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     sabretoothed
Member
Username: sabretoothed
Post Number: 669
Registered: 03-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, June 23, 2004 - 11:59 am: | 
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Wow, that's an amazing candle 
What symbol do you use in stockcharts to get gold? I can't seem to find one in bigcharts.com
If brokers knew how to make money why are they still working?
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sabretoothed
Member
Username: sabretoothed
Post Number: 686
Registered: 03-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, June 23, 2004 - 03:36 pm: |
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Gold rising again, 396, we need it to crack that 400 level )
If brokers knew how to make money why are they still working?
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vermante
Member
Username: vermante
Post Number: 157
Registered: 11-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, June 23, 2004 - 04:36 pm: |
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Sabertoothed
Technically , Arthur's graph says it all , yet to penetrate the 200 dy MA and $400 reistance(my preference). If Gold is forecast to "run riot" in the next couple of years , then the 1st marker of $400 should be easily over come.
Fundamentally-I cannot add more to your research which I believe is the current market perception.
With gold being highly volatile , trading tactics will be crucial
Cheers
Vermante
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rederob
Member
Username: rederob
Post Number: 150
Registered: 10-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, June 23, 2004 - 05:29 pm: |
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There is a school of thought that suggests you only have a true bull market when it is bullish in other major currencies - so in the case of gold it's not just the USD.
In yen terms gold is on a nice steady incline.
But in euro terms we are where we were over 2 years ago.
In AUD terms we have just moved above average POG prices of 3 years ago.
One of the nicer trends to see is how gold in USD terms goes through its annual consolidation phase before launching itself again.
It does appear that the US$372 low of May 10 is behind us now and we are on the next upleg.
If history repeats we are, in rough terms, due for around 9 months of rises before another plunge, with the POG dollar gain in the order of $80 - $100 above the May 10 low.
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rederob
Member
Username: rederob
Post Number: 151
Registered: 10-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, June 24, 2004 - 10:35 pm: |
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There goes first level of resistance, with a bang, not a whimper:
Silver barely in gold's present wake:
faber quisque fortunae suae
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josbarr
Member
Username: josbarr
Post Number: 2
Registered: 03-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, June 25, 2004 - 02:51 am: |
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Up more than $6 today and blasting
through $400 an ounce.
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rederob
Member
Username: rederob
Post Number: 154
Registered: 10-2002Rating: 
Votes: 1
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| | Friday, June 25, 2004 - 05:37 pm: |
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Gold may have set the northern hemisphere abuzz, but did little for the local market.
Even our ferocious fanged feline poster must be dismayed that SGW actually FELL 6cents after both tantalum and gold have bounced.
Lihir clawed up 1cent on massive volumes and Newcrest was up 0.6% or 9cents on moderate volumes.
Aside from those results there was little excitement in precious metals miners.
The real gold story is unfolding in Europe, with POG presently at 330 eurodollars.
In AUD terms gold is currently $575 and, while this a 5% increase over the month, it has not been reflected in the price of Oz producers.
I am personally happy that gold remains low on the radar as the longer it can stay low, the longer and less volatile the bull run.
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rederob
Member
Username: rederob
Post Number: 167
Registered: 10-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, July 02, 2004 - 12:35 pm: |
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Good old ABARE http://www.abare.gov.au/australiancommodities/commods/gold.html today announced that Chinese demand would not impact on POG.
In 2002 ABARE forecast the 2003 gold price to reach US$315/oz (they were only 15% off the mark.
ABARE's 2004 forecast average (see below) implies that gold MUST immediately drop well below US$350 and stay there for the rest of this year.
I wonder what ABARE knows that nobody else does!
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justice
Member
Username: justice
Post Number: 223
Registered: 01-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, July 02, 2004 - 02:49 pm: |
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They know squat.
It's a crap shoot. For every 2 economists you'll find three opinions.
My own observation is that the POG is virtually pegged to the EURO - sometime later this may hopefully change.
However, as far as I can tell the USD is primed for a slow decline.
I am bullish for Gold in the long run.
GO BIGish
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archer
Member
Username: archer
Post Number: 206
Registered: 11-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, July 02, 2004 - 03:25 pm: |
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I have to agree with Justice but in the words of the great
Sargent Shultz--Zey know nussink
Economists are like blind javelin throwers-
Almost useless but they hold the attention of the crowd
The action in Newcrest is anticipating a good gold move
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rederob
Member
Username: rederob
Post Number: 168
Registered: 10-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, July 02, 2004 - 04:54 pm: |
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We seem to have 3 "informed" sources suggesting that gold will go up - maybe I should email ABARE!!
Since last Friday POG is down US$5/oz to around $395 - surviving relatively unscathed from the Fed rate rise.
However, as justice noted, POG in euro has moved down 6 dollars over the week to be $324 eurodollars as I post.
And, the biggest downward move for POG was in AUD terms, dropping AU$15/oz over the week to presently lie at AU$560/oz.
With NYSE being closed Monday in lieu of Independence Day it is hard to see any need for the market to run either way, so a few dollars movement overnight should be the go.
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perler59
Member
Username: perler59
Post Number: 198
Registered: 09-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, July 02, 2004 - 08:25 pm: |
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This is interesting. It was posted in another thread.
http://www.financialsense.com/stormwatch/update.htm
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rederob
Member
Username: rederob
Post Number: 169
Registered: 10-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, July 02, 2004 - 10:40 pm: |
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Gold on viagra at COMEX open?
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justice
Member
Username: justice
Post Number: 225
Registered: 01-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, July 02, 2004 - 11:45 pm: |
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4 hourly and daily charts above.
Of course the good news that interest rates are not likely to move up quickly won't help share prices either.
Or will they? We will live to see.
http://www.briefing.com/Silver/InDepth/StockMarketUpdate.htm
GO BIGish
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justice
Member
Username: justice
Post Number: 227
Registered: 01-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, July 03, 2004 - 02:40 am: |
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Howdy, Perler59,
Great link!
Cheers,
Ice.
GO BIGish
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rederob
Member
Username: rederob
Post Number: 178
Registered: 10-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, July 08, 2004 - 08:55 am: |
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Justice
Your charts on USD were timely.
The tide has turned, with one euro now buying over US$1.23 today and POG settling again over US$400/oz.
The DOW's inability to hold onto any gains is unsettling, although good for gold.
The US interest rate hike caused a slight delay in what continues to be a steady rally since POG's nadir on May 10th.
With oil prices holding firmly above US$35/bbl the flow on effect of higher goods and services charges will fuel inflation.
I anticipate the Fed will increase rates again by September at latest to quell deflationary pressures inherent in maintaining interest rates below inflation.
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justice
Member
Username: justice
Post Number: 228
Registered: 01-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, July 08, 2004 - 08:03 pm: |
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The chart seems to want to spell it out for all.
GO BIGish
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justice
Member
Username: justice
Post Number: 230
Registered: 01-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, July 09, 2004 - 08:46 pm: |
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POG has been leading the EUR upwards this evening.
America's Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge's comments yesterday re: possible terrorist threats leading up to the NOV elections having turbo effect last night.
Story:
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B23C60494%2DF76D%2D454E%2D8A5B% 2DFBAF2B24A470%7D&siteid=bigcharts
3 Month Gold:
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/history.gif?s=FOREX_XAUUSDO&t=f&w=15&a=50&v=d3
3 Month Silver:
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/history.gif?s=FOREX_XAGUSDO&t=f&w=15&a=50&v=d3
GO BIGish
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rederob
Member
Username: rederob
Post Number: 186
Registered: 10-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, July 10, 2004 - 09:44 am: |
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Top two ASX200 performers this week were Lihir and Croesus gold mining companies, with the next 3 also being in commodities - oil, diamonds and platinum.
Although POG is up US$12/oz over the week (closing $407.40), and around 4 eurodollars (closing $328.10 eurodollars), it gained less than 1% in AUD terms to close at AU$563.50.
Friday gold trading was sideways, though strong given POG moved through a US$20 trading range during the week.
Gold needs to break $410 hold above $412 next week to sustain this run.
US dollar weakness remains the key.
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ann
Member
Username: ann
Post Number: 94
Registered: 04-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, July 11, 2004 - 09:27 am: |
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Hi Rederob
I have been meaning to get a post to you for ages. You mentioned the Kondratief [long financial wave]. I always have a worry that working on the 'as it happened before, so it will happen again'. There is always the chance that something has changed in the equation.
Thanks for your funny bit in that awful 'barren of' thread, liked that.
Cheers
Ann
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rederob
Member
Username: rederob
Post Number: 188
Registered: 10-2002Rating: 
Votes: 1
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| | Sunday, July 11, 2004 - 05:03 pm: |
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Ann
Dead right.
The equation has more variables than you could poke a stick at.
Plus, there are Kondratiev "experts" that, like great economists, will have opposing views.
In a nutshell, if you consider the greenback to be in long-term decline (which is supported by a wealth of data) and the debt levels maintained (and expanded on) by the US government to be unsustainable, at some point in time their economy will go belly up.
There does not have to be a single event - like a market crash - to herald in the gloom.
It can roll in like a fog in the night - visible to those with the nous to notice it, but bleedingly obvious the next morning when you get lost trying to find your car in the driveway.
There becomes some important questions for investors/traders.
First, will you try and "right time" your trading or portfolio structure because you don't think you can be caught out.
Or will you take some steps now to "invest" in asset classes that traditionally do better in hard times.
If it is the latter, what are those asset classes?
If the environment turns quickly deflationary, you need to be cashed up rather than rich in debt.
And from an equities perspective, gold and silver should do well.
My personal take on Kondratiev is that the latter part of 2004 but more into 2005 will see the US in a thick fog, although I also see Asia as a whole and China in particular as providing some Aussie insulation in the commodity sectors.
I keep wondering why gold "should" be going as well as it has post-Iraq. I can't see disparate terrorist groups doing anything but pockets of harm rather than national calamity.
So my suspicion is that the clever money is steadily and increasingly a taking a long position on gold - especially the physical commodity.
In any event, I have not in recent years read a single article that has "reasoned" discussion on the pitfalls of gold as an asset class in our current markets. If, as the doubters often suggest, gold has no currency in our modern financial markets, why do Central Banks allow borrowings against it?
The "pro-gold" community often talk about the commodity resuming its role as "money".
I don't know if you need to believe too much more about gold than the fact that it remains universally trusted by the common man (and woman!) as having "value".
As you cannot say the same about fiat currencies (paper money that erode in value), gold seems a good "hold".
All the best.
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ann
Member
Username: ann
Post Number: 97
Registered: 04-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, July 11, 2004 - 07:36 pm: |
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Hi Rederob, I do wish I could 'get a grip' of what you are saying. Most of the time it just whizzez right across the top of my head. I am sure one day I shall be able to get you!!!!!
Kindest regards
Ann
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rederob
Member
Username: rederob
Post Number: 189
Registered: 10-2002Rating:
Votes: 1
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| | Sunday, July 11, 2004 - 09:09 pm: |
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Ann
How's this for a nce picture of what I meant:
I owe the charts to Robert McHugh
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eblode
Member
Username: eblode
Post Number: 83
Registered: 11-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, July 12, 2004 - 10:59 am: |
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Always a sheer pleasure to read your current analysis of the Gold Vs Greenback situation.
Eugenio
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archer
Member
Username: archer
Post Number: 213
Registered: 11-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, July 12, 2004 - 06:55 pm: |
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Hi rederob
Ive taken the liberty of redrawing McHughs charts
I dont like his neckline on the $US chart so i drew a
new blue one.
This ones already broken and measures to 83.5c
Ive also had a bit of fun with the gold chart
In this scenario it goes back to the highs pulls
back and everyone yells triple top-go short
This forms the right shoulder of an inverted H+S
pattern and then when all are bearish on gold it
turns and launches thru the neckline setting sail
for the H+S target of 480
Wouldn't that be nice
All the best
---Archer---
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