Archive through 08 October, 2003
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     captain_chaza
Member
Username: captain_chaza
Post Number: 447
Registered: 02-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, September 30, 2003 - 03:36 pm: | 
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Ahoy Officer Spids
Thanks and see you all at the starting line
It promises to be a very slow but very challenging and exciting yacht race
Let's hope luck is on one of our yachts
Winner shouts the drinks!
Captain Chaza
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starboard_tack
Member
Username: starboard_tack
Post Number: 35
Registered: 04-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, September 30, 2003 - 05:09 pm: |
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Ahoy Captain and crew,
ERG - I posted this one on 4th September as one to watch, and then didn't take my own advice and keep watch till today! It looks like a nice breakout?
CC, I notice that both of your yachts in the match race are on Starboard Tack!!
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captain_chaza
Member
Username: captain_chaza
Post Number: 448
Registered: 02-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, October 01, 2003 - 10:13 am: |
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Ahoy brave and loyal crew
I don't believe it!
The Southerly Buster is coming at us again
We'd better get out of here under full sail NE
All hands on deck
At dawn on the open
HOIST the blue SGW
HOIST the green ADU
HOIST the green PBI
HOIST the red APG
HOIST the red ATX
HOIST the red BPO
HOIST the red DES
HOIST the red RGL
Bon Voyage and God's speed
Captain Chaza
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peterloh
Member
Username: peterloh
Post Number: 248
Registered: 03-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, October 01, 2003 - 11:16 am: |
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Ahoy Captain
Yesterday morning I posted IRN showing a white candle after a dragon fly doji but after the final update last night it turned out to be an inverted hangman. Although the share has gone up 1.5c this morning I am not so bullish because of yesterday's black candle. Please ignore my posting yesterday.
Cheers
Peterloh
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Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.
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captain_chaza
Member
Username: captain_chaza
Post Number: 449
Registered: 02-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, October 02, 2003 - 09:56 am: |
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Ahoy brave and loyal crew
All hands on deck
At dawn on the open
LOWER the blue VCR
HOIST the blue UXC
LOWER the green ALK
HOIST the green KRS
LOWER the green AYOO
HOIST the red DMX
HOIST the red FEA
Bon Voyage and God's speed
Captain Chaza
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grannie
Member
Username: grannie
Post Number: 17
Registered: 08-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, October 02, 2003 - 03:34 pm: |
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spider , alsoran, julles...
captain not keen on this one but as AAT continues up. I would appreciate a comment on the chart .
I wonder about the significance of the wide range in early september weekly.
with thanks, grannie
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nicola
Member
Username: nicola
Post Number: 39
Registered: 06-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, October 03, 2003 - 12:12 am: |
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Capitanio, Capitanio
I'm getting sea sick
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julles
Member
Username: julles
Post Number: 343
Registered: 01-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, October 03, 2003 - 07:05 am: |
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Grannie here's a daily chart using Trend Tracker lines. It looks to be at the top of the range?
Here's the weekly nice uptrend since the forming of a triple bottom. September it came back to touch the trend support line and then resume the journey onward and upwards.
Julles
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captain_chaza
Member
Username: captain_chaza
Post Number: 450
Registered: 02-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, October 03, 2003 - 10:17 am: |
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Ahoy brave and loyal crew
All hands on deck
At dawn on the open
LOWER the blue NRT
HOIST the red AAT
HOIST the red FAR
HOIST the red MDL
LOWER the green HLD
HOIST the green KIM
LOWER the green MSC
HOIST the green EPT
LOWER the green PCG
HOIST the green OEC
LOWER the red REL
HOIST the RED CSI
Bon Voyage and God's speed
Captain Chaza
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grannie
Member
Username: grannie
Post Number: 18
Registered: 08-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, October 03, 2003 - 10:58 am: |
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Gee Captain hope it keeps going.
Thanks Julles I need to do something about Mac art and charts!
Volume steady and good support in numbers - maybe a spectacular announcement is due!!!
with thanks grannie
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julles
Member
Username: julles
Post Number: 345
Registered: 01-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, October 03, 2003 - 01:15 pm: |
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Gosh did we both missed this one Captain, up 20% as I type!
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captain_chaza
Member
Username: captain_chaza
Post Number: 451
Registered: 02-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, October 04, 2003 - 06:19 pm: |
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Ahoy brave and loyal crew
I have updated the Logs as at Dusk Friday 3rd
October 2003 (0ur WEEK 21) on our Long Term Voyage Sailing NE Safely but as fast as we can naturally
Nobody really sets out to sea on the ASX to go slow,I think?
It was certainly not one of our best weeks and possibly our worst
The All Ords went NE +1%
The Great ship "Incredulous" SE -1.5%-2% !!!???!!!
Yes faithful crew we lost ~$7k out of $417k
We surely must to do a lot better, work a lot harder and think a lot quicker next week if we are to reach to our destination of $500k in 26 weeks
Fortunately our riggings are fairly well set up for a NICKLE BOOM and a belated but possible Bio-Tech revival and with a few minor tacks at dawn Monday we may even be able to strangle the All Ords once and for all and cover the all too valuable WINDS THAT CALL THE TUNE
The Captain is not one for the Oil Classes of sail but we may keep Novice Sea-Cadet Mosaic happy if we Invest 1% or 2% into his tunnel visioned FETISH in oils
Sea-Cadet Nicola, it will not be the MOS as she has always lacked class, personality and VOLATILITY
PS Some skippers panic when the close is on the BUY side of the spread
Little do they know that this Captain is in it for the Long Term
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mosaic1996
Member
Username: mosaic1996
Post Number: 274
Registered: 01-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, October 05, 2003 - 01:08 pm: |
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Hi Cap,
It would be my pleasure to make a few suggestions from my beloved oil patch. As you don't follow the fundamentals at all, I should point out that AYO/AYOO, AWE (which sent the Good Ship Incredulous [GSI] northwards on a few occasions) and FAR (a current sail which is flapping around a bit) are all oilers (LOL).
I am unsure if my sail (sails) will be set on the GSI or if I will be sailing a Hoby Cat attached to the GSI and hopefully adding some momentum rather than acting as an anchor. If it is in a Hoby Cat I can be set a drift at a moments notice (better than walking the plank).
You have an ambitious target to reach $500k in 5 more weeks, that is by 7/11/2003. First some statistics (hopefully my calculations are correct):
i) to double your money in 26 weeks you need to average around 2.71% / week compounding.
ii) To date you have averaged 2.31% / week compounding. You were ahead of the curve last week - but one bad week makes a big difference.
iii) to make the target you need a 23.8% return, which is an average of 4.4% / week compounding for the remaining 5 weeks.
We were all very lucky to have a tail wind for much of the early voyage, unfortunately we may have to tack into a choppy wind for the rest of the voyage, which will make our task all the more difficult. If no-one is looking we may be able to use the oilers to start the motors if there is a lack of wind - or would this be unethical. My limited experience of racing is that if you can get away with it, it's OK, although motors are probably pushing the limits even in the cut and thrust of competitive racing.
Cap, you have mentioned many times before that safety is paramount, but I get the impression that making it to $500k within the 26 weeks is also a relatively high priority. My suggestions are based on the following assumptions
i) that reaching $500k in 26 weeks is quite important, and could be viewed as the finish line of a race of some sort.
ii) at the current speed we will miss the target, we would be close, so we would run second
iii) it would be worth taking a few risks to win the race, but if the trade winds blow from the south, or even becalm us, we would slip into third or fourth place.
iv) it would not be worth taking any risks that could demast us, or sink us.
To make the 24% may require some risk taking, and some furious tacking (for me, but not compared to the Captain's norm). will be required.
Of course, one course of action would be to keep the oiler powder dry for another day, but I'll push on, and make a few suggestions.
Tack 1 (week 1).
High Risk/Reward/Loss and in order of best expected risked return
CUE - for Mangga well result (as early as Monday?) - big move certain, but which way?
AYOO - recovery from YUK-1 disappointment, and ongoing exploration program
STU - for Worrior-1 reserve estimate. A bit dangerous IMO.
COE/COEO - wait for Eucalyptus result (Monday?), and if price is hammered, buy for Worrior-1 reserve estimate. A bit dangerous IMO.
A Less Risky Approach, in alphabetical order
AWE - Casino-3 spud, PPP implied extra NZ drilling in Q1, 2004, and general rerating
AYO - recovery from YUK-1 disappointment, and ongoing exploration
HDR - for Mauritania production test result, and anticipation of next wildcat well
From the above, depending on the number of sails you wish to allocate to the oilers, I would
1. HOIST CUE (a bit dangerous on the open as it may gap)
2. HOIST AYOO
3. HOIST AWE
There is a reasonable prospect that both AYOO and AWE would both realise the required 4.4% weekly gain in the coming week, and with limited downside risk. The highest risk/reward strategy would be to raise a large CUE sail rather than 2 or 3 smaller sails. This would be my approach as a novice sea cadet on a Hoby Cat (too difficult to manage multiple sails from different makers), brimming with self confidence induced by that male hormone, aiming to impress his captain at the helm by helping him over the line, throwing caution to the (northerly - fingers crossed) wind in desperation to impress, etc.
Some background. I progressively hoisted 3 CUE sails on one of my Hoby Cats when they were on sale at bargain prices. I purposely steered a course toward this storm (wildcat drilling), and I have benefited greatly from the increased northerly wind associated with it. With the gap up on Friday I was on the verge of lowering one sail and trimming another, which is what a more prudent novice sea cadet would have done. We are now rapidly approaching the juncture (we may have already reached the point of no return) where we will either be propelled northward at a great rate of knots or chewed up and spat out several leagues south of our previously known position.
The point of this rather long and tedious tale is that having sailed close to many of these storms I decided that there would be no sale of the sails just yet. In other words I view the odds of heading north and the associated rewards as being greater than the risks involved, and that my money is where my mouth is! N.B. If there is another spurt north prior to an announcement of the result, I may lower 1 of the sails.
To get things into perspective, I estimate the CUE share price on the Mangga result could range from -25% (at worst) to +40% (at best). I guesstimate that the chances of success are better than 50%, but this is only a gut feeling based on the fact that Mangga is updip of a previous well that had gas shows. There are also multiple minor gas targets above the main target (and CUE price action could be a result of multiple leaks from one of these horizons).
To counter this enthusiasm, excitement in CUE built pre-open on Friday when there was a bid for 1.5m shares. This bidder was not filled, and did not chase the stock. There is a possibility that this is a dummy bidder to support the price to distribute stock: illegal yes, possible yes!
The only certainty in all of this is that the share price will not be 6.6c once the Mangga result is known.
I am also working on the assumption that the mother ship would pluck a novice sea cadet from the ocean should he be caught out and capsized by a sudden southerly gust, for which a more prudent sailor would have anticipated, battened down the hatches and possibly left a small storm sail aloft.
On Mangga result
LOWER CUE
RAISE AYO, AWE, HDR or ROC depending on what has happened in the interim. I will update.
If the assumptions on which I based the above suggestions are incorrect, and that safety is the most important consideration, I would highly recommend Nicola's favourite, and my namesake MOS. I am fairly confident that there is at least 24% in MOS from current levels with minimal downside risk. I am just not confident of the time frame - it may not happen until a few/several weeks after the deadline of 7/11/03. May enter MOS a bit later into the voyage. ROC is another stock that I am confident will return the required 24%, but again it is a question of timing.
From these suggestions I own CUE, AYO, AWE, ROC and MOS. I sold out of COE/O the week before last.
Cheers,
Permanent (dependant upon performance) Nervous and Stressed Novice Sea Cadet Mosaic
N.B. I have been wrong many times in the past, and will be wrong again, but hopefully not this time.
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captain_chaza
Member
Username: captain_chaza
Post Number: 452
Registered: 02-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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trophies3/oct/2003