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Message |
     mosaic1996
Member
Username: mosaic1996
Post Number: 289
Registered: 01-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, October 08, 2003 - 10:59 pm: | 
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Oh Cap, oh Cap,
The oilers that we HOISTED are not looking that good are they.
I guess it is my fault, I gave you too many choices........
To refresh our memories...extracts from my post follow:
================================================
Of course, one course of action would be to keep the oiler powder dry for another day, but I'll push on, and make a few suggestions.
Tack 1 (week 1).
High Risk/Reward/Loss and in order of best expected risked return
CUE - for Mangga well result (as early as Monday?) - big move certain, but which way?
AYOO - recovery from YUK-1 disappointment, and ongoing exploration program
STU - for Worrior-1 reserve estimate. A bit dangerous IMO.
COE/COEO - wait for Eucalyptus result (Monday?), and if price is hammered, buy for Worrior-1 reserve estimate. A bit dangerous IMO.
A Less Risky Approach, in alphabetical order
AWE - Casino-3 spud, PPP implied extra NZ drilling in Q1, 2004, and general rerating
AYO - recovery from YUK-1 disappointment, and ongoing exploration
HDR - for Mauritania production test result, and anticipation of next wildcat well
From the above, depending on the number of sails you wish to allocate to the oilers, I would
1. HOIST CUE (a bit dangerous on the open as it may gap)
2. HOIST AYOO
3. HOIST AWE
There is a reasonable prospect that both AYOO and AWE would both realise the required 4.4% weekly gain in the coming week, and with limited downside risk. The highest risk/reward strategy would be to raise a large CUE sail rather than 2 or 3 smaller sails
=================================================
later on, I suggested.......
If the assumptions on which I based the above suggestions are incorrect, and that safety is the most important consideration, I would highly recommend Nicola's favourite, and my namesake MOS. I am fairly confident that there is at least 24% in MOS from current levels with minimal downside risk. I am just not confident of the time frame - it may not happen until a few/several weeks after the deadline of 7/11/03. May enter MOS a bit later into the voyage. ROC is another stock that I am confident will return the required 24%, but again it is a question of timing.
From these suggestions I own CUE, AYO, AWE, ROC and MOS. I sold out of COE/O the week before last.
===================================================
From the above suggestions you selected
Code BUY CLOSE
AWE $1.18 $1.16 (bummer)
STU $0.69 $0.65 (bummer)
COE $0.265 $0.25 (bummer)
CUE $0.067 $0.069 (yeah a winner)
Other suggestions not selected have had mixed performance
COEO $0.079 $0.069 (bummer)
AYO $1.24 $1.34 (pretty good)
HDR $0.67 $0.68 (on thin ice)
My RECOMMENDATIONS have faired a bit better
CODE BUY CLOSE
CUE $0.067 $0.069 (ahead, but I'm nervous)
AYOO $0.50 $0.59 (good one)
AWE $1.18 $1.16 (bummer)
Now, I did put forward the suggestion that you put all the eggs in the CUE basket. So if you followed my riskiest suggestion, we would only be a little in front (2.9%).
The 2 safe suggestions have faired OK as well.
MOS $0.165 $0.185 (pretty good)
ROC $1.38 $1.40 (OK)
The only loser that I own is AWE (which I am still comfortable about). I don't own COE, COEO or STU.
Cheers,
Recently Demoted Temporary Apprentice Novice Sea Cadet Mosaic.
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captain_chaza
Member
Username: captain_chaza
Post Number: 458
Registered: 02-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, October 09, 2003 - 10:46 am: |
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Ahoy brave and loyal crew
All hands on deck
At dawn on the open
LOWER the red BPO
HOIST the red SRL
LOWER the red EQR
HOIST the red REA
Bon Voyage and God's speed
Captain Chaza
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peterloh
Member
Username: peterloh
Post Number: 255
Registered: 03-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, October 09, 2003 - 11:21 am: |
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Hi Julles
Your nickel selection is good.
Yesterday I was told of a rather convincing story. I called it convincing because I raise a green spinnaker which by my standard is ridiculously low. I call it punting.I have never dabble in this in my whole life. By some of your posts I know quite a few of you are engaged in this type of sport. I thought you may like to know.This is my first and probably the last time I will do something silly like this.The chart yesterday looks promising though.
The simple story is all the cables have been laid
and all they have to do is to connect.It sounds simple enough and is a little telecommunication story.
This person reads the post in this forum and I am also posting for his benefit. As he told me he has 4 blue spinnakers on PWT , I am accompanying him with one green. I don't promise to keep it for long.I hope it will pay for my nite out.
Cheers
Peterloh
According to the chart I have given him a vote of confidence. But I must say it is not my cup of tea.
-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.
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captain_chaza
Member
Username: captain_chaza
Post Number: 459
Registered: 02-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, October 09, 2003 - 06:35 pm: |
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Ahoy great crew
Another typical day with its fair share of bad luck as usual
We went very fast but the Captain still has very sore thumbs and ankles for kicking himself for his obsession with safety
I think it may take a lot of hard work and seamanship skills tonite to steer this great ship into a nice close at dusk on this week's end
It seems we have been going so fast we have lost the aid of all our officers and are sailing with only a couple of adrenalin charged Sea-cadets and a very ample cook
Officers are funny people in that if you have 1 bad week in 21 they seem to go missing overboard
Salute and lets get into some rum and biscuits as we prepare the craft and crew for the all important "Friday"
Captain Chaza
Ahoy "PERMANENT" Sea-Cadet Mosaic (born or died in 1996)
Why is it the COE and STU are heading in different directions?
Do you think there is a divorce pending , Is one of them fiddling the books or is this standard practice for the oily rags you call sails?
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mosaic1996
Member
Username: mosaic1996
Post Number: 291
Registered: 01-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, October 09, 2003 - 09:12 pm: |
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Hi Cap,
Ah 1996. Both birth and death, t'was the year that I had the fortitude to give the stressful and demanding day job the flick, and to try full-time investing/trading as a career. So far, so good.
STU and COE divergence - ummm. Firstly I should say that whilst I have a reasonable understanding of COE, I only have a very basic understanding of STU. The only explanations of the degree of the price divergence between COE and STU that I can offer are:
a) COE has a higher day trader profile, possibly/partly? due to lower share price (and market cap), more so than true worth of the companies.
b) COE/STU will drill Kiwi-1 shortly, and COE/BPT will drill Semaphore-1 shortly. SO COE has an extra well in the short term.
There are a large group of oilers that form small groups, usually with 2 or 3 different partners to go off and drill holes together. So the problem is that they do not believe in monogamy.
I must admit I didn't think these issues through before including STU and COE in my suggestions. With hindsight the divergence may very well have been predictable.
Cheers,
PERMANENT(ly chuffed) Sea Cadet Mosaic
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julles
Member
Username: julles
Post Number: 351
Registered: 01-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, October 10, 2003 - 08:17 am: |
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Hi Peterloh, I notice pwtr has had 3 large volume days also, what's the go with these do you know?
Ahoy Captain, Pdn and Gda both receiving a considerable amount of attention of late.
Julles
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dollars
Member
Username: dollars
Post Number: 58
Registered: 09-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, October 10, 2003 - 10:27 am: |
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Ahoy CC and crew
I've have been moving to a Perth address( might have to catch up with Yogi and his crew) but still have been watching closely the generally exciting moves of the vessel.
cheers $
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captain_chaza
Member
Username: captain_chaza
Post Number: 460
Registered: 02-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, October 10, 2003 - 10:35 am: |
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Ahoy brave and loyal crew
All hands on deck
At dawn on the open
LOWER the blue NAL
HOIST the blue PSA
LOWER the green SMY
HOIST the green MTH
LOWER the green AEI
HOIST the green MOS
LOWER the red AZR
HOIST the red VPE
LOWER the red FEA
HOIST the red DWY
Bon Voyage and God's speed
Captain Chaza
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captain_chaza
Member
Username: captain_chaza
Post Number: 461
Registered: 02-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, October 10, 2003 - 10:35 am: |
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Ahoy brave and loyal crew
All hands on deck
At dawn on the open
LOWER the blue NAL
HOIST the blue PSA
LOWER the green SMY
HOIST the green MTH
LOWER the green AEI
HOIST the green MOS
LOWER the red AZR
HOIST the red VPE
LOWER the red FEA
HOIST the red DWY
Bon Voyage and God's speed
Captain Chaza
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nicola
Member
Username: nicola
Post Number: 42
Registered: 06-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, October 10, 2003 - 10:47 am: |
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Hoist the Green MOS?
Have I read yur latest entry correctly?
My dearest Capitanio,
it's snowing in the hills.
Are you don't need some rum
to warm up a bit
and think again?
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mosaic1996
Member
Username: mosaic1996
Post Number: 293
Registered: 01-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, October 10, 2003 - 12:09 pm: |
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Hi Nicola,
Me thinks perhaps our old cap may have had sufficient rum last night with Mrs Cap, combined with the aromatic and herbal bath oils, it has gone to his head and knocked the Cap's cap off - what with 3 new oily sails hoisted.
PSA a good choice, as is MOS, except MOS may weaken a tad before taking off again later this month.
Still (I hope) Permanent(ly chuffed) Sea Cadet Mosaic
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dollars
Member
Username: dollars
Post Number: 59
Registered: 09-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, October 10, 2003 - 12:48 pm: |
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Back again
Im looking at AVN in with a probe earlier on added at "at market" fill @ 0.044.
Could be real scary as no funnymentals yet to support rumors
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spider
Member
Username: spider
Post Number: 1098
Registered: 10-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, October 10, 2003 - 02:27 pm: |
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What's all this bilge about no officers on deck.
Was it not the first officer that suggested KIM, how's the thumbs after trying to hold on to that one over the last few days?
A slightly saddened first mate spids (having been supplanted in the captains heart by those six legged oily dudes), going below decks to sulk and drink his single malt 'Bruichladdich' which just arrived from that small pointy bit just above England.
It's been waiting for me for 15 years, so I must not keep it waiting.
.
"How long a minute is depends on what side of the bathroom door you're on."
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captain_chaza
Member
Username: captain_chaza
Post Number: 462
Registered: 02-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 |
