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Trade Trends with Bollonger Bands and Twiggs Money Flow

Educating a new investor

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prater64
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Username: prater64

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Registered: 03-2010

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Sunday, March 07, 2010 - 12:27 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Ok I've been looking through a number of stocks trying my hand at trendlines and such before I even go near actually making any trades, so forgive me if I've posted to the wrong forum.

I'm actually wondering what people are thinking will occur at this point. The chart is a 6 month chart for NCM_AX. From what I see, it has an over all bearish appearance. Recent short term resistance has been around $33.50, volume has peaked a little with the previous lows, however it appears to be flat with the current increase in price. MACD and SSTO are both above their reference (indicating to go long - am I correct in that interpretation?). I'm only now looking into the candlestick style of charts and haven't found a pattern as such to fit (would appreciate opinions for me to look up).

At present with my limited knowledge I'd be tempted to place a buy, but would that be a mistake if I had more experience? Thoughts and opinions?


NCM 6 mnth Chart


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hershy
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Username: hershy

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Registered: 10-2002

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Monday, March 08, 2010 - 07:45 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Welcome to the forum Corey.
You ask what will occur at this point.
I cannot tell you.
I can however tell you what the chart shows, something that you also see. There is a channel that seems to contain the price movement. Channel top has held up quite well, channel bottom is not as well defined.There is also a horizontal resistance line implied which NCM will need to penetrate in the first instance to get anywhere. If it does not, a fall to or towards channel bottom is quite likely.
Now let's look closer.
It is commonly accepted that charts do not like gaps and eventually they get closed. Not necessarily right away but sooner or later most of them do get closed. NCM has 4 smallish gaps below the present price levels and one rather large one above. They will be exerting a gravitational pull on the price action and it remains to be seen which gap is going to be the dominant one.
If the lower gaps are more influential then you can expect NCM to re-visit what appears to be support levels around $31 but if the overhead gap is the stronger one then the SP will clearly head towards the $35.31 levels.
A look at the last few swings will show two large swings, with the last down swing being somewhat weaker that the penultimate up swing. This suggests the upwards momentum is now stronger than the downward one and the last upswing is again just slightly larger than the preceding down swing. So the momentum is most likely but not decisively upwards.
Now let's look at some fundamental information. To say that NCM is a gold producer is like saying that Toyota make cars.
It is a huge gold producer so the NCM price moves will track the movements in the price of gold. Gold is expected to re-test the US$1120 zone but not expected to fall through it.
Now let's put everything together.
I see no indications of the likely direction in the price movement but I can decide to take advantage of any sign that may be given in the next few days.
If the bullish wave continues (unlikely after 7 up days) then I am looking for a new swing high. This could/should be to the open gap or just above where the Elliot wave 3 would be expected to peak - shown as a circle on my chart.
If this does not happen and instead the price bounces off the channel top, I will be looking for a move to channel bottom to around $31 and I would either short the move down or wait for the SP to reach that level and trade the move upwards.
Southern Cross equities' Charlie Aitken argues that Aussie instos have very little exposure to NVM, much less than overseas instos and they will need to get on board to balance out their investmenet in the ASX 100 and his target is the $40 level. That's close to a 30% move from channel bottom and is well worth trading should that opportunity present itself.
A glance at a line chart shows a possible H&S 2/3rds completed.







'You, you, and you ... Panic. The rest of you, come with me.'
http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/

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prater64
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Wednesday, March 10, 2010 - 10:09 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hershy, Thanks for the reply it's been very informative. I've kept an eye on the first day of this week to see how it goes and have also been looking at the TAZ thread to see how that applies to NCM.

Basically though I think I still have a lot to learn, so will have to take it slow.







"Opinions: Opinions are like backsides, everyone has one"

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profits
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Username: profits

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Tuesday, October 05, 2010 - 09:57 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Hershy,

How did you see which swing is stronger or weaker like you said "with the last down swing being somewhat weaker that the penultimate up swing"?

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