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Trade Trends with Bollonger Bands and Twiggs Money Flow

Archive through October 07, 2004

Chart Forum » Gold & Precious Metals » GOLD-Anyone for tea? » Archive through October 07, 2004

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rederob
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Post Number: 340
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Sunday, September 26, 2004 - 04:03 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



archer
It's all good....CRS is in great shape:
Simplified hedge book of only 120kozs locked in to AUD POG at flat forward of $587/oz (POG presently around $580).
EPS of 4.5cps and ff 1cent div in October (I note Commsec info is not accurate).
Cash cost of AU$375 going forward gives profit of around $200/oz for anticipated 220-250kozs mined over next year.
AU$7m for exploration and $7m for St Patrick's reef development will be met from cashflow.
Excellent leverage to any POG rise and a definite add whenever share price falls into low 40cent range.
No sovereign risk.
On gold generally, we are due for a breakout after a solid period of consolidation.
$400/oz is now locked in as the base price, with little downside risk unless USD rallies to new highs.
However, with Diwali approaching and strong physical buying from Asia and India in particular (despite high prices) any dips will be counteracted by good buying support.
I have a sneaking suspicion that funds are concentrating their efforts on oil for the while, but when supplies on that front stabilise we should see them launch aggressively into gold (and silver).


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archer
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Monday, September 27, 2004 - 07:43 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Thanks for the info rederob-much appreciated
Looks like they had some good news today as well







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archer
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Tuesday, September 28, 2004 - 09:58 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



The next leg up in this bull in gold
--------
http://www.amtddj.inlumen.com/bin/djstory?StoryId=Cqvy:WaebqLqWmde2mtG
-----
DJ UK PRESS: Pressure Grows On G7 To Agree Dlr Devaluation

09/26/2004
Dow Jones News Services
(Copyright 2004 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.)



LONDON (Dow Jones)--U.S. President George Bush is being urged to signal a dollar devaluation of up to 20% to rebalance the global economy ahead of Friday's Group of Seven and International Monetary Fund meetings in Washington, the U.K.'s The Business newspaper reported.

Senior U.S. administration officials in Washington have over the past few days tried to influence the White House and U.S. Treasury to put pressure on the G7 to agree to a dollar depreciation in its final statement, the newspaper said.

Recent data have shown the U.S. current account and trade deficits running at record levels, and economists have said a dollar depreciation is needed to rein these in.

The euro was quoted at $1.2260 in late New York trade Friday, compared with $1.2273 on Thursday. The dollar was fetching Y110.64 versus Y110.63, and CHF1.2624 versus CHF1.2598. The pound was trading at $1.8041, up from $1.7982.

The G7 will also call on the world's oil producers to take further action to bring down prices, The Sunday Times reported. Crude oil reached almost $49 a barrel in New York Friday, amid continued concerns that high energy costs will sap global growth.

Spurring economic growth will be high on the agenda at the meetings of G7 finance ministers and central bankers next week, U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow said Friday.

"The promotion of economic freedom, opportunity and growth throughout the world will be a key topic," he said in a statement in New York City.

G7 officials meeting in Washington next week will be representing Canada, Italy, France, Germany, Japan, the U.K. and the U.S. Officials from China will also be present.

-By Neil Keane; Dow Jones Newswires; +44-20-7842-9495; neil.keane@dowjones.com


(END) Dow Jones Newswires

09-26-04 0623ET


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rederob
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Tuesday, September 28, 2004 - 05:36 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



archer
Today's spot price has climbed consistently to be now hovering over $410.
Typically this indicates a kickstart to tonight's futures, so with any follow through a break over $415 will occur.
Given weakness in overseas bourses in recent days, and oil breaking over US$50/bbl for the first time, that most wonderful sentiment of fear could set in and send funds in search of value, safe havens, AND GOLD!!!.

One could draw a neat pennant formation in the above chart (my woeful IT skills lack this capacity), to see that a breakout is now due.
Given the 2year ma cruising steadily northward, and the past 4months hitting higher lows, an upside breakout seems inevitable.
Should this happen, we will see solid physical buying support heading into year's end to maintain the price momentum.
Silver is looking for some guidance before bolting into the stratosphere (says he hopefully!).
By the way, was almost prophetic to ask about CRS and then get the great announcement on its drilling program. CRS will continue to be a great "value buy" in its present price range.


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archer
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Wednesday, September 29, 2004 - 09:28 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Looks like the Argentinians have learnt a lesson from their
paper money experiment
-----------------
UPDATE 1-Argentina cenbank ups gold reserves to 55.1 tonnes
LONDON, Sept 28 (Reuters) - Argentina's central bank bought more gold in July and August, taking its gold reserves up to 1.77 million troy ounces by the end of August, or 55.1 tonnes, according to data on the bank's website.

The bank confirmed in August that it had bought 42 tonnes of gold in the first half of 2004 to diversify its reserves after the end of the peso's one-to-one peg against the dollar in early 2002.

The bank's website showed that gold reserves were at 1.72 million ounces (53.5 tonnes) in July and 1.37 million ounces (42.6 tonnes) in June.

Spot gold was trading at $410.25/411.00 by 0941 GMT, compared with $408.70/409.50 late in New York on Monday.

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=topNews&storyID=6351310


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rederob
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Wednesday, September 29, 2004 - 04:58 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



archer
Given the lift in POG and CRS's simplified hedge book, the below chart is indicative of this stock's upside - certainly a lot of room left on the technical side:



With recent announcements, particularly today's greenfields site discovery, we might not see CRS trading below 50cents again unless the bottom falls out of the gold market.


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rederob
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Thursday, September 30, 2004 - 07:53 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Gold consolidating nicely overnight, and spot prices holding this morning around $413/oz
In AUD terms there is little movement with POG @ $576.
Silver doing a bit better, propelled by copper prices approaching record highs overnight - spot at US$6.65 and AU$9.27.
As the greenback was unchanged overnight and the DOW rose, POG's steady climb is strongly encouraging of an upside breakout on any adverse news - loathe to say another terrorist attack.
POG and oil have been moving in tandem in this past week so will be interesting to see what happens while oil prices stabilise over US$45/bbl.


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rederob
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Friday, October 01, 2004 - 06:11 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Big night for all the metals, so if you have BHP, LHG or anything in between, your week will end nicely:






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goldbug
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Friday, October 01, 2004 - 06:20 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



and this is just the start......


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rederob
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Saturday, October 02, 2004 - 10:11 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



True, goldbug.
Open interest increased markedly last night for both gold and silver - meaning more long positions are being established.
But the precious metals ended unchanged.



Any weakness from the greenback will be pounced on and spur gold above early year record highs.
When this happens the chartists may turn to tea leaves for greater certainty of forecast.
I would implore them only to use the most exquisite tea, golden flowery orange pekoe, poured into a gold decorated Royal Albert fine bone china teacup, for best results.


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rederob
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Saturday, October 02, 2004 - 10:23 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



My favourite equivolume chart this week:



To borrow from the now toothless tiger - "breakout alert"!!


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vermante
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Sunday, October 03, 2004 - 08:59 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Rederob,

Re-BSG - The company has recently sold its 50% interest in the Roseby downs copper project to URL . BSG share holders will receive 379 URL shares for every 1000 BSG shares. The option strike price which expires 31/12/04 has been reduced from .40 cts to 34.3 cents. The option is now in the money and a nice source of funding for development of its high grade gold/silver mines. The deal awaits shareholder approval at a meeting in 4-5 weeks.Demand for the shares and option should remain strong.

Cheers

Vermante

Note - I own BSG options


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vermante
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Monday, October 04, 2004 - 07:12 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Interesting reading for Gold Bugs

Extract "Gold is on the move" Kitco.com


According to the info we just read above China is serious enough about expanding the gold market by electing a gold mining professional & geologist to the second highest political office in the country. That info definitely has long term very positive consequences for a higher & stronger gold market.

And what other positive gold news is coming out of China?



"Without waiting for Beijing's approval, banks in Guangzhou and several other mainland cities have begun retailing gold bars to investors eager to seek alternatives to China's relatively low interest rate returns and battered stock markets."

"Mainland retail investors, who have long held gold in special esteem, have responded by flocking to banks in such numbers that one of them had to keep its doors open after office hours."

"According to the Guangzhou-based Yangcheng Evening News, the city's residents flocked to buy the precious metal after local branches of China Merchants Bank set up counters to sell gold bars to individuals a week ago."
"At one bank, the queue of would-be buyers was so long that the bank was forced to extend its opening hours." Olivia Chung, thestandard.com, 9-30-2004



Now keep in mind that the text you just read above is taken from a Chinese news site & did not originate in the "west." And are you beginning to get a big picture why we believe the long term fundamentals for gold are increasing exponentially?
And China alone with its growing gold market & growing demand is reason enough to begin investing in gold & silver stocks.


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archer
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Monday, October 04, 2004 - 07:54 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Heres my view rederob
You can see why there is resistance at current levels
Also see the inverted H+S which has been broken
The H+S has excellent symmetry and a 13 cent head which
added to the 51 cent break measures to 64 cents
64 cents breaks the large D/T line setting up a target
of 99-101c
Often after a break of a H+S price will come back to
the neckline currently about 51 cents
I believe gold is setting up to get slammed again as the
commercials have added a heap of short positions
I expect negative gold news this week
If this coincides with CRS coming back to test the neckline
i believe i'll add it to my portfolio
If this dip plays out as i expect i will use it to put on my
"FULL METALS JACKET" {;-)
CRS


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vermante
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Monday, October 04, 2004 - 09:30 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Arthur

Similar thoughts-

Long Term trend line break- Short Term Trend up - Gold trend up

Exit if up trend line broken or Gold dips below $U.S. 400




Cheers

Vermante


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rederob
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Monday, October 04, 2004 - 10:04 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Guys
Gold has dipped against a stronger greenback tonight.
Plus a chance for profit taking from last week's nice rise.
Consolidation over $410 is needed to keep the present rally intact.
Expect physical buyers to come in strongly on any dips under $410.
If that fails, then put gold on the backburner for a few weeks.
CRS should still hold above 50cents unless POG breaks $400.
Gold is a long term play, so I don't take too much notice of a few day's action.
The writing is on the wall for the US dollar.
Just a matter of time.....


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ingot54
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Tuesday, October 05, 2004 - 01:46 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi folks

POG US$411.90 half hour ago, now US$413.10 - possible rally.

Would like unbiased comment on this stock,(G.O.L.D.), which I found by chance tonight. I would like to know if this is :
a) a safe way to invest in gold
b) a good stock to trade using leveraged means (ie margin loan)
c) better left alone


GOLD


Have been following some interesting articles about possible future movement of gold/gold stocks, on a well-known site. They advocate stocks which are largely unhedged. How does one know this without going to every company web page in the materials sector?

The above stock appeals because ownership gives one tenth of an ounce of gold per share.

One question - when POG rises, why does price of small explorers/miners rise disproportionately faster? (Not always, but always intrigues me).

I pose the question on this thread as most of those who post seem to have well-established knowledge in dealing with this metal.

Cheers

Ivan


"That's Life" does not explain anything!!


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rederob
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Tuesday, October 05, 2004 - 07:43 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



ingot
I have no view on GOLD that would help you.
True goldbugs own the physical metal and have direct access to it rather than via a security - that might just work for them.
As for hedging, there is no answer apart from doing the hard yards - those that gambled on SGW did not care to read to deeply the company's exceptionally complicated hedge positions.
Finally, when POG varies markedly in price I have found no evidence that markets/equities react sanely to such movements.
Take Lihir for example. Massive volumes continue to change hands yet even the company has no expectation that this financial year will be particularly good: Lihir will improve considerably when its power plant is completed, but that's just one of many cost factors - LHG's hedge position is also relatively poor short term.
On the junior side of the equation, look at Legend (LEG): Rose dramatically on great announcement, but has now lost most of those gains. But LEG is an explorer, not a miner, so its price will fluctuate wildly on any new find, and not consolidate until transmogrified.
In the latter regard, look at DIO.
All the best.


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vermante
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Tuesday, October 05, 2004 - 08:12 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Ingot,

To add to Rederob's comments- There is no easy way.Similar to any other profession one has to put in the hard yakka to succeed

As for the POG - despite the enthusiastic comments of the gold bugs (that includes myself) the reality is that POG may escalate , it may not. The best approach is to CONTROL RISK , no matter which vehicle(gold bars , gold coins, gold shares ) use choose to profit from.

Cheers

Vermante


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ingot54
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Tuesday, October 05, 2004 - 10:37 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Thanks folks.

Becomes a bit heady as one reads about POG, Asian (read : Chinese) demand, falling supply, weak US economy and weak US$, Central Banks reversing their sell positions on physical gold, and on ... and on ...

No place for the unlearned, or faint hearted , or foolish.

Best is to tread carefully, methinks.

A lot of homework to be done. I have a feeling that small explorers/producers whose cost of production are <US$200/oz may benefit first from any apocalyptic movement in world economics. But ... I won't put my money down ... yet!

Keep posting guys - have been following your thread for some time. Thanks for sharing.

Ivan


"That's Life" does not explain anything!!


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rederob
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Tuesday, October 05, 2004 - 07:34 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



ingot
You probably have read about the overarching themes on gold - Central Bank dishoarding, declining value in greenback, supply not matching demand..... and a lot more.
Goldbugs are convinced that in the longer term gold will be significantly more valuable than today (and silver too).
The many bits and pieces supporting gold's price rises are regularly trodden on by greenback strength, which is the primary driver of POG's downside moves.
Given that we have had 4 years of POG increases, and the principal drivers of POG remain firmly in place, I find it difficult to conceive that gold cannot continue (albeit slowly, at worst) to rise in price over coming years.
The less patient want to profit immediately, so you must do your homework to pick the near-term winners: unhedged, large reserves at good grades, nil or minimal debt, proven track record, low sovereign risk, high potential eps (minimal dilution from options) AND A CHART HISTORY SHOWING STRONG PERCENTAGE SWINGS.
Unless you are high risk tolerant, go for miners rather than explorers.
Have fun


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archer
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Thursday, October 07, 2004 - 11:18 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Heres the post that started this thread almost 2 years ago
For some reason i can only post it sideways now which does
not make much sense.To see it properly go here
http://www.incrediblecharts.com/userscripts/forums/show.plx?tpc=6&post=8018#POST8018
Anyway the point was to show the outstanding cup+handle
You will need to tilt left(:>

<<See next post - Colin>>

On a breakout this pattern measured to about 410 which was
fullfilled
Now to a current chart and you can see the old C+H pattern
(circled)has been dwarfed by a larger one that would
target 560-580 if broken
gold
Heres an article that speculates on what could cause a move
like that in my opinion
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/phillips/phillips100604.html

(Message edited by colin_twiggs on October 07, 2004)


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colin_twiggs
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Thursday, October 07, 2004 - 11:31 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Archer

Compress to a width of 651 pixels and the chart image will be accepted. To do this with MS Paint, select Image >> Stretch >> Horizontal and enter 80% (651/800 pixels).

Regards
Colin

gold_archer

(Message edited by colin_twiggs on October 07, 2004)


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archer
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Thursday, October 07, 2004 - 11:55 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Yes i understand that colin but the compress makes the charts look crappy and was wondering why not 800x651
as most charts are wider than they are tall







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colin_twiggs
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Thursday, October 07, 2004 - 01:26 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Archer

The reason is that the image is then wider than the page and readers have to scroll to the right to view any post in that thread.

The image doesn't look as good but the only other solution is to save as a different image size.

Regards
Colin

 
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