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     hilarius
Member
Username: hilarius
Post Number: 1683
Registered: 04-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, April 05, 2006 - 02:12 pm: |  
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Good Afternoon
The 2 minute chart shows concerted stop loss raids ending in kangaroo tails today, following recent prices over $ 5
This first selling wave this morning shook out many nervous nellies at low prices
A 2 minute equivolume chart would reveal the volumes on the downswings and on the upswings
Is this more manipulation by the smart bar stewards who lurk around trying to trap the unwary?
Or is the trading genuine and legitimate profit taking?
The kangaroo tails look highly suspicious to me
Hilarius
I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities
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redrover
Member
Username: redrover
Post Number: 247
Registered: 04-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, April 05, 2006 - 03:04 pm: |
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Just looking through the course of sales data - there are many very small volume trades there that could not be executed by folks like us through our on-line broker (EG Commsec) as they would fall below the minimum requirements.
For example 1 share @ $5.16 at 10:11:42, 4 shares @ $5.06 at 10:48:39, 26 shares @ $4.90 at 11:12:58
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deanrosario
Member
Username: deanrosario
Post Number: 1101
Registered: 11-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, April 05, 2006 - 03:15 pm: |
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Hilarius, I'm a daytrader and I find it difficult to derive any useful meaning from the 2-minute chart of one of the most liquid instruments on the market - the SPI.
Note: This does NOT mean the 2-minute chart doesn't provide useful information, but, rather, I don't find it useful.
Given that you have a trading timeframe that is greater than 1 trading day, I'm keen to understand what type of information you would expect to derive from the 2-minute chart of a relatively illiquid stock (I don't know anything about PDN but I don't think it's in the ASX100)?
Best wishes
Dean
"Never commit yourself to anything you can't walk away from in 30 seconds." Neil McCauley (played by Robert de Niro) in 'Heat'.
"I spent a lot of money on booze, birds and fast cars - the rest I just squandered." Georgie Best (1946-2005)
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hilarius
Member
Username: hilarius
Post Number: 1685
Registered: 04-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, April 05, 2006 - 03:43 pm: |
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Dear Dean
Unaddicted as I am to screen watching I occasionally find it instructive to watch intra-day price behaviour
PDN is in the list of CMC traded stocks and is something of a trader's darling with significant swings and daily volume
What I look to see is the sinister behaviour of day traders who I believe drive the price down in order to buy in greater quantity than they have sold
If you sit on enough quantity bought below a dollar then it is a win win if you can sell for over $4 and maybe drive the price to a point where you can buy back at a profit especially if you have a long term hold on the majority of your holding
I would specifically exclude my esteemed colleague Nightstalker from this sort of behaviour since I know he is a keen fundamentalist who would never trade this stock without absolutely legitimate reasons, and who may be able to confirm he has a long term view of it. I am interested to hear his latest thoughts and whether he continues to hold.
What I am looking to see is where the sinister sellers snap up stock driving up the price again and regularly creating tell tale kangaroo tails
Regardless of the size of corrections which can be very significant I am suspicious that the real agenda is to create buying opportunities when the price is driven down
Of course I could be totally mistaken ... after all what does a humble friar know?
With Best Wishes
Hilarius
I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities
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deanrosario
Member
Username: deanrosario
Post Number: 1102
Registered: 11-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, April 05, 2006 - 04:52 pm: |
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Hi Hilarius
As usual you want to understand the "why" behind the facts, whereas simple me just needs to know the facts!!
The problem I see with understanding the "why" from any one particular move is that it becomes totally irrelevant after the fact.
Let's assume your conspiracy theory is correct in relation to PDN.
Is it not possible that, if the same facts (i.e the same price pattern on a 2-minute chart) were to present on any future day in relation to PDN, it may not necessarily be due to the same "why behind the fact"?
Hence, understanding today's "why" becomes meaningless.
Also, does it not follow that ...
if one needs to know the "why" behind a particular move today, surely, it also means one has to know the "why" behind every move on every day, otherwise one's backtesting will be based on assumptions that are incomplete and/or inconsistent?
Best wishes
Dean
PS: I hope I haven't confused you with my brand of logic - having re-read my post I think I've confused myself!!!
(Message edited by deanrosario on April 05, 2006)
"Never commit yourself to anything you can't walk away from in 30 seconds." Neil McCauley (played by Robert de Niro) in 'Heat'.
"I spent a lot of money on booze, birds and fast cars - the rest I just squandered." Georgie Best (1946-2005)
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hilarius
Member
Username: hilarius
Post Number: 1686
Registered: 04-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, April 05, 2006 - 05:12 pm: |
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Dear Dean
To know the what, where, when, who and how much would be very interesting
I think all trades should have a visible trader name obtained via a central registration process, which clearly reveals whether the trader is an individual, a corporation or other entity, and in fact who the trader is. Trusts should be required to disclose the beneficiary name which would be a separately identified trader/investor
All sorts of privacy c**p would be raised as objections as it is in so many walks of life for utterly irrelevant reasons these days
Given that my battle for transparency is a losing one which may never evoke even a whisper of support I am forced to revert to answering your question
I think in essence what you are asking is what do today's 2 minute chart features have to do with anything that may happen tomorrow, or in the next week or more?
My point is that if selling raids (downward spikes) with tell tale kangaroo tails occur regularly with almost instantaneous mopping up of available stock on offer so that the price springs upwards again ... this is a possible signature of underlying buying strength, albeit somewhat sinister in form
This may indicate coming strength in future days
Transparency would be present if an EQUIVOLUME chart displayed volume on the downward run (perhaps even going to a 1 second chart), and volume in the upward buying which followed
In the age of computers this should be easy
Where there is a will there is a way
I would like to see more clearly what the bar stewards are doing, but failing that the kangaroo tails on the 2 minute chart raise my active suspicion level to what can only be termed "insatiable curiosity"
I go further and buy a few when I see these downward spikes
Taking a long term view of course
Hilarius
(Message edited by Hilarius on April 05, 2006)
I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities
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tony_m
Member
Username: tony_m
Post Number: 616
Registered: 01-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, April 05, 2006 - 06:25 pm: |
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Hilarius, one always wonders about manipulation and at times the strange patterns that appear suggest unusual things happening. However I tend to think that the real culprit is mainly the pervasive use of automated stoplosses which have become so widespread that someone tooting a horn in the street is likely to set off a bout of stoploss cascade selling, sometimes small sometimes large, hence the kangaroo tails.
Whether someone is smart enough to use auto stoplosses to their advantage is a moot point....Tony_M
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napolian
Member
Username: napolian
Post Number: 2
Registered: 10-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, April 05, 2006 - 06:24 pm: |
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You have to wonder how many traders does it take to drive down the price of a share over the price of a day... 5... 10...15...??? If they could manipulate the market on several shares throughout the year (not getting greedy) they would have control the direction and so make a tidy sum. Would we call them a gathering of traders??? An association of traders maybe??? A club of traders??? Or dare I say it... a forum of the little buggers?
Yes it would be nice to be in an organised group of traders who could manipulate the market and get the funds on a regular basis, much like bank robbery really only on a smaller scale. Bearing in mind, at this stage, it is not illegal.
Mind you, eventually, it come back and bite them in the arse.
On the other hand, if this forum sees it happening an emergency bell could go of... a broadcast of emails let's say and then this forum could ride the tails of these unscrupulous traders and then the spoils of their ill gotten gains could be shared.
The group of traders would get wise after a while when they realise that someone else is fingering there game and they no longer have total control, and total control is paramount to a scam like this. This may give them cause to re-think and they might even stop stuffing up the market and would let honest traders go about their business.
Then again... isn't business ruthless? Doesn't business mean getting as much money as you can from the other guy?
I look at what happened to Paladin today as act of organised crime without it actually being a crime. Go figure... they found a loop hole in the law which someday will be closed.
Just a thought from an onlooker.
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deanrosario
Member
Username: deanrosario
Post Number: 1103
Registered: 11-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, April 05, 2006 - 07:32 pm: |
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There are specific sections of the Corporations Act that make it a criminal offence to engage in behaviour that amounts to market manipulation.
As with many similar sections of the Corporations Act, it is always difficult to prove the offence occurred beyond reasonable doubt.
In my opinion, such proof would be made much easier by people sending any form of electronic communication amongst themselves.
From what I can gather, it is possible for the techies to find electronic footprints long after you think you've deleted the offending data.
Having said that, I think it is possible for people with significant cash reserves to treat some markets as their playground.
"Ambushing the market" by attacking the thin side of the market is definitely possible for traders with significant cash reserves.
An example of how a large trader can ambush the market can be found here and, whilst I cannot validate its authenticity, it sounds very plausible and is worth a read.
http://www.camron.com.au/mainpage.htm
Dean
PS: I'm not advocating the use of any of the systems/software on the website (indeed, I haven't even read what they're trying to sell) but there is a lot of useful information for all traders.
"Never commit yourself to anything you can't walk away from in 30 seconds." Neil McCauley (played by Robert de Niro) in 'Heat'.
"I spent a lot of money on booze, birds and fast cars - the rest I just squandered." Georgie Best (1946-2005)
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dug
Member
Username: dug
Post Number: 991
Registered: 07-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, April 05, 2006 - 08:41 pm: |
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Would someone post a 2minute chart for today,please?
I've only access to a 1 and 5 minute chart and the only significant 'kanga tail' seems to be at or around 11am when the whole All Ords dipped.
I see it dropped below this tail low in the following hour and at 3pm.The most significant volume occured at these times too.
A 11am dip level that subsequently is fallen below again in the following hours does not put a 'waft on the draft' of conspiracy,manipulation blahx3 IMHO,it indicates someone selling out and punters gobbling it back up[the price].
I'm surprised that an Accountant of your stature in this forum,Hilarius,is so encouraging of this Paladin.
You,Hilarius,who fly the flag for Fundamentals,have you done any figuring on this share PDN that is gunner enlighten the World.
 It's not a turn on of Lightbulbs,Hilario but of TULIPS.
I figure there is 445mil shares on issue.
I see the projection of Earn 2007/8 is 9.3 cents.
At only $5 that is a 54 PE when the production starts,that is.
Plucking figures out of my head I use a 11 PE as being 'Proper' for this one mine wonder.
With the share register Closed[at 445 mil]PDN needs to make 45 cents EARNINGS for a $5 share to have a 11PE.
Are you getting the Picture?
I see TULIPS.
Now PDN has been a wonderous example of the Inner Workings of the ASX.10cents to $5 is a better game than OZ Lotto,more likely like BUT
Australia with all it's safeguards,high tech equip and ALL that Palaver STILL turned the showers for the workers up there in the Territory Radio ACTIVE in this Era.[it was in the newsparers the water from washing out the U308 "accidently"got diverted into the showers.]
ERA ran it's own version of Conservation,last seen in BELSEN 
What seriously do you really think a African Uranium mine will operate?Get on par with Freeport maybe?
I stray because,well,I despair.
You'll all see it as clear as a ,well,sunbeam? one day when the Mania lifts.
Anyhow ignore me but I'd still like to see a 2 minute chart if only so I can spot d'Conspiracy.
cheers,
jr
Avatar- PHACOPS{speculator}from the Devonian Period.
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hilarius
Member
Username: hilarius
Post Number: 1687
Registered: 04-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, April 05, 2006 - 09:24 pm: |
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Dug
I am not in the business of recommending PDN ... I've been in and out and anytime I'm in it is for a very short term flutter rather than the long haul
I simply said I thought the kangaroo tail phenomenon is suspicious .. but I also pointed out I could be completely wrong
If I was looking for a long term interest in uranium it would be far more likely to be BHP that I would consider
At the moment I am not sure why some countries are considered "safe" buyers of the stuff & the uranium stocks could easily head south if Taiwan becomes a hot issue between China and America however peaceful China's intentions with uranium might be
Disclosure: I hold PDN on a highly short term basis and BHP for the longer haul
Not sure my online provider allows me to copy its charts on to this forum ... even if Colin thought it OK
I would certainly like to see 1 or 2 minute equivolume charts in IC sometime in the far away future, realising as I do that the IC people already have a lot on their plate and are providing a fine hourly service
Hilarius
(Message edited by Hilarius on April 05, 2006)
I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities
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dug
Member
Username: dug
Post Number: 992
Registered: 07-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, April 05, 2006 - 10:09 pm: |
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I hope I wasn't read as inferring you were a tout,Hilarius.I just found it 'interesting' that you had not applied some equations to this popular share.
You are absolutely correct to think BHP and RIO when Oz Uranium exports are 'freed'.THEY have the operational mines in the politically stable country.
I think it is just neo-colonialism to imagine mining companies operating in Africa have some edge in going into production and they won't be competed off the board by the likes of BHP when and if they [the afro co's]eventually have all the required funding to dig their first hole.
I don't see what the investors/punters in BTV,Summit and all the rest of the Explorers are thinking.Do they really figure that Olympic Dam is at Full Capacity etc and etc?
Anyway,all the forum will know when the trend has bent and THEY won't be caught up in the
'maybe it'll come back.The price dropped while weak hands worried,Stay Strong only warped freaks blah agin Uranium'
and the bad news rolls with price dropping getting explained away as Stop Loss Raids,kangaroo tail thumps.
I wonder what happens when the ONLY ONE's buying are topping up their existing holdings.No new blood on the Register just the Topper Ups?
Anyway not my problem.I won't post no more on this thread.
Hope a 2min chart can get posted though.
cheers,
jr
Avatar- PHACOPS{speculator}from the Devonian Period.
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daz
Member | |
