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     jimm
Member
Username: jimm
Post Number: 4
Registered: 04-2007Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, April 25, 2007 - 10:16 am: |  
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Hi All
With IC stock screener is there away that I can set a search for when the macd crosses the signal line and is below zero.
This is a fairly strong signal of a possible uptrend,if it can not be done is there any possibility this search could be included in the future.
I have given an example of what I mean
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msparks
Member
Username: msparks
Post Number: 986
Registered: 10-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, April 25, 2007 - 01:41 pm: |
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try this
or add this
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visions
Member
Username: visions
Post Number: 46
Registered: 09-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, April 25, 2007 - 03:51 pm: |
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Hi Jimm
I can see what you mean by this might be the start of a uptrend as the macd lines are usually under the zero lines when the price is flat or in a down trend.
In the chart below I have displayed the macd as you have, and as you can see the crossing of the signal lines whilst it is below the zero line has turn out many false promises.
In this case it has crossed many many times only to take the price back up to the downward trending MA's, certainly not finding the start of an uptrend. At the right edge of the screen you may have finally cracked it right this time.
Cheers .... Visions
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tryhay
Member
Username: tryhay
Post Number: 571
Registered: 09-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, April 25, 2007 - 04:44 pm: |
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Interesting discussion. Last week I attended the Melbourne ATAA meeting where both speakers were excellent. One speaker discussed using MACD to time trading of shares.
His point was that for ideal entries one needs to look for alignment between the monthly, weekly and daily MACD signals (and Vica versa - to get out of the trade is they turn turtle). Of course it is difficulty to achieve but the charts displayed suggested that a +ve cross in signal line on one time may align with a cross on another time frame, and if the trifector occurs then you better buy into that stock pronto.....
If you are interested/desperate you could consider adopting the approach (I am giving it a whirl).
A useful post msparks, FWIW 999 seems to be sufficient on the bear MACD. Looks to find shares on the initial comeback trail from downtrend. eg ARW looks like a good one ..(with DMI & volume too)...
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jimm
Member
Username: jimm
Post Number: 5
Registered: 04-2007Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, April 26, 2007 - 12:18 am: |
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Hi All
Thanks for all your input.
To Msparks,I will test your suggestion over the next couple of days.Thanks.
Yes visions I know what you are saying,I use MACD with other indicators.But that particular position on the chart seems very powerful.I mainly use for conformation purposes.
Yes tryhay I agree.It is an indicator that I havn't been using but I will do a lot more testing with it.(anything to improve my strike rate).
Thanks again for all you input.I would like to hear any other suggestions or uses for MACD.
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tryhay
Member
Username: tryhay
Post Number: 572
Registered: 09-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, April 26, 2007 - 07:07 am: |
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Jimm et al,
As a practical example of this discussion DYL looks like a classic: increasing volume (& Price) action (looks to be retesting a breakout of a downtrend breakout), increasing daily MACD (after recently crossing the zero line), increasing weekly MACD (looks like a cross of the signal line occurring as we speak). A number of other indicators also look +ve ~ just not sure on the time frame of future price action,but it looks more +ve than -ve IMO.
Daily Chart:
Weekly SP chart: looks to be behaving...
Monthly: recent cross of the MACD zero line and looks to be behaving...More to the point all three MACD time frames are in the +ve (top) half of the range [and they are all +ve]~ not sure how often that happens but seems to be a good sign for dyl
bought in last week & tempted to buy more today - my guess is as long as you do not expect >10% in the short term I think you are pretty safe ~ lets see what unfolds!
On another matter, have accepted the PDN offer & untill SMM_PDN sort themselves out the smaller Uranium shares look to be where the action will be... Check out STELLAR DYOR
(Message edited by tryhay on April 26, 2007)
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fibonacci
Member
Username: fibonacci
Post Number: 189
Registered: 10-2003
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, April 26, 2007 - 08:01 am: |
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Good morning all,
If you must use indicators/MACD use weekly as an initial filter and then daily to help fine tune entry.
It's easy to see using tryhay's top graph. Weekly MACD turned positive [>0] in October. AS long as it stays positive scan for Daily MACD crossover signals below zero.
Check out XJO. Weekly turned positive in June '03 and has stayed there. EVERY daily crossover below zero has been great and will be, UNTIL THE LAST ONE!
John
You've got to
know when to hold 'em
know when to fold 'em.
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visions
Member
Username: visions
Post Number: 47
Registered: 09-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, April 26, 2007 - 10:29 am: |
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Hi again everyone.
I have included the monthly, weekly and daily Macd views on my previous chart. Same amount of time frame and same stock, you will be able to see what the other posters are saying in regards to the timing of crossovers in the longer timeframes.
I'd have to agree to trade in the direction of the longer timeframe and find entries in the shorter time period.
Cheers .... Visions
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msparks
Member
Username: msparks
Post Number: 987
Registered: 10-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, April 26, 2007 - 04:29 pm: |
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Try this from the scan Jimm
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jimm
Member
Username: jimm
Post Number: 6
Registered: 04-2007Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, April 27, 2007 - 12:07 pm: |
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Thanks ms
I'm doing testing now with some variations
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qed
Member
Username: qed
Post Number: 55
Registered: 01-2006Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, April 27, 2007 - 01:57 pm: |
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hi Jimm ,try putting in the figs 30 10 10 into ur macd cheersQed
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jimm
Member
Username: jimm
Post Number: 7
Registered: 04-2007Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, April 27, 2007 - 05:02 pm: |
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Thanks qed.
I tested that with a few stocks,didnt seem to make a lot of difference.But I will play around with it a bit more.
Thanks
Jim
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ohkoolnutz
Member
Username: ohkoolnutz
Post Number: 558
Registered: 10-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, April 27, 2007 - 11:41 pm: |
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You are trying to prove that a MACD crossover in some specific setup is a good trading signal by looking for situations where the MACD crossover was followed by a rise in price.
It shouldn't be too difficult to prove if you ignore the millions of cases where a MACD crossover was followed by a fall in price.
People have posted plenty of charts showing the positive outcome. Nobody has pointed out situations where this scenario failed hence failure must not exist.
---
ohk
Lies, Damn Lies and Technical Analysis
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tryhay
Member
Username: tryhay
Post Number: 573
Registered: 09-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, April 28, 2007 - 06:54 am: |
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Good point ohkoolnutz - your comment applies to any proposed trading system: whether simply price volume etc. In an effort to improve probability of success one needs to fine tune the set up using confirmatory indicator/other trading rule/s.
That is where personal preference (artistic flare) is relevant to the trader - and DYOR is relevant here: rather than the slavish adoption of "dribble" sproked by individuals on this or other share trading websites.
Anecdotally lots of ppl depend on MACD to trade successfully & if ppl here are interested they will report success/failure on the site for all to see. I think all would welcome examples where MACD on multiple time frames has failed as a predictive indicator.
Nevertheless Happy trading
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visions
Member
Username: visions
Post Number: 48
Registered: 09-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, April 28, 2007 - 09:21 am: |
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Hi Ohkoolnutz,
In my post no:46 I have shown an example where this situation has failed many times. The crossover has happened over 20 times straight and the price kept falling, making each trade a losing situation.
Cheers .... Visions
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jimm
Member
Username: jimm
Post Number: 8
Registered: 04-2007Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, April 28, 2007 - 10:38 am: |
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Hi all.
When I started this thread my objective was to find stocks that had an MACD crossover below the zero line.msparks gave me a great setup for IC screener which I am using.
My reasons were quite simple;it seemed at first glance that there was more chance of a continued uptrend if the MACD crossed below zero.I am still evaluating this.
I must stress this is not my only criteria for entering a trade.
Using the latest UGL chart(updated from my original post)
You can see the cross over occurred on the 22 March.
But I would not have entered the trade then!
I was waiting for a cross of the OBV which occurred on the 3 April.And a closing price above the 30 day MA which occoured on the 10th April.(this was also confirmed by the 5 and 10 day MA crossover)}Then I entered the trade.
Now I know this isnt a perfect and does not work every time,So there is no point in posting charts that contradict me.(you can if you want)
My sole purpose for going down this road was to improve my strike rate.If it only helps me by 1 or 2 percent i'll be happy.
We are all trying to get that little edge over the market,and we are always looking to improve our trading plans.That is all I am trying to do here.
Have I discovered a world beating system,of course not.
Many of my trades dont work out,but I am trying to improve my strike rate all the time without making wholesale changes to my trading plan.I suppose you could call it continued refinement.
Thanks again for everyones input
JIM
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jimm
Member
Username: jimm
Post Number: 9
Registered: 04-2007Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, April 28, 2007 - 11:35 am: |
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Visions chart of TAW is interesting to me for a number of reasons.
Yes on 3 year chart it looks bad,but within that time frame I found a number of opportunities for a successful short term trade.(I am a short term trader).
I would not have traded TAW in that time,or in fact ever the liquidity is not good enough,with only 2 or 3 trades daily sometimes none,and volumes of only 20,000 on some days,It is not a good stock to trade.I only trade shares in the ASX300 and the S&P500 with a minimum of 200,000 volume.
Having said that I noted that I could have made 20% profit using my trading plan between the 25 Sep 2006 and the 9Oct06.Buying at 20.5c and selling at 25.5c on increasing volume.I also noted there was no sales on the 26th Sep!
Liquidity is the name of the game for me.
For long term investors I suggest blue chip stocks.
And for gamblers the penny dreadfuls.
TAW is not stock that I would ever take seriously at the moment,but who knows what the future may bring.
JIM
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jimm
Member
Username: jimm
Post Number: 10
Registered: 04-2007Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, April 28, 2007 - 11:47 am: |
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Ps.
To visions I hope you didnt buy TAW in Dec 03 when it was $2.10.Closed yesterday at 19.5c.
JIM
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tryhay
Member
Username: tryhay
Post Number: 577
Registered: 09-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, April 29, 2007 - 01:16 pm: |
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Isnt it interesting how our view on the world skews out interpretation of the same events. FWIW Visions & ohkoolnutz your comments posted in this thread prove the point of the speaker in melbourne (mentioned in my post # 571 above): "His point was that for ideal entries one needs to look for alignment between the monthly, weekly and daily MACD signals".
Visions why do you think your post above is true? "In my post no:46 I have shown an example where this situation has failed many times. The crossover has happened over 20 times straight and the price kept falling, making each trade a losing situation". Your thesis is correct because you are not considering the wider context: you are set up to fail (unless you trade using the daily MACD for day trading).
Similarly for ohkoolnutz "It shouldn't be too difficult to prove if you ignore the millions of cases where a MACD crossover was followed by a fall in price"
The example both of you refer to demonstrates the MACD not in alignment over the suggested time frames; and your charts and the chart below demonstrate that.
Question: Do you think TAW is going to be worth buying in the near future? Why or Why not?
Weekly chart:
I suggest that it looks like a Blind freddie in the process of setting up
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ohkoolnutz
Member
Username: ohkoolnutz
Post Number: 560
Registered: 10-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, April 29, 2007 - 03:52 pm: |
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I had successes based on MACD but I just wasn't comfortable with the failures. There is no point in me talking down somebody else's system simply because I fail to see merit in it. I use what I find comfortable with and so should everybody else.
---
ohk
Lies, Damn Lies and Technical Analysis
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visions
Member
Username: visions
Post Number: 49
Registered: 09-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, April 30, 2007 - 06:14 pm: |
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Hi Jim and all
The original question asked about the possibility of a Macd screening search by Jim, which was answered by Msparks. Excellent, job well done, end of story!
In viewing the original post and with no knowledge of how Jim trades I was a little concerned that he might be using just the daily Macd crossover, whilst it was under the zero line to trade. That is why I responded with a chart of TAW to illustrate maybe the dangers of this setup (using only Daily Macd) to find his entries.
Since then I have found out that Jim is more experienced than I had info on and he uses other research to justify his entries and my concerns were maybe not necessarily needed. Excellent, job done, end of story!
Would I have traded TAW or have I? No Jim, for the same reasons as you, I would not have!
Just trying to help out.
Cheers ..... Visions
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ohkoolnutz
Member
Username: ohkoolnutz
Post Number: 561
Registered: 10-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, April 30, 2007 - 07:20 pm: |
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I would have traded TAW not because of the MACD but because of the low risk high return possibility. The downtrend was broken on March 30. The low was at $0.097 which would have given you a low risk entry at $0.100 with 4% stop loss at $0.096. If pulled off your return would have been 175% which gives you a risk-return ratio of 4%/175%.
---
ohk
Lies, Damn Lies and Technical Analysis
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jimm
Member
Username: jimm
Post Number: 12
Registered: 04-2007Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, May 01, 2007 - 10:30 am: |
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Hi All
My apologies Visions,I have just re-read my post #8 and it sounded like I was putting you down a little that was not my intention,I should have made my position clearer at the time.I value your input on this thread.
Jim
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visions
Member
Username: visions
Post Number: 50
Registered: 09-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, May 03, 2007 - 01:57 pm: |
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G'day Jim
No worries mate, as they say a chart is a chart and movements in the price will reflect in the indicator that we are looking at. As you were only looking for entries using the Daily Macd which measures the distance between the two moving averages, I didn't think it really mattered which stock I put up on display.
If I put up BHP or some other highly liquid stock (that was good for trading) and the moving averages or price was behaving exactly the same as the TAW example, the Daily Macd would display the same as well. When a couple mentioned about the thoughts on trading TAW (if it was good or bad or if I would trade it) I felt this point was missed because volume has no part in the indicator as I know you would be fully aware of.
I know you have your answers now Jim but since your original post was about entries using the Daily Macd I will give a couple of my thoughts on Trading TAW if I only had that indicator to trade by. Nothing else! No Price graph, no Volume, no Weekly or Monthly charts or any other indicators.
Just a Daily Macd 26-12-9, can we trade with this alone for entries? Sure it would be very helpful with other confirmation but as in this case I have only the Daily Macd to use, let's give it a try.
Sometimes I just look at the indicator alone and make myself work out what is basically happening with the stock.
Having a little trouble uploading my attachments so I will follow up with my thoughts in a post soon.
Cheers .... Visions
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jimm
Member
Username: jimm
Post Number: 15
Registered: 04-2007Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, May 03, 2007 - 03:43 pm: |
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Ok visions.
Look forward to it
Jim
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visions
Member
Username: visions
Post Number: 51
Registered: 09-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, May 03, 2007 - 05:11 pm: |
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Follow up to last post on Daily Macd only.
My thoughts only on using Daily Macd alone.
When the macd lines are hovering around the zero line (just above and just below) the share price is going sideways. If they are well above the zero line and cross down and then cross back above one another without going below the zero line it is starting to trend upwards. If it continues to do this numerous times it is in a good bullish trend and the same for the opposite below the zero line which would be a bearish trend.
Once you see that the daily macd is well on one side of the zero line for a while you can be pretty sure the weekly macd will be in a positive agreement as well without needing to look.
I'm only looking for entries here, money management and stop losses I'm not going into, just enties with Daily Macd.
Now since I have no other info besides this daily Macd it would be silly of me to trade short term not knowing if there was enough volume to get in and out. So that leaves me in a position not to trade countertrends, so I will trade with the trend because it's lasting the longest time in that direction, giving me the best chance to sell if maybe there is no sale on 1 day or low volume on another.
Now in my first post no:46 (also see below, Macd chart, in the same time frame as that post) you will note the macd lines are well below the zero line for a lengthy time, a bearish trend. So in this time period I would be finding entries to short the stock each time the macd crossed below it's signal line under the zero line. Numerous entries to short. I would not be trying to pick the bottom by going long on a crossing up under the zero line here.
Maybe sometimes which I'll explain below in the second chart why I would.
Jim about Dec 03, my thoughts and chart.
In June-July 03 the share price jumped as you can also see in the macd, rising well away from the zero line then it settled down going sideways in price and the daily macd hovered around the zero line confirming this. In late Oct 03 the macd took off again confirmed by price but when the macd came back down in the beginning of Nov 03 it did not get down as close to the zero line indicating a bit of a trend starting so it's time to go long when it crossed back above which it did so on the 25th Nov 03. We're in at around $1.23, so depending on your stops, anything up to as you say $2.10 or I think the top was around $2.16. Not too bad for trading a daily macd only. If only!! :-)
Tryhay, thanks for your input as well, you asked.
"Question: Do you think TAW is going to be worth buying in the near future? Why or Why not?"
In viewing the Daily Macd only to comment as I have above, the macd has now moved above the zero line indicating maybe a change of trend.
But I must note here when I view this event happening it might be just a very good countertrend and it might still continue down as in the past if you look back. Remember I'm only using this indicator alone, I still need confirmation so after it has gone above the zero line I will wait for a pullback in the lines and make sure when it crosses back above the signal line it is well above the zero line so then and only then we will have a trade.
But as we know nothing is guaranteed, time will tell, have your stop loss in. :-) Also as I said before with the daily macd well above the zero the weekly should be looking a little more positive now.
Hopefully this exercise might help a little understanding of the Daily Macd. Most are probably switched on and know all this and are probably quite able to pull it to bits but maybe it might help a newbie starting out to get a hang on it and move forward.
Sorry about the long post hope it makes sense, putting it all together in this little posting box makes it hard.
Many thanks Jim for bringing up the Daily Macd Post.
Cheers .... Visions
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