00
level, you could maybe sell it again there if it stalls and take a second profit.
Philosophy is -
Little fish are sweet.
Can never lose by taking a profit.
A fast trade is a good trade.
And you've got your money back to have another go.
Regards
Ivor
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baysider
Member
Username: baysider
Post Number: 195
Registered: 06-2009Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, October 28, 2009 - 12:09 pm: |
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Interesting Ivor - BKN has today just bounced off 6.30 exactly!!!!
To my eye it could now be entering a sideways move between 6.30 and 7. The question is do you take the risk? Industrials are taking a hammering right now.
What's the stop loss setting today, $6.20 or would you go as low as 5.95??
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ivor
Member
Username: ivor
Post Number: 141
Registered: 08-2009Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, October 28, 2009 - 05:53 pm: |
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BKN
Has fell through support which now does not exist.
Personally would not touch it at this stage.
Needs to reestablish a new pattern now.
Watch and wait, put back on the watch list.
Bet you're not sorry you took a small profit now.
(Refer to previous philosophy)
Regards
Ivor
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baysider
Member
Username: baysider
Post Number: 198
Registered: 06-2009Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, October 28, 2009 - 06:19 pm: |
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CORRECTAMUNDO!
Very glad indeed, good for the mind though having said that it puts a spanner in the works of having a strategy that you implement consistently.
Back to the drawing board.
Agree wait and see now. It could become a sideways pattern between $6-$7, could buy at $6.02 and stop at $5.90
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hershy
Member
Username: hershy
Post Number: 2792
Registered: 10-2002
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, October 28, 2009 - 07:50 pm: |
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You guy miss the point.
The idea of trading for a living or at least profitably is money management.
Sure, you win some and you lose some. But good money management demands that you let your gains run and you cut your losses. But how you cut your losses is important. In this example the stop loss I suggested would have resulted in a loss instead of the profit that Baysider made.
It does not mean the philosophy is not correct.
It simple means that this time it did not suit the circumstances OR the stop loss was not placed correctly.
If what we are experiencing now is a correction of 10 - 15%, no stop loss would have been well placed so the discussion is purely academic. And if the market reverses in the States tonight, BKN will also reverse tomorrow.
One continuous argument being waged is how to act on stop losses.
Should one have automatic contingency stop loss orders or should one exercise a stop loss the next day. I belong to the latter group. Not that there is right or wrong, just two different points of view.
But to return to the topic of money management, 4 winners out of 10 trades can return a good profit if the management techniques employed by the trader are correct. So say Nick Radge, Daryl Guppy and many other shining lights.
The big money in stockmarket investment is not made in the thinking, it’s made in the sitting.
My advice is worth exactly what you pay for it so do your own research.
http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/
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baysider
Member
Username: baysider
Post Number: 200
Registered: 06-2009Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, October 28, 2009 - 08:19 pm: |
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Agreed Hershy, hence my comment that though the profit was good to take this time it did go against the idea of setting your stop loss correctly and allowing the trade to take it's own path until the target or stop loss is reached without worrying about money. Easier said than done though!
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ivor
Member
Username: ivor
Post Number: 142
Registered: 08-2009Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, October 28, 2009 - 09:51 pm: |
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But Hershy -
If you're using the stop loss correctly, it's not a place and forget. Hope you don't mean it should be left there permanently. Shouldn't it be moved up constantly underneath the rising price,to lock in any profit. Just because you place it originally does not mean you're stuck with it.
No point in letting a winning share fall down and trigger a stop loss just to be technically correct. I don't think you would advocate that.
Profits are hard to get, why throw them away ?
Any profit, no matter how small, is better than a loss.
BKN is a very volatile share. Can go up quickly, but can fall even quicker. If the bourse falls, BKN can throw a real wobbly and chew up money at a rate of Knots.
Have to be very watchful with it.
Regards
Ivor
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ivor
Member
Username: ivor
Post Number: 143
Registered: 08-2009Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, October 29, 2009 - 05:15 pm: |
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Hi Guys -
From www.the daytrader.com.au
Initial stop is placed at the most recent spike low beneath the buying price. This spike is formed when the low price for the day has a higher low either side.
As the price moves up the stop, now called a trailing stop, is moved to the next highest spike low as it forms, and if the price closes below this level, it is sold next day.
When the price moves up it is often more profitable to sell at a predetermined range.
If the price moves quickly to a target below the all time high, place a sell order just below the target.
If the target is above the all time high best to place a sell order just above the target, as this is sometimes exceeded intraday.
If the move towards the target is slow, will often sell after a reversal.
The Daytrader is published weekly in the Melbourne Sun.
It is a very interesting read.
Deals with T/A only, has no interest at all in F/A.
Is a very successful trader, and can often pick up tips from his column.
He seems to trade without any emotion whatsoever.
Cheers
Ivor
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baysider
Member
Username: baysider
Post Number: 201
Registered: 06-2009Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, October 29, 2009 - 06:04 pm: |
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Amazing recovery by BKN today. At one point down about 15% but recovered to within the $6 range, down only 2%. A lot of people would have been stopped out of that trade today!
I'll tread carefully for a while with this one.
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hershy
Member
Username: hershy
Post Number: 2794
Registered: 10-2002
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, October 29, 2009 - 07:45 pm: |
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Ivor,
I did not get the opportunity to respond to your post until now. Your later post referring to www.daytrader.com.au stated far better than I could how to work the stop loss hatch correctly.
Today would have wiped anyone with a stop loss of the board.
I would like to say that at times a spike down like today's does not necessarily mean it's a;; upwards from here.
Sometimes it points into the forthcoming direction of travel.
Not often but enough times to stop us being too cocky.
Actually quite a few charts display the same candle for today as well as a lot of double bottoms.
Quo vadis DOW ?
The big money in stockmarket investment is not made in the thinking, it’s made in the sitting.
My advice is worth exactly what you pay for it so do your own research.
http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/
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ivor
Member
Username: ivor
Post Number: 145
Registered: 08-2009Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, October 29, 2009 - 08:05 pm: |
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Hi Baysider-
BKN has shed a $1 or so in three days (14% ?). Would have stopped nearly everyone out by now.
If the bourse goes down tomorrow, BKN will most likely go with it.
Is a good share to trade but very volatile.
Need to watch it carefully.
Very astute to have made money from it in the present conditions.
Cheers
Ivor
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ivor
Member
Username: ivor
Post Number: 146
Registered: 08-2009Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, October 29, 2009 - 08:21 pm: |
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BKN -
Who knows ?
"OU VAS-TU MARCHE"
Good Luck
Ivor
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baysider
Member
Username: baysider
Post Number: 202
Registered: 06-2009Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, October 29, 2009 - 09:45 pm: |
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$4.40 looks a nice re-entry!!! A near 40% drop from the last high. Wouldn't that be nice.
Thanks for the compliment Ivor - good to have the gain rather than loss (though it wasn't big as I bought an additional 50% of my position @ 6.93) but as discussed earlier it has probably show again that I struggle to set the stop loss at the right place. As Hershy says the only way to success is to let the big trades run and you have to take the losses as they come.
Incidently Hershy did you buy anything today may I ask? Reason for question is whether you should automatically obey your buy signals even if your brain tells you a correction is happening so don't buy. You need to be brave an unemotional to pull the trigger on days like today.
Do we think this is the first of 5 waves down?
Lets see what tomorrow brings, maybe wave 2 up?
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hershy
Member
Username: hershy
Post Number: 2796
Registered: 10-2002
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, October 29, 2009 - 11:21 pm: |
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Baysider,
Historically, the average forward multiple for the Australian share market is around 15 but is now trading at a Price-Earnings (PER) multiple between 16 and 17.
A rather large correction is overdue.
No, I did not buy anything.
But then, I am a bear right now.
The big money in stockmarket investment is not made in the thinking, it’s made in the sitting.
My advice is worth exactly what you pay for it so do your own research.
http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/
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ivor
Member
Username: ivor
Post Number: 147
Registered: 08-2009Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, October 30, 2009 - 04:01 pm: |
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Hello Hershy
Here's some maths for you.
If the P/E for the entire market was 15, what would the xao index be.
Might be the time to buy back in ??
Regards
Ivor 
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hershy
Member
Username: hershy
Post Number: 2822
Registered: 10-2002
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, November 16, 2009 - 08:14 pm: |
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Your comment stayed in my mind. Bought back into BKN on the 10th @ $6.92
Would be very nice for today's breakout to continue to target !
The big money in stockmarket investment is not made in the thinking, it’s made in the sitting.
My advice is worth exactly what you pay for it so do your own research.
http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/
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baysider
Member
Username: baysider
Post Number: 223
Registered: 06-2009Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, November 16, 2009 - 09:44 pm: |
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Well done Hershy
I was watching to see if it would close above previous high - IT DID! Bit volatile (swing to 5.50) as we know, lets see how she performs.
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baysider
Member
Username: baysider
Post Number: 280
Registered: 06-2009Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, January 19, 2010 - 08:18 am: |
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This one's for you Ivor
You love a range trade and BKN looks at the bottom of its' range to me. Good luck if you take it on.
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ivor
Member
Username: ivor
Post Number: 344
Registered: 08-2009Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, January 19, 2010 - 08:51 am: |
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Hi Baysider
Looks like it may form a double bottom to me.
Target $7.00 then on to $7.70.
Stop loss $6.24, previous spike low.
Just needs an up candle today.
What do you think ?
Regards
Ivor
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baysider
Member
Username: baysider
Post Number: 281
Registered: 06-2009Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, January 19, 2010 - 06:23 pm: |
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Hi Ivor
Been out all day, just seen BKN stopped short of the stop loss target at 6.26. Did you take it on? Not quite the day I had imagined. No spare cash myself at the moment for this one.
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ivor
Member
Username: ivor
Post Number: 345
Registered: 08-2009Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, January 19, 2010 - 06:45 pm: |
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Hi Baysider
No, didn't buy. Chart still needs an up candle as a buy signal. Still could be making a double bottom though, but at least needs a higher low to be considered in my opinion.
Will see what happens tomorrow.
Regards
Ivor
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ivor
Member
Username: ivor
Post Number: 346
Registered: 08-2009Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, January 21, 2010 - 10:06 am: |
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Hi Baysider
BKN seems to have formed a double bottom around $6.26, but still needs confirmation in my opinion.
Yesterday's spinning top candle just means indecision.
Buy in would be around $6.30 level.
Target still $7.00, stop loss around $6.20 ?
Risk 10c. Gain 70c. Not bad, but not great. Usually look for about 10x, to compensate for risk.
But wouldn't like to be holding if the bourse takes a tumble. Think I'll let it go at this stage, but will keep on the watch list.
Regards
Ivor
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