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ingot54
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Username: ingot54

Post Number: 1722
Registered: 05-2004

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Friday, March 09, 2007 - 09:20 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Economic News

USD
After a relatively stable week regarding price movement, we are expecting the biggest news event of the week - The Nonfarm Payrolls.

Although its reputation as the biggest market shaker has declined lately, very interesting movement can be expected today, mostly because uncertainty is the name of the game here. This past week, traders saw the negative release of the ADP index, where its correlation with the NFP is ever questioned.

This time around, traders are proving that they disagree with correlation theories. Although the ADP came in very week at 57K, the market didn't show much excitement nor did it show any downward movement to the USD.

The Jobless Claims was also accepted with certain apathy after coming in at 328K. The estimates of the 80 economists surveyed by Bloomberg range from 38k to 165k with a median of 95k and an average of 98k.

Such a wide range of forecasts indicates that even the experts don't really know what to expect.

What could be said is that a reading below 80K would be quite devastating for the USD and one above 110K would keep it on stable ground.

It is not a secret that the common notion is slightly pessimistic and as it appears on paper traders will in fact be expecting bad results.

It is also pretty clear that today's report will generate massive volatility, and probably deliver the USD's next move.

EUR
Although the ECB raised the European Rates by 0.25 to 3.75%, the move was very much expected and created little price movement in the European markets.

What did cause the market to react was the speech made by ECB President Trichet all throughout the afternoon.

Trichet calmed down his “Hawkish” notion on the economy and indicated that interest rates are currently “moderate” rather than “low” and confirmed that the word “vigilance” will not be used in his prepared statement.

The shift in tone is likely in response to the recent volatility in the global equity markets as well as their outlook for softer inflation in the next Four months.

The Bank of England kept the British interest rates unchanged at 5.25. That was also in line with expectations and no major moves were seen.

Traders will be waiting for the minutes to get the bank's monetary policy, since it does not publish it when rates remain unchanged.

No major European news is expected today, as most of today's action will come from the US market, and the NFP release.

JPY
The uncertainty around the Japanese markets create an almost impossible trading behavior for the currency that was once very monotone.

The USD/JPY is going through extremely choppy sessions, and we suddenly see 200 pips movements in a very short period of time.

Although no major news was released in the Japanese market yesterday, we saw an abnormal movement with no valid explanation as to what caused it where the marker increased from 116.00 to 117.50.

As for now the near future of the Yen is quite unclear, and until some general direction will appear, JPY trading is recommended only for the brave hearted.



Technical News

EUR/USD
The pair is consolidating in the 1.3150 zone. Daily signals are mixed with a slight bullish indication.

The hourlies are touching overbought territory. It could be wise to stay out of the market until a clearer direction will be known.

GBP/USD
The pair has crashed more than 250 pips in the last three days, and is now signaling a bounce back.

The pair now floats around 1.9300, and it could be wise to look for dips, and establish long positions.

USD/JPY
The daily charts are extremely bullish, as the pair started correcting massively from the 115.00 support.

The hourlies are quickly unwinding from overbought levels and indicating that longs are most probably the right way to go.

USD/CHF
Daily studies are moderately bullish, and are pointing to the 1.2350 zone. The notion is supported by bullish hourlies which indicate that the correction up still has some steam in it.

The Wild Card

AUD/USD
A very clear channel has been created on the 4 hour chart, allowing forex traders the opportunity to jump into the local uptrend until the pair reaches the upper levels of the channel.

Although the general direction of the channel is down, this is a perfect opportunity for swing traders to take 40-60 pips in a mid range trade.

Chart is the AUDUSD




Keep Smiling - Don't look back

Trading style: Chartist Artist _ Breakouts and Shakeouts.

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zorba
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Username: zorba

Post Number: 144
Registered: 12-2003

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Friday, March 09, 2007 - 09:34 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Ingot
I've read several times that 'big news' is coming tonight. You've outlined the issues.
What are the expectant flow-ons for us, if any?
TIA







As the Irishman said, 'Anyone who's not confused here doesn't really understand what's going on'.

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ingot54
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Post Number: 1723
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Friday, March 09, 2007 - 10:15 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Zorba - I am a "johnny-come-lately" to FX issues, and am just now going through the basics myself.

I understand that the Non Farm Payroll figures (ie the jobs growth off-farm) are a bit like our employment figures here, but for some reason it is seen as a measure of future prosperity in the USA - more so than here.

In AUS we tend to link Employment data with Inflation etc.

If the NFP is poor, I expect most currencies to appreciate against the USD.

It is never that simple - eg there are some countries with different weightings/exposure to the US economy, and this will have a much lesser/greater impact on their currencies.

This time around it is not as clear as previously, and opinion seems divided. Therefore it is hard to take a pre-emptive position.

This time I think it is a bit of a gamble.

I have a short on USDJPY (demo a/c only at this stage) and a long on the AUDUSD and EURUSD.

A lot of folks use NEWS as opportunity, but the FX markets are just a big bucket with one million sharks in it, all trying to keep wet. Someone is going to get bumped out of the pool, and it is usually a smaller played!

Beware the feint and jab! The markets can take off in a hurry, but quickly reverse, taking out all the suckers. At this stage I usually take positions over 3-4 days and employ stops to take me out (+ trailing stops) if the positions reverse while I am not screen watching.

Kind regards

Ingot


Keep Smiling - Don't look back

Trading style: Chartist Artist _ Breakouts and Shakeouts.

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zorba
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Post Number: 145
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Friday, March 09, 2007 - 10:25 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



G'day Ingot

Thanks for the really quick reply.
I'm not into FX but was wanting to know how it (the US news) would interplay with our share market. I trade (nearly wholly) in miners. Not advanced enough to trade in actual metal (ingots et al).
Again, thanks for your insight.


As the Irishman said, 'Anyone who's not confused here doesn't really understand what's going on'.

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ingot54
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Post Number: 1726
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Monday, March 12, 2007 - 06:12 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Economic News

USD

Last week ended with a small surprise as the Nonfarm Payroll came in at 97K. Although being a relatively low number, the expectations were much lower, creating a positive rally for the USD.

The relatively strong number was supported by positive average hourly earnings which increased by a more than expected 0.4%.

The EUR/USD ended the week 150 pips lower at 1.3090. This Nonfarm Payrolls proved once again that the actual numbers are not those that matter, but the expectations are far more important in determining the final outcome of price changes.

It looks as if this time the low ADP had an important role in setting the low expectations for the following NFP, as its importance, and correlation with the NFP are commonly argued in many economic circles.

Today, there is no news expected to come from the US, as the market will be waiting for tomorrow, when the US Retail Sales is expected to come in stronger than last month's 0.0%, at 0.4%.

Later on this week the US Current Account is expect to be released and the Trade Balance is widely expected to narrow a bit, which together with a strong Retail Sales might spur further positive energy to the Greenback.

As a whole, no big surprises are expected to shake the US markets this week, and it might be a good week to range trade.

EUR

Last week was an important one for the Euro-Zone monetary policy, as it saw the hike in the European interest rate to 3.75, topped by the Bank of England's decision to keep the rates unchanged at 5.25%.

The uncertainty regarding the ECB's future policy caused most of the European currencies to depreciate across the board, and the culmination came in the form of a stronger then expected NFP in the US market, that sent the EUR and the GBP further down.

As for today the biggest news expected to come from the European market is the GBP Producer Price Index for the month of January, which is expected to come in a bit lower than last's month's 0.3%, at 0.2%.

If the PPI will come in line with expectations, no major volatility is expected, although traders will scrutinize the GBP around the publication time (9:30 GMT).

JPY

The behavior of the JPY last week persuaded many traders to jump back into the carry trades, after JPY weakness didn't seem to be stopping.

We saw big focus on the Japanese market, last week as it delivered the most consistent and stable trend, that could be a strong signal the we will continue to see the JPY going in the direction we were so used to seeing it - Down!.

Looking ahead, we are expecting second quarter GDP, current account, Domestic CGPI, consumer confidence, industrial production and leading indicators this week.

The Japanese economic calendar is busy which suggests that the market may continue to focus on the Yen.

Technical News

EUR/USD
The pair closed last week's session at 1.3090 and is now testing 1.3120. It looks as if last week's range trading will continue this week, as the dailies and hourlies are at neutral levels.

The recommended range would be 1.3060/1.3200 with strong attention on the unwinding of the hourlies as an entry and exit signals.

GBP/USD

It was a choppy session for the pair last week, with a clear bearish movement. The pair started this morning with a small increase, as the hourlies are touching overbought territories.

The daily charts are mildly bullish, indicating that buying on dips might be preferable today.

USD/JPY

The pair is testing the 118.40 levels at the end of the Asian session. The daily charts are extremely bullish with plenty of room to extend, as the hourlies are reaching overbought levels.

The ongoing direction for the pair continues to up, with a local target price of 119.50.

USD/CHF

After it soared over 200 pips last week, the pair is consolidating around 1.2340. The daily studies are very bullish, as the hourlies are approaching overbought levels.

The overall notion for the pair is up, so a preferable strategy might be buying on dips.

The Wild Card


GBP/JPY

A very stable and consistent uptrend is forming on the 1 hour charts, giving forex traders the opportunity to jump in to the trend when it still has plenty of steam in it.

The current target price is 231.00, which means that the profit potential might be more than 150 pips.


Keep Smiling - Don't look back

Trading style: Chartist Artist _ Breakouts and Shakeouts.

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ingot54
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Username: ingot54

Post Number: 1727
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Tuesday, March 13, 2007 - 05:00 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



I have permission from www.sonray.com.au to use this material. It is not intended for use as advice - you must do your own research and consult your own advisor prior to making investment decisions. This is intended for information and discussion purposes only.
_____________________

The USD opens a touch softer on the back of
Hawkish comments from the ECB’s Liebscher
more bad news for US Sub Prime lenders
talk of Halliburton’s relocation to Dubai
US Retail Sales, as a result the USD has been unable to capitalise on last Friday’s relatively strong Non-Farm payrolls number.

Shares of New Century Financial were suspended for trading this morning, raising concerns that the company may have no choice but to file for bankruptcy. The problem in the sub-prime lending sector is worsening and run the risk of impacting the housing market as a whole.

Mortgage lenders are expected to tighten their lending rules, regardless of whether they lend to the sub-prime market or not. With housing inventory at a 3 month high, prices could soon be affected as well.

In addition to New Century Financial, Halliburton also announced that it will be moving its corporate headquarters from Houston to Dubai. Their move is a no-win situation for the US economy and US dollar.

The biggest mover was sterling/yen falling three big figures and underlines the risk of being tied up in the yen carry trade, the carry trade has now become a relatively high volatile fx risk.

Growing nervousness about a possible confrontation between the United States and Iran is adding to dollar bearishness.

While investors were focused on the global risk environment in the last few weeks, a bunch of U.S. economic data due this week should remind investors that fundamentals are just as important as interest rate differentials.

Investors will be looking at U.S. retail sales and inflation data, which, if significantly outside of expectations, could coax the market back to looking at economic growth prospects.

However expectations are for weaker US retail sales tomorrow.

February was one of the coldest months on record and Wal-Mart has already missed its sales forecasts as a result.

Retail sales should set the tone for the first part of the week until Thursday when we have producer prices, net foreign purchases of US Securities and the Philadelphia Fed index on the docket.

The German ZEW survey of analyst sentiment is due for release tonight along with Eurozone industrial production.

Australian data was mixed yesterday, Home loans were weaker than expected but investment lending and the Manpower Employment survey were stronger.

Never-the-less the Australian, New Zealand and Canadian dollars are all stronger today despite the fact that gold prices are flat and oil prices are lower.

U.S. stocks extended a week of gains, buoyed by $31.7 billion of acquisitions, falling oil prices and an analyst's prediction that demand for mobile-phone chips will grow.

The Dow industrials rose 42.30, or 0.3 percent, to 12,318.62

Copper prices rose to a two-week high in New York after demand surged in China, the world's biggest consumer of the metal used in pipes and wires.

Our strategy in the Aud for yesterday was stopped out for a 20 point loss
and
our strategy to establish long AUD at .7790 missed out with a low of only .7803.

Our strategy for today is to
look to establish long AUD at .7845
stops should be placed just under .7795
50% profits should be placed at .7885
with stops raised to entry at this point
the balance of profits should be placed at .7905.

The Eur rallied from the 1.3110 level we were looking to sell on a break of.

Whilst the rally looks a little overdone our strategy for today is to:
look to establish long Eur now at 1.3163
stops should be placed just under 1.3110
50% profits should be placed at 1.3203
Stops should be raised to entry at this point
the balance of profits should be placed at 1.3230.

GBP rallied to a high of 1.9417 from yesterday’s lows at 1.9299, before succumbing to a heavy sell off on the back of GBP/JPY to a low of 1.9250.

Our strategy for today is to re-establish longs on a break above 1.9335
stops should be placed just under 1.9280
50% profits should be placed at 1.9365
and
stops raised to entry
the balance should be placed at 1.9405.Support at 117.50/55 gave way to set a low of 117.21 and stopped our strategy out for a
50 point loss.

Our strategy for today is to
short USD at 117.65/70
stops should be placedat 118.15
50% profits should be placed at 117.25
and
stops lowered to entry at this point
the remaining profits should be placed at 116.95.

We will stay with our strategy in the Gold and Silver, that is to stay our and wait for the next move. As we mentioned yesterday our medium term view is for higher Gold and Silver prices, we are just very wary of the current price action


Keep Smiling - Don't look back

Trading style: Chartist Artist _ Breakouts and Shakeouts.

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ingot54
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Username: ingot54

Post Number: 1728
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Tuesday, March 13, 2007 - 07:36 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Economic News

USD
Yesterday, the greenback weakened against most of the majors and due to the lack of data it may be reasoned that there were some technical factors and profit taking among the traders which caused this fall of the USD.

Although there is no important US data being released today, the USD has plenty of reasons to be bearish. First, shares of New Century Financial were suspended for trading this morning, raising concerns that the company may have no choice but to file for bankruptcy.

The problem in the sub-prime lending sector is worsening and run the risk of impacting the housing market as a whole. Mortgage lenders are expected to tighten their lending rules, regardless of whether they lend to the sub-prime market or not.

With housing inventory at a 3 month high, prices could soon be affected as well. In addition to New Century Financial, Halliburton also announced that it will be moving its corporate headquarters from Houston to Dubai.

Their move is a no-win situation for the US economy and USD. Not only will it shave hundreds of millions of dollars from tax revenue, but the economic and political consequences of their move could bring out old concerns that many traders and investors may have already forgotten about - which include the twin deficits and protectionism.

If Halliburton gets away with this and Congress fails to block them, more US companies may follow suit - which could hurt the labor market and take away even more tax revenue.

Adding to the dollar bearish sentiment in the market are expectations for weaker US retail sales tomorrow. February was one of the coldest months on record and Wal-Mart has already missed its sales forecasts as a result.

Retail sales should set the tone for the first part of the week until Thursday when we have producer prices, net foreign purchases of US Securities and the Philadelphia Fed index on the docket.

Today, US Retail Sales are expected to come in stronger than last month's 0.0%, at 0.4%.

Tomorrow the US Current Account is expect to be released and the Trade Balance is widely expected to narrow a bit, which together with a strong Retail Sales might cause the Greenback reversal trend to which justified the supposition of expected Range trading this week so it might be an opportunity for day traders to take advantage.

EUR
Yesterday, the GDP which came slightly more positive than expected didn't cause a significant movement on the board.

However, The EUR rebounded strongly thanks to hawkish comments from ECB member Liebscher and overall dollar bearish sentiment.

Liebscher reminded traders that the central bank's work is not over because he feels that inflation is still a risk. He even indicated that he would be willing to vote in favor of raising rates again at the expense of growth.

After raising interest rates to 3.75 percent last Thursday, ECB President Trichet toned down his hawkishness to signal a pause in April and potentially in May as well.

The German ZEW survey is to be out today along with Euro Zone industrial production. The ZEW survey is an Economic Sentiment which measures the institutional investor sentiment.

The monthly indicator reflects the difference between the share of investors that are optimistic and the share of investors that are pessimistic; we expect a positive figure which may establish a bullish trend but not a significant one.

The EUR is mixed ahead of the closely watched Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Indicator, weakening mildly against USD and JPY while remaining firm against the GBP.

After, hitting a low of -28.5 last Nov, the German ZEW has been steadying improving and is expected to continue its trend and rose to 3.3 in Mar.

Continuous improvement in the index in Q1, with 2 consecutive months staying above zero will solidify the view that the impact of the VAT increase is just temporary and overall conditions remain positive.

Meanwhile, the current condition index is also expected to improve further from Feb's 70.9.

JPY
Yesterday, shortly after the European market open, the JPY skyrocketed against all of the major currency pairs as dealers report the unwinding of more carry trades.

Part of the move may have also been attributed to a delayed reaction to the stronger Japanese GDP data and Chinese trade surplus and lower exposures to currencies with high interest rates ahead of a group of US data this week today, when no data at all is expected from Japan, low liquidity and range trading are expected.

Japanese Q4 GDP revised up to 5.4%. That compares to 4.8% on the preliminary cut. The bulk of change came on the investment side, with both private and public spending somewhat stronger.

Nominal labor compensation raised 1.2%yr, 1.4% real. Real private consumption is up a lesser 0.6%yr, implying an increase in the saving rate over the year.

Unit labor costs remain in negative territory at -1.1%, with strong productivity growth primarily responsible.

It was interesting to see that while investors were focused on the global risk environment in the last few weeks, a bunch of economic data due this week should remind them that fundamentals are just as important as interest rates differentials.

Meanwhile, market remains cautious following a growing possible confrontation between the US and Iran.

Technical News

EUR/USD
Volatility is low and strong resistance at 1.3200 and support at 1.3090 forms a tight range for trading, yesterday this pair rose to 1.3201 and reversed backwards to its current price level of 1.3166.

On the 4 hour chart we can see a slight bearish reversal forming on the slow stochastic which crosses above 80 and turning downwards.

GBP/USD
The GBP has reached the key support level at 1.9280 and is still losing ground trying push downwards to a new 3 months low against the USD.

USD/JPY
A secondly bearish trend is gaining strength trying to breach through next resistance level at 116.56 4 hours chart which supports the bearish behavior.

USD/CHF
Strong support and resistance offers little room for a break of the price below 1.2200 and 1.2350, all indicators are neutral and offer no definite direction, however a break below 1.2200 will drive this pair to a new low.

The Wild Card

GBP/JPY
Forex traders take a look at this volatile pair as a solid triple bottom has been formed and an upward correction is on it's way, despite the fact the spread is high on this pair the current correction may generate 200-300 pips at least.


Keep Smiling - Don't look back

Trading style: Chartist Artist _ Breakouts and Shakeouts.

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ingot54
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Username: ingot54

Post Number: 1730
Registered: 05-2004

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Economic News

USD
The current account deficit is the broadest measure of the nation's economic balance sheet with the rest of the world. It encompasses both trade and capital flows. It essentially measures the nation's debt with the rest of the world, which must be financed by loans from abroad or asset sales to foreigners.

Yesterday The US current account deficit was released extremely low in the fourth quarter to its lowest quarterly level in more than a year, while the annual gap hit a record for the fifth consecutive year.

Moreover, import prices rose 0.2%, which was below the market expectation of 0.8% growth and the core number fell 0.1%.

This drop in import prices is a result of the softening in light sweet crude oil prices which has reduced import prices and narrowed the deficit. Also the Dow Jones Industrial Average traded below the 12,000 level, causing some panic in the USD trading session.

Today's figure will play into tomorrow's TIC data release in the morning.

Although producer prices will be considered in tandem, the TIC will likely supports today's findings, or counter them, turning the market dollar bearish.

Comparatively, producer prices will help to ensure that the Federal Reserve will keep at the current stance of no-decision in the immediate future.

EUR
Yesterday, in the early morning, Euro Zone industrial production fell by 0.2 percent on the month over month measure.

The decline subsequently brought the annualized figure lower, suggesting that production may be softer in the near term due to thinner global demand. However, one cannot preclude the possibility of a near term pullback in productivity as the report vaulted a whopping 1 percent last month.

Trichet has turned his attention to labor costs saying that the ECB will be monitoring these more closely. In making this comment he highlighted the concentration on money supply data as an indicator of expectations in the economy.

This may well become the watch word when assessing future ECB rate hike decisions although one more is more-or-less in the cards.

Looking ahead, Core CPI is scheduled for release with markets expecting a figure of 1.8% slightly higher than the previous 1.7%.

The decline will not sit easily in Europe and is a little surprising considering the mostly positive numbers seen in the first two months although these have been dotted with the occasional surprises.

There is still some possibility of the January numbers being affected by the German blip over the VAT hike and overall these will probably prove to be a temporary abnormality.

JPY
Yesterday, the JPY strengthened against most of the majors and rose to 115.75 against the USD. However, in the NY trading session, US investment bank Lehman Brothers Holding said that the home mortgage loan delinquency will not affect their earning and the risk is well contained.

The carry trade unwinding action stopped and JPY bearishness was rekindled. USD/JPY rose sharply to 117.50 however, another strengthening is expected.

Today, due to a lack of information from Japan, we are expecting range trading that will test the support and resistance levels and only a breach of one of them implies the establishment of new forces which may cause another significant movement.

Technical News

EUR/USD
Volatility is relatively low and strong resistance at 1.3245 and support at 1.3114 forms a tight range.

Yesterday this pair moved to the 1.3225 level and is stalling at current price level of 1.3210 - 1.3222. On the daily chart we can see a slight bearish reversal forming on the slow stochastic which crosses just above 80 and turning downwards.

GBP/USD
Are bears waking up after a bullish trend ending ? Well, it seems like the pair is building a significant down move towards support at 1.9200.

However, today it seems as though stochastic are showing reason for the USD to gain some ground as the RSI is in neutral area.

USD/JPY
Daily Studies are pretty neutral, when next resistance is at 118.47 and it seems that this barrier won't be breached today.

On the downside, there is a trend line expected to test near current levels, at 116.00. Today range trading is expected between those levels.

USD/CHF
The USDCHF range trades between 1.2100 and 1.2260 in the last days and is in an overall short term down trend.

There are significant signs of reversal present and intraday's are neutral. We favor the upside and it may be a good entry point .

The Wild Card

EURGBP
4H charts slow stochastic are implying an upcoming bearish trend when crossroads above 80 is observed, however daily charts showing us mixed data when slow stochastic is at 50 and RSI at 43.

Forex traders: today we are expecting range trading between the 78.50 - 82.00.


Keep Smiling - Don't look back

Trading style: Chartist Artist _ Breakouts and Shakeouts.

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ingot54
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Username: ingot54

Post Number: 1731
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With permission from Sonray Capital Markets:

The yen soared across the board on Tuesday as worries about the U.S. subprime mortgage sector pushed investors to further unwind trades funded by borrowing at low rates in the Japanese currency.

U.S. subprime borrowers fell behind on their mortgages at the highest rate in four years in the fourth quarter, the Mortgage Bankers Association said yesterday.

Resuming a trend that began a few weeks ago, the yen posted its sharpest gains against three of the highest-yielding currencies -- Sterling, New Zealand and Australian dollars.

The New Zealand dollar, the currency with the highest interest rate in the developed world, plunged more than 2.4 percent to 80.08. The Australian dollar also plummeted,
down 1.7 percent to 90.81 yen.

There is some feeling among traders that the current carry unwinding is far from over and that the market will experience more volatility as investors pare back further risk in their leveraged portfolios.

Traders sold higher risk assets as delinquencies among U.S. homebuyers raised speculation the Federal Reserve will cut borrowing costs by midyear.

The yen's gains coincided with falls in the U.S. stock market.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.dji> fell more than 200 points in its second-biggest sell-off of the year, as mounting losses in the subprime mortgage sector weighed down shares of companies exposed to the U.S. housing market.

In addition, comments from Asian Development Bank President Haruhiko Kuroda warning that a real-scale unwinding of yen carry trades is yet to come, also prompted investors to buy more yen.

Tuesday's price action was also fuelled by weaker-than-expected U.S. economic data, retail sales grew in February to 0.1%, the U.S. government said, but not as much as
economists had forecast at 0.3%.

The odds the Fed will cut its overnight lending rate between banks to 5 percent from 5.25 percent by its June meeting increased to 54 percent yesterday, from 38 percent on March 12, according to U.S. interest-rates futures contracts for July U.S. stocks plunged, wiping out three days of gains, after the mortgage delinquencies and slower retail sales heightened concern the home-loan crisis is spreading across the economy.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Index all had their steepest retreats since a global rout two weeks ago. The Dow average sank
242.66, or 2 percent, to 12,075.96 for only its second drop of more than 200 points since May.

Crude oil fell to a one-month low in New York after U.S. stocks declined on concern delinquencies among borrowers will spread, slowing the economy. Prices also fell after
the top oil officials for Kuwait and Libya said OPEC will probably maintain its current output targets at a meeting on March 15.

Crude oil for April delivery fell 98 cents, or 1.7 percent, to settle at $57.93.

Gold prices fell in New York for the third session in a row as declines in global equity markets revived concern that investors will sell commodities to cover losses.

The sell off in the Aud overnight was much much sharper than anticipated, our strategy is currently long at .7845 with stops just below the market at .7795.

Another round of carry trade unwinding is likely to result in a break to the downside testing .7750 ahead of a deeper decline to .7715.

Our strategy for today is to keep our stop on longs at just under .7795, however we will look to turn short just under .7790 , stops should be placed just above .7830, 50 % profits should be placed at .7755 and the stop lowered to entry at this point the balance of profits should be placed at .7735.

Our strategy for the Eur is long from 1.3163 with stops at break even after locking in 50% profits at 1.3203, we will now raise the stop to just under 1.3185 as a failure here is likely to lead to a drop towards 1.3160 again.

For an intra day trade our strategy will look to establish short Eur just under 1.3185, stops should be placed just above 1.3216, 50% profits should be placed at 1.3165 and stop lowered to entry the balance of profits should be placed at 1.3155.

The GBP strategy was stopped out after a false break through resistance at 1.9335 only managed a high of 1.9352 before selling against the JPY set in to create a low this morning at 1.9273. Whilst it is sitting on support here the price action is not convincing and another round of liquidation of JPY carry trades is likely to result in a test of the 1.9200 region.

We may see a small bounce back towards 1.9295/00 where our strategy is to establish short GBP with stops just above 1.9335, 50% profits should be locked at 1.9265 and stops lowered to entry, the balance should be placed at 1.9215.

Our strategy in the USD/JPY set short dollars at 117.65 and locked in 50% profits at 117.25 and 116.95.

There is scope on the day for a minor retracement towards 116.35/40 and our strategy would view this as an opportunity to re establish short USD with stops placed just above 116.85, 50% profits should be placed at 115.95 and stops lowered to entry at this point the balance of profits should be placed at 115.65.


Gold and Silver still look a little shakey a failure of last nights lows at 641.53 is likely to test 632.50 with a subsequent failure setting up a much deeper correction towards 610.00/615.00.

Silver is a little more pronounced, a failure of 12.65 is likely to see a test of 12.30 and perhaps 12.05, again our strategy is to wait.


Keep Smiling - Don't look back

Trading style: Chartist Artist _ Breakouts and Shakeouts.

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ingot54
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Economic News

USD
The economic data that was released yesterday showed mixed sentiment yet caused the USD almost no price movement.

The Empire State Business Conditions Index which measures the general business conditions of manufacturers in New York State came in extremely low at 1.9 after coming at 24.4 last month and was widely expected to come in at 16.0.

The US Producer Price Index (PPI) also came out yesterday at a much higher than expected rate of 1.3 after coming in at -0.6% last month and beating the consensus of 0.4%.

The core PPI came in at 0.4% after expectations of 0.2%.

As for today we are expecting the US Consumer Price Index (CPI), at 12:30 GMT as it is expected to rise a bit from last month's 0.2% to 0.3%.

The core CPI however is expected to fall a bit from 0.3% to 0.2%. The Consumer Sentiment is also expected to be released at 16:00 GMT a bit lower than last month's 91.3 at 90 flat.

Today's news events are expected to generate moderate price movement very similar to yesterday's scenario, as all of the events are not expected to cause a break of extreme barriers.

Range trading might be a good strategy for today.

EUR

It was a relatively light day regarding news events in Europe yesterday, as the only significant bits of information were the Euro-Zone CPI and the Swiss Rate decision.

The Euro-Zone CPI rose from last month's -0.5, but inline with expectations of 0.3, causing no mentionable volatility.

The Swiss interest rate was hiked yesterday by 0.25% to 2.25% as expected, and caused the CHF to strengthen all across the board.

The Swiss economy is consistently proving to be stronger than ever, with stable inflationary pressure. No major news is expected to come from Europe today.

JPY
Yesterday, the JPY seemed to have finally taken a day off from the excessive volatility that has characterized its trade in recent weeks, as it traded in a relatively narrow range against the majors.

The JPY slipped lower against the majors, but later during the Asian session gained back some of these losses.

Earlier this morning the Tertiary Industry Activity Index beat expectations of a 1% increase and printed an actual 1.6% increase. Although no significant price action has been produced, the JPY continued strengthening following the release.

The rest of the JPY's trade this week will be determined by its US counterpart, as the only significant data on the tap today is to arrive from the US.

A dollar positive inflationary data might send the USDJPY higher, a reaction that might reflect on the JPY's value against other counterparts as well.

Technical News

EUR/USD
The pair is hovering around the 1.33 level, its 3 month and 2007 high.

The negative divergence that we saw during the last few days on the intraday charts seems to have been a false signal and is no longer valid.

The break above 1.33 exposes 1.3360 as the next resistance level that is likely to be retested.

GBP/USD
The pair is trading near it month's high, at the higher boundary of the range it traded in for the last 3 weeks.

A break above 1.9450 clears the way to test the 1.95level, where the 4H 200 MA serves as resistance.

USD/JPY
Intraday studies are quite neutral, and provide no evidence of a clear direction.

Price action converges into a triangle that might suggest a continuation of the downtrend. We prefer, however, a "wait and see" approach as risk reward ratio is too high.

USD/CHF
The breech below 1.21 signals a resumption of the downtrend, consistent with the 50% correction of the 1.2573-1.2100 move that took the pair back to 1.2350.

A continuation to the 123.6% extension of this move, at 1.20 is likely, but heavy resistance will emerge in this area.

The Wild Card

AUDUSD
This forex pair has been ranging in the 0.7930-0.7690 range for over 2 months, and it is now at the range's highs.

Although a continuation of the uptrend is possible, this a good opportunity to short the top with a stop loss not far behind and a take profit at the lows of the range.


Keep Smiling - Don't look back

Trading style: Chartist Artist _ Breakouts and Shakeouts.

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ingot54
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I receive 2 news feeds most days.

The samples I have posted here have been to see if there is interest.

These newsfeeds are available free from most dealers, and can tend to put traders off their game plan, so will not post more unless they are proving useful to someone.

While Sonray have given their permission to post the feeds, forexyard.com will send them to you if you have a free demo a/c with them.

The following post will be the final one, unless requests for continuation are made.


Keep Smiling - Don't look back

Trading style: Chartist Artist _ Breakouts and Shakeouts.

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ingot54
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Economic News

USD
The relatively positive news flow from the American market didn't stop the USD from weakening during the Friday session. It looked as if traders were truly ignoring the results and trading strong with a bullish notion on the EUR.

The US CPI came in at a higher than expected 0.4% with the core CPI coming inline at 0.2%. Industrial Production released at a much higher than expected 1.0% after coming in last month at -0.3%.

The only relatively negative piece of information came in the form of the Consumer Sentiment which released at a slightly lower than expected 88.8.

As for today no real major data is expected from the US market except for the NAHB Housing market Index which combines several factors including present sales of new homes, sales of new homes expected in the next six months, and traffic of prospective buyers in new homes.

The NAHB produces the index through a survey in which respondents are asked to rate the general economy and housing market conditions.

We should not expect the Index to generate a lot of price movement as it is expected at 38 after coming in at 40 last month.

This week we should be expecting major data from the US such as the Housing Starts and Building Permits tomorrow, and the biggest news of this week the US interest rate on Wednesday.

No major surprises are expected from the US markets this week, and we should most probably see the USD weakening trend continue from last week.

EUR
It has been a very positive week for the EUR all across the board, and especially against the USD.

The Euro-Zone CPI coming inline at 0.3%, and the speech by Trichet last week gave a more robust image for the European economy and traders reacted with intensive bullishness.

As for this week, plenty of major news is expected from the Euro-Zone, especially from the United Kingdom.

We have the German PPI, the UK CPI, the BOE Minutes, the Euro-Zone Trade Balance, and Industrial New Orders.

It looks as if most of the price movement this week will be coming from Europe, with an emphasis on the GBP.

If most of the news will be inline with expectations, we see further positive momentum for the EUR.

JPY
Last week's trading was relatively choppy for the JPY, and was characterized by volatile range trading, without a specific direction.

Many traders chose to stay out of the JPY trading until all the smoke cleared.

The biggest event in the Japanese market this week is the monthly meeting held by the Bank of Japan today.

Although no big surprises are expected to come from the meeting, traders will pay close attention to its outcome as the Japanese interest rate is expected to be released.

The rates are widely expected to remain unchanged at 0.5%, and if indeed expectations will correlate with reality, we should see a further move down for the JPY, as carry trades will return to the picture, and we might see the USD/JPY going back to the 121.00 region.

Technical News

EUR/USD
The pair peaked at 1.3340 on Friday but could not break further and is now consolidating around 1.3300. The daily charts are bullish, and the hourlies are unwinding from overbought territories.

Buying on dips might be preferable today.

GBP/USD
After last week's 400 pip rally down, the pair seems to be back on a positive track, as the daily charts are giving bullish signals, and are supported by mildly bullish hourlies.

Oscillators show that the up trend still has much steam in it.

USD/JPY
The pair went through high volatility sessions last week, as traders were unsure as to where the pair was going.

The picture looks a bit clearer today as the dailies are slowly getting into bullish territories. The trend appears to be up, although traders are advised to let the trend accumulate some more steam before swinging into it again.

USD/CHF
The pair is consolidating around 1.2100, after a three week downtrend. The hourlies are moderately bullish, contradicted by extremely bearish dailies.

That indicates a possible correction up before the downtrend reinitiates.

The Wild Card

AUDUSD
The pair has started to correct back down after touching the upper side of the very distinct channel down. This gives forex traders a great opportunity to enter the market with a short position, and ride the correction until the lower part of the channel.

This pattern is supported by bearish dailies and hourlies, and the target price stands at 0.7750.


Keep Smiling - Don't look back

Trading style: Chartist Artist _ Breakouts and Shakeouts.

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ingot54
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Thanks Kate - I am sure there are others who also use this, so will press on:

_____________________________
from Sonray again ...

High Yielders Gain as Carry Trades attract funds.

The Japanese yen hit a 2-1/2-week low against the euro and dipped against the dollar on Monday as a rash of corporate merger news bolstered global stock markets, reviving investors' appetite for risk.

The Japanese currency had gained in recent weeks as stock prices fell, which caused investors to shy away from risky carry trades, which are often financed with yen.

Rising defaults in the U.S. subprime mortgage sector have also dulled risk appetite, but the flurry of corporate deals overnight sparked a broad recovery in global equities lured investors back into carry trades.

The U.S. currency eased a touch after a decline in the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market index on Monday, but the move was seen as marginal.

Analysts said the outcome of upcoming central bank meetings in Japan and the United States were not likely to erode the appeal of carry trades for now. Both the Bank of Japan and the Fed are seen keeping rates unchanged on Tuesday and Wednesday, maintaining a 4.75 percent difference in borrowing costs.

U.S. stocks had their second-biggest gain of the year, helped by $17 billion in takeovers and speculation that lower borrowing costs will keep the pace of buyouts at a record.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 115.76, or 1 percent, to 12,226.17.

Crude oil was little changed in New York after falling to a seven-week low yesterday on signs a seasonal dip in U.S. refining may reduce demand. An Energy Department report tonight is likely show U.S. oil stockpiles rose for a second week while refiners prepared plants for summer gasoline production, according to a survey of analysts.

Gold's gains were limited as falling oil prices reduced the metal's appeal as an inflation hedge. Oil prices fell for a third straight session, following a 4.9 percent drop last week.

Our strategy for the AUD yesterday established long at .7935 and locked in profits at .7970 and .8015. This is a fairly significant break to the topside for the AUD, we need to look back to 16th Feb 2004 when the AUD traded at .8004 for similar levels.

In the medium term the target for this break is .8210 last seen December 1st 1996, support then at .7930/50 is significant.

Our strategy for today is to look to re establish long AUD into dips to .7995, stops should be placed just under .7940, 50% profits should be placed at .8030 and stops raised to entry, the balance of profits should be placed at .8055.

For the EUR we’re happy to stay with our strategy from yesterday, which was to establish long EUR at 1.3285, placing stops just under 1.3235, 50% profits should be placed at 1.3330 and stops raised to entry, the balance of profits should be placed at 1.3360.

The only amendment maybe to raise the entry to 1.3295.

We were a little wary of the price action in the GBP yesterday, but longs taken on the break of 1.9435/40 would have stops placed just under 1.9375, 50% profits at 1.9480 and 1.9535.

Our strategy for today is to look to establish long GBP at 1.9440 stops should be placed just under 1.9390, 50% profits should be locked in at 1.9475 and stops raised to entry at this point, the balance should be placed at 1.9535.

Our strategy in the USD/JPY was stopped out in fairly quick fashion. Yesterdays price action was a little bewildering. There is resistance at 117.75/80, but if broken could easily trigger a rally extending to 118.80/119.00, where as support is at 117.10/15.

Our strategy for today is to sit this one out for today.

Gold and Silver are both looking a little more constructive this morning, but we re still keeping a low profile preferring to wait for a break of 660.00 and 13.25 before entering longs again.

Stops should be placed just under 645.00 and 12.90 leaving the topside open for the moment.


Keep Smiling - Don't look back

Trading style: Chartist Artist _ Breakouts and Shakeouts.

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ingot54
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SYDNEY, March 20 AAP - The Australian dollar was trading at a ten year high at noon, as rate rise speculation and stable equity markets encouraged traders back into the carry trades.

At 1200 AEDT, the domestic unit was at $US0.8008/10, up more than half a US cent from yesterday's close of 0.7952/55.

During the morning session, it traded between a low of $US0.7943 and a high of 0.8004.

The Australian dollar pushed past its three year high of $US0.8008 during the morning session, and is now trading at levels not seen since 1997.

ABN AMRO currency strategist Greg Gibbs said speculation that interest rates would rise yet again continued to drive the Australian dollar higher today.

"The interest rate speculation here since Friday last week has really hotted up," he said.

"The other factor is the strength in global equity markets that began yesterday in Asia and continued into the US session, and has encouraged global investors to look at the Aussie more favourably."

Mr Gibbs said interest rate speculation and favourable stock markets had encouraged traders back into the carry trades, where a low yielding currency is borrowed to invest in a high yielding one, after a flight to safety in less risky investments in recent weeks.

Adding to the Australian dollar's strength has been general weakness in the US dollar amid concerns about the US economy.

"You've seen weakness in the US dollar, not necessarily overnight, but certainly over recent days and that's supported the currency as well," Mr Gibbs said.

Global conditions all appear in the Australian dollar's favour at present and will likely continue to drive it higher, he said.

"But a lot depends on the stability of global equity markets.

"The performance of the Aussie does depend on the appetite for high yield currencies.
"So provided the appetite is there for high yield currencies, the Aussie dollar can continue to trade higher."

Mr Gibbs said the local currency's next technical level was its 1996 peak of $US0.8215.


Keep Smiling - Don't look back

Trading style: Chartist Artist _ Breakouts and Shakeouts.

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ingot54
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Economic News

USD
Yesterday, the NAHB Wells Fargo Sentiment Index fell in the month of March, lower than expected pushed the USD lower, as concerns permeated in the sector.

Homebuilders, once running high on continuous demand, were struggling to recover from the decline in overall sales. Moreover, speculation continues that further lending will be crimped on a rising number of sub prime defaults, leaving a drag on the overall sector.

For the record, the index dipped to 36 from last month's reading of 39.

Later today we will see German Producer Prices and U.K. CPI while U.S. housing starts may well provide the bigger move of the day with expectations for a reading of 1.44M and an increase in this indicator of 0.03M.

However, with the FOMC rate decision expected tomorrow, the ranges should be limited.

EUR

EUR comments helped to generate a slight decline in the underlying spot as creditability questions overwhelmed policy maker hawkishness.

Although European Central Bank Council member Klaus Liebsher reinforced that the ECB will try to keep inflationary pressures in check, the EUR was forced slightly lower as French Interior Minister Sarkozy questioned the region's central bank.

Targeting ECB Vice President Lucas Papdemos, Sarkozy criticized officials making light of the fact that the bank's single focus on inflationary pressures has crimped overall growth and increased the EUR strength in the markets.

Overall, inflation raises concerns of a rate hike, something that is and will continue to push the EUR higher.

JPY
Yesterday, mixed trading, the dollar was higher against the JPY and the CHF, little changed against the EUR but lower against most high yielding currencies that benefited from the renewed interest in carry trades.

The BOJ decided to leave rates on hold at 0.5% causing the JPY to decrease in value.

Technical News

EUR/USD
The pair continues ranging between 1.3288-1.3325, halfway up. 4H MACD is neutral but faces down; Slow Stochastic is Bullish yet not overbought.

The daily chart is implying on an upcoming reversal with the RSI 79 and the Slow Stochastic at 84. Today, the 1.3288 support level is to be tested and a breakout of this support level will take this pair to the bear's land.

GBP/USD
Hourly charts are in neutral territory however, a bearish flag is establishing on the daily chart, combined with RSI at 85 offering to send this pair down today.

There is a major resistance level at 1.9500 and support at 1.9413 which may be breached today.

USD/JPY
It seems that there is not much more room left for this bullish trend since a significant barrier is located at 118.39. 4H RSI 70 and slow stochastic intersection at 82 level implies range trading today.

USD/CHF
The 2 hour slow stochastic is at 50 and RSI is at 68 suggesting a short term bullish behavior, however lack of volatility in the daily charts keeps this pair trading in a tight range of 1.2078 to 1.2160 that is unlikely to be broken today.

The Wild Card

EUR/AUD
Forex traders should notice that a very interesting pattern emerges from the daily charts since the bearish trend which was started a couple of days ago doesn't have much more room to go.

Key support is at 1.6606 and was tested earlier today, 4H slow stochastic is at 40 and facing up together with RSI at 20 implies an upcoming bullish trend.


Keep Smiling - Don't look back

Trading style: Chartist Artist _ Breakouts and Shakeouts.

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ingot54
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From Sonray ...

The dollar fell against the yen on Tuesday after a magazine reported that China would stop stockpiling foreign exchange reserves.

However analysts said People's Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan might have been misquoted, since China's $1 trillion stash of reserves will keep growing as long as the central bank buys dollars to prevent the yuan from strengthening, a practice it has shown no sign of abandoning any time soon.

Zhou was quoted by the Emerging Markets magazine, a Euromoney publication, as saying "Many people say that foreign exchange reserves in China are (already) large enough. We do not intend to go further and accumulate reserves."

Most people in the market assumed he was misquoted and the intention wasn't that they were going to stop accumulating reserves, but more that they would stop accumulating reserves in the same way as they are now, in other words they would look to be more diverse in new investments and not necessarily reducing US investments.

China's reserves are already the world's largest and have been growing at a brisk pace as China buys foreign currencies -- mainly dollars -- to keep the yuan from rising beyond the top of a tight trading band.

The dollar dipped to a session low of 116.93 yen , and was last trading at 117.22, down nearly 0.3 percent from late Monday. It had touched 118.01 earlier.

U.S. builders broke ground on new homes at an annual rate of 1.525 million last month, up 9 percent from 1.399 million the prior month, which was the lowest pace since August 1997, the Commerce Department said yesterday in Washington. Building permits fell 2.5 percent to a 1.532 million pace.

The GBP rallied against the dollar and the euro yesterday after U.K. consumer prices rose 2.8 percent from a year earlier, the second-fastest pace in a decade, adding to speculation the Bank of England will keep raising borrowing costs from 5.25 percent to stem inflation.

The AUD dollar rose to the strongest in a decade on speculation the central bank will raise interest rates, attracting global currency and bond investors.

The currency has gained as much as 1.4 percent since March 16, when a Reserve Bank of Australia official signalled borrowing costs may need to rise to tame inflation. The Australian dollar's climb above 80 U.S. cents for only the second time since 1996.

The outlook for the domestic economy: Interest rates and commodities are underpinning the Australian dollar and are setting the tone for a rally towards .8300.

Most are now looking ahead to the end of a two-day Federal Reserve meeting tomorrow morning. The Fed is seen leaving rates steady at 5.25 percent, but any mention of recent
equity turmoil or easing inflation could weaken the dollar further.

There is some speculation that the Federal Reserve will change its statement to reflect a deteriorating housing market.

Consumer and utility shares carried the Standard & Poor's 500 Index to its best two-day gain since August after a home construction report reassured investors the economy is growing without fuelling faster inflation.

The Dow average increased 61.93, or 0.5 percent, to 12,288.10.

Crude oil fell on speculation an Energy Department report tomorrow will show that U.S. inventories rose last week. The report is expected to show that refineries increased
operating rates as they prepared for the summer driving season.

The market is in contango, when futures are higher than spot prices, on speculation demand will rise in the months ahead. Crude oil for May delivery fell 45 cents, or 0.8 percent, to settle at $59.25 a barrel at 3:10 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Gold in New York rose to the highest in more than two weeks as the weakening U.S. dollar increased the metal's appeal as an alternative investment.

The AUD has had a range of .7962 to .8032 which has allowed our strategy from yesterday to establish longs at .7995, 50% profits have been taken at .8030 and the stop is now at entry.

For today there is a chance of a minor pullback this morning towards .8010 and our strategy is to establish longs here with stops now just under .7958,
50% profits should be placed at .8055 and stops raised to entry at this point, the balance should be placed at .8075.

Our strategy for the Eur is still long from 1.3285, the first profit target of 1.3330 was just above the high (1.3322), our strategy for today is to close out 50% of the position, cancel the 1.3330 order and raise the stop to entry.

For new positions our strategy for today is to look to re establish long Eur in dips to 1.3305, stops should be placed just under 1.3268, 50% profits should be placed at 1.3335 and stops raised to entry, the balance should be placed at 1.3365.

The rally in the GBP was much stronger than expected, however our strategy established long GBP at 1.9440 (low 1.9431) profits were subsequently locked in at 1.9475 and 1.9535.

The GBP looks destined to retest the 1.9800/50 level, but in the meantime the short term indicators appear a little overdone.

There is therefore scope for a pullback towards 1.9535.

Our strategy today is to re-establish longs in any dip to 1.9535 stops should be placed just under 1.9490, 50% profits should be placed at 1.9585 and stops raised to entry, at 1.9615 raise the stop to 1.9585, look to take profits at 1.9665.

We were quite happy to sit out yesterdays volatility in the USD/JPY, today promises to be just as volatile. A break of minor resistance at 117.30 is likely to see a rally to 117.60/65 where our strategy would look to short USD with stops above 117.15, 50% profits should be taken at 117.35 and stops lowered to entry , the balance of profits should be placed at 117.15.

Gold and Silver are both now showing signs of strength, but its not overwhelming so our strategy is to keep positions relatively small for the moment.

Our strategy is to look to establish small longs in dips to 656.50 stops should be placed just under 649.00, on a break of 663.00 look to raise the stop to entry.

The Silver strategy is to look to establish longs now at 13.22, stops should be placed just under 12.95 and on a break of 13.40 raise the stop to entry.


Keep Smiling - Don't look back

Trading style: Chartist Artist _ Breakouts and Shakeouts.

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captain_chaza
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Wednesday, March 21, 2007 - 02:34 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Ahoy 1st Officer Lafee

Hold on to your hat and always remember
The Only Seaman I know who went Broke used to walk around the decks saying
"You can't go broke taking profits!!"
Go figure?

Salute and Gods' speed
Capn
NB Gold and Silver Charts ATM
Also Please note the Blue sky on the Shanghai Index


"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.

"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate."
Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893

"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897





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ingot54
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Wednesday, March 21, 2007 - 09:32 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Economic News

USD
The USD has been weakening steadily during the last two months, and continued to do so yesterday.

There were two news releases yesterday, the housing starts which came a bit higher than expected at 1.53M, after coming in at 1.40M last month.

The positive housing figure did not change a lot for the USD, as it was offset by a lower than expected building permits figure which came in at 1.53M.

The mixed data did not help to alleviate the recent concerns regarding the slowdown in the housing market and the sub-prime mortgage slump. Consequently, the USD lost ground against most counterparts, ahead of today's Fed rate decision.

The Fed is widely expected to keep the rate unchanged at 5.25%, and the decision itself is already priced in by traders. However, markets really price in expectations, not the actual figures themselves.

The recent USD weakness came on the back of expectations that the Fed will take into account recent warning signs from the housing sector and change its tone to a more dovish tone in today's interest rate statement.

In our opinion, this is why the EURUSD is looking for direction below and above 1.3300, in a tight range - should the Fed deliver what is expected from it, the EURUSD might very well break the 1.3370 December high.

Should the Federal Open Market Committee hold to its relatively hawkish tone, or even decide to address inflationary pressures more than the possible slowdown, we might see the USD rebounding all across the board.

EUR
The European trading session started with the German PPI yesterday, as it was inline with wide expectations at 0.3%.

A bit later we saw the UK CPI reaching a slightly higher than expected 2.8%, and with a core figure of 1.7%. There is one major news event expected from the European market - the BOE Minutes.

The Bank of England minutes will be watched closely for further evidence of the bank's likely policy over the next two months. There is a strong probability that some members of the nine-member committee voted for a rate increase at the meeting and one key issue is the number of votes cast for an increase.

A 5-4 vote for unchanged rates would increase speculation that the bank will tighten policy again in April while a wider margin would swing the odds towards May.

The degree of bank concern over inflationary pressure in the minutes will also be an important consideration for the markets.

Overall, the GBP is unlikely to find further buying support based on the minutes given the amount of tightening priced in.

JPY
Yesterday, Matching all market expectations, the Bank of Japan kept rates unchanged at 0.5%, which caused all carry traders to get back in the game, despite relatively indifferent market behavior.

BoJ Governor Fukui stated in his speech that the static nature of consumer prices supported his decision in keeping the rates unchanged, and that a further hike is not expected soon.

The JPY trade Balance is expected to be released today early in the Japanese trading session, and is expected to be around 0.7T, which might give the JPY a very strong boost, as it is a great improve from last month's flat 0.0T.

Most of today's USD/JPY price movement will most probably derive from the US market and the rate decision release.

Technical News

EUR/USD
The pair bases itself around the 1.3300 level, hopefully in order to make a second attempt for the 1.3370 hill. Intraday oscillators are bullish.

Although slightly overbought, a strong uptrend can make an overbought condition sustain for quite a long time.

GBP/USD
The GBPUSD hovers near the 1.9650 resistance area, but judging by the daily and intraday studies the pair has the necessary momentum to shutter such a resistance.

We are looking for 1.9754 to be taken, and then 1.9830.

USD/JPY
The symmetrical triangle in the 4H chart is past its 2/3 and is now ripe for a breakout. Oscillators are pretty neutral, but given the recent JPY weakness the upside seems more likely.

Either way, 118 is the upper boundary of this triangle and 116.60 is its lower boundary. The triangle's base is about 300 pips wide, leaving us enough flash to act a "wait and see" approach and see whether this triangle indeed develops to a breakout, and in which direction.

USD/CHF
The downtrend continues but the daily chart's MACD and Slow S produce a positive divergence that might send the pair to a correction. In such case, the target would be 1.2185.

The Wild Card

GBPJPY
The 38.2% correction wave of the 189.04-241.20 move seems to be over, and the uptrend seems to resume. We see no significant resistance for this forex pair before 238.15.


Keep Smiling - Don't look back

Trading style: Chartist Artist _ Breakouts and Shakeouts.

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ingot54
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Thursday, March 22, 2007 - 10:11 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



The Fed left rates unchanged at 5.25% but adjusted the press statement substantially.

They downgraded their recent housing and growth assessment, but upgraded their inflation assessment. The upside risk to inflation was left in place, but most importantly, the policy outlook, previously suggesting “additional firming” may be required, is now neutral.

In other words, the Fed is now suggesting that there are three options for future FOMC meetings: a cut, no change or a hike, whereas previously it was either on hold or a rate rise.

Given the Fed’s inflation view, that is still a very mild tightening bias, but clearly less so than previously and some are saying that an interest rate cut may come
sooner rather than later.

==============================================

The euro shot up to $1.3390, its highest since March 2005, after the statement's release, before settling around $1.3385, up 0.5 percent since late on Tuesday.

The dollar also weakened against sterling and high-yield currencies such as the Australian dollar U.S. interest rate futures, meanwhile, were pricing in a 48 percent chance of a rate cut by the end of June, up from 26 percent before the Fed's statement was released.

The minutes to the March BoE MPC meeting showed a surprise 8:1 vote, with the dissenter to the on-hold decision, American David Blanchflower, voting for a 25bps rate cut. The two hawks who voted unsuccessfully for a 25bps hike in Feb, Andrew Sentance and Tim Besley, sided with the majority this time round.

UK Chancellor Brown’s budget contained some surprises in the detail but the bottom line was neutral, as the headline grabbing measures were all offsetting.

=========================================================

The yen dropped as a rally in Asian and European stocks encouraged investors to return to carry trade, taking advantage of Japan's lowest borrowing costs among major economies.

Bank of Japan Governor Toshihiko Fukui said policy makers will keep interest rates low for several months, following a decision this week to hold borrowing costs at 0.5 percent.

Shanghai stocks, whose drop in late February sparked a global sell-off and an unwinding of the carry trade, climbed to a record. The Shanghai Composite Index, which tracks the bigger of China's two stock exchanges, rose 0.8 percent to 3057.38, its highest-ever close.

An 8.8 percent decline in the index on Feb. 27 set off a rout that erased $3.3 trillion of stock value in markets worldwide.

==========================================================

The U.S. stock market posted its biggest gain in eight months, wiping away most of the losses for the year, after the Federal Reserve indicated it is no longer biased toward higher interest rates.

Citigroup Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. sent the Standard & Poor's 500 Index to its steepest three-day rally in four years on prospects the Fed will lower borrowing costs, spurring loan demand and bolstering profits.

The Dow average increased 159.42, or 1.3 percent, to 12,447.52.

==========================================================

Crude oil rose after a government report showed that U.S. gasoline supplies fell for a sixth straight week as refiners increased operating rates.

Crude oil for May delivery rose 36 cents, or 0.6 percent, to settle at $59.61 a barrel at 2:47 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Gold in New York rose after Federal Reserve officials unexpectedly abandoned their bias toward higher interest rates, weakening the dollar and boosting the appeal of the precious metal as an alternative investment.

==========================================================

The Aud closed the overnight sessions at the days highs, our strategy for yesterday established longs into the dip at .8010 and locked in profits at .8055 and .8075. The Aud now looks likely to test the 1st Dec ’96 high of .8211 enroute to .8300.

As we mentioned the other day the break above .8000 is significant and our strategy will look to re-establish longs into dips as long as the .8000 area holds.

For today we re expecting some retracement towards .8035/40, our strategy fro today is to establish long AUD at .8045 stops should be placed just under .7990, 50% profits should be placed at .8075 and the stops raised to entry, the balance of profits should be placed at .8125.

==========================================================

Our strategy for the Eur yesterday closed out profits from longs taken Wednesday at 1.3360 (long from 1.3285). Our new strategy from yesterday closed out longs from 1.3305 at 1.3335 and 1.3365.

Short term indicators suggest this mornings moves as a little overdone and therefore there is scope for a dip back towards 1.3345/50, our strategy for today then is to re establish longs on dips to 1.3350, stops should be placed just under 1.3290, 50% profits should be placed at 1.3385 and stops raised to entry, the balance of profits should be placed at 1.3415.

Unfortunately the dip in the GBP was a touch shallower than we anticipated, at only 1.9554, our strategy was to establish longs at 1.9535 so we did not get set.

For today our strategy is to establish long GBP on a dip to 1.9655 stops should be placed just under 1.9590, 50% profits should be placed at 1.9685 and stops raised to entry the balance of profits should be placed at 1.9725.

==========================================================

The USD/JPY did not fail to live up to our expectation of being volatile.

Our strategy to short USD at 117.60 locked in 50% profits at 117.35 however was then stopped at break even for the balance at the low of 117.16.

Missed our profit target at 117.15. We're expecting a trading range between 118.00 and 117.00 at this point, therefore our strategy for today is to sell USD at 117.80 with stops placed just above 118.15.

50% profits should be placed at 117.55 and lower the stop to entry, the balance should be placed at 117.20.

=========================================================

We were a little unfortunate in the Gold strategy looking to establish longs at 656.50 as the low was only 656.75. Our strategy for today is to now look to establish longs at 660.50 with stops now under 650.00, stops should be raised to entry on a break of 670.00.

The Silver strategy established longs on the dip at 6.22 stops should be raised to entry on a break of 6.40.


Keep Smiling - Don't look back

Trading style: Chartist Artist _ Breakouts and Shakeouts.

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peterloh
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Thursday, March 22, 2007 - 10:27 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



An informative update,Ingot, thank you.


-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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ingot54
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Yen to Gain to as Carry Trade Loses Appeal, Merrill Lynch Says

March 21 (Bloomberg) -- The yen will strengthen against the dollar to June 2005 levels within six months, responding to Bank of Japan lending rate increases, according to Merrill Lynch & Co.

The yen, trading at a more than one-week low of 117.83 per dollar, will appreciate to 107 yen per dollar by September, according to a Merrill's research note published today. The yen will trade at 114 per dollar by June 30, according to the research note.

The yen gained 1 percent this year after investors sold equities worldwide on Feb. 27 and quit borrowing low-interest yen for higher yielding investments elsewhere, a tactic known as carry trade. Japan has the lowest interest rate among developed countries. More than half of fund managers Merrill surveyed last week said the yen should appreciate in the next 12 months.

``The fact that the low-yielding countries are tightening is a negative signal itself for the carry trade,'' said Jason Daw, a senior currency strategist at Merrill in London office. ``Volatility should pick up. These factors will disturb the carry trades, and the yen will probably be the major beneficiary.''

New York-based Merrill is the world's third-largest securities firm by market value.

Volatility

The Bank of Japan raised its benchmark interest rate by a quarter-percentage point to 0.5 percent last month, after lifting the rate to 0.25 percent for the first time in six years in July. Central bankers took no action at their meeting yesterday.

Switzerland's central bank raised its benchmark interest rate by 0.25 percentage point to 2.25 percent last week. Switzerland has the second-lowest borrowing costs among developed nations, and the Swiss franc is another popular funding currency for carry trade.

The Bank of Japan will lift the rate by another 0.25 percentage point in the third quarter, and boost it to 1 percent in the first three months of next year, according to Daw.

Investors will avoid new bets on a weakening yen because of wider swings in the foreign exchange market, according to Merrill. Rising volatility upsets carry trades, making gains less predictable.

Implied volatility on three-month dollar-yen options rose to 8.7 percent, the highest since August on March 19, reflecting investors' expectation for wider fluctuation in the underling currencies in coming months. The volatility was 7.95 today.

Fifty-four percent of 125 fund mangers responding to the Merrill's survey expected the yen to appreciate within a year, up from 42 percent in February. The survey was conducted from March 9 to March 15. Merrill polled 199 managers overseeing a combined $668 million in assets, according to a statement by the securities firm.

About 77 percent of 153 fund mangers thought the yen is undervalued, while 9 percent believed the currency is overvalued, according to the statement. The remaining mangers thought the yen fairly valued.


Keep Smiling - Don't look back

Trading style: Chartist Artist _ Breakouts and Shakeouts.

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ingot54
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Friday, March 23, 2007 - 08:39 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Economic News

USD
Yesterday, the Federal Reserve said that it would keep the federal funds rate unchanged at 5.25%, unchanged since June. The rate decision caught few off-guard, but investors cheered language in the statement suggesting the economy remained on solid footing.
___________________________________________________________

Crude inventories rose by four million barrels last week to 329.3 million barrels, well above average for this point in the year, according to a report released Wednesday by the Energy Department which may cause some ease in Crude Oil prices and give a push to the US industry.
___________________________________________________________

Recent indicators have been mixed and the adjustment in the housing sector is ongoing. Nevertheless, the economy seems likely to continue to expand at a moderate pace over coming quarters.

Recent readings on core inflation have been somewhat elevated. Although inflation pressures seem likely to moderate over time, the high level of resource utilization has the potential to sustain those pressures.

In these circumstances, the Committee's predominant policy concern remains the risk that inflation will fail to moderate as expected. Future policy adjustments will depend on the evolution of the outlook for both inflation and economic growth, as implied by incoming information.
_________________________________________________________

Yesterday The USD slumped to a two year low against the EUR following the FOMC statement , which made the greenback fans get rid of the USD, however today we should expect some relief from the bullish trend.
___________________________________________________________

EUR
The EUR surged to 2 a-year high after the FOMC statement, as mentioned above. The ECB President Trichet gave a testimony to Parliament yesterday, repeating the current ECB line of a strong economy but with upside inflation risks and that wage settlements are key for the immediate future.

That said, Euro-zone unemployment is unacceptably high and thus moderate wage settlements are important not only for inflation but for job growth.

With the accommodative policy, the implication is still for a hawkish policy on interest rates but his comments perhaps suggest a possible future pausing very much dependent on the development of the balance of growth against inflation pressures.
___________________________________________________________

The minutes of the March BoE MPC meeting showed a surprise 8:1 vote, with the dissenter to the on-hold decision, American David Blanchflower, voting for a 0.25% rate cut. UK Chancellor Brown's budget contained some surprises in the detail but the bottom line was neutral, as the headline grabbing measures were all offsetting.

Eventually it was the EUR that enjoyed the rally more than any other currency as the market expects more EZ interest rate hikes this year from the current 3.75%.

Overall, the EUR traded with a range of a low 1.3291 against the USD and a high of 1.3390 before closing at 1.3383 in the New York session.
__________________________________________________________

JPY
The Japanese Yen (JPY) was the least volatile currency on the back of the Fed interest rate announcement.

Overall the JPY traded with a low of 117.15 and a high of 117.95 before closing at 117.59. Looking ahead the Trade balance out of Japan is scheduled for release today with markets expecting a figure 700 bln.

UPDATE: Trade Balance at 979bln.

Big Japanese manufacturers were less confident about business conditions in the three months to March, a government survey showed on Thursday, prompting concern about the continuing strength of the current economic recovery.

The data suggests the Bank of Japan's closely watched tankan quarterly business sentiment survey, due out on April 2, may show a slight deterioration in large manufacturers' sentiment.

But in a positive sign for the corporate sector, Japan's trade surplus unexpectedly rose in February from a year earlier on continued firmness in export growth.

Both indicators are unlikely to change the dominant market view that the Bank of Japan will go slow on any future rate hikes, after having raised its key policy rate in February.

The business survey index on sentiment at large manufacturers in the January-March quarter fell to plus 0.1 from plus 7.1 in October-December, according to a joint survey by the Ministry of Finance and the Economic and Social Research Institute, an arm of the Cabinet Office.

The BOJ kept its key overnight call rate target unchanged at 0.5 percent in a two-day policy meeting that ended on Tuesday, as widely expected by markets.
__________________________________________________________

Technical News

EUR/USD
Technical indicators point that a slight bearish reversal can be expected today, as daily slow stochastic crossed above 80 readings and daily RSI is curving downwards above 80, however the heavy resistance level at 1.3370 has been breached and further highs are expected in the long run.
__________________________________________________________

GBP/USD
This pair has reached the upper Bollinger band on the daily charts and is trying to reach the next resistance level at 1.9720 to continue with the bullish behavior, slow stochastic is still bullish with a reading high above 80, however daily RSI is curving downwards offering a possible bearish retracement for today.
___________________________________________________________

USD/JPY
Volatility has dropped tremendously in the last week and range trading between 117.90 to 116.88 has been characterize in the last week, daily RSI is neutral at 58 and slow stochastic is curving downwards just above 60 offering a slight bearish reversal.
___________________________________________________________

USD/CHF
Heavy support level is set to 1.2050, if the price levels break below that price we will probably see this pair testing the new 3 months low again.

Neutral RSI and Momentum on the daily charts offer little room for a definite trend direction and we shall expect range trading today.
_________________________________________________________
The Wild Card

GBPJPY
This forex pair has reached the heavy resistance level at 231.00 and failed to break upwards, it also reached the upper Bollinger band on the daily chart.

The major long term trend is still down even though last week came with a rather bullish correction, we are expected to see bearish behavior today.


Keep Smiling - Don't look back

Trading style: Chartist Artist _ Breakouts and Shakeouts.

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ingot54
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Monday, March 26, 2007 - 07:29 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



USD
Last week we saw an ongoing depreciation of the USD against all majors, with a peak of 1.3340 against the EUR on Thursday.

But it was not all bad news for the Greenback as it received a boost of energy after Friday's very surprising Existing Home Sales for the month of February.

The wide consensus on the Home Sales Figure was around -1.7% and the figure was released at 3.9 percent in February - the sharpest rise in three years - to 6.69M from 6.44M.

Although the figure for January was revised down to 2.7 percent from 3.0 percent, the markets took the report as extremely bullish for US housing and will likely fuel further speculation that the sector has bottomed out.
___________________________________________________________

This week we expect several new events from the US market: the first will be a direct continuation to Friday's existing home sales figure - New Home Sales.

New Home Sales (14:00 GMT) is expected to follow last week's boost in the housing market and the consensus figure is around 5.1% after coming in at -16.6 last month.

If the figure will indeed be released around the expectancy we should be seeing an additional appreciation of the Greenback all across the board.

As for the rest of the week, traders will be watching the release of the US Consumer confidence and US Durable Goods closely, which is also expected to come in very strong and add some more steam to the USD strengthening trend.
___________________________________________________________

EUR
With no significant major data at the end of last week's trading, the EUR was carried on the back of the bullish USD sentiment and lost about 100 pips. The ECB's Euro-zone current account surplus widened marginally to 2.7B in January from a downwardly revised 2.0B.

However, oil prices were still relatively low during the month and lowered import values, which will likely rise in February and March, stabilizing the balance.

As for today the European calendar is empty, and the only important news that is expected to come from Europe this week is from the German sector in the form of the German CPI and the Unemployment rate.

The EUR behavior will most likely continue to be biased mostly from US data this week as it is far more dominant.
___________________________________________________________

JPY
The Bank of Japan sent a clear message to traders last week as the rates were held steady at 0.5%.

The Japanese calendar is packed with major data this week such as the Retail Trade on Wednesday, Personal income and the Jobless Rate on Thursday and the Housing Starts on Friday.

The big picture for the JPY appears to be the continuation of carry trades and further decline against all majors, until a further change in policy will be announced.
___________________________________________________________

Technical News

EUR/USD
The pair seems shy of 1.3250, which is a local support. The hourlies are slightly bullish, and the dailies are turning bearish. It looks as a preferable strategy might be looking for peaks to go short.
___________________________________________________________

GBP/USD
There is a great bullish momentum on the daily charts, yet the hourlies are heavily overbought. 1.9580 appears to an established local support, and a good starting point for long positions.
___________________________________________________________

USD/JPY
The pair has been going up for the last three weeks and shows no signals of a break. The daily studies are still bullish, and the hourlies are overbought, making it wise to wait for a dip before establishing further long positions.
___________________________________________________________

USD/CHF
After the pair reached bottom at 1.2100 last week, it looks as if a reversal is slowly being established. The daily charts are turning bullish, supported by moderately bullish hourlies. Current target price is 1.2250.
___________________________________________________________

The Wild Card

CAD/CHF
The pair has been rallying down for several months now, and shows no signs of stopping. There is a pattern forming on the daily chart indicating that 1.0500 is a strong resistance.

There is a double doji forming on the daily charts which gives forex traders a great opportunity for a further short entry point.


Keep Smiling - Don't look back

Trading style: Chartist Artist _ Breakouts and Shakeouts.

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ingot54
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Tuesday, March 27, 2007 - 04:46 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



MARKETS UPDATE DOLLAR CREDIT NOON
SYDNEY, March 27 AAP - The Australian dollar remained higher at noon, buy off its morning highs after reaching the 81 US cent mark for the first time in more than a decade.

At 1200 AEST, the domestic unit was trading at $US0.8085/91, up rom yesterday's close of $US0.8054/59.

It traded between a low of $US0.8083 and a high of 0.8109 - its highest level since December 3, 1996.

The local dollar dropped back a little as the US currency recovered following setbacks overnight on the back of weaker housing data, Commonwealth Bank senior currency strategist Richard Grace said.

"The lower US dollar has helped give the Aussie a leg up," he said.

"The US dollar has recovered from being down overnight."
Sales of new homes in the US fell by 3.9 per cent in February to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 848,000 - the slowest sales pace in nearly seven years, the US Commerce Department said.

Mr Grace said the US market expected interest rates to fall, which had weakened the currency.

Conversely, traders expect interest rates in Australia to rise in April or May, which is also pushing the dollar higher.

"We have diverging trends in the US economy whereas the Australian economy is showing growth and momentum," Mr Grace said.

"It's more than a subtle driver, it's the main driver."

Higher commodity prices and appreciating currencies in Asia were also boosting the Australian unit, he added.

"Those sort of things can have momentum. What we're seeing is that momentum continuing into today's trade. That's a subtle driver against the backdrop of strong global growth."

CURRENCY TABLE: Currency snapshot at 1200 AEST
CURRENCY SPOT PREVIOUS CLOSE
AUD/USD 0.8085-91 0.8045-48
AUD/JPY 95.63-68 95.00-06
AUD/EUR 0.6063-73 0.6059-64
AUD/NZD 1.1277-92 1.1301-14
AUD/GBP 0.4107-12 0.4098-03
EUR/USD 1.3327-31 1.3273-75
USD/JPY 118.29-30 118.08-13
EUR/JPY 157.63-67 156.


Keep Smiling - Don't look back

Trading style: Chartist Artist _ Breakouts and Shakeouts.

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ingot54
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Tuesday, March 27, 2007 - 07:13 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Just a quick paste - no time to edit ...

_________________________________

Economic News


USD
The massive USD sell-off that took place yesterday, following the release of the New Home Sales data, suggests that traders were caught a little bit off guard. On Friday, Existing Home Sales saw the largest monthly percentage increase in around three years, increasing 3.88% to 6.69mln. Basking in the strength of this figure, markets were expecting today's New Home Sales data to release inline with, and maybe even above, consensus expectations of 0.99mln. Along with Friday's figure, this would have helped in alleviating economists' concerns about the slump in the sub-prime lending sector and in the housing sector as a whole. The woeful 848K New Home Sales figure, however, as well as the 80K downward revision to January's reading, refueled fears of a slowdown in the housing sector that can very well disseminate to other sectors of the economy. The market, in reaction, sent the USD to revisit the 1.3350 and 1.9720 levels against the EUR and the GBP, respectively, and triggered a knee-jerk sell-off against the JPY sending the USDJPY to trade around 80 pips lower at 117.60. While the EUR and GBP managed to hold on to their gains during the overnight Asian session, the JPY could not do the same and returned trading around 118.30.

Today we are expecting the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence, a monthly survey conducted among 5,000 households throughout the US which are being asked to evaluate the prospects for the economy in the future. The survey derives its importance from the great correlation it has with the strength of consumer spending - optimistic consumers tend to spend more and boost economic growth in the process. Consensus estimates are for a 109 reading, which reflect a non significant decline of 3.5 pts from February's reading. Given the pessimism prevailing in the market due to the developments in the US housing sector, we believe the survey will come under great scrutiny, and a figure well below expectations might prompt another USD sell-off, if this would not take place even earlier. Along with this release the Richmond Fed survey is due out as well, and is actually expected to improve by 6 pts after coming at -10 the previous month. The impact of this release is expected to be muted due to the more important Consumer Confidence.

EUR
Yesterday, the EUR traded in a mixed trend on the back of a calendar empty of economic releases. Indeed, the EURUSD retested the 1.3050 level, but this was due to the dollar's weakness rather than to EUR strength. While this can be argued for the EURJPY as well, against the EUR's other major counterparts the currency either devaluated or was little changed.

Today's European calendar is not loaded with events either, and we are only expecting the German IFO Business Climate Index. Expectations are for a 106.5 reading at the Current Situation part and for a 102.6 reading for the Expectations part. Both figures reflect an insignificant decline from last month's reading of 106.5 and 102.2, respectively. Should the survey come stronger than expectations, we might see the EUR make a second attempt for the 1.34 level against the USD.

JPY
The minutes of the BoJ's February monetary policy meeting show that board members agreed the bank should adjust interest rates gradually based on economic and price conditions, while the government's representative at the meeting cautioned against a rate increase, saying deflation had not yet been overcome. At least for now, this was enough to clear the way for further JPY depreciation, and the currency lost considerable ground against most major counterparts.

Meanwhile, the Corporate Services Price Index (CSPI) missed expectations of 0.4% monthly rise, releasing at 0.2%. With the more important data still ahead of us, the release had little, if any, impact. Although we do not expect an additional rate hike from the BoJ in the upcoming month or two, and although we do see carry trades to continue being the theme, we recommend avoiding new short JPY positions ahead of this week's important data coming from Japan- Retails Sales, CPI, PMI, Employment data and more. We see a possibility for another correction which might provide a better opportunity to enter the market on the JPY.

Technical News

EUR/USD
The healthy 50% retracement of the 1.3088-1.3409 move which brought the pair down to 1.3250, seems to have settled the negative divergence we noticed last week. The pair has once again gathered momentum, oscillators are bullish daily and intraday, and another attempt for the 1.34 hill is expected.

GBP/USD
The GBP/USD is still bound in its two months range and the current 1.9730 level serves as a very significant resistance. Although twice breeched, this level has pretty much capped most of the pair's gains in the recent 4 months. The pair, however, is not lacking momentum and oscillators are bullish. The risk/reward ratio is pretty high to place a trade, we rather sit on the sidelines.

USD/JPY
A rising wedge is can be eyed on the 4H chart and is close to an end. MACD is flat at 0.16 and Slow Stochastic is also in positive territory. The breach from the wedge is more likely to occur to the upside, but given the 200SMA capping at 118.60, we recommend tight stop loss orders.

USD/CHF
A pretty wide down sloping channel extends from late February. After hitting its upper boundary at 1.2225, the pair is expected to continue going down.

The Wild Card


EUR/AUD
This forex pair, which has been trading roughly between 1.6350 and 1.7200 for the past 9 months, is now nearing the bottom of this range. The 4H MACD produces a bullish divergence, sloping upwards while prices head sharply down. Small longs can be attempted, although a further dip to 1.6350 is possible.


Keep Smiling - Don't look back

Trading style: Chartist Artist _ Breakouts and Shakeouts.

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ingot54
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Wednesday, March 28, 2007 - 02:46 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



These times are GMT

News due for release today USA

7:30 AM Retailers' Confid. General MAR ?Italy
7:30 AM Services Survey MAR ?Italy

7:30 AM Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) FEB ?Denmark or Sweden
7:30 AM Retail Sales n.s.a. (YoY) FEB ?Denmark or Sweden

8:00 AM Euro-Zone M3 s.a. (YoY) FEB Europe
8:00 AM Euro-Zone M3 s.a. 3 mth ave. FEB Europe

8:30 AM GDP (QoQ) 4Q F British
8:30 AM GDP (YoY) 4Q F British
8:30 AM Current Account (BP) 4Q British 9.4B

9:30 AM KOF Swiss Leading Indicator MAR Swiss

11:00 AM MBA Mortgage Applications 23-Mar USA
12:30 PM Durable Goods Orders FEB USA
12:30 PM Durables Ex Transportation FEB USA
2:30 PM DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories 23-Mar USA
2:30 PM DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories 23-Mar USA
2:30 PM DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory 23-Mar USA
2:30 PM DOE U.S. Refinery Utilization 23-Mar USA
2:30 PM API U.S. Crude Oil Inventories 23-Mar USA
2:30 PM API U.S. Gasoline Inventories 23-Mar USA
2:30 PM API U.S. Distillate Inventory 23-Mar USA

10:45 PM Current Account Balance 4Q ?NZ 4.580B


Note - I am unsure of the country's flag, so have put a "?"


(Message edited by ingot54 on March 28, 2007)


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ingot54
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From Sonray ...

Weak U.S. economic data, rising oil prices, and housing concerns set the tone for the U.S.dollar overnight.

The dollar extended its loss after US Conference Board reported that its consumer confidence index fell from 112.5 to 107.2 in March.

The S&P/Case-Shiller index showed home prices dropped in January for the first time in at least six years. It followed a March 26 report showing new home sales unexpectedly fell to the lowest in almost seven years and added to the dollars woes.
___________________________________________________________

A rumour that US warship came under fire saw crude rally sharply, however the rumour cant be substantiated and crude has slipped back USD 2.00.
___________________________________________________________

Cleveland Fed President Pianalto stated that the Fed was monitoring inflation as it saw a risk that it will not moderate as much as expected. However, yesterday's weak new home sales and today's consumer confidence decline reinforced market expectations for a Fed rate cut later in the year.
___________________________________________________________
The pound dropped versus the dollar and the euro after Bank of England Governor Mervyn King damped speculation of an imminent rise in U.K. interest rates. The pound slid the most in almost two weeks against the dollar after King said in a statement agreed by policy makers the housing market was beginning to slow and it was "not surprising" rate setters held different views on inflation because it has been volatile.
___________________________________________________________

The euro was boosted after Germany IFO survey showed unexpected rises in both current conditions and outlook of the economy.

The IFO headline index rose slightly to 107.7 in March, beating the forecast of 106.5. The current Conditions index rose from 111.6 to 112.4, and the Expectations index rose to 103.2.

IFO said today that the economic upswing is strong and robust.
___________________________________________________________

ECB council member Nicholas Garganas said in an interview today interest rates have not peaked yet. Another ECB policy maker Klaus Liebscher said the central bank will act if inflation risks rise.

Hawkish officials' comments boosted expectations for another rate hike, giving the euro a firm support today.

The market is looking ahead to Bernanke's speech to shed some light on housing's impact on the economy. Bernanke testifies on the economic outlook at 10:30 a.m. in Washington.
___________________________________________________________

Crude oil futures were sharply higher in afterhours trading Tuesday after advancing a whopping $5 and topping $68 on speculation of a military confrontation in the Persian Gulf involving Iran.

The origin of the rumours couldn't be pinned down; several market participants said they heard talk of an Iranian strike on a U.S. ship in the Persian Gulf. The U.S. Navy and the White House said there was nothing to indicate any incident talking place regarding Iran.

Even a small military incident could lead to the loss of some oil supply from the region. In a military confrontation with the U.S., traders worry that Iran could also block the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow Persian Gulf chokepoint through which about 20% of the world's oil supply passes each day.
___________________________________________________________

U.S. stocks posted their steepest drop in two weeks after falling home prices and weaker consumer confidence deepened concern the housing crisis will snuff out economic growth.

All 16 homebuilders in Standard & Poor's indexes fell after Lennar Corp. said it will miss its profit goal and a private report showed home prices decreased for the first time in at least six years.

Countrywide Financial Corp., the biggest U.S. mortgage lender, declined the most in the S&P 500 on speculation delinquencies among the riskiest borrowers will rise.
___________________________________________________________

The Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 71.78, or 0.6 percent, to 12,397.29, leaving it with a 2007 loss of 0.5 percent.
___________________________________________________________

Our strategy for the AUD is long at .8075 with stops now just under .8025, 50% profits should be placed at .8105 and stop raised to entry and the balance should be placed at .8125 and we’re happy to stay with that strategy for today.
___________________________________________________________

Our strategy for the Eur was looking to set longs into dips to 1.3300/05, however an overnight low of only 1.3322 leaves us with nothing set.

Our strategy for today is to look to establish long EUR into dips to 1.3340, stops should be placed just under 1.0290, 50% profits should be placed at 1.3375 and stops raised to entry at this point, the balance of profits should be placed at 1.3405.
___________________________________________________________

We are happy to stay with our strategy from yesterday on the GBP this morning and that is long GBP at 1.9655, stops should be placed at 1.9585, 50% profits should be placed at 1.9710 and stops raised to entry at this point, the balance should be placed at 1.9760.
___________________________________________________________

The break that we were looking for yesterday in the USD/JPY did not eventuate and leaves our strategy square.

The failure to push higher yesterday now leaves some potential for a break lower towards 117.15/20.

Our strategy is to establish short USD at 117.85, stops should be kept tight at just above 118. 15, 50% profits should be placed at 117.55 and stops lowered to entry and the balance should be placed at 117.15.

Our Gold and Silver strategy is unchanged from yesterday in that we are happy to be long at 660.50 with stops just under 650.00 looking to raise the stop to entry on a break of 670.00.

Our Silver strategy is to continue to monitor the price action for now.


Keep Smiling - Don't look back

Trading style: Chartist Artist _ Breakouts and Shakeouts.

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ingot54
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Economic News

USD
The US Consumer Confidence came in at 107.2, falling short of consensus expectations of 109.

February's Consumer Confidence was also downwardly revised to 11.3 from an initially reported 112.5 reading.

As expected, consumers' concerns regarding the weakness in the housing sector were among the major reasons for this report's decline.

March's report continues showing a strong divergence between the present situation component and the expectations component, and while the present situation component peaked to an almost 6 year high of 137.6, the expectations component fell from 93.8 to 56.9, its lowest level in 8 months.

The lower than expected consumer confidence, along with a weaker than expected Richmond Fed survey that came at -10 on expectations of -4, suggests that the Federal Reserve wont be able to hold the current interest rate level for too long.

Following the report, the USD weakened against all major counterparts, reflecting traders renewed expectations for a rate cut later this year.
___________________________________________________________

Today's calendar gears up and brings us the Durable Goods data, which is expected increase 3% MoM and 1.8% ex-autos.

Yesterday's market reaction was lacking the momentum required for the EUR and the GBP to hit 1.34 and 1.97, respectively.

Should today's data also fall short of expectations, there is a strong probability that the USD will continue to sell off and retest the 1.34 and 1.97 levels.

EUR
The German IFO Business Climate unexpectedly rose 1.2 pts to 107.7, while the expectations index rose 1 pt to 103.2.

This has provided the EUR with some back wind to climb higher against its counterparts, but evidently not enough to hold it there.

During the sessions that followed, the EUR tried basing above the 1.3330 level, but it seems any appreciation will not occur before the US market opens and the US data releases, since most EUR data for the day has already been released- most important of which was the M3 Money Supply which have increased 10% YoY.

A higher Money Supply means inflationary pressures continue increasing, leaving the European Central Bank with a good enough reason to stick to their hawkish rhetoric.
___________________________________________________________

EUR's price action today is very much dependant on the news scheduled for release elsewhere and the way its counterparts react to these events.

Although the EURUSD 1.34 level seems hard to reconquer, a weak US data might send the pair to retest this level.
___________________________________________________________

JPY
The JPY is showing some signs of recovery as inflation expectations in Japan rose after the BoJ governor Fukui provided the Diet's Upper House committee on financial issues his opinion regarding the prospects of inflation this year.

The BoJ governor expects prices to remain at their current level for the upcoming months and then rise during the second half of the year.

The data scheduled for release during the upcoming days from Japan will surely help the markets in shaping those expectations, and incase these indeed increase, the JPY has a lot more room to appreciate.
___________________________________________________________

Technical News

EUR/USD
Intraday studies suggest that the uptrend has lost most of its momentum.

During the morning hours the pair crossed below the daily pivot at 1.3344, but found support at the S1 pivot, at 1.3326.

The pair is expected to continue to trade in a bearish sentiment for the next few hours, but the opening of the US market can very well change that.
___________________________________________________________

GBP/USD
As with the previous pair, intraday oscillators are rather bearish, and given the strong 1.97 resistance, we see little chance for it to be broken. Never the less, stops should be cautiously placed in case shorting.
___________________________________________________________

USD/JPY
An Elliott wave analysis of the uptrend that extends since mid May, 2006 reveals a precise 1-2-3-4-5-a-b pattern.

In this case, we are now expecting a C wave that can extend as low as 114.50. Be aware that the uptrend has not been violated, and therefore any trades against the trend are not recommended and should be done with extreme caution.
___________________________________________________________

USD/CHF
The pair continues heading towards the lower boundary of the channel we've mentioned yesterday, below 1.20. Substantial support will emerge at 1.2070 and 1.2030.
___________________________________________________________

The Wild Card (USDCHF)

A negative divergence on the 4H chart MACD and Slow Stochastics of this forex pair exposes 1.6140 as a first target. The uptrend remains intact; short positions should be taken with great caution.


Keep Smiling - Don't look back

Trading style: Chartist Artist _ Breakouts and Shakeouts.

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kate
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Thanks again Ingot, M3 is up 1 percent from last year, Trichet didn't like the 9% so interest rates will undoubtably rise.

Kate


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msparks
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Hi Kate
Do you have a link to the M3 figures or chart ?
Benakie last night was interviewed by senate on bloomberg and it was mentioned that someone is keeping the M3 figures available eventhough the fed has decided to hide the truth.

Much talk about the old generation and healthcare and US is basically a service based economy now.
Not enough workers per retire.

Lucky china and asia has plenty , and the mexicans still breeding up i guess.
What is it about well to do populations, too fat and happy to breed or what ?

Housing debacle not over by a long shot, iran brewing, oil flying, and the ausie cash down 20 points overnight on IG.

Hey Ingot, these ig advanced charts are OK , make sure you have java and trusted site etc sorted.




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kate
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Mark,
I've transferred Ingot's information into the link on M3 figures. There doesn't appear to be any one site that you can collect the figures and Trichet is the only leader to be transparent enough to openly publish (and worry about)them. The underlying theme is that inflation is rife globally and especially in the US. All the talk about the US lowering interest rates is ridiculous, if that happens it will increase the chance of a much worse recession later on. By the way, after the durable goods orders came in last night there were others aside from Greenspan mentioning the R word.

Regards
Kate


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ingot54
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UAS data for release today GMT:

12:30 PM GDP Price Index 4Q F
12:30 PM GDP Annualized 4Q F
12:30 PM Personal Consumption 4Q F
12:30 PM Initial Jobless Claims 24-Mar
12:30 PM Continuing Claims 17-Mar
2:00 PM Help Wanted Index FEB
2:30 PM EIA Natural Gas Storage Change 23-Mar


Keep Smiling - Don't look back

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ingot54
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The dollar traded mostly higher against the other major currencies Wednesday after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said he doesn't foresee a recession in the U.S. economy.

However the dollar suffered its biggest slide against the yen in two weeks, in line with weakness on Wall Street.

The sell-off in the dollar started yesterday after rumours of conflict between the Britain and Iran and spurred investors to unwind risky carry trades.

But is also appears Dollar/yen traders appear to be taking their cue from movements in U.S. stock markets, both appearing to move in tandem.

Bernanke testified on Capitol Hill amid growing concerns that problems with risky mortgages and a painful housing slump could send the economy into a tailspin.

Former Fed chief Alan Greenspan recently said there's a one-in-three possibility of a recession this year.

Bernanke said earlier in his speech that near-term prospects for the U.S. housing market are uncertain and that developments in the subprime mortgage sector, which makes loans to high-risk borrowers, have raised more questions.

But while acknowledging some risks he told Congress' Joint Economic Committee that the Fed does not see such negative forces pushing the economy into recession.

He went on to say that the direction of interest rates hinges on what incoming barometers say about the economy and inflation.

Orders for durable goods increased 2.5 percent in February amid an increase in sales of commercial aircraft and autos after a 9.3 percent falloff in January. Wall Street had expected the Commerce Department report would show a 3.5 percent gain.

Stocks fell after Ben Bernanke chided investors who may have looked past long-standing concerns about inflation.

The Dow Jones industrials fell nearly 100 points, the third straight session of declines. The Dow industrials ended down 96.93, or 0.78 percent, to 12,300.36, after falling as much as 140 points after the Fed released Bernanke's prepared remarks for his testimony.

A rise in oil prices to a six-month high and a weaker-than-expected rise in orders for large manufactured goods compounded investors' concerns Wednesday.

Like the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank reiterated their own concerns for inflation risk. ECB President Trichet said that monetary growth is vigorous and interest rates are still on the accommodative side, suggesting that the central bank may be considering another rate hike.

There is a number of important Eurozone data due for release tonight, which includes German and French unemployment and Eurozone retail PMI.

With the US calendar devoid of any significant data, we could finally see some Euro driven price action. The market is looking for an improvement in the labor markets, but deterioration in consumer spending.
___________________________________________________________

In the UK softer housing market, trade and GDP figures have sent the British pound tumbling against the US dollar today as prospects for another rate hike diminishes even further.

The market was originally looking for faster house price growth in the month of March, but not only did house prices grow by a slower pace (0.4 percent actual versus 0.7 percent expected), but growth in the prior month was also revised lower.

Fourth quarter GDP growth was also revised from 0.8 to 0.7 percent, but the biggest disappointment came from the current account deficit, which hit 16 year high of GBP 12.7 billion in the fourth quarter.

Inflation and housing data is due out tonight along with the CBI distributive trades survey.
___________________________________________________________

The New Zealand dollar was one of the day’s worst performing currencies.

Despite the improvement in building permits and a 4 month high in approvals, the exodus out of carry trades has hit the currency hard.
___________________________________________________________

Gold rose to a three-week high as the U.K. increased diplomatic pressure on Iran over the seizure of 15 sailors and marines, spurring demand for the precious metal as a haven.

Our strategy for the Aud is still long at from .8075, stops should be placed at .8025, 50% profits placed at .8105 and the balance at .8125 and we will stay with that for today.

The AUD is currently trading at a fairly pivotal point here at .8060 and a close above this level today should see a return to the topside move develop.

However should we see further unwinding of carry trades or repatriation for the end of the Japanese fiscal year there is scope for a sell off targeting .7980 should support at .8030 fail.
___________________________________________________________

The Eur is sitting on support at 1.3300/05, leaving our stops loss from yesterday a little vulnerable. Our strategy for today is to leave our strategy in place (after missing our first sell at 1.3375 after a high of 1.3373) that is stop sell at just under 1.3290.

Our strategy is to establish short Eur on a break below 1.3290 placing stops at 1.3325 and looking to lock in profits at 1.3265, where we would look to re establish longs for a rally back to 1.3360, stops on this long should be placed just under 1.3210.
___________________________________________________________

GBP is just holding above support at 1.9600/10 and leaves our long strategy from yesterday intact with stops placed just under 1.9585 and profits at 1.9710 and 1.9760.

We will stay with this strategy for today. However should the support at 1.9600 fail there is scope for the GBP to correct back to 1.9495/1.9500 therefore our strategy will look to establish shorts just under 1.9585 with stops just above 1.9630, 50% profits 1.9565 and lower the stop to entry, the balance should be placed at 1.9515.
___________________________________________________________

Our strategy for the USD/JPY locked in profits at 117.55 and 117.15 from shorts taken at 117.85.

For this morning there is scope for a slight retracement to 117.20/30 and our strategy for today is to re establish shorts at 117.20 with stops placed just above 117.65, 50% profits should be placed at 116.85 and stops lowered to entry the balance should be placed at 116.45.
___________________________________________________________

Our strategy for Gold remains the same long at 660.50 with stops placed just under 650.00 and looking to raise the stop to entry on a break of 670.00.

For today our strategy is to establish longs into dips to 662.50 with the same stop parameters.
___________________________________________________________

Silver whilst is has shown some strength overnight still leaves us unconvinced and our strategy is to continue to sit tight.


Keep Smiling - Don't look back

Trading style: Chartist Artist _ Breakouts and Shakeouts.

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ingot54
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Friday, March 30, 2007 - 09:28 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



KEY NEWS TODAY: USA GMT

12:30 PM Personal Income FEB
12:30 PM Personal Spending MAR
12:30 PM PCE Deflator (YoY) FEB
12:30 PM PCE Core (MoM) FEB
12:30 PM PCE Core (YoY) FEB
1:45 PM Chicago Purchasing Manager MAR
2:00 PM Construction Spending MoM FEB
2:00 PM U. of Michigan Confidence MAR F
5:00 PM Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count 30-Mar


Keep Smiling - Don't look back

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ingot54
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Friday, March 30, 2007 - 09:39 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



The dollar rose against the yen overnight after revised data showed the U.S. economy grew at a faster pace in the fourth quarter of 2007 than initially reported.

The Commerce Department's final reading on GDP of 2.5 percent compared with the average economist estimate of 2.2 percent, which matched the government's reading last month.

The gross domestic product report showed the U.S. economy may be more resilient than many initially thought and supported growing expectations the Federal Reserve may hold
interest rates steady.

Core personal consumption, a price gauge tied to spending patterns and excluding food and energy, increased at a 1.8 percent rate, down from the initial estimate of 1.9 percent.

Even though fourth quarter GDP and core PCE were revised higher, the US dollar sold off against the Euro, British Pound, Australian, New Zealand and Canadian dollars.

The only currencies that it managed to strengthen against were the Japanese Yen and the Swiss Franc.

Stronger data all around has helped the Euro to rally. Improvements were seen in both the French and German labour markets.

German unemployment dropped by a much larger than expected 65k in the month of March, bringing the unemployment rate down from 9.3 percent to 9.2 percent while the French unemployment rate fell from 7.4 percent to 6.9 percent.

Retail sales in the region as a whole were also very strong as retail PMI expanded once again. The index rose from 49.8 to 53.4 thanks to improvements in both Germany and France.

The combination of higher inflationary pressures and stronger economic data paves the way for a further rate hike by the central bank.

UK data released this morning was mostly positive for the pound with both mortgage lending and approvals beating consensus.

The strength of data suggests that the previous three BOE rate hikes are having little effect on the housing sector as demand continues to rise. The results further indicate that, central bankers could still raise interest rates again this year.

Japanese Retail sales dropped by 0.9 percent, which was far larger than 0.5 percent drop that was initially expected. Most of the decline came from autos and gasoline sales which does provide an ounce of encouragement, but yesterday’s data only further validates the Bank of Japan’s hesitancy to raise rates again.

This has helped to keep carry trades in play as the Yen became the day’s worst performing currency pair.

The high-yielding New Zealand dollar stayed afloat today with the help of economic data that raised the prospects of additional monetary policy tightening by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand.

U.S. banks carried stocks to their biggest gain in a week after jobless claims unexpectedly fell, inflation eased and the economy grew more than economists had forecast.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Citigroup Inc. led the Dow Jones Industrial Average to its first advance this week and financial shares contributed the most to the Standard & Poor's 500 Index's rise.

Energy companies rallied, pushing Exxon Mobil Corp. to the highest this year, after oil prices surged above $66 a barrel. The Dow average gained 48.39, or 0.4 percent, to 12,348.75.

Crude oil rose above $66 a barrel in New York, closing at a six-month high, on concern that Iran's capture of 15 British sailors and marines increases the likelihood of a
disruption of shipments from the Persian Gulf. The 15 percent rise in crude prices has forced the US Federal Reserve to keep interest rates at 5.25 percent and warn that inflation risks will prevent them from cutting interest rates anytime soon.
___________________________________________________________

Our strategy for the Aud is still long from .8075 with stops placed at just under .8025, 50% profits should be placed at .8105 and the balance at .8125 and for today we're happy to stay with that strategy.
___________________________________________________________

A relatively tight range in the Eur leaves our strategy in place from Wednesday, that is long at 1.3340, stops should be placed just under 50% profits at 1.3375 and the stop raised to entry at this point, the balance should be placed at 1.3405.
___________________________________________________________

GBP held support at 1.9600 and leaves our strategy intact, that is long at 1.9655 with stops placed just under 1.9585, 50 profits placed at 1.9710 and 1.9760.

We are still a little wary of a break of support at 1.9600 as it has the potential to spark a sell off towards 1.9500.

Our strategy for the USD/JPY yesterday was closed out for a 40 point loss after a rally that proved much stronger than expected.

The move appears to be a little overdone for now, therefore there is potential for a correction back to 117.50/60 initially.

Our strategy for today is to short USD at current levels 117.95 stops should be placed just above 118.25 and profits placed at 117.60.
___________________________________________________________

We re happy to stay with our strategy for Gold and Silver, that is small long Gold at current levels with stops placed just under 650.00 raising the stop to entry on a break of 670.00.

Silver, we will keep a low profile again today.


Keep Smiling - Don't look back

Trading style: Chartist Artist _ Breakouts and Shakeouts.

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ingot54
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Post Number: 1774
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Economic News

USD
It has been a very important trading day for the Greenback yesterday as the US GDP has been published. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the total value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

GDP is the broadest measure of activity and the primary gauge of the economy's health. To foreign investors, a strong economy is viewed favorably because it spurs investment opportunities in the domestic stock and bond markets.

More importantly, the central bank is more likely to raise interest rates in the face of a strong and growing economy.

The combination of these effects can have a large impact on the demand for the nation's currency.

The figures were stronger than expected as the GDP Annualized Q/Q came in at 2.5% after 2.2% expectancy, and the Deflator came in inline with expectations of 1.7%.

To add to the positive sentiment, we saw the Jobless Claims drop to 308K, which also brings a brighter picture on the US labor market.
___________________________________________________________

As for today, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure is expected to be released at 12:30 GMT.

It is expected to come in a bit lower than last month's 0.3% at 0.2%. The Core PCE is a very important indicator for the nation's inflation, and will be closely scrutinized by traders today.
___________________________________________________________

The biggest new event coming from the US today is the Chicago PMI which is known to be a relatively large price shaker. It is expected to come in stronger than last month's 47.9 at 49.5.

That still not very good news for the US economy, as it does not indicate expansion.

It looks like the USD is going to continue to be quite indifferent to market events as it has been yesterday, and if no big surprises will happen, we should be seeing a calm price action all throughout the trading day.
___________________________________________________________

EUR
A relatively light day regarding news events yesterday caused no major movements for the EUR against the majors, as the only mentionable event was ECB president Trichet's speech.

As no radical moves took place, the EUR rally up could continue at a steady pace as it has been for quite a while now.
___________________________________________________________

There are several news events expected in the Euro-Zone today such as the German retail sales, French consumer confidence, French Producer prices, Euro-zone consumer confidence and Euro-zone unemployment.

Improvements are expected all around, which should continue to support the EUR.
___________________________________________________________

JPY
There was a flow of news that came from the Japanese market overnight, with mixed figures. The JPY Core CPI came in lower than expected at -0.2%, followed by a week Tokyo CPI at -0.1%.

The positive figure came in the form of the Overall Household Spending which came in much higher than expected at 1.3%.

The mixed data caused the JPY to strengthen a bit overnight and is floating around 117.50 against the USD.

That trend might be stopped if the US Chicago PMI comes out stronger than expected.
___________________________________________________________

Technical News

EUR/USD
The pair has been floating around 1.3350 and shows a steady rate for the up-trend. The daily charts are slightly bullish as the hourly studies are floating in neutral territory.

The movement appears to be up, yet it would probably be wiser to range trade today.
___________________________________________________________

GBP/USD
The pair has been moving in a wide range for quite a while now, and it peaked at 1.9655 overnight. The daily charts are slightly bearish, and the hourlies are entering overbought levels.

It looks as if the pair is floating into the upper side of the range, and we might see a break down for the bottom side of it.
___________________________________________________________

USD/JPY
It has been a choppy week for the pair as very volatile price action has been quite a routine for the USD/JPY.

The daily charts are bullish, as the hourlies are overbought. A preferable strategy for today might be buying on dips.
___________________________________________________________

USD/CHF
Choppy consolidation sums up this week's price action, within a 1.2230/1.2085 range.

Daily studies are bullish with neutral hourlies, which suggest that a trending move might be very close. Range trading using the hourlies might be preferable today.
___________________________________________________________

The Wild Card

GBP/NZD
The pair has been going through a massive downtrend for a long time now and shows no signs of stopping.

A very important support has been broken last week at 2.7520, which indicates that the momentum is only growing stronger which gives forex traders a great opportunity for a short position and swing away for further trend movement.


Keep Smiling - Don't look back

Trading style: Chartist Artist _ Breakouts and Shakeouts.

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ingot54
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The dollar declined on Friday after the U.S. government said it will impose duties on imports of coated paper from China, raising fears of protectionism between the two economic superpowers.

It's not clear what type of impact such measures will end up having on consumers and on the U.S. economy especially given the U.S. still needs a lot of investment from abroad, especially from Asia.

The dollar also came under pressure on the back of rumours that Washington had advised citizens in Bahrain to leave. That impact faded, however, when the White House said it was unaware of any such advisory.

The dollar had initially firmed on higher-than-expected U.S. core inflation data and a robust Midwest manufacturing survey.

That backed the view the Federal Reserve would be in no rush to cut interest rates.
___________________________________________________________

Though oil closed down slightly on Friday, crude prices had climbed before the Bahrain rumour as the dispute between Iran and Britain over captured Royal Navy personnel showed no signs of a quick resolution.

The UK and Iran tensions are on top of moves by the United States and other Western countries to pressure Iran into giving up its nuclear enrichment program.
___________________________________________________________

The yen was little changed before the Bank of Japan's quarterly Tankan survey, which may show confidence among Japan's largest manufacturers declined from the highest in two years.

The yen climbed on March 30, sealing the first quarterly gain in three against the dollar, as government reports showed household spending and industrial production were stronger than economists' forecasts, adding to pressure for the central bank to raise interest rates.

The quarterly Tankan survey, Japan's most closely watched gauge of business sentiment, will be released at 8:50 a.m. in Tokyo.
___________________________________________________________

U.S. stocks fell this week, sending the Dow Jones Industrial Average to its first quarterly loss in almost two years, after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said inflation remains his main concern even as evidence mounts that the economy is slowing.

The Dow industrials fell 1 percent to 12,354.35.
___________________________________________________________

Crude oil was little changed near a six-month high in New York amid heightened concerns about a possible disruption to oil shipments due to a stand-off between the U.K. and Iran over the capture of British naval personnel.

Crude oil for May delivery was at $65.65 a barrel, down 22 cents.
___________________________________________________________

The strategy for the AUD took profits at .8105 and .8125.

There is likely to be some consolidation ahead of this weeks Reserve Bank rate announcement.

Our strategy for today is to look to establish long Aud in a dip to .8085, stops should be placed just under .8038, 50 % profits should be placed at .8105 and stops raised to entry the balance should be placed at .8135.

Stops for the Eur strategy came very close with a low of 1.3287, for positions that survived 50% profits were taken at 1.3375, the balance at 1.3405 just missing out (high 1.3399) and is now close to be closed out at entry (1.3340).

There is scope for further pullback towards 1.3300/10 to test support, a failure here is likely to trigger a slide towards 1.3260.

For now resistance at 1.3400 seems formidable.

Our strategy is to trade the range from the long side that is, establishing longs at 1.3310 placing stops just under 1.3260, 50% profits should be placed at 1.3345 and stops raised to entry. The balance should be placed at 1.3390.
___________________________________________________________

Our strategy in the GBP was stopped out prior to the sharp rally to 1.9716. Should support now hold on the day at 1.9660 there is a strong chance of a retest of the resistance at 1.9715/25, which in turn should result in a rally to 1.9830.

Our strategy for today is to re-establish long GBP at 1.9660 with stops placed just under 1.9590, 50% profits should be placed at 1.9695 and stops raised to entry, the balance should be placed at 1.9835.
___________________________________________________________

The strategy in the USD/JPY closed out for small profits just ahead of the volatile swings seen in the NY session.

We expecting to see more volatility today and our strategy is to trade the range of 118.30 117.20, looking to short at 118.20 with stops just above 118.80 and looking to lock in profits at 117.60.

Longs should be placed at 117.30 with stops placed just under 116.90 and profits at 118.10.
___________________________________________________________
Our strategy is still in placed for the Gold that is long around 660.00 with stops placed just under 650.00 and looking to raise the stop on a break of 670.00.

Our strategy for Silver is square at the moment.


Keep Smiling - Don't look back

Trading style: Chartist Artist _ Breakouts and Shakeouts.

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ingot54
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Tuesday, April 03, 2007 - 10:44 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



From Sonray:

.
___________________________________________________________

The dollar held steady last night after reports showed growth in the U.S. manufacturing sector slowed in March but prices paid rose more than expected.

The report pointed to tepid growth in factory output and disappointed bulls looking for a repeat of Friday's Chicago PMI survey, which showed that Midwest manufacturing jumped to its highest early 2005 in the same month.

Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing index for the U.S. fell last month to 50.9 from 52.3 in February.

An index measuring prices manufacturers paid rose to 65.5 last month from 59, beating economists' forecast of 58.5, according to the report.

But the Institute for Supply Management's prices paid index, which measures inflationary pressures in manufacturing, climbed to its highest since August, cushioning the blow for the dollar.
___________________________________________________________

The ISM report was a preview for a number of big economic reports coming up this week, which will culminate on Friday with the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report, the most closely watched barometer of the health of the jobs market.
___________________________________________________________

Data yesterday showed an unexpectedly strong rise in Australian retail sales in February and has heightened expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia may raise interest rates tomorrow when the central bank is due to announce a rate decision.
___________________________________________________________

Yesterday’s Tankan survey, Japan's most closely watched gauge of business sentiment, showed manufacturer confidence fell to 23 points in March from a two-year high of 25 in December.

The survey also showed large companies plan to increase spending by 2.9 percent in the year that began April 1.
___________________________________________________________

U.S. stocks rose on the first trading day of what is traditionally the Dow Jones Industrial Average's best month, helped by more than $44 billion in takeovers.

Today's takeovers helped overshadow the economic data that showed a cooling economy isn't tempering inflation.

The Dow average added 27.95, or 0.2 percent, to 12,382.30.
___________________________________________________________

Crude oil was little changed close to $66 a barrel in New York as a standoff between the U.K. and Iran over the capture of British naval personnel bolstered concern that the flow of oil from the Middle East may be curbed.

Prices fell from the session's highs after Channel Four News reported that Iran's National Security Council chief, Ali Larijani, said his country does not see the "need for any trial" of the 15 U.K. sailors and marines captured by its forces on March 23.

Oil surged to a six-month high last week after the seizure of the Britons by Iran, the world's fourth biggest oil producer.
___________________________________________________________

Gold is steady but may rise on speculation that tensions with Iran could escalate after Cable News Network reported an American is missing in the country and on the break of any Crude supplies.
___________________________________________________________

AUD
The low of .8083 may not have been enough to set longs at .8085, but those that did would have taken profits at .8105 and .8125 ahead of a strong overnight rally that saw a high of .8180.

The rally was fed by stronger data and now expectations that the Reserve Bank may raise rates at tomorrow’s announcement.

For today there is minor support at .8160 and strong resistance at .8180.

Our strategy for today is to establish short AUD on a break under .8158 with stops placed just above .8185 looking to take profits on the day at .8128. There is likely to be some correction once the RBA decision is made.
___________________________________________________________

The EUR’s range was insufficient enough for us to get set after a fairly tight range of only 1.3332 to 1.3382.

On the day our strategy is to establish long EUR on a dip to 1.3365, stops should be placed just under 1.3330, 50% profits should be placed at 1.3395 and stops raised to entry at this point the balance should be placed at 1.3465.
___________________________________________________________

The low in the GBP of 1.9661 was just shy of our strategy to buy at 1.9660 and so we missed out on the strong rally to 1.9800.

Today there is likely to be a small retracement.

Our strategy therefore is to establish short GBP on a break of 1.9758, placing stops just above 1.9800 looking to lock in profits at 1.9720.
___________________________________________________________

Our strategy to trade the USD/JPY 117.30/118.20 also just missed out as the range was only 117.39/118.06.

A break above last nights high at 118.03 is likely to see a rally towards 118.35/40 and from the 119.10/15, on the downside a break of 117.50 will see minor support at 117.20 ahead of a deeper decline towards 116.70.

Our strategy for today is to trade the break of either side keeping stops tight and looking to lock in profits at 118.35 or 117.15.
___________________________________________________________

No change to our strategy in the Gold and Silver: that is out of Silver for the moment and long Gold at 660.00 with stops under 650.00 and raising the stops to entry on a break of 670.00.


Keep Smiling - Don't look back

Trading style: Chartist Artist _ Breakouts and Shakeouts.

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ingot54
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5.30pm Wednesday 4th April
________________________________________________________________________________ ________

Economic News

USD
The greenback has been appreciating a bit against the majors in the last 24 hours, as traders are trying to push it a bit higher before the end of the week, mainly due to the hawkish comments from Federal Reserve's Poole regarding a possible rate cut.

The biggest issue this week will probably be the US labor market, as traders look ahead to this month's job reports, which includes the Unemployment Rate and the always attractive Non-farm Payrolls report.

The forecast for the jobs report is very high in relation to last month's numbers, and stands at 125K after coming in at 97K last month.
________________________________________________________________________________ ________
There are two major news events expected today in the US Market, the ADP Non-farm Employment Change and the ISM Non manufacturing index.

The ADP Index is considered to be the best forecasting tool for the Non-farm Payrolls as it measures the exact same sector of the Non-farm employment change.

Last month expectations were not correct and stood at 57K with an actual figure of 97K. This month's expected figure is 125K, and is exactly the same as the expectation for the NFP.

The ISM Non Manufacturing Index which measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the services sector is expected to come in slightly higher than last month's 54.3 at 54.8.

It looks as if the expectations from the US market are relatively high this week, and if all actual figures will be released inline with expectations we might see a local rebound for the Greenback.
________________________________________________________________________________ ________
EUR
The Euro-Zone PPI which was released inline with expectations at 0.3 and the lack of any other interesting information from Europe caused the EUR/USD to be bound to a range for most of the European trading session.

Today would probably look a bit different as there are several news events expected from Europe.

The first news event is the German Services PMI which is expected to come in a bit higher than last month at 57.5.

Following this will be the release of the Euro-Zone Services PMI with expectations of 57.6, also a bit higher than last month.

The most important piece of information that is expected to come from Europe today would be the Euro-Zone Retail sales at 10:00 GMT.

The Retail Sales figure is expected to boost up to 1.0% after coming in very low last month at -1.0%, and might create a local bullish push for the EUR if it releases inline with expectations.
________________________________________________________________________________ ________
JPY
The JPY has been rallying down since the beginning of March, putting carry trades back in motion.

The only important piece of information that was released from the Japanese market yesterday was the monetary base which came in higher than expected at -19.1% after expectations of -22.0%.

The report did not affect the downtrend so much as the JPY went down further.

The ongoing JPY weakening has raised the issue of whether the Japanese economy will be discussed during next week's G7 meeting, and maybe put some positive energy into the weak currency.

As a whole it looks like the JPY will be submitted to external price movers, which will culminate in the shape of Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls.
________________________________________________________________________________ ________
Technical News

EUR/USD
The 4 hour slow stochastic is crossing at 20, building strength to try and test the resistance at 1.3373 once more, however a failure to gain momentum for a new high will drive this pair backwards to the first retracement.
________________________________________________________________________________ ________

GBP/USD
Hourly charts are mixed when the RSI is at 70 and the slow stochastic is crossing at 20 .

However on the daily chart we can see a near breakout of the 1.9872 resistance level that was tested earlier today. Support level is located at 1.9723 which may offer a tight range today.
________________________________________________________________________________ ________

USD/JPY
The 4H chart is showing us that the aggressive bullish trend has come to an end, where the RSI is at 85 and slow stochastic at 95, calling for the bears to come, so get ready for them .
________________________________________________________________________________ ________

USD/CHF
The 4H RSI 77 and slow stochastic crossing at 88 suggests that a bearish trend is knocking on the door .

Support level is located at 1.2160 which may suggest an attractive target for traders today.
________________________________________________________________________________ ________

The Wild Card

GBP/JPY
This forex pair has reached the heavy resistance level at 235.08 and failed to break upwards.

It also reached the upper Bollinger band on the 2H chart. The major long term trend is still up even though last week came with a rather bearish correction.

Today we expect a slightly bearish behavior as hourlies oscillators imply an upcoming bearish trend


Keep Smiling - Don't look back

Trading style: Chartist Artist _ Breakouts and Shakeouts.

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ingot54
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Important news releases for today GMT:

.


Keep Smiling - Don't look back

Trading style: Chartist Artist _ Breakouts and Shakeouts.

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ingot54
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The dollar fell overnight after data showing growth in the U.S. service sector slid to a four-year low in March, reinforcing a view that the U.S. economy is weakening.

The dollar neared a two-year low against the euro after the Institute for Supply Management's non-manufacturing index fell to 52.4 in March, Wall Street had been expecting a reading of 54.7. Even though figures above 50 indicate expansion.

The dollar had earlier trimmed some losses after Iran said it is going to release 15 British sailors and Marines held captive for more than a week, but those gains were quickly erased after the ISM data.

But ahead of Friday's U.S. non-farm payrolls report and Thursday's Bank of England decision, the follow-through reaction will be muted especially given that most markets will be closed for the Easter weekend.

The Labor Department is expected to report U.S. employers added 133,000 nonfarm jobs in March, up from 97,000 a month earlier, according to Wall Street forecasters.
_____________________________________________________________________________

There are some expectations that the Bank of England may raise interest rates a quarter percentage point on this evening, which would bring them above the U.S. federal funds rate and possibly boost the value of the GBP.
_____________________________________________________________________________

The day's biggest winner was the Australian dollar, which rallied 0.7 percent to its highest in more than 10 years against the U.S. dollar, erasing earlier losses made after the Reserve Bank of Australia held rates steady at 6.25 percent.

The AUD setback was short-lived as traders correctly assume the RBA rate hike is only delayed, not taken off the table.
_____________________________________________________________________________

Traders said volume was thin in the lead up to the Easter holiday weekend, with many market players preferring to stick to the sidelines ahead of Friday's jobs report.

U.S. technology shares sent the Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq Composite Index to their fifth consecutive gain on an improved profit forecast for Microsoft Corp.

Shares of the world's biggest software maker rose the most in two weeks after Citigroup Investment Research said increased demand for Microsoft's Windows Vista operating system bolstered earnings last quarter.
_____________________________________________________________________________

The overnight data showing that expansion in service industries and factory orders slowed failed to put a dent in the weeklong rally.

The Dow industrials added 19.75, or 0.2 percent, to 12,530.05.
_____________________________________________________________________________

Oil for May delivery fell 26 cents, or 0.4 percent to settle at $64.38 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Gold and silver prices rose in New York on speculation that a decline in the dollar will increase the appeal of precious metals as an alternative to the U.S. currency. Gold surged after Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said Iran "will never accept" any trespass into its territory, even as he pledged to release 15 captured U.K. sailors and marines.
_____________________________________________________________________________

Our strategy from Wednesday set shorts at .8160 and took profits at .8128 to be square for yesterdays RBA announcement. The resulting price action subsequently stopped out many longs ahead of the strong rally as the market came to the realization that the RBA rate hike may just postponed for the moment.

We re expecting a relatively quiet day for the local session ahead of the Easter break and the release of the US Non Farm payrolls on Friday night in what will be a very thin market could cause a bout of extreme volatility or nothing at all.
_____________________________________________________________________________

So our strategy for today see’s potential for small correction if .8180 support fails there is minor support at .8160 ahead of support at .8145, for today the strategy is to sell AUD on a trade just under .8177, stops should be placed just above .8200 with profits lowered to entry on a trade under .8160 and profits placed at .8150.

Our strategy from there is to establish long AUD at .8150 with stops placed just under .8100, 50% profits should be placed at .8185 with stops raised to entry at this point and the balance of profits placed at .8215.
____________________________________________________________________

Our strategy for the EUR was stopped out for a 25 point loss. The 1.3380/85 resistance is proving quite resilient and probably extends to 1.3400 and leaves our strategy thinking that trading the approach to 1.3300 to 1.3400 range may the play for today, stops should be placed at just under 1.3270 and just above 1.3425. Being aware that tomorrow’s session may end in a bout of volatility.
________________________________________________________________

Our strategy for the GBP went short at 1.9755 and took profits at 1.9720. We’re expecting a relatively quite session ahead of tonight’s Bank of England rate announcement.

Our strategy for today is to wait for a break of 1.9780 where we will look to establish long GBP with stops just under 1.9730, 50 % profits should be placed at 1.9810 and stops raised to entry at this point, the balance should be placed at 1.9860.

On the downside our strategy is to establish short GBP on a break of 1.9715, with stops placed just above 1.9765, with profits at 1.9665.
______________________________________________________________

USDJPY
A break of 118.60 is likely to see a correction back owards 118.35/40 ahead of the next test of 119.00/10 which in turn if broken should open up potential for a rally to 120.50/60.

Our strategy for today is to establish long USD against JPY at 118.40 with stops placed just under 117.80, 50% profits should be placed at 118.90 and stops raised to entry the balance of profits should be placed at 119.35.
________________________________________________________________

Our Gold strategy has now raised stops to entry at 660.50, for fresh positions our strategy now views any dip to 668.00 as an opportunity to establish longs with stops just under 660.00.
________________________________________________________________

Our Silver strategy is still square, on the short term the price action appears a little overdone and therefore we may see a small correction back towards 13.45 where our strategy would look to establish longs with stops now placed just under 13.10, 50% profits should be placed at 13.65 and the stop raised to entry.

(Message edited by ingot54 on April 05, 2007)


Keep Smiling - Don't look back

Trading style: Chartist Artist _ Breakouts and Shakeouts.

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ingot54
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Current movements:

.


Keep Smiling - Don't look back

Trading style: Chartist Artist _ Breakouts and Shakeouts.

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ingot54
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Economic News

USD
Yesterday the service sector ISM index, which measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the services sector, dropped to 52.4 in comparison to last month's reading of 54.3, but since the reading was above 50, the reversal effect on the USD was not triggered.

However, the ADP Non Farm Employment Change released at 106K when in fact, the market expected 125K.

The increase in the ADP release for March compared to the Feb release gives us a hint that this Friday's NFP will be higher than 150K and will give some push to the US economy.

In recent years, forecasting payrolls has been nothing more than an educated guessing game, but this time, enough stars are lining up in favor of a strong report.

In the meantime, high oil prices will keep inflation a concern. This predicament gives the Feds no choice but to leave interest rates unchanged at 5.25%, which will keep carry trades in play for the time being.

The market expects a strong payrolls number to indicate that economic growth is chugging along. If the scenario happens it will take the dollar to higher ground.

If payrolls fall short of expectations and there are no revisions to save it, do not be surprised to hear the market question whether the Fed is doing the right thing by keeping rates steady and not considering a rate cut.

The overall sentiment of the USD is biased to the downside; however the market will keep cautious before the US Labor Department releases March NFP report this Friday.
___________________________________________________________________________

EUR
Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc's European PMI services index fell marginally to 57.4 in March from February's 57.5.

In contrast to the service sector in the US, the service sector in the Euro zone actually saw faster growth in the month of March. Services growth accelerated in Germany and France.

However, Unemployment in the EMU fell to a record low and consumer confidence rose to a 6-year high. Also German manufacturing orders rose a stronger-than-expected 3.9% m/m in February following January's 0.3% m/m decline.

The impact of the Value Added Tax on Germany and the Euro zone as a whole continues to be limited. This keeps a rate hike by the European Central Bank in play as overall estimates remain hawkish.
____________________________________________________________________________

Tomorrow the BoE will finish its two day meeting with an interest rate announcement expected later today, with a 40% chance priced in for a rate hike by the BoE plenty of market interest will surround the announcement.
____________________________________________________________________________

JPY
The JPY was mixed today with the currency rising against the USD and GBP but falling against commodities currencies like the AUD and NZD.

The global interest in carry trades and levels of risk aversion will remain very important in the short term.

While confidence in the global economy remains strong, the YEN will remain vulnerable to capital outflows on yield grounds with renewed interest in using the yen as a global funding currency.

Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Muto said nothing new about the central bank's monetary policy. He indicated that rates will be adjusted as the economy expands but will still remain low for some time which might imply strength of the Japanese economy which can be reflected in the JPY.
____________________________________________________________________________

Technical News
EUR/USD

On the 4 H chart we can see a bullish head and shoulders which may imply a breakout of the 1.3400 resistance level.

The daily trend is clearly up, however the RSI and Slow Stochastic are sailing in the neutral territory.
____________________________________________________________________________

GBP/USD
When the 4 H RSI and Slow Stochastic are neutral combined with the MACD at 0.0016 there is range trading expected.

It seems that the GBP is gathering new momentum for testing the 1.9800 resistance level.
____________________________________________________________________________
USD/JPY
The USD recovered 100 pips from couple a days ago after touching the 117.69 and boosting to 119.08 and now reversing to 118.70.

RSI is at 70 forming an upward reversal on the 4 hour chart where the next significant barrier is located at 119.26, however the volatility on the daily charts has dropped.
____________________________________________________________________________

USD/CHF
This pair has come back up from yesterday's low of 1.2084 to 1.2232 and has been trading a tight range in the last 8 hours, daily slow stochastic is at 73 and RSI is at 65 with a neutral behavior.
____________________________________________________________________________

The Wild Card

GBP/JPY
In this forex pair we can see on the daily chart a classic pattern of the 5 Elliot waves which was started from March the 5th and during the coming weeks should complete the A ,B ,C bearish waves that would take this pair down.

RSI and Slow Stochastic on their way to overbought territory.

4 H chart is bearish and no signs of reversal is observed.


Keep Smiling - Don't look back

Trading style: Chartist Artist _ Breakouts and Shakeouts.

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ingot54
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Forex: Friday Morning 6/4/07: Low volumes in forex markets did not lead to abnormal volatility, with the USD benefiting from short covering ahead of the NFP data.

The CME payroll derivatives auction settled at 121.6k this morning (below estimates), and analyst estimates range from +70K (BNP Paribas) to +240K (Citi).

The AUD/USD consolidated near 0.8200, with technical analysts saying that the risk of a pull back remains as bearish divergence conditions are seen on 4hrs charts.

The NZD traded slightly lower, with markets pricing in a 36% chance of a RBNZ rate hike at the April 26 meeting vs. 22% priced in after the March 8 meeting (Credit Suisse Index).

Japanese Finance Minister Omi said that he does not expect a specific JPY debate at the G7 meeting, adding that the G7 will discuss "various currencies".

The CNY was set at a new post-revaluation high against the USD after the PBoC hiked the reserve ratio.

The USD/CHF continued to consolidate, with technical analysts saying a break of 1.2082 support is needed to signal such consolidation has ended.

Both the Thai Baht and the Korean Won gained on improving risk appetite, equity gains and Chinese tightening.


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ingot54
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http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20602059&sid=aEL0brUsXw80&refer=movers_by _index

This is an interesting look at China right now.

Growth of 11% last quarter equates to 44% annualised (simplified by me - I don't have immediate access to the previous 3 quarters to do it mathematical justice).

Also inflation rose to 2.7% from 2.2% so they are going to cap inflation at 3%. That looks like another rates rise in the offing.

But Chinese economists and bankers think outside the square of the Western model.

While all central banks have the tool of raising the reserve, most choose to allow their currencies to appreciate.

Not China.

The deposit-reserve ratio, the amount banks must hold rather than lend, will rise by 0.5 percentage point to 10.5 percent starting April 16, the People's Bank of China said today. That matches the size of the previous five increases.

"China's expansion is spurring demand for raw materials such as copper, steel and oil needed to build skyscrapers, bridges and cars.

Morgan Stanley Chief Economist Stephen Roach estimates China accounted for about 50 percent of the gain in metals and oil during the past four years.


Failure to curb investment in factories, real estate and other fixed assets may lead to overcapacity and falling prices, turning China's economic expansion into a "curse" the Asian Development Bank said in a report last week.

The central bank uses reserve requirements, interest rates and treasury bill sales to soak up cash from a trade surplus that reached $177.5 billion last year. The trade surplus surged ninefold in February from a year earlier to $23.8 billion, the second-highest on record.

Told you it is interesting ... read the entire article (link at top) - I'm thinking another rates rise is likely as inflation over 3% would be an unprecedented disaster for China this year.

They are going so well, and I doubt they will allow the white-ants to destroy their new economic expansion with incumbent benefits to their nation in this 21st Century.


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ingot54
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Great news from the USA:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aXcAZ7.MULm0&refer=us

Highlights:

Stronger employment ... building industry employment rises 56,000 after dropping 61,000 the previous month ... 180,000 increase in employment, the most in three months ... plentiful jobs and bigger paychecks are giving more people the means to spend, preventing the housing recession from spreading to the rest of the economy ... "The Fed isn't going to move rates any time this year" ... builders increased hiring ... average weekly hours increased to 33.9 from 33.7 ...


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ingot54
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This explains the rise in the USD:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=ac_fiVN04v.w&refer=us

Dollar Advances From Two-Year Low as Jobs Report Beats Forecast

The dollar rose 0.44 percent to $1.3370 per euro at 11:41 a.m. in New York. It was the biggest gain since March 5. The dollar fell yesterday to $1.3442, the lowest since March 2005. The dollar rose 0.49 percent to 119.32 yen.

This is the bit I am very interested in:

The dollar also strengthened against the yen on speculation signs of U.S. economic strength will encourage investors to buy higher-yielding assets financed by borrowing in Japan, a practice known as the carry trade.

"The dollar is going strong, and we'll see people taking on more risk" said Brian Taylor, chief currency trader in Buffalo, New York, at Manufacturers & Traders Trust.

"They'll be putting on more carry trades as we speak. It's going to be hard to stop the yen's decline."

Euro - Yen Decline

The euro rose 0.05 percent to 159.50 yen, after touching 159.69, an all-time high. The 13-country euro began trading in January 1999.

The implied volatility of a one-month dollar-yen option fell to 8 percent, the lowest since Feb. 26, the day before a global stock market rout led to an unwinding of some carry trades. Low volatility reduces the risk of carry trades by making profits more predictable.


If you read the articles I posted earlier regarding China and their heating economy and their efforts to contain growth and inflationary forces; then apply this news against that background, I believe we have a scenario matching that of February 27th 2007 all over again.

Announcements out of China and Japan will be critical to currency traders this month. Just as we saw the AUD react when the interest rates were kept on hold, I believe the Yuan and Yen will both have significant appreciation forces applied before the month is out.

With the YEN at recent lows, and the G& meeting looming, it is a lay-down misére that there will be moves to strengthen the YEN before June.

I say "before June" because in the past there have been few policy moves which cause volatile market reaction, and these things should be played out in an orderly manner, allowing for gradual appreciation of the YEN rather than a violent ^% one-day move.

Please post any news items supporting or refuting my "theory" as the more +/- views we can dig up the better informed and prepared we can be for announcements.

When do the BOJ and PBC (Chinese Central Bank) have their meetings?


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ingot54
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SOME IMPORTANT DIRECTION HERE TODAY

During low volume trading in Monday, the dollar extended its gains against most of the major crosses after last Friday's surprisingly strong US employment data. The report showed the US economy unexpectedly added 180,000 jobs in March and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.5% to 4.4%.

After strengthening to below 1.34 against the euro on Friday, the dollar today rallied further to 1.3341.
_____________________________________________________________________________

The sterling dipped below 1.96 versus the dollar. Trading was slow overnight as most European markets were closed for Easter Monday.

The upbeat payrolls eased concerns about slowing down of the US economy and
suggested inflation pressures may persist. With weakening housing market and
unconstrained inflation, the Fed is not likely to cut interest rates or raise them in the near term. The best the Fed can do for now is nothing, leaving the rates unchanged at 5.25%.
_____________________________________________________________________________

In contrast, the ECB may have two more rate hikes based on sound fundamentals in the euro zone. Therefore, we perceive the dollar rally against the euro is short lived and the euro will regain its strength when the trading volume is back to normal.

Consumers are more optimistic and inflation is accelerating in Germany, Europe's largest economy, data last week showed.

The ECB on March 8 raised its forecast for euro-region growth in 2007 to about 2.5 percent, from 2.2 percent previously. Interest-rate futures show traders increased bets the ECB will increase borrowing costs this year to at least 4 percent from 3.75 percent currently.
_____________________________________________________________________________

The dollar is hovering above 119 versus the yen this morning.

The yen is under pressure as the Bank of Japan is very likely to announce that it will keep its interest rates at 0.5% after the 2 day monetary policy meeting concludes today. The announcement is expected around 3.30 GMT.

Some traders may be reluctant to sell the yen any further ahead of the Group of Seven leading industrialized nations meets in Washington, starting April 13. At the group's last meeting in February, G-7 central bankers and finance ministers warned against excessive bets against the yen. The European Central Bank will meet April 12.

Wall Street ended an erratic session essentially flat as investors grew anxious about upcoming first-quarter earnings and the possibility that interest rates won't be declining anytime soon.
____________________________________________________________________________

A $2 drop in oil prices lent support to the major indexes. The Dow industrials increased 8.94, or 0.1 percent, to 12,569.14.

Crude oil plunged $2.77 a barrel in New York, the biggest decline in three months, on speculation that an Energy Department report will show U.S. inventories jumped last week.
_____________________________________________________________________________

The United Nations Security Council gave Iran 60 days from March 24 to suspend enrichment after Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said today that his country has begun enriching uranium on an industrial scale, stepping up defiance against the United Nations.

Iran has already ignored three UN deadlines to shut down production of the nuclear fuel.
_____________________________________________________________________________

Our strategy for the AUD is currently long at .8150 with stops just under .8100, 50% profits at .8185 with stops raised to entry at this point and the balance taken at .8215.

There is potential for a decline to .8090/95 on a break of .8140 therefore we will now raise our stop on longs to just under .8135.

Our strategy will then look to re establish long AUD at .8115 with stops placed just under .8060, 50% profits should be placed at .8145 and the stop raised to entry at this point, the balance of profits should be placed at .8175.
_____________________________________________________________________________

Even though EUR had a spike to 1.3440 it is back below the resistance we spoke of last week at 1.3380 and a break of 1.3340 will likely trigger a decline towards 1.3300. Our strategy for an intra day trade is to short EUR on a break of 1.3340 with stops placed just above 1.3380 and profits at 1.3305, lowering the stop loss to entry on a trade under 1.3320.
_____________________________________________________________________________

Our strategy in the GBP went short on the break of 1.9715 and locked in profits at 1.9665. GBP is approaching critical support at 1.9580/90 - the daily charts suggest that a failure here could see a much deeper correction develop towards 1.9450/60.

Intra-day there is some potential for a small pullback to 1.9650/60 and our strategy is to establish short GBP at 1.9650 with stops placed just above 1.9715, 50 %. Profits should be placed at 1.9605 and stops lowered to entry at this point. The balance of profits should be placed at 1.9565.
_____________________________________________________________________________

There is significant resistance in the USD/JPY at 119.40/50. If it breaks there is likely to be a rally extending to 120.10/15 with potential now towards 121.20.


Our strategy for today is to re establish long USD against the JPY at 119.10 with stops placed just under 118.50, 50%. Profits should be placed at 119.45 with stops then raised to entry. The balance should be placed at 119.90.
_____________________________________________________________________________

We’re happy to stay with our strategy in Gold from last week. That is, longs from 660.50 with stops at entry.

For new positions our strategy is to look to establish longs in dips towards 668.00 with stops just under 660.00.

Silver we’re still square. The dip we were looking for to 13.45 only managing a low of 13.59. Our strategy here is to stay with the trade. That is, buying into a dip to 13.45 with stops placed just under 13.10.


Keep Smiling - Don't look back

Trading style: Chartist Artist _ Breakouts and Shakeouts.

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ingot54
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Tuesday, April 10, 2007 - 11:10 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



News today:

news


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ingot54
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Tuesday, April 10, 2007 - 08:11 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Economic News

USD
After significantly strengthening all across the board last Friday on the back of an unexpected rise in March's Non Farm Payrolls, the USD returned trending lower overnight, as Asian traders retuned to their desks.

Friday's employment report revealed a very strong US labor market which added 180K new jobs during the month of March, beating market estimates of a130K rise. Moreover, historical revisions also contributed to the report's bullish sentiment, and the average work week, which rose to 33.9 from an upwardly revised 33.8 previous reading, did that even more.

From the perspective of inflationary pressures, average hourly earnings rose 0.3% MoM and 4.0% YoY, while average weekly earnings rose 0.6% MoM and 4.4% YoY.

The report was all positive for the USD, and probably the most surprising component of the report was the 56K jobs the construction sector has added, a sector that has been under much scrutiny lately due to the concerns raised by the recent crisis in the sub prime mortgage market.

The report prompted a knee jerk appreciation of USD, pushing the EURUSD and the GBPUSD down 60 pips - down to 1.3360 and 1.9630, respectively. Considering how positively surprising the report was, this was a rather tame reaction which could be explained mainly by the low liquidity conditions prevailing due to Easter's Good Friday.

In fact, as US traders returned to their desks yesterday, they've managed to push the USD slightly higher, trading the EURUSD for 1.3340 and the GBPUSD below 1.97. Nevertheless, as markets elsewhere were closed for Easter, price action lacked the momentum required to take the USD even higher.

During the overnight Asian session, however, the USD resumed its sell-off which was mainly driven by the rise in oil prices and the concerns raised by the 5mln barrels drop in gasoline reserves ahead of the summer driving season.

As for 06:00GMT, the USD traded around 1.3420 vs. the EUR, 1.9690 vs. the GBP and 119.00 vs. the JPY.
___________________________________________________________________________

Today lacks any significant economic release from the US, and the currency is expected to continue trading at its current levels, waiting for the release of the Federal Open Market Committee Minutes - the protocol of the last FOMC interest rate meeting, which can provide the markets with a better idea regarding the Fed's state of mind.

EUR
Yesterday, most European markets were closed for Easter, causing the EUR to trade in a relatively tight range against most currencies. Overnight, however, the currency was taken higher against the USD, an appreciation driven mainly by USD weakness rather than by EUR strength.

The only release from Europe today is the German Trade Balance which is expected at 0.8Bln from last month's 16.2 Bln reading.

Nevertheless, the EUR is not expected to experience any significant price action as traders will prefer seating on the sidelines ahead of the major event of this week - the European Central Bank interest rate decision expected this Thursday.

While the interest rate is widely expected to remain at 3.75%, markets are awaiting comments by ECB governor Trichet in the accompanying press conference. Trichet is known for signaling the markets very clearly before an intended monetary tightening, usually by the use of the words "strong vigilance" in his speech.

Markets are expecting an additional rate hike later this quarter and a return to a hawkish rhetoric by Trichet will pretty much confirm market expectations. Till then, the EUR is likely to continue hovering around its current levels, basing itself around 1.34 vs. the USD.
___________________________________________________________________________

JPY
The Bank of Japan decided to leave its benchmark interest rate at 0.5% for the second consecutive month, a move that was widely expected by the market due to the Japanese economy's slow recovery.

Moreover, when taking into account the tame inflation readings along with the fragile Personal Consumption, it seems very likely that the BOJ might delay tightening even further. As long as the BOJ does not signal additional rate hikes, it is likely that carry trades will remain the theme, which in turn paves the way for additional JPY weakness.

Technical News
EUR/USD
The pair is consolidating at a very high level of 1.3420, and the daily charts are accumulating buying momentum again. Key resistance level is set to 1.3445 where a break above will take this pair to new yearly high.

GBP/USD
Support level at 1.9600 held firm and gave the price a bullish bounce to the current price level at 1.9692, 4 hour indicators are extremely bullish indicating a continuation of the upward reversal.

USD/JPY
This pair's price level failed to break above 119.35 and reversed back to 118.98; 4 hours indicators are mixed 4 hour RSI is clearly bearish at 60 facing downwards while Momentum is neutral at 100.29 and 4 hour slow stochastic is also neutral at 40.

USD/CHF
This pair has tipped the 1.2282 high yesterday and reversed downwards to 1.2205 with a clear bearish behavior, 4 hour RSI is at 60 - down from 100 and slow stochastic is at 60, continuing to push price levels downward at the moment.
____________________________________________________________________________

I don't understand what currency is being discussed below. The AUDUSD is as high as .8250.1 tonight (so far).

The Wild Card AUD/USD
Forex traders be aware, strong resistance level is set to 1.0660 where 4 hour indicators are bearish, RSI is at 60 dropping from a high of 80 and Momentum is at 100.27. Traders should expect a continuation of the bearish behavior marking the next target price level at 1.0400.


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stocky
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SYDNEY (Dow Jones)--The Australian dollar climbed to its highest level in almost 17 years Tuesday driven by a host of factors including a A$17.3 billion corporate takeover, traders said.

Strong copper prices, a weaker U.S. dollar and news that Mexico's Cemex SA raised its bid for Australian building materials company Rinker Group Ltd. lifted the Australian dollar sharply through the day.

Government bond prices closed lower in line with U.S. Treasurys, which sank on news Friday of a much stronger-than-expected non-farm payrolls increase of 180,000.

At 0600 GMT, the Australian dollar was trading at US$0.8234 having reached a high of US$0.8242 earlier in trading, it's highest level since September 1990. The local unit opened the session Tuesday around US$0.8160 having closed last Thursday, ahead of a four-day weekend, at US$0.8182.

Against the yen it was trading at Y97.92, up from Y97.03 about the same time Thursday.

Tony Morriss, senior currency strategist at ANZ, said the post-holiday surge was also the result of pent-up yield-driven demand in a thin market.

The Australian dollar was back in demand despite the fact that IMM net long Australian-dollar speculative positioning approached record levels last week.
"It's all a bit strange," Morriss said. "It looks overbought."

Morriss said the Rinker bid nevertheless further lifted the mood in the market.

"While it would appear premature to expect the large flows behind the deal to hit the currency market so soon, early buying prompted by the news triggered a round of stop-loss buying," he said.

There was no major economic data released through the day, but two second-tier activity surveys returned strong results for March.

Both the National Australia Bank's business survey and the ANZ Job ads survey in March suggested conditions in the economy were strong enough to keep an interest rate hike on the cards.

The policy-making board of the Reserve Bank of Australia met last week but kept the official cash rate at a 6-year high of 6.25%. Economists say a hike in May can't be ruled out.

Both business conditions and confidence turned down in March, albeit from robust levels, according to the NAB survey.

The NAB's business conditions index fell 1 point to +17 points in March from February while its business confidence index dropped 2 points to +10 points.
Wages growth remained strong in March recording an annual growth rate of 5.25%, enough to keep the central bank on alert, NAB warned.

"A real concern going forward is the still high rates of capacity utilization and the probability that wages inflation will remain at elevated levels for some considerable period," Alan Oster, NAB's chief economist said.

"It is getting harder to argue that wages are still relatively well behaved...the RBA could still surprise by moving back into action by midyear," he added.

The next major data for financial markets is first quarter inflation data April 24. Any hint of an uptick in inflation will prompt expectations of a May rate hike to rise sharply.

(Data provided by Reuters)


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ingot54
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Economic News

USD
Yesterday the Federal Open Market Committee released the Minutes from its March 21st meeting and although the Minutes say 'further policy firming might prove necessary,' uncertainties in growth and inflation make it nearly impossible to raise rates and most likely, in the best case, the Fed will leave rates unchanged at 5.25% for the next 6 months.

The current situation will not support the USD against the GBP EUR and AUD whose central banks are expected to raise rates at least more once this year.

This is a carry seeking world and for the time being, there are more attractive carry opportunities elsewhere.

Also the US monthly Budget Deficit increased from -85.3 billion to -96.3 billion marking a new record and much worse then expected.

With U.S. growth slowing and the threat of a recession still not eradicated the budget deficit could grow into a mammoth problem over the coming years.

Looking ahead, we are only expecting jobless claims and import prices today which are not big market movers and the market expects a further decline of the USD in the near term.
____________________________________________________________________________
EUR
Today's Interest rate decision is expected to leave rates unchanged at 3.75% however even more important is the speech of ECB President Trichet, who is expected to support a continuation of the hawkish behavior in the Euro- Zone and a further rise in the EUR interest rates in the near future.

However, there is a possibility that the central bank President could also take a more dovish stance, due to the fact that the EUR/USD is trading less than 1% away from its all-time high.

As an export dependent region, the Euro-zone is particularly sensitive to the value of the EUR. Ongoing solid growth along with ample liquidity conditions in the Euro zone nevertheless pushed ECB rate hike expectations higher.

The Euribor strip curve currently attatches a probability of 60% that rates will rise to 4.25% at the end of the year. A repetition that the ECB will continue to 'very close monitor' all developments would signal that the ECB is still on track to hike rates in June to 4%.

Markets will look for some hints how high rates may rise this cycle.
____________________________________________________________________________
JPY
Yesterday the Japanese March Corporate Goods Price Index saw a rather surprising +0.3% rise MoM and 2.0% YoY. Forecasts had looked for numbers closer to +0.1% and +1.9% respectively.

Of course the figures are driven by the oil prices which have begun to pick up from the sharp dip seen in January and this could well continue with oil prices rising again this month.

Whether this fuels prices further is uncertain given the caution that business have over raising prices but the basis for the push is still there. The weakness in the Yen over the past few weeks reflects the market's belief that the Bank of Japan will not stand in the way of carry trades.

Deflation is rearing its ugly head again as the latest consumer price figures from Tokyo report their first drop since May of 2006. This may be temporary, but even if it is, the central bank will find it difficult to justify a rate hike in an environment where inflation is falling and retail sales remains weak.

The JPY is expected to remain calm today - and might even regain some of the recent losses, due to a lack of economic data.
_____________________________________________________________________________
Technical News

EUR/USD
Strong resistance has been noticed at 1.3466 and further up at 1.3500, however indicators are rather bearish when 4H RSI is at 79 facing downwards, momentum is at 100.79, and slow stochastic is at 82. A Range trading between 1.3420 and 1.3500 is more likely.
____________________________________________________________________________
GBP/USD
When the mighty resistance 1.9800 was tested it seemed that an upcoming bearish trend was expected. A head and shoulders pattern is established and also a doji is observed on the 4 H chart and implying a signal of bearishness.
____________________________________________________________________________
USD/JPY
We notice a channel on the hourlies charts which stands between 117.70 to 119.34 those boundaries were broken in the overnight session and now pointing at 119.45 ,this level implies on bullish trend till 119.70 (Fibonacci) and then a reversal trend is expected which will test the 119.20 support level.
____________________________________________________________________________
USD/CHF
This pair has come back up from yesterday's low of 1.2174 to 1.2207 earlier today and has been trading a tight range in the last 8 hours, daily slow stochastic is at 50 and RSI is at 57 with a neutral behavior.
____________________________________________________________________________
The Wild Card

NZD/USD
This forex forex pair has been in a tight channel of 0.7172 - 0.7296 and now the low barrier is to be tested since of a bearish head and shoulders pattern is observed on the 4H chart.


Keep Smiling - Don't look back

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ingot54
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SYDNEY, April 13 AAP -

The Australian dollar was stronger today on the prospect of higher interest rates and a slowing US economy and rising commodity prices.

At 1200 AEST, the domestic unit was trading at $US0.8317/22, up sharply from yesterday's close of 0.8255/59.

The local currency traded between a low of $US0.8287 and a high of 0.8324.

While the local unit is poised to reach new 17 year highs in the coming days, traders may decide soon to lock in profits, Grange Securities research director Stephen Roberts said.

"It will probably pull back to the lower 80-cent range in the next month or two.
"At this level, even a modest pull back would be one and half, two cents."



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ingot54
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The U.S. dollar touched a two-year low against the euro overnight and fell against most other major currencies on expectations for euro zone interest rates to rise further incoming months.

The dollar's decline accelerated when the market interpreted comments by ECB chief Jean-Claude Trichet as meaning the central bank was likely to raise rates in June or beyond to stem higher inflation. The European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged at 3.75 percent.

Notably absent from ECB President Trichet’s commentaries were the words “strong vigilance.” Instead, he said that interest rates remain accommodative and given their optimistic outlook for growth and their belief that inflation will continue to remain high, they will need to act in a firm and timely manner.

The last few times that Trichet used the words "firm and timely manner" without the words "strongly vigilant," rates were not increased in the following month.
There are some expectations that European officials will address the dollar's slump during the G7 meeting and in particular mention the strength in the euro against the
Japanese yen.

Tonight we have the most important US data due this week, which are the Trade Balance, Producer Prices and the University of Michigan consumer confidence report. The current forecasts indicates that analysts are expecting the reports to be dollar negative, but the fact that import prices doubled expectations indicates that we may see faster growth in producer prices during the month of March.

The trade deficit is not likely to be much of a market mover even though it is predicted to rise, the market is focused on looking for inflation to confirm or deny the Federal Reserve’s intent to leave interest rates unchanged.

The British pound is stronger against the US dollar but interestingly enough, weaker against the Japanese Yen and Euro. Economic data had little impact as the larger trade
deficit was met by stronger growth in house prices.

The Australian, New Zealand and Canadian dollars are stronger against the US dollar today thanks to solid economic data.

Health-care and energy companies helped the U.S. stock market resume its April rally, buoyed by takeover speculation and higher oil prices. Pfizer Inc., Merck & Co. and Microsoft Corp. led the Dow Jones Industrial Average to its ninth gain in 10 days.

The Dow average added 68.34, or 0.6 percent, to 12,552.96.
Crude oil rose 3 percent in New York, the biggest gain in two weeks, after the International Energy Agency said OPEC reduced supplies to a two-year low to cut world stockpiles. Oil for May delivery advanced $1.84, or 3 percent, to $63.85 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the biggest rise since March 29.

Gold in New York fell on speculation a rally to six-week highs was overdone. Silver also fell. Before this week, gold had climbed 5.4 percent in five consecutive weekly gains.

The metal reached $686.80 on April 10, the highest price in six weeks. A drop in copper prices hurt industrial demand for silver, analysts said. About 45 percent of the precious metal is used in industrial applications such as batteries and medical devices.

Copper, used in wires and pipes, today fell from a seven-month high.

Silver for May delivery fell 3.5 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $13.855 an ounce. Before today, prices had climbed 7.4 percent this year.

Again the dip in the AUD was very shallow support holding at .8235 ahead of the rally to.8295.

Buying has continued this morning to set a new high at .8315, we re expecting some correction over the course of the day possibly back towards the .8270/75 level where our strategy is to establish long, stops should be placed just under .8225, 50% profits should be placed at .8305 and stops raised to entry, the balance should be placed at .8335.

The EUR strategy locked in profits from longs at 1.3415 at 1.3455 and 1.3485. Our strategy for today is to look to re establish long Eur into a dip towards 1.3475, stops
should be placed just under 1.3435, 50% profits should be placed at 1.3505 and stops raised to entry at this point the balance of profits should be placed at 1.3535.

The correction we were anticipating for the GBP failed at 1.9724 and so our strategy to establish short at 1.9735 has been subsequently stopped out.

Resistance just above 1.9800 appears formidable but with higher lows still the order of the day it appears as though the market will look to push through the resistance.

Therefore on the day our strategy is to look to establish long GBP into a dip to 1.9780, stops should be placed just under 1.9730, 50% profits should be placed at 1.9807 and stops raised to entry, the balance of profits should be placed at 1.9830.

YEN
Our strategy carried over from Wednesday was closed out at entry for the remaining 50% of the position, our strategy from yesterday is long at 119.25 with stops at 119.55 and profits at 119.90. Our strategy for today is to close out longs at current levels and establish short, stops should be placed just above 119.50, 50% profits should be placed at 118.65 and stops lowered to entry the balance of profits should be placed at 118.30.

Our Gold strategy added to longs at 674.50 and stops are now placed just under 663.00, stops should be raised to entry on a break above 682.00.

Silver failed to establish longs overnight with a low of only 13.66 (buy order at 13.63) our strategy for today is to cancel the order and wait for next week.


Keep Smiling - Don't look back

Trading style: Chartist Artist _ Breakouts and Shakeouts.

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ingot54
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The dollar fell to two-year lows against the euro amid concerns about U.S. economic growth and volatility at the start of a meeting of the Group of Seven rich nations. US Data on Friday showed the Conference Board's gauge fell to a 4-month low while the University of Michigan report printed a 6-month low.

US inflation at the wholesale level rose in March at a sharper pace than expected while core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, was tamer than expected. The Producer Price Index, which measures inflation pressures before they reach the consumer, rose 1.0 pct in March, while core inflation was unchanged in the month.
____________________________________________________________________________

The Euro extended gains versus the dollar after Yves Mersch, an ECB governing council member, said the euro zone can absorb a hard landing in the U.S. economy. Mersch said that even if a U.S. hard landing weakened the dollar 10 percent against the euro, the impact would not be that big.

Finance ministers and central bankers from the Group of Seven nations met in Washington at the annual spring meetings of the IMF and World Bank, fueling expectations among currency traders that the group would endorse further dollar weakness to address large trade imbalances between countries.

The Group of Seven ministers said they are confident disparities in global trade and growth are starting to narrow, a trend that will extend the strongest expansion since the 1970s. The finance chiefs also intensified a plea for a conclusion to global trade talks and reiterated that Asian nations must make their currencies more flexible.

Since a meeting in Dubai almost four years ago, the G-7 has identified differences in trade accounts of key economies as a risk to global growth. The statement was the first since then in which the group indicated progress is being made.

The IMF released a report outlining steps that five key economies have agreed to take to smooth out lopsided trade flows. China will “improve" its currency system, Saudi Arabia will increase investment, Japan and Europe will liberalize their labor markets and the U.S. will cut its budget deficit, the report said.
____________________________________________________________________________

Japan escaped censure as the G-7 papered over differences on the slump in the yen. The statement omitted specific mention of the yen while saying currencies should reflect economic fundamentals and Japan's recovery should be “recognized by market participants."
____________________________________________________________________________

Among the indicators scheduled for release this evening in the US are the TICs, Empire Manufacturing Survey, NAHB Housing Market Index and retail sales. Going off of probabilities, the sales report for March will be the heavy-weight number as policy makers and economists take note of the key growth component for the economy.

However, even if all of Monday's data misses its mark, Tuesday's CPI will be waiting in reserve.

U.S. stocks advanced, erasing losses from a February sell-off in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index, after profits exceeded analysts' forecasts and investors speculated takeovers will accelerate. The Dow added 0.4 percent to 12,612.13.
____________________________________________________________________________

Crude oil in New York fell because of surging inventories in Cushing, Oklahoma, where West Texas Intermediate oil, the U.S. benchmark, is delivered. Crude oil for May delivery fell 22 cents, or 0.3 percent, to settle at $63.63
____________________________________________________________________________

The AUD continues its rally this morning, hitting the .8350 level. Again dips or corrections have been virtually non existent, the dip we were looking for on Friday to .8270/75 only managing .8287.

We are overdue for a correction, but it is extremely difficult to look at going short in the face of such strength. There is minor support now at .8335, .8305 and moderate at .8275.

Our strategy for today is to establish short AUD on a break of .8330, stops should be placed at .8365, 50% profits should be placed at .8305 and stops lowered to entry for the balance the remaining profits should be placed at.8285.

We would view this dip as an opportunity to establish long with stops just under .8230, 50% profits at .8335 and stops raised to entry the balance of profits should be placed at .8365.
____________________________________________________________________________

Again the dips we were waiting for in the EUR to 1.3475 missed out as the low was only 1.3481 and therefore missed out on the subsequent rally to 1.3575. There is support now at 1.3555, 1.3505/10 and again at 1.3480.

It is very difficult to buck the trend, but there should be short intra day corrections. So our strategy for today is to establish short EUR just under 1.3550, with stops just above 1.3585, 50% profits should be placed at 1.3520 and stops lowered to entry the balance should be placed at 1.3490.

Our strategy would look to re establish long EUR at 1.3490 with stops placed just under 1.3435, 50% profits should be placed at 1.3535 and stops raised to entry for the balance, the remainder of profits should be placed at 1.3565.
_____________________________________________________________________________

GBP longs taken at 1.9780 have subsequently taken profits at 1.9807 and 1.9830 prior to setting a high this morning at 1.9883 (1.9887 Friday night). A break now of the resistance at 1.9885/90 should see a retest of the Jan 1st 07 high at 1.9916 with a subsequent break here looking to target the 1st Sept 1992 high of 2.0102.

Our strategy on the day is to look to re establish long GBP on a dip to 1.9835. Stops should be placed just under 1.9763, 50% profits should be placed at 1.9875 and stops raised to entry, the balance of profits should be placed at 1.9965.
_____________________________________________________________________________

Our strategy for the USD JPY established short USD and locked in profits at 118.65 and 118.30 ahead of the rally to 119.70. The JPY looks set to test the 120.00 and from there has the potential to rally to 121.10/15.

For today our strategy is to look to establish longs on dips to 118.95/00, with stops placed just under 118.45, 50% profits should be placed at 119.45 and stops raised to entry the balance of profits should be placed at 119.85.
_____________________________________________________________________________

Our Gold strategy added to longs at 674.50 and stops on all longs now should be raised to 674.00, it appears that the high of 689.05 from 27th Feb 07 should be tested soon. We’re happy to stay with that strategy for the moment.

For Silver our strategy was to stay out. For today the strategy is to look to establish long now around 14.00 with stops placed just under 13.60, look to raise stops to entry on a break of 14.30 and look for a retest of the 26th Feb 07 high at 14.70.


Keep Smiling - Don't look back

Trading style: Chartist Artist _ Breakouts and Shakeouts.

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ingot54
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Tuesday, April 17, 2007 - 04:32 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



The info on this table might be of interest.

All times are GMT.

Some significant events expected - expect the USD to appreciate after news release. Early indications/expectations are that figures are much better than they were for February.




Keep Smiling - Don't look back

Trading style: Chartist Artist _ Breakouts and Shakeouts.

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ingot54
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US data on net capital flows and retail sales had little impact on the dollar. International investors bought a net $94.5 billion of U.S. securities in February, up from $79.6 billion in January.

U.S. March retail sales rose slightly more than expected, while manufacturing in the New York region was weaker than expected at the start of April.

The yen plummeted to record lows against the euro and fell to its lowest against the dollar since February after the Group of Seven passed over the issue of the Japanese currency's weakness. With their rock-bottom yields not expected to move anytime soon the yen remains the funding vehicle of choice for these carry trades.

Strong British producer prices and housing data reinforced the view that the Bank of England will raise interest rates again as soon as next month and helped propel sterling to a near-15-year peak at 1.9940.

The Swiss franc rebounded from a record low after central bank President Jean-Pierre Roth said its 2 percent drop this year versus the euro wasn't in line with the country's economic fundamentals.

Markets will focus on U.S. inflation data for March. Economists expect the headline Consumer Price Index to rise 0.6 percent on a month-on-month basis and core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, to edge up 0.2 percent.

The Standard & Poor's 500 Index surged to its highest in more than six years, catapulted by higher-than-expected bank and drug company earnings and the $25 billion takeover of student-loan provider SLM Corp.

Citigroup Inc. enabled the Dow Jones Industrial Average to erase losses from the Feb. 27 global sell-off after reporting revenue grew the fastest in almost three years. SLM, known as Sallie Mae, jumped the most ever after accepting the bid from a group including JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Bank of America Corp. The Dow industrials rose 108.33, or 0.9 percent, to 12,720.46

Gold in New York rose for the second straight session, extending a rally to an 11-month high, as a decline in the value of the dollar increased the appeal of the precious metal as an alternative investment.

Crude oil was little changed in New York after stalling yesterday on signs increased refinery production will slow a decline in U.S. fuel stockpiles.
___________________________________________________________________________

Our strategy for the AUD is currently short at .8326, stops should be placed at .8365 with 50% profits placed at .8305 and stops lowered to entry at this point, the balance of profits should be placed at .8365. With 2 lower highs after the .8358 trade there appears to be some scope now for a correction back towards .8260/65 where we would look to re-establish longs with stops just under .8215.

Our strategy for today is to short AUD at current levels .8320 with stops just above .8358, 50% profits should be placed at .8295 and stops lowered to entry the balance should be placed at .8265.
____________________________________________________________________________

Our strategy for the EUR is currently short at 1.3547 with stops placed at 1.3585, 50% profits are placed at 1.3520 with stops to be lowered to entry at this point, the balance of profits should be placed at 1.3490.

For fresh positions today our strategy is to short EUR at current levels (1.3527) placing stops just above 1.3565, 50% profits should be placed at 1.3495 with stops lowered to entry, the balance of profits should be placed at 1.3485. Our strategy would then look to re establish longs into a dip to 1.3465 with stops just under 1.3415.
____________________________________________________________________________

The dip we were looking for in the GBP was quite shallow and left our strategy untouched. It is now sitting on support at 1.9880/85, with a break here setting up a correction that could test 1.9815/25.

Our GBP strategy for today is to establish short on a break of 1.9878, stops should be placed just above 1.9925, 50% profits should be placed at 1.9845 with stops lowered to entry, the balance of profits should be placed at 1.9825. The strategy is then to look to re establish long GBP at 1.9825 with stops placed just under 1.9765.
____________________________________________________________________________

Our strategy for the USD/JPY was to establish longs at the 118.95/00 level with a low of only 118.98 , longs may not have been set. For those that did, profits should have been taken at 119.45 and 119.85.

Our strategy for today is to establish longs into a dip to 119.60, stops should be placed just under 119.15, 50% profits should be placed at 119.85 and stops raised to entry, the balance of profits should be placed at 120.15.
____________________________________________________________________________

Our long strategy for the Gold should now look to raise stops to just under 683.00, a break of last nights highs at 691.10 is likely to lead to a test of the 705.00/710.00 level.

We will not look to add to longs today. Our Silver strategy is long at current levels with stops now at 13.60, stops should be raised to entry on a trade above 14.30 looking to take profits around 14.70.


Keep Smiling - Don't look back

Trading style: Chartist Artist _ Breakouts and Shakeouts.

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ingot54
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Post Number: 1833
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Tuesday, April 17, 2007 - 11:31 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Economic News

USD Yesterday, Retail Sales came stronger than expected, however the strength contained underlying weakness as oil prices drove upwards.

Meanwhile the Empire State Manufacturing Survey reported a far smaller improvement in the month of April, suggesting that the manufacturing sector is still struggling to recover.

The Treasury International Capital flow data (TIC) reported softer demand for long term US securities ($58.1 billion compared with $98.8 billion in January), we also had the NAHB housing market index, which dropped to 33 from 36, reviving concerns about the housing market.

The current prices continue to highlight the difference between the relative performance of the US versus Europe and Asia and this can only mean further USD weakness. Whether this will come directly or whether there will be an earlier pullback is just a little unclear. We are approaching key peaks for the EUR and GBP at 1.3665 and 2.0045-00 respectively.

Looking ahead, the markets expect CPI, housing starts, building permits and industrial production figures today while the CPI and RPI numbers could trigger and push the USD to lower ground.
____________________________________________________________________________

EUR
The EUR remains strong against the USD after reaching a two-year high at 1.3576. in reaction to hawkish comments made by the ECB that growth is stable and inflation is well controlled which continued to fuel demand for EUR over USD.

The market's demand is mainly focused on countries that are looking to raise interest rates and the EUR answers their will. Tomorrow we are expecting the German ZEW survey of analyst sentiment. The consensus forecast is calling for an increase in analyst sentiment thanks to recent upside surprises in growth and a rally in the stock market.

However since analysts are always forward looking, we could actually see a downward surprise since the strong EUR and outlook for higher interest rates could crimp growth in the months to come.

JPY
Yesterday the Industrial Production came out at 0.7 compared with the -0.2 in the previous month . One of the key factors for the Japanese economy to solidify the base for recovery is consumer confidence and this took a further knock in March with the index edging lower by 1.4 to 47.2 and below forecasts of 47.8.

One reason for the drop has been suggested to be the fact that the survey was conducted in person rather than over the phone. That aside, the Japanese are naturally conservative by nature and generating a reading reflecting strong confidence is always going to be a tough thing.

With the market more Yen bearish the result will add to the desire to buy Dollars on dips - with the 119.00-10 area the first test of key support.

Technical News

EUR/USD
On the 4 hour chart we can see the B wave (Elliot Wave) is establishing and we are expecting the upcoming bearish C wave which probably will test the support level located at 1.3520.

GBP/USD
A bullish channel 1.9723 - 1.9938 can be observed on the hourlies . A Doji on the 2 hour chart signals an upcoming reversal bullish trend that may convert to a breach of the next resistance level that is located at 1.9925. In case of breaking this level GBP will probably continue to strengthen and will test the 1.9971 R2.

USD/JPY
On the 1 hour chart we can see a tiny bearish flag forming, this pattern signals that the bearish trend will test the 119.46 (flag length 19 pips). On the 4 hour chart the RSI and Slow Stochastic are in a neutral territory however a bullish head and shoulders is observed and it may boost this pair to break the 119.85 resistance level in the upcoming days.

USD/CHF
On the 4 hour chart we can see a clearly bearish trend establishing and a breach of the 1.2124 level will send us to wait for the reversal to occur that to be derived from the bullish flag that can be observed on this 4 hour chart.


The Wild Card

AUD/JPY
This forex pair is moving in a tight range lately 1.9919 - 1.9988 however a descending triangle is forming which may imply on an upcoming reversal trend that may be an attractive entry point that traders often look for.


Keep Smiling - Don't look back

Trading style: Chartist Artist _ Breakouts and Shakeouts.

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stocky
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Wednesday, April 18, 2007 - 06:41 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Ivan,

I have the below link open while i'm trading, helps out with news etc.

http://news.efxnow.com/EN/Commentary/index.html

Stocky.


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ingot54
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Thanks Stocky - Will check it out.

I have to say that I am not particularly impressed with Forexyard and Sonray News.

They will always only be a bushman's guide to the lie of the land - not an Almanac.
____________________________________________________________________________

Economic News
USD
Yesterday the greenback continued to depreciate against the majors.

It fell to a fresh two-year low against the EUR after the release of US core consumer prices excluding food and energy costs, which came in at 0.1% which was lower than market expectations and the smallest increase in three months following a 0.2% gain in February.

This news bolstered expectations that the Federal Reserve will look to lower interest rates this year and combined with the fact that industrial production released in negative territory at -0.2%, was enough to drive the dollar back onto the bear wagon.

On the other hand, positive data from the US such as the unexpected rise in housing starts and the continued rally of the Dow Jones Industrial Average was completely shrugged off renewing worries among investors that the US economy may be slowing compared with the solid growth in Europe and Asia.

Without any further significant US data to be released this week it seems that the dollar will continue on its bearish trend and could head past the 1.3600 level against the EUR and drop even further against the sterling which leaped passed the historical $2 mark yesterday, it's highest in over a decade.

The directions that carry trades will take and the momentum of the EUR and GBP will play an important role in determining whether this continued bearish trend will materialize.
____________________________________________________________________________

EUR
The ZEW Center for European Economic Research reported yesterday that its index of investor and analyst expectations increased to 16.5, from 5.8 in March, surpassing the expected reading of 10.

German investor confidence has risen to a 10-month high in April which is a sure sign that Europe's largest economy is accelerating.

Also the Euro zone trade deficit shrank to -1.7bn from a previous figure of -7.0bn, beating market expectations of a -5.0bn figure.

The result of these better than expected figures was that in Yesterday's late afternoon trading the EUR was up to 1.3564 against the USD, after reaching a two year high of 1.3595, less than 1 cent below a record high of 1.3670.

The high level of the EUR could eventually draw some criticism because it leads to higher export prices and Germany is highly dependent on exports.

The positive momentum of the EUR should continue as there is room for a further rate hike without retarding economic growth and this sentiment seems to be shared by the ECB, with a rate hike expected in June.

Today there is no significant data being released and we should see the EUR push past the 1.3600 level against USD before making surge in the near future towards the record high of 1.3670.
_____________________________________________________________________________

JPY
Yesterday the JPY won some reprieve against high yielding currencies following a sharp fall on Monday on the back of the G7 meeting that glossed over the issue of the yens recent weakness.

Against the JPY, the USD fell 0.7% to 118.88.

The BOJ Governor Fukui has warned that they will be looking to raise interest rates but the bottom line is that deflation is a major concern for Japan and with their rock bottom yields not expected to move anytime soon, the JPY remains the funding vehicle of choice for carry trades.

Today there is no important data coming out of the Japan but changes in flows and sentiment may bring about some sharp movements.

It is widely believed that the JPY will continue on its bearish trend as investors dump it for higher-yielding currencies and assets in pursuit of carry trades.

Technical News EUR/USD
The pair is consolidating at 1.3590 after a relatively quiet night of tight range movement.

Daily charts are bullish with plenty of room to extend.

Hourly studies are unwinding from overbought levels and support the bullish trend.

Next target price is 1.3640.
____________________________________________________________________________

GBP/USD
The cable is at a record high of 2.0100 with great confidence.

Daily studies have never been more bullish, and are signaling that a further break through the next resistance level is imminent. The hourlies present no threat to the very impressive record price levels.
____________________________________________________________________________

USD/JPY
The volatility is high. Bollinger bands are parallel and form the trend.

The 4 hour chart indicates bearish pressure on USD JPY. The downtrend should continue to gather momentum as the price should find support above 118.50/118.40. In case of a break, the support is around 117.70.
____________________________________________________________________________

USD/CHF
The pair's volatility might decrease as the Bollinger bands are beginning to tighten.

The 1 Hour chart is in a bearish configuration. The downtrend might continue to 1.2000 which is also a very strong local support.
____________________________________________________________________________

The Wild Card EUR/JPY
The pair is touching the lower barrier of a very distinct upward channel on the 4 hour chart. The slow stochastic is showing a bullish cross at that time frame, which offers forex traders the opportunity to jump in at a good low price before the pair continues the inevitable uptrend.


Keep Smiling - Don't look back

Trading style: Chartist Artist _ Breakouts and Shakeouts.

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lafee
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Ignot,

Have you noticed how they tend to have a trade lined up for every pair. I personally don't think there are that many real opportunities myself. News of this kind is simply an invitation to trade. The broker does very well from it.

A big slice of the brokers earnings come from churning new accounts.

Cheers Lafee


Position at the edge.

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ingot54
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Have to agree Lafee

For this reason I will limit posting now to just the news, not the technical strategy. Too misleading, and can really put traders off their own strategies.

I have recently lost an account (less than $1000) partly through the influence of the technical strategists who put out the news bulletins, and I have no wish to mislead others.
I'm developing my own strategy based on support/resistance and certain rules, so the advice of other technical analysts will not affect my decisions too much in the future.
_____________________________________________________________________________

Economic News

USD
The USD weakness after the G7 meeting has given the green light in terms of USD bears and we can see an acceleration of the USD sales. Investors are focusing on the growing interest rate differential between the US and other parts of the world, and the market predicts a continuation of the USD sell off until we will see some shifts of those expectations.

The USD weakness at this point is justified by the economic data which has been coming through. It is a period of inconsistency in economic growth-rates around the globe, as we notice a pull back in growth in the US and a pick up of Europe and China.

It is a shift toward Europe and this momentum will continue also in the future.

Yesterday the USD weakened against the JPY, after stronger than expected GDP data came out in China. The USD will continue to drift lower, getting to some lower levels especially in the major crosses.

EUR
Yesterday, the EUR continued hovering near two-year highs, less than one US cent off its all-time record, after earlier this week the ECB reiterated that in June another interest rate increase for the 13-nation Euro zone was very probable.

The ECB said in its April bulletin that it was monitoring price risks "very closely" a term that analysts have come to see as tactical reference to a rate increase within one or two months.

Higher interest rates, used to combat inflation, can bolster a currency by making certain types of investments more attractive. In Yesterday afternoons European trading the EUR rose to 1.3616 against the USD, a level not seen since December 2004, before falling back to 1.3593 level.

The German PPI was reported at 0.3%, which was slightly below the market expectation of 0.4%.Today the only significant news coming out of the Euro zone is the UK monthly retail sales data ,which is important, especially as there are uncertainties over underlying consumer spending trends.

The BRC retail sales data suggested that March spending was strong which should be reflected in the monthly sales report, but consumer confidence levels remain generally subdued and there have been some significant profit warnings in the consumer sector.

Volatility will remain a significant risk, especially as there have been monthly swings of more than 1.0% in four of the last 6 monthly readings.

Sterling is liable to react strongly if there is another monthly increase or decrease in excess of 1.0%.

Today the EUR will continue on its bullish path, targeting its all time high of 1.3667 against the USD, as it seems that there is nothing to hold back the positive momentum of the EUR.

JPY
JPY up on the Chinese market data. China economy continued to expand in the first quarter to 11.1% and the foreign market has been affected by concerns about policy reaction in China due to the strong GDP data. T

The JPY edges on concerns that Beijing may hike interest rates to cool its economy, and those concerns caused the JPY to climb overnight as investors began to unwind JPY carry trades.

International investors as well as local savers in Japan had been borrowing in low yielding terms and investing overseas, and regarding the hike up that we have noticed overnight was due to, the China's equity market, which soldoff by 4.5% and this movement was a reminder of the very sharp set off that we saw early in March.

The expectations are that the volatility will remain high, the unwinding of the JPY carry trading any time soon, and it looks like the bank of Japan will be raising interests rates later this summer and push the JPY back upwards.


Keep Smiling - Don't look back

Trading style: Chartist Artist _ Breakouts and Shakeouts.

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ingot54
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Friday, April 20, 2007 - 09:24 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



This news came in before lunch so is a bit dated. I will remove the technical trading advice, and stick to release of data only.

I have found several conflicting views between Sonray and Forexyard over recent weeks, pointing to subjective judgement and interpretation of the data.

My advice is to read as a guide only, and form your own view. I believe the advice can be accurate, but I also believe the field is wide open to abuse, because they do NOT give the time-frame they are reporting.

For example, it may be true that: "The yen, however, has trimmed earlier gains against high-yielding currencies such as the U.S., Australian and New Zealand dollars." (see below) but this statement could be completely misleading IF the statement was reporting on a 15 minute chart, but the 4-hourly chart was showing strong and increasing gains!

When reading this news, check the data against your own charts to work out the time-frame reported.

This ambiguity plays right into the hands of the market-makers, and is an excellent strategy for them to make money.

Time Frame Is Everything!
____________________________________________________________________________

The yen edged higher on Thursday as worries about a possible near-term interest rate hike in China to slow its red-hot economy prompted investors to unwind carry trades.

Data showed that China's economy grew at a blistering 11.1 percent annual pace in the first quarter and March inflation rose above the central bank's 3 percent comfort level.

The numbers fuelled speculation that interest rates would need to rise again soon to tighten credit, a view enhanced by Premier Wen Jiabao's comments that the country needed to take measures to prevent economic overheating.

Chinese stocks lost 4.5 percent on Thursday, the sharpest drop since Feb. 27 when the Shanghai Composite Index slumped 9 percent.

Equity markets in Asia and Europe fell, adding to expectations investors may unwind carry trades.

The drop in Chinese stocks sent global stocks lower and government bonds in Europe and the United States higher.

U.S. stocks, meanwhile, ended mixed.

The yen, however, has trimmed earlier gains against high-yielding currencies such as the U.S., Australian and New Zealand dollars. In late afternoon trading, the euro was slightly lower on the day at 161.20 yen , after having fallen 1 percent.

The dollar recovered from lows of 117.62 yen to trade at 118.45 .

There was no reaction in currency markets to news the Philadelphia Fed's index of business conditions in the U.S. Mid-Atlantic region was unchanged in April after
economists had expected a stronger result and suggests that manufacturing activity is decelerating and that lends further evidence to the slowdown in the U.S. economy.

The Standard & Poor's 500 Index dropped for the second time this month, buffeted by consumer shares, after Marriott Corp. cut its revenue forecast.

The Nasdaq Composite Index fell a third day, while pharmaceutical companies carried the Dow Jones Industrial
Average to a second consecutive record after Merck Co. forecast profit that may beat analysts' estimates.

The Dow average added 4.79 to 12,808.63.

Crude oil rose in New York on speculation demand may climb as U.S. refiners increase operating rates to make gasoline ahead of the peak holiday season. A U.S. government report showed that refiners bolstered operating rates by 2 percentage points last week, raising expectations that demand for oil may increase.

Crude oil fell yesterday after the pipeline that supplies Canadian oil to the U.S. market resumed shipments.

Crude oil for May delivery rose as much as 0.6 percent, or 34 cents, to $62.17 on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Gold and silver prices in New York fell on speculation that the euro's rally to near-record highs against the dollar will stall, reducing the appeal of precious metals as an alternative investment to the U.S. currency.


Keep Smiling - Don't look back

Trading style: Chartist Artist _ Breakouts and Shakeouts.

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ingot54
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Wednesday, April 25, 2007 - 05:51 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Economic News
USD
An important day for the greenback today, as traders look for a dash of positive news in order to push the USD a bit higher, after yesterday's negative figures. Existing home sales fell -8.4% to 6.12m in March, much weaker than the expectation of 6.45m and reached an 18 year low.

Consumer Confidence also deteriorated further to 104.0, compared to the consensus of 105.0 causing the USD to weaken after data raised expectations the Federal Reserve may have to cut interest rates sometime this year.

As for today, at 13:30 GMT we should be expecting Durable Goods Orders which came in at 1.7% last month and is widely expected to rise to 2.6%. The core figure for the Durable Goods Order is even more positive as it is widely expected to come out of negative territory of -1.0% into the positive 1.1%.

After yesterday's Low existing home sales, all eyes will be on the new home sales release today at 15:00 GMT. The forecast for March's number is 890K. That's up almost 5% from February's 848K.

Some analysts are already suggesting this may have been overly optimistic, just like the existing home sales estimate. It's worth noting that the two releases are quite different, however.

New home sales require labor and material, while existing home sales don't. Existing home sales typically require a closed contract, while new sales may be based on simply signing a contract or accepting a deposit.
____________________________________________________________________________

EUR

The European currencies grew stronger yesterday on the back of the low US data, despite a very low Euro-Zone Industrial Orders. The figure came out at a negative -0.7% while it was widely expected to come in at positive 0.9%.

As for today, the German IFO is expected to be released at 9:00GMT. The consensus is that it will come in unchanged from last month's 107.7, and despite moderate expectation will probably cause some price movement as it is considered to be an important indicator for the European market.

The UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will be released today at 9:30 GMT and is expected to weaken bit from last month's 0.7% into 0.6%. in addition to the IFO, and the flow of US data, we should expect all the major currencies to trade with a large price movement range today.
____________________________________________________________________________

JPY

The Japanese Trade Balance was released overnight and came in very strong at 1.63T, which is a big climb from last month's 0.98T. Despite the strong figure we did not see sharp price movement on JPY pegged currencies.

There will be plenty of Japanese related news on Friday; most is expected to be relatively positive for the JPY, and still all are expected to generate no change in the JPY weakening trend.

We are moving into Golden Week, which is a period that most Japanese people take off for holidays. Over the past 10 years, there has been a positive rally for the USD/JPY on 6 out 10 times. The remaining 4 years there has been a tie between a negative rally and an unchanged status.


Keep Smiling - Don't look back

Trading style: Chartist Artist _ Breakouts and Shakeouts.

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ingot54
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Friday, May 04, 2007 - 10:16 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Just a couple of snippets to whet your trading appetite.

The USD rose for a third straight day overnight after solid U.S. services sector data eased concerns about a slowing economy, ahead of tonight’s April U.S. Non Farm payrolls report.

The Institute for Supply Management's U.S. non-manufacturing index for April rose more than economists had forecast to 56.0 from last months 52.4.

The Non Farm Payrolls are expected to show 100,000 new jobs for April, a better than expected number should see this short term correction of the USD continue into next week.

With the U.S. economy having logged four consecutive quarters of below-trend growth, the dollar still faces an uphill climb in the medium term.

Today’s RBA Quarterly statement to be released at 11.30 will be keenly watched for signs of the likely direction for short term interest rates. Comments that the RBA is happy with inflation growth at current levels may see the AUD come under pressure, as interest rates may be left alone for a while yet.

The outlook for higher rates has been one of the main driving forces behind the rally in the AUD.

The better-than-forecast gains in American productivity and the U.S. services industry pushed the Dow Jones Industrial Average to a third straight record and the Standard & Poor's 500 Index above 1500 for the first time since September 2000.

The Dow industrials added 29.50, or 0.2 percent, to 13,241.38.

Crude oil fell on speculation that U.S. inventories are sufficient to meet demand from refineries that are increasing gasoline output.

Crude oil for June delivery fell 49 cents, or 0.8 percent, to settle at $63.19.

Gold in New York climbed from a one- month low on speculation the price drop was overdone given the dollar's weakness this year against the euro. Silver also rose.




Keep Smiling - Don't look back

Trading style: Chartist Artist _ Breakouts and Shakeouts.

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ingot54
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Monday, May 14, 2007 - 10:31 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



POSSIBLE SURPRISE STRENGTH IN YEN TODAY

There is economic news due out for the Japanese economy today:

Domestic CGPI (Month-on MOnth)
Domestic CGPI (Year-on-Year)
Current a/c Total
Adjusted Current a/c Total
Trade Balance - (BOP Basis)


Announcements due at 11.30am GMT
____________________________________________________________________________

Regarding this following statement:- (I don't believe a word of it, but I am wary that it may be correct, if that makes sense. I tend to believe the opposite):

The JPY looks vulnerable against the USD, we see support on the day around 119.75/80 with minor resistance at 120.40/45. A break of the resistance opens up potential for a rally that should extend to 121.55/60. Our strategy for today is to look to establish longs on a dip towards 120.00/05, stops should be placed just under 119.65, 50% profits should be placed at 121.50 with stops raised to entry at this point, the balance of profits should be placed at 121.30.

NOW - HERE is the reason I believe things could explode positively for the YEN, despite what ForexYard says:

Japan is under subtle, or not-so-subtle pressure to raise rates and end the carry trade. But to do so would hurt Japan's economy.

The carry trade is not helping Japan's economy, but they are really powerless to stop it until economic indicators shut it down with a bang!

When that happens, our western markets will have the blowtorch on the belly - again!

Remember Feb 27th?

Well, China is about to raise Interest rates AGAIN by 0.27%. (My theory based on my readings).

If that happens, the YEN will follow the YUAN (Renminbi) and I can see that BOJ will whack up rates by 0.25% - particularly once some decent performance figures are released.

That could come sooner than later - be ready to capitalise on the USDJPY when it comes. IT WILL happen, and I am plonking for it before end June '07.

It will take a shock/horror event to do it, and all of the signs from Japan have been quietly positive and stronger than they have been acknowledged for. I think that even this week there is room for that rise.

I think China will make it's announcement on Thursday, and Japan Friday, from memory. Correct my errors please, if incorrect.

Here's what I am talking about:

The yen had risen earlier in the session, tracking the Chinese yuan, which hit a post-revaluation high on speculation about an interest rate hike in China.

The softer retail sales, producer prices and business inventories sent the dollar tumbling against every other currency except for the Japanese Yen. With the Japanese having no plans to raise interest rates and the carry advantage so skewed in favor of higher yielding currencies, therefore the main driver of the movement in USD/JPY has been carry.

On a percentage basis, the movements in EUR/JPY, AUD/JPY and GBP/JPY have been far greater than the movements of USD/JPY. The correlation between the Dow and carry trades is something that is not just unique to USD/JPY and in fact relates to the entire basket of carry trades.


There - unexpected according to the report. Notice the YEN has moved in a greater % against the other Majors, but not the USD.

Why?

When will this correction happen to bring the USD in line with other YEN pairs?

And once it does, will the YEN continue to make ground, as perception about Fundamental strength in the YEN becomes apparent?

I hope some of you can think this through more clearly than I can. I am a green-as-grass novice here, struggling to find that edge.

Have I found one?

(Message edited by Ingot54 on May 14, 2007)


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Trading style: Chartist Artist _ Breakouts and Shakeouts.

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ingot54
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Tuesday, May 15, 2007 - 01:48 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=akwheNotlOXA&refer=economy

BOJ SHOULD RAISE RATES BASED ON ECONOMY, (MINUTES SHOW)

May 7 (Bloomberg) -- The Bank of Japan should gradually raise interest rates as the economy extends its longest postwar expansion, minutes of the bank's March board meeting show.

Members agreed the bank would "adjust the level of interest rates gradually in the light of developments in economic activity and prices," according to minutes of the March 19-20 meeting released today in Tokyo. The bank has kept the key overnight lending rate on hold since doubling it to 0.5 percent in February.

Governor Toshihiko Fukui said on the same day that a delay in raising rates, the lowest among major economies, could hamper growth.

"The BOJ is very keen to normalize its rate policy as long as the economy is doing fine," said Nobuo Ibaraki, deputy general manager of foreign exchange at Nomura Trust & Banking Co. in Tokyo. He said the bank may raise rates "as early as June."

Board members agreed that prices will rise in the "long term." In the April report, the bank acknowledged that the pace of rate increases has been slow because of "weak" inflation.


Fourth Quarter

"The message from the outlook report was clear -- the Bank of Japan plans to raise rates only very gradually," said Ben Eldred, an economist at Daiwa Securities SMBC Europe Ltd. in London. "The next rate move will most likely come during the fourth quarter, but possibly as early as September."

Some economists say cutting the inflation prediction may actually provide a better opportunity for the bank to raise rates.
________________________________________________________________________________ _

Obviously some conflict about timing, but I see this as smoke screening.

The rise will come like a thief in the night!

There will be no fanfare - no Bloomberg, no Nomura. These people are reporters, not predictors. They will be the last to know and the first to report!


Keep Smiling - Don't look back

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ingot54
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Tuesday, May 15, 2007 - 06:40 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



With the exception of the GBP it was a relatively quite night trading wise as the market braces itself for this evening’s economic data from Europe, UK and US.

For the US its inflation and housing and both have been market movers in the recent past.

Last week, the Federal Reserve remained steadfastly hawkish so the CPI number will be particularly important to traders looking for confirmation on why the Fed refuses to put growth ahead of inflation.

Since the beginning of the year, petrol prices are up 48 percent and we believe that not only will consumers feel the pain at the gas station, but also in many ancillary services that rely of transportation as a method of delivery. In fact, today’s 2 cent increase in postal charges could very well be related to the higher gas prices.

Aside from the CPI number, the Empire State manufacturing survey and the Treasury International Capital flow reports are also due for release.

From the Eurozone, we are expecting first quarter GDP. Growth is expected to slow from an annualized pace of 3.30 percent to 3.00 percent.

Swiss retail sales are due for release. Annualized consumer spending is expected to slow from 4.5 percent to 4.0 percent.

For the UK overnight disappointments in producer prices, leading indicators and house prices provided an explanation as to why the Bank of England failed to up their degree of hawkishness following last week’s 25bp rate hike.

April input prices for producers fell 0.2 percent on an annualized basis and increased a less than expected 0.7 percent monthly. Even though annualized output prices were in line with expectations, core output price growth slowed from 2.8 to 2.3 percent.

We mentioned that the strength of the British pound should have reduced inflationary pressures and this was exactly what we saw today. Tonight, we have consumer prices due for release and we could see softer numbers there as well as consumers may benefit from lower prices on imported goods.

Should we get softer numbers in CPI to go with last night’s PPI release, rate hike expectations could drop sharply, which of course, would be bearish for the British pound.

Aside from PPI, house prices also grew at a slower pace of 10.9 percent.

With regards to the USD/JPY the relationship between the Dow and carry trades is so strong that traders have completely ignored the stronger Japanese data released overnight.

The Japanese current account surplus hit a record high while the CGPI inflation index jumped from 2.0 percent to 2.2 percent year over year. This suggests that we could see a stronger GDP number and hawkish comments from BoJ Governor Fukui after the monetary policy meeting scheduled for Thursday.

Bank and brokerage shares tumbled after JPMorgan said interest rates are unlikely to fall this year, sending most U.S. stocks lower and curtailing the Standard & Poor's 500 Index's six-week advance. The Dow average increased 20.56, or 0.2 percent, to 13,346.78.


.

FOOTNOTE: It is just my opinion but the above adds further pressure to the relationship between USD and JPY.

So far recently we have seen the JPY strengthen against EVERY major AND the crosses - EXCEPT the USD!

Now we have traders completely ignoring the stronger Japanese data released overnight.

AND: In the face of: "The Japanese current account surplus hit a record high ... the CGPI inflation index jumped from 2.0 percent to 2.2 percent ... we could see a stronger GDP number and hawkish comments from BoJ Governor Fukui after Thursday"

Am I missing something here?

Seems to me that when the reversal comes, it will be significant - a lot of catch-up perhaps? There must be some interesting arbitrage around the USDJPY right now.


Keep Smiling - Don't look back

Trading style: Chartist Artist _ Breakouts and Shakeouts.

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ingot54
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Sunday, May 27, 2007 - 06:16 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



TRADING ALERT USD/JPY

After sitting on this egg for so long, the time has come for it to hatch:

How Will The Markets React?

"Come Monday, half of the Western world and two of the three main FX hubs will be closed in observation of holidays. The US capital markets will extend the weekend with the Memorial Day holiday while German, British and Swiss financial institutions will be closed for Whit Monday. This means that the Far East – led by Japan – will be responsible for price action for a full 36 hours. In the opening hours of the week (which is typically a calm period to begin with), the Japanese docket will print its first indicator – a gauge of corporate service prices for the year through April. According to the consensus among economists, the report is expected to be largely uneventful with a 0.6 percent pace that matched that of the previous month. Regardless, the indicator does have some level of risk built into it since it will add another piece to the inflation puzzle. Anything resembling a near consensus print will be largely overlooked. Even a substantial surprise to the upside may see price action left untouched because of ..."

Read more, plus bond yields ...

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/dailyfx_reports/cross_markets_data_reaction/Will_Im proved_Japanese_Consumption_Turn_1180130139446.html







Keep Smiling - Don't look back

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ingot54
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Sunday, May 27, 2007 - 06:38 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



TRADING ALERTS: USD

A few snippets to whet your trading appetite this week:

US Dollar: Will Next Week Spell Disaster For The Greenback?

"Another day, another dollar as the greenback was able to brush off much worse than expected housing data to remain within respectable trading distance against major counterparts ahead of the holiday weekend. Notably, against the Euro, the dollar lost approximately 40 pips shortly following the National Association of Realtors report this morning, but retraced quite a bit closing just 15 pips above ...

... likely to keep traders and market observers focused on consumer spending figures as ripple effects from the housing market are still yet to truly emerge in the US economy. The bearish sentiment is likely to be echoed throughout this week as there is a bevy of US surveys to contend with. Notably, setting aside two consumer confidence surveys and a manufacturing report, focus will likely land on the non-farm payrolls figure and GDP report...

... consensus estimates are looking once again for six-figure employment growth and stable expansion in the world’s largest economy. These reports, should they be to the downside, will definitively overshadow the rest of the week’s docket, spelling disaster for the US dollar.

_____________________________________________________________________________

Euro: Consumers Still Confident After VAT

In a word, resilience. That’s what German consumers are exuding far after the government’s value added tax reform was placed into effect at the beginning of the year.

... the report jumped to the highest level in 5 months and was widely in line ... the sub-index component that measures the current economic outlook rose to 69.5, the highest level on record.

... boosted speculation on the day as traders and market participants continue to price in the likely rate hike coming next month.
____________________________________________________________________________

British Pound: Revisions to 1Q GDP Prop the Pound

The British pound has continued to hold up well above 1.9800 as the currency consolidates following Wednesday’s hawkish monetary policy meeting minutes. With the minutes alluding to the possibility of another interest rate hike in July or August, traders have reversed a good portion of their pound shorts. The second release of first quarter GDP backed the bullish bias ... even more encouraging was the breakdown, as private consumption held strong, outpacing a pickup in government spending.

Cable could be in for some trouble next week, as almost every indicator - including GfK Consumer Confidence, Nationwide House Prices, and PMI Manufacturing – is due to ease back.

_____________________________________________________________________________

Japanese Yen: CPI Still Signals Deflation

After strengthening in the Asian session, the Japanese yen went on to weaken throughout the day as data once again reiterated that the economy hinges on the edge negative price growth.

... Japanese officials vehemenently deny that the country is in deflation, but until CPI actually starts to show some positive results, there is little hope that the Bank of Japan will be able to raise rates in the near term.

Looking ahead to next week, a spate of spending data will hit the tape, all of which are anticipated to improve. If we see positive surprises in Retail Trade and Overall Household Spending on the back of stronger consumption in the first quarter GDP report, the yen may start to react to fundamentals in a more consistent manner to finally give the currency a reprieve.
_____________________________________________________________________________

Commodity Currencies: Canadian Dollar Still the Currency to Beat

The Canadian dollar proved to be the currency to beat, with USDCAD falling to new 29 1/2 year lows as a strike at Nigeria ’s state-owned oil company and an attack on a refinery in the Niger Delta sent oil prices rocketing higher. Next week could be make or break for the Canadian dollar, with the Bank of Canada meeting early in the week followed by an expected jump in first quarter GDP.

Meanwhile, the high-yielding Australian and New Zealand dollars played on the US dollar’s turf today, seeing little in the way of local economic data, as both the Aussia and Kiwi spiked higher

Next week, data on both the Aussie and Kiwi sides will be relatively thin, but price action could surge on Australian Retail Sales and the Trade Balance.


Greater depth here:

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/dailyfx_reports/daily_fundamentals/Dollar__Will_Nex t_Week_Spell_1180125834579.html


Keep Smiling - Don't look back

Trading style: Chartist Artist _ Breakouts and Shakeouts.

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