Weinstein Trading Group - Anyone interested?

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Archive through 12 December, 2003 wambam 25 1 12-Dec-03 10:31 pm

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squiresk

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Post Number: 65
Registered: 03-2003

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Thursday, December 18, 2003 - 04:16 pm:

For those interested in possible WS II stocks from the UK, heres one for you. Gold sector! (LSE) AVM, 8 year data, 200d,20d EMA + volume

Hope the URL works.

http://www.advfn.com/cmn/chrt/chrt_wrap.php?epic=AVM&name=&type=1&sprd=0&size=3& period=12&freq=1&date1_day=27&date1_month=10&date1_year=1986&date2_day=18&date2_ month=12&date2_year=2003&ind_type1=1&ind1_1=&ind2_1=&ind_type2=8&ind1_2=&ind2_2= &ind_type3=0&ind1_3=&ind2_3=&ma_type1=3&o_1maday1=20&o_2maday1=&o_colour1=1&olx_ 1=3&ma_type2=3&o_1maday2=200&o_2maday2=&o_colour2=4&olx_2=3

I have a holding, although not in 25p where Weinstein would have been in.

Anyone have any ideas when its too late to enter WII stocks?

Kai.

Claudius, I'll be getting back to you.

Are you interested in all stages? As I don't short, I have only an interested, on early stage IIs, maybe stage Is. Is there any benefit of having knowledge of IIIs and IVs?

Kai.

squiresk

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Post Number: 66
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Thursday, December 18, 2003 - 04:20 pm:

One other thing.

Regarding the TA/FA debate.

FA can tell you nothing about what some are prepared to pay for things. Charts do.

And one more thing, anyone else feel its Friday?

i_claudius

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Post Number: 1105
Registered: 11-2002

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Thursday, December 18, 2003 - 04:34 pm:

Kai

The main benefit of 3 is being alert to the thought that 4 lies ahead ... so range trade with care

The main benefit of 4 is not being in it if you can't short and don't want to live dangerously (according to Weinstein)

In fact from memory Weinstein says never ever trade long in Stage 4 ... can anyone confirm if that is his exact advice?

So while concentrating on Stage 2 it can be useful to know if Stocks are in other Stages and to monitor their performance to see if the Weinstein ideas about each stage are holding true ... that is from a research perspective ... not from a trading perspective.

Stage 1 stocks that have fallen through Stage 4 and flattened in Stage 1 may be worth watching for confirmation of breakout into early Stage 2 ... some people will act early and others late in that process of apparent recovery.
The risk is always of a failure and lapse into lower prices.

Again Weinstein has specific thoughts on confirmation of Stage 2, which someone may care to repeat for the benefit of those like myself who don't yet own the Weinstein Bible.

In summary Kai there's nothing wrong with concentrating on Stage 2, if that is your preference.

With Best Wishes

Claudius

new2waix

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Post Number: 356
Registered: 10-2003

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Thursday, December 18, 2003 - 04:57 pm:

Homework:

Post charts and analysis on stocks worthy of the group keeping an eye on.

Of interest would be stocks:
- Stage 1, stage 2
- Stage 1 break outs
- Stage 2 continuation buys (ie stocks nearing 30 Wk WMA)
- Stocks with moving average crossovers (ie shorter MA crosses up through longer MA)
- Any stock with large increase in volume
- Any stocks with twiggs, price ratio (RS), MACD pointing up
- Any with lots of green candles
- Etc etc you get the idea

If it meets all the criteria - it would be a good idea to keep a records of it's performance to see if we're on the right track. Clearly if a stock meets all criteria we want to know about it!

:-)

shawky

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Post Number: 79
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Thursday, December 18, 2003 - 08:12 pm:

It's been Friday all week here, or was it Sunday, regardless the buyers are on holiday.

Claudius
In locating Stage 2 an Stage 4 stocks, I assume it goes beyond the ASX100 this time. How about some rules regarding liquidity to reduce the scope? e.g $100,000 per day at least once in the past week?

Late Stage 1 stocks, if I have read
http://www.tradersnetwork.org/education_channel/articles/weinstein_stage_analysi s.htm
correctly suggests volume dries up then increases before Stage 2. Hence a suitable volume increase would allow inclusion into the list. SRA appears to be a potential for a classic example. Volume dried up followed by a significant increase in volume without a matching change in price. Assuming this develops into a strong uptrend, then it would be a classic Stage 1 to Stage 2 transition.
Maybe this is an assessment we can each make before submitting the stock code?

Or did this get defined before and I missed it?

regards
Shawky

i_claudius

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Thursday, December 18, 2003 - 09:24 pm:

Shawky

My personal interest at present is the ASX100 but if you want to add some spice with additional non-ASX100 stocks go for it ...

This is New2's group so for his purposes you would need to follow his directions ... but in sending me stuff I think it should be a confirmed breakout with volume following a 15 wma crossing up over the 30 wma and then a retracement down towards the 30 wma creating a higher low that does not breach the 30 wma.

This may not be the perfect Weinstein definition but it is good enough for my purpose, especially when followed by a higher high ... and good volume as the bounces from higher lows emerge ...

With Best Wishes

Claudius

i_claudius

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Thursday, December 18, 2003 - 09:28 pm:

Re liquidity I would be inclined to stick to the ASX200 personally ... not too fussed about liquidity if the Stage 2 is solid ... but again I think New2 has set the rules for this group and those rules should be followed when doing things for the group

Claudius

new2waix

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Post Number: 358
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Thursday, December 18, 2003 - 11:27 pm:

Anyone can make contributions to this forum and this is not my group, but OUR group.

Our objective is to find an easy way to pick winners and make money.

I am just hoping that any information compiled can be shared with the group and results compared. Ideally 'bold' or write down any stocks you mention so we can trace back our footsteps.

I've set down some rules that I believe eliminate losers, and leave high probable winners. You're welcome to add, delete to my rules. I'm simply throwing ideas around.

Cheers for now :-)

investinit

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Post Number: 30
Registered: 08-2003

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Saturday, December 20, 2003 - 04:31 am:

BIL's volume appeared to dry up from Nov 18 to Dec 1 (as Shawky noted for SRA), then on Dec 2 it jumped to over twice the average as the price headed for the 30 WMA (see chart 1). Volume dropped on a pull back then increased again as the price rose. I took a punt on my early learning of Weinstein Stage 2 trends so hope this one has got legs. By the way, I think Stan says that volume doesn't necessarily have to dry up before entering Stage 2.

Char1 1 (6 months):

Obviously some resistance around the 5.20 area should be expected.

Chart 2 (12 years):

Alternatively, there's RED at the lower end of the spectrum which may also be called Stage 2:

(The trend lines above are only meant to approximate stages)

I think there is room for all qualities of stocks, ASX100 or non-index provided they follow the trends. As this is TA, not FA, it shouldn't make any difference.

Hey, but I have a whole year (almost) of trading experience and I'm not in profit at the moment, so this may not account for anything. However in my defence I've only started to read Stan's book and I'm pretty confident it will get my results back to positive territory if I can fit the theory to the market.

Regards,
Investinit
(Hoping for some good results once I return from Christmas holidays)

(Message edited by investinit on December 20, 2003)

i_claudius

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Post Number: 1112
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Saturday, December 20, 2003 - 06:01 am:

Hello Investinit

This chart from a recent analysis of the ASX100 seems to confirm that the stocks involved do operate as Weinstein expects ...

This research is still a work in progress ... if you would like to share in the process of discovery I would like to send anyone interested a spreadsheet to fill in with their Weinstein Stage selections for the ASX100

Just doing this gives some insight into how particular stocks are behaving at present ... and the sharing of survey findings will hopefully assist that process further

With Best Wishes

Claudius

....................................................................................................................................................

Forum1

create

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Post Number: 176
Registered: 12-2002

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Saturday, December 20, 2003 - 11:07 am:

Hi Claudius,

Nice graph work!

Am I reading it correctly? Do we conclude from your graph that it is more profitable to trade long in the current market conditions, than it is to trade short?

It would have been interesting to see a similar graph during the "bear" stage of the market, wouldn't it?

cheers,
Create

On the question of a suitable exit strategy.. ask yourself am I likely to be able to purchase this share at a cheaper price?

i_claudius

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Registered: 11-2002

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Saturday, December 20, 2003 - 11:20 am:

Hi Create

I think there are many here in this forum who advise trading only in the same direction as the market, and others who don't worry about that ...

What does Weinstein say? I've read the book but don't have it to refer to right now ...

I am only guessing but I presume the chart would indeed show higher falls for Stage 4 stocks during a falling market.

That is yet to be confirmed by actual research ... so bring on the bears!

I presume Weinstein would advocate being long in Stage 2 and short in Stage 4 stocks, but from memory I am not sure whether he links that to the overall market direction or not ...

With Best Wishes

Claudius

create

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Post Number: 177
Registered: 12-2002

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Saturday, December 20, 2003 - 12:07 pm:

He tell us not to trade against the market flow (page 75).

Since the market has an overall upward bias, it would be interesting to know if the profits made (going long) during bull phases are higher than the profit made going short during a bear phase.

According to Weinstein though, stocks fall much faster than they rise because fear causes panic selling.

This could be a very long "research project".

cheers,
Create

On the question of a suitable exit strategy.. ask yourself am I likely to be able to purchase this share at a cheaper price?