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     stoian
Member
Username: stoian
Post Number: 296
Registered: 03-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, January 05, 2007 - 02:37 am: |  
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Hi Colin,
You said:."...
because the 50% retracement often coincides with support at the previous peak. See Trend Strength for an illustration."
Therefore your quote, were also:
"Trend Strength
There are three main indicators of the strength of a trend:
1) Movement in the direction of the underlying trend;
2) Correction or consolidation before the primary trend resumes; and
3) Support and resistance at the preceding high...."
So, I will ask you ONLY:
Are you already aware about THE FACT, that: APPROXIMATIONS=ESTIMATIONS OF A TREND-LINE=CURVES, CAN BE MANY=MIRIADS, BUT ONLY ONE FROM THEM IS REPRESENTING THE "BEST FIT" INDEED!!!
And this approximation=estimation for THE MOST PROBABLE TREND, is given ONLY by the HIGHEST LEVEL OF THE INDICATOR, called R-SQUARED!!!!!
The question remains open: Are you interested IN THE HIGHEST LEVEL of the R-SQUARED=THE BEST FIT, or not?
If NOT, than you cannot do THE MOST ACCURATE=PROBABLE FORECAST, but ONLY THE MOST RANDOMLY=ACCIDENTALLY=EXCEPTIONALLY FORECAST!
Regards,
Doru Stoian
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maxima
Member
Username: maxima
Post Number: 15
Registered: 11-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, January 05, 2007 - 09:13 am: |
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Stoian,
A few suggestions:
Please learn to express yourself in coherent written English.
Please exclude or minimise the use of uppercase print (it is commonly interpreted as 'shouting').
Technical Analysis is about probabilities; there is no one correct method. Please try to be a little less dogmatic in your opinions especially when commenting on those whose T.A. knowledge is most likely very much greater than your own.
Cheers, Maxima.
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colin_twiggs
Member
Username: colin_twiggs
Post Number: 2736
Registered: 09-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, January 05, 2007 - 04:52 pm: |
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Doru,
Look at any stock chart and you will see that prices do not move in either straight lines or curves. The best-fitting curve or straight line does not necessarily give the best indication of what price is going to do next.
Regards,
Colin
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stoian
Member
Username: stoian
Post Number: 297
Registered: 03-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, January 05, 2007 - 09:32 pm: |
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Hi Colin,
Thanks for your opinion!
But, i am sure You are also already knowing, that Mathematics was giving us two kind of models=patterns for explaining the VARIABILITY and VARIANCE of an evolution in time, which in fact is a single one model=pattern:
1) The Fixed-effects model, or what i call the SACRED, the HOLY or the DIVINE one, which is showing us ONLY THE TRUTH ABOUT AN EVOLUTION, or what we are knowing through the term called VARIABILITY;
2) The Random-effects model, or what i call the PROFANE one, which is showing us ONLY what we are knowing through the term called VARIANCE.
The first model=pattern, is showing and explaining us ONLY the VARIABILITY of an EVOLUTION, or the evolution in time of the MEAN itself.
The second model=pattern of an EVOLUTION, is showing and explaining us ONLY about the VARIANCE ALL (A)ROUND THE VARIABILITY of an EVOLUTION, but NOTHING ABOUT THE TREND=VARIABILITY.
Through her many perturbations in time, the single role of the VARIANCE, is TO HIDE from our eyes THE REAL PLACE of the MEAN in time, or to hide the RIGHT=CORRECT DIRECTION of the VARIABILITY=TREND in time from our eyes, BUILDING AN ILLUSION about HER TRUE DIRECTION.
The highest level possible for the R-squared indicator, is THE SINGLE ONE INDICATOR, who is REVEALING us both of the most important aspects for our activities:
a) THE TRUE=MOST PROBABLE DIRECTION OF THE TREND, OR THE VARIABILITY,
and
b) THE TRUE=MOST PROBABLE DISTANCE FOR PERTURBATIONS, OR THE VARIANCE -THE FALSE=WRONG TARGETS- BETWEEN THE SUPPORT AND THE RESISTENCE AROUND THE EVOLUTION OF THE TRUE MEAN IN TIME!
I am waiting further for your constructive opinions.
I hope that you are A TRUE ARCHITECT whose happiness is not build on people`s ignorance or false proud, as they are loving to play "a game" they are not understanding very well!
Regards,
Doru Stoian
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maxima
Member
Username: maxima
Post Number: 16
Registered: 11-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, January 05, 2007 - 10:25 pm: |
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stoian,
I have tried to be polite but you have totally ignored my well-meaning suggestions and persist with your inane babble.
The subject of this discussion is suggestions for the inclusion of Fibonacci levels in the I.C. platform. Your posts have nothing to do with this subject (or any other rational issue that I can discern) so please desist from further posts (preferable) or start your own discussion subject.
I am also finding the emails of your posts both tiresome and annoying when the purpose for my choosing this option is to be kept in touch with posts relevant to the discussion.
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stoian
Member
Username: stoian
Post Number: 298
Registered: 03-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, January 06, 2007 - 03:40 am: |
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Dear Maxima,
Please - before accusing/charging me about everything - to look at first inside of this topic, on my chart about the FORECAST made in October 2005, for the evolution of the EUR-USD parity until April 2006, and you will see that in October 2005, the EUR-USD parity was quoted to 1,19-1,21, and in April 2006 it was already climbing to the 1,2644 level, also predicting the higher level of 1,33 till the end of 2006!!!!
Such a good forecast, beside many others made by me, like for the OXB.L, weren`t possible without representing the quotes and their approximations=estimations INSIDE OF A "QUALITY CONTROL CHART", or INSIDE OF THE GAUSSIAN PROBABILITY FIELD.
I was happy as i heard, that Colin will give in the future for his clients, the representation of an evolution ON A PROBABILITY FIELD=CHART, even if such an aspect was meant - i thought, only for the beginning - inside of the Fibonacci`s Field of Probabilities exclusively, and not inside of the Gaussian`s Field of Probabilities already.
Are you thinking indeed - if you are looking for explaining and forecasting for your self, or for other people - it will be so simple to have success, through overlap A SINGLE ONE PATTERN=TEMPLATE, made of an EXACTLY increase in 5 steps=waves, and an EXACTLY decrease of 3 steps=waves, having the Fibonacci`s distances between each of them, on every empirical evolution of the stock market, or of the forex market???????
Regards,
Doru Stoian
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rederob
Member
Username: rederob
Post Number: 2162
Registered: 10-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, January 06, 2007 - 02:04 pm: |
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Maxima
I have no problems with Doru's posts.
This is not email or chat room, so using upper case is only offensive if you want to regard it so: I see value in using upper case for emphasis as this site's capacity to easily/quickly embolden is not exactly state of the art.
He is certainly on topic, so if you do not want to read them, you have a solution available.
You need also revisit your personal treatise on politeness.
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zorba
Member
Username: zorba
Post Number: 140
Registered: 12-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, January 06, 2007 - 06:06 pm: |
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Maxima
I haven't seen you complain about 'inane babble' previously - there's been lots.
You seem to really be 'overloaded' with Christmas cheer and good will - pity you haven't extended it here.
Have a nice new year.
As the Irishman said, 'Anyone who's not confused here doesn't really understand what's going on'.
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ingot54
Member
Username: ingot54
Post Number: 1632
Registered: 05-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, January 06, 2007 - 06:41 pm: |
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Doru - I have read of your work on this over past months, and obviously you are on to something, or you would not be persisting.
Unfortunately I am not trained in mathematical probabilities, and I am not familiar with Gaussian theory etc.
But I do respond well to the visual appeal of charts.
I know that in the past you have put charts on the forum to explain your work, and I wonder if you would please do that again for us.
I believe that would improve relations with others on the forum also - not everyone understands your approach. However, I am really interested to examine anything new or different, which may point to the probability of an outcome occurring true to prediction, or at least a higher probability than random occurrence or movement.
Please continue to post these theories, but in simpler language if you are able to.
Maxima - it is easy to see the source of your frustration with Doru - and I hope keeping it in this thread can allow Fibo stuff to continue in a purer form - I am interested very much in that too.
I too have a problem getting to the bottom of what Doru is intending to say, but he is Romanian, and I am fortunate that he is bothering to share in his "best English" something that may benefit all of us.
I don't speak the Romanian language very well, so just have to accept what I am offered by one who does.
Keep Smiling
Trading style: CFD's predominantly long term.
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colin_twiggs
Member
Username: colin_twiggs
Post Number: 2740
Registered: 09-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, January 07, 2007 - 06:22 am: |
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Abraham Maslow said, "When the only tool you have is a hammer, every problem begins to resemble a nail." We have to be careful not to view the problem only from the perspective of the tools at hand.
Variability and variance in statistics are based on the concept of a mean. We need to recognize that predicting the mean/ changes in the mean is not the same as predicting actual prices.
To give a simple example: A child playing hopscotch hops from one foot to the other. If we study the statistics we may be able to predict the mean (and the probability of whether the next hop will land on the left or right foot), but an observer with no pre-conceptions may detect the pattern (say L-L-R-L-R-R-L) and predict the outcome with far greater certainty.
Regards,
Colin
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ingot54
Member
Username: ingot54
Post Number: 1635
Registered: 05-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, January 07, 2007 - 08:35 am: |
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... or far less certainty!
Colin - the mean is only that.
Expanding further, even a Moving Average can only reflect past action - NWS being a classic case of a yo-yo-type activity in the closing price. It is almost predictable in its meanderings - once it begins to rise, it continues a strong move, and vice versa.
My mathematical ability is limited to managing the calculus, and a bit of geometry. However, looking at the chart below of NWS, I can predict that the price MAY rise to over $29 before falling to around $27.50.
How is that covered in the mathematics and formulae?
The human brain sees what it wants to - particularly this is displayed in the diversity of chart interpretation, and the multitudinous time frames we individuals like to use.
But the best predictor is STILL price action - from the right side of the chart.
Reinforcing agents (for me - another variant!) are volume moves, breaks of support and resistance and one or two moving averages - which brings us full circle back to classic tools.
I am always interested in acquiring other tools ... with thanks to Abraham Maslow, whose greatest achievement was to point out that self-actualisation is the pinnacle of human needs.
I think there is actually a higher pinnacle, but that's another story.
Keep Smiling - Don't look back
Trading style: Chartist Artist _ Breakouts and Shakeouts.
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brand
Member
Username: brand
Post Number: 27
Registered: 09-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, January 07, 2007 - 09:12 am: |
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Stoian must be smokkin some good stuff!!!!!!!!!
I CAN RESIST ANYTHING BUT TEMPTATION.
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ohkoolnutz
Member
Username: ohkoolnutz
Post Number: 411
Registered: 10-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, January 07, 2007 - 09:23 am: |
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Imagine the following experiment:
A random selection of 100 stocks occurs. All must meet specific criteria such as average volume and days since IPO.
We have two groups of people. Each person is kept apart from another person. People of the same group are kept apart to not influence their selections. The reason we group them is to get a larger batch of sample data.
One group of people is given the price action and asked to make a selection of ten possible trade candidates. After having done so they are given a set of TA indicators to make their final single selection.
The other group of people is given a set of TA indicators and asked to make a selection of ten possible trade candidates. After having done so they are given the price action to make their final single selection.
Which group of single selections will perform better as a group portfolio?
What will the variance (of stock selection occurences) within each group be?
Has anybody ever done such experiment?
---
ohk
Lies, Damn Lies and Technical Analysis
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