NOD - Nomad Building Society

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hershy

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Wednesday, April 29, 2009 - 11:11 pm:

Kinda pushing the envelope with this one but another work in progress - H & S with a great target.
A move above .74 would have virtually no resistance until around $1.20

I do it doji style !

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hershy

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Saturday, August 01, 2009 - 07:42 pm:

Though Nomad has not behaved as expected, I really do like this security. Consolidation is happening below resistance and the longer this consolidation period, the more powerful the breakout thrust. Right shoulder of H&S pattern developing now, getting closer to the slightly tilted neckline. Target is around $1.25 but this could easily be a three bagger. I am in.

From the Yahoo finance site.

Nomad Building Solutions Limited (NOD) specialises in the manufacture, delivery and installation of modular buildings for a range of mid to large scale projects in the resources, oil and gas, construction, industrial and leisure sectors. The holding company has ownership of several wholly-owned subsidiaries which are divided into a tripartite management structure: Nomad Modular Building, McGrath Homes/Halley Homes and Rapley Wilkinson.

Nomad Building Solutions Limited (NOD) specialises in the manufacture, delivery and installation of modular buildings for a range of mid to large scale projects in the resources, oil and gas, construction, industrial and leisure sectors. The holding company has ownership of several wholly-owned subsidiaries which are divided into a tripartite management structure: Nomad Modular Building, McGrath Homes / Halley Homes and Rapley Wilkinson.

Nomad Modular Building
through its manufactured accommodation division provides modular building solutions for large scale projects with operations in Western Australia and Queensland. Under its asset hire division it provides modular buildings on a hire basis while under its transportable homes division it provides permanent transportable homes, which are built at McGrath Homes' production facilities in Wangara, Western Australia and transported to the client's site.

McGrath Homes / Halley Homes
builds transportable houses for the rural sector and smaller development projects in Western Australia through McGrath Homes which was acquired in 2006. Halley Homes was established in 1996 and acquired in 2007. It provides transportable homes throughout Queensland and parts of New South Wales. Through ownership of Norfolk Homes, the group provides on-site construction of 1 and 2 storey permanent homes. Certain Norfolk Homes construction processes and techniques provide for fast project completion, which provides a distinct competitive advantage.

Rapley Wilkinson
was acquired in 2008 and provides an entry for the company into regional resort and housing construction, and property management. It services primarily the tourism industry and resources sector in Western Australia.

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hershy

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Saturday, August 15, 2009 - 01:47 pm:

Got in on the 6th August @ .62 and Nomad took off 4 days later and I am sitting on a 20% paper profit.
Friday's close is sitting above resistance but after last night in the States I fear this level will not hold next week and it may re-visit the 60s.
The battle between fear and greed rages within my head. Still have my eyes set on the procession of targets at $1, $1.20, $1.75 and $2.40 but I would hate to give up any of quick profits I was just handed.
Perhaps I aught to sell half on Monday ?
Who said trading was easy ?

The big money in stockmarket investment is not made in the thinking, it’s made in the sitting.

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hershy

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Wednesday, December 09, 2009 - 08:26 am:

Fear won. But re-entry is very enticing at the moment.
I don't know why Nomad fell out of favour with the punters.
Still the same company, still the same product line, still the same prospects but Nomad went for downhill walkabout. It has finally found support and is presenting a low risk entry. Cannot post a chart, Could a kind soul please post a daily year to date chart ?

I've been on my cruise ship for 3 days and have not left my cabin yet. There are two doors in my cabin. One leads to the bathroom and the other has a sign on the door knob that says "Do not disturb".

http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/

peterloh

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Wednesday, December 09, 2009 - 10:09 am:

hershy,

Here's your chart, right on support line.With Dow Jones down last night, support may or may not hold.

Of late building material except steel have not been doing too well. BLD,ABC and CSR have drifted down on low volume. It is at a level I consider it to be cheap and now become value stocks. The cyclical is right for these stocks too, having sold down heavily and demand is starting to turn up on building materials. This together with the government stimulus will help the industry.I am afraid the first half won't give the necessary result, however the second half will get the benefit.I am currently buying straw hats in winter for my investment. I have to ignore the charts for the time being.

-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

ivor

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Wednesday, December 09, 2009 - 12:39 pm:

Hi Guys
Nomad is expecting a loss of $1M for the current 6 months, but expects profit to pick up during the second half.
On it's support line at present, but very lack lustre.
Punters seem to have lost interest in it at present, with declining volume over the last couple of days.
Indicators all rather poor.
Has lost nearly half it's value over the past 3 months.
Is cheap at present, well below book value.
Maybe even cheaper soon ??

Regards
Ivor

ivor

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Thursday, December 17, 2009 - 10:18 am:

Hi Hershy

Interesting chart on NOD, looks like it's ready to go to me. Like the tail on yesterday's candle.
What do you think ?

Regards
Ivor

hershy

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Thursday, December 17, 2009 - 07:18 pm:

The low risk entry turned into a low risk loss.
Nomad is out of favour, it would seem.
It has now become a falling knife so where would you buy Ivor ?
One adage is to buy on the first higher low but that would have got you into a losing trade when it last occurred on 23rd November. There is definite support at current levels and if the fall does not stop here next levels are not that far away. This may well be the time to buy straw hats in the winter.
But another adage that is bouncing around in my head says
Confirm, don't predict.

It is also worth noting that FWD who have a similar product line, plus caravans is in a stabilising pattern that is a continuation pattern and the direction is down !

ivor

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Thursday, December 17, 2009 - 09:10 pm:

Hi Hershy

Hard to know when to buy into a falling share.
Made a clanger with PGA, and bought in too high. Not unhappy with the share, but unhappy with the price that I bought in at. Cost myself a fair bit of money.
Don't seem able to pick the nadir.
NOD looks cheap to me also at this stage, but often cheap shares become even cheaper. But you never know when they are likely to take off. Had SSM, SGN and HST on my watch list also, and picked the wrong one in PGA.
Usually judge by the tails on the candlesticks, but that's not working for me lately.
Think I need a new system, but not sure what.

Regards
Ivor

hershy

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Thursday, December 17, 2009 - 10:07 pm:

Instead of changing systems, why not fine tune what you have ?
How about some trading rules like, never go long when the slow
stochastic or RSI MA is heading down or only buy when the MACD histogram moves above the zero line and THEN only buy if the volume of the day that gives you the signal is above the 28 day ma ?
And Ivor, money management rules dictate you escape from losing trades.

ivor

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Monday, January 04, 2010 - 06:34 pm:

Hello Hershy

Nice kick up for NOD today.
Might be on the way ?

Regards
Ivor

hershy

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Tuesday, January 05, 2010 - 09:08 pm:

Another good one today. Bit of a top tail so a retest may ensue tomorrow.

hershy

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Thursday, January 07, 2010 - 07:36 pm:

I will assume that the last low will stay that way for a while.
If I do assume that, then I will assume the the move up from that point is wave 1 of a 5 wave impulsive move.
This wave 1 has taken the SP from .565 to a high of .775 where it met some resistance. So far there is no sign of reversal, only of accumulation. IF NOD should head south at this point where could the correction stop ?
The fib levels say 70, 65 or 60 cents.
What then you ask ?
The next wave will be wave 3 which is bullish and is usually between 50 and 60 % longer than wave 1.

So work it out, wave 1 = 20cents then wave 3 should be between 30 and 32 cents. So if the correction takes NOD down to 65 cents, then wave 3 should go to 95 - 97 cents.

I am not saying that this is what will happen but it is a probable scenario. So be a scout, be prepared !

}

ivor

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Saturday, January 09, 2010 - 03:16 pm:

Hello Hershy

There's the retracement.
Wave 0ne 21c
Retracement 7c so far (33%), but may be more because of the friday candle being clean.
What do you think ?

Regards
Ivor

hershy

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Saturday, January 09, 2010 - 04:56 pm:

Ivor,
I could tell you but then I would have to kill you.
So better you wait to find out.

If love is blind, why is lingerie so popular?

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ivor

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Monday, January 11, 2010 - 11:32 am:

Hello Hershy

Bit of bad news for Noddy today.
Back to the drawing board eh.

Regards
Ivor

captain_chaza

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Monday, January 11, 2010 - 11:56 am:

Ahoy Ivor

That's another great example that Stop Losses "Don't Work" when you need them the most!

Salute and Gods' speed

"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.

"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate."
Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893

"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897

dug

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Monday, January 11, 2010 - 12:38 pm:

it's true ivor that a gap down on open on the news of a profit downgrade[especially profit forecast turned into a loss]will not have a stop loss safety net.

however,having such a large loss in your portfolio that is likely to get worse or at least linger for months puts an imperative on not gathering up other losers in your portfolio from your other holdings.

your method of never stop loss selling and just holding til they come breakeven again could lead to,what 50% of all your holds being in loss?major correction could be even 100% especially as you target mostly by range trades.

anyway,yes a major gap on open 'proves' stops aren't a complete surity against all risk and negative news etc however i hope you consider how else you're going to survive if your whole portfolio goes south.

foolish IMHO,ivor to think it'll never happen to you.
kinda arrogant especially for a basically range trader.

Even 'til Jaded.

Dig for the sake of it.

ivor

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Monday, January 11, 2010 - 01:58 pm:

Hi Guys
Was waiting to trade wave 3 after a retracement, and don't actually hold the share. Lucky me eh.
But often use a tactic of buying in after a profit downgrade, usually after 2-4 days when the price hits rock bottom. Usually the share will come back 10-15% or so in a short time period, and can turn it over then. Has been successful in the past.
But Noddy I'm not sure of. They have been poorly managed in the past, and are always making excuses for poor performance. Have done it again. And their competitors are doing well.
Think I'll delete it from my watchlist now.

But thanks for your advice, appreciate that you have taken the time to respond. While I'm not using a specific stop loss, I review my portfolio on a nightly basis, and if I think a share is lack lustre I sell it next day.

Am only holding 6 shares at present (2red, 4green) and have cashed out a lot lately.
Think the bourse is due for a correction shortly, and cash
is the place to be.
Will probably sell most of the others this week or next and start off from scratch again.
Don't like holding shares long term.
And often selling down a number together eliminates the reds, and keeps the capital intact.

Regards
Ivor

hershy

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Monday, January 11, 2010 - 02:00 pm:

Ivor
So now, I don't have to tell you. You know already.
I didn't either.

If love is blind, why is lingerie so popular?

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ivor

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Thursday, January 21, 2010 - 08:36 pm:

Hello Hershy

Interesting chart for NOD today.
Might be worth a speculative buy.
What do you think ?

Regards
Ivor

ivor

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Thursday, January 21, 2010 - 08:59 pm:

NOD

Bit of research from Bulkowski -

"Look for a red candle followed by a blue one opening below the red candle's low, and closing between the midpoint of the red candle and it's opening price.
Bullish reversal.
Acts that way 64% of the time."

And I think I'll buy a parcel tomorrow.

No need for stop losses, Captain Chaz said that they don't work. And that's good enough for me.

Ivor

captain_chaza

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Thursday, January 21, 2010 - 09:23 pm:

ivor wrote on Thursday, January 21, 2010 - 08:59 pm:
No need for stop losses, Captain Chaz said that they don't work. And that's good enough for me.

Sorry Ivor

I said
'They don't work when you need them the most'
I also said
"The Good get Gooder"

"Why do you keep so much Bad Company?"

You perform like a real loser to me!
Do you ever buy a performing share on the rise?

Salute and Gods' speed

hershy

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Thursday, January 21, 2010 - 09:30 pm:

Absolutely spot on !
About the stop loss that is.

The way the XAO sits at the moment, I think any buy is a speculative buy.
There are three things one can do when trading :
Buy, sell or nothing. Doing nothing when in the market is the only time when doing nothing is actually doing something. That is the action I am taking now.
If you get my drift.

As far as NOD is concerned you are again, totally correct about the one day reversal.
But one need "cojones" !.

Just to side track for a second:
My inaction reminds me:
About 9 months ago I saw a funny cartoon about two traders discussing the market. One trader said " I'm long in the market only because I have forgotten my password".
I seem to be getting that way.

Don't worry about what people think; they don't do it very often.
There is always one more imbecile than you counted on.

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ivor

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Thursday, January 21, 2010 - 11:34 pm:

Ahoy there Captain Chaz

Thanks for your interest.

Perhaps you could recommend a couple of performing shares on the rise for me.

I'll look forward to your response.

Ivor

colin_twiggs

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Friday, January 22, 2010 - 05:17 am:

captain_chaza wrote on Thursday, January 21, 2010 - 09:23 pm:
You perform like a real loser to me!

Charles,
That is a clear breach of the forum rules. Looks like we can't teach an old dog new tricks. An apology is required.

captain_chaza

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Friday, January 22, 2010 - 08:55 am:

Sorry Ivor

I can't believe I said "that" last night!

I really meant that I think you are wasting time on losers

I will try to find you an example over the week end

Salute and Gods' speed