Archive through 10 March, 2004
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     new2waix
Member
Username: new2waix
Post Number: 573
Registered: 10-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, March 06, 2004 - 04:13 pm: | 
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Captain's Log - 2004/03 (March)
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captain_chaza
Member
Username: captain_chaza
Post Number: 731
Registered: 02-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, March 07, 2004 - 01:11 pm: |
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Ahoy Crew
I will try and rid the weather patterns of the HTML gremlins
Yes! You are quite right Sea-Cadet-Officer Braveheart
The crew have not been too helpful lately but it maybe because the Captain's failure to delegate job's onboard
necessary to turn a ship of this size around
It would be nice to have some help and some weather pattern alerts
Weather Pattern Alerts
Here is a list of the various kinds of Weather Chart Patterns that can be detected.
HOIST and LOWER signals are very simple patterns that should be confirmed before placing an order.
The HOISTing strategy signal is used when it is calculated that more Bullish skippers prefer a Northerly direction than the Southerly course.
How many Skippers have won the Sydney to Hobart by heading in the wrong direction or better put
A direction no-one else was taking????
LEARNING to Set- Sail on the ASX and living through it
Is a prize in itself?
Seamanship Tips and Old Sailors' Tales
#1 "The Wind always calls the Tune"
HOISTING Tactics
...X <-- buy signal
OX X
OXoXO
OXOXO
OXOXO
OXO O <-- not a sell signal yet
O
When the last signal on the chart was a buy signal, that is, the last breakout was a column of Xs going higher than the previous column of Xs and no sell signal (no column of Os breaking below the previous column of Os) has happened since the buy signal.
LOWERING Tactics
X
XO
XOX X <-- not a buy signal yet
XOXOX
XOXOX
XO OX
...O <-- sell signal
When the last signal on the chart was a Southerly signal, that is, the last breakout was a column of Os going lower than the previous column of Os and no buy signal (no column of Xs breaking above the previous column of Xs) has happened since the sell signal.
Double tops and bottoms are the simplest weather patterns to identify and are the building blocks of all other patterns.
Double Top Breakout
X <-- double top breakout
X X <-- double top
OXOX
OXOX
OXOX
OX
O
For a double top, prices rise to a certain level and then retreat because the supply outstripped the demand at that level. If prices rise again to the level at which they retraced before, it is called a double top. If prices continue to carry through that level, a double top breakout is easily recognized . The double top breakout alert implies that the buyers are now creating more demand than there is supply at the level of the double top and we have a breakout.
Double Bottom Breakdown Line Sqalls
X
XO
XOX
XOXO
XOXO
O O <-- double bottom
O <-- double bottom breakdown
A double bottom is similar, but in reverse. Prices fall to a certain level and then reverse because the demand outstripped the supply at that level. If prices fall again to the level at which they stopped before, it is called a double bottom. If prices continue to fall through that level, a double bottom breakdown is recognized by our alert system. The double bottom breakdown implies that the buyers who were supporting the price are no longer able to create demand that is more than the supply, and prices are breaking down.
Triple Top Breakout 3rd time Lucky belated Spring gales
.....X <-- triple top breakout
X X X <-- triple top
OXOXOX
OXOXOX
OXOXO
OXO
OX
O
A triple top breakout is similar to a double top breakout except that the price at which the breakout occurred is a price that the chart retraced from two times before. This implies that the price level is a more significant area of resistance (area where sellers are willing to sell the stock and create supply that outstrips demand) than what is seen on a double top. The breakout above this level implies that the buyers are now creating more demand than there is supply and therefore the prices are breaking out.
Triple Bottom Breakdown Line Sqalls
X
XO
XOX
XOXOX
XOXOXO
XOXOXO
O O O <-- triple bottom
.....O <-- triple bottom breakdown
A triple bottom breakdown is similar to a double bottom breakdown except that the price at which the breakdown occurred is a price that the chart retraced from two times before. This implies that the price level is a more significant area of support (area where buyers are willing to buy the stock and create demand that outstrips supply) than what is seen on a double bottom. The breakdown below this level implies that the sellers are now creating more supply than there is demand and therefore the prices are breaking down.
Quadruple Top Breakout and Spring Gales
...... X <-- quadruple top breakout
X X X X <-- quadruple top
OXOXOXOX
OXOXOXOX
OXOXOXO
OXOXO
OXO
O
A quadruple top breakout is similar to a triple top breakout, except that the prices break out after retracing from the same level three times. The fourth time the demand was able to outstrip the supply at the price level, and prices broke out with a quadruple top breakout.
Quadruple Bottom Breakdown
X
XOX
XOXOX
XOXOXOX
XOXOXOXO
XOXOXOXO
O O O O <-- quadruple bottom
...... O <-- quadruple bottom breakdown
A quadruple bottom breakdown is similar to a triple bottom breakdown, except that the prices break down after retracing from the same level three times. The fourth time the supply was able to outstrip the demand at the price level, and prices broke down with a quadruple bottom breakdown.
Ascending Triple Top Breakout
... X <-- ascending triple top breakout
X X X
X XOX
OXOXO
OXOXO
OXO
OX
O
A double top followed by another double top, or three tops, each higher than the previous is recognized as an ascending triple top breakout. The idea is that demand is continuing to outstrip supply on an ongoing basis.
Descending Triple Bottom Breakdown
X
XO
XOX
XOXO
XOXOX
O OXO
...OXO
...O O
....O <-- descending triple bottom breakdown
A double bottom followed by another double bottom, or three bottoms, each lower than the previous is recognized as an descending triple bottom breakdown. The idea is that supply is continuing to outstrip demand on an ongoing basis.
Bullish Catapult Breakout
.....X <-- bullish catapult breakout
...X X
.X XOX
OXOXOXOX
OXOXOXO
OXOXO
A triple top breakout followed by a double top breakout is recognized as a bullish catapult breakout. The implication is that there was supply at the triple top level that was keeping prices from going up, but the triple top breakout took some of that supply away. Prices then retraced, allowing more buyers to create demand which continued to power the up move in prices.
Bearish Catapult Breakdown
X X X
XOXOXOX
XOXOXOXO
.O O OXO
.....O O
.......O <-- bearish catapult breakdown
A triple bottom breakdown followed by a double bottom breakdown is recognized as a bearish catapult breakdown. The implication is that there was demand at the triple bottom level that was keeping prices from falling, but the triple bottom breakdown took some of that demand away. Prices then reversed up, allowing more sellers to create supply which continued the selling which broke below the double bottom level creating the bearish catapult breakdown.
Bullish Signal Reversed
X
X XO
X XOXO
X XOXOXO
XOXOXO O
XOXO O <-- bullish signal reversed
XO
X
X
This pattern is a series of rising tops and bottoms that finally soaks up all demand and the double bottom breakdown at the end signals that now supply is outstripping demand.
Bearish Signal Reversed
X
XOX
XOXOX X <-- bearish signal reversed
XOXOXOX X
XO OXOXOX
X O OXOX
X O OX
X O
X
X
This pattern is a series of falling tops and bottoms that finally soaks up all the supply and the double top breakout at the end signals that now demand is outstripping supply.
Bullish Triangle Breakout
Bearish Triangle Breakdown
X
XO
XOX X <-- bullish triangle breakout
XOXOX X
XOXOXOX
XOXOXOX
XOXOXOX
XOXOXO
XOXO
XO
X
X
XO
XOX
XOXOX
XOXOXOX
XOXOXOXO
XOXOXOXO
XOXOXO O
XOXO O <-- bearish triangle breakdown
XO
X
Triangles are formed when both the supply and demand for the stock are drying up. Prices are unable to rise but neither are they able to fall, there is an equilibrium between the buying and selling as is seen by the rising bottoms and the falling tops that form the triangle. This stalemate between buyers and sellers is finally resolved by a double top breakout in the case of a bullish triangle breakout, or by a double bottom breakdown in the case of a bearish triangle breakdown. This is one of the most reliable patterns out of all the patterns recognized by the system.
Long Tail Down Reversal
X X
XOXO
XOXOX
XOXOXO
XOXOXO
X O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
OX <-- long tail down reversal
OX
OX
O <-- long tail down
This pattern is recognized when the prices drop 20 boxes or more. After such a steep decline, the first reversal provides a good trading opportunity, but the steep drop should give the buyer pause.
Bull Trap
X <-- triple top breakout
X X XO
XOXOXO
XOXOXO <-- bull trap (quick reversal)
XO O
X
A bull trap is a triple top breakout followed by a reversal after only one box is made in the triple top breakout. The breakout is possibly due to buy stops being hit just above the resistance level, and the quick reversal suggests lower prices ahead.
Bear Trap
X
XO
XOX
XOXO
XOXOX
XOXOXOX <-- bear trap (quick reversal)
XOXOXOX
XO O OX
O <-- triple bottom breakdown
A bear trap is a triple bottom breakdown followed by a reversal after only one box is made in the triple bottom breakdown. The breakdown is possibly due to stop loss orders or short orders being hit just below the support level, and the quick reversal suggests higher prices ahead.
Spread Triple Top
X <-- spread triple top breakout
X X X <-- spread triple top
XOXOX X
XOXOXOX
XOXOXOX
XOXOXO
XOXO
XO
X
A spread triple top breakout is similar to a triple top breakout except that the price at which the breakout occurred is a price that the chart retraced from two times before in the recent past. The two time do not have to be immediately preceding the current column. This alert implies that the price level is a significant area of resistance (area where sellers are willing to sell the stock and create supply that outstrips demand). The breakout above this level implies that the buyers are now creating more demand than there is supply and therefore the prices are breaking out.
Spread Triple Bottom Breakdown
O
OX
OXO
OXOX X
OXOXOX
OXOXOXO
OXOXO O
O O O <-- spread triple bottom
O <-- spread triple bottom breakdown
A spread triple bottom breakdown is similar to a triple bottom breakdown except that the price at which the breakdown occurred is a price that the chart retraced from two times before in the recent past. This implies that the price level is a significant area of support (area where buyers are willing to buy the stock and create demand that outstrips supply). The breakdown below this level implies that the sellers are now creating more supply than there is demand and therefore the prices are breaking down.
High Pole
X
XO
XO
XO
X XO
XOXO <-- high pole warning (more than 50% reversal)
XOX
XOX
XO
X
The high pole warning is given when a chart rises above a previous high by at least 3 boxes but then reverses to give back at least 50 percent of the rise. The reversal implies that the demand that was making the prices rise has given way to supply pressure. The pattern is a warning that lower prices could be seen in the future.
Low Pole Reversal
O
O
OX
OXO
OXO
O OX <-- low pole warning (more than 50% reversal)
OX?
OX?
OX? <-- the next reversal down for entry
O ?
? <-- stop loss level
The low pole reversal is seen when a chart falls below a previous low by at least 3 boxes but then reverses to rise by at least 50 percent of the fall. The reversal implies that the supply that was making the prices fall has been absorbed and demand is taking over. The pattern is an alert that higher prices could be seen in the future. The ideal buy point would be on another reversal back down to be closer to the stop loss point. This would also set up a double top breakout if the prices reverse up and break over the current columns high.
Hopefully Admiaral Colin and his Incredidle Crew have what it takes to help the "Incredulous crew" in their search for more excellence
In the meantime any help from TA'ers is always appreciated
Hoping that gets rid of most of the little gremlins??
Captain Chaza
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captain_chaza
Member
Username: captain_chaza
Post Number: 732
Registered: 02-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, March 07, 2004 - 01:26 pm: |
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Ahoy crew
Seems like I can't rid the thumbnail weather patterns
Please ignore them as some of the Kisses and Hugs are all over the place
Ahoy Admiral Colin
Please feel free to fix them up if you wish and have the time
I think the crew get the idea anyway
Gee I hate HTML
(Message edited by Captain_Chaza on March 07, 2004)
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mosaic1996
Member
Username: mosaic1996
Post Number: 637
Registered: 01-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, March 07, 2004 - 03:13 pm: |
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Hi Cap,
Last time I looked at the logs of this incredible voyage, I notice that several of the older sails were a little the worse for wear - badly torn and flapping in the breeze. I have observed on several occasions lesser Captains than yourself being distracted by raggedy old sails, lamenting past errors due to their prominence on the masts.
I also suspect that our time at sea has resulted in several barnacles attaching themselves to our hull which would more than likely be having a detrimental effect on the coefficient of friction (based on my limited physics training).
I would also like to point out that it is Moomba this weekend in Melbourne (your home port), and this is the time for Melburnians to get together and have fun.
Well as a humble sailor I have a bold (and possibly hairbrained) suggestion to make to the mighty Cap of the Incredulous.
[Deep breath]
I would like to suggest that we
a) LOWER all sails first thing Monday morning
b) put the Incredulous into dry dock for a good scrapping
c) have fun during the short shore break
c) HOIST new sails on Tuesday morning
No doubt many (if not most) of the new sails will have the same name (and colour) as the old sails. I suspect that some sails that are lowered would not be raised again - if this is the case, then it would be a worthwhile exercise.
It would also give you the opportunity to bring some of the sails back to their former glory (original value) if warranted, and perhaps trim or boost others.
As the total value of the Incredulous sails is nearly double the original value, would it be appropriate to upgrade to bigger and more expensive sales to bring our colour coded sails back near the original percentage of portfolio value.
Alternatively, and possibly better suited to the recent tactic of raising multiple sails, and to facilitate taking part profits, we could keep the current value of sails and raise 2 sails at a time.
Cheers,
Mosaic
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mosaic1996
Member
Username: mosaic1996
Post Number: 639
Registered: 01-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, March 07, 2004 - 03:50 pm: |
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Sorry to hear about your pride and joy Spids.
As you rightly point out there are many more prides and joys than the material ones. You can always get another Jag.
Cheers,
Mosaic
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nicola
Member
Username: nicola
Post Number: 95
Registered: 06-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, March 07, 2004 - 06:20 pm: |
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Capitanio,
KAZ looks interesting,
what do you think?
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captain_chaza
Member
Username: captain_chaza
Post Number: 733
Registered: 02-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, March 07, 2004 - 07:01 pm: |
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Oh Loyal Sea Cadet-Officer Mossie
We are too far out to sea to do some academic practice drill
Sure we have had a lot of trouble bettering our personal best overall 80% lately but the Spreads are large
I see no point in writing off any sail yet as there is still a long time before "Tax" drills come into play
We have some very underpriced sails at the moment and Sellers are very rare
You could say we are the very proud owners of some ordinary sails but who on earth could replace that number
Try hoisting say $15k AYOO
Try hoisting say $10k BKM
Try hoisting say $20k AGT
At the last closing price to name just a few
Maybe the worst is over?
We have also been unlucky in that the closing price always seems to end on the buyers price
This often happens in a retracement phase and can put a 10% difference to our bottom line
If the Fremantle Doctor comes in on time next Friday all will be well in the state of Denmark
I do agree with you that maybe the Captain has been too cautious
When we started out with $250k in MAY 2003 a small red spinnaker cost $5000 =2%
Now that we are sailing around with over double it does seem appropriate to spend maybe $10k on a red spinnaker =2%
The question is how you spend your hard earned ?
We yachties are notorious for never having enough money to fund our sport to its fullest
Do you buy 2 reds to sell 1 on the way up
OR
Do you buy 1 and then get a feel for things and then average up or down with another 1?
OR #1 green
Each way it can cost $10k
I have been reluctant to purchase bargain sails in the past as you know but sometimes they are so tempting
What I realized was that I was discriminating against the bargains I had already got caught up in the rudder and went for other sailors' mistakes
These were new and untried sails
New to us !
What's best about buying a bargain you already have tangled up in the rudder is that you know more about the devil she is
It then gives you 2 chances to exit
If we had have averaged down with the AUN when she was the biggest loss we had ever faced maybe we would have been happy to break even and kept #1 a mast
Instead what did we do?
I really can't remember but hopefully a green is a green is a green and we still came out on top ????
You are a true Gentleman and Officer Mossie and I am very proud to have you onboard
I forgot to ask you at the Xmas party
Are you an ex Northcote High Boy?
Captain Chaza
PS I think what you are asking Officer Mossie
"What is a good way of judging the Seaworthiness of a craft"
If I am correct E-mail me direct
( ckirzner@iprimus.com.au )
with a confidentiality statement
After a little practice I am sure you will then be able to give us all a much better than average sea-worthy report
(if your time permits)
The only limitation I would like to ask you is to exclude in these practice drills the OIL class!!!
I would love to see you outperform your beloved Oils with only the Hidden Keel Technology in the other classes of sail
After only a couple of days I am confident you will be able to give us all a *1 or *2 star rating on almost anything that is sea-worthy
I will then ask a few still loyal onboard to rate them again using other cutting edge technology by invitation
All are available on IC and under everyones nose!!!
Naturally!!!
Confidentiality will always be at a premium in these R&D and tunnel testing exercises
I only trust my shipmates on the Good ship "Incredulous" whom I have become to love and respect for all their good and their bad
Come to think of it
I have never met a bad seaman
Only Bad Landlubbers
Maybe with a little help instead of abuse we might be able to work both ends of the ship and hit the $1M by financial year's end
PS Ahoy Sea-cadet Nicola Spielberg
That was a little bitchy!
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julles
Member
Username: julles
Post Number: 800
Registered: 01-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, March 08, 2004 - 08:43 am: |
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Hope you all enjoying your long weekend!
Thanks new2 for the March thread.
Julles
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susieq
Member
Username: susieq
Post Number: 237
Registered: 12-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, March 08, 2004 - 10:10 am: |
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Jules
Glad your daughter got through the op OK. In these cases no news is always good news. And it is really great to hear from you.
CC
The pretty x and o's leave me absolutely confused. I have tried interpreting but they are a foreign language to me. I even tilted my head on the side to see if they worked that way. I am sorry to say that for this mug punter they remain a mystery. Appreciate the effort to train the crew.
For this weekend and afterhours sailor I have been concentrating on the slower but more steady sails, not the fast and swifter tacks the Incredulous normally favours.
I was very pleased with the NDC diamond studded sail it did very well roaring my little ship along at a great rate of knots.
Like Nicola I favour KAZ and another would be Falcon Resources FCN. Both I have already hoisted.
Will be checking the other sails to see if I can find any other possibilities to help the Incredulous move north east.
Cheers
SusieQ
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susieq
Member
Username: susieq
Post Number: 238
Registered: 12-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, March 08, 2004 - 11:46 am: |
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Am I sailing solo this morning? Have all the crew jumped ship, did they fail to make it back to the ship after last shore leave?
Jules, are you cooking up a storm in the galley?
CC, is there no one on the bridge with instructions this drizzly cold Melbourne morning?
Mr Spids have you waken from your mornings rest after your late night watches?
SusieQ ( feeling lonely with no one to cheer on)
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captain_chaza
Member
Username: captain_chaza
Post Number: 734
Registered: 02-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, March 08, 2004 - 03:09 pm: |
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Ahoy Cadet-Officer and Cheer leader SusieQ
I thought I'd give the crew a rest while I survey all the sails
I quite like your FCN
A almost classic "Tandem Sail" set up"
Maybe some of the crew could keep a look out and find some more of these strong wind shifting situations
Set the Weekly SAR and the Daily SAR on the same daily chart
Wham Bam Thankyou Mam
There are lots of tricks as there is in every instrument
but generally speaking
Thankyou Captain Wilder
The green SRI is very interesting
The price is trending Down but they can't trick us!
We have the RSI onboard
Captain Chaza
Ahoy Admiral Colin
Is it possible to design a search engine to capture these all important Tandem Parabolic air pressure changes
In the meantime I prey we have some diligent seamen onboard the Good Ship 'Incredulous to do it the hard way
PS SQ
Don't be too concerned with todays move
The OBV will look horrible but we fortunately threw it overboard years ago
(Message edited by Captain_Chaza on March 08, 2004)
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spider
Member
Username: spider
Post Number: 1508
Registered: 10-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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