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Weinstein Stage 1

Chart Forum » Trading - Systems » Archive through March 18, 2004 » Weinstein Stage 1

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Archive through 18 November, 2003myklan25 18-Nov-03  04:55 pm
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i_claudius
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Saturday, November 22, 2003 - 01:12 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Julles

I would not have held them through Stage 4 and Stage 1 but some people must have either held all the way down or bought in to the stock as others left ... now their patience and/or foresight may be rewarded if a valid move to Stage 2 is effected and is sustained.

That is the big "if" ... I was interested if you knew why life is breathing into the price?

Has the company reported doing anything new and different to what it has been doing during the long decline?

Claudius


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julles
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Saturday, November 22, 2003 - 01:16 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Nope sorry! Night Julles







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myklan
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Saturday, November 22, 2003 - 01:05 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi All,
After a good workout on the golf course this morning, have got the results for yesterdays scan.

Stage 1 Stock Scan v 1.4b

application/vnd.ms-excel
Stg1 V1_4b 031121.xls (30.2 k)



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palace
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Sunday, November 23, 2003 - 10:34 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



nw2& myk

well done !much appreciated

mick


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myklan
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Sunday, November 23, 2003 - 09:50 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



palace,
Have you had a chance to look thru the list?
How do you think we can we improve the list?
Any shares jump out at you and suggest we consider them as buy scenarios?

Regards
myklan


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palace
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Monday, November 24, 2003 - 08:02 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi myk

no chance yet ,but certainly will

mick


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new2waix
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Monday, November 24, 2003 - 06:07 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



SRA (Early stage 1 - Rating D):

-- Looking for a break above 14.5/15 cents.
-- Increasing volume in the last few weeks indicates something is happening (good/bad)?
-- WMA is still in a decline and a lot of resistance probably rate this poorly however may be worth watching.






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new2waix
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Monday, November 24, 2003 - 06:21 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Not to discount the work already done, but I highly recommend everyone spends some time with 'IC Stock Scan - Stage 1 (v.0.1b)'.

Sure it outputs 500+ results, but by spending some time going through the list and using further filters you can discover some beauties.

This same scan can be applied to stage 2 stocks by adjusting the '5%' to a higher number over a shorter period. (I am yet to experiment but would love some feedback).

I have reposted the instructions below.

:-)

------------------------
Repost of instructions:
------------------------

IC Stock Scan - Stage 1 Stocks (v.0.1b):

1) Click on the IC Menu: View > Stock Screening

2) Select: %Price Move -- '1 Year: Maximum 5%'

These variables can be modified! Remember you can limit the scan to sectors, volume or whatever etc etc.

3) Click Submit

4) Outputted Results:

- Right click on the list
- Click 'Create Watchlist Automatically Using All Securities'
- Enter a name for the watchlist

5) Go back to 'Chart Mode'

6) Click on the IC Menu: Watchlists > Set Active Watchlist > Stage 1 Stocks

7) To navigate through the list simply click on the blue arrows (that point upwards/downwards on top right toolbar)

8) Use your eyes to identify stage 1 stocks.

9) Post your results to this forum!


*** The variables and settings can be modified, however I think this is a good starting point.



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new2waix
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Monday, November 24, 2003 - 11:32 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



MIA (Stage 1, Rating D):





(Message edited by new2waix on November 25, 2003)


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myklan
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Saturday, November 29, 2003 - 05:23 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi All,

Stage 1 Ver 1.4 search results, methodology same as last weeks.

Also attached is a .viz file. It is just a text file named with the extension .viz, it needs to be saved to your IC 'user' directory on C: or D: drive depending upon where you installed your copy of IC .

See also notes in forum Hello Weinstien Fans


application/x-msexcel
Stg1 V1_4b 031128.xls (31.2 k)

text/plain
Stage1_031128.txt (5.9 k)



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i_claudius
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Saturday, November 29, 2003 - 06:16 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hello Myklan

I ran your selection through a Claudioscan and these appear to be the 12 main movers in November

I haven't checked the individual stock charts so I am not sure if they are genuine candidates ...

Perhaps others would like to check them out?

Claudius

ST1


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new2waix
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Wednesday, December 03, 2003 - 06:11 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Sorry all!

Unfortunately I have been a little busy and haven't had too much time to post some results of our stage 1 scans.

There have been a few interesting breaks but many on little or no volume.

Thanks Claudius for posting those results. Not bad results for one month!!! ALT 100%+! Wow! :-)

BIL may be worth a watch. A lot of volume as a result of BIL's roadshow. BIL has a habit of rising on market rumours only to disappoint.

If anyone has some feed back or suggestions on how to easily identify stage 1's please let us know.

Cheers for now!

:-)






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new2waix
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Wednesday, December 03, 2003 - 08:51 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



General rules:

1) Break must be on decent volume
2) Buy on pullback
3) Sector and support indicators must preferably be turned up

-----

GGL - Wait for break of 55 cents
MPI - Wait for break above 11.5 cents
CAB - Broke, await further confirmation
BWI - Wait for break above 95
MIA - Wait for break above 67
HZN - Broke, volume issues
SRA - Wait for break above 14.5
ORG - Broke, cry for not buying
MRL - Keep watch
BIL - Keep watch
TMS, ALT - Cry for not buying

Those a re just a few off the lists supplied. Many to go through.

Let us know where they go?

:-)



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myklan
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Saturday, December 06, 2003 - 05:06 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi All,

Stage 1 Ver 1.4 search results, methodology same as last weeks but I have added a filter Mov(V,100,W)>50000.

Also attached is a .txt file. It needs to be saved to your IC 'user' directory on your C: (or D drive depending upon where you installed your copy of IC, and then rename the extension from 'txt' to 'viz' .
If you wish to see what is in it just use any text editor. If saved to your IC 'user' directory you will be able to access the listed files within your watchlist.

See additional notes in forum Hello Weinstien Fans

application/x-msexcel
Stg1 V1_4b 031206.xls (21.5 k)

text/plain
Stage1_031206.txt (2.9 k)



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myklan
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Saturday, December 06, 2003 - 05:24 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Julles,
Have added your selections in this thread, as I cannot locate the original(?) in Hello Weinstein fans.

Stage 1 Ver 1.4 search results, methodology same as last weeks including your proposed filter.

(VOLUME*CLOSE > 60000) AND
(Mov(C,15,W)>Mov(C,150,W) AND
Mov(C,15,W)<1.1*Mov(C,150,W)) AND
Mov(C,15,W)>Mov(C,30,W)


Also attached is a .txt file. It needs to be saved to your IC 'user' directory on your C: (or D: drive depending upon where you installed your copy of IC, and then rename the extension from 'txt' to 'viz' .
If you wish to see what is in it just use any text editor. If saved to your IC 'user' directory you will be able to access the listed files within your watchlist.

See additional notes in forum Hello Weinstein Fans

application/x-msexcel
Stg1 V1_4b 031206_Julles.xls (14.3 k)

text/plain
Stage1_031206_Julles.txt (0.7 k)




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myklan
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Saturday, December 20, 2003 - 03:59 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi All,
Stage 1 results - still looking at better or different selection criteria

application/x-msexcel
Stg1 V1_4b 031220.xls (23.6 k)

application/x-msexcel
Stg1 V1_4b 031220_Julles.xls (15.4 k)

text/plain
Stage1_031220.txt (3.2 k)

text/plain
Stage1_031220_Julles.txt (0.8 k)



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new2waix
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Saturday, February 14, 2004 - 01:57 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



It's been a long time since there has been a post to this thread, but I thought you'd be interested in some stage 1 results.

Back in December 2003 I put together a list of stage 1 stocks. For each stock I recorded their resistance, rating (A, B, C, D) and close price.

Well 2 months later the average return from stage 1 stocks that broke out is 19%. That is comparing Friday's (13/02) close with December's close prices.

Some of the winners include:
ASC
BIL
BSA
BUG
CLH
HWW
LKO
MCC
MIA
ORG
THG
BIL
BYI
CBA
CCK
CPN
CSL
SHL
SUN
TEL
NTC

It is important to add, that these stocks are still running and some stocks have pulled back dramatically.

Not a bad result considering many stocks returned above 10% and one stock above 80%+ (LKO)!

*** I am hoping one of the Weinstein Metastock Guru's would send me through an updated Stage 1 report so I can update my spreadsheet. Thanks!!

:-)




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i_claudius
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Saturday, February 14, 2004 - 02:49 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi New2

It is good to see you following up this analysis which theoretically should contain within it some stellar performers .. the problem being how to select them

Your original message asked was it worth establishing a watch list of potential Stage 1 breakout stocks and I responded "Absolutely, Yes"

Myklan was the first to provide a detailed scan list which I've reviewed and from the start of my database (31st October 2003), and with the wonderful view provided by 20/20 hindsight I note it has produced 124 rises, 25 steady and 92 falls, for the following percentages :-

Average Change for Risers ... 24.3% Up
Average Change for Fallers .. 13.4% Down
Average Change Overall ...... 7.4% Up

Since that original list there have been quite a few refinements of the list ... are you working from the original or a later one?

One point is that I am working from raw unadjusted data so there is no recognition of splits, consolidations, dividends etc (except for DOW which I happened to remember did have a 4 for 1 consolidation which I've allowed for).

In selecting your winners are you purely relying on hindsight or some selection process that allowed you to classify the winners ahead of their breakout performance?

With the benefit of hindsight how could we have collectively been more aware of breakouts as they happened?

Are there particular triggers that you think we should observe and act upon?

How can we be better prepared for future breakout opportunities? Obviously individual hard work and watchfulness are important, but is there a way we can save each other time?

Perhaps that is what lies behind your request for an up to date scan?

Here's hoping that Myklan our scanning wizard is around!

With Best Wishes


Roger (Executor of the Claudius Literary Estate)

QUOTATION :- "Never stop questioning" ... Posted by Bundy in the Options and Derivatives Forum on Friday, 16 January, 2004 - 21:40


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i_claudius
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Saturday, February 14, 2004 - 03:03 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Again New2

Partially answering my own question about more recent lists the last 2 from Myklan (posted here on 20th December) show returns for the period 31st October 2003 to 13th February 2004 as follows :-

1st List .... Average Change .... 3.7% Up
2nd List .... Average Change .... 14.2% Up

On the face of it the 2nd list seems to weed out quite a few non-performers.

The big question remains how can we help each other to pick the best breakouts at the best time?

With Best Wishes








Roger (Executor of the Claudius Literary Estate)

QUOTATION :- "Never stop questioning" ... Posted by Bundy in the Options and Derivatives Forum on Friday, 16 January, 2004 - 21:40


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new2waix
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Saturday, February 14, 2004 - 05:09 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Claudius,

In order to pick breakouts is tough, but I feel that the below info with a little refinement and weekend homework can be one helpful way to identify winners.

If we rely on the old adage of "bigger the base, bigger the breakout" we should be able to identify the 'best' breakouts.

List construction method:
1) Using the naked eye to identify flat trading stocks
2) Using stage 1 metastock scan results
3) Construct list of stocks that were identified in steps 1 & 2 (picking most suitable)
4) Record close price (at time of creating list)
5) Set an alert price (resistance or 30 Wk WMA)
6) Add a new column for latest prices

Reviewing list:
-- The list alerts me to those stocks trading above the resistance price I have specified
-- I filter out those stock who have not broken out of stage 1

Monitoring the list does take a little bit of work, but this could be done on a weekly basis. I have set up Excel to update the latest prices from Yahoo Finance so everything is automated. I use a formula and filter to alert me to possible trades.

All of the above can be refined, but by reviewing the list on a daily or weekly basis, you should be kept alerted to many of the breaks and major price moves.

The list alerted me to a few good performers, I just had to assess the best entry point.

In regard to specifying an alert price (step 5), this is up to individual interpretation. You can use the 30 Wk WMA or resistance. You find if the stock is a true stage 1, these numbers won't move around too much. Also, you can always set these higher or lower to alert you sooner or later.

Hope this is beneficial.

Regards,

n2w




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i_claudius
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Saturday, February 14, 2004 - 06:21 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi New2

Highly beneficial ... very constructive

This Forum has the capacity to save everyone involved enormous amounts of time if all join in the research in a constructive manner

I look forward to helping in any way possible ...

Just one further thought ... I wonder whether there is a correlation between slope and future rises that is worth pursuing ...

Too steep a slope would be unsustainable perhaps ... but a consistent steady and strong slope? It would be interesting to measure the correlation between past and future slopes ... particularly say last 1, 2, 4, 5 and 8 weeks prior compared to subsequent behaviour ...

Also have regard to proximity to moving average for preferred entry?

What do you think?




Roger (Executor of the Claudius Literary Estate)

QUOTATION :- "Never stop questioning" ... Posted by Bundy in the Options and Derivatives Forum on Friday, 16 January, 2004 - 21:40


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ragesh
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Sunday, February 15, 2004 - 09:55 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi New2

I would like to participate in the search for stage1 and stage2 breakouts.

Can you tell us how to setup Excel to download ASX prices from Yahoo Finance?

Regards,
Ragesh


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new2waix
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Monday, February 16, 2004 - 12:53 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Claudius,

"I wonder whether there is a correlation between slope and future rises that is worth pursuing"

I wouldn't spend too much time pursuing it even though I can see what you're trying to measure.

Stage 1 is flat, stage 2 is rising. Bigger the base, bigger the breakout. Less resistance, the easier the climb up. I don't intend to over complicate things - I'm happy when I am holding one or more stocks that are heading upwards in a 'blind freddy' style.

Ideally I want to hold those stocks that had big bases and no resistance.

"Also have regard to proximity to moving average for preferred entry?"

Aggressively you could enter on the break upwards of the 30 Week Moving average, but when a stock is in stage 1, you will notice it may break up and down several times (as many ranging stocks do). Conservatively you would wait for a break of resistance. Saves you the hassle of false breaks.

Saying that, I have witnessed some big breaks that seem to break resistance and MA at the same time (ie MA, resistance and price cross).

--------------

Ragesh,

Thanks for your interest in assisting in our Weinstein project.

"Can you tell us how to setup Excel to download ASX prices from Yahoo Finance?"

I am running MS Office 2003 (XP) which let's you insert web data into your spreadsheets. I believe you can download an add on from the Microsoft website if you are running a earlier version of Office (or Excel).

Cheers,

n2w

:-)




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new2waix
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Saturday, February 21, 2004 - 07:11 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



For those interested, below are some stage 1 candidates. Note that a few may not meet the criteria.


Stage 1

ANMNA
BPT
BDG
BBG
BRZ
CST
CMQ
CTL
CPA
CSL
CSR
DDF
DOT
DOW
EMP
ENE
ENV
EQI
ERG
FXJ
FKP
FOA
FGL
FCL
GPT
GLB
GGL
GNS
GWT
HWE
HIG
HWI
JFG
KAZ
MAP
MPR
MGR
NCP
NCPDP
OMP
OPS
OEC
PMM
PIF
PRT
QAN
RMD
SMX
SOH
SPC
SGN
TAH
TLS
TIM
UTB
VPG
VRLPA
VSL
WOR




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ragesh
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Sunday, February 22, 2004 - 10:27 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



new2,

Thank you for the help on Excel setup.







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myklan
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Sunday, February 22, 2004 - 09:35 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi All
I'm nearly back, up and running after a normal run of glitches that we have all come to expect with computers.

I wish to only say one word (several times) BACKUP. Backup anything that you think is important - Back it up.

On to CD's, tapes second drives, networks - anywhere just do it. Yes I know the normal hundred or so of excuses not to do it - I used probably 90% of them, and by now some have already skimmed this email and have said yeah, yeah, well to the rest of you - please just do it, and do it regularly. (Backups concentrate I am talking about backing up your data).

More importantly, this last computer episode of mine has set me back roughly 2 months - dare I cry out into the wilderness "it's not fair, why me again". Well, why not, no one will hear me, besides and the dog and cat's stay away from me anyway, and .....it just happens.

The worst is - catching up to where everyone is or has moved on to, as I feel as if I am still just getting out of the late December thought processes, (its not fair)

Anyway enough of my trivial ramblings attached are the Wienstein Stage 1 explorations as per the formulae in this thread. Now wasn't it thoughtful of someone to have put them on this thread as a BACKUP - as a simple cut and paste helped at least to restore this exploration.


application/vnd.ms-excel
Stg1 V1_4b 040221_Julles.xls (15.9 k)


application/vnd.ms-excel
Stg1 V1_4b 040221.xls (23.6 k)


p.s. Please do a Backup - it's not for me it's for yourself.

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