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Archive through June 23, 2004

Chart Forum » Gold & Precious Metals » GOLD-Anyone for tea? » Archive through June 23, 2004

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rederob
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Thursday, March 25, 2004 - 08:38 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



The present geopolitical environment has pushed up gold's price to within cooeee of its January high.
Today trading at over 340euro, gold is eagerly sought in European markets as it hones in on a 350euro/oz target near term.
Encouragingly for Oz miners, gold sits nicely over AU$550/oz ($557 at morning opening). Despite this, few stock have reaped a similar percentage reward from the AUD gold price increase.
From a currency perspective, a prospective interest rate hike in Europe fell on the euro and pushed up the greenback. It may be some time before the euro reaches US$1.30 again. That said, the US economy is not so sound that the greenback cannot sink considerably before year's end. Massive personal and national debt have not yet taken its toll on American markets, and it's just a matter of time before the tide turns.
These factors contribute to a healthy future environment for gold.


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rederob
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Saturday, April 03, 2004 - 08:52 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Overnight US non-farm payroll data added 308,000 jobs to the US economy and knocked the euro for six (down 2.3 eurocents).
Yet the euro gold price remains strong at 347eurodollars, while gold in AUD remains above $555.
In a week that took COMEX gold (at $333) to its highest price since August 1988 on Thursday and open interest at a dizzy number, it needed a prick (and I can't say Dubya was responsible this time) to burst the bubble on Friday.
The market buzz on gold is overwhelmingly positive despite the jobs data raining on its parade and we are likely to see gold consolidating in the $420+ vicinity.
Expect some downward revision of the jobs data by next month - a regular theme - and a slight rebound of the euro next week.
Although it appears gold is moving in a sizeable daily dollar range at the moment, contrast it to silver that moved last night in a 5% range ($7.93 - $8.31)
The maxim of precious metals moving in line with base metals at the broader level continues to hold true.
Given the positive US jobs data, we can expect this trend to hold for many months to come.







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rederob
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Saturday, April 17, 2004 - 02:03 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Interesting to see CRS and OXR in the list of weekly worst performers (ASX 200.
Perhaps not surprising given that USD gold prices tumbled sharply before climbing back to around $400/oz.
In AUD terms, gold at $537.50 still reaps good profits for OXR and CRS so share price movements short term are not an impact on these company's fortunes.
The real weakness in gold stems from its eurodollar price stumpling from the high 340's to 333.65 at yesterday's close.
Gold's prognosis is still healthy.
Remember that COMEX gold first closed above $400/oz on 1 December 2003 after many years in the wilderness.
It has closed below $400 on 18 days so far in 2004, with the trend suggesting a continuation of ever higher lows amid erratic and short-lived highs.



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rederob
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Saturday, April 24, 2004 - 09:57 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



US spot gold closed the week down on last week at $395, although up for last 2 days of the week.
Gold at $333.62eurodollars is unchanged over the week, and at AU$539.61 represents a slight increase.
Support at US$390 held up, and the trend suggests a consolidation at higher prices in near term with good buyer interest.
US dollar strength was the key driver of a lower gold price, and Friday night was supported by exceptionally strong durable goods orders - 5 times above forecast!
That said, the greenback's run is near an end the euro is likely to rebound slightly over coming weeks.
DOW overnight failed to build on Thursdays' great result, despite Microsoft posting good outcomes, and Corning doing likewise.
Although the US economy appears to be improving, the stock markets suggest cautious optimism rather than bullishness.
I consider the prognosis for gold to be very sound near term with late year prospects to be markedly better for its price.


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sabretoothed
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Wednesday, May 05, 2004 - 10:00 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Closed on 393 last night. Gold starting to stir again. ASX gold index gold be close to support?




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rederob
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Wednesday, May 05, 2004 - 10:47 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



sabretoothed
COMEX gold dipped to a low of $380.60 last Thursday (previously that low on 7 November 2003), and is now attracting some firm buying support.
With US interest rates now on hold at 1% for at least another month, gold should consolidate a little.
More interesting is weakness in US equities, with the DOW failing to rise with general economic improvement.
My prognosis is that an inflationary push is well underway in the US with energy costs in particular a thorn in their side.
Greenspan may be able to print money on demand, but he does not control the oil tap. Methinks the US economy is in for a very bumpy ride in months to come.
As a quick aside, the US commodities index has turned up this week, which is a proxy for industrial demand rebounding - copper leading the way. That said, US consumption of aluminium is draining their warehouses so watch closely how the big alumina producers move on the ASX in coming weeks.


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sabretoothed
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Wednesday, May 05, 2004 - 12:36 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Yes, but OIL may be reduced as Bush runs up to the election, Saudis may reduce the price, if Bush pays them enough :P




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rederob
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Wednesday, May 05, 2004 - 09:59 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Interesting theory sabretoothed - but can't see how Dubya could "hide" billion$$$ oil for votes payments to the Saudi's.
Anyhow, oil now has the " US driving season" premium and the "terrorist sabotage/act" premium built into its price. If Asian oil demand keeps up it's hard to see less than US$30/bbl in the medium term. My pessimism in USD value actually puts the price over $40 into 2005, but that's just my hunch - no empirical evidence.
Back to gold briefly.
Nice consolidation with slight upside so far this week, with price of $393/oz testing the 200dma.
The probability is that USD highside was achieved last week, and euro is firming against it. Indeed, in eurodollar terms the price of gold has barely changed in a week.
With Asian markets largely offline till next week, and UK markets coming out of an early week slumber, trading is thinner than usual. My expectation is that gold will break $400 possibly late next week, with a continuing uptrend in theme for some months to come.



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sabretoothed
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Wednesday, May 05, 2004 - 10:05 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



I guess probably all these countries hate bush, thus they won't care if he loses the election.

USA is not in high oil demand season though, as winter is the peak period and they are approaching Summer which should reduce demand, unless they take their SUV tanks on holiday :-)





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rederob
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Thursday, May 06, 2004 - 07:34 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



GW Bush is seriously good news for gold. In the improbable event he wins another term we can look forward to 4 more years of positive gold action.
His war on terror maintains the "premium" on gold's safe haven status.
A spurious correlation shows that in recent times Democrat presidents are bad news for the gold price!


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rederob
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Tuesday, May 11, 2004 - 08:30 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



The big dipper for gold last week was the eurogold price falling apart under a strengthening dollar.
To see what difference a day makes, kitco shows this for Monday 10th:

Remember that barely a month ago gold was nearing euro$350.
An interesting gold price trend is its present plateauing of 100dma's in key currencies and in AUD term.
Clearly it will need to break up or down, and in the immediate short term the maths dictate it be down.
Today's bounceback of gold is encouraging but we need more time to see how sustaining the move is.
Last week UBS downgraded by US$25 (to $422) the 2004 average price of gold.
Not an ominous portend at all as in 2005 UBS are forecasting gold to average $455 including an early year peak of $470.
With the average daily gold price dropping in April from $426 to $376 (or 13%) in about 6 weeks the goldbugs have surely been downtrodden, but not wholly crushed yet.
I keep watch on base metals as well, and I consider its index useful in determining sentiment - the index turned up last week.
I have not moved from my view that gold's best is to come in the 3rd quarter of this year when I think US equities will begin a significant downward spiral.
In the meantime gold's lustre may seem hazy to some.
But with consistently higher lows and higher highs gold's reputation is only tarnished by those who place too much emphasis on narrow and short term influences.
In closing, it's instructional to note that the AUD gold price remains above $540 ($543 at time of writing) and our local miners continue to do well for the most part.


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sabretoothed
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Wednesday, May 12, 2004 - 06:59 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Gold 3.81 and rising, do we have a runner??????




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rederob
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Wednesday, May 12, 2004 - 07:16 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Punt for and even $400 and we have a bolter.
Sadly, I think the tea leaves suggest a few weeks away at best.
But I like your optimism, sabretoothed, and trust you can sway the world markets accordingly.
:p


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rederob
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Sunday, May 16, 2004 - 08:07 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



No real change to the AUD price of gold over the week - presently at AU$544.
The euro price is similarly close week on week - presently $317eurodollars.
How much further can the greenback strengthen?
Doubt if it has much more run it, and I think it lacks the strength to crush gold's inevitable retrace.
We are likely at the crossroad, as gold's overbought status has little left in it.




The above chart indicates we could see gold near US$500 on its next upleg if we extrapolate the gold price against the HUI.
What is evident is that the US economy is markedly different to a year ago, but the DOW's direction is currently running counter.
The golden bears' winter is nearing, if not already upon us.


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sabretoothed
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Wednesday, May 26, 2004 - 09:25 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Gold closed 388 :-)

Needs to break 390 to be back in business...




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sabretoothed
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Friday, May 28, 2004 - 09:25 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



395 now and rising.

Any commments regarding the break thru 390 resistance?




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goldbug
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Monday, May 31, 2004 - 07:22 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



st
needs to trade and hold above 390 to confirm a possible test of previous highs...

regards

goldbug


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sabretoothed
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Monday, May 31, 2004 - 07:28 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hiya,

Isn't it doing that now :P




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rederob
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Monday, May 31, 2004 - 09:59 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Gold presently above 200dma and rising-to-steady in absence of US/UK bourse trading tonight.



RSI certainly suggests that more upside is in train: Note previous gold highs in above chart - this run should move to around 70, taking gold well over $400.
If geopolitical tensions (read Middle East/Saudi) intensify over the week then POG over $400 is a dead cert.
Weakening of the greenback is also propelling gold.
In euro terms gold has risen slightly week on week, presently trading at almost 324eurodollars.
Although the AUD is improving against the greenback, it remains weak against other key currencies and POG is currently about AU$552.
Fundamentals are strongly aligned in gold's favour at the moment and the present upleg should breach $450 before next major correction - my guestimate is a POG correction nearer US$490 as I believe that when POG is closing in on US$500 inflationary fears will have driven down the DOW and the lustrous metal will become a beacon for those needing to preserve value.



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vermante
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Wednesday, June 09, 2004 - 10:58 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Gold was asked the question yesterday at recent highs -$US 395 (resistance) and failed the test -

Is the market dismissing US M2 concerns , Fiscal and Trade deficits and geo-political uncertainty and backing the FED to re-ignite the mighty U.S economy ?

A break of support for gold at $U.S. 388 could signal Market agreement !

Cheers

Vermante



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rederob
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Wednesday, June 09, 2004 - 11:41 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Vermante
I liken goldbugs to rollercoaster riders.
A lot of faith, and eyes are often closed when the dips are hit at full tilt, and the false teeth are being sucked from your cheeks.
The 200dma has been tested and re-tested recently, and failed.
If the 400dma is broken, then head for the hills.
That said, at a fundamental level there is strong physical buying support on gold's dips.
Recent POG movements have strongly traced USD movements.
An interesting current local analysis of gold is found at:
http://www.research.comsec.com.au/ResearchFiles/P/PreciousViews8June2004.pdf
Comsec's medium term view is useful, but I believe their long term view reflects a failure to understand the current gold cycle and the many factors that drive its price.
There is one market certainty and it has yet to be realised: It is that value cannot be created from printing presses (US money supply), and that when it is, its affects are temporary.
Just as the tech bubble burst, so will the fiat money bubble created by Greenspan to ride the US through recent tough economic times. Not all dollars are created equal, but an ounce of gold is always an ounce of gold.
I remain the little pig building a house from stone rather than straw so that I don't have to worry about the wolf at the door.


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vermante
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Wednesday, June 09, 2004 - 12:24 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Redrob,

Technical Level

All the articles in the world wont change the "compass" reading . The facts are that gold has failed to penetrate resistance , either the 200 day moving average or U.S $395 .(Which ever "compass one uses to gauge market direction) .Prudence suggests resisting market entry until these barriers are over come -

Fundamental Level

Sure - One can put forward very positive arguments why Gold IS GOOD- and you have on several instances done so quite convincingly

However(IMHO)the probability of success improves once the technicals and the fundamentals line up .

Cheers

Vermante

N.B. - MBG - the price of Tin keeps going through the roof ,(severe shortages) and yet MBG price remains well below the 200 dy moving average. In fact not far off all time lows . The technicals are not confirming the fundamentals




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rederob
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Wednesday, June 09, 2004 - 04:01 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Vermante
You are right.
The south pole is always south on a map.
Technical entries are great.
Yet they are never definitive of the greater overall movement up or down.
We make our decisions on what we are comfortable with - I respect that.
MBG is interesting.
I have only fleetingly looked at it.
My suspicion is that MBG locked into supplying tin at a price well before the lid came of the tin price - forward delivery contracts perhaps?
If MBG had spot delivery in place they would certainly be doing well financially, regardless of what equity markets think.
Which is my next point.
I note that even the biggest/best stock analysts can be very far out with their predictions prior to companies reporting.
This can be the case even when company's dealings are transparent to the market.
In the mining sector where some company hedge books can be complicated, and hedges deferred, it is impossible to do other than "best guess".
Maybe no-one has the courage to best guess MBG.
I do not know and won't even hazard a guess. Tin is not my cup of tea.



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sabretoothed
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Wednesday, June 23, 2004 - 09:44 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Vermente gold seems to be having trouble getting over 397.

Is it waiting for the US rate hike, and if the rate hike doesn't occur will it drop again, these are good questions...

I doubt we will have rate hike so close to an election?

What is the 200 day moving average on gold, since I can't get it on my charting program at present...








AFX UK Focus) 2004-06-22 23:57 GMT:
RPT - Gold prices approach key 400 usd level ahead of US rate hike - UPDATE

Article layout: raw
(Repeating for technical reasons)

SAN FRANCISCO (AFX) - Gold futures prices closed with a 1 usd gain and edged closer to the 400 usd level Tuesday, with traders anticipating an interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold for August delivery closed at 395.50 an ounce, up 1 usd. Prices have now climbed in three of the last four sessions.

"Gold is toying with the key 400 usd level again on the back of flight to quality -- real physical quality," said Kevin Kerr, a senior trader at Kwest International in New York.

Kerr added he expects gold to "stay buoyed in this range" at least until the US central bank's Federal Open Market Committee begins a two-day policy meeting June 29. "Volatility leading up to it could be strong."

Gold is "feeling the brunt of the interest-rate waiting game, which is likely to now be a nonevent," Kerr explained, noting that most analysts already expect the Fed to raise its target for short-term interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point.

On Tuesday, the dollar strengthened against the euro and yen, taking away some of gold's investment demand. Prices traded as high as 397.40 usd earlier in the session.

In other metals trading, July silver rose by 0.7 cent to close at 5.867 usd per ounce. July copper slipped by 3.15 cents, or 2.6 pct, to close at 1.1635 usd per pound.

Meanwhile, September palladium lost 5.25 usd to end the session at 224 usd an ounce, and July platinum shed 75 usd to close at 808.90 usd an ounce.



(Message edited by sabretoothed on June 23, 2004)

(Message edited by sabretoothed on June 23, 2004)







If brokers knew how to make money why are they still working?

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archer
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Wednesday, June 23, 2004 - 09:52 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Wont be long now
gold

 
Other Threads  
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GOLD-Anyone for tea? Archive through February 02, 2005chance25 02-Feb-05  08:27 pm
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GOLD-Anyone for tea? Archive through December 09, 2004justice25 09-Dec-04  12:11 pm
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