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Archive through September 26, 2004

Chart Forum » Gold & Precious Metals » GOLD-Anyone for tea? » Archive through September 26, 2004

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vermante
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Post Number: 169
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Friday, August 20, 2004 - 12:04 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Rederob,

Gold continues its upward move . Next barrier $410 .

The World Gold Council reported an 11% increase in the global demand for gold (including jewellery and retail investment) in the second quarter from the same period last year.(source -Macquarie). No mention of comparative production figures.

Cheers

Vermante


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rederob
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Friday, August 20, 2004 - 12:41 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



vermante
Interesting to see POG up during non-COMEX sessions.
Some historical - and useful - production data is at:
http://www.goldsheetlinks.com/production.htm

More recent data is at WGC site:

http://www.gold.org/value/stats/statistics/gold_demand/index.html

Production data will be updated next Tuesday and be avail at Bloomberg.
The bottom line is an increasing production shortfall, compared to demand.
Now that the funds can see this, they may want to hedge their bets more favourably by increasing the proportion of gold they hold within their portfolios.
Coming at a time when the USD dollar is wilting slightly, and Asian physical demand is increasing, we are looking at a high probability of steady to higher POG.







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vermante
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Friday, August 20, 2004 - 01:50 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Rederob,

Thanks for the links - Looks like Q1,Q2 , met with production shortfalls. Augers well for Gold as it approachers its strongest period.


Cheers

Vermante


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rederob
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Saturday, August 21, 2004 - 09:07 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



With POG moving through a $22 range in six days we should get some consolidation next week, or a slight pullback.



Decisively taking out resistance at $410 has clearly interested funds again.
This is happening as data shows Asian physical demand to have risen in excess of 10% in the first half of this year despite record prices.
I think the biggest plus this week is counter intuitive: The DOW racked up its biggest weekly percentage gain (2.9%) since May 2003.
On what news was the weekly rise predicated?
On Google's listing on the Big Board and on high oil prices - more simply, on greed and fear - not on any economic data of note.
To me it signals a fundamental softness in the US investment psyche.
So when some hard hitting economic data comes along, look forward to pronounced and enduring market moves on the bear side of the ledger.

In other currency terms POG had an outstanding week, closing over AU$570 and euro$335.
By the way, gold's rush correlates nicely to OZ athletes achievements at Athens - more to come, eh.


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archer
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Saturday, August 21, 2004 - 10:13 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Central banks buying gold???
----------------------------

Argentina ensures gold hits record
By Edmund Conway (Filed: 20/08/2004)


Gold prices hit a four-month high yesterday, after it emerged that Argentina bought 42 tonnes of bullion in the first half of the year in an effort to repair its shattered economy.



The precious metal rose $4.50 to $407 an ounce for the first time since prices dropped in mid-April. It was lifted higher by the weaker dollar, which fell almost a cent against the pound, leaving sterling worth $1.8323.

A report from the World Gold Council (WGC) - the organisation that promotes the metal - revealed that Argentina bought a significant amount of gold between January and June in order to lock its wealth into stable investments rather than bonds or equities.

Analysts said other countries may start buying gold again, reversing the worldwide central bank sell-off of the past decade. Almost all western countries have been selling their reserves in exchange for investments with a higher yield.

In Britain, the Treasury earlier this year ruled itself out of selling any more of its gold reserves for the foreseeable future, having sold off half of its store between 1999 and 2001.

Chancellor Gordon Brown sold 395 tonnes at an average price of $275 an ounce, making about 2.3 billion. Economists calculate that he would have made almost 3 billion had he waited until today.

Since Mr Brown's decision, taken at a time when gold was out of favour with investors, the metal has enjoyed a renaissance, with analysts praising its uses as a store of wealth and a hedge against inflation.

The WGC said yesterday that the central bank sell-off slowed in the second quarter, although Switzerland sold 68 tonnes and Portugal 35 tonnes.

It said that consumer demand for the precious metal had risen during the year, although investor enthusiasm had dipped as prices appeared to level off.

James E Burton, chief executive of the WGC, said: "It is important that we are not complacent. The rise in demand for jewellery and retail investment in key markets has been aided by strong economic growth and relative absence of price volatility, but gold's battle for share of wallets remains."

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2004/08/20/cngold20.xml&m enuId=242&sSheet=/money/2004/08/20/ixcity.html


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vermante
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Wednesday, September 01, 2004 - 08:09 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



REDEROB,

Gold continues to move upwards- confirming the technical breakout at $400.Fiscal and Trade deficits , M3 concerns and terrorist activity continue to weigh on the U.S. Dollar.The next target for Gold would be $U.S 430.

For any one interested in taking a position in Gold stocks, Resolute Mining (RSG) in their Diggers and Dealers presentation have a graphic display of -
a)The top 20 odd Gold Producing companies
b)The top 20 odd Gold Companies with Gold Reserves

Cheers


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rederob
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Wednesday, September 01, 2004 - 08:30 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Gold looking good vermante:



No real signs of any recent weakness.
Barely below $405/oz in the past fortnight.
Sadly SGW has gone into administration - but that in itself is good for gold, possibly taking up to 0.5 million ounces out of the market each year.


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keith_s
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Wednesday, September 01, 2004 - 08:47 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Do you think that the POG would move up until 7 Sep 2004?

Cheers

K_s


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vermante
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Thursday, September 02, 2004 - 09:47 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Rederob,

Re-SGW - Could be a fire sale for its assets - Should be interesting to see which company picks up its gold assets.

Buying below the 30 week moving average , certainly comes with enhanced risk . Sole reason why I did not commit to SGW, despite what appeared to be bargain basement prices

Note- Not many Gold companies appear to reporting budget or above budget production figures.

Cheers

Vermante


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rederob
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Thursday, September 02, 2004 - 11:30 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



keith
Short-term time frames are too hard with gold.
Most likely there will be little change over the next week.

vermante
Steady results mostly as AUD price of gold was subdued.
I think 2004/5 results will be considerably better, especially if POG takes its traditional trip north over next 6 months - our dollar has slid such that POG is presently AU$580/oz and continuing to climb.
All the best


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rederob
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Friday, September 03, 2004 - 06:50 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Irrespective of non-farm pay roll figures out from the US tonight, gold has held up very well since breaking over $400 in mid-August.
Weak US employment data most likely will propel gold over $410 again, with the opposite happening if more jobs are created than expected.
However, any negative sentiment will be counteracted by a Labour Day long weekend and traders are not likely to want to be too short with geopolitical tensions as they presently are.
Silver has hardly hiccupped in recent weeks and is likely to move sharply up with gold, if that is tonight's direction, or otherwise hold its ground.
Consolidation is heartening for the precious metals adherents - the consensus on bullishness is compounding.


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rederob
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Thursday, September 09, 2004 - 06:11 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Greenspan spoke and gold climbed!
What a turnup.
At worst gold might dip near term to as low as $385 as Asian physical demand should intervene on dips.
However, with the DOW relatively weak, and volumes continuing to thin, another gold rally is not far off.


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goldbug
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Friday, September 10, 2004 - 12:01 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



The $US has weakened this morning against the Euro by the tune of 1/2 a cent. This would normally send the POG upwards....but guess what...its frozen in its tracks..just below the $400...i suspect there are some very large short positions just above this key level. ....any thoughts??

GB


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rederob
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Friday, September 10, 2004 - 12:43 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



goldbug
The cue comes from US POG, which has been flat.
Observing over several years suggests that very few people know what the impact of a low AUD would be on OZ gold shares.
In AUD terms POG has centred around $580 over the past fortnight, which is about AU$40/oz more than the average POG this year till August. That's why largely unhedged producers (definitely not LHG) will be travelling sweetly for the moment regardless of market prices.
The recent pullback to below US$400 seems to be good news in that the cycle of higher lows has built nicely over the past 6 months.
While I have no doubt that gold will continue to climb, it is fair to say that US equities have been quite robust and Greenspan's spin on the US economy will stretch out POG's recovery in these traditional heady days for metals.


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keith_s
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Friday, September 10, 2004 - 06:21 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi rederob

Downtrend of POG until 7 Oct 2004 for the time being, what do you suggest?


k_s


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rederob
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Friday, September 10, 2004 - 07:01 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Keith
I hold the following gold stocks:
CRS
DIO
EQI
KCN
OXR
Plus Macmin for silver exposure.
Most I have held for around 2 years and added to on dips.
EQI and KCN give good dividends.
My suggestion is to choose a good gold stock and go long.
It would take a miracle for the US economy to NOT stumble badly within the next few years and possibly have a very heavy fall.
There are few equities that will survive and prosper during the long northern winter - amongst them are gold and silver shares.
Unfortunately our best silver exposure is via BHP with its world class Cannington mine in Nth Qld. But I have chosen Macmin as it has lots of potential and would more readily double in price than BHP (in fact Macmin has previously touched 26cents whereas BHP is a long way from $25).
Good luck in your endeavours.


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keith_s
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Friday, September 10, 2004 - 08:22 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Rederob

The prediction about POG was still from Asia, it also mentioned that DJIA would move downward from around 24 Sep to 7 Oct 2004, again what do you suggest to buy if it would happend?

k_s


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rederob
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Friday, September 10, 2004 - 08:37 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Keith
This forum is not for advising others to buy particular stocks.
Instead the information should be used as a basis for considering your investment preferences/style and undertaking your own research on what is thrown up.
My present favourite is DIO:


As you can see, it enjoyed better times. However, it moved from an "explorer" to a "producer" in April this year and prices are better in AUD terms now than then.
An entry price at or below 8cents may be possible if POG falls some more.
Happy researching


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keith_s
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Friday, September 10, 2004 - 08:55 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Rederob

Thank you very much for the suggestion.

K_s


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rederob
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Saturday, September 11, 2004 - 10:02 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



POG slightly up week-on-week.
Holding over $400 is a nice psychological position, but a break over $410 is needed to kick the precious metal into gear.
In AUD terms gold has danced around $580, closing this week at AU$577.



The chart action suggests another few days of increases is ahead as part of its typical 3-week rally. Coming of a $395 base this time means a peak above $420 is possible early October.


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rederob
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Wednesday, September 15, 2004 - 08:40 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Although POG has again risen in the US, our AUD price has slipped back a touch.
Spot gold presently US$405 and euro$330, but only AU$578/oz.
Silver is stuck under US$6.20 and not being influenced by gold price movements.
With the DOW going nowhere and oil prices steadier, gold is ratcheting slowly higher.
I am loathe to rename the thread "POG breakout alert" lest it follows SGW's theme.


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ingot54
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Monday, September 20, 2004 - 11:14 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Fickle though its price may be, gold will always represent, for me, the ultimate in secure investment. No other commodity has withstood the test of time in the way gold is doing. That's why gold attracts attention wherever/whenever that four-letter word is spoken/heard.

As one who has gained from this thread and not contributed in return, I offer this link from this morning's Netwealth Daily Newsletter.

http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2004/09/19/1095532176778.html

Rumours come and go, but when the chips are down, what would you rather have in your basement? Microsoft shares? BHP? Or common garden gold bullion? Gold for tea? Gold for me!


Ivan

Disillusionment with yourself must precede Enlightenment.Vernan Taylor

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rederob
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Wednesday, September 22, 2004 - 06:41 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Spot gold encouragingly up overnight in tandem with interest rate hike - an event many analysts discounted some months ago.
Minor increases to POG in Oz dollar terms, with the price slightly over $581/oz.
Percentage-wise silver scored a tad better and this morning sits at AU$9.01/oz.
POG's recent consolidation and close above longer term moving averages is clearly a positive sign, but where's that much needed breakout, ask the gold bulls.


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rederob
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Sunday, September 26, 2004 - 11:51 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Kingsgate (KCN) suffered this week on views its hedge position could affect it similarly to SGW.
KCN at 30 June had a negative mark to market of about US$20m on its hedge book (eg 235kozs gold puts at Estimated Realisable Net Price {ENRP} of US$303).
The details of KCN's hedging is best read from its last quarterly report, but it must be remembered that not all hedging is bad. For example, KCN has some puts at AUD$570 which are ballpark with POG in the AU$565-$585 range over recent months.
Most importantly, though, is that KCN has over US$40m in the bank and no debt.
Add to this the fact that KCN clears around US$200 from each ounce mined and the comparisons with SGW are totally nonsensical - SGW was actually producing gold at a loss for much of last year.
I hold KCN as much for its dividends as its potential upside from POG increases - 10cents in April and 12cents div coming in October - not bad for a share wallowing around $3.







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archer
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Sunday, September 26, 2004 - 02:09 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi rederob
I'd appreciate your F/A view of CRS if you have one
Just a short summary would be fine
Thanks
---Archer---

 
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