PBG - ready to breakout ?

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peterloh

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Tuesday, June 30, 2009 - 11:40 am:

Hi stampy and baysider,

Hope you still have PBG as the Bollinger Bands are tightening and MACD is turning upwards. If breakout happens, it should be quite healthy as this is after a period of consolidation and the SP staying above 80c.

-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

stampy

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Wednesday, July 01, 2009 - 08:32 pm:

Hi Sir Peter

I'm still long, I'm thinking if equities hold the line the PBG will break higher as a matter of course. Thanks for bringing my eye back to it.

PS support looked good today.

Regards

Stampy

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peterloh

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Thursday, July 02, 2009 - 04:23 pm:

Hi stampy,

Just hang on tight.

peterloh

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Thursday, July 02, 2009 - 06:39 pm:

Will PBG holders be lucky this time around?

stampy

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Thursday, July 02, 2009 - 08:54 pm:

Hi Sir Peter

Rather impressive close! Now to ride the band higher with just a little luck.

Regards
Stampy

baysider

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Thursday, July 02, 2009 - 09:37 pm:

Hi guys
I've missed the boat so far, lets hope it comes back for stragglers! I so nearly got on board at the 77c a couple of days ago and now of course it's flying - good luck.

Baysider

mook

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Friday, July 03, 2009 - 10:10 am:

Hi baysider,

I don't know whether you will ever get the 77c again. Today is an opportunity day for buying any shares.

mook

peterloh

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Friday, July 03, 2009 - 11:50 am:

Last chance for stragglers, today is the day!!

baysider

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Friday, July 03, 2009 - 03:38 pm:

Guys
PBG doesn't want to go down despite 2 sell off days so i've taken the plunge at 88c - more than I'd like to pay but lets see if it pays off.

Baysider

peterloh

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Friday, July 03, 2009 - 03:55 pm:

Hi baysider,

I sold off 50,000 PBG at .855c to buy TSE at $2.25. The next day was a sell off day and opened at .835, the low was .83.
I actually bought them back at .835 as I saw plenty of support and it closed at .855. I have a fair few that I bought on the rights issue plus extra quantities were allocated to me.

Although way overweight in PBG, I had to buy them back because of its strong support. I hope we both have made the right decisions.It was a U_TURN I had to make.

peterloh

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Tuesday, July 07, 2009 - 01:48 pm:

This one is so tightly held - worth thinking about.

peterloh

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Wednesday, July 08, 2009 - 12:10 pm:

PBG has retraced on very light volume.

peterloh

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Wednesday, July 08, 2009 - 05:58 pm:

Interesting Reading: Reported in ASX on yesterday's transaction on PBG.
Of business transacted yesterday on

PBG PACIFIC BRANDS LIMITED FPO 2,154,350
Short Sell 931,386.

I do not know the cumulative sums, but from the low volume retracement and heavier volume on the SP rise, this one is interesting indeed.

I still have my volume taken up intact.

peterloh

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Wednesday, July 08, 2009 - 06:01 pm:

Rising 3 as in candlestick speak, on schedule.

peterloh

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Thursday, July 09, 2009 - 05:46 pm:

Fifth time lucky for PBG, now to retest the support level.

stampy

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Thursday, July 09, 2009 - 08:20 pm:

Hi Sir Peter

I'm still here holding tight. If the market didn't go done so much this wouldn't be so hard now would it.

Nice call!!

Regards
Stampy

peterloh

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Friday, July 10, 2009 - 11:15 am:

She is pulling hard now, stampy. Hold tight, don't let go yet.

peterloh

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Friday, July 10, 2009 - 11:21 am:

PBG PACIFIC BRANDS LIMITED Yesterday's turnover 7,481,406 Yesterday's short 668,068 as reported by ASX.

peterloh

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Friday, July 10, 2009 - 02:12 pm:

Support level of 91c retested today, PBG should continue from here.

stampy

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Thursday, July 16, 2009 - 09:29 pm:

Hi Sir Peter

Still riding the wave.

Regards Stampy

mook

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Friday, July 17, 2009 - 01:11 am:

Hi stampy,

PBG has retraced 50% from the break out to the top. It came back to retest the 90c support level, on lower volume. This is an indication that the share is still bullish.PBG should be able to pass the $1 mark, a significant number by the end of the month.The relative strength according to candlestick analysis is still good as it stays on 50% of the support level.

mook

peterloh

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Sunday, July 19, 2009 - 11:11 pm:

Sold half my holding on PBG at .995c. I am looking to buy some back around at this level again.

peterloh

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Monday, July 20, 2009 - 05:49 pm:

stampy,

The risk about short term trading is, once you sold out you may not have bought it back and missed it all together.
I mentioned that I sold at 99.5, a large quantity. I did buy 50% back on Friday, a great day for buying especially near the close, when traders do not want to keep them for the week end, especially those with large quantity.I mentioned I was going to buy more today, it got away too quick, not the price for a trade, where I like some meat in it.I never got any today. So I still have most of my rights, except the 25% which I was not able to buy back in time. I may still have another chance this week before it goes over the $1 mark, ideally below 94.5, I would be comfortable.

stampy

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Tuesday, July 21, 2009 - 05:32 pm:

Hi Sir Peter, Hi Mook

Thanks for your thoughts on PBG.. I'm still in PBG..I'm not sure what sort of target i should be looking for so I'm keeping an eye on the support line. Mook I've been following an Accumulation index on this one I'm wondering if its working the same way the your relative strength index is? I'm thinking it could be.

Sir Peter your ability to turn your trades around is quite impressive.I have been following them. I am willing to admit that my entries seem to be better than my exits. If only it was the other way around. From what I see on the chart I agree that if we break the $1 mark it may run quiet a bit higher as it has the room to do so in the band that i see. The level at 94.5/95 you mention is right on the edge of support on the close for me so an intraday move is perfect as long is in bounces out.. Which from the sounds of things is what you looking for.
It can't be this easy can it?

Regards
Stampy

peterloh

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Tuesday, July 21, 2009 - 06:12 pm:

Hi stampy,

Do you go fishing? Have you ever trawl in a fishing boat?
I am just a passenger and a patron only, on a sport fishing boat which I bought as a gift for my son about 10 years ago.
We got out of BOX Head, somewhere in the Central Coast of NSW where the mouth of the sea was and set out 6 lines, as we cruise casually along the sea. All the lines went off, one after another like a hooked on. That is how I felt today. I have been buying some CEY and KZL of late. I bought more in the last few days. These 2 have large volumes going by. I am more excited, as they are like new born race horses, full of expectations and unknown and as soon as they give some small results, I feel very happy as they start to live up to my expectations.
KZL had a rights issue recently and I only had 25000 shares.I thought they need the money, so I send in for 100,000 as I had luck with OST and BSL before.My offer was turned down, in the end I could only get 25,000 my entitlement. I had to start buying from the market which I paid 20% more for them and recently 30% more than what I had to pay for them, as I need a certain quantity.I hope the volume in KZL and CEY really mean something today.

I am happy with the way, CEY run today. The other which ran very well is MCR. ABY and PBG are above expectations today.The rest are good too with the exception of ALS which is taking a breather. I hope it won't rest too long though.

As we run towards the end of the month, things should be smoother. However, we have such a strong run recently, like the bull, climbing a wall of worries, we are always cautious and doubtful whether we should take profit.

As for PBG, you will feel the lines cutting through your fingers as you hold so very tight, do not let go. I think this one has a fair way to go yet, the way it run today.
There were not many bears reported on this sail on the mighty Stock Exchange, yesterday,they were last seen nursing their bruises.Now that it has crossed the significant $1 mark, we are moving towards another level opf sail.

peterloh

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Tuesday, July 21, 2009 - 06:18 pm:

Hi baysider, you mentioned you were going to get this one at 77c, 2 weeks and it is $1.02.Hope you hold the ones you got at 88c!

stampy

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Tuesday, July 21, 2009 - 06:46 pm:

Hi Sir Peter

Actually I'm a very keen fisherman. My Father inlaw has a 26ft Caribbean that we take out trawling on a regular basis out of Port Hacking. There's nothing like a day on the water. I'm not the best fisherman yet but like technical trading I'm learning there too. No Marlin or Yellow fin this season but we did catch some Mahi Mahi and stripe tuna. I do love the sound of the reel when a fish takes the lure.

I too like the look of KZL. Volume as you say looked good.
I'm running with ESG long term hold. Not so Technical
PBG
AGO.. but maybe for not much longer, well see.
MOC.. Trying for a short term technical hold
FPA Just waiting for the resistance to break (Maybe)
WYL .. Wasn't very nice today but has a lot of promise

Any thoughts are always welcome

Regards Stampy

mook

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Tuesday, July 21, 2009 - 08:10 pm:

Hi stampy, all your shares have potential.I am in agreement that resources are the way to go at the moment. As it was put forward as "first cab off the rank". I do not think the run on resources have been overdone yet as many put forward as such. The miners are only starting to make money, they have something more to look forward to in the next few years. KZL is only a small to medium spec, however the resources they have on hand, are the envy of many. They used to be known as a zinc and lead producer only. Now they have commodities that are very much in demand for example, copper and gold. They are going into nickel with good expectations on return and they are not lagging in zinc and lead either.I am in agreement this one will continue to run for some time yet.By the volume KZL is commanding today, others have similar idea too.
Now that PBG has crossed over the $1, it will move on fairly quickly from here. I still see this one as undervalue. The SP in the next few weeks will determined what it is really worth.David Paradice has the share price of PBG from $1.20 to $1.50 as fair value.

baysider

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Tuesday, July 21, 2009 - 11:40 pm:

Hi Peter

Yes I've still got my PBG at the unfortunate too high price of 88c and I'm holding! You may have read on ODB that I originally bought PBG in the dark days of 16.5c as a pure contrarian speci when Rudd went on TV for a PR campaign. I found them too hot to handle at the time and got off at 24c or something like that. If only....
I also bought CEY today when I saw the volume and couldn't find any announcement. I'm hoping no smoke without fire and the EW analysis on the stock also looks pretty good so we'll see how she goes.
I nearly bought KZL today also but decided to wait thinking we're well due a pull back and I'll go in then. I don't know if this is a good thing but Charlie Aitken gave a very bullish wrap on KZL today in his newsletter. He is a perma bull I know.
I liked the pennant on AQA so I have some of those and saw another one forming on Stockland from May 10th. What do you think? Must admit i wasn't too interested in property but the chart looks quite good to me.
Well done on MCR, great result. Please keep your posts coming, I find them very good value and I find I have many similar stocks to yourself.

Baysider

mook

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Wednesday, July 22, 2009 - 12:16 am:

Base metal price, up another $52 tonight in the States. If this holds tomorrow,ABY,KZL and OZL will have a good day.

mook

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Wednesday, July 22, 2009 - 12:30 am:

Hi baysider, what was the article on KZL about?

baysider

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Wednesday, July 22, 2009 - 10:55 am:

Hi Mook
Quite a long piece which I'll try and paraphrase:
1 treat like IPO since recapitalisation - different beast now now, no debt.
2 Base price is 70-78c but does not take into account any new projects or rising prices. Full valuation 1.83.
3 Expects to move above $1 quite quickly
4 Cost of production was never more than sales prices even at lowest market point. - Good upside to come
5 10% rise in copper prices will lead to 50% increase in FY10 earnings - good leverage.
6 Still to play catch up with OZL and MRE which recapitalised earlier. See how they've gone.

Hope that helps a bit

gdd3

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Friday, July 31, 2009 - 03:18 pm:

Congrats must go to the "master" Peterloh on this one(I'm sure Stampy, Baysider, Mook and probably many more would agree). PL, your faith is being well rewarded as PBG seems to be defying gravity and just keeps pushing onwards and upwards. The lingering question is how far will she go and what best strategy to have onboard if you are onboard already if you know what I mean???

For those following short-term momentum oscillators you could be excused for exiting back in the high 90's as since then they have been at extremes and sometimes diverging. However, sometimes this is when best to hold as the indicators may only take the odd 1 or 2 day's breather but don't break trend...which is the case for PBG. For example, since July the 2nd when she closed at 90c, the 9day RSI has not fallen below 55% after giving 3 divergent "sell" signals. 55% now forms a good RSI support level and maybe one way to place a stop would be wait for this to break whatever the price is. Now those that follow such indicators will know that only a small price retracement from lofty highs would be needed to bring down the RSI a reasonable amount. Having said that the current RSI(9 day) is only at about 80%; high but not too high. Just have a look at the RSI movement back between April 28th and May 4th(80%-89%) and note how far the price moved relative the RSI% move!. Its quite possible to see a similar move from here.

Looking at my charts below, firstly the short-term daily chart and the Williams%R 14day on which I have shown an uptrend line on the indicator. One could use this as your stop tool in a similar way to the RSI description above. That is, hold until that trend breaks or below the swing low(on the indicator) on July 17th.

The longer term week chart deals more with price action and levels. Its looking that we are going to get our first weekly close just outside the weekly long-term downtrend line(blue line) but we are also at near the 50% retracement level of the last significant swing high(sept. 08). It could be time for a breather and this could be a "false" breakout but I for one certainly do not know.

So back to that question..."where to from here and how best to play it?" Well one could blame oneself for "taking some bread off the table right here" but I guess my strategy is sort of hinted above....and that is to let the market momentum tell me what to do(thus playing it tight) because I not too sure whether we are heading for $1.40 - $1.55(orange resistance line on weekly chart)as some have alluded too! If you are a sailor like the "master" PL....just hold on tight!"

Just one man's perspective and definitely not financial advice!

Daily Chart...

weekly Chart....

Dolphin

P.S. P/L enjoy yourself in "Sauna Malaysia" but be careful not to have too many Roti Bombs or durians(not with alcohol at least!).

stampy

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Sunday, August 02, 2009 - 08:38 pm:

Hi Dolphin, Hi Sir Peter, Hi All

Yes Dolphin I agree completely. Its been a very good call.. Lots of people say there great traders but few will prove it by showing there trades to others. Its a very rare trader that will teach others as he goes. Sir Peter thanks for sharing your thoughts and helping me out.
Regards
Stampy

As for close out levels on PBG well I haven't had to worry to much yet but wil post ideas as they come up.

dennis_menace

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Sunday, August 02, 2009 - 09:51 pm:

Hi,

I had just been listening to the "experts" on Business Australia on Foxtel and they reckon its recent run-up was due for a lull.

One of them was Gary Stone of Sharefinder
http://www.sharefinder.com.au/aboutus.php

Btw, I have no affiliation with either the genlteman or the company.

Regards
DM

(Message edited by dennis_menace on August 02, 2009)

peterloh

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Monday, August 03, 2009 - 05:16 pm:

Hang on tight, stampy, this one will pull so hard now, that it may pull the sockets off your arms(lol).

stampy

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Friday, August 07, 2009 - 10:52 pm:

Still holding tight Sir Peter!!

peterloh

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Saturday, August 08, 2009 - 03:32 am:

dolphin,

You picked my brain, I am inclined to hang on at this stage. I have the feel, momentum is still with this one.
Hang on tight stampy, PBG is lightly to push on from here.

peterloh

sauna Malaysia

peterloh

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Thursday, August 13, 2009 - 07:43 pm:

Look like dolphin is spot on. PBG is now on the 50% mark and is marching towards the next resistance level of $1.50.
First, it has to break its previous high of $1.27 first.

peterloh

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Wednesday, August 26, 2009 - 12:40 pm:

PBG has reported today, a rather low key presentation and the CEO is rather conservative with her approach.The chart on PBG on the other hand is telling us a more bullish story.The potential for this company is great. Is it able to utilise all the advantages? It has great brands like LEES, WRANGLERS which PBG have not taken advantage of. Perhaps,someone like Solomon Lew should have a look at this company. An outsider who knows nothing about retail or the rag trade may not be able to handle the job well. PBG definitely needs a new board, if that is the best they can do.On the other hand I could be wrong as they were bitten so badly last year, PBG has become over conservative. What should I believe in? The chart is telling us a different story. Am I expecting too much?

peterloh

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Wednesday, August 26, 2009 - 12:45 pm:

bib

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Wednesday, August 26, 2009 - 12:49 pm:

Hi Peterloh, i to see/saw the chart as bullish - breaking out of a short term contraction in a longish uptrend. My scans threw up a buy on the last two trading days. Lucky i did not enter. Maybe an overreaction by the market and todays action an opportunity?
TMF21 is very strong.

peterloh

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Wednesday, August 26, 2009 - 03:16 pm:

Hi bib,

I am out of this one all together.Someone is collecting at $1.19. Good luck to the collector. It was good for me while it lasted. About 100% each on both counts. I am too disappointed with the results especially their comments on hedging. In other words they had it wrong and therefore did not benefit from the strong Aussie $. This is as I read it.My understanding could be wrong. The charts did not signify a sell yet and the share I feel is fair value.
I see better opportunities elsewhere where though.

PBG has been buying good brands like wrangler, LEES etc and yet not took advantage of what they have got.Some of the things they did, I thought was all right, like changing everything to import etc, but hedging against a stong Aussie $ currently, I thought the rationing is not too sound.

I don't know anyone read about the thread "Sons of Gwalia". This company went bust because of the wrong move they took with hedging their gold. Whilst the gold price was going up, their profitability went the other way.It could also be said about the old Pasminco. Good luck to all holders, I am out.

baysider

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Wednesday, August 26, 2009 - 03:59 pm:

Hershy

Could you give us your opinion on the chart please, Peter has spooked me on this one as he's been a very reliable indicator to date. From what I can see it's touched both sides of it's current flag channel three times - is that not a positive sign for an upward break out?

Thanks in advance

Baysider

gdd3

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Wednesday, August 26, 2009 - 04:23 pm:

Baysider, I am viewing that the previous two days may well be representing a "false-break-out"(of the pennant you are referring too) and therefore this one is very likely(80% likelihood according to Peter Steidlmier...spelling?)to retrace back below the pattern by an equal amount...thus abt $1.07(which you may recall was the breakout point from the long-term downtrend).

Remember..."a profit is a profit" and you can not get hurt(other that your pride/ego) by taking one no matter how small BUT DEFINITELY DONT TURN A PROFIT INTO A LOSS! If you miss a potential profit by 'getting out too early' or not 'holding on'(and wearing some pain in the process wondering) just keep reminding yourself it was only a potential opportunity lost NOT YOU VALUABLE MONEY!

Dolphin

baysider

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Wednesday, August 26, 2009 - 04:53 pm:

Thanks for the sage advice Dolphin.
You are totally correct, better to leave something on the table than biting off more than you can chew. I've decided to take the profit while it's still there.
I still think back to buying this 6 months or so ago at .165c in the darkest hour but selling MUCH to early at 24c or something like that. Anyway i've had two lovely bites of this cherry so can't complain at all.

You may have seen I mistakenly made a new thread on IFN in Dug's beloved Sedgeman by accident. See wha tyou think.

Thanks

peterloh

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Wednesday, August 26, 2009 - 06:01 pm:

Reference PBG:

This was an email I send to someone, when I was selling out.
"
The result of PBG was a disappointment as reported. I do not know the actual situation, so I sold out. I thought the last quarter would have been better but it was worst.

There is strong buying at $1.19, the level I sold out at. If the market weakens, this share will go down some more. Someone could be collecting for a take over though, observing the transaction and market depth.

Chart still looks ok."

REASONS FOR BACKING OUT.

I have been aggressive with my evaluation of PBG performance. With all factors put in front of me I have to make a decision, whether to follow the charts or to use my knowledge and interpretation of the report. In the end I choose FA over TA because more facts have been disclosed. If no facts are visual, I will rely solely on TA.

I would have thought they would have implemented their program by the end of the last financial year. This has been delayed further till the second half of the year of 2010.So we missed out on the government stimulus or not benefiting much from it.It doesn't look like a good first half at all, little improvement!
We don't hear at all the benefit of the strong Ozzie dollar.
What happens when the ozzie goes down, we lost out again!
There is a cost over run, another excuse.
Certain expenses have been capitalised to make things look better. What is the true picture?
I think that this company has a lot of potential, however in this type of industry if we do not know how to run it, it could be run to the ground in no time. I have been there and done it myself. I know that private equity or someone like Solomon Lew would love to go through it. I know I do.
Chart still looks good.

dennis_menace

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Wednesday, August 26, 2009 - 09:14 pm:

Pacific Brands reported a 301% slump in profit for FY09 compared to the previous year. The clothing company posted a net loss of $234.5 million, down from the $116.6 million profit recorded in FY08.

At the close, Pacific Brands shares were down 13.5c to $1.185.

peterloh

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Friday, September 04, 2009 - 08:41 am:

I am reassessing PBG having sold out last week. In trading, preservation of the capital is prime important. In my situation, the protection of my takings. However I am prepared to have another look at PBG with an open mind.
The fund managers have not treated PBG too harshly judging by the support given to this share. After flirting in the upper channel for a few weeks before the report, PBG has returned to the lower channel. I notice all the heavy selling was done last week and the share was able to emerged intact and the selling has been reduced to a tiny "pitter".PBG is right on trend line now and if it holds here, the trend on PBG will still be bullish. Fund managers have a 3 years window on their selection and are more willing to sit through "the noise" than a trader.Even if it takes PBG 2 more years to reach the $2 mark, which is probable, it is still a return of about 50% per annum from here. Perhaps, I have treated PBG too harshly.

peterloh

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Wednesday, September 09, 2009 - 06:58 pm:

I hope I did not give a false alarm which caused a great many to realise their capital gains on PBG.My selling price was average $1.20, so even buying back now, I am 10c ahead per share.This one has support after having observed it for the last 6 months.I am of the opinion that it may get to $1.60/$1.50 by the end of next year year latest which still gives a return of 40% from here.So selling it was a panic situation as the trend has not been broken as shown earlier.Do you own research if you still contemplate throwing some of the hard earned money PBG's way and do not forget the stop loss even if you have to monitor it weekly.

peterloh

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Friday, September 11, 2009 - 02:23 pm:

If anything that can survive my brick bats, hammer and tong,I am with it. PBG, here I come again.

peterloh

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Monday, September 14, 2009 - 11:17 pm:

PBG is still on support trend line.PBG held up well in what we call a not so good day.

ivor

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Friday, October 09, 2009 - 09:34 am:

PBG - ready to have another go ?
Charts look positive ?

bib

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Friday, October 09, 2009 - 10:00 am:

Certainly looks ready to go ivor.

peterloh

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Sunday, October 11, 2009 - 02:43 pm:

Hi ivor and bib,

You guys are spot on. I am right on track with this one.After dumping PBG, at about $1.20, I changed my mind and bought them back near the $1.05 level and had been adding more back since.I wanted to buy more but the SP was going up too fast for my price set for Friday. So I ended up buying more GPT, MCW and GMG instead.
PBG is certainly racing towards the $1.50 level and will probably go beyond that by year end. I won't be surprise by it.

Peter

peterloh

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Monday, October 19, 2009 - 01:43 pm:

PBG has reached my target of $1.50 today. Where to from here? According to the "MASTER", when riding the trend, stays with it till it bends. This was the reason I had to eat humble pie, having jumped off PBG due to the very bad report, I had to get back on. Glad I did, because PBG had not bend then and the reason to sell was not enough justification.
PBG is now at the top of the channel.If someone takes the chips off the table, it is good enough reason.AS for me, I stay put.This one has performed a lot better than one could give credit for.A thing, I learned in trading is, never go against the trend.

ivor

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Monday, October 19, 2009 - 02:34 pm:

Hi Peter -
PBG reached my target as well at $1.50, so I sold it.

Better a bird in the hand than two in the bush.

Anyway, I always sell shares when they reach their targets. And sometimes even before.

On the lookout for the NBT ( next big thing ).
Any suggestions ?

Good luck with pbg.

Cheers
Ivor

peterloh

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Monday, October 19, 2009 - 02:51 pm:

ivor, this could be the 3rd wave, which started at the base of $1.11.It could retrace to between $1.40-$1.45 before powering on from there.
My game plan is to pyramid, once it retrace to that level
and hope for the best (lol).
Taking profit is normal, good luck to the NBT.
Have a look at LYC? According to charts it is not quite ready yet, market action is telling a different story.

ivor

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Monday, October 19, 2009 - 03:36 pm:

Peter -

Another or my philosophies for the share market;

"UN TRANSACTION RAPIDE EST UN BON METIER"

This share has rocketed from $1.20 to $1.50 (25%) in 10 days. Don't often get profits of that order in such a short time. So I've taken my money and left the building.

Thanks for your suggestion.
Will take a look at LYC.

Regards
Ivor

peterloh

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Wednesday, November 11, 2009 - 11:08 am:

It looks like PBG is moving again, ivor.Did you have a look at the long term thread on PBG?

peterloh

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Wednesday, November 11, 2009 - 02:40 pm:

ivor

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Wednesday, November 11, 2009 - 03:51 pm:

Hi Peter
Chart looks good, and indicators O.K.
But for me, I've missed the boat I think.
Buy was $1.20 to $1.25 level.
Don't think there is enough in it at this stage to justify the risk. Will sit and watch.
Hope you're in below $1.25 and sitting pretty.
Good luck with it.
Cheers
Ivor

peterloh

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Wednesday, November 11, 2009 - 03:59 pm:

I bought in at $1.24 but also bought in on Monday and Tuesday. I also bought more at $1.35 today.There is some way to run yet as it is in the XAO and the S&P ASX 200, it should get some attention from fund managers as the price goes up.This is only my take and I am only hoping that it will turn up my way.

ivor

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Wednesday, November 11, 2009 - 04:36 pm:

Peter -

Often see on your threads that you buy into shares several times. I'd like to ask you -
Do you sell the same way ?
Doesn't this cost you a lot in Brokerage ?

Personally I hate paying Brokerage (think it's too high compared to US) and only ever buy once and sell once.

What's the advantage of your method ?

Regards
Ivor

peterloh

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Wednesday, November 11, 2009 - 05:00 pm:

ivor, I normally do it first in anticipation and as more confirmation comes through I added to it. I won't classify myself as a short term trader.I normally ride the trend. I find that I get better results this way. Gone are the days when I am concern with brokerage. This is also the reason that I never comment on your other threads, firstly I did not have the time and I try to keep out of something I don't know enough of. I apologise for not commenting on all your threads as you could have thought that we were rude in not doing it. I find that it is difficult enough for me to trade a handful of them that I know and understand the characteristics of. I don't sell everything in one go, if the trend is still on. I may trade 25% or even 50% 0f them. For instance, I still have PBG bought at 40c,
$1 and recently bought again at $1.24 plus plus for a shorter term trade. Does it make sense? Because of this my stakes is more than the usual 2.5% of the capital. It is more like 5% and I only trade on shares that I know about and normally it is the boring same shares.

ivor

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Wednesday, November 11, 2009 - 05:23 pm:

Peter
That's very interesting.
But I don't have the patience to do that.
Like playing the game too much, like the buzz when a good plan comes together.
Try to sell within a month, and rarely hold more than three months.
Even better if I can buy and sell within a week or two.
How many shares do you keep a watch on?
Regards
Ivor.

peterloh

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Wednesday, November 11, 2009 - 06:16 pm:

My weekly watchlist is a maximum of 25 shares. Daily, perhaps 5 only. This week I have watched 4 so far that I can do something with, ie LYC,BLY, PBG and ABC. I think the 4 of them you and hershy have posted on one time or another.
There is one share that I keep out of even when I know I can make from a quick short trade, ie BOL. It is just not worth it. I find that they are still giving excuses for under performance. There are many good shares, one can trade and make money out of without the baggage.I need to know the shares that I am trading, however boring they are.I learned from some of the people here, however the good and humble type do not waste their time and do not usually hang around.I enjoy trading and like to make some money out of it. I have a plan and try to stick to it. My biggest challenge is to hang on and not take profit out of all the shares that I bought earlier in the year.I forecast a 4 years cycle and I hope that I still have some of the shares in the 4th year, not all of them but at least some of them.I also try not to hang on to shares that goes up and down in a range and not trending upwards.
I bought a lot of resource shares in the earlier part of the year, like ABY, MGX,PEM, MCR,CEY,MRE,OZL,KZL and LYC recently. I also have a dud, which I have to do something about it.
I still have OST,ABC,CSR,MAH,PBG,QAN,IPL and some LPT, ALZ,MCW,GPT,GMG. I bought quite a few BLY last week and it is becoming good just then.

ivor

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Wednesday, November 11, 2009 - 07:15 pm:

Peter -

Thanks for the information.
I appreciate that you have taken your time to explain your system.
I find it very interesting. And I admire your patience.

Regards
Ivor

peterloh

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Tuesday, November 24, 2009 - 11:52 am:

The Bollinger Bands of PBG are tightening again with RSI staying above 50 which is a bullish sign. It looks like PBG is likely to burst upwards anytime now.
On the fundamental side,Bank of America has become the latest substantial share holder of PBG.With Christmas arriving and the ozzie $ continued to be strong, retail in Australia is having the benefits.Retailers, especially the importers will be having a good year.DYOR if you consider trading PBG.

peterloh

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Thursday, January 07, 2010 - 12:03 pm:

I have been trading PBG for some time now from a low of 40c. Recently Paradice Investment sold out at around $1.32 and the SP came down to $1.06. Since then Bank of America has been accumulating PBG and became a substantial shareholder as per ASX report.
The SP of PBG has been moving up steadily for the last 2 weeks. PBG is due to report in February, the SP of PBG may give an indication how it fared during the Christmas Season.

hershy

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Thursday, January 07, 2010 - 08:35 pm:

I know B of A is accumulating PBG shares but have you guys noted that there is a H&S pattern that points to 90 cents ?
It appears that the target will not be reached.

I've been on my cruise ship for 3 days and have not left my cabin yet. There are two doors in my cabin. One leads to the bathroom and the other has a sign on the door knob that says "Do not disturb".

http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/

hershy

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Saturday, January 23, 2010 - 06:12 pm:

PBG still consolidating in the same area. I fear if $1.10 does not hold then 90 cents is next. The H & S may yet fulfil it's prediction. I won't post a chart, it looks pretty similar to the last one.

Don't worry about what people think; they don't do it very often.
There is always one more imbecile than you counted on.

http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/