Archive through 21 November, 2003

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peterloh

Member

Post Number: 331
Registered: 03-2003

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Wednesday, November 19, 2003 - 06:01 pm:

Ahoy Captain,

Look like the hammer yesterday in the XAO did work for us. I hope DOW have a better night tonight as last night was not good. Hope the uptrend from XAO will continue now. All the new money coming into superannuation surely the fund managers will have to follow the mandate. Imagine all these money will have to be invested. Even for life stages, a certain amount will have to go into equities. They are not many IPOs around to channel them off.

Lets wait and see. Some of the money paid in late last month are only being banked in now, choc a block, must be burning a hole through the fund managers pocket.

Cheers

Peterloh

-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

spider

Member

Post Number: 1241
Registered: 10-2002

Rating:
Votes: 1


Wednesday, November 19, 2003 - 06:44 pm:

It sure has been quiet on the ship today!

A couple of days back I promised to post a chart to show what I do in these situations.

This chart is a good one as it will represent many shares that have done the same thing over the past year.

The first thing that you will notice is that it has respected the trendline for a long time on both the daily and weekly charts.

If one of my shares breaches a long established trendline, my reaction is to lighten my position (usually to halve it).

This decision is made in conjunction with the mood of the overall market.

Another method that I use is the 'defining the head' method.

Often a share will push up at it's peak and form a kind of head (you can see one clearly on the daily chart).

I put a trendline in at the neck, and I strongly consider lightening my position if the neckline is breached.

I find it interesting that the long term trendline and the neckline were breached at the same time.

The hard part with a lot of the positions that we are holding is that they have run a long way ahead of the weekly MA (shown in red on the daily chart).

If I was to wait for the price action to breach that long term MA, I would be giving back a heap of money, so I lock in some in the ways that I have illustrated.

**** If it continues on down past the MA I close out, happy in the knowledge that I have trapped the maximum profit without having to jump in and out several times, and possibly missing a big move.

***** If the share recovers before it hits the MA, I can always buy back in, but having said that I would apply this rule.................

....... I would only buy back in if it met this requirement............

if I had not been in this position before, would I consider this the best place to put my money now.

I have learned the lesson of falling in love with a position, but on the other hand I do not want to give up a position until I absolutely have to.

P.S. None of this stuff is original to spider, I pinched it all from things that I have read, they work for me, you make up your own mind.

I have to go and meet mrs spider now. Going to drown my sorrows, it's been a rough few weeks, but there have been some bright sports, I'm finally getting a handle on my short term trading, but there is a long way to go,but I would like to thank TOL, PPT, ORI, and PBL for softening the blow somewhat.

PBLW

"Men are like ... Coffee ... The best ones are rich, warm, & can keep you up all night long."

pyrrho

Member

Post Number: 20
Registered: 05-2003

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Wednesday, November 19, 2003 - 07:02 pm:

Thanx again Spider. This is exactly the sort of post that has made you famous amongst us newbies. I've struggled with exits, particularly trailing stops, having given back a bit of hard earned profit on a couple of nice positions lately. An approach like this might be what I've been looking for. Thinking cap back on!! ( I know..I shouldn't ever take it off!)

pyrrho

Member

Post Number: 21
Registered: 05-2003

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Wednesday, November 19, 2003 - 07:05 pm:

PS Forgive me cutting across the good ship Incredulous wake. My little trailer sailer and I admire the work of the crew of this fine vessel from afar. I promise to give way to her no matter what tack we are on!!!

starboard_tack

Member

Post Number: 73
Registered: 04-2003

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Wednesday, November 19, 2003 - 07:07 pm:

Thankyou once again Spider,

I have been slowly developing a similar technique (still very clumsily). Your post, as always, has made it all a lot clearer for me. I think that this technique fits my style well.

I especially like your rule for re-entry. This the area I am working on improving.

Can I ask you to look at the following charts of my (trying not to be beloved) ETT. As you can see I sold half at about .093 and closed out yesterday on breach of MA. Unfortunately today's action makes me think that I chose the wrong MA!

What conditions would you use for a re-entry?

Starb'd
ETT 4years

captain_chaza

Member

Post Number: 556
Registered: 02-2003

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Wednesday, November 19, 2003 - 07:14 pm:

Ahoy Senior Officer St Petes
I think they are waiting for a sign
A sector or class of sail to hoist
We are now very flush with funds with no-where to go
I hate sailing with half masts but safety is paramount I guess?
It was a pity we downed sails so late as it was so bloody obvious in all charts Sometimes Seeing is not Believing???
It seems the Captain simply fell asleep at the wheel again or lacked the necessary courage needed to lower his pet sails
How fickle can one get?
I have always found that after great sailing victories it is so easy to relax
Winning seems to weigh very heavily on this skipper
OUCH! OUCH! and another OUCH!
I have my fingers crossed for tonite as our Captain of War George W speaks
I hope he doesn't upset the Nth Korean Naval Fleet too much? We do have a few Gold stocks
(but not really good ones)just in case and the crew is well rested and sea-ready

Salute and Bon Appetit
Captain Chaza

spider

Member

Post Number: 1244
Registered: 10-2002

Rating:
Votes: 1


Thursday, November 20, 2003 - 01:04 am:

First mate spids on deck.

What an excellent night to be on watch.

After a beautiful hot day, an awesome electrical storm. Nature's fireworks. Lovely cool breeze.

The silence of being awake when most everyone else is asleep.

No phones ringing in my ears as they have been all day.

Time to reflect on what has been a nasty couple of weeks.

It's easy to forget, at these times, that a lot of our positions are doing very well.

So I took some time off this evening and met mrs spider after work at an excellent little spot we like to go to.

Sitting outside, watching the sun go down, watching the commuters fighting their way home.

To put things in perspective, I went back over the last few weeks and copied down the names of all the positions that I had closed in profit, and hoisted a glass or two in celebration.

I've been so busy managing my positions and agonizing over appropriate exits, that I had forgotten to celebrate the winners.

I'm always on your backs about celebrating winners, and I forgot!

For the car buffs, I saw a brilliant late 60's Chevy, a red Triumph TR6, and an immaculate Mainline Ute, powder blue and white.
Cussys and Mainlines were the cars we used to lust after when we were kids.

Enough waffle...................

starboard_tack,
I had a look at ETT.

The first thig that grabs me is the fact that it is a 'penny'.

I'm not saying that the rules don't work with 'pennies', but I am saying that sometimes things get a little blurred, so you need to be extra cautious when trading them.

** The price action seems to have respected my MA but not yours.

I use a 21EMA which is similar to 'Stan's' 30WMA.

What are you using?

***** Now, I know it is easy to come in after the fact and draw a few lines on a chart and offer advice, but I do know that it is a lot harder when you have to make decisions at the right hand edge.

But, having said that , I have drawn in a possible trendline (on the daily), the price action has respected it so far.

I've also drawn in a 'neckline'. The breach of that neckline would have been a good place to think about lightening your holding, in order to lock in some profit.

*** What would I do if I felt that I had gotten out too soon (and I'm not saying that you did)?

In my head I say to myself that I have never seen this share before, just from the chart alone , would I like to own it?

Now look at the weekly and ask the same question.

Now, either way , trust your judgement.

ETTW

"Men are like ... Coffee ... The best ones are rich, warm, & can keep you up all night long."

investinit

Member

Post Number: 22
Registered: 08-2003

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Thursday, November 20, 2003 - 06:58 am:

Ahoy Captain,

Do you really think the small exploration companies are picking up yet? I have followed WTE - it seems to be respecting a trend line drawn from the end of Jan & early July with its recent rise (although still a little above). You picked it well yesterday but no luck yet on ALK & SBM. I know you don't normally discuss such things but do you think the US dollar fall is going to continue to influence / dominate these stocks above all else?

Just wondering..
Investinit

fox_terrier

Member

Post Number: 28
Registered: 10-2003

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Thursday, November 20, 2003 - 07:03 am:

Hi Spider

Still enjoying your posts.
Can you please explain why you draw the neckline at an angle.

Just some trivia i thought you'd enjoy.

Abraham Lincoln was elected to congress in 1846.
John Kennedy was elected to congress in 1946.

AL was elected president in 1860.
JFK was elected president in 1960.

Both were particularly concerned with civil rights.
Both wifes lost their children while living in the white house.

Both were shot on a Friday.
Both were shot in the head.

Now it gets really weird.
Lincoln's secretary was named Kennedy.
Kennedy's secretary was named Lincoln.

Both were assassinated by Southerners.
Both were succeeded by southerners name Johnson.

Andrew Johnson who succeeded AL was born in 1808.
Lyndon Johnson who succeeded JFK was born in 1908.

John Wilkes Booth who assassinated Lincoln was born in 1839.
Lee Harvey Oswald who assassinated JFK was born in 1939.

Both assassins were known by their three names.

Both names are composed of fifteen letters.

Now hang onto your seat.

Lincoln was shot at the theatre named "Ford".
Kennedy was shot in a car called "Lincoln" made by "Ford".
Lincoln was shot in a theatre and his assassin ran and hid in a warehouse.
Kennedy was shot from a warehouse and his assassin ran and hid in a theatre.

Booth and Oswald were assassinated before their trials.

And here's the kicker.....

A week before Lincoln was shot, he was in Monroe, Maryland.
A week before Kennedy was shot, he was with Marilyn Monroe.

Weird eh?

Cheers
fox_terrier

julles

Member

Post Number: 513
Registered: 01-2003

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Thursday, November 20, 2003 - 08:33 am:

Ahoy Captain, Tms ???

peterloh

Member

Post Number: 332
Registered: 03-2003

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Thursday, November 20, 2003 - 09:00 am:

Ahoy Captain,

You are right that if the right sector is selected we will really catch the wind. The thing is which sector. I was thinking about the strong Aussie $ will do importers well. MRL was my first pick because it has lagged behind but unfortunately it hasn't caught the wind.It was also mentioned by Uturn and Spider. By right it should have benefited by the strong $A but has not reflected in its share price. I had to say DA Da to it. The mining sector is good but is hindered by the strong A$. Exporters, one to keep away unless one has something exceptional to sell.It comes back to two sectors mainly biotech and mining & exploration which your good self have been hoisting . So the trick is still stock selection and back to the charts.I think contractors will be good because of all the infrastructure the government is putting money into and the good prices resource companies are having so there is a lot of activity here.

We can always rely on First Mate Spider with his timely words of wisdom on falling in love with a position which we are all guilty of.I have used in the past the strategy of holding on to a share and at the same time trading the same share. Uturn has mentioned in past post of my selection CTX that could have benefited more if we used CFDs instead.

Because I had some luck I hold big positions in my selection which I was lucky in some like SGW CPU IAG PMN ION GLB CLO PMP but not so lucky with RIC and OST which went down so fast that I hate to say all the past gains on these 2 shares have been eroded.

Also having traded out of OSH BPS CTX COA UGL and with TLS buyback I have to look for new positions. Forum members are good because they are the ones that give timely suggestions.

One that I missed out is FKP which Snifter suggested some time ago.

DOW was up last night which will give our market another boost.Money for super are still being banked, these are the 9% compulsory paid in by employers. All these will have to be invested still. I am not so concern about he direction for the next 3 years because equity market goes down once every 4 to 5 years. With the government co-contribution for low income earners coming in, more money will come into super and the majority will get into equity as well because of asset allocation.

Wishing you a lovely day.

Cheers

Peterloh

captain_chaza

Member

Post Number: 557
Registered: 02-2003

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Thursday, November 20, 2003 - 09:51 am:

Ahoy brave and loyal crew

All hands on deck
At dawn on the open

HOIST the blue NAL
HOIST the blue LUM
HOIST the blue CXP
HOIST the blue AGX
HOIST the blue MBP

HOIST the green EQX
HOIST the green PSX
HOIST the green AGY

HOIST the red TMS
HOIST the red MUL
HOIST the red NTG

Bon voyage and God's speed
Captain Chaza

capn

julles

Member

Post Number: 514
Registered: 01-2003

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Thursday, November 20, 2003 - 12:25 pm:

Gosh Captain, sometimes I just can't see why you hoist them, ...
But they go up!
Lum open .63 and up to .67 as I type..
Julles

spider

Member

Post Number: 1246
Registered: 10-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0