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     ecchigaijin
Member
Username: ecchigaijin
Post Number: 833
Registered: 07-2007Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, April 20, 2008 - 09:25 pm: | 
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Risky, what are your thoughts on the WES rights issue. The SP is already way south of the price they promised us CGJ holders. A further 20% discount sounds enticing if they are going to end up giving us the SP they promised. Failing that target we end up with an effective SP of $42 via extra shares right?
Flick, I haven`t had much of an opportunity to do any research the last 2 weeks. I think the last extension for CNP saw them have a little run from low 20s to high and even touch 30? Personally I think it is less likely to see much effect in the SP from non takeover news at current. Unless it is something that seriously alters the balance sheet situation.
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ecchigaijin
Member
Username: ecchigaijin
Post Number: 834
Registered: 07-2007Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, April 20, 2008 - 09:33 pm: |
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Flick, it will be interesting to see what happens to CNP if they are still around come EOY reporting. If they show signs that they can produce some profits, and their only concerns are on the balance sheet, then perhaps we will see more white knights. But at the end of the day they would need to be producing a positive cash flow in order to give confidence that they can service their loans AND provide some added worth to any potential suitors.
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ecchigaijin
Member
Username: ecchigaijin
Post Number: 835
Registered: 07-2007Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, April 20, 2008 - 09:55 pm: |
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Just found some reading on CNP which seems interesting. The banks apparently are unsecured creditors (surprising considering we are talking about property aren`t we?)
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/WEEKEND-READ-Centro-in-the-ba lance-DTA8T?OpenDocument
"But it's becoming increasingly likely that pulling the Centro plug is not a practical option for the banks – at least while the Centro management continues to perform. Yesterday I explained how the appointment of an administrator would trigger the destruction of the Centro shopping centre management agreements, which are currently generating more than $200 million a year in revenue.
On reading my comments Professor Kevin Davis, director of the Melbourne Centre for Financial Studies, responded that there is another reason why the banks would not want to pull the plug on Centro.
Davis says that, as the banks are unsecured Centro Properties creditors, they will want to avoid putting Centro into receivership because they would then face lots of aggrieved shareholders who under the Sons of Gwalia decision would rank equally with them and dilute the banks' recoveries."
Also worth a read
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/WEEKEND-READ-Centro-in-the-ba lance-DTA8T?OpenDocument
"Not surprisingly, however, the aspiring "saviours" of the group are mindful that unless the Australian banks and US bondholders extend the current moratorium on repayment of $4 billion of Centro debt until September 30, all Centro’s banks, including the US lenders who are owed $2.5 billion, will seek repayment and Centro will be plunged into administration.
The offers, apparently, reflect the perceived leverage and would involve not just equityholders in the various tiers within the group experiencing real pain, but the banks taking a 'hair cut'. "
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riskpirate
Member
Username: riskpirate
Post Number: 751
Registered: 07-2007Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, April 21, 2008 - 02:17 am: |
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ECCHI,no money free to buy rights issue at discount but it will lower the share value.....but is a cheap way out for management who could not raise capital in states at a cost effective interest rate.
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riskpirate
Member
Username: riskpirate
Post Number: 752
Registered: 07-2007Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, April 21, 2008 - 11:08 am: |
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FOLKS, look at incitec pivot as chinese paying 3X what they were paying last year for the potash supplied to them.
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flicker
Member
Username: flicker
Post Number: 4
Registered: 04-2008Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, April 21, 2008 - 11:45 am: |
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Ecchi
CNP should go well this week what with all the PR coverage over the week-end. Articles in the WSJ (interview with the CEO), The Age and of course the Business Speculator. Yes I read about the banks not being secured creditors last week and was somewhat surprised myself must be to do with the complicated way in which the the company is set-up?
Article from AFR:
Source: The Australian Financial Review newspaper (Page 18)
Date: Monday 21 April, 2008
Excerpt from article: Underdog barking up the wrong tree
It's also shaping up to be a big week for Glenn Rufrano, the chief of embattled property company Centro Properties Group. Rufrano spent last week doing the rounds of institutional shareholders in Sydney and Melbourne.
He was pushing the line that the company's Australian and US banks were continuing to strongly support the company because it continued to be profitable and meet its interest obligations (which were now more expensive than ever).
It is understood that rumours of bids around the 90c-$1 mark are true - the stock last traded at 42c - but it seems clear that Centro's board won't be dealing with anyone at that level.
Centro has been at the mercy of its lenders since revealing a $3.9 billion debt funding shortfall last year. It is widely expected the group's Australian-based lenders will extend funding arrangements beyond the April 30 deadline.
The bidders have been working under the assumption that the deadline meant the company had to take the best offer on the table or the banks would put them into administration.
However, it now appears that the company and its banks, which want to be repaid in full, agree that they don't have to pursue that course of action. With this in mind, it is believed that a longer than expected 12-month extension will be granted this week.
So as you say the profits are holding atm - have to see what effect the downturn in US retail spending will have on vacancy rates etc and therefore profitability of the US ops of course has the biggest ? mark over it.......
Risk I like IPL great stock choice
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riskpirate
Member
Username: riskpirate
Post Number: 753
Registered: 07-2007Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, April 21, 2008 - 11:50 am: |
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ECCHI, rights issue at 29 dollars.
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riskpirate
Member
Username: riskpirate
Post Number: 754
Registered: 07-2007Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, April 21, 2008 - 11:52 am: |
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Flick, wot part of aus you from . I am from newcastle and the rain is pouring down.
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flicker
Member
Username: flicker
Post Number: 5
Registered: 04-2008Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, April 21, 2008 - 12:05 pm: |
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Risk
Victoria - so no Reevsby Club for me I'm afraid..........
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jax
Member
Username: jax
Post Number: 1785
Registered: 07-2007Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, April 21, 2008 - 01:37 pm: |
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sorry boys flat out tradeing ,get cat over flick if you like try and get wolf man leave sss out for now slow and steady things go good for a week or two we can grow , markets should run for days now here i just wonder tonight if bad news will be bad .the last few days bad news is good is that going to change with bank of america answer i dont know.
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chingas
Member
Username: chingas
Post Number: 757
Registered: 06-2007
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, April 21, 2008 - 02:30 pm: |
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G'day all, IPL has had an impressive run, but it is scary to consider buying at these levels
Psst does seem to know his stocks although i haven't followed his track record(we've all seen his claims of 9/10) but the way he carries on is not to my liking - admittedly he gets stirred alot - I would be voting against him at this stage, but like jax says, if things are running well in a few weeks maybe we can consider him too(I don't know if he'll like the idea of being in the same forum and me and ecchi though lol)
CZA having a little dip, I wonder where the bottom will be, I think i'll stick to my $2.30 for a chance to get in
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jax
Member
Username: jax
Post Number: 1786
Registered: 07-2007Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, April 21, 2008 - 03:00 pm: |
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well thats easy chris he is out ,why find trouble we get on here they have to fit into us not the other way round
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eallthewayhome
Member
Username: eallthewayhome
Post Number: 438
Registered: 07-2007
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, April 21, 2008 - 03:16 pm: |
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hehehehhhhehehehe go *** ***
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chingas
Member
Username: chingas
Post Number: 758
Registered: 06-2007
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, April 21, 2008 - 04:31 pm: |
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There was an interesting article in WiseOwl's members newsletter talking about the relationship between volatility and market turning points. In particular it compares volatility during the 1987 crash, 1997 asian crisis and the latest debarcle, and shows the spike in volatility at each event. They were basically saying that the reduction in volatility signals the start of the next major rally
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