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Trade the Bollonger Band Squeeze

The "Loan Shark" Method

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SideTracks/Commentsdug18-Jan-10  08:36 am
Compoundingdug17-Jan-10  01:52 pm
         

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dug
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Sunday, January 17, 2010 - 10:57 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)





my new avatar/persona.
I'm going to write out my "plan"/method in this thread over the coming month/months.

i'll set up this thread with threads within threads IC system.this can be confusing but basically readers get continuity by using the left hand box main board search instead of going straigt to topic.

see,even first up i go into confusion of the reader.

well,i'm writing to compress my 'experience' into Factors for myself.
not to 'impress' mere browsers with my ideas,or 'teaching' ability etc etc blah.

anyhow,i'm having computer problems and will limit the size of the posts individually so i haven't written a 1000 words only to have them lost/frozen out.


Even 'til Jaded.

Dig for the sake of it.

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dug
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Sunday, January 17, 2010 - 11:18 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



separate comment thread in place above.please use it.

Basically d'Loan Shark Method is a metaphor for the little guy how to make good.play d'big boy game.
loan sharks run a private bank,using 'practical' methods to ensure a profit,a successful business.
yes,they operate outside the law,rules of proper banking but is bashing a 'poor' client all that much worse than eviction from homes especially of Guarantors of collateral?

i think that the methods metaphorically of the loan shark parallel us,pilgrims and our 'confrontation' with the Institutions and the status quo of all those books/experts of 'the right thing to do'.

ie a loan shark wouldn't stand for only a 30% success trading rate and neither will/do I.

the Loan Shark Method,i wish to expound on, is described as a discretionary system,I see.[as opposed to mechanical]
so i suppose i'll just have to discriminate some criteria,philosophy...
later







Even 'til Jaded.

Dig for the sake of it.

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dug
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Sunday, January 17, 2010 - 12:15 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



I'm seeing Buying a share as giving a loan shark loan
and selling as collecting loan shark interest.

loan shark interest calculation is known,in proper financial circles,as Compounding.
that book advertised today over on the right,probably explains such things in depth but it's the rule of 72 and 78 that gives d'basics of compounding
and the main point to get into a newbies head is well,you can't trade for pocket money,a weekly wage.
you have to turnover your capital,rollover profits and only withdraw from your,hopefully,growing trading account perhaps quarterly/annually even.

ie you're a dill,a dilletante if your ambition is to tickle a few more buck$$ to afford your current lifestyle or consumer aspirations,a bleeding ferrari for example.

you should be more concerned with cut to d'bone your personal expenditure than dithering around worried about Brokerage costs.IMHO.
like why are they so cheap?$6 against standard $20,operating in USA outside our jurisdiction?
dubious 'cheper is best' con going down?

at least i can go myself or send in d'pigs to my $20 brokers office.insurance,protection somewhat of my assets,go aussie,pilgrims nix global.
we got enough shark tactics,practioners right here.

don't have a system that over trades and brokerage is just a cost of doing business.ya set up shop in retail on main street instead of cut price in the back backstreet,down some stairs,
unless of course,it's dodgy business.

anyhow the method of the loan shark pivots on Compounding so i'll set up another thread above specifically on this with some examples.

later


Even 'til Jaded.

Dig for the sake of it.

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dug
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Sunday, January 17, 2010 - 05:45 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



got this image by googling share trader

it's titled Trade with the Heathens-Bradbury
and i think the bloke on his knees is a rogue trader with an empty treasure chest result for d'heathen.



i love art that tells a story.


Even 'til Jaded.

Dig for the sake of it.

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dug
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Sunday, January 17, 2010 - 08:18 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



now if you see the Truth in the compounding formulas,outlined above one can come to some conclusions on formulating a method.

like the lower you think you can string winning trades together on a run,the higher percentage return you need to achieve.
ie rule of 78 gives an average rate of 16%ish/each trade to compound double over 5 trades.
also highlighted is the absolute necessity of stop losses preferably in single digit percents.

but mostly i wish to point out the futility of a humble return such as 10% or less.
if one was satisfied by such percents[10>],in fact devised a plan with such as ambition/target?
well,it's slow death,lingering on d'margin because you require 10 trades success in a run to double your money and,well,5 is possible but 10,is 'ambitious'.

how d'hell can i backtest for 15% gain trades,jr?

well,how does a loan shark find his 'marks'?
he knows their type,knows where they hang round,and studies/profiles their ability to pay off/and back his 'exorbitant' required return.

will 'translate' this into Share Plan Making..
next episode.


Even 'til Jaded.

Dig for the sake of it.

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satitoca
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Saturday, May 01, 2010 - 05:26 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hey Dug You Still There?
Was looking forward to this thread, especially the compounding,$10,000 at 10%return =53 winning trades to turn it into $1million put in for any losses on the way=KISS


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jaded
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Sunday, May 02, 2010 - 09:08 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



greetings,or rather welcome back,satitoca.
I've compounded myself out of dug and into jaded.
I note that you have comprehended my point about Compounding 'Interest" that it's the Number OF Times a rate is achieved not the Time one earns it.

Too often I get people looking up the Rule of 78 and being Blinded by the waffle about Bank Interest of say 10% Compounded for 7'n'1/2 years will Double your money.
Big Deal,"they" say we want to get to Mammon quicker than that!!!

When what I want to point out is getting 10% 7n1/2 times will Double in whatever time frame it takes to Do 7'n'1/2 Times 10%.

anyhow,i read your profile satitoca.Still Full Time Trading on a month basis?

There's ways'n'means to use Rule 78 for Reviewing/Culling/Pyramiding let alone watchlist 'discerning' but I can't be expected to cover all these things Cold like with no idea of what you know and what you don't.

If you've got 6 years Full Time Trading experience,we could get into this mutually worthwhile[I'm 'jaded' by trying to explain a System to novices]
or are you really just a KISSer?

(Message edited by jaded on May 02, 2010)


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satitoca
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Sunday, May 02, 2010 - 01:14 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Jaded
I can understand the name change.

No,no longer actively trading probably since financial year.

Traded last year with good results (PYRAMIDED) but prior to that I took my eye off the ball got complacent what ever you want to call it I lost some money (on the market) while setting up a business.

Any way I am accumulating moneys and refining what I had done in the past.This time around I wont require to take out $$$ so it will be PYRAMIDING.
Would be interested to hear how the rule of 78 can/will interact with watch list culling.

Yes I am extremely simple. We can only try, always open to genuine views.

Satitoca


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satitoca
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Sunday, May 02, 2010 - 05:49 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Jaded

Some body asked me probably 2 weeks ago now hey BHP good at this price I said BHP good at any price.Next question
would I buy it? No its over the top.
Guess what, they went ahead and still bought it.
It just pointed out to me that people in general like to ask questions but Dont like to listen (unless it reinforces their own views)
Add to that some thing mathematical (compounding as tought to us in High school) and you got no chance
Good Luck


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espresso
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Sunday, May 02, 2010 - 06:22 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Satitoca,
well done for your honesty post 46.
Good luck with your business venture.
Cheers & Happy Trading.
George


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satitoca
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Monday, May 03, 2010 - 07:52 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Espresso
Thanx, no use in sugar coating or b/s oneself in regards to making or losing money.

Dont believe Shirley,Ego is a dirty word.
Jaded
just set up my white board,and paper got my list next to it with reference to 10,15 &20% returns per transaction.

Add to your pyramiding the possibility of margin say conservative 50% and it starts to get serious.
Satitoca


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jaded
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Monday, May 03, 2010 - 08:33 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



satitoca,
in regards to a Watchlist of Compounding,do you know Alan Hull's method?

satitoca wrote on Monday, May 03, 2010 - 07:52 pm:

the possibility of margin say conservative 50%




Leverage even at a 'conservative' 50% can send you seriously broke.

I don't 'discuss' matters too 'clearly' with Borrowers.They aren't in my 'mind space' and,frankly I don't wish to learn from or 'teach' them.

Borrowing to 'play' compounding?Realise that you are Compounding for the Lender.

do you follow?
It's counter productive,playing both sides with a Lender who's bigger than you.

satitoca you have to DO IT not just work out on paper and a whiteboard how it could be/work.

Loan Sharks work to poverty They who are 'Fast'.Don't be a 'client'.

Happy Trading


" Hear what you Say...
But see what you Do!"

Sir Zelman Cowen c 1970.

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jaded
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Wednesday, May 05, 2010 - 07:24 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



ya ain't gone all 'precious' on me,satitoca?
How dare this git 'dispute' borrowing like by cfd's?

Current Market Conditions DEMAND caution.Especially in the 'recognised' most volatile sectors which is Pennies [under $2 price/Under say $200 mil Market Capitalisation]

You wanna play Only Top 200?

useless to ask me.

Understand You're a Dill to Leverage the most Highly Leveraged/Volatile Sectors.
Ya just Can Not Double Up Leverage.

That's Why one can't Margin Loan "Pennies"
Only get 'some' CFD Coverage of 'Also Running" Mid Caps.

satitoca- Yourself has 'confirmed' that your 6 years 'involvement' has only One Year of Profit Trading.

I'm trying to tell ya that Another Year of Profit will NOT be 'guaranteed' by Leverage.

Frankly,I doubt your head is together for such Activity.

If I've insulted you by such an Assumption?

Go whinge to Ingot54.Whip him up to another diatribe agin me.
Only DILLatantes 'play' with Leverage like 50% Cfd's.

and I?...well don't give a fecal such outfits advertise on this site.It gives NIX Credibility as far as I'm concerned and my Broker?
Got taken over by CMC.

I'm only interested in Techniques to turn $10 grand into $20 into $40 into $80k and then...
ya're on ya own!!

Happy Trading/.


" Hear what you Say...
But see what you Do!"

Sir Zelman Cowen c 1970.

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satitoca
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Wednesday, May 05, 2010 - 07:33 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Jaded
Its been awhile since i have seen it so i searched here and came across quite a few quality posts from a few yrs ago,and read the course notes very interesting and as a few posters pointed out simple.
Are you a follower or do you use bits and pieces of the methods/ideas/maybe with that selection BTV (nicely done.)

As to the topic of margin well its probably on parr with religion/politics.

The method is in place,white board and plenty of paper to help me get to be where i need to be.As I no longer rely on money coming from shares as I am self employed (3 days A week)I am finding it difficult to focus as before.
So about this alan fella?


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satitoca
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Jaded
No not insulted by the assumptions
trying to work out if your taking the piss,
the first reply was readable/uderstandable.
But the last one you seem to have a few problems finding the write words its just dribble?
If you are on medication well hey say no more and leave it at that
I was hoping to get discussion going regarding compounding/scans and trading ideas back and forward etc But Sounds like your hung up on someone buy the name of Ingot54
And they way that post is written is not worth the time I spent trying to read it
Satitoca


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jaded
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Wednesday, May 05, 2010 - 09:57 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



satitoca,
read again your last two posts
and say it's me MOI who is a 'bit' incoherent?

I 'forgive'
many wouldn't.

Never heard of Alan Hull?

well,I'll give you an IC scan that accomodates Compounding AND 'd'Academic'...later

but realise it's only from d'goodness of me heart..


" Hear what you Say...
But see what you Do!"

Sir Zelman Cowen c 1970.

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jaded
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Friday, May 07, 2010 - 07:33 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



OK-
Wanna Double $10k in 3 months?
Well you have to get 6%/Week for 12 weeks to pretty much pull it off or Get It ON.

One can 'chart' this by a Compounding Line.A Line that sets out this and next week's even Months future Price to be "On Target" with a share towards 100% in 3 months.

Illustration-


So assumption is BUY at 50cents.
Next Week you 'need' 53 cents and so on [50/53/56/59.5/63/67/71/76....]

so a buy at 50 cents 7 weeks ago requires current price 71 with 76 by friday next week.

Noooowww please note 71 and even 76 were/was achievable 4 weeks ago.

one could adopt 'discretionary' actions based on the RATE of d'Compound Line.







" Hear what you Say...
But see what you Do!"

Sir Zelman Cowen c 1970.

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jaded
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Monday, May 17, 2010 - 09:06 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Another example of Compounding "Chances" -In Today's Conditions.

Assume one bought COK/Cockatoo at 43 cents some time in the days illustrated you may well have done it ie bought at 43 cents.


well a Go at-
10% in 7 weeks requires a weekly close or at the very least a 'hovering' around these prices

45.5/ 50 /55 cents in 3 weeks.

At 6% so as to compound double ya dosh has

45.5/48/51 cents over the 3 weeks.

COK is on target to achieve these.
It's aided by the MCC takeover seemingly falling over.
Yet this has brought COK to attention for
a]Having some of this High Grade Furnace Coal
2]Being a New Producer that's Highly Cashed Up.
It has $100 mil in the Bank.

Anyhow,I fail to see how some backtested Mechanical System can be 'geared' to identify these factors as "Causing' the Trend.
Providing Momentum to Rate of Return as outlined above to double your money in 7-12 weeks.

Happy Trading.


" Hear what you Say...
But see what you Do!"

Sir Zelman Cowen c 1970.

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