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Archive through March 21, 2004

Chart Forum » Gold & Precious Metals » GOLD-Anyone for tea? » Archive through March 21, 2004

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helloworld
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Saturday, February 22, 2003 - 10:28 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



And what do you think of the recent evolution of PoG? Was I right to buy some, and is it still a good opportunity? Or is it now too high?


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optimist
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Saturday, February 22, 2003 - 10:40 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Seems to me an OK move! May have to be prepared to hang in a while if the Iraq situation is resolved. I,m sure there are plenty of economic hiccups yet to come which should make gold look good barring an almost complete collapse of the US dollar versus the A$.As you bought in A$'s you must monitor the A$ POG not the US price .
Aust gold stocks should provide more leverage as the price of gold rises but the bullion eliminates the risks in stock selection.







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rederob
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Saturday, March 06, 2004 - 10:55 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



POG recently eclipsed the 1996 peak of just under $420/oz seen on the first chart of this post.
In reading all the posts between there are some very interesting points.
Most notable is that few of the charted stock are now higher in price than when discussed, despite gold continuing to trend up.
A key reason is that in AUD terms, gold has declined considerably in price - often over AU$600/oz on 2003, but presently at nearer AU$520.
There are many schools of thought on gold, so what you want to believe is up to you.
Foremost, gold is not a commodity in that it does not act as a commodity. Rather, it is a store of value, a hedge against risk, and a potential hard currency.
I hold 5 gold stock and am technically over-exposed (it not being wise to have 20% of portfolio in one narrow sector.
Perhaps foolishly, I believe the US markets will succumb to debt in the next few years, and that we will see the Euro slowly sneak in as the world's reserve currency.
Furthermore, I see too many similarities between the overheated 2000 US equities market and today's markets.
I do not believe that historically high PEs are here to stay and think investors will demand more - but not find it in equities.
Subscribing to create's ealier post quoting Weinstein, ""There is an old saying among technicians -- "the bigger the base, the bigger the move".
Gold has a substantial base and is still early into what is called by many as a secular bull market for gold.
Now that Mr Costello has given me the opportunity to watch my investments for another 40 years I will see if patience can be a virtue.


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eblode
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Tuesday, March 09, 2004 - 01:14 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Red,
According to FAT Prohets they feel Gold will hit $US500. by December. Whats your opinion? I'm holding GBG in anticipation of that Merry Christmas.
Eugenio


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mosaic1996
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Tuesday, March 09, 2004 - 01:18 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi All,
When does the restriction/cap of Central Bank gold sales end?
Cheers,
Mosaic


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dirty_red
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Tuesday, March 09, 2004 - 01:22 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Officially toward the end of this year but I believe it is currently being negotiated with a view to a new agreement being in place in next month or two. Restrictions likely to be significantly relaxed.

DR


Dont put your hope in ungodly men, or be a slave to what somebody else believes. If you need somebody you can trust, Trust yourself. - Bob Dylan

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mosaic1996
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Tuesday, March 09, 2004 - 01:29 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi DR,

End of September from memory. I would look at a chart of gold in Rand to best guage likely direction/impact for gold price in usd$/aud$.

Cheers,
Mosaic


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mosaic1996
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Tuesday, March 09, 2004 - 01:37 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Back to the reason behind my original post: I would be skeptical of usd$500 by the end of the year unless the usd$ weakens substantially.

Is recent gold price strength a pump and dump (short) in anticipation of larger Central Bank sales after September 30? I have no idea, but I see it as a possibility.

But gold being gold, I could easily be surprised.

I have not followed gold closely for several [10?] years, so I am a bit out of touch (no idea really) with the fundamentals/supply and demand.

Cheers,
Mosaic


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archer
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Tuesday, March 09, 2004 - 01:46 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi guys
It was announced last night
March 8 (Bloomberg) -- European central banks will limit their sales of gold to 500 tons annually over the next five years, renewing a five-year old accord that has helped boost gold prices.
Gold yawned at the announcement
Gold has become a currency again as the US dollar
will self destruct within a decade


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mosaic1996
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Tuesday, March 09, 2004 - 02:10 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Many gold producers used to sell forward their production. The practice of forward selling has been wound back significantly over the last few years.

What impact would this rundown of forward sales have on Central Bank gold holding, and Central bank income, and on the supply of physical gold sold?

Cheers,
Mosaic


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archer
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Tuesday, March 09, 2004 - 02:16 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Funnily enough the poms are not selling any more gold
Their central bank sold hundreds of tons at the very
very bottom of the market and whats
worse is they used the money to purchase foreign
currencies which have depreciated ever since
What a bunch off clowns


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scalper
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Tuesday, March 09, 2004 - 02:50 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



"Gold Prospects Investor's Day"

Free event, being held in Brisbane, Sydney, Melbourne

MElb. March 28 10am to 4pm

Further details www.australiangoldinvestment.com

Companies presenting: Kinsgate,Red 5, Austindo, Ballarat,Anglogold,Pan-Aus, Goldlink Capital, Croesus, Avoca, Cullen, Gindalbie, Gold Bullion, Independence Grp, Bendigo.

Have no ties with the above, but it is Free, and on a day my markets are closed, and knowing Melb's shitty weather might be a good day out.

Might encourage me further to go to the "Diggers & Dealers Do" later in the year.

Anyone interested in the Melb one, e-mail me if you want to catch up for coffee.


Cheers


Scalper


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mosaic1996
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Tuesday, March 09, 2004 - 02:55 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Archer,

Do you have a link to the deal for ongoing Central bank sales?

Cheers,
Mosaic


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archer
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Tuesday, March 09, 2004 - 03:01 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Sure Mosaic
Heres two

http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=Sto ryFT&cid=1078381599923
http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=71000001&refer=top_world_news&sid=aRVBw _gVWZz0


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mosaic1996
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Wednesday, March 10, 2004 - 03:19 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Archer,

Thanks for the links.

Apart from the increase 100 tonnes from Central bank sales, the other negative in the back of my mind is the impact on supply of gold is the unwinding of forward sales.

As I haven't followed gold for many years now, I have only really given cursory thought to the likely impact of the reduction in forward sale programs, so I could be way off target, and I would be interested in your views.

My basic understanding and interpretation (which could easily be wrong) of the situation is this:

FORWARD SALES
Investment Banks (acting on behalf of gold miners) would borrow gold for a Central Bank at a relatively low interest rate (say 2%) for a set period of time. They then sell the borrowed gold into the spot market and invest the proceeds into treasuries or some such interest bearing instrument at a higher interest rate (say 5.5%). The Investment Bank would enter into an agreement with the gold miner for the miner to repay the gold to the Central Bank from future production. The miner and the IB would share the interest differential in some set proportion, and obviously the minor would receive the spot gold price as well when the treasuries matured. This arrangement translated to a future gold price (spot plus accrued interest) much higher than the current spot.

A LOT LESS FORWARD SALES
Declining interest rates has reduced the attractiveness of forward sales.
A number of the largest hedgers have been taken out of the picture (e.g. Normandy by Barricks or was it Placer Dome).

THE EFFECT OF UNWINDING FORWARD SALES ON SUPPLY
A portion of production goes to replace borrowed gold at Central Banks, and the rest of production is sold into the spot market. Incidentally, much of this repaid gold would be sold as part of Central Bank sales - so it wouldn't make it back into the vaults.

Whilst I haven't researched this, I suspect that forward sale books are being unwound, rather than replaced. I believe that this means that the trend is for a larger percentage of production to be sold into the spot market. I suspect that this trend will continue (although it could be close to completion/stabilisation), and this will place additional supplies into the market..

GOLD AS A STORE OF VALUE
I believe that gold has lost most of its' relevance as a store of value for countries mainly because with globalisation of the capital markets it is very easy to move money/assets around the world. Is costs money to store a physical asset such as gold, whereas you are invest cash in interest bearing securities.

The only reason that Central Banks are willing to curtail sales of gold reserves is to protect gold producers in developing countries (especially Africa). I believe that this puts a cap on gold prices as this consideration by Central Banks would not extend to allowing these producers to make super profits at their expense.

Gold is still viewed as a store of value in the Middle East, China, India, Asia, etc, but will this change as these economies grow and the people become more affluent. In the short term at least, gold demand is likely to increase.

WHAT IF IT REALLY HITS THE FAN
A silly but interesting observation is to think what the price of gold would be if the USA had to sell a large chunk of their gold to repay debt. Would this be necessary if the USD$ self-destructs as you have predicted.

Cheers,
Mosaic


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rederob
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Wednesday, March 10, 2004 - 07:43 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Mosaic
Renewal of the "washington Agreement" in September will stabilise Central Bank sales amongst member nations.
Over the past few years Central Bank sales have had a negligible affect on the climbing gold price.
Indeed, as we are notified of these events AFTER the sales, you will generally see that durning the bulk sales POG moved marginally if at all.
The "forward sales" issues you raise are quite moot.
Overall there is little transparency of physical gold holdings in banks, and the extent that they are unable to cover their loans would likely see a major crisis and massive spike in the gold price.
Reg Howe's legal case against Barrick presents lots of facts and figures (his website is goldensextant.com where there are also links to relevant sites).
I personally regard "forward sales" as one of the multitude of factors impacting POG.
When all boils down, the simple fact is that for many years gold supply has not met demand.
Your views on gold as a store of value are interesting.
Western economies cannot afford for gold to be a true store of value as the greenback is the world's reserve currency and gold is its mortal enemy.
Whereas we once had a "gold standard", we now measure our currencies against the US dollar.
The problem Western nations have is that they buy US dollar bonds to preserve the system, as it were.
But as the USD devalues, where does that leave them?
The answer is that they are buying into weakness and losing their nation's purchasing power by doing so.
Imagine Australia buying gold rather than USD over recent years.
The greenback is now worth only AU$1.33 today, whereas over a year ago it was worth around AU$2.00: While gold in AUD terms has typically ranged between AU$500 and AU$600 over the past 4 years (aside from Feb 2003 spike).
So gold is a much safer store of value.
For European countries gold has been exceptionally stable in price against the euro and would prove a great store of value.
I think investors in European countries and Russia probably are accumulating more bullion than elsewhere in the world (no I don't have data to back this up).
Yet you suggest Asian and Middle Eastern nations would "value" gold more.
Certainly Asia and Middle East nations are individual consumers and jewellery is a major display of their wealth (even in the UK many young Indian women call their gold bracelets "tickets" as they can cash them in for a plane ticket back home!).
Westerners prefer to store/hoard gold as a hedge against catastrophes (a generalisation, I know).
Although this may ramble, the reality is that gold markets are infinitely unfathomable, but for the overarching trend in price, which is up.
I cannot see POG tumbling in the near nor medium term as there are too many price drivers that will continue to force the price up.
Apart form any geopolitical event, in the medium term the next significant price driver will be an increase in US interest rates.
Until then gold will rollercoaster to greater highs with frightening dips for the unworldly - "I want to get off NOW".



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rederob
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Wednesday, March 10, 2004 - 08:00 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



I forgot to add that the Washington Agreement has no binding nature on the parties in that is not enforceable - these are gentlemen of honour!!
More importantly, they are not obliged to sell their gold, just limit overall sales.
They can even increase their holdings if they want.
The Agreement prevented mass dumpings of gold (as the UK gov't once did to their nation's detriment), thereby maintaining a relatively stable gold price (their treasuries could rest assured that the boat would not rock).
The question I would ask in the present environment of steadily increasing gold prices is why you would want to sell an appreciating asset?
Certainly if POG takes a clear turn for the worse, sell some: But if that happens their wealth decreases as their gold reserves are downwardly revalued - interesting conundrum!




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archer
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Thursday, March 11, 2004 - 02:55 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Off the top of my head
Gold demand approaching 4000 tons and rising
Gold supply 2800 tons and falling
CBs fill the hole
I agree with rob re CB leasing-No transparency
Fort knox has not been audited for over 3 decades
Some good gold analysts think half the gold is
already gone
A LOT LESS FORWARD SALES --Yes why would you in a
rising market.Indeed why not do the opposite and hold
the gold and sell down the track at a higher price
Some companies are doing just that
Barrick was the inventor of the forward gold sale
and they have now stopped as they see gold continuing
to rise Barrick claim they made over 2 billion through
this practice but as gold approaches 500 they will have
given it all back in lost opportunity cost as they have
to deliver into their hedges and cannot sell at the
higher prices
There hedge book goes out 10 to 15 years
--THE EFFECT OF UNWINDING FORWARD SALES ON SUPPLY --
The gold is making it back to the vaults-just in
different countries
Look to history to see that he who has the gold has
the power
Early in the 20th century the US fixed the price of
gold at a very cheap 35 dollars and then set about
accumulating huge reserves at these cheap prices
even confiscating it from its own people by making it illegal to own gold
Once it had all it needed it simply readjusted the price
to 60 dollars and went on to become the world superpower
To find the next superpower follow the trail of gold
--GOLD AS A STORE OF VALUE --
For at least 5000 years gold has been the base on which
we built our financial systems
Last century this base was dismantled by the CBs simply
because it was in their interests( this is a long story and one i wont go into here-eg the reserve banks and the
fractional reserve system) and as a result the fiat
currency system is in the process of crumbling
Remember the US is already in its 3rd paper money attempt
--Gold is still viewed as a store of value in the Middle East, China, India, Asia---
and this will continue for a long time as the citizens of
those countries have a huge distrust of their governments
in regard to paper money
---WHAT IF IT REALLY HITS THE FAN --
Its already on its way to the fan
America is printing massive amounts of paper dollars
This devalues their currency so everything else goes up
in value relatively
Look at the CRB Index-Thats a multi decade breakout
Resources and commodities are going nuts and governments
keep saying there is no inflation
Gold can see through the lies
all the best---Archer---




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rederob
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Thursday, March 11, 2004 - 08:35 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Concurrence, Archer, is hard to take for we contrarians.
Aside from religious definitions of the "golden rule", it is also that "he who has the gold, makes the rules".
So can we conclude that those who are now accumulating gold, particularly China, are positioning themselves to "make the rules".
I know this is a digression from stock markets per se, but start to follow the logic.
We already know that China is growing at a massive pace, and it is committed to increasing its gold reserves.
Why should China worry about having gold reserves?
Well, its yuan (or renminbi, which in Chinese means "people's currency") is pegged to USD. So if the USD crumbles, as some economists see as possible, it own currency would follow suit.
This is an endemic problem with fiat currencies, and gives hope for some sort of a gold standard to be revisited.
And this is where gold ownership is vital in the equation as there is no other "store of value" that has broader acceptance and is practical at the same time.
We have accepted the greenback as the world's reserve currency as it once had backing (via gold) and a strong economy.
As the US economy is slowly overwhelmed by Asia's tigers, what will we accept as our reserve currency (given that the US is not supporting its fiat currency with tangible assets)?
Will there be an intermediate drift to the euro which is supported my a unified Economic Community?
In the absence of a gold standard, what can prevent a major crisis in our principal currencies (be it near term or long term)?
As I try to answer some of these questions the role of gold seems fundamental.
Certainly, when put alongside the present gold supply anomaly, it gives me faith that gold is at the early stages of a long secular bull market.



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rederob
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Friday, March 12, 2004 - 04:09 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Almost unnoticed by the markets, POG in AUD terms has rocketed over $35 (7%) in the past fortnight from its lows.
Can't see this reflected by increasing mining company share prices.
This is largely because the media focus on the USD price of gold, which has steadied around $400 recently and - shock, horror - represents a massive decline (also only 7%) from its earlier peak.
Gold is holding close to its 100dma and has stood up to selldowns by increasing its euro price.
In euro terms gold dropped to around 315 a fortnight ago before peaking near 328 yesterday, and falling to the 325-326 range today.
This suggests the momentum has returned to buyers and gold's upside should soon resume.


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rederob
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Friday, March 19, 2004 - 09:50 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



A week later gold is up US$10/oz to trade around $410.
While weakness in the greenback contributed to a recent price rally, the momentum from euro buyers is strong with gold currently at 332eurodollars.
In AUD terms we are seeing gold nearing $550/oz (briefly touched on overnight trading).
These movements leave gold susceptible to currency volatility with a pullback to mid$395 a slight possibility (Bin Laden's Afghanistan outpost presently being attacked by Pakistani soldiers!!).
What we see clearly is a resumption of gold's uptrend coinciding with the supportive factors that propelled its price late in 2003.
It is highly improbable that the greenback's return to strength is sustainable as America's debt levels continue to hit unprecedented levels.
Accordingly, further appreciation of the euro can be expected, with consequent rises in gold's price.


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archer
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Friday, March 19, 2004 - 11:23 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi rederob
I agree with your MARCH 11 post as i see the balance of power shifting from the west back to the east
Gold looking good,silver too
Vangold [web] commences drilling at Feni Gold Project
http://www.integratir.com/newsrelease.asp?news=2130827397&ticker=V.VAN&lang=EN


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rederob
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Saturday, March 20, 2004 - 01:19 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



While some analysts are talking about gold being a currency play of late, the reality is the opposite.
Gold has climbed in euro terms - now to 335.50euro - almost 20euro up from its lows last month.
In AUD terms gold is exceptionally strong, closing the week out just over $550 (increasing about $35 in 3 weeks).
Looking at prior euro-gold prices, a target price of 350euro would be a reasonable bet.
That would see gold in US terms above its January high, and give funds a good reason to jump back on board.
Over the next 2-3 months gold will have another tilt at the elusive US$450 mark by my reckoning, before pulling up for another breather and consolidation phase.
As we see the DOW on tenterhooks, overstretched by unsustainable PEs and massive debt within the national economy, a flight to gold seems inevitable later this year.
In the interim, the threat of terrorists acts may give gold the short term fillip it needs to technically appear attractive to suh trend buyers.


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rayj
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Saturday, March 20, 2004 - 07:49 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



GBG had a good run last few days. LHG turning and red as well.

these look like my favourites for a run over next few weeks.

Any others with strong technical credentials????

Ray







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rederob
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Sunday, March 21, 2004 - 07:56 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Gindalbie is a small producer (around 10,000oz per quarter) with a high cash cost (about $400/oz last quarter). Its price was dragged down recently by a 16cent entitlement issue, which generally will see some profit taking capping uptrends. Gindalbie's promise lies with Bobby McGee's outstanding gold drilling results (reported last October) which propelled its price to a hefty peak of 27cents from 18cents the previous day. In the absence of further announcements GBG will take some time to close in on last October's peak. However, with 2,400 kilometres to explore, something else will turn up.

Lehir remains racked with more problems than you could poke a stick at. While it has bounced on technicals, on fundamentals it is conceivable that further price pressure will befall the stock over the year. Its saving short term grace is a recovery in the gold price, which gives us hope that its massive gold reserves might again be profitably mined.
Technically and fundamentally NEM is a much better stock than LHG in the present environment.




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GOLD-Anyone for tea? Archive through February 11, 2005rederob25 11-Feb-05  10:36 pm
GOLD-Anyone for tea? Archive through February 02, 2005chance25 02-Feb-05  08:27 pm
GOLD-Anyone for tea? Archive through January 26, 2005goldbug25 26-Jan-05  10:46 am
GOLD-Anyone for tea? Archive through December 09, 2004justice25 09-Dec-04  12:11 pm
GOLD-Anyone for tea? Archive through December 02, 2004rederob25 02-Dec-04  07:42 am
GOLD-Anyone for tea? Archive through November 27, 2004captain_chaza25 27-Nov-04  12:25 pm
GOLD-Anyone for tea? Archive through November 19, 2004ingot5425 19-Nov-04  09:29 pm
GOLD-Anyone for tea? Archive through October 25, 2004rederob25 25-Oct-04  06:46 pm
GOLD-Anyone for tea? Archive through October 07, 2004colin_twiggs25 07-Oct-04  01:26 pm
GOLD-Anyone for tea? Archive through September 26, 2004archer25 26-Sep-04  02:09 pm
GOLD-Anyone for tea? Archive through August 17, 2004rederob25 17-Aug-04  10:03 pm
GOLD-Anyone for tea? Archive through July 12, 2004archer25 12-Jul-04  06:55 pm
GOLD-Anyone for tea? Archive through June 23, 2004archer25 23-Jun-04  09:52 am
GOLD-Anyone for tea? Archive through February 10, 2003create25 10-Feb-03  12:44 pm

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