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stoian

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Post Number: 296
Registered: 03-2004

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Friday, January 05, 2007 - 02:37 am:

Hi Colin,

You said:."...
because the 50% retracement often coincides with support at the previous peak. See Trend Strength for an illustration."

Therefore your quote, were also:

"Trend Strength

There are three main indicators of the strength of a trend:
1) Movement in the direction of the underlying trend;
2) Correction or consolidation before the primary trend resumes; and
3) Support and resistance at the preceding high...."

So, I will ask you ONLY:

Are you already aware about THE FACT, that: APPROXIMATIONS=ESTIMATIONS OF A TREND-LINE=CURVES, CAN BE MANY=MIRIADS, BUT ONLY ONE FROM THEM IS REPRESENTING THE "BEST FIT" INDEED!!!
And this approximation=estimation for THE MOST PROBABLE TREND, is given ONLY by the HIGHEST LEVEL OF THE INDICATOR, called R-SQUARED!!!!!

The question remains open: Are you interested IN THE HIGHEST LEVEL of the R-SQUARED=THE BEST FIT, or not?

If NOT, than you cannot do THE MOST ACCURATE=PROBABLE FORECAST, but ONLY THE MOST RANDOMLY=ACCIDENTALLY=EXCEPTIONALLY FORECAST!

Regards,
Doru Stoian

maxima

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Post Number: 15
Registered: 11-2002

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Friday, January 05, 2007 - 09:13 am:

Stoian,

A few suggestions:

Please learn to express yourself in coherent written English.

Please exclude or minimise the use of uppercase print (it is commonly interpreted as 'shouting').

Technical Analysis is about probabilities; there is no one correct method. Please try to be a little less dogmatic in your opinions especially when commenting on those whose T.A. knowledge is most likely very much greater than your own.

Cheers, Maxima.

colin_twiggs

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Friday, January 05, 2007 - 04:52 pm:

Doru,

Look at any stock chart and you will see that prices do not move in either straight lines or curves. The best-fitting curve or straight line does not necessarily give the best indication of what price is going to do next.

Regards,
Colin

stoian

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Post Number: 297
Registered: 03-2004

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Friday, January 05, 2007 - 09:32 pm:

Hi Colin,

Thanks for your opinion!

But, i am sure You are also already knowing, that Mathematics was giving us two kind of models=patterns for explaining the VARIABILITY and VARIANCE of an evolution in time, which in fact is a single one model=pattern:

1) The Fixed-effects model, or what i call the SACRED, the HOLY or the DIVINE one, which is showing us ONLY THE TRUTH ABOUT AN EVOLUTION, or what we are knowing through the term called VARIABILITY;
2) The Random-effects model, or what i call the PROFANE one, which is showing us ONLY what we are knowing through the term called VARIANCE.

The first model=pattern, is showing and explaining us ONLY the VARIABILITY of an EVOLUTION, or the evolution in time of the MEAN itself.

The second model=pattern of an EVOLUTION, is showing and explaining us ONLY about the VARIANCE ALL (A)ROUND THE VARIABILITY of an EVOLUTION, but NOTHING ABOUT THE TREND=VARIABILITY.
Through her many perturbations in time, the single role of the VARIANCE, is TO HIDE from our eyes THE REAL PLACE of the MEAN in time, or to hide the RIGHT=CORRECT DIRECTION of the VARIABILITY=TREND in time from our eyes, BUILDING AN ILLUSION about HER TRUE DIRECTION.

The highest level possible for the R-squared indicator, is THE SINGLE ONE INDICATOR, who is REVEALING us both of the most important aspects for our activities:

a) THE TRUE=MOST PROBABLE DIRECTION OF THE TREND, OR THE VARIABILITY,
and
b) THE TRUE=MOST PROBABLE DISTANCE FOR PERTURBATIONS, OR THE VARIANCE -THE FALSE=WRONG TARGETS- BETWEEN THE SUPPORT AND THE RESISTENCE AROUND THE EVOLUTION OF THE TRUE MEAN IN TIME!

I am waiting further for your constructive opinions.

I hope that you are A TRUE ARCHITECT whose happiness is not build on people`s ignorance or false proud, as they are loving to play "a game" they are not understanding very well!

Regards,
Doru Stoian

maxima

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Post Number: 16
Registered: 11-2002

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Friday, January 05, 2007 - 10:25 pm:

stoian,

I have tried to be polite but you have totally ignored my well-meaning suggestions and persist with your inane babble.

The subject of this discussion is suggestions for the inclusion of Fibonacci levels in the I.C. platform. Your posts have nothing to do with this subject (or any other rational issue that I can discern) so please desist from further posts (preferable) or start your own discussion subject.

I am also finding the emails of your posts both tiresome and annoying when the purpose for my choosing this option is to be kept in touch with posts relevant to the discussion.

stoian

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Saturday, January 06, 2007 - 03:40 am:

Dear Maxima,

Please - before accusing/charging me about everything - to look at first inside of this topic, on my chart about the FORECAST made in October 2005, for the evolution of the EUR-USD parity until April 2006, and you will see that in October 2005, the EUR-USD parity was quoted to 1,19-1,21, and in April 2006 it was already climbing to the 1,2644 level, also predicting the higher level of 1,33 till the end of 2006!!!!

Such a good forecast, beside many others made by me, like for the OXB.L, weren`t possible without representing the quotes and their approximations=estimations INSIDE OF A "QUALITY CONTROL CHART", or INSIDE OF THE GAUSSIAN PROBABILITY FIELD.

I was happy as i heard, that Colin will give in the future for his clients, the representation of an evolution ON A PROBABILITY FIELD=CHART, even if such an aspect was meant - i thought, only for the beginning - inside of the Fibonacci`s Field of Probabilities exclusively, and not inside of the Gaussian`s Field of Probabilities already.

Are you thinking indeed - if you are looking for explaining and forecasting for your self, or for other people - it will be so simple to have success, through overlap A SINGLE ONE PATTERN=TEMPLATE, made of an EXACTLY increase in 5 steps=waves, and an EXACTLY decrease of 3 steps=waves, having the Fibonacci`s distances between each of them, on every empirical evolution of the stock market, or of the forex market???????

Regards,
Doru Stoian

rederob

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Saturday, January 06, 2007 - 02:04 pm:

Maxima
I have no problems with Doru's posts.
This is not email or chat room, so using upper case is only offensive if you want to regard it so: I see value in using upper case for emphasis as this site's capacity to easily/quickly embolden is not exactly state of the art.
He is certainly on topic, so if you do not want to read them, you have a solution available.
You need also revisit your personal treatise on politeness.

zorba

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Registered: 12-2003

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Saturday, January 06, 2007 - 06:06 pm:

Maxima
I haven't seen you complain about 'inane babble' previously - there's been lots.
You seem to really be 'overloaded' with Christmas cheer and good will - pity you haven't extended it here.
Have a nice new year.

As the Irishman said, 'Anyone who's not confused here doesn't really understand what's going on'.

ingot54

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Saturday, January 06, 2007 - 06:41 pm:

Doru - I have read of your work on this over past months, and obviously you are on to something, or you would not be persisting.

Unfortunately I am not trained in mathematical probabilities, and I am not familiar with Gaussian theory etc.

But I do respond well to the visual appeal of charts.

I know that in the past you have put charts on the forum to explain your work, and I wonder if you would please do that again for us.

I believe that would improve relations with others on the forum also - not everyone understands your approach. However, I am really interested to examine anything new or different, which may point to the probability of an outcome occurring true to prediction, or at least a higher probability than random occurrence or movement.

Please continue to post these theories, but in simpler language if you are able to.

Maxima - it is easy to see the source of your frustration with Doru - and I hope keeping it in this thread can allow Fibo stuff to continue in a purer form - I am interested very much in that too.

I too have a problem getting to the bottom of what Doru is intending to say, but he is Romanian, and I am fortunate that he is bothering to share in his "best English" something that may benefit all of us.

I don't speak the Romanian language very well, so just have to accept what I am offered by one who does.

Keep Smiling

Trading style: CFD's predominantly long term.

colin_twiggs

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Sunday, January 07, 2007 - 06:22 am:

Abraham Maslow said, "When the only tool you have is a hammer, every problem begins to resemble a nail." We have to be careful not to view the problem only from the perspective of the tools at hand.

Variability and variance in statistics are based on the concept of a mean. We need to recognize that predicting the mean/ changes in the mean is not the same as predicting actual prices.

To give a simple example: A child playing hopscotch hops from one foot to the other. If we study the statistics we may be able to predict the mean (and the probability of whether the next hop will land on the left or right foot), but an observer with no pre-conceptions may detect the pattern (say L-L-R-L-R-R-L) and predict the outcome with far greater certainty.

Regards,
Colin

ingot54

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Sunday, January 07, 2007 - 08:35 am:

... or far less certainty!

Colin - the mean is only that.

Expanding further, even a Moving Average can only reflect past action - NWS being a classic case of a yo-yo-type activity in the closing price. It is almost predictable in its meanderings - once it begins to rise, it continues a strong move, and vice versa.

My mathematical ability is limited to managing the calculus, and a bit of geometry. However, looking at the chart below of NWS, I can predict that the price MAY rise to over $29 before falling to around $27.50.

How is that covered in the mathematics and formulae?

The human brain sees what it wants to - particularly this is displayed in the diversity of chart interpretation, and the multitudinous time frames we individuals like to use.

But the best predictor is STILL price action - from the right side of the chart.

Reinforcing agents (for me - another variant!) are volume moves, breaks of support and resistance and one or two moving averages - which brings us full circle back to classic tools.

I am always interested in acquiring other tools ... with thanks to Abraham Maslow, whose greatest achievement was to point out that self-actualisation is the pinnacle of human needs.

I think there is actually a higher pinnacle, but that's another story.

nws

Keep Smiling - Don't look back

Trading style: Chartist Artist _ Breakouts and Shakeouts.

brand

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Sunday, January 07, 2007 - 09:12 am:

Stoian must be smokkin some good stuff!!!!!!!!!

I CAN RESIST ANYTHING BUT TEMPTATION.

ohkoolnutz

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Sunday, January 07, 2007 - 09:23 am:

Imagine the following experiment:

A random selection of 100 stocks occurs. All must meet specific criteria such as average volume and days since IPO.

We have two groups of people. Each person is kept apart from another person. People of the same group are kept apart to not influence their selections. The reason we group them is to get a larger batch of sample data.

One group of people is given the price action and asked to make a selection of ten possible trade candidates. After having done so they are given a set of TA indicators to make their final single selection.

The other group of people is given a set of TA indicators and asked to make a selection of ten possible trade candidates. After having done so they are given the price action to make their final single selection.

Which group of single selections will perform better as a group portfolio?
What will the variance (of stock selection occurences) within each group be?
Has anybody ever done such experiment?

---
ohk

Lies, Damn Lies and Technical Analysis

maxima

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Post Number: 17
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Sunday, January 07, 2007 - 04:49 pm:

Hmmmm,

It seems that I have I have stirred up the ‘Sunni’ brigade (i.e. we don’t care how many people Saddam murdered – he was a good man because he looked after us).

rederob – in response to your critical remarks: Incredible Charts is ‘state-of-the-art’ imho. including the forum – please explain using examples of other Australian trading/TA sites why you disagree.

Uppercase IS bad form when used extensively and also more difficult to read. Please inform us of relevant sites where this is not the case.

What is ‘on topic’ about the following?

“Please - before accusing/charging me about everything - to look at first inside of this topic, on my chart about the FORECAST made in October 2005, for the evolution of the EUR-USD parity until April 2006, and you will see that in October 2005, the EUR-USD parity was quoted to 1,19-1,21, and in April 2006 it was already climbing to the 1,2644 level, also predicting the higher level of 1,33 till the end of 2006!!!! Such a good forecast, beside many others made by me, like for the OXB.L, weren`t possible without representing the quotes and their approximations=estimations INSIDE OF A "QUALITY CONTROL CHART", or INSIDE OF THE GAUSSIAN PROBABILITY FIELD.”

Besides hinting strongly at the fatal trader sin of ‘wanting to be right’ (rather than profitable) it has no practical relevance to the original topic of requesting Fib. Levels in IC which is no doubt why Colin has now relegated this discussion to another topic because the original relevant discussion has been hijacked. And, yes, I know that I can simply walk away from the forum and cut off the emails if I want to, but why shouldn’t I take a stand when I feel a topic that I have an interest in is sabotaged by inane babble from one particular participant?

And on that subject, why is it that you now feel compelled to post on this topic when you have not previously participated at all? I notice that you have been a member of IC for as long as I have been. In that time you have made 135 posts for every ONE of mine!! What is your agenda here?? Do you see yourself as some sort of vigilante pouncing on any topic at the first hint of controversy? My initial approach to stoian was quite polite; it only became less so when he comprehensively rejected my requests and insisted on continuing with his irrelevant tirade. I don’t have a “personal treatise on politeness” – being polite, but not being intimidated, is something that I was taught as a child and something, it would seem, that you have yet to learn.

zorba: Perhaps, unlike yourself, I don’t complain about other posters unless I have participated in the discussion and have elected to receive emails of further posts. What is your agenda here? Did I hit a raw nerve about the inability of someone to express themselves in coherent written English? If so, please have the courage to state that rather than implying some totally unsubstantiated mean spiritedness on my behalf!

And finally brand: I envy your ability for succinctness! ;)

rederob

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Sunday, January 07, 2007 - 06:09 pm:

Maxima
If you don't post elsewhere, and are happy here, so be it.
Doru's use of English may not be the best and his determination to present his view might not please everyone.
However, this thread is specifically titled "prediction techniques" and is now divorced from fib. Accordingly, Doru's post seem relevant.
Your point about the number of posts we respectively make on IC is not relevant to this topic.
And any assumption that because a reader is not initially posting on a thread he or she is therefore not reading it, or cannot join it at some point, has a poor basis.
The fact that I and perhaps others might not be conversant with the mathematical rigor underpinning the work of Gann (well known in the field of TA) or Gauss (equally well known in maths circles in relation to forecasting/probabilities) should not prevent us from following how people apply this in their quest to outperform the markets.

trumpcard

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Sunday, January 07, 2007 - 06:54 pm:

What's a discussion thread about prediction techniques without any input from Yogi?!!

ohkoolnutz

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Sunday, January 07, 2007 - 07:07 pm:

1. Buy a can of alphabet soup.
2. Prepare as instructed.
3. Serve in a bowl accompanied with a large spoon.
4. Put the spoon in the soup and raise it out of the soup.
5. Repeat step 4 until three letters matching a stock symbol appear.
6. Make a bet.

---
ohk

Lies, Damn Lies and Technical Analysis

rederob

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Sunday, January 07, 2007 - 07:54 pm:

ohkoolnutz
Thanks.
Belmont Holdings it is.

maxima

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Sunday, January 07, 2007 - 08:42 pm:

rederob,

I think your near complete failure to address the issues that I raised in response to your criticism says it all!

You are the type of person who delights in making unfounded criticism of others and then, when challenged, start mumbling denials and irrelevancies – no wonder you are evasive on the issue of post quantity.

Bear in mind that in future, if you join a discussion with the opening post being personally critical of another poster, you might get your head banged again.

Quality, not quantity should be our motto. Let this be a lesson to you. Learn to be polite instead of sprouting silly nonsense such as “personal treatise on politeness”.

tryhay

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Sunday, January 07, 2007 - 09:13 pm:

This thread suggests to me that it is time to short the XJO: perhaps there should be closer focus on the content being expressed rather than the "style" of writing used.

maxima - you seem to have a number of issues:
Please learn to express yourself in coherent written English

I'd like to see you expressing yourself on the romanian forum that Doru usually posts at (not something I am able to do) ~ and perhaps you (maxima) may choose to use other indicators to pick stocks (fib. or other indicators) but doru uses Prediction Techniques to choose stocks to trade; and is apparently proficient at it (a search of the forum should illicit examples).

Please exclude or minimise the use of uppercase print
My guess is that doru is using upper case to indicate key ideas - if you take it as shouting then who's problem is that?

FWIW I personally do not care what others choose as their preferred method of stock picking - but I believe this forum provides for broad approaches, and I appreciate being a member of it, and i trust the diversity of opinion is encouraged rather than shackled (provided the rules of the forum are being observed).

Mark

ohkoolnutz

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Sunday, January 07, 2007 - 09:17 pm:

BET_AX is actually not looking bad if you ignore the 99% of days where there is no trades happening. The MAs are looking good and the TMF is showing signs of accumulation. It's paying dividend too! You don't work for them, do you?

What is the point of a stock if there is no shares outstanding or if they are so tightly held it's basically a publicly-listed private partnership.

---
ohk

Lies, Damn Lies and Technical Analysis

colin_twiggs

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Sunday, January 07, 2007 - 09:58 pm:

I think the most important lesson to be learnt from this is:

If you object to a post, state this politely, as I think Maxima did. If your request is ignored, do not respond -- contact the moderator. This is most easily done by clicking the Report Abuse button.

You are not dobbing anyone in (perhaps someone can translate this for Doru who may not have access to an Australian dictionary) -- you are helping us to moderate the forum.

Regards,
Colin

maxima

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Sunday, January 07, 2007 - 10:18 pm:

Mark,

You have come in to this a bit late and perhaps don’t appreciate that until this weekend this discussion was in the “ Suggestions – Fibonacci Levels” topic until it was totally snowed by stoian and his off-topic rantings on probability theories.

I can probably express myself in Romanian as well as stoian can in English (which is not saying much) and which is why I don’t post on Romanian forums.

If stoian is using “upper case to indicate key ideas”, then he must be the greatest key ideas man of all time and it is a problem as it lowers the tone of commonly accepted behavior. If I used obscenities on the basis of legitimate expression and you objected, does that make it your problem? Incidentally it is ‘whose’; not “who’s (i.e. who is) problem – hoping you are not a school teacher but suspect that you might be and hence your defense of lamentable English expression. And while I’m at it, “illicit” examples (i.e. illegal, prohibited etc.)??...or perhaps you mean “elicit” (i.e. to bring out etc.) Now I get it! You’re Romanian too! :-)

)

maxima

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Sunday, January 07, 2007 - 10:31 pm:

Whoops,

Sorry Colin - did not see your post above and the email hasn't arrived as yet.

I take your point but there is still something not quite "Australian" in not trying to sort the matter out first internally rather than immediately appealing to the authorities.

I suspect that the real issue here might be political correctness (any criticism of a non Anglo-saxon is unacceptable etc.)

In this regard, fwiw, my wife in non Anglo-saxon and English was her third language.

rederob

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Sunday, January 07, 2007 - 11:42 pm:

Maxima
Are you reading your own personal biases into my posts to infer things that are not stated?
If you want me to reply to your points that are clearly off topic, then please open a new thread and I will afford you that courtesy.

maxima

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Monday, January 08, 2007 - 01:07 am:

rederob,

In answer to your question: NO!

I have already made my position perfectly clear in my post to you last night.

stoian

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Monday, January 08, 2007 - 04:30 am:

My dears,

I will follow the advise of Ingot54, to keep my language very simple.
Maybe so simple, exactly like I have already told to my shrink:

"Science is mystifying the knowledge!"

What i mean with this assumption of mine???

You know already - all of you - the beloved proverb used by the science called TA:

" "TREND" is you friend till the bend at the "END" "

But neither the TREND, nor the END, both given to you by the Technical Analyse aren`t PLAYING FAIRLY!!!

All what the TA is teaching you, beginning with the so called "TREND", and ending with the Fibonacci`s Levels of Retracement pretended to be Probabilities=Likelihoods, can only calling that :SCIENCE IS MYSTIFYING THE TRUTH=KNOWLEDGE!!!!!

And the freemasons, like W.D. Gann, are THE MASTERS OF MYSTIFICATIONS indeed.

But i should explain myself to you:

1)The so called "TREND", given to you by the TA, is NOT A TRUE FRIEND for investors and speculators, even if THE MOVING AVERAGE METHOD (MAM) is analysing a so called "CHRONOLOGICAL, OR TIME SERIES".

Proof:
Such a "TREND" is - neither ANY EXTRAPOLATIONS IN TIME (no possibility for a further advance of the LINE OF MEANS, of THE TRENDLINE in future time) nor ANY REGRESSIONS IN TIME (no possibility for a return of THE LINE OF MEANS, of THE TRENDLINE in past time) - never allowing.

Why, is such a "friend" NOT ABLE, NEITHER TO TELL YOU SOMETHING RIGHT ABOUT THE PAST, NOR TO PREDICT THE RIGHT FUTURE???
Because HE IS ONLY A DUMB FRIEND=MODEL OF APPROXIMATION=ESTIMATION, A MODEL WITHOUT AN OWN MEMORY, WHICH WAS NEVER ABLE TO LEARN=MEMORIZE SOMETHING, BUT IS EVER PRETENDING TO TEACH EVERY BODY ABOUT WHAT IS VERY ACCURATE=RIGHT=TRUE INSIDE OF AN EVOLUTION IN TIME!!!!

By the way okhoolnutz: You remmeber as I told you, that ONLY FUNCTIONS OF TIME ARE BUILDING A TRUE TREND INDEED: LIKE THE EXPONENTIAL MODEL (appropriate to research the evolution of indexes), OR THE POLYNOMIAL MODEL of a n-th degree, greather as 3 (appropriate for evolutions on the Forex Market, or for the evolution of certain titles of the Stock Market)????

2) And what about for an "END=LIMIT" should tell you, such a dumb friend like the TA`s "trend" is ?????

About the END=LIMIT of your PATIENCE, or about the END=LIMIT of you TRUST for him???

It gives an END=LIMIT for any EVOLUTION indeed, where SHE WILL BEND=RETURN, VERY PROBABLY, but NOT COMPLETELY SURE, because a small error - called also tolerance - must be ever assumed in anything (because nothing is, and cannot be perfect, "only friends are knowing why!)"!

And this is not only a LIMIT=an END IN TIME!!!
But is a LIMIT also for the LEVEL of her INCREASE, also for the LEVEL of her DECREASE, and also for her EQUILIBRIUM, or also called THE CENTRAL=PRINCIPAL=MEAN TREND (medium to long term) or TENDENCE (very short to short term) or also called the Central Limit Theorem of Leapunov.

But THE LIMITS IN PROBABILITY OF APPEARANCE OF A BEND=TURNING POINT=LEVEL for the evolution in time, are not the Fibonacci`s Levels of Retracement on both sides of the equilibrium`s level, because like I already told you many times before:
THE VOLUME OF THE SELECTION (also wrongly called AS A "SAMPLE" when not proved already to be so) MADE BY THE TECHNICAL ANALYSE, IS NOT REPRESENTATIVE ENOUGH TO ESTABLISH THE MOST PROBABLE (proved by the history) EQUILIBRIUM IN TIME, and to chose RANDOMLY=ACCIDENTAL such a level means NO SCIENCE, but BLIND_LUCK.

Proof:
Only THE GAUSSIAN FIELD OF PROBABILITIES, can tell you with the highest ACCURACY where THE LIMITS OF PROBABILITY=CERTAINTY ARE TO BE PLACED.

Regards,
Doru Stoian

(Message edited by stoian on January 08, 2007)

(Message edited by stoian on January 08, 2007)

hilarius

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Monday, January 08, 2007 - 07:12 am:

Good Morning All

I have been an interested student of Stoian's messages for a long time

I am hoping one day for a simple one sentence statement beginning "The Gaussian Field of Probabilities is more accurate because ............................."

As Stoian is far more proficient in English than I ever will be in Romanian, and because of the scope of his intellect (however difficult to understand), I am prepared to accord him the utmost respect while I await the clear exposition of the benefits of the Gaussian approach over others

In the meantime as a humble potato peeling friar I offer my own method in the following BSG chart which makes clear how much statistical noise there is in this share price, and I believe in many others

Mostly the price remains within the two centre quartiles so patience and calm are required

At the outer blue boundaries within which in excess of 97% of trades will occur statistically, there are warning signals indicating a trading opportunity

This is because when a stock approaches 2 standard deviations from its median price, reversion towards the median price (as a minimum) becomes a strong probability

This gives enough wiggle room to reduce or add to a current holding based on the longer term trend of the green median

I am currently awaiting hopefully a flattening of the down wave of the green median and a turn upwards as an indicator that entries could be considered

This will depend on market sentiment, index sentiment, stock sentiment and stock fundamentals, but the picture should tell the story

What my method does is eliminate all random variation from my thoughts ... most necessary for a friar who has taken a vow of silence if not of poverty.

I hope my maths are clear ... whether they are a patch on those of the distinguished Stoian remains to be seen

Any questions welcomed

With Best Wishes

Hilarius

bsg

I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

hilarius

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Monday, January 08, 2007 - 07:27 am:

PS I should have warned that major event such as a highly prices take over offer can move the price permanently above the previously established statistical boundaries ... and in that case there is minimal likelihood of reversion to the old median ... if a bidding war ensues and a takeover occurs

Other extraordinary events, such as a mine collapse, can have the same effect on the downside

The statistical approach is useful while no major unpredicted occurrences have occurred, but strongly changing expectations for the stock can reflect in a steepening uptrend or downtrend of the green median

It is also important to be aware that the final six points of the quartile boundaries and median adjust upwards or downwards in the light of prices not yet known, as those prices are built into the analysis

So what is now a falling green median at the right hand end can become flat or eeven turn up even for the published last 6 points

This is due to my secret formula of statistical herbs and spices which I am prepared to share with interested, disciplined and committed long term researchers

I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

rederob

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Monday, January 08, 2007 - 07:28 am:

Maxima
If it was never your intention to WANT a reply from me, you should have withheld your questions.
Given that I only queried your "manners", your responses to me would be difficult to judge as polite and debunks your own assertion; "...being polite, but not being intimidated, is something that I was taught as a child...".

Doru
The difficulty you will always have at a site such as this is that the myriad of technical indicators used are not being appplied to a specific event forecast at a specific point in time. Whereas, that is what you are stating your model can achieve.
I agree with you that the Gaussian Field can deliver a high degree of accuracy within defined probabilities, but I am not sure that IC is a site that wants to become known for "forecasting" stock prices, as distinct from suggesting a range of general trends based on conventially accepted technical indicators.

stoian

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Monday, January 08, 2007 - 08:05 am:

Hi all of you again,

I will give you another example about what I mean with a good forecast.
The first chart was built on the 19.09.2006, but in July 2006 I have made the forecast for the evolution of the parity USD-TRL.
The next 3 charts, are showing only THAT THE EVOLUTION WAS FOLLOWING VERY CLEARLY THE FORECASTED INTERVAL AND LIMITS.

Like Hilarius already said in his post, a good forecast means, that starting with the day as the forecast was made till the end of the forecast`s validity, the evolution will take place MOSTLY INSIDE OF THE GAUSSIAN PROBABILITY FIELD=INTERVAL (the interval for the most probable mean, and around this interval, in plus the interval for the most probable resistence and in minus the most probable interval for the support) and mostly following THE LIMITS OF PROBABILITY CALCULATED BEFORE AND SHOWN ON THE CHART.

I was only a little bit unsure at the beginning, because of a mistake made by the calculations, about how large should be the intervals for the support and for the resistence, but till the end i have discovered the mistake and made the correction.
But what I have told you already, THE MOST PROBABLE IMPORTANT INTERVAL FOR THE VARIATION OF THE MEAN=TREND=VARIABILITY, or what i call THE MOST IMPORTANT INTERVAL FOR THE MANIFESTATION OF THE FIRST TYPE OF RISK MENTIONED BY R.A. FISHER, WAS ALREADY REVEALED THROUGH MY FORECAST!!!!
It remains for the future, to see only if one of the intervals for the SUPPORT, or for the RESISTENCE WILL BE BROKEN.

All this charts=forecasts, and many others like the forecast for the evolution of EUR-HUF also, you will find them, if you need to verify me, that i am telling you the truth, and I have not made a fake forecast, on www.forumbursier.ro

Regards,
Doru Stoian

(Message edited by stoian on January 08, 2007)

(Message edited by stoian on January 08, 2007)

(Message edited by stoian on January 08, 2007)

hilarius

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Monday, January 08, 2007 - 08:19 am:

Hello Doru

You are so much more brave than me. adding a forecast area to your chart

I just go to the last actual and let my mind do the rest, since I know that trends MAY continue but the primary trend of major markets and sectors and individual stocks can suddenly reverse, as can intermediate trends

I am impressed by your technique, while still not fully understanding your maths

How about publishing some charts of ASX stocks for us to look at?

With Best Wishes

Hilarius

I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

rederob

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Monday, January 08, 2007 - 08:50 am:

Doru
You forgot to say that you post under a nick:
http://www.forumbursier.ro/index.php?action=profile;u=49

colin_twiggs

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Monday, January 08, 2007 - 09:45 am:

An interesting (though fairly technical) overview of prediction techniques:
http://www.dice.ucl.ac.be/Proceedings/esann/esannpdf/es2001-200.pdf

colin_twiggs

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Monday, January 08, 2007 - 10:58 am:

Maxima,

The moderator is more like a referee than a school headmaster. Most sportsmen would not hesitate to appeal to referee if they feel that the rules have been transgressed .... and will only take matters into their own hands if the referee ignores their appeals. Even then, levelling of personal scores is best done on the the blind-side of the scrum and not in full view of the public.

Regards,
Colin

cjb

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Monday, January 08, 2007 - 02:03 pm:

Colin, Thanks for the interesting article.

Stoian, If you like, you can express your idea/method in Romanian and PM it to me. I will then get it translated and post it back here. Include as much maths as you like. I will then get it put into simple English so other non maths people can understand it. I have been following what you have been saying for a while and it always seems to run into the same problem of people not understanding what you are trying to do. Maybe it is time for a clear explanation.

maxima

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Monday, January 08, 2007 - 02:11 pm:

Colin,

Point taken and fair comment.

(Spider, thanks for your support - you made my day! I have been impressed by your posts since the good old 'Snifter' years of 02/03)

Cheers to you both,
Maxima.

ingot54

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Monday, January 08, 2007 - 07:19 pm:

CJB

I for one would be eternally grateful (cliché only, don't get the servant's quarters ready yet) if Doru accepts your offer. I have known he has a message too, but I can not quite grasp the meaning.

Interesting link Colin - I found section 5. a bit broad -

5. Is it possible to forecast them?

Since the beginning of this century, the question of the predictability of financial series (at least of stock market prices) has been the subject of a highly controversial debate in finance.

Fama [1965], in its seminal paper, recalls the meaning of the random walk hypothesis (first proposed by Bachelier [1900]) and presents different empirical tests of it.

He concludes in those terms: "The main conclusion will be that the data seem to present consistent and strong support for the model. This implies, of course, that chart reading, though perhaps an interesting pastime, is of no real value to the stock market investor.”

The main theoretical argument of Fama is the notion of efficiency.

On efficient market, all participants receive all information at any time. In such circumstances (very improbable in fact), the only reason for a stock price to
move is the arrival of a new information which is impossible to forecast by definition.

With such an ideal representation of financial markets, what is surprising, it is the fact that most empirical works, mainly based on linear statistical tests, have conducted to the same conclusion in the years sixties and seventies, despite the heavy use of charts and technical indicators by the professional community.

However, as underlined by Campbell, Lo and MacKinlay [1997], "Recent econometric advances and empirical evidence seem to suggest that financial asset returns are predictable to some degree". Among those works, three of them have constituted main advances in this field. Brock, Lakonishok and Le Baron [1992] test two popular technical trading rules on the Dow Jones market index on the period going from 1897 to 1986. They use a bootstrap methodology to validate their results and conclude: "their results provide strong support for the technical strategies".

I am not sure I agree with "the only reason for a stock price to move is the arrival of a new information"

As well the summary appears a bit contradictory: "This implies, of course, that chart reading, though perhaps an interesting pastime, is of no real value to the stock market investor.”

and closes with

"their results provide strong support for the technical strategies"

Have I missed something important here?

Keep Smiling - Don't look back

Trading style: Chartist Artist _ Breakouts and Shakeouts.

stoian

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Monday, January 08, 2007 - 09:02 pm:

Ingot54 & All,

I can tell you, and you can PROOF VERY EASY with the help of historical charts, what kind of ARTIFICIAL, SO CALLED "UNEXPECTED=UNPREDICTABLE ACTIONS OR INFLUENCE", GENERATED EXCLUSIVELY FROM THE SIDE OF THE MAJORITY OF SHAREHOLDERS (WHO IS ACTING THIS STYLE LIKE GOD WERE ACTING - and WHO CAN KNOW BEFORE what is THE GOD`S WILL, when not THE INSIDERS like W.D. GANN??? - FOR THE MINORITY OF SHAREHOLDERS) AND NOT NATURAL ACTIONS=AS A SINGLE RESULT FROM THE BEHAVIOUR OF THE MARKET FORCES=MINORITY SHAREHOLDERS, but actions are making the prices TO RISE or TO FALL DOWN

TOO AN EXTREME=EXAGERATE=UNEXPECTED=UNBELEVABLE MANNER (in deep concordance with what i call The "Case of Modern Theory of Probabilities, or THE THEORY ABOUT A VIRTUAL WORLD=NEVER REAL=UNREAL=ONLY ILLUSORY" against The "Classic Theory of Probabilities", a case when you are throwing=droping a dice, AND THE IMPOSSIBLE=UNEXPECTED NUMBER 7 IS APPEARING)

OR

TILL BEFORE UNIMAGINABLE LIMITS OF THE EXISTENCE AND MANIFESTATION OF THE PRICE EVOLUTION INSIDE OF HIS HISTORY, OR WHAT I CALL:

GOING OUTSIDE FROM THE GAUSSIAN FIELD OF PROBABILITIES FOR THE VARIABILITY AND VARIATION, WHICH WAS ALREADY TESTED AND PROVEN IN DEEP RELATIONSHIP WITH THE PROVED AS A NORMAL=EXPECTED BEHAVIOUR OF THE "CROWD=HERD=MINORITY SHAREHOLDERS", WHEN SUCH POWERFUL PERTURBATIONS=DECISIONS ARE APPEARING!!!!

These actions are calling:

1) CAPITAL CONSOLIDATIONS, when the so called MARKET "LIQUIDITY" is falling all artificially - because is not conducted=generated by the market=crowd=herd=minority of shareholders, THEY ARE ONLY OBEYING THIS "NATURAL TREND=DIRECTION=PUSH" - GENERATING SO AN ILLUSORY DEMAND IN NUMBER=VOLUME OF SHARES ON THE MARKET, AND THEREFORE THE PRICES ARE ALSO GOING ALL ARTIFICIALLY TO HEAVEN.

2) CAPITAL SPLITS, when the so called MARKET "LIQUIDITY" is rising all artificially - because is not conducted=generated by the market=crowd=herd=minority of shareholders, THEY ARE ONLY OBEYING THIS "NATURAL TREND=DIRECTION=PUSH" - GENERATING SO, AN ILLUSORY OFFER IN NUMER=VOLUME OF SHARES ON THE MARKET, AND THEREFORE THE PRICES ARE ALSO GOING ALL ARTIFICIALLY TO HELL.

Everybody of you can see, that despite of such an EXCEPTIONAL acting style form the side of the majority of shareholders, THE MARKET=THE CROWD=THE HERD will remember very good FROM THE HISTORY where THE LEVEL OF EQUILIBRIUM IS, and THE MAJORITY WILL BOW DOWN=SUBMIT TO THE CROWD`S=HERD`S WILL, because WITHOUT A CROWD=HERD OF MINORITY SHAREHOLDERS IT GIVES NOT, NEVER, A TRUE AND HONEST=TRUSTFUL MAJORITY!!!!!!

But why are possible such TRAGEDIES on markets???
Because of the so called "MARKET AUTHORITIES", whom are not playing FAIRLY FOR AN EQUILIBRIUM ROLE FOR THE MARKET EXISTENCE AND MANIFESTATION, DESPITE OF THE SO CALLED MARKET ORGANISATION, but they are giving a hand of help - NOT LEAVING TO MANIFEST NATURALLY - TO CREATE RICHNESS FOR SOME AND POVERTY AND RUIN FOR OTHERS.

Your pension funds are investing elsewhere as on such markets?????

Regards,
Doru Stoian

(Message edited by stoian on January 08, 2007)

(Message edited by stoian on January 08, 2007)

stoian

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Monday, January 08, 2007 - 10:14 pm:

Colin,

Thank you for the article.
I have read it also.
But can you understand, like i already wrote in my previous article, about the reasons why it`s happen A NON-LINEAR=UNPREDICTABLE MARKET BEHAVIOUR OUTSIDE THE GAUSSIAN FIELD OF PROBABILITIES?????
You understand that such a behaviour IS INDUCED AND NOT PRODUCED ON THE MARKET?????
How is that possible????

Because THE MARKET=CROWD=HERD HAVE A FREEDOM INDEED, BUT ONLY TO OBEY=TO FOLLOW INDICATIONS=QUOTATIONS OF SOMEONE CALLED "AUTHORITY" or of the "MAJORITY of SHAREHOLDERS" (who is MOSTLY NO CORRECT=FAIR) AND IS NOT MOVING EVERY TIME - WHAT A PITY - FREE BY NATURE, OR ONLY LIKE THE GAUSSIAN DEGREES OF FREEDOM ARE SHOWING US BY THEIR LIMITS IN PROBABILITY???

You understand yet, why i am telling to the whole world of mathematicians, TO CONSIDER THE GAUSSIAN REPARTITIONS IN PROBABILITY AS NATURAL REPARTITIONS, AND NOT COMPULSORY AS "NORMAL" REPARTITIONS, because such GAUSSIAN repartitions in probability ARE ALLOWING ENOUGH FREEDOM FOR ALL?????

This is the difference between FREE BY NATURE MARKETS and A FALSE FREEDOM INDUCED BY "ORGANIZED" MARKETS.

They are authorities!
Why are they not changing "THE WAY IT IS"????
They dont need AN EQUILIBRIUM=ECONOMIC WELFARE FOR ALL IN PEACE????
Are they loving EXTREMES???
THEY DONT WANT TO KNOW=FORECAST WHAT THE FUTURE CAN BRING THEM, AT LEAST TO SLEEP WELL FROM THE ECONOMICAL POINT OF VIEW, IF FROM OTHER POINTS THEY WANT NOT????

So, "divide et impera", or "DISPERSE at the EXTREMES and WIN=buy to the lowest EXTREME and sell to the highest EXTREME, BOTH MADE=DONE BY YOURSELF, NO MATTER THAT THE MARKET=CROWD=HERD=MINORITY SHAREHOLDERS ARE SUFFERING TOO MUCH=UNEXPECTED AND INCREDIBLE"???????

Thank you for fighting peaceful for a BETTER WORLD AND MARKET!

Regards,
Doru Stoian

stoian

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Monday, January 08, 2007 - 10:43 pm:

For all,

Dont forget, that a LINE=TREND can be seen both ways: STRAIGHT or CURVE!!!

You have not to fear if you see her/him NOT STRAIGHT ANYMORE and that SHE/HE CURVES SOME TIMES!

This is ONLY AN ILLUSION, AND IS LIVING MORE OR LESS INTENSE SO LONG AS THE "WIZARD" NEEDS!

If you PAY GREAT ATTENTION ENOUGH TO LOOK AT HER CAREFULLY, FROM A CERTAIN ANGLE=POINT OF VIEW=AS PERMANENT CONTINUOUS IN TIME, you will see THAT THE LINE=TREND WAS, IS STILL AND WILL REMAIN EVER STRAIGHT, and ONLY TEMPORARY=DISCONTINUOUS IN TIME=ONLY FROM A MOMENT TO ANOTHER BUT NOT FOR THE WHOLE TIME, IS MUCH OR LESS TWISTED OR DISTORTED FROM HER/HIS STRAIGHT WAY.

For such ILLUSIONS we have to be "grateful" to the freemasonry.

Regards,
Doru Stoian

hilarius

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Monday, January 08, 2007 - 11:00 pm:

Doru

Your forecast chart for the XAO, XJO, or any of ASX top 20 stocks would be most interesting

Hilarius

I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

stoian

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Tuesday, January 09, 2007 - 12:33 am:

Hilarius,

And for how long do you think i should "support the Earth only on my shoulders", teaching the people when GOD is to be seen, and when not, that it`s the EVIL???

It is much more interesting indeed, but not for me anymore!!!!!

Maybe I was one of the TITANS, but is not enough, because i am not GOD HIMSELF to have this UNLIMITED=UNEXPECTED POWER TO PUSH THE LIMITS OVER THEIR EXTREMES!!!!!

Regards,
Doru Stoian

(Message edited by stoian on January 09, 2007)

stoian

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Tuesday, January 09, 2007 - 12:59 am:

Dear cjb,

Please be so good, and translate if you can, to our friends anglo-saxons, the words of the Romanian and Universal genius Mihai Eminescu:

"....
Ei doar au stele cu noroc si prigoniri de soarte,
Noi nu avem nici time, nor loc, si nu cunoastem moarte.
........."

Maybe they will better understand yet, the difference between APES (PRIMATES OF WHAT????) and HUMANS, both the result OF AN INTELLIGENT CREATION=REAL ARCH_I_TECTURE and NOT THE RESULT OF AN ILLUSION=FALSE=FAKE=SPECULATIVE ARCHITECTURE of the freemasonry (it seems to me, one of the most intelligent - with a remarkable pedigree - race of apes indeed. If I am wrong, therefore I have not to excuse me for this comparison, because i have told A TRUTH ALREADY)?????

Regards,
Doru Stoian

(Message edited by stoian on January 09, 2007)

(Message edited by stoian on January 09, 2007)

stoian

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Tuesday, January 09, 2007 - 03:29 am:

For all,

What i wanted to say in my previous post is ONLY that:

FEAR and GREED,
DEFINED BY SOME ANALYSTS
ARE DOMINANT FOR ANIMALS, LIKE THE APES ARE,
BUT HUMANS HAVE A RATIONAL BEHAVIOUR AS A DOMINANT,
BECAUSE OF THEIR HOLY=SACRED ORIGIN, NO MATTER THE NAME OF THEIR GOD=CREATOR=ARCHITECT!!!!

Somebody who is teaching us something else about the ORIGIN of HUMANS is not FAIR to us!!!!

Regards,
Doru Stoian

hilarius

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Tuesday, January 09, 2007 - 07:00 am:

Doru

I am not asking for the earth

Certainly I do not expect you to provide daily coverage of all Australian stocks

Just one chart of an Australian index or leading stock demonstrating your key forecasting principles (and ideally the formulas employed) would be helpful

I think generalities about man and God are interesting (I study them myself constantly) but this site is about charts of indexes and stocks, so a chart is a vital tool for our work here ... preferably a chart of an Australian stock or index

With Best Wishes

Hilarius

I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

ingot54

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Tuesday, January 09, 2007 - 07:30 am:

Doru - I agree with Hilarius

Let's stay close to the study at hand, and yes I would also value a view of the XJO.

While accepting that there is no perfect method, I believe your approach through Gaussian Theory DOES offer an alternative approach to LONG TERM market behaviour.

Your persistence is appreciated.

Keep Smiling - Don't look back

Trading style: Chartist Artist _ Breakouts and Shakeouts.

colin_twiggs

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Tuesday, January 09, 2007 - 07:45 am:

doru,

Dont forget, that a LINE=TREND can be seen both ways: STRAIGHT or CURVE

I repeat my earlier point: a trend is neither a line, a wave or a curve. It is a sequence of higher highs and higher lows -- more of a zig-zag interspersed with sideways consolidations.

Please save god/the origin of man for another thread.

Regards,
Colin

colin_twiggs

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Tuesday, January 09, 2007 - 07:56 am:

stoian,

CONSIDER THE GAUSSIAN REPARTITIONS IN PROBABILITY AS NATURAL REPARTITIONS, AND NOT COMPULSORY AS "NORMAL" REPARTITIONS, because such GAUSSIAN repartitions in probability ARE ALLOWING ENOUGH FREEDOM FOR ALL

Please can you provide readers with a link (preferably English) where they can read further on the subject.

Thanks,
Colin

jimdene

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Tuesday, January 09, 2007 - 10:02 pm:

I haven’t a clue, what the replies to this subject are all about, as I am just a humble High School leaver and so I must leave it to far more intelligent human beings than I to waffle on with. All I know is that, once again I am going well with my trend trading until the Yanks get the collywobbles and the Aussies get the frights and I am once again caught out too late in getting out

stoian

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Tuesday, January 09, 2007 - 11:06 pm:

Dear Colin,

Quote from you:
"I repeat my earlier point: a trend is neither a line, a wave or a curve. It is a sequence of higher highs and higher lows -- more of a zig-zag interspersed with sideways consolidations."

My answer is like I have told you already:

Technical Analyse is showing us, and teaching us, ONLY about AN ASPECT OF THE EVOLUTION IN TIME, called the VARIANCE (which is an INEXACT=UNSURE evolution, or like you already told us: an evolution in ZIG-ZAG, mostly about a very short interval of time)
BUT which IS OBEYING=IS FOLLOWING to the VARIABILITY (which is an ALMOST EXACT=ALMOST SURE=SMOOTHED evolution, in FORM OF A STRAIGHT LINE OR CURVE LINE, which is trying to approximate=estimate AT THE BEST SHE CAN, THE MEAN=PRINCIPAL ORIENTATION=DIRECTION OF YOUR ZIG-ZAG IN TIME).

But, about the VARIABILITY your TA is telling us nothing.
Why?
Maybe the TA dont know she exists!
Maybe nobody have teached TA about the existence of VARIABILITY and about her MEAN_ING IN TIME!
Why they have done this?

Because the VARIABILITY, THE FUTURE=NEXT CORRECT=MAIN=TRUE ORIENTATION=DIRECTION OF YOUR ZIG-ZAG, SHOULD REMAIN AN ENIGMA FOR PROFANE PEOPLE!

The Mathematics I have learned have teached me, that A TREND is a THEORETICAL FUNCTION, used for A CONTINUOUS APPROXIMATION=ESTIMATION IN TIME of YOUR UNSURE=DISCONTINUOUS EVOLUTION IN TIME, or for - like you already said - A ZIG-ZAG, in FORM OF A STRAIGHT LINE OR A CURVE LINE.

After the Mathematics, the Financial Theory and the Statistical Discipline have revealed me also, that SUCH A MEAN=PRINCIPAL MOVEMENT=DIRECTION=ORIENTATION=TREND - LINE OR CURVE - IS ONLY THAT APPROXIMATION OF ANY EVOLUTION IN TIME, WHICH SHOULD BE ALWAYS MADE FOR AN INTERVAL OF TIME GRATER AS 3 TO 5 YEARS.

Else, THE APPROXIMATION IS CALLING ONLY A TENDENCE, because she is revealing us ONLY A PART=A VERY SMALL TRUTH ABOUT THE MAXIMUMS AND MINIMUMS OF ANY EVOLUTION!

So, everybody is consciously yet about the FACT, that the Technical Analyse IS NEVER SHOWING US A TREND=MAIN DIRECTION=PRINCIPAL ORIENTATION OF THE ZIG-ZAG VALUES IN TIME INDEED, BECAUSE THE FORM OF APPROXIMATION=ESTIMATION SHE MAKES FOR THE ZIG-ZAG EVOLUTION OF VALUES, REMAINS FURTHER AN UNSURE=ZIG-ZAG EVOLUTION WHICH WE CANNOT TRUST.

This is happen, because the Method of Moving Averages used by the TA for the approximation=estimation of the MAIN DIRECTION=PRINCIPAL ORIENTATION IN TIME OF THE ZIG-ZAG VALUES, IS NOT A STATISTICAL AND MATHEMATICAL FUNCTION=MODEL=EXPRESSION OF VALUES INFLUENCED BY TIME, BUT IS ONLY A MODEL INFLUENCED BY HERSELF IN A SINGLE CORESPONDENCE=MANNER WITH THE NUMBER OF OBSERVATION ARE TAKEN INTO CONSIDERATION.

Colin, the freemason W.D. GANN have told you all already - BUT, WHAT A PITY, NEVER ENOUGH - about HIS SECRET METHOD OF FORECASTING=PREDICTING THE FUTURE MAIN DIRECTION=PRINCIPAL ORIENTATION OF AN EVOLUTION OF VALUES AS A FUNCTION=MODEL=EXPRESSION OF VALUES INFLUENCED BY TIME, and ALSO THAT YOUR POOR SHORT ZIG-ZAG=VARIANCE IS STRICTLY DEPENDING ON TIME AND IS ALSO FOLLOWING=OBEYING IN TIME, THE MAIN DIRECTION=PRINCIPAL ORIENTATION OF THE VARIABILITY=TREND.

Colin, I am sure you understand what mathematicians, most of them freemasons are understanding through the LAW OF GREAT NUMBERS, wich I call THE LAW OF INFINITE NUMBERS OF OBSERVATIONS MADE FOR AN EVOLUTION, so that any profane people SHOULD UNDERSTAND what the freemasons are MEAN_ING with it.

And you already know, that it gives:

1) A STRONG LAW OF CONVERGENCE OF VALUES IN TIME, TO A CERTAIN LEVEL=LIMIT=END OR NO END, THAT SOME EVOLUTIONS ARE OBEYING, TILL AN INFINITE NUMBERS OF OBSERVATIONS ARE MADE ABOUT THE RESPECTIVE EVOLUTION, IF NECESSARY;

2) and A WEAK LAW OF CONVERGENCE OF VALUES IN TIME, TO A CERTAIN LEVEL=LIMIT=END OR NO END, THAT ANOTHER EVOLUTIONS ARE OBEYING, TIL AN INFINITE NUMBERS OF OBSERVATIONS ARE MADE ABOUT THE RESPECTIVE EVOLUTION, IF NECESSARY;

The STRONG LAW OF CONVERGENCE FOR SOME EVOLUTIONS, is revealing us, that YOUR ONLY SEEMINGLY "NINNY STRING OF VALUES"="APPARENTLY CHAOTICAL"="RANDOM"="ACCIDENTAL"=ZIG-ZAG VALUES, ARE NOT SO INDEPENDENT VALUES IN TIME LIKE MR. TRICHET IS TELLING US, OR LIKE THE TECHNICAL ANALYSE IS FIGHTING WITH ALL FORCES TO CONVINCE US, BUT THE TRUTH IS

THAT THEY ONLY HAVEN`T LOOSING THEIR INDIVIDUALITY IN TIME.

They are also INTELLIGENT, because OF HAVING AN OWN MEMORY FROM THE PAST, SO THAT TO EVER FOLLOW=OBEY - EVEN FOR THE FUTURE - THE MAIN DIRECTION=PRINCIPAL ORIENTATION OF THE WHOLE VARIABILITY=TREND IN TIME.

This was the THEORETICAL SIDE=ASPECT of my lessons, but for your PRACTICAL SIDE=ASPECT, please, look at

a) any evolution of AN MARKET INDEX, and you will see - AT ANY MOMENT YOU WILL LOOK FOR THE FUTURE, EVEN TO INFINITE(you can broke the whole evolution till yet in parts, and after that, to add to the first part more and more the other parts, to see that the MAIN=PRINCIPAL DIRECTION=ORIENTATION IN TIME WAS NOT CHANGING THE FORM OF EVOLUTION)- A SINGLE KIND OF A MEAN DIRECTION=PRINCIPAL ORIENTATION IN TIME, AND HAVE MAINTAINED ALSO A CERTAIN -AND VERY PROBABLY THE SAME - LEVEL FOR THE VARIANCE=YOUR ZIG-ZAG AGAINST=AROUND THE MEAN=PRINCIPAL DIRECTION=ORIENTATION=TREND, and such evolutions should be approximated=estimated ONLY with an EXPONENTIAL, POWER, or LOGARITHMICAL FUNCTION=MODEL=EXPRESSION, because IN SUCH CASES IT GIVES NOT A CYCLICITY, BUT ONLY AN ALTERNANCE IN TIME OVER OR UNDER THE MEAN=PRINCIPAL DIRECTION=ORIENTATION=TREND IN TIME,

or

b) at the evolutions of the FOREX MARKET, like the evolution of the parity EUR-USD, or of the parity USD-TRL i have already shown you until yet, and you will see

THE UNCHALLENGED ASPECT FOR THE MANIFESTATION OF THE STRONG LAW OF CONVERGENCE OF YOUR VARIANCE=ZIG-ZAG IN TIME FOR SOME EVOLUTIONS OF THIS MARKET,

where such evolutions are to be approximated=estimated through THE POLYNOMIAL FUNCTION=MODEL=EXPRESSION, because OF THE CYCLICITY PROVED FOR MEDIUM TO LONG TERM.

This STRONG CONVERGENCE OF VALUES IN TIME, HELPS YOU TO MAKE ACCURATE FORECASTS, TO UNDERSTAND HOW WIDE EXACTLY CAN BE YOUR ZIG-ZAG=VARIANCE IN TIME, FOR THE REASON TO SPECULATE - TO BUY IN THE SUPPORT LIMIT AND TO SELL IN THE RESISTENCE LIMIT - AND TO UNDERSTAND THE IMPORTANCE OF THE GAUSSIAN FIELD OF PROBABILITIES, AND THE LAW OF LAPLACE FOR THE "NORMALITY" OF YOUR ZIG-ZAG=VARIANCE AROUND THE MAIN=PRINCIPAL TREND, FOR YOUR ANALYSE.

Do you REALLY understand good and you REALLY see the DIFFERENCE between ALTERNANCE and CYCLICITY manifested in time?????

If you really understand THIS DETAIL WHO IS MAKING THE GREAT DIFFERENCE, then you know that ONLY BY CYCLICITY, ANY GROWTH IN TIME WILL BE CANCELED BY THE SAME AMPLITUDE FOR A FALL.

DO YOU THINK SUCH A BEHAVIOUR IN TIME WERE A NATURAL ONE????
OR ONLY THE ALTERNANCE IN TIME, where the GROWTHS ARE FOR EVER STRONGER=BIGGER AS THE FALLINGS DOWN, UNTIL THE EVOLUTIONS DIES????

I have asked you about the difference between ALTERNANCE AND CYCLICITY, because i wanted to explain to you all, what`s about the WEAK LAW OF CONVERGENCE FOR SOME EVOLUTIONS, but I THINK NONE OF YOU IS WANTING TO CANCELATE ANY GROWTH.

Regards,
Doru Stoian

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stoian

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Tuesday, January 09, 2007 - 11:56 pm:

Dear Colin,

You asked me about:
"Tuesday, January 09, 2007 - 08:56 am:

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
stoian,

CONSIDER THE GAUSSIAN REPARTITIONS IN PROBABILITY AS NATURAL REPARTITIONS, AND NOT COMPULSORY AS "NORMAL" REPARTITIONS, because such GAUSSIAN repartitions in probability ARE ALLOWING ENOUGH FREEDOM FOR ALL

Please can you provide readers with a link (preferably English) where they can read further on the subject.

Thanks,
Colin"

Today the 09.01.2007

Dear Colin,

I wonder so much, that you are expecting from the freemasons TO BE COMPLETELY HONEST=TRANSPARENT TO THE PEOPLE, TO BE WILLING TO SHARE WITH THEM THEIR KNOWLEDGE IN EXCHANGE FOR NOTHING!

Inside of this proposal of mine, made for the "GUARDIANS" of the Six Sigma Methodology, you will find MAYBE THE UNIQUE POINT OF VIEW REGARDING THE "NORMALITY" AND HER REPARTITION=DISTRIBUTION INSIDE OF THE GAUSSIAN FIELD OF PROBABILITIES.

But a very short explaining of mine, IN DEPENDENCE WITH WHAT I HAVE WRITTEN TODAY, ABOUT THE STRONG LAW OF CONVERGENCE is welcome:

TO BE HELD AS A NORMAL ONE, A REPARTITION=DISTRIBUTION OF VALUES IN TIME - AND CERTAINLY, FIRST OF ALL, INSIDE OF THE GAUSSIAN FIELD OF PROBABILITIES - SHOULD NEVER OVERCROSS IN TIME - ONLY EXCEPTIONALLY=ACCIDENTALY, THE PROBABILITY LEVEL OF 15% (a generical figure, because of her RELATIVITY=percentage of what?, but in PARTICULAR CASES this probability IS GIVING DIFFERENT ABSOLUTE VALUES, SHOWING US FOR COMPARISON THE INDIVIDUALITY OF EACH EVOLUTION IN PART if we want to compare them) FOR HER SUPPORT AND HER RESISTENCE LIMITS MANIFESTED IN TIME.

I repeat, that such A STRONG CONVERGENCE CAN BE SEEN ESPECIALLY FOR EVOLUTIONS IN TIME ON THE FOREX MARKET, but very often also on the Stock Markets.

I made my proposal to the Six Sigma "Guardians", because MY OWN SMAC THEORY AND PRACTICE (Statistical an Mathematical Analyse on Chart) SEEMS TO BE "A NO NAME", and their Methodology for Watching, Hunting and Settling Down of Processes=Evolutions is CLOSER to my SMAC theory and practice as i ever seen.

But, please, lets not talk about "inane bable" anymore, and enjoy my proposals:

TITLE:

The Six Sigma Methodology applied in forecasting random evolutions on different segments of the financial market, like the national or international foreign exchange market or the stock exchange markets are, can give the best Trading System that mankind have ever had.

CONTENTS:

A) The relativity of time

Albert Einstein is fully right!
Time is not a physical dimension, but only a human convention=agreement, and therefore is also having a variable measure.
The measure of time, is having the representation and will be also accounted as - through - the number - volume - of decisions which are taken by us, the humans. The volume of decisions which are already taken, together with their effects - called also historical decisions - are therefore known and certainly visible.
Decisions for the future are not known already, therefore they are invisible, but even if they are invisible, or better said hidden, nobody is allowed to say they are not existing! And they should be also not situated too far away from the levels of the historical decisions.
If it happen so, than we have to do with some accidents – also called errors - which are unavoidable, or even with the hazard when too many accidents are happening, or - when not more avoidable - even with the chaos himself, if some of the many accidents are also growing in comparison with others in their intensity, and this way, we will not have to do anymore with the order, a law of evolution for different processes.
In such cases, we say the process is out of our control. Some of the given rules that were ruling our process are broken, they are not functioning anymore and must be as soon as possible repaired.
Therefore, we have to take, to assume us a decision. Some times a great and very hard decision, dependent on the magnitude of the damage, or why not, of the success also.

B) The “profane” Trinity

Science people are doing a very great mistake using and teaching people, about a single kind of error - called the sampling error - when they are doing a classification, or are dividing the interval of existence and manifestation of different events that are making and showing us any phaenomena.
At the beginning of their analyse, they should assume first of all, that the level of the chosen sampling error is a representative error for the known - and also unknown, you will see further why – parts of our researched phaenomena.
Therefore, it gives not only two types of errors which are to be assumed when analyzing and researching any phaenomena, but three types, which are calling together the “profane” trinity.
The third one, is calling the error for the limits of the interval designed for the existence and manifestation of the phaenomena.

C) About “normality”on this world

What mostly of the science people are understanding through The Normal Distribution, or the Normal Repartition in Probability of K.F. Gauss, is not correct.
Maybe, they have not a fully correspondence with the knowledge itself, but only with the poor science.
The Repartition, or the Distribution in Probability of Gauss, is the general (a generic one) model for the evolution for any type of the myriad evolutions that people are concerned about, despite if they are normal, or else, also wrongly called often “to be not normal”.
The Central Limit Theorem of Leapunov is functioning very well for every and any phaenomena, even if it is highly randomised or only lower randomised.
The concept of normality (manifested in correspondence with the time=the number or volume of decisions) about the evolution of certain phaenomena in comparison with others, was introduced a little bit later by Laplace who said: between all kind of phaenomena, are normal only those with a manifestation, variation only inside of the interval of the standard level, or the unit level, or the setting rate for the risk of increase/decrease established by K.F. Gauss in plus and/or in minus about/against the mean values in time.
I am very sorry to say it, but Laplace (b.t.w., another former member of the freemasonry) was only partially right with his concept of normality, because every phaenomena in the universe is having an usual, habitual, ordinary manifestation, that we can be also allowed to considering it, or also to call it, as a normal one, despite of what we beleve about it!!!!

D) Setting up our………..charts!

W.D Gann, a former member of the freemasonry, Master of 33-rd degree, and also a former investor and speculator on the stock market, has already told us, that we should (be)foresee for both variables - for the “independent” one: the time, or the number or volume of our decisions on a side, represented on the X axis of our chart, and for the dependent one, as the effects of our decisions on the other side, represented on the Y axis - the same level for the representativity error, method which I also calling “setting up the clock”, or adjusting the right time to the evolution we are analyzing, researching for, or the perfect synchronization with the evolution conducted by someone else but us.
Else, our decision can be taken to late or too soon, and we will not have the expected effect.
E) The old Spectrum versus the “new” Histogram

Science people without exception, are making another great mistake as they are not representing on a chart - like R.A Fisher already told us – the whole interval for the existence and manifestation of the researched phaenomena, or what I call “THE SPECTRUM”, or the “EYE OF CHORUS” (where inside are also existing together indeed, nearly the visible aspects of our phaenomena, the invisible, or better said the hidden aspects too): where not only the variation inside of our selection - or also called the first type of risk - like the variation of the individual values against their mean values in time is it - should be shown to us (wrongly considered, like I have told you earlier at point two of my article: as a sample of the whole population already, aspect which we have in fact to proof it at first, and only after that, if it is so, to prove to some one as to be a true aspect, which is a matter of testing a hypothesis about the selection, if it`s having indeed the same structure like the whole population, to become, and being therefore only after that verification, a true sample) but also the second type of risk, which is the variation of the mean values in time, against the string, the series of the real mean values represented in time, which we are calling the median values.

F) Oscillating and chosing between myriads of truths

If science people all over the world, are looking currently indeed – as they will need to find her for making highly accurate forecasts, or predictions – for the so called “BEST FIT”, which it is a best fit, or the best estimation, or the best approximation, made not only for the past, for the history of the evolution (or for the present time, to whom - like I told you earlier at point D of my article) - the clock is already set up, or right adjusted) but also especially for the future, then they have to chose only that kind, that type, that model of function, which is giving as a result the highest level for the R-Squared indicator - which is a unique one - and is showing us the greatest intensity for the correlation of both variables: the variable X, the “independent” one, the time as the volume or number of decisions, and the variable Y, the dependent one as the effects of the decisions.

G) To be, or not to be…………..?

Science people is thinking about profanes, they are mostly irrational, because they are obeying mostly subjective rules.
And therefore their behaviour on different segments of the financial markets, like the foreign exchange market, or the stock market, were also an irrational one.
But what about control? What about order? What about rules? What about decisions?
I can only think that the herd or the crowd is going only where the shepherd - a very rational being, with the help of his many dogs - is conducting her.
At the end of my presentation, I am telling You, that the Six Sigma Methodology is one of the best manner approaching any rational, and even any apparently irrational market behaviour. Because is having and using some of the best appropriate forecasting tools.

It continues with the part H) which is written at this time only in Romanian.
If you are really interested, I will also translate it in English for you.

In articolul pe care l-am trimis la iSix Sigma, ar mai fi trebuit sa mai adaug si punctul H), care zice asa:

H) Boltirea unei Repartitii=Distributii in Probabilitate sau Kuthosis-ul! Nivelul de Risc de Crestere/Descrestere, sau mai devreme Nivelul Erorii de Reprezentativitate??

Boltirea unei Repartitii=Distributii in Probabilitate, sau Kurthosis-ul, este o functie de evolutia volumului de observatii, conform careia, orice distributie=repartitie A MEDIEI DE TIMP in campul gaussian de probabilitate ia forma de clopot, pe masura cresterii volumului de observatii - sa zicem spre infinit - ajungandu-se insa mult mai devreme la un moment la care, oricat de mult s-ar mai creste volumul de observatii, functia caracteristica scrisa pana la acel moment nu se mai modifica, ea devenind complet specificata.

Specialistii (statisticieni dar si matematicieni laolalta) gresesc iarasi, atunci cand considera ca Riscul de Crestere/Descrestere al fenomenului este dependent de forma grafica functionala a ecuatiei caracteristice, si confunda Boltirea=Kuthosis-ul acesteia cu Nivelul Riscului de Crestere/Descrestere, cand de fapt Boltirea-Kurthosis-ul se refera la Nivelul Erorii de Reprezentativitate al Selectiei, care este enorm la inceputul observatiilor, atunci cand volumul selectiei supuse cercetarii este mic, si care scade pe parcurs pana la un nivel numit extrem de reprezentativ, dupa care el ramane constant, indicandu-ne abia acum: CA NE AFLAM IN FATA ESANTIONULUI=SELECTIEI REPREZENTATIVE PENTRU POPULATIA TOTALA si nu ne mai aflam DOAR in fata unei SELECTII=PROBE NEREPREZENTATIVE PENTRU POPULATIA TOTALA, precum si aspectul=faptul ca, o continuare a fenomenului LA INFINIT IN TIMP va urma la limita - adica in limita erorii de reprezentativitate deja specificate si nemodificabile - ACEEASI LEGE DE EVOLUTIE PRECUM CEA ISTORICA!!!

Regards,
Doru Stoian

(Message edited by stoian on January 10, 2007)

(Message edited by stoian on January 10, 2007)