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Trading System Ideas

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zoso
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Username: zoso

Post Number: 36
Registered: 10-2003

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Wednesday, December 29, 2004 - 12:14 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



I hope you all had a nice Xmas.

I was wondering whether anyone could assist with a bit of guidance on mechanical systems.

I've been trading for about a year now with mixed success based on a longer term approach. About three months ago I decided that I wasn't at all happy with my own performance regarding discipline and execution of trades etc - usual stuff! I took a few months off to work solely on the psychological side of trading. I'm very happy with my progress and feel as though I've taken a few big steps forward and I'm now ready to get my hands dirty again.

In order to instill what I've learned at a practical level I've decided to trade a shorter timeframe so that I take more trades and get quicker exposure to the pressures and situations that I've struggled with in the past. The idea being that any psychological weaknesses will come to the fore fairly quickly and I'll be able to address them accordingly. For me, the financial results in the short term are not that important. What I'm looking to do is get through a sample size of around 30 trades without making too many trading errors.

My current problem is, having now got a handle on the ‘head stuff’ (at least in theory), I’m having a little difficulty finding a simple system to trade. Considering the number of hits you get on Google with the words ‘trading systems’ this sounds ridiculous – thing is it’s all a bit overfacing and I don’t know where to start.

Does anyone know of any interesting system sites/sources?

Has anyone had any experience trading ‘off the shelf’ systems?

I’m looking for a completely mechanical short-medium term system that generates entry signals based only on EOD data. I have no interest in trading on intraday data and screen watching. I’m not big on indicators – the system should be based around price & volume relationships and maybe a volatility indicator.
As alluded to earlier the idea is to develop method, objectivity and execution skills so I’d like to be taking trades on a fairly regular basis perhaps getting through the sample size in two months or less.
I’m unsure whether to limit my ‘index’ to the top 50, 100 or 200 aussie stocks for this exercise – anyone have any thoughts on that?

As from the end of January I’m taking six months off work in order to give my trading my undivided attention. I’m quite serious about this little educational exercise and my risk both individually and collectively (over the 30 trades) will be predetermined (excluding slippage of course). The dollar risk on each trade will be fairly small but enough to create a realistic atmosphere.

Eventually I’d like to revert back to a longer term approach but in the meantime I feel I have to commit myself to a couple of shorter term exercises to quicker develop my trading skills. I fully appreciate the argument that a trader would be more comfortable trading a system developed by him/herself but I don’t think it’s essential for this particular purpose.

Any pointers on system ideas etc would be greatly appreciated.



Many thanks,

Paul


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ingot54
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Post Number: 252
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Wednesday, December 29, 2004 - 03:28 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Zoso - Happiness and Prosperity to you for the coming year. It seems that you come up with a poser every year!

Here are some Trading System Ideas for you.

This link is a start :

http://www.incrediblecharts.com/technical/reading_the_market.htm

In here, Colin states that

Market Risk is 66%
Sector Risk is 24%
Stock Risk is 10%

In other words, Trade with the TREND first, SECTOR secondly, and worry about the right STOCK last.

The rest is entry, time in the market (timeframe), and exit.

You will need quality stocks, so the ASX 200 would be a good place to start - the Fundamentals should already be pretty good. But do not trust them - check out the debt:equity ratios etc for yourself - remember ION and SGW? I don't care who says otherwise, you need to know that the stock will be there for at least the time you will be in the market!

Volatility will be your own personal preference. For me, I prefer stocks that move up with a bit of speed, when they decide to move. I find the stocks in the price range 20c to $3 give me plenty to choose from.

I prefer the time proven MACD with histogram, as one indicator to tell me when to enter the trade. I use both daily and weekly MACD, both set at 26-12-9 periods.

I use RSI oscillator to assist with entry - (oversold). I do not use it for exit - I will explain later.

I use Bollinger bands "sometimes". I set them at 10-day periods, with 1.8 standard deviation, which suits a short-term time-frame.

Finally, you need patience. Currently Spider is using a nice little footnote, to the effect that all of our life experiences serve us badly as a preparation for trading.

I read somewhere, that if a rock is thrown at your head, your first instinct is to duck (to get out of the way). That sort of reaction has no place on the trading floor, or the screen trader's desk!

Instead, the trader mentality will be to stand and to stare down the rock, which invariably changes course, and misses the head easily. Be patient - 85% of all worry never happens, 10 % is never as bad as first thought, and 5% can easily be dealt with. (78% of statistics are made up on the spot too!)

Enough - you already said you had done a lot of psych prep.

To expand a bit on why I do not use RSI to exit - because RSI may remain in "overbought" territory for considerable periods. Instead, I use weekly/daily MACD for exit.

The Bollinger Bands are used for confirmation only, never independently as a stand alone entry/exit signal. Some people do use them this way - it's just personal preference.

In order to be able to call a system "mechanical" you must be able to trust it. In other words, stick to the plan. If the trade does not do what you expect it to do, get out fast. Why wait around just to see if you were right after all? You can not afford to play "What if ..." in trading.

Hope this helps - just my humble opinion. Oh, one more thing ... anyone can set up an indicator - "click" and you have it. Nothing wrong with that, but if you wish to build confidence, and really get to depend on your indicators, get to know the strengths and weaknesses of them.

I haven't met any other traders - but of the ones I've spoken to from this forum, I'd wager they are doing the research on all aspects of their trading. Honing skills, refining entry/exit, etc all the time. That's what it takes.

I wish to earn my living through full-time trading by the end of this year - that's a huge ask, considering I placed my first trade in March 2004.

But I tell you what, Paul, I'll make it. I give myself no option. And if I can help someone else improve along the way, so much the better.

Cheers, and Happy New Year.







The difference between a flower and a weed is a judgement

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davkell
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Wednesday, December 29, 2004 - 07:37 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Do I understand you correctly: You want to drive Formula 1 cars first to get used to the speed and excitement, and then revert back to go-carts once you gain experience from the F1's?

My first lesson in trading was that I needed to crawl before I walked. I bought into one of those (now defunct!) trading programs which was designed to trade the options market. Oh boy, I learnt some good lessons really fast, and it cost me my trading capital!!!!! You need to learn how to trade normal shares first, ideally on a medium to long term basis (3-12months) before attempting to trade the weekly swings.

I know how you feel, my current system (in development) is based on weekly data, and look like trades taking 12months to complete (albeit at 20-40% profit!). With my small trading capital and using correct money management and position sizing, I'll be lucky to have two or three positions open at any one time! Doesn't give me much to do on a daily basis does it, especially considering the $300pa data cost for software! But I've looked at trading shorter term, and the moves are just not there, especially when my brokerage equates to 6% of the trade.

My approach will have to be the longer term one, so as to make decent returns compared to the individual trade risk. Over time, hopefully as my trading capital increases, my trading level will increase too. Then I will be able to consider upgrading from the go-kart to the F1's.

Hope this gives you a little insight.


"Trade Your Way To Financial Freedom"

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perler59
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Wednesday, December 29, 2004 - 04:20 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Paul,
How about Woodies CCI system on daily charts, trading only Zero Line Reject (ZLR) with the trend? Plenty of action there :-)


http://woodiescciclub.com/Trading-Woodies-CCI-System.pdf


I can NOT control the markets, so I MUST control myself.

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chicoy
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Thursday, December 30, 2004 - 04:13 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Paul, sounds like a plan.

You stated "I fully appreciate the argument that a trader would be more comfortable trading a system developed by him/herself but I don’t think it’s essential for this particular purpose.". IMHO I think it is essential!

I too had the same idea. That if I choose a shorter timeframe, then I get to prove that I have the discipline earlier (since I executed the trades at a faster rate).

However, as part of getting the 'head stuff' correct, I believe, there is no better scenario than the real thing.

Your success as a trader is dependent on whether you executed YOUR PLAN -- as planned.

This includes your timeframes, your entries, your exits, and more importantly, your belief that the system is profitable (risk/reward comfort-level).

Perhaps I should have stated "your level of belief" above. I think that any doubts or fears you may have is compounded when it is your system... [With no one else to blame <--tongue in cheek.]

Consider (and excuse) the following analogy. I read in a book somewhere, and it helped me separate the two roles.

1. When you are creating your system, you are a NASA engineer, analysing, calculating and optimizing the system.

2. When you are executing your system, you are the space monkey, doing nothing else but following the system.

Over the course of your trading life you will need to jump between the two roles, but it needs to be clear at any point in time whether you are the engineer, or the monkey.

In saying all of that, I would like to contribute a very simple system. Choose two short-term moving averages, and blindly trade as they cross each other. Do not think about it, just do it!

Next time the ducks line up, think to yourself "I am a blind space monkey", and ruthlessly execute the trade.

Happy Trading and Happy New Year,

Chicoy


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ingot54
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Thursday, December 30, 2004 - 08:37 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Came across this one during research, but cannot recall whose it was for the credit. Sometimes I just jot things down without the reference.

BUY : When the 5 day simple Moving Average is above the 15 day simple Moving Average, and the 15 day sMA is above the 30 day sMA.

SELL : When the 5 day sMA crosses below the 15 day sMA.

That's fairly mechanical.


The difference between a flower and a weed is a judgement

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zoso
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Thursday, December 30, 2004 - 11:54 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi All,

Many thanks for your interesting comments so far.

As usual I'm struggling for time during the week but I promise I'll put together a response sometime this weekend.

Enjoy you New Year parties and think of me - I'll be working 'til 4am!


Regards,

Paul.


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victor_h
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Thursday, December 30, 2004 - 05:52 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Dear Ingot,

Dawn Bolton-Smith is credited for the 5/15/30 MA System.

Regards Victor.


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ingot54
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Friday, December 31, 2004 - 01:36 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Thank you, Victor.

Since you posted that, it prompted me to do a google search on Dawn Bolton-Smith.

The site at the top of the list is probably the best of the lot. Have added to my "library" of TA. Dawn is indeed a very talented and insightful person.

(Message edited by Ingot54 on December 31, 2004)


The difference between a flower and a weed is a judgement

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maligas
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Hi Ingot and Victor,

You can find Dawn's writings and thoughts in the "Your Trading Edge" magazine ... it can be hard to find as it's not in all newsagents but is an interesting read; it covers stocks, options, futures, forex etc.

Cheers and a happy new years,



Maligas


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stevo
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Sunday, January 02, 2005 - 08:32 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Zoso
I find it easier to trade longer term mechanical systems based on weekly charts, with decisions for the next week made over the weekend. Something like Alan Hull's approach as mentioned by Chicoy (the space monkey reference) is quite robust.

If you believe that you have a workable longer term system then why not just stick to it? Changing from a workable longer term system to a shorter term system that you haven't traded may not be a good idea.

There are different pressures with longer term systems but I believe that they are easier to trade. Shorter time frames require more time commitments than you may be able to give if you work full time.

But then I have a strong bias to longer term systems!

stevo


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ingot54
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Sunday, January 02, 2005 - 01:19 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Amazing what comes out of a question. We've not only found the author of an excellent trading approach, but also a new magazine!

Maligas - I found "Your Trading Edge" mag this morning - was rapt because there is an article about CFD's, as well as Dawn's commentary and advice. Thank you.


In some haystacks, there is no needle.

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davkell
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Sunday, January 02, 2005 - 01:42 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Haven't heard that one before hey? And I'll tell you what, it is a bugger to find at the newsagents. I'm about to subscribe to ensure I get it all the time.


"Trade Your Way To Financial Freedom"

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ingot54
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Sunday, January 02, 2005 - 03:07 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Perler - I don't know whether to thank you or what ...!!

I checked out the site you mentioned (Woodie ...etc). I got to page 17 and commenced my Sunday afternoon nap without knowing it!!

That's as far as I have advanced. The guy who wrote the .pdf needs a course in journalism or something - even Darryl Guppy does not use as many words or repetitions as this bloke. This stuff would qualify for the repetition of the year award - fair dinkum!

Anyway, silly stuff aside, I think there is something in this, but it looks like it has to be very heavily edited before I can uncover what the system is.

I have to have a break - just plain falling asleep on this one! After 17 pages, I still don't know what a CCI is, or anywhere near understanding the thing.

Please read my footnote (below in red)!


In some haystacks, there is no needle.

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perler59
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Sunday, January 02, 2005 - 10:40 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Ingot :-)

I guess each to his own. I coded a 20 period CCI in Bold White with histogram bars and line. I then stepped through some ASX200 stocks one day at a time looking for Woodie setups and trying to get a feel for the patterns. Once I started to get the idea, I was glad that I stuck with the PDF till the end. (Not all in one sitting. More like 5 days). The ZLR is by far the best setup.

I also watched and listened to over two hours of the "Plateau Trade" tutorial. The guy contradicted his own rules on most occasions and was wrong 6 times out of 6 when he was looking at the hard right edge and gave trades for the following Monday (All US stocks and daily charts). He gave one "live" trade on the 3 minute chart of something, and it was a break even. I thought I had wasted over two hours until I started looking for the actual shapes in the CCI according to his rules, on some ASX stocks. So far it appears to have worked well on AMC in the recent few months. The is risky counter trend stuff that will mostly hit your stop, but when it works, it gets you in very close to the best possible price for the move.

I'm going to attempt coding some of the setups as trading systems and do some back testing.


I can NOT control the markets, so I MUST control myself.

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zoso
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Monday, January 03, 2005 - 03:04 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



A big thanks to all the guys that participated in this thread.

Ingot – Your ambition is indeed a big ask but I know you’re gonna make it.
You said <<it>>

Yeh, apologies for the infrequency of my posts. I will commit to making more regular contributions as and from the end of January.


I had a look at Woodie’s site – interesting stuff but his timeframes are far too short for me.

Chicoy – excellent post. The reason I didn’t want to put together my own system for this exercise is that I don’t want to get unnecessarily bogged down with backtesting, optimizing and curve fitting etc. Also, if you’ve put together the system yourself and you’re not getting the desired results there’s always the temptation to blame one of your chosen indicators ie maybe the 21 EMA should’ve been used instead of 30 EMA – that would’ve solved all the problems!
It’s been proven that even systems with just a random entry, a decent exit and proper money management make money most of the time overall. As we know a very large percentage of all trading errors are caused by fear – born in the trader’s own mind – that prevent him from following his plan to the letter. It seems to me that most novice traders, after a run of inconsistent results or having suffered a big hit, bin the system that ‘caused all the grief’ and then plunge headlong into another couple of months of extensive testing in order to perfectly optimize their newly discovered set of indicators that are gonna make them winners! Mostly this seems to result in an inordinate amount of time wasted and lots of frustration. The confidence gained is usually flawed ‘cos the problems invariably come from within, not as a result of a lack of market knowledge.
What I’m trying to say, to use Chicoy’s analogy, is that I was hoping a Nasa engineer might toss up a few ideas on a fairly reliable position trading system that I – the blind space monkey – could hone my execution skills and discipline with in real time.

Davkell – I like the comparison between F1 and Go-Karts. There does seem to be quite a bias toward LT trading over ST trading on this forum. Nothing wrong with that at all and as I stated earlier I think my future ultimately lies in LT. However, I think I can learn things about myself a lot quicker trading a shorter time frame. There seems to be a mentality around that suggests that ALL inexperienced players will automatically ‘blow their brains out’ trading anything other than weekly charts. Obviously ST trading is a lot more unforgiving with regard to timing entries and exits, but apart from this is there really such a huge difference? I’d suggest that most traders’ problems, regardless of timeframe employed – stem from the usual suspects: lack of money management skills, lack of discipline, being under capitalized and a whole host of ‘mindset’ flaws.

Anyway, once again, many thanks to all of you for your input into this thread.


Wishing you all happy trading and a prosperous New Year,

Paul.


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julles
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Monday, January 03, 2005 - 10:17 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



I've enjoyed reading this thread Zoso, nothing stands against Passion and you do have it.

The question was, is there a system that is mechanical?

No, not in my experience.

Julles


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chance
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Zozo,

might be worth a look at short term system called acttrade, put out by Alan Hull.

http://www.acttrade.net/

May be what you're looking for, I'm thinking of trying it out on the next ASX share trading game.

Regards
chance


Time is the coin of your life. It is the only coin you have, and only you can determine how it will be spent.
Be careful lest you let other people spend it for you. - Carl Sandburg.

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ingot54
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Sunday, January 09, 2005 - 01:36 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Julles - A peaceful and fulfilling New Year to you and family.

Am inclined to agree that there is no purely mechanical system... but ...

Some methods of trading can APPROACH mechanical, which is not the same thing. Most of us would love a "cash cow", but that would become boring - there is no self-actualisation in picking fruit from a money tree, however lovely the prospect may seem at the outset. True satisfaction in life comes from doing the work, giving of one-self, and reaping the benefits of your efforts, helping others along too, etc.

For example, having a "set-up, trigger, entry, stop-loss, exit" might be the elements a successful trader has in mind when designing a plan that can be trusted, and if the guidelines are unshakeable, then the system may be called "mechanical".

In my experience too, if several traders operate the exact same system, (ie if they were given a piece of paper with previously unseen rules to use), I am sure the entry/exit points would differ from trader to trader.

An acquaintance of mine has developed a robot trader to trade the currency market. It is currently in the fine-tuning phase, and may be available publicly soon. This system has an "input-then-go-to-bed-and-sleep-peacefully" function!

As for me, while I love to have hard and fast guidelines, I also enjoy learning from the trades that don't follow the "rules".

Perler - progress!! I now know what a CCI is, from the "Indicator" function of IC. I guess I will go back to Woodies'system, as posted by his friend, and try to get through it!

In the meantime, can you keep us posted on any setups uncovered by the 20 period CCI please.

Chance - thanks for the www. site above. It actually shows charts very similar to the rainbow 3D Moving Averages charts, but with fewer MA's. Hmmmmm. I may go in and adjust some parameters, and try to give those Hull and Guppy charts some visibility and colour.

There are some great setups in those examples, and best of all, they are not complicated.

For me, I am searching very hard for a setup which will give me a long or short entry with CFD's. When I get this right, I will be a happy little vegemite indeed.

I posted in another thread that I do not use stop-losses. I should have posted that I do, or will be using "Guaranteed Stop Losses", particularly with leveraged trades such as CFD's.

I have seen a few gaps up and down, which have taken traders out of positions prematurely, and some which fail to get the trader out at the required position. It's GSL, or not at all.


In some haystacks, there is no needle.

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ingot54
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Hi Davkell

When re-reading the thread, it occurred to me how open you have been. Thanks. I read a lot of pain in there in the past for you.

Have you been able to identify a setup/trigger/entry/exit situation? Do you now trade on setups?

My trading is actually going back where I started from (disastrously) in March'04. This time, I am armed!

I am no day-trader, but although longer term is profitable for me, I miss the action. It is not always possible to get the quick moves - a lot of traders are on the financial "Boot Hill" trying that. So I am aiming for the 4-to-6 day moves - I am very comfortable with those.

Good trading this year - I hope you can get some really good moves.


In some haystacks, there is no needle.

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chance
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Hi Ingot,

I already did that, have a look at.....

https://forum.incrediblecharts.com/messages/8/70899.html#POST14276

Regards
chance


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ingot54
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Username: ingot54

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Registered: 05-2004

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Fantastic, Chance. Reminds me of this :

What has been is what will be,
And what has been done is what will be done;
And there is nothing new under the sun. (Eccl.1:9)

Kind of humbling for me. Funny how the wheel turns - the rainbow 3D MA charts are quick to let the eye visualize a trend, but your AEN and SES charts are truly much more significant, and accurate, in identifying the actual MA crossovers.

I found IC site in April '04, and became a member when my trial expired in May. Had I done a search (if I had known what to look for!) then, I would have been much better enlightened.




In some haystacks, there is no needle.

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chance
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Ingot,

thanks for the complements, but the credit goes to Guppy/Hull, all I did was to get the crayons out.

Funny how things work out, I didn't know you were in Tas till I read your posts about moving back to banana land.

Shame about that, would have loved to have had you round for a bbq, beer and a chat.

Never mind, will try to catch up with you one day on my travels......

Regards
chance


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kaveman
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Has anyone considered using parabolic SAR, but buy when the SAR show bullish (SAR<l)>High)
here is screenshot of my thoughts
SAR method


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chance
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Kaveman,

that gives clear unambiguous signals, should do the job for Zozo.

As a matter of interest have you backtested it, and if so, what sort of results have you got?

Regards
chance

PS Zozo if you have'nt found a simple system you're happy with yet have a look at this
http://www.justdata.com.au/Journals/AlanHull/sma.htm

(Message edited by chance on January 09, 2005)


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kaveman
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Haven't done much work on it yet, just one of those ideas that passes between the ears

Should also mention the example was a nice clean one. The system works with nice trending stocks, get stuck in a sideways or highly volatile stock and you will get creamed with whipsawing trades

(Message edited by kaveman on January 09, 2005)


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ingot54
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Have done a Guppy/Hull chart just for this thread ... actually it's just the rainbow 3D MA project with only 14 MA's instead of 66!

cba_rainbow

Seriously, if you want a mechanical system, I'm not sure if I would go past such a setup.

Have a read of this thread and you have 90% of the job done. https://forum.incrediblecharts.com/messages/7/467.html

Now scan within the top couple of sectors, and you have your stock.

Chance - dirty rotten shame about not meeting up in Tassie - a trader's life is not a particularly social one, and the opportunity has gone.

If you (or any member of IC forum) is ever in the Bundaberg area, let me buy you a lunch and a cool drink. I'd be honoured.


It's your choice : Learn - or Blame!

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chance
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Thanks mate,

should be there in a couple of years, aiming to go round the long way......

clockwise.

Should be ready for a cold one by then.

Regards chance


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tony_m
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Zoso, somebody saw what I was doing a couple of years or more back and suggested I check out Alan Hull. So I did and also toyed with all sorts of other systems but nothing came even close for me. I have been using it now for a couple of years or so.

There are some subjective elements but it is broadly mechanical and in my experience a doddle. I beef it up with Stockdoctor for risk analysis and the results have been good by any measure. Stockdoctor is not strictly necessary to get good results but is useful. My six penneth worth. Tony_M


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zoso
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Hi Tony,

Thanks for the input.

I place quite a lot of importance in volume analysis and most of the purely mechanical systems I've looked at so far don't take this into account enough for my liking.

I realise that volume analysis can be quite subjective at times and doesn't lend itself particularly well to mechanical trading. With this in mind, I've now decided to refine and continue trading my existing LT system and trust my own decisions with certain aspects of the system.

I still intend to research a few ST systems, set aside a small amount of capital and have a play with them.

I will also have a look at Hull's system properley. Out of interest roughly how many trades did Hull's system throw up last year for example?

Are you still using the TTC entry for additions?

Many thanks to everyone who offered suggestions.


Cheers,

Paul


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ingot54
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You're welcome, Paul.

Tony - I have read one of Hull's sample newsletters, and am intrigued. I like his sample setups, but it seems one needs to subscribe, or buy one of his books, to get a handle on the method. Is this so?

I am about to move to CFD's and have a good setup/trigger, but would like to explore the simplicity of Moving Average relativities more.

Are you in a position to share something on his method? I have seen enough to know I like the approach - simple, but know nothing more.


Find a good mentor, then become one.

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tony_m
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Ivan, go to Alan Hull's site and download the course notes on the last page of his website. A read of those will pretty much give you the basics of his methodology. Essentially it is like Weinstein i.e. buying dips in uptrends with a built in exit process with a stoploss indicator and a method of handling momentum loss and, most importantly, also tracking liquidity.

Makes the process of medium/long term trend trading, both long and short, very objective and simple. Alan Hull provides a weekly stock list pool, currently about 90 long and some 17 short stocks.

The long stocks are already filtered for good fundamentals and are all in various stages of identifiable stage 2 uptrends. The subjective bit is in picking the best trends and sector mix etc. Pretty easy to master using the suite of indicators.

The only time I get it wrong is when I freelance or have a brainsnap or listen or read something I should have avoided and certainly not acted upon. Hopefully I have pretty much eliminated the distractions now. There are probably people out there doing better than me, both short and longer term, but not too many I suspect. More importantly I can sleep at night and dont need to sit in front of a screen which in fact I do a bit but only by choice, not necessity.

By the way this is about portfolio performance and effective deployment of capital and not necessarily individual stocks. If you get your kicks by riding herd on a few stocks this is not for you.

Tony_M


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eblode
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Bravo Lads,
Generally excellent advice on this thread. I prefer the long trades as long as they remain profitable within a certain 60 day time frame. Alan Hull's system is very good as he has a built-in safety system in his selection of shares. I've done very well with him. However I personally must stress to newcomers to trading that STOPS must be placed on each and every trade and under no circumstances be allowed to alter. It has saved me time and again from disaster. Only recently I had a stop behind OEX when it was climbing high and suddenly reversed. I got out with a handsome profit and watched it plunge down, down, down. Keep those stops in place.
Eugenio


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ingot54
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Hmmm Tony. Thanks for the caution - I may have my face in the forum a bit too often at times, but I am still a relative newcomer.

My CFD strategy is NOT to leverage to the max just because it is possible to do it. Greed with CFD's, coupled with impatience must only be destructive.

I am planning to take roughly double the size of my normal positions as CFD's, initially, until I settle down with them, and trust my judgement as well as I do with Comsec trades. It's like learning to trade all over again, and the psychological lessons have to be learned.

As I posted elsewhere, trading a $10,000 account is streets apart from trading a $100,000 account, even though the equities/entries are identical. One has to know oneself in those situations.

While I anticipate slightly shorter trading times, I would be foolish to exit a trend simply because $x profit has arrived. I have not forgotten that the reason my trading turned around was because I learned to ride the trend, and not be frightened out of a trade by retracements. That was my biggest single lesson to date.

My exits will depend on :

1. TREND. Because of the interest payable on CFD positions, I will exit any position that appears to be bogging down as a range trade ie strong trend paused/gone. CFD traders need to be astute book-keepers.

2. GSLO triggered.

3. Better opportunities to use capital elsewhere.

4. Have not determined other reasons yet, but I know there will be some.

Am off to read the pages you recommended - school's always in when you're trading!

Thank you for help.


Find a good mentor, then become one.

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tony_m
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Zoso, re you last post. I have played with TTC (and lots of others)and did use it occasionally for pyramiding although it is only a minor sideline and I use the Alan Hull process anyway.

Re your questions about 'throwing up trades'. It isn't easy to answer because as a subscriber I get access to the weekly list of stocks from which I choose the best candidates in my opinion.

This choice is based on the Hull process and the subjective analysis of the trend plus a more detailed look at the fundamentals, particularly earnings growth and whether the stock looks to be under or over valued and the quality of the company. I am extremely picky about the stocks I choose for my 12 or so stock portfolio.

I know there will be comments about 'funnymentalists' and 'it is all in the charts' but what I am about is risk management as well as good returns.

I simply wont buy stocks just because they are in a solid uptrend if the basics are not right. i.e. I dont want a bar of stocks which are just propped up by sentiment and there are a lot of those right now. It isn't necessary because there are plenty of stocks in powerful uptrends with solid price growth fundamental backing and I know where I would rather be when the music stops.

Tony_M


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holycow
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Here's 5 stars for a great system and sound reasoning!

Cheers.


HC

"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"

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sumamura
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can u plot rainbow 3D MA with metastock ? --- sumamura


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holycow
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SM,

Not sure if you are asking me? Anyway, I think it can but I won't be trying it anyhow. If I may, I find dealing with 3 MA's is much easier than dealing with many. My holy grail is one that is simple and consistent - I am still searching.

Cheers.


HC

"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"

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perler59
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I back tested the Dawn Bolton-Smith 5/15/30 MA System over the ASX300 from 01/01/04 to 01/01/05 and the results were horrible. (Don't ask what program) :-)

I then started playing around (as you do) and ended up with the following,
which gives $33,000 profit on $100,000 equity using a max of 10% of equity per trade. This is still not very good.

Capital = 100000; // IMPORTANT: Set it also in the Settings: Initial Equity
PositionSize = -10; //Optimize("EE",-100,-100,-5,5); // % of available equity
RoundLotSize = 1; // 1 share
TickSize = 0.01; // 1 cent

Turnover = MA(C,20) * MA(V,20); // Average dollars per day in last month
Liquidity = Ref(Turnover,-1) > 200000; // Was yesterday's avg daily turnover > $$ ?

WeeklyTrend = Ref(EMA(C,150),0) - Ref(EMA(C,150),-4); // +'ve == Up trend
WeeklyTrendUp = WeeklyTrend > 0;
WeeklyTrendDn = WeeklyTrend < 0;

DailyTrend = Ref(MA(C,60),0) - Ref(MA(C,60),-1); // +'ve == Up trend
DailyTrendUp = DailyTrend > 0;
DailyTrendDn = DailyTrend < 0;

// MA System.
Buy = Liquidity AND C > MA(C,21) AND DailyTrendUp AND WeeklyTrendUp;
Sell = C < MA(C,70);
Short = 0;//Liquidity AND C < MA(C,21) AND WeeklyTrendDn;
Cover = C > MA(C,21);

// Max Loss stop
ApplyStop(stopTypeLoss,stopModePercent,
10, // Percent %
//Optimize( "SL", 5.5, 0.05, 7, 0.05 ),
1,
False,0);

// Chandelier exit
Cm = 3; //Optimize("Cm",2.5,1,5,0.1);
ApplyStop(stopTypeTrailing, stopModePoint,
IIf((Cm * ATR(2))>(Cm * ATR(20)),Cm * ATR(2),Cm * ATR(20)),
1,
True,0);


I can NOT control the markets, so I MUST control myself.

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sangfroid
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Hi there you wonderful people!

Tony, you say:

Ivan, go to Alan Hull's site and download the course notes on the last page of his website. A read of those will pretty much give you the basics of his methodology. Essentially it is like Weinstein i.e. buying dips in uptrends with a built in exit process with a stoploss indicator and a method of handling momentum loss and, most importantly, also tracking liquidity.

Exactly what is the URL for his site? I can't seem to find anything but references to Alan Hull by Googling(*) for it. If you could post up Alan Hull's site address, I'd really appreciate it. Thanks and many happy returns to you all!

Sam.

(*) I think the gerundive, and hence the verb "to Google", has entered the English language by now; I apologise to the purists if it hasn't.


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tony_m
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Sangfroid,
http://www.alanhull.com/download/Active_Investing_0312_com.pdf

http://members.ozemail.com.au/~adhull/download/Sample_Newsletter_0302_com1.pdf

regards Tony_M


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ingot54
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Sam, there are few people who know what a "gerund" is today!

Many youth major in "x-boxing" or "napstering" to the neglect of their English "learn-ing". (Tongue firmly in cheek!)




Find a good mentor, then become one.

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sangfroid
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tony_m, ingot54 - your posts are more valuable than pure, evaporation-grade platinum by a long-stretch! (there's a pun in there somewhere, but it is unintentional) I hope you never tire of sharing your extraordinary knowledge with us, and I hope you continue succeeding in your trading!(1)

Thank you to the two of you, and to all you other contributors to this forum. All the best!

Sam.

(1) OK, so I'm a pedant, but isn't the verbal noun "succeeding", as used above, expressing a generalised or uncompleted action and is hence the gerund of the verb "to succeed"? On the other hand, "trading" is a bare infinitive which may in fact be a participle verb, so I probably was wrong in classifying "Googling" in my previous post as a gerundive, since it resembles the latter. But why am I so hung up about grammar when I have so much to learn about TA?


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mr_bean
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Perler59, did you get a chance to backtest Woodies?

I'm working through the very repetitive PDF, will do some paper trading when I'm done.


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perler59
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Hi Mr_Bean :-) I made an attempt but gave up on trying to teach the program how to recognise the patterns. I have done some manual testing and discovered that the CCI-20 works well on some shares (EG AMC, BSL). I've also noticed that the plateau (counter trend) trade often gives two early false signals followed by a third one which is often a beauty. EG Shorting COH: 08/06/04, bad, 15/06/04, bad, 24/06/04, good, 09/07/04, excellent.


I can NOT control the markets, so I MUST control myself.

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pasminco
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Perler, I have Incredible charts and Siera but I can't seem to get the charts set-up correctly for Woodies CCI.

We need CCI 14 and CCI 6, as well as the bars which indicate trend (6 in a row defines the trend).

Can anyone advise how to set-up the chart correctly?

Thanks!


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philr
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From what I read woodies is a day trading system I think, I don't think you will get that with incredible charts.

What are the 14 and 6 are they the overbought levels if so you can adjust them on incredible charts if you want to run the system on a daily basis maybe.

I don't know of any software that would run on the australian stock exchange for woodies.


Phil

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pasminco
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Thanks Phil, the CCI 14 and 6 (turbo CCI) are used for some of the patterns and for exiting. For example if you are in a trade and it's going your way, you might exit when the CCI 6 crosses over the CCI 14.

The overbought and oversold levels are usually set to at least 100, often 150 or 200.

With Incredible I can only get one CCI at a time, can't get the two happening simultaneously on the same indicator chart. I've been hunting around the net for free trials but haven't found one that can do what I need, getting ticked off.


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perler59
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Hi Pasminco.

Woodies system can be used for swing trading of shares (say 3 to 7 days) using the 20 day CCI.

Here's the formula I use to draw the CCI. I'm not allowed to say here what program it is, but you can mail me if you can't work it out :-)

Plot(CCI(20),"CCI",colorLightGrey,6);
Plot(CCI(20),"CCI-20",colorWhite,styleThick);
Plot(CCI(13),"tCCI-13",colorRed,styleLine);
Plot(0,"",colorYellow,styleDots);
Plot(100,"",colorLightGrey,styleDots);
Plot(-100,"",colorLightGrey,styleDots);
Plot(200,"",colorLightGrey,styleDots);
Plot(-200,"",colorLightGrey,styleDots);

AMC


I can NOT control the markets, so I MUST control myself.

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pasminco
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Hi Mr_Bean I made an attempt but gave up on trying to teach the program how to recognise the patterns. I have done some manual testing and discovered that the CCI-20 works well on some shares (EG AMC, BSL). I've also noticed that the plateau (counter trend) trade often gives two early false signals followed by a third one which is often a beauty. EG Shorting COH: 08/06/04, bad, 15/06/04, bad, 24/06/04, good, 09/07/04, excellent.

I've just been looking at the trades you mentioned above. By "plateau" do you mean HFE trade? If so I can't see why some of those trades were bad, it seems your entries were a bit off. I'd like to comment in more detail after you reply to this. BTW, WCCI seems to work really well on IBM, but not so well on a few of the Aussies stocks I've looked at.}


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perler59
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Hi Pasminco.

A plateau trade, like the HFE, is a high risk and high reward counter trend trade. You enter after the CCI has climbed a mountain and has formed a plateau (run out of momentum), expecting the market to reverse in the next bar or two. The plateau does not have to be horizontal. It can slope in either direction and can even be a little pointy in an arrow head shape.


The successful traders are the ones who's tolerance for their own bad habits, runs out before their money.

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pasminco
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Perler, just looking a bit more closely at those trades. This is how I see it (I'm talking about HFE trades on COH):

8-6-04: CCI (20-day) peaked at 245 on the 3rd of June. The entry would be 7th June on the open (assuming one has a day job, comes home checks the market and sets order for next day). Entry price of $21.30. Exit on the open of 11th of June due to the CCI pointing up at the end of the previous day. Exit price $21.55. A break-even trade almost.

15-06-04: No HFE there at all.

24-6-04: The next HFE after 3-6-04 was actually on 23rd of June, peaked at 240. Enter 25th June on open at $23.20. Exit 6th July at $23.12 on open as CCI pointing up on previous close. Almost break-even again.

9-7-04: Perhaps you mean 16th July? Perhaps I've got the wrong stock code...anyway, it's all fun. 16th July CCI drops to -220, Enter 20th July on open at $21.65, exit Aug 5th (CCI went flat before but there was a triple bottom there at $21.40, so I guess I'm cheating on this trade) at $22.64. Good trade at last.

There are many more HFEs there of course. The document says the HFE trades have about a 50% chance of a profit, but the profits are much bigger than the losses. A quick scan of COH with the naked eye confirms this.

I'll keep studying the WCCI thing until I fully understand it, so far I think it can be a profitable system, but will take a lot of study, practice and pain.


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perler59
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Pasminco.

The plateau trade in COH on 9/7/04 is shown by the white vertical line. In this case both the 13 period and 20 period CCI's are saying "Go Short" at the same time.

COH_CCI


The successful traders are the ones who's tolerance for their own bad habits, runs out before their money.

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pasminco
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That also conforms to the Ghost trade pattern, HTLB pattern and even a Vegas trade pattern. It also has some divergence there as well! What more could you ask for? Thanks for putting that up, if you see any more of those on any market please let me know!


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pasminco
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Perler, the Plateau trade isn't mentioned in the main tecahing document, but I checked at the WCCI site. Can you tell me if I've got this right or not: I'm looking at the COH chart you threw up there. I can see these plateau trades assuming you enter the day after the CCI confirms the plateau.

May 14 - short
June 21 - long
July 12 - short
Aug 16 - long


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perler59
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Hi Pasminco :-)
The advice I heard (from an archived interactive training session on Woodies site) was to enter within 10 minutes of the close of trading on the day that confirms the entry.

14th May - short
18th June - long
9th July - short
13th Aug - long

Notice that 19th Aug is the best entry for that move and its also the 3rd pause in downward momentum for the move. There is something special about the 3rd pause.. Check it out :-)


The successful traders are the ones who's tolerance for their own bad habits, runs out before their money.

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pasminco
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OK, thanks Steve. I see how it works now, basically.

That third pause is similar concept to the third wave of five in an Elliot wave pattern,is it not? Gann says that if a top later becomes a double top then a triple top it weakens the resistance enough to let the bulls poke through on the fourth go.

I'll keep it in mind as I paper trade, cheers mate .


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smallworld
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Zoro,
Have you found a good mechanical system that you can enlighten us about?
sw


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zoso
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Hi Smallworld,

No, I didn't come across anything completely mechanical that suited my personality.

I also like 'volume analysis' which can be difficult to incorporate into a mechanical system.

Anyway, long story short, I decided to refine my existing 'medium-long term' system and trade it.

Ironically, because of recent market weakness, opportunities are coming thick and fast on the short side. Therefore I'm getting the type of exposure - with my LT system - that I was hoping to get trading an ST system.

I'm fairly happy with both my plan and my personal performance right now.

Cheers,

Paul.


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smallworld
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Hi Zoro,
Is your LT system mechanical or discretionary? While mechanical will have the exact statistical information about the system through backtesting. Discretionary system will rely on experience. I'm interested in your thoughts on your pros and cons on mechanical vs discretionary trading, and what were you looking for when you were searching for a mechanical system that you didnt expect to find in your LT system. And if you're not trading a completely mechanical system at the moment, what do you do as a work around. Just to make sure we have the same meaning about mechanical and discretionary systems. Mechanical system is one whose rules can be completely represented in software, while discretionary systems also has rules, they are used by the trader who will need to exercise judgement and the apply the rules.
good trading.

(Message edited by smallworld on April 26, 2005)


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julles
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Fortune, beholds us, neither here nor there, not with or with held, neither is it when or won't, it is not given or taken, it is a master in disguise! Fortune is intuitive of the self, one will make of it, what ones capable of.

Written by Julles :-)

Great fortune bestows us when we can see


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zoso
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Hi SM,

By your definition I guess you’d have to say that my system is a discretionary one ie it could not be completely represented in software.
90% of it is fairly mechanical – the set ups, money management, stop loss exits & profit exits.
Really the only thing that is discretionary is the entry trigger. Once I’m happy with a set up I’ll then identify a suitable stop loss point. From this point I will calculate my maximum entry price – always 7% from SL. 7% is the maximum risk I’ll take on any trade.
Now that I have my 7% window I’ll use my judgement to make an entry within that window. Often my entries are made 2-5% away from the SL. It depends on how well I believe I’m reading the market as to how aggressive/conservative I am with my entry.
Although the ‘set up’ (ie the chart patterns & price action) has to comply to certain ‘mechanical’ criteria, even when it does comply it may be rejected if I’m not happy with the volume patterns. Again, this is largely subjective.
So in summary…….yes, in part my system is discretionary but within a larger framework that is basically mechanical.
Apologies if that sounds contradictory but I know what I mean and I guess that’s all that matters.
Mechanical v Discretionary? Suppose it depends on the individual. I’d be more inclined to use a purely mechanical system if I was trading a much shorter timeframe. With my long term system I’m comfortable shouldering a little discretion in amongst some very rigid rules – I believe I have the discipline and self trust to operate this way. Besides, it’s nice to congratulate yourself every now and again when you make a good call.


Cheers,

Paul.


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kaveman
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I know this may sound radical , but has anyone tried just looking at a chart, and if the trend is rising - buy, if it looks like falling - sell


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hilarius
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Good Evening

In addition to Kaveman's excellent advice this may also sound radical :-

Has anyone tried just looking at a company's profit trend over several years and future prospects, and if the trend is rising - buy, or if it looks like falling - sell?

Still more radical ... how about acting when only the chart and fundamentals both point in the same direction?

The three options are :-

(1) Chart only
(2) Fundamentals only
(3) Both the above together

With Best Wishes

Hilarius


I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

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davkell
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I think I've stated this before: Shouldn't we just buy before it goes up, and sell before it goes down?

Easy!


"Trade Your Way To Financial Freedom"

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hilarius
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Hi Davkell

I like the neat touch of irony in your message :-)

Well up to the best hilarious standards set at the Friary!

However, I suspect that we all find a little prior evidence helpful :-)

With Best Wishes

Hilarius


I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

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captain_chaza
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Ahoy Fr Hilarius

“No man can serve two masters,” wrote Saint Matthew.

There are two basic approaches for deciding the future direction a sailing ship of any size and design might move.

The fundamentalist approach is faced with a massive information-gathering problem. Every fact relevant to the craft must be known and weighted according to its importance and its price equation. The skipper here assumes his own interpretations and his known facts are better than average.

He will analyze all the facets of world politics and its effects on the global economic community on a regular basis. He will study each member of the global exchange from currencies and interest rates to commodities and raw materials, to the latest developments in design technologies in the multitude areas of human activity.

He then turns his head to the economic statistics price/earning ratios, dividend yields, company reports on as many ships as he can mentally digest and consume as much written matter time allows. This is truly an awesome task for any skipper even those with a crew of skilled academics on each floor of a high-rise office building.

Unfortunately for the fundamentalist by the time he receives most of his information and statistics it is hopelessly out of date. By the time he evaluates and mixes up his recipe for a rational decision the moon has moved the tides. He often complains he is living in an irrational world and that the world has just gone temporally mad. Naturally, “She’ll be right in the long term,” he always says.

How often does a ship move in the opposite direction immediately after a good or bad report? Since information is never leaked in this fairest of all sports with its strong rules of fair disclosure, he will often claim an event has already been factored into the equation by the gamblers. How often does he cling to the skimpiest of fundamental good news as the price descends deeper and deeper south?

Could this be because the reporting season only reports on the good old days with 1 and 2 month old figures??

I just love it it they way they can be so transparent and report 1 month and 2 month old figures as if they were only compiled yesterday

Maybe they just don't have a simple adding machine
OR their Spin doctors need more time to put a spin on things
OR they just simply need more time to re-evalute thier positions for family friends and white knights

An ORDERLY approach always seems to be the better way than the chaotic approach of panic

Because this has happened so often in the past it has even turned some fundamentalist heads inside out and they have developed a reverse fundamental approach.

This down-under, upside-down fundamentalist or contrarian viewpoint has surprising much to offer. Here the skipper has acknowledged the fact that punching the latest fundamentals into his computer will result in garbage.

He has accepted the fact that everything has been leaked and that it is not a fair game at all, but All-Out War.

Also, in view of his past experiences he has decided that he hasn’t been as close to the good information chain link as he would have liked and refuses to be fair game in the future.

The Technical believes that no fundamental fact whatsoever matters unless the masses have this shared psychology and provides the only mechanism to measure this irrational and emotional component.

Any experienced sea campaigner knows and the novice sea-scout will soon discover how deeply the counter productive aspects of tension, anticipation and anxiety alter the way a skipper sails the seas.
Usually directly proportional to the funds committed.

The technical believes the oceans are extremely efficient with its global sharing of information and regularly observes the actions of others, not their talk or some sports journalist promoted to follow the Big Page.


The technical can put objectivity at the helm and control the nemesis of all sailors at sea on the Global Exchange namely, emotion and rationale.

They provide the mechanism to set entry and exit points, set risk/reward ratios and even foster a safety and risk management approach to sailing in all types of sea and weather conditions.


Technical allows the skipper to step back and gain a better insight and perspective of the Global Exchange and carry out numerous ship surveys. A chart is worth more than a thousand words.

The technical viewpoint encompasses every participant’s knowledge and beliefs about the future direction a craft may head next. It takes into account all the known facts as well as the human interpretation of those facts.

More importantly it also takes into account fundamental news not yet known to the general public and is right up to date.

Lately, the fundamental academic with the I know all attitude who has ridiculed and under estimated his technical opponent for so many years, now believes he has room on board for some technical.

Unfortunately, as more and more skippers sail on technical, more ships are now moving accordingly, there is no room onboard for any fundamentalist with his long term excuse and his minuscule amount of up to date facts.

He is in fact a MOST dangerous dinosaur to have onboard.

He must be avoided at all costs and only regarded as fair game.

Whether he is a bull or a bear he cannot change his spots and will always cloud a skipper’s judgment and coarse many costly delays.

Sailing in this modern era is ALL about the

Technical verses Technical.

Salute and Gods' speed
Captain Chaza
capn

“No man can serve two masters,”
wrote Saint Matthew.1st century AD


"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.

"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate."
Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893

"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897





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andrewk
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Dear Davkell,
Hilarius and Captain Chaza's methods both sound much too difficult. Can I please borrow your time machine?

Thanks in advance,
Andrew


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davkell
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No probs. I've bottled it up into a software system, it only sells for $4995.

LOL!


"Trade Your Way To Financial Freedom"

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hilarius
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Dear Captain Chazza

Fundamental data can be as successfully charted as tea leaves or share price dots

Other fundamental facts of a more "one off" non-trending nature stand out like dogs (expletive deleted)

An instance ... 50 ships parked off Gladstone waiting to export coal ... the port facility owned by PIF was keen to increase its loading capacity by 50%

Cunningly the Queensland Premier said he wasn't going to put tax-payers money into a trading company ... actually he didn't need to ... but it was announced he had written to the Regularity Authority encouraging them to consider a more export friendly loading fee

Bingo ... they did and PIF announced the environment is now right to increase capcity

Another export bottleneck will get to be removed and the PIF share chart confirms the worth of an earlier look at this fundamental blockage which had to be relieved sooner or later

It has happened sooner and your frustrated coal barge captains will soon get their coal loaded faster

A win win all round ... including a win for the combined value of good looking fundamentals and good looking charts

What could be easier?

[Declaration of interest ... I hold PIF and have done since $1.22 ... with some short term ins and outs ... fundamentalists can use technical charts as well!]

With Best Wishes

Hilarius


I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

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bm_
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hi there,

are there any people currently using any of alan hull's systems and or newsletters? the last posts for similar stuff seem to be from '05 or before. just wondering if his systems (active invest, breakout trader and active trader) are still valid in the current market environment. his breakout system appears to have been developed recently and uses a medium term TF. has anyone tried it yet?

also, is 20-25k enough to start trading with in the current market environment? i noticed 'mum' had a drawdown issue using the actvest system becuase of using 10k..

best wishes to all.


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sway
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bm

Welcome to the forum. Looks like everyone still too busy digesting chrissy pud to answer. I have Alan Hull's book and use bits of his strategy (along with Guppy, Nicholson and Weinstein). There are those who say this old fashioned TA is a waste of time, but some simple trend following would have worked nicely with your $20-25k over the past 18 months. Never mind that the ASX200 has gone sideways during this time. There are plenty of great opportunities in the ASX200, and the basic Hull principles would have kept you out of TLS, QBE, the big banks, QAN etc. In my opinion, simple TA combined with sensible position sizing and risk control can be profitable. Unless you have some experience, I would avoid the temptation of using leverage with your 25k.

Finally, the IC forum search function is a bit arcane, but with perseverance you should be able to find more on the Hull system. A few years ago I recall posting a chart which allowed you to derive the ROAR from ROC which is available in IC. Also check out the Snifter system if you can find it.

Don't hesitate to ask further questions. There are plenty of helpful contributors here.

Cheers
Sway







This is not a recommendation or advice. As they say .... DYOR.

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bm_
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would anyone be willing to share how they deal with stop losses using the Active Investor strategy with Alan Hull? the notes indicate that a 2% position size is used per trade and this is set using the lower deviation as a stop loss. do people place a fixed stop loss at this point and amend it periodically? the notes say that if the global markets are uncertain that you sell if the daily price closes below the lower deviation and that if global markets are more stable to sell only if the weekly price closes below the lower deviation point.

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