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     hershy
Member
Username: hershy
Post Number: 2277
Registered: 10-2002
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, May 13, 2009 - 10:04 pm: |  
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Great looking chart this, It enticed me enter on Monday.
This could be a 2 bagger.
I also bought BKN, OKN and IRN and waiting on AXO.
All have fairly similar charts, but this one displays the least resistance.
I do it doji style !
http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/
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hershy
Member
Username: hershy
Post Number: 2838
Registered: 10-2002
Rating: 
Votes: 1
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| | Sunday, November 22, 2009 - 06:06 am: |
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How wrong I was !
Made money on all the others - OKN in particular but PLA has been very disappointing.
Chose PLA over AQP. Bought on confirmation of breakout, was in the money for a while and then below entry for most of the time since May. Small position, stop less not yet hit.
I call the pattern on the chart a wedge. Other may choose to call it a pennant or a triangle and the following comments are totally relevant only to this pattern although may be applied to other rising patterns as well.
What happened in this trade is a good lesson why it is more prudent and profitable to enter a trade, not on breakout but on bounce from support. For a start, one is in the money much earlier with a better chance of staying in the money. But the more important issue is that even if the pattern "fires" and performs as expected only later along the resistance line, the target is going to be much lower as seen on my chart. The resulting Risk reward ratio will be very different from my earlier expectation.
I have no doubt that given time, PLA WILL perform but much later than I was looking for.
Had my entry been made at support, I could have quit the trade with a small gain on a time based exit which I am not prepared to do from a losing position.
The view on my second chart may be just as valid but the suggested outcome from this pattern looks totally different.
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I've been on my cruise ship for 3 days and have not left my cabin yet. There are two doors in my cabin. One leads to the bathroom and the other has a sign on the door knob that says "Do not disturb".
http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/
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ivor
Member
Username: ivor
Post Number: 213
Registered: 08-2009Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, November 22, 2009 - 04:53 pm: |
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Hi Hershy
Not entirely sure where your suggested entry would be at present state of play.
1. Are you saying to enter from the bottom of the support line bounce around 88c or so ? In which case you would buy anytime now.
2. Or would you wait for a break of the upper line at around $1.00.
I tried number 2 on a Bluescope Steel pattern similar to this one and it cost me.
Would see target for PLA at $1.25 (previous resistance), not sure where your targets are coming from.
Regards
Ivor
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hershy
Member
Username: hershy
Post Number: 2840
Registered: 10-2002
Rating:
Votes: 1
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| | Sunday, November 22, 2009 - 07:59 pm: |
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Hi Ivor,
What I am trying to say is this :
Take a wedge, pennant or triangle where the perimeter of the pattern are narrowing. When entry is on breakout, one can workout the measured move from the breakout. The breakout has already occurred so the measurement starts from the point of breakout. Stop loss, to be rational, should be just below the pattern trend line. If the breakout is successful, great - no problem. I believe one should plan an entry at the bounce off trend or pattern support where stop loss is much closer and the same risk capital will allow a larger position.
As the breakout has not yet occurred, the measured move needs to be guessed as starting somewhere in the near future. If the b/o does not eventuate but the pattern holds true, due to the ascending pattern support the next bounce should be higher than the entry. But each failure to breakout puts the start of the measured move lower on the descending pattern resistance line. Hence - lower target.
How do I set my targets ?
A wedge will generally be expected to duplicate the hight of the wedge - measured from breakout. So on the PLA pattern as it is now, the hight of the wedge is .95 - .76 = 19 cents.
Were the breakout to occur tomorrow, the target would be $1.07 + .19 = 1.26 - pretty close to your target.
Had breakout occurred in the first week of August around $1.20, obviously the target would have been higher. Also the closer a breakout is to the end of the wedge/triangle/pennant, the less likely hood there is of the target being reached.
Cheers
Captain Obvious !
I've been on my cruise ship for 3 days and have not left my cabin yet. There are two doors in my cabin. One leads to the bathroom and the other has a sign on the door knob that says "Do not disturb".
http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/
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ivor
Member
Username: ivor
Post Number: 215
Registered: 08-2009Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, November 22, 2009 - 11:18 pm: |
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Very interesting Hershy
I used to always buy on a bounce off support, and did very well with that system. If using a stop loss, placed it just under the support line.
Then changed to buying after a breakout, thought that would be even better and more reliable, but it proved to be not the case. Often the share would move up, then fall back in a shuddering heap like the attached example.
Then have to either sell at a loss, or sit with a paper loss for weeks or months.
Totally agree with what you say, and I'm going to revert to buying on a bounce off support.
Regards
Ivor
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ivor
Member
Username: ivor
Post Number: 217
Registered: 08-2009Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, November 23, 2009 - 06:16 pm: |
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Hello Hershy
Nice breakout for PLA today.
What a difference a day makes.
Congrats & good luck with it.
Ivor
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hershy
Member
Username: hershy
Post Number: 2842
Registered: 10-2002
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, November 23, 2009 - 08:27 pm: |
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Thanks Ivor,
Now let's see if it keeps going.
Precious metals tend to travel in tandem with gold and silver. If we're waiting for $1300 gold Platinum should de even better. As I understand it, platinum is in great shortage. used for catalytic converters and jewellery it can only go one way.
And the same arguments were made when PLA was $3.20.
I've been on my cruise ship for 3 days and have not left my cabin yet. There are two doors in my cabin. One leads to the bathroom and the other has a sign on the door knob that says "Do not disturb".
http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/
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biggav
Member
Username: biggav
Post Number: 4
Registered: 11-2009Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, November 23, 2009 - 08:31 pm: |
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Hi guys,
I managed to pick this one up this morning at .971 using an auto trailing buy at 1% above yesterdays high. Looking good!
I also had an auto trailing buy for AQP but it did not work. The trading system calculated the buy trigger at over $40 when it should have been around 6.18, bugger! I will have to call my online broker to see what happened? I work during the day so do not see what happens until i get home when it is too late.
I have previously also being buying after breakouts but will try buying before the breakout on the bounce off support as you guys mentioned. Sounds like a better strategy.
I have only been technical trading since July so have a lot to learn. Hope i am not too much of a pain for you gurus?
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hershy
Member
Username: hershy
Post Number: 2845
Registered: 10-2002
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, November 26, 2009 - 09:48 pm: |
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The weekly RSI is going haywire.
Weekly MACD is about to perform a bullish crossover.
Looking promising.
I've been on my cruise ship for 3 days and have not left my cabin yet. There are two doors in my cabin. One leads to the bathroom and the other has a sign on the door knob that says "Do not disturb".
http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/
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ivor
Member
Username: ivor
Post Number: 224
Registered: 08-2009Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, November 27, 2009 - 09:41 am: |
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Hi Hershy
Looks good to me. Last four candles have stayed in the top half of the Monday spike candle, usually a very powerful signal. Should be flying any time soon.
Good luck with it
Ivor
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hershy
Member
Username: hershy
Post Number: 2917
Registered: 10-2002
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, January 02, 2010 - 08:34 pm: |
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Lots of promises from PLA but so far, no delivery.
Perhaps now,after the highest close in 5 months the accumulation phase has completed and we're about to get into the expansion phase. I would have liked to see more volume though. The buyers don't seem all that committed so far.
I've been on my cruise ship for 3 days and have not left my cabin yet. There are two doors in my cabin. One leads to the bathroom and the other has a sign on the door knob that says "Do not disturb".
http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/
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hershy
Member
Username: hershy
Post Number: 2939
Registered: 10-2002
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, January 06, 2010 - 10:13 pm: |
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The $1.10 level seems to be impenetrable. PLA bounced off yet again seemingly on another trip to the nether regions around 95 cents.
That area will make a good place to go long PLA and I may well add to my posi there. The harder the $1.10 is to break through the more powerful support it will become once it finally succumbs to the unrelenting assault from down under.
I've been on my cruise ship for 3 days and have not left my cabin yet. There are two doors in my cabin. One leads to the bathroom and the other has a sign on the door knob that says "Do not disturb".
http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/
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ivor
Member
Username: ivor
Post Number: 301
Registered: 08-2009Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, January 07, 2010 - 08:59 am: |
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Hi Hershy
PLA would have to be a very good buy again if it drops back to the 90c level.
I'll put it on the watchlist with a red bullet.
It's made an excellent pattern over the past 6 months.
Has made a double W in fact.
T/A doesn't get easier than that.
Regards
Ivor
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hershy
Member
Username: hershy
Post Number: 2943
Registered: 10-2002
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, January 07, 2010 - 08:22 pm: |
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Ivor,
Are you sure it's not a double M ?
I've been on my cruise ship for 3 days and have not left my cabin yet. There are two doors in my cabin. One leads to the bathroom and the other has a sign on the door knob that says "Do not disturb".
http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/
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dennis_menace
Member
Username: dennis_menace
Post Number: 1113
Registered: 09-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, January 08, 2010 - 12:34 pm: |
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Ivor - Are you sure it is not a double M?
I am with you on that one Hershy
I see it this way with another quick buck to be made on the next up leg!!
Regards
DM
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ivor
Member
Username: ivor
Post Number: 309
Registered: 08-2009Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, January 08, 2010 - 02:23 pm: |
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Dennis Menace
Only if you turn the chart upside down.
Looks like a double W to me.
Regards
Ivor
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hershy
Member
Username: hershy
Post Number: 2955
Registered: 10-2002
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, January 08, 2010 - 07:33 pm: |
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It was a joke Joyce !
If love is blind, why is lingerie so popular?
http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/
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hershy
Member
Username: hershy
Post Number: 2966
Registered: 10-2002
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, January 11, 2010 - 11:27 am: |
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Yeyyyy !
Breakout past 41.10, hopefully not fakeout !
If love is blind, why is lingerie so popular?
http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/
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peterloh
Member
Username: peterloh
Post Number: 3530
Registered: 03-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, January 11, 2010 - 11:45 am: |
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Is this distribution? PLA had dark clouds for the last 3 days of a trading session, then jumped in price, any reason?
-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.
The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.
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hershy
Member
Username: hershy
Post Number: 2970
Registered: 10-2002
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, January 11, 2010 - 08:11 pm: |
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Sorry folks,
Small monitor at work, eye sight not too good.
Break out past 41.10 should read $1.10.
But you knew that, right ?
So what now ?
Another gap tomorrow ?
Retest ?
Whereto hence ?
Round and round she goes, where she'll stop nobody knows !
This 10 month chart shows three targets, all valid.
I'm still aiming for $2.20 but it might take a day or two.
Anyway, stop loss moved up to $1.05.
If love is blind, why is lingerie so popular?
http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/
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hershy
Member
Username: hershy
Post Number: 3095
Registered: 10-2002
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, February 15, 2010 - 10:52 pm: |
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Or a year or two.
The more things change, the more they stay the same.
Back around $1.10 again.
PLA has just nudged itself out of an ascending triangle with not much conviction though. Could we see it break out past $1.30 at last ?
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Don't worry about what people think; they don't do it very often.
The wise man, even when he holds his tongue, says more than the fool when he speaks
http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/
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msparks
Member
Username: msparks
Post Number: 1197
Registered: 10-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, February 15, 2010 - 11:24 pm: |
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price of platinum ?
looks like a wedge to me until it breaks
and this one is not much help
"I have my own unique system "
"I manage to lose money in bull and in bear markets "
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