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NZDAUD

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morti01
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Saturday, May 12, 2012 - 02:35 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Just wondering if anyone has any valuable input as to where they think this is heading. On the monthly, there is a definite long-term down trend. However, the weekly appears now to have come to the point of a triangle ... Any technical discussion on where it could go from here?


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ingot54
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Saturday, May 12, 2012 - 09:39 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Morti01 - The kind of trading you discuss - ie Monthly - is the exciting place to be when trading currencies, and is the interface of TA and FA ... as you may already know if you are looking at this time frame ... even en passant.

I doubt any of my thoughts could be classed as "valuable" regarding "where this is heading" because the one thing I do know about trading , is that I know nothing.

With the humilities are out of the way now, we need to get off our hands and form something of an opinion of the probabilities, and I have just spent > 100 words redefining your question to arrive at that conclusion

Firstly, to state the obvious ... the HIGHER time frame rules ... generally speaking. So the way to trade this is to sell rallies in down trends, or buy the tanking price in up trends.

The current price has been trading in a 5 cent range for the past 18 weeks. I can not see any "defining long term down trend" on the monthly, as the past 2 months HAVE been down - yes - but before that the trend has been strongly UP for 4 months. But if you are looking at the trend since 2005 then yes, I strongly do agree that the trend IS down.

Please clarify - I need to know your holding period. Currently I would view price as resuming the down trend - ie falling back in line with the long term trend, and a great place to sell the NZDAUD if going along for the long term.

I am saying that I really see this pair in a range, but set up now to break out if indeed the economics support it. I believe they do because I believe we are seeing too much uncertainty in the major economies, and a rebalancing is long overdue. This "might" be occurring now, given what I am seeing in things like the EURUSD and EURAUD but especially in GOLD and OIL, but I would not trade it that way with any certainty.

Commodities have received a bit of a set-back

My charting requirements not include things like flags, wedges, Head and Shoulders etc, though I believe they truly are excellent tools. The main thing is to know and understand the benefits and limitations of any of the tools in your arsenal! I follow trends as defined by Moving Averages, StochasticRSI and a couple of other boring things.

I have reduced my own trading to the weekly/daily/4H time frames now, until we begin to get some sense back into the markets. That may never happen, so I just have to trade as skilfully as I can with the trends I CAN define.

Philosophical note: Until manipulation is no longer a feature of the markets the good old days will be remain where they are. We may NEVER see good trends again like before ... but the opportunities are still out there. And so is the manipulation.

In long term trends, TA is less of a consideration, in my view, but it can STILL be a very valuable asset in defining optimum entry points.

I can post a chart, but at this stage it may be of little value, until I know more of what you are looking for.







Keep Smiling - Don't look back

Hell, there are no rules here - we're trying to accomplish something ~ Thomas A. Edison

Never believe that a few caring people can't change the world. For, indeed, that's all who ever have ~ Margaret Mead


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qed
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Monday, July 09, 2012 - 08:40 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hey Ingot , rekn u got the bull by the horns there M8 cheers Q


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ingot54
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Monday, July 09, 2012 - 09:29 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hey Qed ... nice to hear from you mate.

Mondays are days that I rarely trade. Just looked over NZDUSD and it looks to me that anyone selling the pair right now could probably make money.

Last month we had a 1,470 pip rally against the down trend so you can see what sort of terrors are playing with us minnows.

If you (ie anyone) are trading this pair, it seems probable there are about 500 pips to regress yet, before serious support is bumped.


NZDUSD_Daily


Personally I am trading the GBPNZD as I find the trend in the weekly and daily to be a thing only poets can describe.

GBPNZD_Daily


Keep Smiling - Don't look back

Hell, there are no rules here - we're trying to accomplish something ~ Thomas A. Edison

Never believe that a few caring people can't change the world. For, indeed, that's all who ever have ~ Margaret Mead


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qed
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Tuesday, July 10, 2012 - 10:07 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Ingot , just me but I would wait for some uptrend signal, looked at weekly also and it looks like more downside cheersQgbpnzd


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ingot54
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Wednesday, July 11, 2012 - 10:39 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Qed - I'm using an approach that looks at what EACH TF is doing from Monthly down to 1H .... and sometimes as far down as the 15M to fine tune the entry.

We haven't heard from Morti01 ... so I'll throw on a chart of the NZDAUD as bait

Dunno where I got the "1473 pip rally" in the above post ... it was only 473 pips with my broker! Too much caffeine ... not enough slumber! Most currency traders have dark circles around their eyes, and it could have been the intersection of a couple of those circles causing night blindness

Below I have stacked the 6 TF I follow, of the AUDNZD. My broker does not have the reciprocal chart, so just invert ...

EDIT: Can't change the charts I uploaded in error, so will re-post below ...

(Message edited by ingot54 on July 11, 2012)


Keep Smiling - Don't look back

Hell, there are no rules here - we're trying to accomplish something ~ Thomas A. Edison

Never believe that a few caring people can't change the world. For, indeed, that's all who ever have ~ Margaret Mead


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ingot54
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Wednesday, July 11, 2012 - 11:10 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



It can be seen by following the charts from Monthly right through to 15M that the trend for AUDNZD is strongly in rally.

Looking at charts in this way make the decisions pretty much foolproof - which is necessary for a trader such as myself!

AUDNZD
AUDNZD
AUDNZD
AUDNZD
AUDNZD
AUDNZD

There doesn't seem to be any impediment to the rally, now that Governor Bollard is no longer at the helm in NZ

It's just my view, but he did a pretty good job of keeping NZ competitive during the earthquake sequelae, and during a time when the rest of the world was struggling economically. He frequently was able to "talk-down" the value of the AUDNZD without manipulating interest rates too much ... and to me, that is the best management you could have.

Market forces ... with the human touch!

While I like a strong currency (consumables are cheap) I like trends even better ... any direction ... any time ... any pair ...

So to answer Morti01's question ... the inverse - NZDAUD is headed lower in the foreseeable future.

(Message edited by ingot54 on July 11, 2012)


Keep Smiling - Don't look back

Hell, there are no rules here - we're trying to accomplish something ~ Thomas A. Edison

Never believe that a few caring people can't change the world. For, indeed, that's all who ever have ~ Margaret Mead


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morti01
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Wednesday, July 11, 2012 - 03:42 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Guys, and thanks for the feedback. Unfortunately I am just a learner for all charting, and think that to trade FX, you have to be skilled and fearless! My interest in the NZDAUD rate is due to my sons receiving a substantial (for us) life insurance benefit when their father (an Australian) died. As trustee of these funds until they turn 18, the money is still sitting in AUD, but as we live in NZ,I want to change it over at some stage. My eldest son turns 18 in December!
I love the whole charting thing, and keep watching the AUDNZD with interest. Yes, Ingot, I was looking at the monthly long-term downward trend from 2005. On my weekly, I have a "pennant???", with the top line starting July 2010 and the bottom line starting April 2011. Looks good, but have no idea if it is relevant in the FX rules, or what would be expected to happen once it is broken...
Thanks for any discussion. I watch (and try to learn) with interest. Mort


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ingot54
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Wednesday, July 11, 2012 - 04:43 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Mort - there are a few things worth rehashing as far as traders, equities and currencies - are concerned. In fact traders of any instrument will all tell you the same:

1. The main thing to learn about markets, is that you know NOTHING and will ALWAYS know NOTHING.
2. The market rules ... and the market MAKES the rules.
3. You can start off proud, arrogant, humble or indifferent, but you will finish up humble regardless.
4. Success in trading does NOT depend on intelligence ... it depends on simplicity.
5. When you come to the end of your resources ... when you exhaust ALL or your ideas and ALL of your reserves, ALL of your willfulness and ALL of your stubbornness and ALL of your knowledge, and probably most of your money, then you might be ready to learn to trade.

I could go on ...

In general, a chart is a chart is a chart ... meaning that broadly speaking, charts reflect human behaviour in the marketplace - in pre-manipulation days they did anyway. Charts show news, sentiment, fear and greed, as well as prosperity and failure.

Currency charts are no different, but the bigger TF are more truthful than their noisy children, the hourlies and intra-day members of the family.

One thing I have discovered since my entry into trading in March 2004, is that "they" are ALL lying to you - some through ignorance, like other traders ... some through malign intent, like those who sell strategies and systems ... some through greed, like brokers or money makers ... some through desire to experience the rush of power, like politicians, central bankers (eg news releases) and investment houses.

One of the biggest lies ever put on traders is this one:

The trend is your friend


No ... the trend is NOT your friend. Your "friend" is the strategy that gets you into a trade at the BEGINNING of a trend, and out BEFORE the end. It's simple ... but not easy.

In fact someone said: "I have never worked so hard for easy money." Ain't that the truth!

Trading could be learned in 8 months ... if only the trader would listen to the mentor. But as mentioned above, all of us have to divest ourselves of our "self-ness" before we can learn trading.

In your case, you are needing to enact a currency transaction based on the Fundamentals. You are wise to be considering the Technical aspects in order to manage the transaction astutely.

All I can say is that when you reach the higher TF you approach the Fundamentals ... meaning that by watching the longer term charts such as Weekly and Monthly, you can get an idea of the optimum time to do the trade.

While the NZDAUD (or the inverse AUDNZD as in my charts) may be moving against a good swap right now ... these things can be cyclical, and in time you can choose a very good exchange rate.

The pair is currently in the mid-range of its meanderings ... and in my view, it could go either way. I am favouring a deterioration of the rate against you for the future.

ie: Currently it takes $NZD1.2840 to purchase $AUD1.00. Or put the other way ... $NZD1.00 will purchase only $AUD.7788.

You already know the AUD needs to weaken against the NZD before the exchange will benefit you. Perhaps your 18yo could become a trader ... become patient ... become an Aussie for awhile?

A decline in the AUD is looming ... just a view - it may not.

But with China getting the wobbles lately, the AUD is going to lose is gloss.

Maybe you could look for economic signs of this development, while also keeping in touch with the chart?

Hope it works out for you all.


Keep Smiling - Don't look back

Hell, there are no rules here - we're trying to accomplish something ~ Thomas A. Edison

Never believe that a few caring people can't change the world. For, indeed, that's all who ever have ~ Margaret Mead


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qed
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Wednesday, July 11, 2012 - 07:39 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



just to add re "trend is ur freind" cross ur freind and go against the grain ...you may as well give ingot or myself ur money. Its taken me many $$ to learn to only go with the trend ... no matter how good it looks


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qed
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Wednesday, July 11, 2012 - 08:44 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



post disapeared ,,, first off I apologise to Colinfor not using IC charts ... heres a monthly look at audnzd as I see it , I wouldnt trade it atm ,,would wait for direction.aud


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ingot54
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Wednesday, July 11, 2012 - 08:45 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



QED - while not contradicting your point of trading with the trend, I was trying to highlight that once the trend is in place, it is no longer your friend.

ie it is almost impossible to successfully CHASE a trade once price has formed a trend. It can be done, of course, but what is required is a pull-back, so as to avoid the disaster wrought by a draw-down.

I love trends, but getting aboard them is like jumping on to a moving train ... they are NOT friendly at that point.

Better to spot the formation BEFORE it can be recognised as a trend.

This is done by paying attention to all TF ... and few indicators. Once I discarded my favourite indicators - and I had some absolute beauties - my trading began to flourish.

Not all trends are your friend.


Not all trends are your friend


Keep Smiling - Don't look back

Hell, there are no rules here - we're trying to accomplish something ~ Thomas A. Edison

Never believe that a few caring people can't change the world. For, indeed, that's all who ever have ~ Margaret Mead


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qed
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Thursday, July 12, 2012 - 12:12 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Ingot , absolutely agree about missing the start of trend , if ur not on it at the beginning you may as well sit and wait for the next 1. IF you are disciplined enuff to add to positions when the retrace happens to a trend line (with protective stop under trend line) there are some nice profits to be had , but hell as soon as u get a cpla wins the discipline goes out the door it seems , THAT is the journey.... just some thoughts to add to a welcome sensible discussion cheers Q


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ingot54
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Thursday, July 12, 2012 - 12:41 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Oh yes mate - I have done so many times.

As soon as you're "on a roll" the eyes roll back and dollar signs appear where they used to be!

It goes like this:

"Hey! How good am I? I've finally nailed this - three wins in a row. Yahoo!"

You tell yourself: "I'm playing with 'their' money. Now for some serious compounding."

Pretty soon reality hits with a thud! A loss. "Oh! Didn't see that coming. But ... my strategy is so good, I'll pile in harder on the next trade."

I think it was Spider years ago on this forum who said that the worst thing that can happen to a trader, is to get a win on their first trade. Doesn't matter ... it's true. For the rest of your trading life, you have to fight this false belief that the market is going to hand you a bonus.

For a long time, I wanted to 'get even' with my broker for stop-hunting my trades. But it was a pre-occupation that was holding my trading development back. I have one piece of advice for those like me:

"DITCH THE GRUDGE."

The broker hardly knows you are on the books. They certainly have bigger fish to fry, and they don't have time to try to follow one trader amongst thousands, just for the margin.

The best favour I ever did myself was to scrub the personality battles from my life, and get some knowledge under my belt. Just because you are NOT paranoid, doesn't mean they are not after you.

Should you care less?

Cheers.


Keep Smiling - Don't look back

Hell, there are no rules here - we're trying to accomplish something ~ Thomas A. Edison

Never believe that a few caring people can't change the world. For, indeed, that's all who ever have ~ Margaret Mead


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ingot54
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Thursday, July 12, 2012 - 12:46 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Just for those who think the market is out to get them

...Paranoia


Keep Smiling - Don't look back

Hell, there are no rules here - we're trying to accomplish something ~ Thomas A. Edison

Never believe that a few caring people can't change the world. For, indeed, that's all who ever have ~ Margaret Mead


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qed
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Thursday, July 12, 2012 - 08:51 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



she is gorgeous


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qed
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Thursday, July 12, 2012 - 08:57 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Ingot ... unbelievable .... so few reticent to share the pitfalls, so many unwilling to learn.I congratulate you on ur ability to explain the journey, I consider myself very lucky to see the sign posts a bit clearer now .BON FORTUNE Today was great day ,,, solid down trend on spi with some nice re entries on retraces cheers Q


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ingot54
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Thursday, July 12, 2012 - 10:08 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



No one is perfect, QED ...and I have just made a very serious error.

In my post above I mentioned to Morti:

"You already know the AUD needs to weaken against the NZD before the exchange will benefit you."

In fact the opposite is true. The stronger the AUD, the MORE NZD can be purchased. Morti is taking Aussie dollars back home, so she will need a strong AUD to get the best out of the exchange.

The opposite is the case if bringing NZD here to Oz.

Dunno what I was thinking! The AUDNZD is in a bit of a rally this week - but down a touch today. I'm not much on patterns, but I can see a narrowing wedge in an uptrend, and a series of 3 inside bars in the monthly chart.

Would anyone like to make a guess on it? I'm favouring an upside breakout, but that's not the way I trade.

You can see in the charts below why I like the AUDNZD to rally from here, but if you combine yesterday's candle with today's, you get a toppy-looking shooting star! That's a worry.

But we shall have to wait until tomorrow to see where the daily candle closes.

AUDNZD_Monthly
AUDNZD_Weekly
AUDNZD_Daily


Keep Smiling - Don't look back

Hell, there are no rules here - we're trying to accomplish something ~ Thomas A. Edison

Never believe that a few caring people can't change the world. For, indeed, that's all who ever have ~ Margaret Mead


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qed
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Looks like its flying Ingot ,, nice chart cheers Q


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qed
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YO INGOT . revisiting IC hoping to encourage a few more posters ... a certain other place is full of barra . altho only a couple do forex gold etc it do better . heres a chart of the audnzd as of 5pm 2 sept .. I am only trading off daily after checking the trend off weekly ,(not holding atm) cheers Qaudnzdweekly


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qed
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Monday, September 02, 2013 - 05:35 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



sorry I should have offered an explanation , the chart is a "mt4"chart with "heikinAshi candles overlaid ordinary candles (a set up I discovered while whiling away a few hours ) the RSI is "simple 10" with hi/lo/middle The tarde is taken when the rsi approaches the middle line from above or below and when a candle signal occurs . I also watch for "pin bar " reversals at extremes cheers Qdaily







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qed
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Monday, September 02, 2013 - 05:48 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



ps these charts are AUDNZD}

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