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Archive through February 24, 2007

Chart Forum » Gold & Precious Metals » GOLD-Anyone for tea? » Archive through February 24, 2007

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archer
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Post Number: 1746
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Sunday, January 14, 2007 - 11:12 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Heres da smokin gun RR
Hedgies are dumpin resource to get into soft commods
Look what happened friday
corn
soy
barley
rice
oats


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kate
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Post Number: 510
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Sunday, January 14, 2007 - 03:26 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Archer, are you sure its a movement from metals to soft commodities and not a rotation within soft commodities - thought I heard sugar, coffee and something else were dumped. US Democrats pushing the Biofuel issue again which may have been responsible for the moves. Not sure of my facts, just heard it on the morning news but was still half asleep.

Kate







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archer
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Sunday, January 14, 2007 - 04:50 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Yes kate i should have said dumping copper and oil as they are the only charts you could really call a bear trend and yes there will be rotation going on also
Commercials are still way long copper so interesting to see
if this is just a huge shakeout or weather the coms are
big time wrong for once


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kate
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Monday, January 15, 2007 - 07:46 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Archer,

Funds picking up Aluminium instead of Copper at the moment, can't see any other change.
Is it possible that Uranium is being bought too or are the big metal funds just base metals and Uranium is a separate entity altogether?

Kate

PS
The guy from The Bullion Desk (the one who wins the competition most years) is predicting $850 this year.


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archer
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Monday, January 15, 2007 - 08:35 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



I dont even know if the funds can buy uranium
850 sounds like a nice conservative target for gold (;->
I'm not sure how high it will go myself but it will attract
a lot more attention by the time this year is out and silver
will quietly outperform for yet another year


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maxboost
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Username: maxboost

Post Number: 103
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Tuesday, January 16, 2007 - 12:22 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Archer,
There was a big report for the agricultural markets released on friday which explains the action.
Regards


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goldbug
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Wednesday, January 24, 2007 - 12:01 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



We've seen this before .....
This time its the real thing .....




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kate
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Wednesday, January 24, 2007 - 07:34 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Goldbug,
Thought there would be a post from you this morning!
Looking good and about time!

Kate


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rederob
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Wednesday, January 24, 2007 - 08:12 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Kate
2% rises in the precious metals - spurred on by a cold US winter and massive spike in crude oil prices.
Might have to see what DIO does today as is nearing its 10cent "breakout".
Otherwise Lihir should be the standout performer.


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kate
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Post Number: 534
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Wednesday, January 24, 2007 - 08:35 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Rederob
The oil spike seems to have been what gold has been waiting for, still isn't flying solo yet. Giving a helping hand was the big rise in the pound (no doubt to precede another hike in interest rates there and in Europe this time.
Also, more "scary" talk about the Chinese stock market and "will there, won't there" be a big move into gold.
Add all that to the Chinese scaring the life out of the Americans last Friday and the speculators will be out in force.
Buying more LHG today and MCR - nice breakout of the latter.

Regards
Kate


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rederob
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Wednesday, January 24, 2007 - 09:04 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Kate
Look at adding some VCR if the palpitations return - another recent breakout!

On oil, Bush wants to double the US Strategic Reserve. If that proceeds, then it will be difficult for oil to go too far backwards;
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aG5IcyBWI9.M&refer=us


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kate
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Wednesday, January 24, 2007 - 09:46 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Rederob

Re oil, are you writing that for my benefit or yours :-)

Kate


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kate
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Saturday, January 27, 2007 - 07:31 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



And I thought the manipulation of the gold price was just a bit of tweaking around the edges!

http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=28410


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robbo
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Wednesday, January 31, 2007 - 10:03 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



These links provide a very interesting history and in my view supports investing in gold bullion and distrusting irredeemable fiat currencies. The second link is primarily sent for the "New World Order" articles as The "Bilderbergs" were also mentioned in the first link. You may wish to forward these links to others who may be interested.

http://www.thetruthseeker.co.uk/article.asp?ID=160

http://www.safehaven.com/archive-199.htm


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archer
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Wednesday, January 31, 2007 - 10:45 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



http://oikonomika-blog.blogspot.com/2007/01/leading-canadian-banker-recommends_2 1.html


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robbo
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Wednesday, January 31, 2007 - 11:27 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



The Illuminati Chronicles Part 2
http://www.thetruthseeker.co.uk/article.asp?ID=159


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robbo
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Wednesday, January 31, 2007 - 11:45 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



a more recent story on the Bilderberg Society

Bilderberg Meeting Ė Media Should Be Ashamed


http://www.thetruthseeker.co.uk/article.asp?ID=230


we dont know what we dont know


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robbo
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Wednesday, January 31, 2007 - 01:20 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



"Can the Fed Prevent Deflation? Does it want to?" is the title to the article in the link below.

The reason for sending this post is to inform anyone interested in the topic. I suggest that understanding what money is and is not,its role in our society and current monetary policies will help to better understand interest rate trends and in turn bond, stock and commodity markets.


The link "Fiat Empire" (which is a video)in the attached link will help readers already not in the know, to understand that the US Fed is not a bank but a system. The US fed is NOT owned by the US Government but is run by the 12 district Fed Banks whose shareholders are the commercial and investment banks and wealthy individuals. JP Morgan, Rockefeller and other of like ilk drafted the Federal Reserve Act of 1913 on Jekyll Island. Gues for whose benefit the Act was drafted- theirs or yours?

Understanding the US and global monetary system should lead to an understanding of ways to protect your capital (wealth) especially when (not if) the whole system unwinds.

http://www.bullnotbull.com/archive/deflation-2.html


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kate
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Thursday, February 01, 2007 - 07:31 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Interesting article Robbo.
Also interesting was the Dow shooting up last night(everything apparently rosy in the US - that's a joke) and gold doing the same. All that excess liquidity sloshing around global markets is going cause problems, when we do have a downturn, its going to be nasty.

Kate


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robbo
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Thursday, February 01, 2007 - 04:27 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Kate, everything is NOT rosy in the good ole USA even though the majority of people perceive it to be so and the mass media tend to misrepresent as being so. GDP was reported at an annual rate of 3.5% for the December quarter but that is misleading as the general price level(cpi) is understated by about 2%.

Monetary growth i.e. inflation is in excess of 10% p.a. and credit growth is rising at a more rapid rate. This means the purchasing power of USD's is falling at a faster rate than the rate of interest in money savings accounts or bonds. In other words if the yield of US 10 year bonds is 4.8% then the bond holder has lost in excess of 5.2% of purchasing power. The same picture more or less applies to the UK, China, Australia, Europe and most other countries.

The US has a negative savings rate and faces huge fiscal problems which will start to get worse from 2008 when the baby boomers start to retire. The credit bubble continues but how long can it do so at an accelerating rate of expansion?


Did you notice that the employment cost index trend is rising? ( less profits for companies).

The earnings growth in the last quarter essentially came from the Finance and Energy sectors - everyone else was either flat or deteriorating.

The Chicago PMI came in at 48.8 ( below 50 indicated a recession) Construction spending fell .4% in December.

I think some of the key indicators to watch is credit growth, long term bond yields and credit spreads.


I can go on but will refrain from doing so


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robbo
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Thursday, February 01, 2007 - 06:57 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Kate,the attachment refers to my latest post _ written by Bill Goss of Pimco which i understand is the world's largest bond fund manager.

http://www.pimco.com/LeftNav/Featured+Market+Commentary/IO/2007/IO+February+2007 .htm


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ingot54
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Saturday, February 24, 2007 - 08:58 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Bit of rain on the parade -

Gold has had a terrific week, but all thatís really happened is that it's moved back up to the top of it's trading range.


.

Last September the gold bugs went nuts and cheered that we were on the way to new highs. Then gold stocks fell off a cliff.

Last December they once again celebrated the new highs.

And again, gold stocks declined to the lower end of the trading range.

With gold stocks challenging the upper limit of the trading range, gold bugs are cheering it on AGAIN!

Commercial short interest in gold is now at a level that occurs at short-term tops in the market.

According to a report from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the commercial net-short interest in gold in gold futures and options is 177,000 contracts.}

Thatís higher than the 172,000 net-short position we saw when the gold market peaked last May.

And itís higher than the 140,000 and 119,000 net-short positions that occurred during the September and December tops.

Speculative traders are now net-long the highest position in gold futures and options contracts since last May.

So the commercial traders, who have the best track record for timing moves in the gold market, are aggressively short the metal.

And the speculators, who have the worst track record for timing moves in the gold market, are aggressively long the metal.

Of course, itís possible that the commercials are wrong, and the speculators are finally right.

Itís also possible that the England will win the next Ashes series 5-0!.

But itís a dangerous bet.

(Abridged and Paraphrased from " www.growthstockwire.com "


Keep Smiling - Don't look back

Trading style: Chartist Artist _ Breakouts and Shakeouts.

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vermante
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Saturday, February 24, 2007 - 10:15 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Ingot -

I conclude you believe that gold and gold stocks are a risky investment.

What a pity

You are going to miss out on all the fun.

Macquarie Bank has taken a stake in BSG and The wolf's are on the prowl for LHG.

Global gold production is declining -


Cheers-

Vermante (A gold bug)


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chaosinaction
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Saturday, February 24, 2007 - 02:56 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Vermante, with respect, I think you're missing Ingot's point.

I might be wrong, but I don't think he's disputing the long term trend of gold, but simply warning that, based on the report from the Futures Trading commission, he believes a correction similar, if not more intense than May 06, is about to happen. It's a short term prognosis with which I concur.

After all, regardless of fundamentals, the POG is market driven, running according to the profit/loss psychology of traders. And we're all looking at the same charts, and seeing the same resistance line, and the evidence that Ingot has brought to the table seems to indicate that this resistance line is forming a trigger for a sell off.

And considering gold is definitely at a make or break point in the short term, based on this, I don't think it's going to break out this time. Maybe on the next movement up.

Thanks for the info Ingot. Very compelling.







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vermante
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Saturday, February 24, 2007 - 04:03 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



chaosinaction

I have been trading long enough to be aware that markets can always surprise in either direction .


I was just having some fun with Ingot.From time to time We share emails.


Despite an extremely good analysis by Ingot.My money is on POG going higher with the appropriate risk controls in place

Cheers

Vermante



 
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GOLD-Anyone for tea? Ľ Archive through January 14, 2007rederob25 14-Jan-07  11:39 am
GOLD-Anyone for tea? Ľ Archive through December 06, 2006archer25 06-Dec-06  09:38 am
GOLD-Anyone for tea? Ľ Archive through September 12, 2006archer25 12-Sep-06  07:45 pm
GOLD-Anyone for tea? Ľ Archive through August 29, 2006rederob25 29-Aug-06  07:33 pm
GOLD-Anyone for tea? Ľ Archive through July 15, 2006archer25 15-Jul-06  02:24 pm
GOLD-Anyone for tea? Ľ Archive through June 09, 2006rederob25 09-Jun-06  06:23 pm
GOLD-Anyone for tea? Ľ Archive through May 24, 2006justice25 24-May-06  11:25 pm
GOLD-Anyone for tea? Ľ Archive through April 30, 2006archer30 30-Apr-06  04:47 pm
GOLD-Anyone for tea? Ľ Archive through March 06, 2006goldbug36 06-Mar-06  10:42 pm
GOLD-Anyone for tea? Ľ Archive through January 17, 2006vermante25 17-Jan-06  07:44 am

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