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Trade Trends with Bollonger Bands and Twiggs Money Flow

Archive through June 02, 2007

Chart Forum » Gold & Precious Metals » GOLD-Anyone for tea? » Archive through June 02, 2007

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chaosinaction
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Post Number: 7
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Saturday, February 24, 2007 - 04:11 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Yep ... wasn't admonishing you ... it was more that the information made sense to me ... linked up with a gut feeling I've had for the last couple of days, that gold was about to reverse, before it took another run up.

Don't usually post, coz words without vocal inflections can often take on emotional tones that are not intended ... so one can get into terrible jams, particularly on Forums like this .. but I enjoy reading all of the thread I subscribe to on this Forum.


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ingot54
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Saturday, February 24, 2007 - 05:46 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Thanks guys - yeah - I love to stir the gold bugs from time-to-time.

Keeps 'em honest, an' on their game!

Particularly in times like this it pays to be vigilant.

The time to be a gold bug is at the bottom of the troughs imv. Gold may or may not go higher, but getting in now has a lower probability of success (in hind-sight of course).

If we were talking about a stock here, I doubt the exuberance would prevail for long.

But gold is a strange instrument to trade - just when you think it's had enough it powers along for another run.

Chaosinaction - thanks for the insightful notes - and the kind support. Would like to hear more of your views - keep 'em coming.

Vermante - what odds would you like on your money? I think it's about 4/6 a reversal! Good to hear from you mate!

Just picked up a great one-liner from Dug:

"Humble Pie is Food for Thought"







Keep Smiling - Don't look back

Trading style: Chartist Artist _ Breakouts and Shakeouts.

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vermante
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Saturday, February 24, 2007 - 08:41 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Ingot.

Re-Gold

Short-term Trend - UP

Intermediate - Trend UP

Long Term Trend - UP

I would hate to take your money from you. Are you betting in Hillarius dollars.?

Cheers

Gary




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ingot54
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Saturday, February 24, 2007 - 09:03 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Doubloons!

Nothing less!

..

Had to halve that bet - image too wide for the frame ... and I realised I MAY have been wagering more than I can afford to lose here!

(Message edited by ingot54 on February 24, 2007)


Keep Smiling - Don't look back

Trading style: Chartist Artist _ Breakouts and Shakeouts.

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goldbug
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Monday, April 16, 2007 - 02:11 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/200704/s1897909.htm


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sway
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Monday, April 16, 2007 - 03:18 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi goldbug

I'm interested in the listed security GOLD for hedging and have the following question.

As I understand it, the trading price of GOLD approximates the spot market price of 0.1 oz of gold bullion. If bullion is say, US$680/oz and the A$/$US rate is say 0.83, then GOLD will trade around 0.1 x 680 /0.83 = $81.93. Now this interests me because you have exposure to both the currency exchange and the gold price. Using the above example again, if the A$/$US drops back to 0.79 and the gold price stays constant, a holding in GOLD would increase by a ratio of 0.83/0.79 or about 5.1% more. I guess you could buy $US and achieve the same result, but I'm hearing a lot about bullion going up, which could make GOLD a reasonable long term prospect.

Any thoughts?
Geoff


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goldbug
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Monday, April 16, 2007 - 03:59 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Sway,

The price of Gold is in a multi year, once in a generation bull market, the likes we've never seen before .....

Gold in all currencies will rise significantly over the next decade, give or take a couple of years ....

Regards

The BUG


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hailoh
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Monday, April 16, 2007 - 08:56 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Goldbug, I am all for confidence, and if that confidence is well founded, sticking to it for the long haul.

For gold to be in a generational bull trend there will have to be a set of coinciding events or circumstances to support the rise.

I'd be interested in how you list the main supporting scenarios, and how you see their weighting changing over time.


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kate
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Tuesday, April 17, 2007 - 02:58 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Goldbug, will you ever forgive him? Sometimes a man just has has to do what a man has to do!

http://www.fnarena.com/index2.cfm?type=dsp_newsitem&n=F86938DC-17A4-1130-F50BAF9 384DE7C60


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rederob
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Saturday, May 12, 2007 - 03:00 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Gold's consolidation is nearing an end.
The euro is about to ratchet up again, against the greenback.
Oil typically gets uplift hereabouts.
The mix of ingredients is again ripe for gold to rise.
If it does not, someone else can search for the yeast because I don't know where else to look.
Goldbug, where are you hiding?


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goldbug
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Monday, May 14, 2007 - 05:49 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Rederob,

Its all uphill from here .....

Our beloved GoldBear, Mr Brown, will be reminded everyday in office of his decision to sell off the family jewels at record rock bottom prices ....

Go the GOLD

Regards

GB


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rederob
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Monday, May 14, 2007 - 07:59 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Gordon Brown (for PM)
ie "precious metals"

gO gORDON!


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kate
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Tuesday, May 15, 2007 - 08:57 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Rederob

This looks like the last opportunity to enter around 650/660.
The only proviso is if there is a massive unwinding of the hedge funds. I don't like the idea that large amounts of gold can now be sold at the press of a button.
Hope you have some pennies saved for oil?

Kate


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rederob
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Tuesday, May 15, 2007 - 08:25 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



kate
we never know one day to next
but i agree that gold is so close to its next run north it is not good to be without exposure
am not too worried about funds unwinding gold - there has been a strong consolidation and i doubt there is too much downside that will not get well bought into
on oil i am waiting for a little bit more downside - reckon closer to $60 is the mark
in any event i doubt too much will be saved as the oilers seem to have preempted POO and gone to the races
on charts and fundamental i see POO hitting $100 next year
actually i believe if GOM hurricanes do any damage this year there will be a massive spike to poo
POG will be in lockstep
and holding it all together will be the inimitable decline in GWB's currency of choice


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kate
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Wednesday, May 16, 2007 - 08:48 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Rederob

Better check your weekly charts, OSH and BPT are approx the same price as they were 2 years ago! Not even bothering to look at the oil price, just check the the sea temps instead, nothing else to cause a spike at present. Are you thinking of a little more balance yet - something along the lines of a nice little piece of agricultural land in a good rainfall area mightn't be a bad investment?

Kate


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rederob
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Wednesday, May 16, 2007 - 01:10 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Kate
I checked the oilers' prices 2 years ago and decree a discrepancy of magnitude!
A year ago the oilers went markedly higher, and have consolidated beautifully since then.
However, the data I am reading shows a looming shortfall between supply and demand that by 2009 will, not be met.
Accordingly, I am reviewing my portfolio percentage mix and will skew more heavily towards "energy" producers.
I reckon BPT is the strongest small play oiler in our market with more potential upside on known reserves than the others, so that's where I will be parking most money.
I also think that if anyone wanted a uranium stock at a bargain price with negligible downside but strong upside, then PDN under $9 today is a steal.


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kate
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Thursday, May 17, 2007 - 08:19 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Rederob

Gold down again last night, probably the ECB selling a bit more of their stash. Talk of the potential of going down as far as 635 but $15 not much in the scheme of things. I'm more concerned about a correction in our market which could potentially knock off 20% of any new trade entries. A nice little 6-10% pullback would make shopping much more enjoyable.

Kate

PS Make mine a long black!


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tryhay
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Thursday, May 17, 2007 - 08:34 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



"This looks like the last opportunity to enter around 650/660"

Good Point Kate. The gold chart (below) shows continued respect of the longer term support, and not too long to wait for confirmation of gold's direction.

Gold Weekly Chart:
Gold

BSG Daily chart: Looks pretty sick at the moment but just might turn around in sympathy.... That recent volume action and reduced price action looks a bit sus....


BSG

Kate, missed your post in the typing ~ my guess is that $635 is just that (talk), but a drop below $650 will shake the tree somewhat & a better opportunity to top up the troy Ozs.

(Message edited by tryhay on May 17, 2007)


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kate
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Thursday, May 17, 2007 - 08:42 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Tryhay,

I'm a bit out of the loop but wasn't/isn't BSG's parent company subject to a takeover bid?

Kate


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rederob
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Tuesday, May 29, 2007 - 11:01 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Kate
Driving season is upon the Americans from this week, so gasoline inventories will be keenly reviewed each week now.
The first sign of a major decline will see POO climb markedly as US refiners are already at full tilt.
Then toss in a GOM hurricane and we will see POG lockstep with POO in the GWB handicap.
Even Captain Chaza would not deny the charts were readying for a breakout of tempestuous magnitude.

fly on the mighty precious yella metal


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kate
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Wednesday, May 30, 2007 - 09:26 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Rederob
Hate to break this to you but I'm not touching gold for the forseeable future, its slowly heading downhill and the next brake is approx 635. Iran and the US are agreement over the future of Iraq and China now produces more gold than Australia. Talk of China producing more than S.A within 2 years.
Oil inventories in the US okay at present but as you say need to be watched. At the moment the greatest chance of a spike(bar something unforseen)is weather related. Have you noticed the kidnappings in Nigeria and problems in the Middle East and North Korea haven't made a difference to the price in the last 6/12 plus?

Regards
Kate


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tryhay
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Wednesday, May 30, 2007 - 10:14 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi,

Viewing a chart always helps interprete current and future (possible) events & it is some time since the daily gold chart has been posted....

The ~12 month chart below suggests to me that the short term support is likely to be respected again with a probable bounce towards the ~$700 level. Why? The past pattern (established over 12 months) suggests this: the daily MACD is whipsawing around zero; CCI is respecting short term support; RSI is oversold and on the 3 month chart these indicators are perhaps turning. YES this established pattern could fail (as suggested by colin in the latest trading diary), and if it does one needs to take appropriate action.

I am perhaps not as bullish as Redrob (I would not be surprised if there is a false break below the support), but I see gold is in long term uptrend, and I do not see good reason for that uptrend to stop (in fact Red provides some good reason/s for it to continue..)

Daily Gold 12 months:

Gold_D

Daily Gold 3 months:


GOLD_3_Months

Nevertheless, I am keeping some powder dry for THAT eventuality.....


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kate
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Wednesday, May 30, 2007 - 11:45 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Tryhay

Life would be easier (ie long term correlations confirmed) and I'd be a lot happier if the POG goes up.
However, in the short term gold isn't going up so I think a wait and see approach is called for. The graph does look nice though!

Regards
Kate

As a PS to my previous post Americans are changing their driving patterns to cope with the increase in petrol prices.


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tryhay
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Saturday, June 02, 2007 - 11:27 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



goldessential.com have updated the following Targets as of 31/05/2007:

Short: 658$/oz ↑↑
Medium: 665$/oz ↑↑
Long: 695$/oz ↑↑
http://goldessential.com//index.php?option=com_content&task=blogsection&id=6&Itemid=28 and they conservatively saw resistance is ahead of 665$/oz and 670$/oz.

Whether the demonstrated strong price action of gold can break through this resistance towards the major resistance only time will tell.

Short term view:
ST_Au

Longer term view:

Au_LT







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rederob
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Saturday, June 02, 2007 - 09:47 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hello Kate
Please ask gold to go down again.
You have a way with gold that I like.

 
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